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Hand Analyses 5th October, 2011
There’s an abundance of links on this page, here’s what they all mean: - Notations such as Bidding Quiz (North) are links to the weekly Bidding Quiz, a selection of the 15-20 most interesting bidding situations of the week. - Each week we pick out two or three hands which are suitable for presentation in problem format, as in Play Problem 203 (West), linking you to a page with only two hands on display. Solve the problem first, then see the solution and the entire deal. - Some analyses contain references to bidding conventions, and you’ll see links to articles in our Convention Library such as Roman Key Card - In BridgeOpedia we have categorized by theme the entire history of the most instructive Wednesday Game hands, four year’s worth. Occasionally you will see a purple arrow, linking to the relevant BridgeOpedia section. For example, in this week’s Board 1, East has the chance for a spectacular defensive unblock. Adjacent to the text for that hand you will see the link >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Defensive Blocking/Unblocking”>> which will transport you to the collection of hands with the same theme.
Over 2♠, West has a fairly clear-cut Double. True, he’s got only three Hearts, but the 17 HCP provide plenty of compensation. We suppose that some will be tempted to bid 3♣ with that hand, but that hardly seems right with such a modest suit and with support for the other suits. How about the next time around, when West is confronted by North’s raise to 3♠? We believe that West should pass here, and not get too excited by those 17 points. After all, two of them are wasted, so it’s really just a shapeless 15, hardly enough to force Partner to bid at the four-level. Passing is the winner on the actual layout, as the highest making E-W contract is 2♣.
How does 3♠ do? With accurate defense, 3♠ is down a trick (losing a trump, two Hearts and two Clubs), but there are some traps for unwary defenders. For example: The ♥A and ♥K are cashed Heart ruff Lose a Club Win Club return Cross to the ♠A ♦Q covered by the King and Ace Lose to the ♠K Now East is end-played! He has no Clubs left and must concede a ruff and sluff in Hearts or else lead into Dummy’s Diamond tenace. That was well-timed play by Declarer, taking that Diamond finesse and losing a Club before playing on trumps. With lesser lines of play 3♠ will be down a trick.
So how does the defense beat 3♠? East must unblock the Spade King! Even looking at only two hands, we think that East should see the end-play coming and find the unblock. Easy for us to say, looking at all four hands. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Defensive Blocking/Unblocking”>>
This one looks fairly routine. Against 4♠, North leads a Heart, perhaps, trumps are drawn, the Hearts don’t run, and the Club finesse loses and that is 10 tricks for Declarer.
East’s cue-bid at the 4-level creates a Forcing Pass situation. In other words, West can, if he wishes, pass 5♦, safe in the knowledge that Partner cannot also pass here, and that, if N-S are to play the hand then they will be playing it doubled. So, West’s choices here are: - Pass? Indicates uncertainty as to whether E-W should be bidding on or going for the penalty, and leaves that decision to Partner. - Double? A preference to defend. May or may not have tricks in their trump suit. - Bid 5♥? A preference to play the hand. A 5♥ bidder is likely to be short in their suit, with extra trumps and/or distribution.
It turns out that the winning call is to bid 5♥, or to pass (now East will bid 5♥), as 5♦ doubled is down only 300 whereas 5♥ makes and is worth 650. But West is more likely to double 5♦, we think. After all, he does have a marginal opening bid, only 11 HCP, including a doubleton Queen and a doubleton Jack, and will be apprehensive about trying for 11 tricks. We would double 5♦ with that West hand, and don’t suppose that East will pull that. So, well done by N-S if they get to 5♦, they’ll probably play it there and get a good score. Bear in mind that, just because 5♥ happens to make, does not mean that it is a good contract, and it requires a fair slice of Spade luck and a Club finesse to bring home.
Post Script: What is West supposed to do if he has a slammish hand? Over 5♦ he has two choices: - Pass & Pull: West can pass 5♦ and then bid 5♥ after East doubles. This sequence shows slam interest. - With an even better hand, West can always bid slam directly, of course.
West’s 2♣ was Drury, a passed-hand device showing game-invitational values and Heart support. Is West worth that bid? We think so. We don’t much like the square shape, but those controls are nice, as are the trump intermediates which might well figure in the play. As it happens they do figure, allowing Declarer to hold his trump losers to one. So, at most tables, we suppose that Declarer will make 11 tricks.
Deep Finesse says that 4♥ can be held to 10 tricks. How so? Easy! All South has to do is to underlead her ♣A at Trick 1. North later gets in with the ♥A, returns a Club and gets a Club ruff. Hands up all those who found that defense!
That’s a pretty miserable 11-count that North has: - No fitting cards in Partner’s first suit. - Three Queens, though that is somewhat mitigated by the fact that all three are bolstered by other honors in the suit. - Poor controls (but that almost goes without saying as most of North’s points are tied up with those Queens).
Despite these demerits, we suppose that most Norths will bid 3♥ after South’s 1♥. Bidding only 2♥ would be very much “anti-field”, and could hand N_S an instant zero if South has a good hand. Rather than risk that, North goes with the rest of the field, getting to the normal contract and relying on Partner’s sublime declarer skills to earn a good board.
There are 9 tricks available, one way or another. It might seem that Declarer can even scrape up 10 tricks by guessing the Heart situation, but she cannot quite handle things. So +140 at most tables, we suspect.
We suppose that West’s hand is worth a 2/1, being bolstered by those intermediates in the long suits and, one way or another, most Easts will end up declaring 4♠. If South gets aggressive with her opening lead and starts out with a low Club then that will immediately blow a trick for the defense. Now Declarer could amass an astonishing 12 tricks with this (somewhat unlikely) line of play: Club lead won by Dummy’s Queen Finesse the ♦Q Cash the ♠K Cross to the ♠A Run the ♦J Cross to the ♦A Cash the ♠Q Cross to the ♥A Now the last Diamond is cashed, Declarer’s Heart goes away, and the defense scores just a trump trick.
But we don’t see many Declarers finding that line of play, and we predict 11 tricks for Declarer if South leads a Club, and only 10 if South leads a Heart or a Diamond.
North’s 2NT (showing 11-12) is not perfect considering the Heart holding, but in the hurly-burly of matchpoints it doesn’t always pay to be too fastidious in these matters.
East leads the Diamond Ten, overtaken by West’s King. Back comes a Diamond, and Declarer has a choice of plays: - She can duck this trick, allowing East to win cheaply. This protects against the Diamonds being 3-5 (as in fact they are), allowing Declarer to safely lose a Club to West if necessary. - Or, she can play an honor, taking the chance that East might duck and that West might have a Club stopper, in which case the contract is going down.
The winning choice (and probably the correct matchpoint play) is to split the honors. Now, if East is alert, he will grab his Ace, knowing full well that a duck here would be futile as West cannot possible have any entries (remember, North showed 11-12). That’s 11 tricks for Declarer when the Clubs and the Hearts are Declarer-friendly.
West’s passed-hand Takeout Double works well when it inspires East to compete up to 4♣. No doubt North will push on to 4♦. Both sides have a 10-card fit, but (with accurate defense) both sides can make only 9 tricks, not exactly a triumph for the Law of Total Tricks. But, there is a chance that both 4♣ and 4♦ will make at some tables:
The Play in 4♦: West leads a top Club and must avoid the temptation to play another Club. Declarer would ruff that, draw trumps, play on Spades, and eventually pitch away one of her Heart losers on the 13th Spade. The way to beat 4♦ is for West to shift to a Heart at Trick 2.
The Play in 4♣: There’s a curious symmetry to this deal. If South chooses to lead the ♦K, then she must shift to the ♠J and Trick 2. Failure to do so will allow Declarer eventually to pitch a Spade loser on the 13th Heart. But, perhaps South should have led a Spade on the go, that suit looks more promising for the defense (especially if the auction has been such that North has raised Diamonds).
North is unswayed by her 5-card Spade suit and opens 1NT, and South is very much swayed by those nice Clubs and raises to game.
Against 3NT, Deep Finesse leads a Spade, gets a Heart shift, and Declarer is down two. But human Easts will no doubt lead a low Heart and now Declarer has 9 tricks when the Diamond finesse works.
Some Norths will open 1♠ because that’s what they always do with that type of hand. That is likely to get N-S to a Spade part-score, which will be worth 9 tricks (or 8 in the unlikely event that the defense gets two Club ruffs). Those one-Spaders will have reason to feel aggrieved when they see all those +400 scores in the N-S column.
We’ve been giving you some unscientific auctions this month, and here’s another one. Our West doesn’t mess around by showing his Diamonds, he simply zooms into the most likely contract. Having said that, this would be a good hand for Puppet Stayman, if that is part of the E-W methods. Some like to use 3♣ for that convention, giving West a chance to find a 5-3 major fit with a ruff or two in the short hand.
There is not a lot to the play. We suppose that South will lead a Heart (low or the Jack, it actually makes no difference at the end of the day). Declarer wins that, plays on Diamonds, and the defense scores a Diamond and two Aces. Ten tricks for Declarer.
Whether or not you choose to open the South hand, that is a matter of personal and partnership taste. We’ll merely discuss the considerations. - Reasons to open: It passes the Rule of 20, and who doesn’t like a hand with two Aces and a King? - Reasons not to open: If you open 1♣ you won’t have an ideal rebid, and if you open 1♦ you will distort your hand-shape. Also, the hand is notable for being Ten-less. And it’s not as if opening 1♣ is going to inconvenience the opponents, is it? Nor are we especially desperate for a Club lead. Our inclination would be to pass, your inclination might well be different.
Assuming that South does choose to pass, West opens 2NT, after which the focus shifts to East. Should he pass 2NT? No, of course not, he has an Ace and is 5-4 in the majors, he’ll want to go to game, even if it may quite often end up going down. So, East is bidding, and how things will unfold will depend on the E-W methods: - If E-W play regular Stayman then this is an easy hand. East will trot out Stayman and West, as it happens, will bid 3♦ (no 4-card major). Now East will bid 3♠ (or 3♥ if he plays Smolen here), and E-W will have no trouble reaching 4♠. - If E-W play Puppet Stayman then there is a problem. If East bids 3♣, then West will bid 3NT (no 4- or 5-card major) and East has to guess whether to pass, or whether to bid 4♠, hoping for three Spades in Partner’s hand. Alternatively, East can forget about Stayman and try a transfer, but that is a gamble that there is no 4-4 Heart fit. Yes, whatever East does, there is a guess involved.
Super-scientists have found the perfect solution to this Puppet Stayman dilemma! It goes like this (after 2NT 3♣): - 3NT shows five Hearts - 3♥ shows no 4- and no 5-card major - Other responses are the same. With this in your arsenal the guessing is eliminated! After 2NT 3♣, West rebids 3♥, and now East can bid 3♠, showing 5-4 in the majors and offering West a choice of game. It’s known as “The Switch”, and after your sometimes forgetful partnership has had a couple of disasters with this, it will become known as “The Dreaded Switch”. Or, hopefully, not.
How does 4♠ do? It’s a rather poor contract but it can be made. Declarer (let’s say East) will have to dump a couple of Heart losers on the minor suit winners, and also finesse against South’s ♠K. Entries are a problem so, unless the defense is helpful, Declarer will have to play Spades from Dummy. Best play is a low Spade from both hands, that eases the entry situation and brings home 4♠. We don’t see many E-W pairs reeling in this one.
East’s 3♣ showed Heart support and game-invitational values, and West showed a minimum opening hand by rebidding only 3♥. The question now is: should East go to game anyway? We think so! It’s a hand which East would have opened if in first seat, and there is four-card support (so much better than just three), and there is a potential source of tricks in Diamonds (that ♦T is a big-looking card). So, we’d say that 4♥ is appropriate here, all the more so as the opposing strong hand will be on opening lead.
Against 4♥, what should North lead? We hate to lead a singleton trump, that has the nasty habit of picking off Partner’s Qxx or Jxxx … the ♣A does not look appealing (and is fatal for the defense) … the ♦K would be wildly ambitious. So that leaves a Spade lead, and from that QT9 holding the standard lead is the Ten. Now try to make 10 tricks by looking at our Play Problem.
South wheels out the Jacoby 2NT machinery and North’s 3♦ shows shortness in that suit. South has no wasted values opposite that shortness and her hand is accordingly improved. 3♥ is a cue-bid, of course, what next? From North’s point of view, the key to making slam is getting some Club help from South. If North cue-bids 4♣ now, that doesn’t really address the issue. Better for North to bid 3♠, saving bidding space and giving South the opportunity to cue-bid Clubs. South obliges and now North sees that slam will have at least a play provided that the partnership has enough Key Cards.
6♠ is a fine contract, but it requires careful play. Please see the Play Problem.
East’s Double shows three-card Spade support and West zips into 4♠.
How many tricks does West make playing in Spades? - If North leads a Diamond then Declarer has 12 tricks. It would be a mistake to try setting up the Clubs, better to take a ruffing finesse in Diamonds and to ruff three Hearts in Dummy. When the ♥A comes down in three rounds, Declarer can count six Spades in his hand, two Diamonds, three Heart ruffs, and (when the ♥A comes down in three rounds) the ♥K. - If North leads a trump then Declarer gets only two ruffs and cannot manage more than 11 tricks.
Not everybody will want to open South’s square 12-count, but whether or not South bids, E-W will probably wind up in 4♥. That’s 10 tricks, Declarer losing just three trump tricks.
North does not have much of a 3♣ preempt, but at this vulnerability almost anything goes. The play in 4♠ is straightforward, with two Aces to be lost and 11 easy tricks for Declarer.
This is a deal where the auction would go more smoothly if N-S were playing strong jump shifts (though not necessarily with a better outcome). Our N-S had a more oblique auction, via a Fourth Suit Forcing sequence. What does South’s sequence show? South has numerous ways to get to 4♠, such as: - 4♠ directly, but that would show a much weaker hand, only with lots of Spades and little else. - Bidding 1♠ and then bidding 4♠ at her second turn, would show a better hand, let’s say game-going values and a self-sustaining suit. - Bidding 1♠, then Fourth Suit Forcing, then 4♠ would show an even better hand. - Bidding 1♠, then Fourth Suit Forcing, then 3♠, then 4♠ is a slower route still, and shows a really good hand.
Should North bid on over 4♠? It’s a debatable point. North should not be deterred by her singleton Spade as South has made it quite that she does not need any Spade help. So, we’d say that North has a close choice between passing and taking another call, that Ace-King-Ace is good for slam purposes, but that’s all there is. Well done, North, if you bid again, perhaps with a 5♦ bid, that should get you to the good slam.
Actually, it’s only a good slam because of two very valuable cards in the North hand, namely the Diamond Jack and that lovely Spade Nine! - If West leads a Diamond then the Jack and Ten allow Declarer to build a Diamond trick and get a Club pitch. - If the defense leads a Club then Declarer wins, cashes ♥AK, ruffs a Heart high and, if the suit were 4-2, would cross to that Spade Nine for another Heart ruff. Later, after trumps are drawn, the ♦A will be an entry to the long Heart. As it happens, that second ruff is unnecessary. - The defense’s best lead happens to be a trump, taking away Dummy’s entry prematurely. Now Declarer has to rely on the rather fortunate 3-3 Heart break.
So, in practical terms, a pretty good slam, but a hard one to reach!
Let us suppose that N-S have a natural 2♣ bid available. After that, many (perhaps most) pairs play that Double is now Stayman and that the rest of the No Trump system is on. That being so, West makes a Jacoby Transfer of 2♦, leading E-W into a super-accept situation. TWG has long extolled the merits of: - 2NT is a good super-accept. - 3♥ is a medium super-accept. - 2♥ can be bid with 4 Hearts and an otherwise rotten 1NT opening (square and/or quacky). Using these methods, East shows a good super-accept by bidding 2NT. Should West try for game? Probably not, though it’s a fairly close decision, we think. If West settles for 3♥ he will want East to be Declarer, so 3♦ is used as a re-transfer to Hearts.
That re-transfer turns out to be necessary. With North on lead, the defense has five tricks, with South on lead they have only four tricks.
3♥ was Smolen, showing game values with 5 Spades and 4 Hearts. Should East choose 3NT or 4♠? - Reasons to bid 3NT: The hand is square, and both minors are stopped. - Reasons to bid 4♠: Most of the HCP are in Partner’s suits, and the Diamond suit could be a weakness in No Trump.
It’s probably fair to say that 3NT will be the winner if West has something in Diamonds and that 4♠ will work out better if West has nothing in Diamonds. In other words, East’s next bid is something of a guess. When West turns out to have the ♦K, it is 10 tricks in both 4♠ and 3NT. How well did you guess?
Assuming that your 1NT range is 15-17, you could: - Either open this hand 1♣, planning to rebid 2NT (showing 18-19) - Or open 1NT, downgrading that 18-count on account of its square shape and the alarming absence of Tens (though we will say that the profusion of Aces and Kings are an argument against not downgrading).
We rather like 1NT ourselves, in large part because it preempts the auction and is less informative to the opponents.
Either way, East declares 3NT, and South leads the Diamond Ten. In standard methods, that lead could be from T9 or from QT9, and there’s no rush for Declarer to finesse that Jack. He does better to win the ♦K in his hand and knock out the ♠A. No doubt North will shift to a Heart, Declarer plays low, and South’s King wins the trick. Now Declarer makes 11 tricks by playing on Hearts himself (and even that won’t be necessary if South reverts to Diamonds, because Declarer will hop up with Dummy’s Ace, felling North’s Queen).
Some players require a better hand than North’s for a Weak Two, or at least a better suit. Each to his/her own, but we’d have no compunction about bidding 2♠ here … nice Spade intermediates, and Ace, a singleton, all sorts of good stuff! Supposing that North does indeed open 2♠, what would you do with the South hand? It’s just about worth investigating slam, so South might start out with a 2NT asking bid. There are various treatments for that bid, of course. Feature-asking is a common method, so are various flavors of the Ogust convention, one of which is: - 3♣ shows a five-card suit (now 3♦ would ask about strength) - 3♦ is a 6-card suit and a poor hand - 3♥ is a 6-card suit and a medium hand - 3♠ is a 6-card suit and a good hand. Using this method, North has a 3♦ bid (though as bad hands go, this one is pretty good, we might be tempted to claim a medium hand), after which South settles for just game.
As it happens, the hands fit well together and 6♠ is not a terrible contract, though it is slightly against the odds. The trumps behave, and Declarer will need to guess the Clubs correctly for 12 tricks. But there won’t be many clues, it will be pretty much a complete guess.
For the second consecutive board, we have a dubious Weak Two, at least in the eyes of some. North charges into 3NT and the play in that contract is very interesting!
East leads the ♠Q and Declarer takes that trick. Now, if Clubs are 3-2, the hand is routine, with Declarer scoring 11 tricks for sure, and a 12th if the ♦J comes down or if West can be caught in a red suit squeeze. That being so, Declarer is advised to consider how to handle a 4-1 Club break, which (if there is one) is likely to be with the long Clubs in the West hand. If West has ♣QJ9x, Declarer will have to lose two Clubs while setting up the suit, and she will set her sights on 10 or 11 tricks. But suppose that East’s singleton is the Queen or Jack or Nine. Then there are (entries permitting) four Clubs available. Here is one line of play: Declarer wins the opening Spade lead A low Club is played to East’s Jack and Dummy’s King The Club Ten is covered by West’s Queen and Declarer’s Ace Declarer’s Club Seven is won by West’s Nine Declarer wins the Diamond return Over to the ♥A, etc That line brought in 11 tricks, but you no doubt noticed that West goofed mightily on defense. He must let Declarer’s Club Seven hold Trick 4! Now Declarer scores only three tricks, for want of entries to the long Club. So, let’s have a do over: Declarer wins the opening Spade lead A low Club is played to East’s Jack and Dummy’s King The Club Ten is covered by West’s Queen and Declarer’s Ace Declarer’s Club Seven holds the trick! Two top Diamonds are cashed The ♥K and ♥A are cashed (Declarer noting East’s ♥Q with special interest) What are East’s last five cards. He could be down to: ♠J9x, ♥J, ♦x. Or maybe: ♠J9x, ♦Jx. We’d say that the latter holding is more likely, as perhaps with ♥QJx, he would have led that suit, rather than attacking his own Spades when his hand is virtually entryless. If Declarer guesses right then he will cross to the ♠K, exit a Spade, and after cashing another Spade, East will be end-played in Diamonds! A nice hand, eh? >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: "Suit Combinations”>> >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Defensive Blocking/Unblocking”>>
South has two reasonable plans here: - Open 1♣ planning to reverse into Hearts if necessary - Open 1NT
Our North opened 1♣ and watched helplessly as North went two down in 3NT after a Spade lead. That -200 won’t be much of a result for N-S but it could have been worse! If South opens 1NT, then West will chime in with 2♠, North will expect a nice penalty, but instead will score -730 when West makes 8 tricks in 2♠ doubled.
An innocent enough part-score auction: - West’s 1♣ is pretty minimum but at least the suit is good. - East’s Double shows both majors. - South bids 1♠ even though her RHO is known to have four of the suit. Well at least she has good intermediates, and a Diamond fit in reserve. - South’s 3♠ bid is inspired by the double fit, with the reassurance of being non-vulnerable.
The Play in 3♠: West might well lay down the ♣A at Trick 1. Now a Heart switch is clear-cut. East takes his Ace and continues the suit to Declarer’s King. Declarer will know that West has a singleton Spade, and that to make up an opening bid for West, Declarer can assume that this singleton must be an honor. He'll suspect that this honor is more likely to be the Ace than the Queen (remember that West’s opening was somewhat on the slender side), so she’ll lead the ♠J from hand, and will be disappointed that she did not find the more spectacular (and successful) play of the ♠K from hand. Anyway, it’s 8 or 9 tricks, depending on the Spade play.
The Play in 3♣: A straightforward 9 tricks.
South’s 3♦ was preemptive, after which both East and West indulged in some pretty optimistic bidding. But fortune favors the brave on this occasion and 10 tricks roll home. At first glance it may appear that Declarer has a loser in each suit, but take a look at the Diamonds. It’s a “frozen” suit, one which neither North nor South can attack without blowing a trick. So, with the Diamonds unable to be broached by the defense, Declarer can set up Dummy’s Clubs for a Diamond pitch in the fullness of time.
We don’t think that the North is quite good enough for a slam try, some might disagree. If you happen to be among the disagreeing, then you may want to use a 2NT gadget here, as described on Board 27.
As it happens, South is super-max for her 2♠ bid, and has four trumps, and yet the slam is still a poor proposition. There are two ways to play 4♥ (or 6♥): - Either lead twice towards the ♦KJxx, hoping for both Diamond honors with West. - Or finesse the ♥J in order to get a Diamond pitch, and then to lead towards the ♦KJxx, guessing the situation with great aplomb if the missing Diamond honors are split. As it happens, all routes lead to 12 tricks when the ♥Q, ♦Q and ♦A are all onside.
East has a slammish hand, but not one which is quite good enough to insist on slam, so Partner’s esteemed opinion must be sought. Added to that, there is the possibility that Partner has raised on three-card support. Some partnerships use a little gadget here, whereby East’s 2NT is an asking bid, to which the responses are: - 3♣: 3-card support, bad hand. - 3♦: 3-card support, good hand. - 3♥: 4-card support, bad hand. - 3♠: 4-card support, good hand.
So, if East bids 2NT, West has a pretty clear-cut 3♥ response and that is probably enough for East to put on the brakes and settle for 4♥.
But we confidently expect a sizeable chunk of the field to play in the quite ghastly slam. But even ghastly slams make once in a while and this is an example. The play goes like this: ♣K is taken by Dummy’s Ace The ♥AK are cashed and the ♥Q obligingly drops Over to the ♥J ♠Q is run around (suppose North does not cover) The last Heart is cashed The Diamonds are cashed
With one Diamond still to be cashed, this is the end-position: North ♠ K6 ♣ 98 Dummy Declarer ♠ J7 ♠ A9 ♦ J ♦ 8 ♣ T ♣ J South ♠ T8 ♣ Q6 Declarer has taken care that his last red-suit winner is in Dummy. When that winner is cashed, North pitches a Club, but South is squeezed: - If she pitches a Club, then the ♣J is the 12th trick - If she pitches a Spade, then the ♠J is led from the board, squashing South’s Ten. That’s an elegant (and very lucky) 12 tricks for Declarer.
And if North does cover the ♠Q with her King, earlier in the play? South still gets squeezed: North Nothing useful Dummy Declarer ♠ J7 ♠ 94 ♦ J ♦ 8 ♣ T ♣ J South ♠ T8 ♣ Q6 Now when the ♦J is cashed: - If South pitches a Spade then the Ten drops under Declarer’s Jack - If South pitches a Club then she can be thrown in with a Club and end-played in Spades. In this second version of the squeeze, though, there is some ambiguity, and it won’t be obvious to Declarer whether to play for the drop or the throw-in. So, earlier in the play, North does well to cover the ♠Q with the King in order to arrive at the ambiguous ending. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Squeeze Defense”>>
West’s 4NT shows the minors and really puts N-S to the sword. Considering the vulnerability, North will probably guess to bid 5♠ now, but what will South do? She might rather like her 4-card Spade support and the ♦K, and be tempted to try 6♠. That won’t work well, as there is a Club loser and no way to avoid a Heart loser.
The play can go various ways, but most of them lead to down one. For example: ♣J opening lead is won by Declarer’s Queen Spade to West’s Ace Club to Dummy’s Ace ♠K, pitching a Diamond Heart to West’s King Club ruff.
However, West can be a star on this board. If he smoothly ducks his Ace at Trick 2, then Declarer will probably finesse the Jack, to her chagrin. That will be down two! Even if (after West’s duck) Declarer somehow guesses correctly and plays the King, she still goes down one (losing two Diamonds instead of one Diamond and one Spade). >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Smooth Ducks”>>
North has game-going values with a bit to spare, added to which her holding in the unbid Spade suit is not that great, and she has good controls. In other words, she cannot be sure that No Trump is the place to be, and she does not want to discourage slam if South has some extras. So, North temporizes with 2♠, a Fourth Suit Forcing bid, designed to keep things flexible.
Over to South. She has a four-loser hand, which some might have considered worth a jump shift rebid earlier. We have our doubts about that, we’d expect a 3♣ jump rebid to show more in the way of HCP. Anyway, if South does rebid 3♣, surely North will charge into slam. So, let’s see if N-S can get there with a more sedate 2♣ rebid in the auction above. We’ll assume that N-S play North’s Fourth Suit Forcing bid of 2♠ as game-forcing, so that allows South to rebid 3♣, bidding out her shape without yet showing her extra strength. The question now is: what should South do when North shows Diamond support?
South could futz around by cue-bidding 3♠ or 4♣ but that won’t achieve much, will it? Surely South is good enough to bid Roman Key Card here. You might not like this idea, considering that there are two Heart losers in the South hand, but the bidding strongly suggests that North has a Heart control. Bear in mind, she hasn’t bid No Trump yet, so cannot have that much in Spades. And if that is so, then where are her values if not in Hearts?
So, Roman Key Card it is! 4NT is a rather clunky way of Key-Carding when the agreed suit is a minor, which is why many play Minorwood, which has the benefit of keeping things low, and which also allows the partnership to bale out in 4NT if the Key Card response is deficient. If you are playing Minorwood here, then does 4♦ qualify? Yes, indeed, because: - Diamonds have been agreed - The auction is already game-forcing. So, South bids 4♦, North responds 4NT (two key cards without the Queen of trumps), and South bids 6♦.
The play is straightforward. If West fails to cash his ♠A on opening lead then it goes away and Declarer makes an overtrick. If the ♠A is cashed then it’s 12 tricks only.
That’s a rather tortuous auction, arriving in the best spot of 5♦. But we are sure some pairs will languish in a Diamond part-score, and others will try a Spade contract (only nine tricks if East finds the ♥A opening lead). North might well have passed 2♦, and we don’t expect a lot of 5♦ contracts.
Will 5♦ make? If East cashes the ♥A at Trick 1, it will all come down to a trump guess. - Do you play the Ace on the first round? That has a 66% chance of holding the losers to one. - Do you finesse the first round, and play the Ace on the second round? That’s 70%. - Do you finesse on the first round, then finesse again? That’s 76%. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Suit Combinations”>>
So, finessing twice is the percentage play, and it’s also the winning play on the actual deal. With that play in trumps it is 11 or 12 tricks, depending on the opening lead.
How many Hearts would you open in the North seat? - A Straight-Arrow 1♥? This hand passes the Rule of 20, and that will be enough for many to prefer 1♥ to a Weak Two bid. In fact, any hand with a six-card suit and 11 points passes the Rule of 20, which is why many players have lowered their Weak Two upper limit to 10. - A Retro 2♥? Well, maybe not that retro, after all this hand is all about Hearts, isn’t it, and a Weak Two is quite reasonable, despite the 11th point. - A Swashbuckling 3♥? Yes, that’s the ticket, at least given the favorable vulnerability. White vs Red, it’s often a good plan to preempt one more than usual, and when the suit is that good it’s an even better plan. Note that the North hand, while by some measures a one-of-a-suit opening bid, does not have much in the way of defense, another good reason to preempt.
If North is of the swashbuckling persuasion, then she’ll get a great result. 3♥ will be passed out, and E-W will score six tricks and will be plus a rather feeble 100, instead of +170 or +620 in a Spade contract.
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