Law of Total Tricks

 

Simply stated, the Law of Total Tricks tells us that there is a direct correlation between total trumps and total tricks.  For example, if we have a 9-card Spade fit, and they have a 9-card Heart fit, that's 18 trumps, and the total number of available tricks is predicted to be 18 also.  It could be 9 tricks each, or 10 for us and 8 for them, or whatever.  The Law is far from infallible, but it's a useful benchmark, and it reminds us what we already knew, namely that the more trumps we have, the more we'll bid.  Going a step further, we'd also say that many (actually most) 3-level competitive bidding situations are based more on the number of trumps than they are on the number of HCP's.  Perhaps these examples will clarify things.

 

 

17th January, 2007           Board 27      Dealer South       None Vul

 

 

 Perhaps East could have stretched to a 1♠ bid over 1♥, he does have a decent suit with shortness in the enemy Hearts.  But Pass was reasonable, and now East must decide whether to come in over 4♥.  We’d say “Yes!”  Partner’s Double showed some extra values and interest in the unbid suits, so Spades should certainly be playable.

 

We have no idea what contracts are making here, but it’s a fact of bridge life that it is so often right to bid 4♠ over their 4♥.  Let’s look at the Total Trick situation … we have 8 or 9 trumps … the opponents surely have 10 maybe 11 (Partner’s Double suggests no more than two Hearts), so the total trumps are in the 18-20 range.  Assuming that the Law of Total Tricks stands up on this deal, and even assuming the worst case of only 18 total trumps, the only time when it will be wrong to bid 4♠ is when both sides can make precisely 9 tricks.  So, provided that we do not expect 4♠ to be down three, which seems unlikely, it’s surely worth bidding 4♠.

 

On the actual board, there were 8 Spades and 11 Hearts.  In 4♠ doubled, E-W would escape for down two, a good save against their game.  As for N-S, they can make 11 tricks in Hearts, but at least our 4♠ bid put them to the test of whether to double or bid 5♥.

 

The moral of the story is that when there is an abundance of total trumps (let’s say 18 or more), and when the points are fairly equally divided, it usually pays to push on to 4♠ over the opponents’ 4♥.

 

 

24th May, 2006                 Board 12       Dealer West        N-S Vul

 

 

The Law of Total Tricks certainly suggests bidding one more time … E-W have a 10-card fit, N-S presumably have an 8-card fit … that’s 18 total trumps, so the expectation is 18 total tricks … if N-S can make 9 of them, then 4♦ (even doubled) is a good save for down one … if N-S can only make 8, then 4♦ is making.  We would find this logic compelling enough to bid 4♦ here.

 

Well, the Law of Total Tricks is not a great success on this hand.  It turns out that there are, indeed, 18 total trumps, but there are only 17 total tricks, and that both 3♠ and 4♦ are down one.  Oh, well!

 

 

26th July, 2006                  Board 5      Dealer North       N-S Vul

 

 

Let's suppose that we make the seemingly obvious call of 3♥.  Do we expect to be allowed to play it there?  Fat chance!  Our opponents always seem to compete to 3♠ in these situations.  If they do, we might find ourselves going through this Total Tricks analysis:

  - They probably have 9 trumps (no guarantees)

  - We have 9 or 10 trumps

  - It looks as if there are likely to be 18+ total trumps, so 18+ total tricks

  - If they can make 9 tricks in Spades (or fewer) then we would be better off bidding 4♥ here.

 

At this point in the analysis, we should no doubt be wondering why we didn't bid 4♥ directly over their 2♠!  Yes, forget the "obvious" call of 3♥ and bid 4♥ instead ... put the opponents to the guess.

 

On the actual hand, 4♥ turns out to be a poor contract, but it makes, thanks to 2 working finesses.  Lucky?  Absolutely not! ... if the cards had been less favorable, 4♥ going down would have been a good save against 3♠.

 

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