From                 12th July, 2006, Board 21

                                          Theme               Playing the Percentages

                                          Difficulty           * * *

                                          Dlr East            E-W Vul            Hands Rotated

                                                                                              for Convenience

West leads the 8♠, and thankfully the Queen holds.  You cross to the A♣, and West shows out.  Thanks to that bad Club break you are now reduced to just 8 tricks.  Where do you find the ninth trick?

Clearly, you won't have time to set up a Diamond trick, they'll get their Spades going first.  It's going to come down to the Heart suit.  You can cash them from the top, hoping that the Jack comes down ... or you can play one defender or the other for having four (or more) to the Jack, and play accordingly.  What is your choice? 

SOLUTION

In the absence of other information, playing for the drop, or finessing one way or the other, is pretty much an equal bet.  But things are not equal!  North has 5 Clubs, and South has none.  On the other hand, South may well have 5 or 6 Spades.  On balance, however, it seems that South has more black cards than North, most likely by 8 to 5, and that should be enough evidence for you to cash the A♥, and finesse Dummy's Nine. 

Key to Success

   - Realizing that the odds have changed in the Heart suit when the Clubs break 5-0