From                   13th September, 2006, Board 26

                                          Theme                Matchpoint Decisions

                                          Difficulty            * * *

                                          Dlr East              Both Vul

West's 2♠ was Michaels, showing Hearts and a minor, and the minor turned out to be Clubs.

West leads the A♣, and East plays the 4.  West then shifts to the A♥ and then the Q♥, East following with the 4 and the 3.

West's bidding shows at least 5-5 distribution.  Anything to be deduced from East's play at Trick One?  When Partner leads the Ace of a side-suit, and Dummy goes down with the Queen, it's customary for third-hand to give count.  If we can rely on East to be doing this, then clearly East has 3, and West is 5-6 in his suits (which his aggressive bidding implies, anyway).

Working on the assumption that West is 1-5-1-6 or 0-5-2-6 or 2-5-0-6, is there any line of play which guarantees 10 tricks?  Or, should you be trying for 11 tricks?

SOLUTION

The way to be sure of 10 tricks is to play the A♠ (after winning the K♥), and then:

   - if West shows out on the first round of Spades, Diamonds are presumably breaking 3-2 and therefore

      running, so play on Spades, eventually losing just one more Spade trick.  Making 10 tricks.

   - if West follows to the first round of Spades, then don't play a second round of trumps, instead play a 

     Diamond to the King, then to the Ace.  Even if West ruffs the first round of Diamonds, the contract still

     makes 10 tricks.

Suppose that West plays an honor on the first round of trumps.  Now, there is an excellent chance of an overtrick, by taking a second round trump finesse and getting a Diamond ruff on the board.  However, If West started with JT doubleton of trumps and wins that second round, you'll be down one in a cold contract.  Is it worth the risk, this being matchpoints?  We don't think so, for the simple reason that we already have a good board just by making the contract, as the opponents have a good save in 5♣.

Keys to Success

   - Coming to the reasonable conclusion that West was 5-6 in Hearts and Clubs

   - Realizing that the opponents had a good save in 5♣ and that just making 4♠ would be a good result.

   - Choosing the line of play with maximum safety, and not pursuing a risky overtrick.

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