From                   13th June, 2007, Board 32

                                          Theme                Playing the Percentages

                                          Difficulty            * * * *

                                          Dlr East             E-W Vul         Hands Rotated

                                                                                            for Convenience

After a Texas and Roman Key Card auction (1430 responses), 6♠ is reached from the short hand.  West leads the J♣, which upon inquiry is a “standard” lead (no coded Tens and Nines, in other words).

One possibility is to play low from the board at Trick One, hoping that West has the King.  If so, we are home, but if East has the King then the contract’s success will come down to not losing a trump trick.  Is there anything better?

SOLUTION

We think that it is unlikely that West has the K♣, though it’s certainly possible.  Surely a better line of play is to jump up with the A♣ and try to establish the Diamonds for a second Club pitch.  Is it possible to set up the Diamonds and get the Club pitch in time, even if there is a Spade to be lost?  Yes, but only with careful timing, and, of course, they must be 4-3.  Win the A♣, unblock the K♦, cross to the K♠, cash the A♦ (pitching a Club), and ruff a Diamond on the board with the Jack.  Let’s assume that both defenders have followed to 3 rounds of Diamonds.  Now cash the A♠, cross to the A♥, and lead a 4^th round of Diamonds.  At this point, if trumps were 3-1, and if West has the outstanding Queen, then he cannot ruff in, as Dummy’s Club will go away.  If East has the outstanding Q♠ then the contract makes if he also has the 4^th Diamond.  Yes, Setting up the Diamonds looks more promising than hoping for West to have underled the K♣, but it all becomes moot on the third round of Diamonds, when West shows out.

Time to change plan!  To recap, we win the A♣ at Trick One, cash K♦, cross to the K♠, cash A♦ (pitching a Club), and when we lead a third Diamond West pitches a Club.  Now we cannot establish the Diamonds and must rely on picking up the Spades.  Normally, we play for the drop when we are missing 4 to the Queen, it’s a slight favorite (52% to 48%).  But those odds changed when West showed out in Diamonds.  That Diamond shortage has substantially shifted the odds in favor of the finesse, there’s more room in the West hand for that Queen than there is in the Diamond-laden East hand.  Now the finesse is the favorite by 63% to 37%, pretty good odds!  This is the full deal:

Keys to Success

   - Concluding that setting up the Diamonds was the best way to avoid a Club loser

   - Taking the Spade finesse because the layout of the Diamond suit has changed the odds