From                  3rd May, 2006, Board 7

                                          Theme               Playing the Percentages

                                          Difficulty           * * 

                                          Dlr East             Both Vul           Hands Rotated

                                                                                               for Convenience

West leads the 2♥.

You did well to bid only 2♦ at your second turn, now how do you take advantage of your good fortune?  The opening lead has put you in Dummy for the one and only time.  What is the best way to use this entry?

SOLUTION

Clearly, the entry must be used for a Club finesse or for a Diamond finesse.  But which one?  There’s no evidence to suggest that one finesse is more likely to succeed than the other one, but there is an excellent reason to take the Club finesse instead of the Diamond finesse.  If the Club finesse loses, there is still a decent chance (about 27%) that the Q♦ will come down doubleton. 

But, if instead, we take the losing Diamond finesse, then our chances of playing that Club suit out of our hand for two winners is quite slim … we’ll lay down the A♣, hoping for a singleton Jack or King somewhere … if that doesn’t work, we’ll lead a low Club (hoping for doubleton King) or Q♣ (hoping for doubleton Jack) … these plays are equal in their likelihood of success, and the overall chance of success works out to a mere 9%.

	♠ J982 ♥ A985 ♦ 63 ♣ T83
♠ AQ5 ♥ K632 ♦ Q7 ♣ J954	North    West           East            South	♠ KT3 ♥ QJ74 ♦ T84 ♣ K72
	♠ 754 ♥ T ♦ AKJ952 ♣ AQ6

Taking the Club finesse results in 9 tricks on this layout, but taking the Diamond finesse brings in a mere 7 tricks.

Keys to Success

   - Using Dummy's only entry to take the right finesse.