From                 19th July, 2006, Board 4

                                          Theme               Matchpoint Decisions

                                          Difficulty           * * *

                                          Dlr North          Both Vul                Hands Rotated

                                                                                                  for Convenience

West leads A♣, then a Club to East's King, which you ruff.

Playing this hand at IMPs, you would cash the Ace of Hearts at Trick Three, giving up on 11 tricks, but making 10 tricks almost always (the potential Spade loser goes on a Diamond).  Playing matchpoints, it's sometimes necessary to risk a little in order to gain a lot, even if, once in a while, you go down in a cold contract. 

You have just one entry to the board, and you can use that for the Heart finesse, presumably making 11 tricks if the finesse works, and 10 if it does not work.  Is this hand really that simple?

SOLUTION

It would be easy to get careless on this one.  You must protect against a 4-1 Spade break, and the best way to do that is to play the Q♦ at Trick Three (after ruffing the Club).  Later, you will cross to the Q♠, cash the K♦ (pitching a Spade), and try the Heart finesse.  Most of the time, this will make 10 or 11 tricks, depending upon the result of that finesse.

What does the recommended line risk?  The danger is that the finesse will lose, and that East has only one Spade.  If the opponents get their Spade ruff, you will go down ... this distribution will occur around 8% of the time.  Additionally, 6% of the time West will have the singleton K♥, so altogether, about 14% of the time, we'll regret taking the Heart finesse.

What does the recommended line gain?  Almost half the time we'll make 11 tricks (when the Heart finesse works).  More precisely, it's a 48% chance of an overtrick, in exchange for a 14% chance of regretting the finesse.  Pretty good matchpoint odds!

Keys to Success

   - Playing on Diamonds before crossing to Dummy's Q♠

   - Taking the (slight) risk of defeat in return for a substantially better probability of an overtrick