Hand Evaluation

 

Now here's an ambitious and wide-ranging topic!  We go beyond counting up our HCP's, and look more deeply ... at distribution, high-card structure, intermediate cards, positional considerations, etc.

 

 

9th May, 2007                    Board 20      Dealer West       Both Vul

 

Here we show you both hands and ask you the question “Which of the N-S protagonists overbid their hand and was responsible for landing their side in the abominable 6♥ contract?”

 

            North               South

            ♠ 9732             ♠ A865

            ♥ AQT6          ♥ K852

            ♦ AKJ             ♦ Q4

            ♣ 82                ♣ AKQ

 

West    North   East     South

Pass    1♦        Pass    1♥

Pass    2♥        Pass    2NT

Pass    3♠        Pass    6♥

Pass    Pass    Pass

 

South’s 2NT bid was conventional asking Partner to describe her hand further, and the response said “4 trumps, good hand” (see also Board 3).

 

There are really just two bids to consider in answer to the question “How did N-S get so high?”  Was 3♠ the culprit?  Or was it 6♥?  Cast your votes now.

 

Let’s start with North.  Yes, she has 14 HCP’s, and yes, that is at the top end of her HCP range for a 2♥ bid.  But what a mediocre 14-count it is!  AKJ is a terrible waste of HCP’s, how much better the hand would be if a low Spade became a low Diamond.  That would make 6♥ a great contract.  And if two low Spades became low Diamonds then 7♥ would be a fine contract!  But maybe with that hand South would have at least been tempted to rebid 3♥.  So, Ms North, we think you overbid when you said you had a “good hand”.

 

But, in fairness to North, we should say that South also overbid.  And for the same reasons!  Look at that AKQ tripleton!  That’s a huge amount of fire-power wasted on just three tricks.  So much better if one of those Spades became a low Club (again this is enough to make the slam a good one).

 

The moral of the story is pretty clear.  High-card strength in short suits is usually a detriment.

 

10th January, 2007           Board 16      Dealer West       E-W Vul

 

 

After a 1NT opening, an 8-count is sometimes enough to warrant an invitation, but not this time.  As 8-counts go, this one ranks pretty low.  No Aces, no Tens, and, perhaps worst of all, that KQ doubleton.  High cards work best when they are in long suits and when they are also supported by some useful intermediate cards, but here our 8 HCP’s are supported by absolutely nothing.  A clear Pass.

 

 

26th April, 2006                Board 26       Dealer East        Both Vul

 

 

What’s your plan on this one?  Or, more to the point, is this hand worth forcing to game with?  No, it’s not … it may be 12 HCPs, but a rather poor 12 HCPs, especially considering that square shape.  When evaluating hands, you could do a lot worse than automatically to deduct one HCP whenever you have that 4-3-3-3 distribution.

 

Once you have decided that this is not game-forcing material, the plan should be to respond 1NT, and then to invite with 3♥ on the next round.  And, yes, there is something to be said for inviting (at your second bid) with 2NT instead … but, there’s absolutely nothing to be said for unilaterally taking this one all the way to game.

 

3rd May, 2006                   Board 11       Dealer South        None Vul

 

 

What do you open as East on this deal?  You have a balanced 22 HCPs, which fits into the 22-24 range that requires a 2♣ opening followed by a 2NT rebid.  But, we’ve been doing some bashing of those 4-3-3-3 hands lately … is this hand a candidate for downgrading to 21 based on its squareness?  Well, by all means deduct something for that ugly shape, but then start adding back on for these plus factors:

            3 Aces:  it’s generally agreed that, in the 4-3-2-1 point count scale, Aces are somewhat undervalued.

            No Queens:  it’s further agreed that Queens are overvalued, so add on a bit more for their absence.

            2 Tens:  Tens figure not at all in the HCP scale, so when we have a couple of them, with supporting

            high cards, that is another plus.

 

Anyway, after all this upgrading and downgrading, you’ll be back where you started, with a hand that is worth a 2♣ opening.

 

 

5th July, 2006                    Board  4     Dealer West    Both Vul

 

Here are the West and East hands:

 

                   West                            East

                   ♠ JT872                      ♠ Q53

                   ♥ AT8                         ♥ Q6432

                   ♦ 2                               ♦ A85

                   ♣ KT85                       ♣ J6

 

North opens 1♦, giving East the chance to make a vulnerable overcall of 1♥.  Should he?  We don't think so.  Let's say East passes and now South bids 1♥.  Over to West.  Should he try 1♠?  Well, we certainly would, though it's hard to fault a Pass.  Just a minute!  Why is it OK for West to bid with his 8-count and wrong for East to chirp in with his 9-count?  There are several reasons:

(a) West's trump suit has fillers, East's doesn't;

(b) West also has useful looking fillers in the side-suits, East doesn't;

(c) West's honors are all working with other cards, East honors are all in not so splendid isolation;

(d) West has some shape, East doesn't.

 

Big difference in these two hands!

 

 

2nd August, 2006              Board 31      Dealer South      N-S Vul

 

 

Our first bid of 2♣ was a cue-bid in support of Hearts, typically showing invitational values (say a good 9 to 11) or better.  Partner did not rise to the bait and bid just 2♥.  With our 13-count, a few more than we might have had, should we make one more try?  Absolutely not!  In fact, it’s really not even close … we don’t like all those Queens … the Q♦ in particular looks quite useless … only 3 trumps … no fillers to speak of.  This one is an easy Pass.

 

 

16th August, 2006             Board 15      Dealer South       N-S Vul

 

 

East passed initially, but then doubled the second time around.  Does that suggest a weaker hand than doubling immediately?  Not necessarily.  It seems likely that East is short in Spades, and that may well be the reason for his earlier Pass.  Be that as it may, we can reasonably assume that Partner is at least 4-4 in the red suits, and our decision now is whether or not to bid 3♦.

 

It looks as if the opponents may have a 9-card fit and we have an 8-card fit.  Total Trick analysis tells us that if they can make 9 tricks, we can probably make 8 tricks, a good save even if we are doubled.  Not so good will be if they can make 10, we can make only 7, and we go for -300.  It's also possible that their fit is only 8 cards, and that 3♣ and 3♦ are both going down.  One more minus ... our trumps are very weak.

 

That's enough of the minuses, let's look at the plusses ... there are quite a few of them:

  - shortness in their suit;

  - Spade strength over their Spade strength;

  - Partner's likely Spade shortness is over their Spade shortness (we get to do the over-ruffing);

  - favorable vulnerability.

 

The ayes outvote the nays and our choice is to bid 3♦.

 

 

22nd November, 2006      Board 23      Dealer South       Both Vul

 

 

Perhaps we are getting old, but we would not overcall 2♦ with this hand.  Yes, we have a 5-card suit and opening values, but let’s look at all the negatives:

-         we are vulnerable

-         only 5 Diamonds (a 6^th would make it so much safer)

-         no fillers in our suit

-         miserable distribution

-         wasted values in Hearts

-         we’re likely to be on lead, so less reason to bid for the lead

It doesn’t pay to play this game forever fearing the worst, boldness usually brings its rewards, but there is a time for caution and this appears to be one of them.

 

 

20th June, 2007                 Board 28      Dealer West       N-S Vul

 

 

Did you bid 3♠ here?  Perhaps you reckoned that there was safety at the 3-level, based on the 9-card fit.  Well, minus 800 is not exactly our idea of safety, but that’s what happens to 3♠ doubled.  Yes, really, it’s down four on a part-score hand!  Let’s look beyond the lure of the non-vulnerable 9-card fit, and look at some reasons why we should hit the deck over 3♣:

-         We have a square shape … sure, it’s great to have a 9-card fit, but when the short hand has no ruffing values then it’s less of a bargain.

-         Our trumps are weak

-         Our Clubs look more promising on defense than they do on offense

-         The enemy high cards are concentrated in the North hand, and our unsupported K♦ bears an uncanny resemblance to a sitting duck.

Perhaps we are influenced by having seen all four hands, but we seriously question whether 3♠ is such a good idea!

 

Boards 2, 5, 7, 21 and 29    (from December, 19th, 2007)

This week’s hands gave us no fewer than 5 instances where a “no trumpish” hand had cause to consider upgrading or downgrading out of its HCP range.  Here they are:

 

Board 2           Board 5           Board 7           Board 21         Board 29

East                 East                 South               North               East

♠ T87              ♠ K72              ♠ AQ5             ♠ AJ                ♠ J872

♥ QT85           ♥ AJ                ♥ Q75             ♥ QT73           ♥ QJ6

♦ AJ                ♦ Q54              ♦ AQ62           ♦ J6                 ♦ AK8

♣ AKT5          ♣ AT763         ♣ J95              ♣ AQT82        ♣ AK7

 

On Board 2, East has 14 HCP’s.  Is it worth an upgrade to a 15-17 1NT?  We like those three Tens, and we like the fact that we have more Aces than Queens.  Anything not to like?  Not really, it looks like an excellent candidate for upgrading.

 

On Board 5, East has another 14-count.  Here the main plus point is the 5-card Club suit.  On the minus card, the filler situation is somewhat meager, just the T♣.  And the dangling Q♦ is another minus.  All things considered we would not upgrade this one, but it would not take much improvement for us us to change our mind.  For example, fortify those Clubs with the Nine and we would certainly open 1NT.

 

On Board 7, South has 15 HCP’s, but what a miserable collection!  This is a hand with no redeeming features.  It’s square, appallingly fillerless and quacky.  And it has a dangling Queen.  And it … well, we won’t beat this one to death, but we will say that, in our humble opinion, this is most certainly not a 15-17 1NT opening.  In fact, this 15-count is further from a 1NT opening than those two 14-counts above.  Many bridge players are quick to seize upon an excuse to upgrade their hand, and there’s something to be said for this optimistic approach.  There’s less eagerness to downgrade, though, but, once in a while, it really is the prudent thing to do.  This is such a case.

 

On Board 21, we are back to the more cheerful mode of upgrading.  North has 14 HCP’s and we’ll look at the minuses first.  That J♦ might be better employed if it were working with some other honors.  How about the Q♥, is that a so-called “dangling Queen”?  Not at all, it’s conjoined with a Ten, and has good playing potential.  And on the plus side?  A five-card suit and a couple of Tens, one of which is most usefully placed in our long suit.  That’s enough for us to open 1NT.

 

Finally, on Board 29, East has 18 HCP’s.  But what a terrible 18!  It’s square, no Tens, no Nines even, and the weakest suit is also the longest suit.  We suggest opening 1NT here.

 

 

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