From                 14th June, 2006, Board 9

                                          Difficulty           * * *

                                          Dlr North          E-W Vul
 

♠ KT ♥ AT2 ♦ KT ♣ AKJ985	North    Dummy      East             South	♠ Q97543 ♥ ♦ QJ75432 ♣
West     North   East      South                            Pass     Pass     Pass               1♣        1♥        2♦         4♥               Dbl       Pass     4♠        Dbl               5♦         Pass     Pass     Dbl               Pass     Pass     Pass

Considering the distribution, it's not surprising that a spirited auction develops.  Partner might have done better to pass 4♠, but then again he could hardly expect us to have 6 of them after bidding Diamonds first.

South leads the Heart Five, which is explained as a "3rd and 5th" lead.

With two Aces to be lost, you must avoid a second Spade loser.  There is not much point in trying to ruff the 3rd round of Spades, the opponents will put a stop to that by drawing two rounds of trump when they are in with the A♠.  Another possibility is to draw trumps yourself and then stake everything on guessing the location of the J♠.

Can you do better than that?

SOLUTION

Of course, we can get rid of 3 of our Spades on the A♥ and AK♣, but that's not enough, we need 4 pitches to save ourselves from the hazard of a Spade guess.  The opening lead has given us an extra entry to the board, and that might be enough to establish the Clubs and get that 4th pitch.  We would win the A♥, ruff a Club, and lead a Diamond to the board ... this is the full deal:

	♠ 86 ♥ KQ643 ♦ 96 ♣ QT64
♠ KT ♥ AT2 ♦ KT ♣ AKJ985	North    Dummy       East            South	♠ Q97543 ♥ ♦ QJ75432 ♣
	♠ AJ2 ♥ J9875 ♦ A8 ♣ 732

The play could go in two main directions now:

Line A:  South jumps up with the Ace and continues a Diamond ... now we play AK♣, and when the Queen does not come down we ruff a Club ... then a Spade up to the board and the contract now makes whenever the A♠ is with South or whenever the J♠ is doubleton.

Line B:  South ducks the A♦ ... now we ruff a Club, lose a Diamond, and again rely on A♠ with South or J♠ doubleton.

The line of play which relies on guessing the J♠ is not much better than 50% ... the recommended line will work if the A♠ is with South or the J♠ is doubleton, which takes us to over 60%.

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