From                   27th September, 2006, Board 6

                                          Theme                Counting the Distribution

                                          Difficulty            * * * 

                                          Dlr East              E-W Vul

West leads the Diamond Two, a "3rd or 5th" lead, and the first few tricks are as follows:

           East cashes the K♦ and the A♦

           Shift to the Club Seven, West's Jack forcing Dummy's Ace

           Finesse of the Q♥, East playing the Two and West the Four. 

           Q♠ run around to East's King

           Club Six to Declarer's King, West playing the 4

           Spade to the Ace

Now you are at the crossroads, and must decide whether to attempt to cash a Spade (pitching a Club), before repeating the Heart finesse ... or whether to play a Heart immediately, hoping that Hearts are 2-2 and that Dummy's Heart Nine will be an entry back to the board.  Which is it to be?

SOLUTION

What clues do we have?  Surely West's Diamond was a fifth best lead, otherwise West started with three, and East with six, and East would no doubt have rebid the Diamonds in that case.

For it to be right to cash the Spade trick first, West must have started with 3 Spades, 1 Heart (if not, the other line also works), 5 Diamonds, and therefore 4 Clubs.  For it to be right to play on Hearts first, West must have started with 2 Hearts, and 2 or 4 Spades, in other words he can be 2-2-5-4 or 4-2-5-2.  The latter seems unlikely, it would give East 2-2-4-5 and 15 HCP's, which most people would open 1NT.

So, it looks like Declarer must choose between West having started with 3-1-5-4 (cash a Spade first) or 2-2-5-4 (play a Heart first).  Which is more consistent with the bidding?  Surely the latter, wouldn't West have thrown in a preemptive 3♦ if he had 5-card support and shortness in the opponents' suit?  We think so!

As expected, the winning line is to play a Heart to the Ace, cross back on a Heart, and ditch the Club loser on a winning Spade.

Keys to Success

   - Deducing, from the opening lead and East's failure to rebid 2♦, that West has 5 Diamonds and

     East 4.

   - Deducing, from East's failure to open 1NT, that East was more likely to have ♣xxx than ♣Qxxxx

   - Concluding that East was 4-2-4-3 and playing accordingly

Postscript

You may have noticed that we neglected to mention West's play to the first round of Spades.  Some players habitually give count in these situations, and that would have been a complete giveaway, at least it would have been if you really trust West's signaling.  Other players habitually give false count, either just for the heck of it, or because their Partner is never paying attention anyway.  And others just play the Spade nearest their left thumb.  In short, if you are paying attention to their count carding, it pays to know their proclivities.