From                   22nd November, 2006, Board 5                  

                                          Difficulty            * * *                                          

                                          Dlr North           N-S Vul

West leads the Spade Four, and you see that Partner has got you dangerously high once again.  Dummy has two entries, and the opening lead makes us use one of them right away.  The question is "How do you use those two entries to best advantage?".

SOLUTION

The simple and obvious line is to take an immediate Heart finesse.  If that wins, we can cross back on a Spade and repeat the finesse.  This line works whenever East has Kx or Kxx of trumps, which is a 34% chance.  There's a small additional chance associated with this line of play ... if the Heart finesse loses, we can use the other entry to lead a Diamond towards our hand, picking up the suit for one loser whenever East has the singleton or doubleton Ace.  This is another 5% or so, but a shrewd West can diminish those odds by ducking the first Heart when holding Kxx (now Declarer will waste the second Dummy entry to take the doomed trump finesse).  Anyway, it looks to us as if the chances of success of this line are around 37%.

But it seems to us that it is better if we play on Diamonds at Trick Two.  If the King wins the first trick, we can play A♥ and J♥ and eventually use the second Dummy entry to lead another Diamond.  And if West's Ace takes our King, then we still have an entry to the board for a Heart finesse, hoping for Kx in the East hand.

We won't tire ourselves and our visitors with an exhaustive analysis on the odds of success for playing on Diamonds first.  But it does seem to us that we'd be better off giving ourselves two bites at the apple.  The first bite is the on-side A♦ (with 4-3 Diamonds, else they may get a ruff) and the second bite is the on-side doubleton K♥ ... yes, we know that West can disrupt the proceedings by brilliantly ducking with the A♦, but not many players are up to making that play.

Of course, it's also true that playing on Hearts right away also gives us two bites.  The two bites are the on-side K♥ and the doubleton on-side A♦ ... but, with 7 Diamonds out, that second bite is a long-shot, barely a nibble.  We are guessing that playing on Diamonds is the way to go.  It's certainly the way to go on the actual deal, but for somewhat unexpected reasons.  We win the Spade, lead a Diamond to the Ace, play A♥ then J♥ and an unexpected extra chance materializes.  Diamonds are 5-2, but the hand with only 2 trumps is also the one with the 2 Diamonds, so there is no ruff available.
 

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