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Monday Post Mortem 20th August, 2012
Analysis by Brian Gunnell Hand Record
West North East South 1NT Pass 2♣ Pass 2♥ Pass 4♥ All Pass
Against 4♥, let’s suppose that, East chooses to lead a Spade. How would you play the Hearts? Here are three reasons why Declarer should play East for the Queen: - If you have to lose a Heart it would be better to lose it to West so as to prevent a Club shift through Dummy’s King - East made a nondescript lead of a Spade, perhaps he had nothing attractive to lead. In that case he might well have led a trump … unless, of course, he held the Queen. - An enemy holding of Q9xx can be picked up only if that holding is with East. So, the right play at Trick 2 is to play the A♥ and run the J♥.
Virtue is rewarded when East does indeed have the Q♥. After trumps are drawn, the Spades are cashed (Declarer pitching a Club). Now 10 tricks are assured and the only play for an 11th is if a defender has Ace doubleton of Diamonds. This turns out not to be the case, so no overtrick on this one … but an undertrick for those who misguessed the Hearts!
West North East South 1♠ 2♣ Pass 2♥ 2♠ Pass Pass 3♥ All Pass
Over 1♠ South has a choice between: - The Unusual 2NT, not a great idea at this vulnerability, with too much defense and not enough offense. - Pass, which would be quite reasonable - 2♣, getting a lead-director into the auction.
We like the last choice, but regardless of that it seems likely that E-W will play in 3♥ or N-S will play in 3♠. It turns out that both contracts are down one, and in both cases it is a trump promotion that provides the setting trick: - Against 3♥ East cashes the A♠ and K♠ and the 3rd round of the suit promotes a trick for West’s J♥. However, Dummy ruffs the 3rd Spade with the Queen, cashes A♣ and K♣ (pitching a Diamond), and gets his 9 tricks. The winning defense, of course, is to cash the two Diamonds before playing the 3rd round of Spades. Very nicely done by any E-W pairs who managed to beat 3♥. - Against 3♠ the winning defense is easier to find. South cashes the Clubs, shifts to the Q♥ which North must overtake. Now the 3rd round of Hearts is fatal to Declarer.
West North East South Pass 1♣ Pass 1♥ Pass 3♦ Pass 4♦ Pass 4NT Pass 5♠ Pass 5NT Pass 6♥ All Pass
- West’s 3♦ is a “jump reverse”. As the non-jump reverse of 2♦ shows a strong hand (and is forcing) there is no need for 3♦ also to show strength. So, a common treatment is for the jump reverse to be a splinter. - After the splinter, East has his eye on slam, but can hardly charge into Blackwood with small doubletons in both black suits. So, he cue-bids his A♦. - Now it is West who trots out Roman Key Card Blackwood. - East shows “Two with” - 5NT is the “King Ask”. In this situation, do you play “Number of Kings” or “Specific King”? We suggest the latter, in which case East’s 6♥ denies a side-suit King.
Against 6♥, South’s opening lead is a Spade, won in Dummy. Provided that trumps are no worse than 3-1 Declarer can count 12 tricks, coming via two Spades, five trumps plus a Diamond ruff on the board, one Diamond and three Clubs. But this is matchpoints, let’s try for 13! The best line seems to be to cross to the K♥ at Trick 2 and immediately take the Club finesse. If it wins then Declarer goes after two Diamond ruffs on the board (protecting against 3-1 trumps). As it happens, just about any line of play is good for 13 tricks when the Club finesse works and the trumps are 2-2. In fact, those who got to 6NT will get an undeserved top when not only is the K♣ onside but it is also tripleton, providing four Club tricks for Declarer.
West North East South Pass Pass Pass 1♣ 1♥ 3♣ All Pass
North’s jump to 3♣ was preemptive. What next by South? Well, if South trusts Partner’s preempts then she will pass that lovely 18-count, judging game to be unlikely. Actually, as it turns out, 5♣ does indeed have a play, but with the A♥ offside 10 tricks is the maximum.
West North East South Pass Pass 1♠ Pass 2♥ Pass 2NT All Pass
Against 2NT, West has an ugly choice of opening leads, and may guess to lead a Diamond. It’s a lucky hand for Declarer, she can establish three Spades, two Hearts, and four Diamonds (thanks to the opening lead). There might even be a Club trick in the works if the defense never attacks Hearts (which they probably won’t).
So, we are predicting a bunch of +150 and +180 scores on this board, with a top for those optimistic N-S pairs who stumbled into game.
West North East South 1♣ 1♥ Dbl Pass 1♠ 2♦ 4♠ All Pass
At first glance, West’s second bid might look like an automatic 3♠ bid, inviting game. But, West’s hand has lots of plus points (well-placed K♥, Club fit, a nice sprinkling or fillers) so 4♠ it is.
Against 4♠ the defense starts with Diamonds, Declarer ruffing the second round. The bidding and the play of the Diamonds marks South with the K♣, so a good ploy at Trick 3 would be to lead the Q♣. The play might be as follows: K♦ wins the opening trick Another Diamond is ruffed Q♣ covered by the King and Ace Spade to the Ace T♠ is cashed Now, Declarer plays another Club while there is still a trump in his hand to handle a Diamond continuation. If the J♣ is with North (the actual case), then it will be 11 tricks. And also 11 tricks if South started with KJ doubleton in Clubs and is unable to give North a ruff. An interesting exercise in trump control.
West North East South Pass 1♣ Pass 1NT Pass 3NT All Pass
Against 3NT, South has an obvious T♥ opening lead, to North’s Queen and Declarer’s Ace. The key to making 12 tricks is to find the winning play in the both Spades and Diamonds: - Spades: If the T♠ is doubleton or if the suit is 3-3 then it doesn’t really matter how Declarer tackles Spades. But he can give himself an extra chance by leading twice towards Dummy’s KJ93, in case South started with the doubleton Ace. - Diamonds: There is a tiny advantage (just 2%) in cashing the A♦ and then finessing towards the long hand. Justice is served when the percentage play in both suits is also the play that wins! So, 12 tricks come rolling in, at least for some Declarers.
West North East South 2♣ Pass 2♦ Pass 2♠ Pass 3♦ Pass 3♥ Pass 3NT Pass 4♠ All Pass
Pity poor West on this deal! He has a two-loser hand, his Partner has some values, and yet even game is impossible! After West’s 2♣, we wouldn’t advocate a positive 3♦ response from East, that suit is weak, and 3♦ will have a cramping effect on the auction. So East temporizes with a waiting 2♦, then shows Diamonds next time around. West bids Spades, then Hearts, then more Spades, and East, with nothing in Partner’s two suits, sensibly passes 4♠.
What does North lead against 4♠? That Heart holding strongly suggests a trump lead, and that beats the contract. So would the A♦ and a trump shift.
West North East South Pass 1♣ 1♠ Dbl 2♠ Pass Pass 3♣ 3♠ Pass Pass 4♣ All Pass - West makes a Negative Double before admitting to Club support. As usual, finding the major fit takes precedence. - After West’s Double, North’s plan was to bid 2♠ followed by 3♠, if necessary. But there’s a useful gadget in this situation, please follow the link to Constructive Raises in Competition. - West judges well to bid 4♣. Well, maybe.
4♣ is probably the winning bid. 4♣ will make 10 tricks with careful play, and 3♠ doubled is down one for sure, and down two if Declarer misguesses the Diamond situation (or if the defense makes the mistake of breaking the suit).
West North East South 3♥ Pass 4♥ All Pass
It turns out that the E-W hands fit together rather poorly and that 4♥ is a terrible contract. Nonetheless, it is a contract which makes, given careful play by Declarer. South finds the dynamic opening lead of the Q♠. Now it looks as if Declarer must lose two Spades and the minor suit Aces. Not necessarily!
Clearly it will be necessary for one defender to hold one or two Spades only, along with both the missing Aces. Does it matter which defender is short in Spades? Yes, it has to be South, we need the A♦ in front of the King. We also need to guess whether South has led a singleton or a doubleton. Let’s say we guess doubleton and are right! So we duck the first Spade, and win the second.
Now what? Surely the plan is to leave trumps alone (that A♥ entry will be needed later) and play on Clubs. Later (after trumps are out of the way) we’ll lead towards the K♦ and West, with nothing left but minor cards will be forced to give us the 10th trick. So, we lead the K♣ at Trick 2, and that holds. Now we play the Q♣ (not a low one), and this fetches the Jack from North and the Ace from South. Now, the best that South can do is to exit a Heart, after which we ruff a Club, draw trumps and lead a Diamond.
Keys to Success - Visualizing the only layout which allows the contract to be made - Ducking the first Spade (but that part was just a good guess!) - Playing on Clubs before cashing the A♥
West North East South 2♥ Pass Pass Dbl Pass Pass 3♦ Dbl All Pass
- Some might frown on the moderate Heart suit, but South says “Phooey” to them and opens 2♥ anyway. The hand has some shape and some fillers, N-S are not vulnerable, so she likes to get in there and create a little mayhem. - Salivating is generally frowned upon at the bridge table, so West dryly passes while eagerly awaiting a balancing Double from Partner. - East is void in Hearts, North failed to raise Hearts, the chances are that West has a bunch. So, East doubles, catering for the possibility of a penalty pass from West. - North would have loved to have bid a non-forcing 3♦ on the previous round, but that was not an option. Now, North is delighted to run to 3♦ with that splendid suit.
Against 3♦ doubled East leads the K♠, and when Dummy goes down North will be a happy camper. North’s apparently certain seven tricks will be a good save against the enemy game, but it doesn’t turn out that way: K♠ opening lead Spade continuation to West’s Ace Club to East’s Ace Another Spade is cashed Club to West’s King Club ruffed low by Declarer Diamond to Dummy’s Ace Heart is lost to West The defense has already got six tricks in, and the 7th materializes through a trump promotion when West leads a Club. That is down three for -500, more than the E-W game. True, E-W can actually make 6♣ (and even 6♠) but those are not good contracts and are unlikely to be bid.
West North East South Pass 1♠ Pass 1NT Pass 2♣ Pass 2♠ All Pass
There are a number of really interesting boards in this set, but Board 12 is not one of them. 2♠ makes 8 tricks.
West North East South Pass 1NT Pass 2♣ Pass 2♥ Pass 3NT All Pass
South finds herself on lead against 3NT. What’s your choice? Our South reasoned a low Heart could be a matchpoint disaster, fearing that Declarer might win a cheap trick and rattle off 12 tricks (West is unlimited, remember, and could have a pretty good hand). So, she led the ♥K which, for most pairs asks for “Queen attitude”. So, North discourages, and now all that South has to do is scoot over to Partner’s hand for a Heart through. A Spade shift looks more promising than a Diamond, so South plays the 8♠ at Trick 2, and the T♥ is fired back. Down two!
West North East South 1♦ Pass 2♣ 2♠ 3♣ Pass 3♠ Pass 3NT All Pass
When the opponents get into a 2/1 auction it is usually a good idea to keep quiet and let them get on with it. But North has a really good hand, she’s non-vulnerable, so who can blame her for throwing in a 2♠ bid, if only for its beneficial properties as a lead-director.
Against 3NT, South dutifully leads Partner’s Spade suit, and now it’s 11 tricks for Declarer. The winning lead by South is actually a Heart, holding Declarer to 10 tricks. So much for lead-direction!
West North East South Pass 1♦ 1♠ Dbl 2♦ Pass 2♠ 3♣ ??
- South’s 2♦ shows invitational values in Spades. - North is going nowhere with that minimum overcall so rebids 2♠. - Over 3♣, South has a close decision between passing and bidding 3♠. True, she has only three Spades, but the singleton Club looks promising.
It’s difficult to say whether 3♠ by South is the winning bid, because the play in Spades is hard to predict: Q♦ opening lead overtaken by West’s Ace Club to Dummy’s Ace Diamond to the King J♥ won by West’s Queen Low Diamond, North pitches a Club, East ruffs Club ruffed on the board Spade to the Nine Heart finesse A♥ is cashed, West declines to ruff, Declarer pitches a Club Heart ruff That’s seven tricks already for Declarer, and her Spade spots in the end-game are good enough for two more. The way for the defense to hold Declarer to eight tricks is for East to start out with his singleton trump. Far from obvious!
West North East South 1♦ Pass 2♦ Pass 2NT Pass 4NT All Pass
2♦ was an Inverted Raise, showing at least invitational strength, with Diamond support, and no 4-card major. Some partnerships like to bid stoppers here, but a simpler (and, some would say, more effective) style is to bid the hand-type: - 2NT is a balanced minimum (not necessarily with stoppers in both majors) - 3♦ is an unbalanced minimum - 2♥ and 2♠ show something in that suit and enough for game - Side-suit bids at the 3-level show shortness If these are the methods in use then West has an obvious 2NT rebid, East invites with 4NT (let’s assume that E-W have Minorwood in their bag of tricks), and West declines.
Against 4NT, North leads the Q♠, which (against NT contracts only) conventionally asks Partner to play the Jack if she has it, and which she duly does. Declarer can count 13 tricks if the Diamond finesse works, but if that finesse is due to fail he’ll need to hold up in Spades to ensure his contract. As E-W did not bid slam, Declarer hopes that the Diamond finesse will fail, so he holds up in Spades, loses the Diamond finesse and absconds with 10 or 11 tricks (depending on whether he guesses to hold up once or twice).
West North East South Pass 1♦ Pass 1♠ 1NT 2♠ 3♥ 3♠ All Pass - Having passed already, North’s 1NT is natural, and even if N-S are not playing the Sandwich No Trump, it’s logical that 1NT would for the unbid suits. Could North bid 2NT or double instead? Well, 2NT would be weaker and more preemptive, and we’d say that North is too good for that (as passed hands go, we’d say that North has a pretty good collection). And Double would be more appropriate without that 5-card Heart suit, let’s say a hand which is 4-4 or 4-5 in Hearts and Clubs, with 10 or 11 HCP’s. - South assumes that North has five Hearts for that 1NT bid, and that allows her to complete to the 3-level on the known 9-card fit. - Similarly, if we assume that E-W are playing Support Doubles, then East’s 2♠ shows 4-card support. So, West knows that his side also has a 9-card fit, making it easy for him to compete to the 3-level.
Playing in 3♥, South has an easy route to her 9 tricks.
How does 3♠ do? North leads the Diamond Six, which has all the appearances of a singleton. You win in hand with the K♦, finesse in trumps, and draw the second round. How do you avoid losing three Clubs, a Heart and a Diamond?
The bidding and the play have been quite revealing. It looks as if North started out with 2=5=1=5. He held the K♠, and it hardly seems likely that she also has the A♣ and K♣, most players nowadays would have opened that hand. So, it’s a reasonable assumption that South has Ax or Kx in Clubs. If that is so, we can eliminate the Diamonds and throw in the opponents with a Heart.
So, after drawing trumps, Declarer ducks a Diamond, which is won by South. The Heart return is won by the Ace, now the A♦ is cashed and a Diamond is ruffed. Declarer exits a Heart and the defense is helpless. After winning the Heart, if North plays another Heart Declarer uses the ruff and sluff to shake a Club loser. And if North plays a Club, Declarer plays low from the board, ensuring that South is forced to win the second round of Clubs and concede a ruff and sluff.
Key to Success - Remembering the auction and deducing the enemy distribution - Eliminating the Diamonds - Playing low from Dummy on the first round of Clubs
West North East South 1♣ 1♠ Dbl 2♦ 2♥ Pass 4♥ Dbl All Pass
- North has too much defense to preempt the first time around. - It’s hard to fault West for going to game with that lovely 10-count, the hand has so many plus points … the K♠ over the Spade bidder, void in an enemy suit, and a 5-card fit with Partner’s first suit.
Alas for E-W, everything is wrong, and Declarer has some doubled undertricks in his future (two or three of them).
West North East South 1♦ Pass Pass Dbl Rdbl Pass Pass 1♠ 2♥ Pass 3♦ All Pass
- South decides against a 2♣ opening, knowing full well that auctions which begin 2♣ 2♦, 3♦ are notoriously awkward. However, given the same hand but with the 5-card suit in one of the majors, opening this 3-loser hand with 2♣ would be far more attractive. - It’s unusual to make a Takeout Double with five Spades, but it’s a reasonable choice for East here, given such an otherwise perfect shape and the unmitigated rottenness of the Spade suit. - South now makes a strength-showing Redouble, followed by a further strong bid of 2♥, and when this fails to stir North into action, South settles for a part-score in Diamonds.
Playing in Diamonds, South makes 11 tricks unless the defense starts out with a Club won by East, followed by a Spade shift, grabbing their three tricks while the grabbing is good.
It turns out that East’s decision to double 1♦ worked out badly. If he had balanced with 1♠, West would have been aware of the 8-card fit, and might well have competed to 3♠. That is a fine contract, scoring 9 or 10 tricks. It will be 9 tricks if South starts out with Hearts, but 10 tricks if she starts with a high Diamond, allowing East to execute this neat little Dummy Reversal: A♦ ruffed by Declarer Spade finesse Diamond ruff Spade finesse Diamond ruff Cross to Dummy’s J♣ Draw the last trump Cash the Clubs That’s 10 tricks for Declarer, with the defense taking the last three.
West North East South 1♥ 2♦ Pass 2♥ Pass 3NT All Pass
We can see many N-S pairs missing this dubious 3NT game, and we’d characterize South’s 2♥ as a tad ambitious. Anyway, if North ends up in 3NT, she will find that, on this board at least, fortune favors the bold. East leads a Heart and West has nothing better to do than persevere with Hearts. Now, Declarer wins, crosses on a Diamond, takes the Club finesse, and (before cashing the Diamonds) cashes the A♣. When the K♣ comes down doubleton, Declarer can count 10 tricks. The way to hold 3NT to just 9 tricks is for East to lead the T♠ at Trick 1. But even making just 9 tricks in 3NT should be a good board, we doubt that many N-S pairs will bid this game.
West North East South Pass Pass Pass 1NT Pass 2♦ Pass 2NT Pass 3♦ Pass 3♥ All Pass
This hand is a good commercial for the practice of super-accepting major suit transfers when holding 4-card support. West’s 2NT said “I have 4 Hearts and a good hand” (there are other methods in use, too), then 3♦ was a re-transfer to Hearts which is where West played the hand. That’s down one.
What’s so great about that, you say? The super-accept got E-W too high, they could have made a 2♥ contract. Yes, but if West bids just 2♥ over 2♦, any self-respecting matchpoint player will balance with a 2♠ bid as South. If West now bids a belated 3♥, North will perhaps compete to 3♠, making 9 tricks. So, the super-accept may have got E-W too high, but its preemptive value wins the day.
West North East South Pass Pass Pass 1♣ Pass 1♠ Pass 1NT All Pass
Do you play New Minor Forcing? Most players do (or else they use a variant such as Two-Way Checkback), but on this particular deal the convention is a liability. The South hand looks more useful for suit play, and a natural 2♦ would describe this hand perfectly. As that is not available we suppose that South should pass, it would be a pure guess (but a successful one) if South were to bid 2♠.
Back on Board 16, North held KQT96 and, against No Trump, led the Queen, asking Partner to drop the Jack if she had it. Here, East is on lead against No Trump, with KQT5. Is this the same situation? No, this holding is not quite strong enough, it would be most vexing to lead the Queen and get the Jack from Partner, only to discover that Declarer has A98x, and that a second stopper has just been presented to Declarer. So, East leads the K♥ and gets the encouraging Seven from Partner, allowing East to continue the suit with a low one. At the end of the day Declarer will count herself lucky to get out for down one, and down two is perhaps more likely.
West North East South 1♦ Pass 1♠ 2♥ Pass 3♥ 4♣ Pass 4♦ Pass 4♠ All Pass
Preempting with an outside Ace and King is quite beyond the pale, so South opens One Very Sensible Diamond. However, this does not work so well, propelling Partner to a precarious 4♠.
Against 4♠, East might well lead his singleton Diamond, signaling a quick defeat for the contract. In fact, Declarer must play with care to avoid down two: Diamond to West’s Ace Low Diamond (suit preference) ruffed by East Club to the Ace Another Diamond ruffed high by Declarer Heart to East’s Ace Now, Dummy’s King will provide somewhere for Declarer to park her slow Club loser. Note the importance of playing a Heart while Dummy still has an entry in trumps.
West North East South Pass Pass 1♠ 2♣ 2♠ 3♣ Pass Pass 3♠ All Pass
Both sides have a 9-card fit and felt comfortable competing up to the 3-level. But disciples of the Law of Total Tricks may be devastated to discover that there are not 18 total tricks on this hand, just 16 in fact.
If South buys it in 3♣ (unlikely) it will be down one, though even down two is not out of the question.
It’s more probable that the final contract will be 3♠, played by East. South must avoid the highly dangerous (and fatal to the defense) lead of a Club or a Diamond, either of which give Declarer 9 easy tricks. A safer lead would be a trump, won by North’s Ace. Now a Club comes back, won by Dummy’s Ace. Declarer draws the trumps and exits with a Club, which South wins. That was a good play by Declarer because South must now guess how to get out safely. Not with a Club, of course, that would concede a ruff and sluff. Which is your choice, a Heart or a Diamond? South reasons that a Heart is surely less dangerous, that requires North to hold the Q♥ or the A♥. That’s a better bet than a Diamond which stakes everything on Partner holding the A♦.
West North East South Pass 1♦ Pass 2♦ Pass 3♦ All Pass
West’s 2♦ is Inverted (see also Board 16), after which 3♦ shows a minimum and unbalanced hand. A straightforward auction to a sensible spot. 10 tricks.
Of course, N-S can make a fairly large number of Hearts. Was either player at fault for not getting into the auction? Surely not South, who of us would seriously advocate a 1♥ overcall with that collection of junk? How about North, could she have done something? It’s not obvious that she should. Sure, she has a better hand than South, but by now the opponents have gotten into a forcing auction and any action looks dangerous. However, if N-S do somehow get into a Heart contract they have 9 easy tricks, and 10 if Declarer is inspired enough to lead the Q♥ on the first round of trumps.
West North East South 1♠ Pass 2♣ Pass 2♥ Pass 2♠ Pass 3♣ Pass 4♠ All Pass
Opposite the 1♠ opening, 4♠ by West is generally played as preemptive, so he makes a game-forcing 2♣ bid first. After East rebids 2♥, West supports Spades, then jumps to game the next time around to show no interest in slam.
Playing in 4♠ there is the K♣ to be lost and at least two trump tricks. What is the percentage play to avoid a third trump loser? Obviously the goal is to avoid losing a trick to the T♠ and the best way to do that is to lead low towards the Q83. If the Queen loses to North’s Ace or King, then the plan for the second trick is to lead low from Dummy, and finesse the Nine if North plays low. This works just fine on the actual board, and 4♠ makes 10 tricks.
Anyone for 3NT? Did any Wests look at their square hand and say “Perhaps this hand will play better in 3NT”? Well, once in a while, perhaps it will but we would say that the odds are against it. The West hand may be square but we would hesitate to call it “No Trumpish”. There are no fillers, no tenaces, no slow tricks, and no reason not to gravitate to the 8-card major fit. It’s true that Dummy does not have a ruffing value to provide an extra trick, but it is also true that Declarer’s trumps may be needed to defend against an attack in one of the minor suits. On the actual hand, in 3NT, a Diamond attack will get the defense’s Diamonds going before Declarer can get his Spades going, so a Spade contract is the place to be.
West North East South Pass 1♣ 1NT 2♦ All Pass
If East had a good hand (let’s say a nice 9-count or better), he would usually double 1NT, saying to Partner “I have values, perhaps they are in trouble”. East is not good enough for that, so he chooses to compete with 2♦ (non-forcing).
The bottom line on this hand is that nobody can make much of anything. 2♦ will be held to seven tricks, and it’s a deal where it pays to defend rather than to declare.
West North East South 3♣ Pass Pass Dbl Pass 3♠ All Pass
We are sure that nobody considered passing the West hand, all the more so considering the vulnerability. The 3♣ preempt pushes the opponents to 3♠, a contract that is down one.
West North East South Pass Pass 1♦ Pass 1♥ Pass 1♠ All Pass
North’s Pass of 1♠ looks eminently sensible to us, and 1♠ just might steal the pot. In a Spade contract there are 4 sure tricks for the defense, with probably another one in the wash. We predict 8 tricks for Declarer.
West North East South Pass Pass 1♥ 2NT 3♥ 4♦ 4♥ Pass Pass 5♦ Dbl All Pass
- North’s 2NT is Unusual, in this case showing the minors. - East’s 3♥ is a bold effort, but he does have four trumps and a singleton to atone for the lack of HCP’s. Also many pairs have agreements in this situation that a minor suit cue-bid shows values (Unusual vs Unusual) and that direct raises are competitive. - Should South sacrifice over 4♥? If South trusts Partner not to have too much defense for that 2NT then surely the answer is “Yes!” Defending 4♥, N-S will score one Spade, no Hearts, and surely not more than two tricks in the minors. The second question is “Will 5♦ be a profitable save?” Probably, but no guarantees..
Playing in 4♥, West racks up an easy 11 tricks. And 5♦ doubled? The defense must get a Club ruff to get their required 500, and we’d be surprised if they do.
West North East South 1♦ 4♠ All Pass
West’s Spade suit was perhaps less robust than usual for a 4♠ preempt but it doesn’t pay to pussyfoot around with 8-4 distribution. We have to admire East’s heroic self-restraint in this auction, many (perhaps most) would at least check for Key Cards here. Against a Spade contract (however high) North will lead the Q♣ and now 10 tricks is the limit.
West North East South 1♥ Pass 2♥ All Pass
At first glance, one might think “Shame on N-S!” for selling out to 2♥ when they can make higher part-scores in no fewer than three denominations. But perhaps there was method to their feebleness because they do better defending 2♥. At least they do if North is smart enough to lead a trump. Yes, repeated trump leads prevent a Spade ruff in Dummy, and Declarer can now come to no more than 5 Heart tricks and the A♦. That's down two for the dreaded -200.
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