|
Hand Evaluation
Now here's an ambitious and wide-ranging topic! We go beyond counting up our HCP's, and look more deeply ... at distribution, high-card structure, intermediate cards, positional considerations, etc.
5th May, 2010 None Vul
After South invites game, would you accept with the North hand? Those 13 HCP are right in the middle of the 12-14 range for the 1NT rebid. Which way would you go? Of course, that square shape is a negative, but we would say that this is more than outweighed by those three lovely Tens, each of which is working in conjunction with other honors. So, we’d bid 3NT and if you did likewise then you were rewarded when 3NT makes easily. If you are still not convinced by the power of Tens then we should point out that if you were to replace North’s three Tens with small cards then there are only 8 tricks available. As it is there are at least 10 tricks to be had!
2nd March, 2011 E-W Vul
Nowadays, most players are reasonably relaxed about opening 1NT with a 5-card major, but that South hand is just too good for a 15-17 1NT, don’t you think? The reasons are: - At the top end of the range … - … and there is a 5-card suit … - … and the hand is loaded with controls and devoid of wasted values … - … and that Heart Ten looks awfully useful!
That should be reason enough for South to open 1♥, planning to rebid 2NT if North responds 1♠.
6th April, 2011 E-W Vul
We suppose that most Souths will open this 1♦, their plan being to rebid 2NT if Partner bids 1♥. That is a sequence which shows 18-19 HCP. This hand is 18, but there are 18’s and then there are 18’s. Despite the 5-card suit, this particular 18 is remarkably poor, let us count the ways: - That doubleton ♥KQ is a serious minus … - … as is the equally ugly doubleton ♣KQ - Only one Ace (less than the fair share for an 18-count) - No working fillers (we don’t count that stranded ♠T which, most of the time, won’t figure in the play)
The bottom line is that if you treat this as an 18-count you will get too high … if you downgrade it to a 1NT opening you will go plus!
4th February, 2009 N-S Vul
East has shown 12-14 HCP, and we have 16 HCP. Give East a maximum and with 4 trumps and there’ll be a combined 30 HCP with a 9-card fit. Doesn’t that put E-W in the slam zone? Speaking in general terms, perhaps it does. But as 16-counts go, we’d categorize the West hand as quite abominable. In fact, some players will no doubt count up the HCP more than once, just to make sure that this uninspiring collection really does have 16. That ♣KQJ is especially dismal, the trumps are mediocre, and 5=3=2=3 is not a great shape (5=4=2=2 or 5=4=3=1 would offer more possibilities). All in all the hand is just not good enough.
4th June, 2008 Board 6 E-W Vul
At first glance, this might look like an automatic 3♠ bid, inviting game. But if we look a little deeper we can see a couple of plus points, enough, we think, to go straight to game. First of all, that K♥ can be upgraded, sitting as it is over the Heart bidder. Second, there is that nice fit with Partner’s Club suit. Of course, the Diamond suit looks dangerous, what can we deduce about that suit? We’d say it is likely that Partner is short in that suit. How so? Well, Partner has bid Clubs and Spades, and it’s reasonable to presume that he might well have 3 or 4 Hearts also (we are short and North did not raise). So, perhaps Diamonds won’t be such a problem after all.
Are we perhaps guilty of bidding Partner’s hand for him? After all, if he is short in Diamonds, he will be quite aware of the fact. Yes, but he won’t be aware of our other plus values. In fact, his hand is: ♠ AT42 ♥ AQ43 ♦ T ♣ Q765 If we bid a pusillanimous 3♠, will it be obvious that Partner should go to game with this hand? We don’t think so. Counterbalancing the lovely Diamond singleton is a minimum hand, a useless-looking Q♥, and a rotten Club suit. Looks like a Pass to us.
9th May, 2007 Board 20 Both Vul
Here we show you both hands and ask you the question “Which of the N-S protagonists overbid their hand and was responsible for landing their side in the abominable 6♥ contract?”
North South ♠ 9732 ♠ A865 ♥ AQT6 ♥ K852 ♦ AKJ ♦ Q4 ♣ 82 ♣ AKQ
West North East South Pass 1♦ Pass 1♥ Pass 2♥ Pass 2NT Pass 3♠ Pass 6♥ Pass Pass Pass
South’s 2NT bid was conventional asking Partner to describe her hand further, and the response said “4 trumps, good hand” (see also Board 3).
There are really just two bids to consider in answer to the question “How did N-S get so high?” Was 3♠ the culprit? Or was it 6♥? Cast your votes now.
Let’s start with North. Yes, she has 14 HCP’s, and yes, that is at the top end of her HCP range for a 2♥ bid. But what a mediocre 14-count it is! AKJ is a terrible waste of HCP’s, how much better the hand would be if a low Spade became a low Diamond. That would make 6♥ a great contract. And if two low Spades became low Diamonds then 7♥ would be a fine contract! But maybe with that hand South would have at least been tempted to rebid 3♥. So, Ms North, we think you overbid when you said you had a “good hand”.
But, in fairness to North, we should say that South also overbid. And for the same reasons! Look at that AKQ tripleton! That’s a huge amount of fire-power wasted on just three tricks. So much better if one of those Spades became a low Club (again this is enough to make the slam a good one).
The moral of the story is pretty clear. High-card strength in short suits is usually a detriment.
10th January, 2007 Board 16 E-W Vul
After a 1NT opening, an 8-count is sometimes enough to warrant an invitation, but not this time. As 8-counts go, this one ranks pretty low. No Aces, no Tens, and, perhaps worst of all, that KQ doubleton. High cards work best when they are in long suits and when they are also supported by some useful intermediate cards, but here our 8 HCP’s are supported by absolutely nothing. A clear Pass.
26th April, 2006 Board 26 Both Vul
What’s your plan on this one? Or, more to the point, is this hand worth forcing to game with? No, it’s not … it may be 12 HCPs, but a rather poor 12 HCPs, especially considering that square shape. When evaluating hands, you could do a lot worse than automatically to deduct one HCP whenever you have that 4-3-3-3 distribution.
Once you have decided that this is not game-forcing material, the plan should be to respond 1NT, and then to invite with 3♥ on the next round. And, yes, there is something to be said for inviting (at your second bid) with 2NT instead … but, there’s absolutely nothing to be said for unilaterally taking this one all the way to game.
3rd May, 2006 Board 11 None Vul
What do you open as East on this deal? You have a balanced 22 HCPs, which fits into the 22-24 range that requires a 2♣ opening followed by a 2NT rebid. But, we’ve been doing some bashing of those 4-3-3-3 hands lately … is this hand a candidate for downgrading to 21 based on its squareness? Well, by all means deduct something for that ugly shape, but then start adding back on for these plus factors: 3 Aces: it’s generally agreed that, in the 4-3-2-1 point count scale, Aces are somewhat undervalued. No Queens: it’s further agreed that Queens are overvalued, so add on a bit more for their absence. 2 Tens: Tens figure not at all in the HCP scale, so when we have a couple of them, with supporting high cards, that is another plus.
Anyway, after all this upgrading and downgrading, you’ll be back where you started, with a hand that is worth a 2♣ opening.
5th July, 2006 Board 4 Both Vul
Here are the West and East hands:
West East ♠ JT872 ♠ Q53 ♥ AT8 ♥ Q6432 ♦ 2 ♦ A85 ♣ KT85 ♣ J6
North opens 1♦, giving East the chance to make a vulnerable overcall of 1♥. Should he? We don't think so. Let's say East passes and now South bids 1♥. Over to West. Should he try 1♠? Well, we certainly would, though it's hard to fault a Pass. Just a minute! Why is it OK for West to bid with his 8-count and wrong for East to chirp in with his 9-count? There are several reasons: (a) West's trump suit has fillers, East's doesn't; (b) West also has useful looking fillers in the side-suits, East doesn't; (c) West's honors are all working with other cards, East honors are all in not so splendid isolation; (d) West has some shape, East doesn't.
Big difference in these two hands!
2nd August, 2006 Board 31 N-S Vul
16th August, 2006 Board 15 N-S Vul
East passed initially, but then doubled the second time around. Does that suggest a weaker hand than doubling immediately? Not necessarily. It seems likely that East is short in Spades, and that may well be the reason for his earlier Pass. Be that as it may, we can reasonably assume that Partner is at least 4-4 in the red suits, and our decision now is whether or not to bid 3♦.
It looks as if the opponents may have a 9-card fit and we have an 8-card fit. Total Trick analysis tells us that if they can make 9 tricks, we can probably make 8 tricks, a good save even if we are doubled. Not so good will be if they can make 10, we can make only 7, and we go for -300. It's also possible that their fit is only 8 cards, and that 3♣ and 3♦ are both going down. One more minus ... our trumps are very weak.
That's enough of the minuses, let's look at the plusses ... there are quite a few of them: - shortness in their suit; - Spade strength over their Spade strength; - Partner's likely Spade shortness is over their Spade shortness (we get to do the over-ruffing); - favorable vulnerability.
The ayes outvote the nays and our choice is to bid 3♦.
22nd November, 2006 Board 23 Both Vul
Perhaps we are getting old, but we would not overcall 2♦ with this hand. Yes, we have a 5-card suit and opening values, but let’s look at all the negatives: - we are vulnerable - only 5 Diamonds (a 6th would make it so much safer) - no fillers in our suit - miserable distribution - wasted values in Hearts - we’re likely to be on lead, so less reason to bid for the lead It doesn’t pay to play this game forever fearing the worst, boldness usually brings its rewards, but there is a time for caution and this appears to be one of them.
20th June, 2007 Board 28 N-S Vul
Did you bid 3♠ here? Perhaps you reckoned that there was safety at the 3-level, based on the 9-card fit. Well, minus 800 is not exactly our idea of safety, but that’s what happens to 3♠ doubled. Yes, really, it’s down four on a part-score hand! Let’s look beyond the lure of the non-vulnerable 9-card fit, and look at some reasons why we should hit the deck over 3♣: - We have a square shape … sure, it’s great to have a 9-card fit, but when the short hand has no ruffing values then it’s less of a bargain. - Our trumps are weak - Our Clubs look more promising on defense than they do on offense - The enemy high cards are concentrated in the North hand, and our unsupported K♦ bears an uncanny resemblance to a sitting duck. Perhaps we are influenced by having seen all four hands, but we seriously question whether 3♠ is such a good idea!
Boards 2, 5, 7, 21 and 29 (from December, 19th, 2007)
This week’s hands gave us no fewer than 5 instances where a “no trumpish” hand had cause to consider upgrading or downgrading out of its HCP range. Here they are:
Board 2 Board 5 Board 7 Board 21 Board 29 East East South North East ♠ T87 ♠ K72 ♠ AQ5 ♠ AJ ♠ J872 ♥ QT85 ♥ AJ ♥ Q75 ♥ QT73 ♥ QJ6 ♦ AJ ♦ Q54 ♦ AQ62 ♦ J6 ♦ AK8 ♣ AKT5 ♣ AT763 ♣ J95 ♣ AQT82 ♣ AK7
On Board 2, East has 14 HCP’s. Is it worth an upgrade to a 15-17 1NT? We like those three Tens, and we like the fact that we have more Aces than Queens. Anything not to like? Not really, it looks like an excellent candidate for upgrading.
On Board 5, East has another 14-count. Here the main plus point is the 5-card Club suit. On the minus card, the filler situation is somewhat meager, just the T♣. And the dangling Q♦ is another minus. All things considered we would not upgrade this one, but it would not take much improvement for us us to change our mind. For example, fortify those Clubs with the Nine and we would certainly open 1NT.
On Board 7, South has 15 HCP’s, but what a miserable collection! This is a hand with no redeeming features. It’s square, appallingly fillerless and quacky. And it has a dangling Queen. And it … well, we won’t beat this one to death, but we will say that, in our humble opinion, this is most certainly not a 15-17 1NT opening. In fact, this 15-count is further from a 1NT opening than those two 14-counts above. Many bridge players are quick to seize upon an excuse to upgrade their hand, and there’s something to be said for this optimistic approach. There’s less eagerness to downgrade, though, but, once in a while, it really is the prudent thing to do. This is such a case.
On Board 21, we are back to the more cheerful mode of upgrading. North has 14 HCP’s and we’ll look at the minuses first. That J♦ might be better employed if it were working with some other honors. How about the Q♥, is that a so-called “dangling Queen”? Not at all, it’s conjoined with a Ten, and has good playing potential. And on the plus side? A five-card suit and a couple of Tens, one of which is most usefully placed in our long suit. That’s enough for us to open 1NT.
Finally, on Board 29, East has 18 HCP’s. But what a terrible 18! It’s square, no Tens, no Nines even, and the weakest suit is also the longest suit. We suggest opening 1NT here.
© BES, Inc All Rights Reserved | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
