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Hand Analyses 4th February, 2009
There’s an abundance of links on this page, here’s what they all mean: - Notations such as Bidding Quiz (North) are links to the weekly Bidding Quiz, a selection of the 15-20 most interesting bidding situations of the week. - Each week we pick out two or three hands which are suitable for presentation in problem format, as in Play Problem 203 (West), linking you to a page with only two hands on display. Solve the problem first, then see the solution and the entire deal. - Some analyses contain references to bidding conventions, and you’ll see links to articles in our Convention Library such as Roman Key Card - In BridgeOpedia we have categorized by theme the entire history of the most instructive Wednesday Game hands, two year’s worth. Occasionally you will see a purple arrow, linking to the relevant BridgeOpedia section. For example, in this week’s Board 3, Declarer executes a Throw-In play. Adjacent to the text for that hand you will see the link >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Throw-In Play”>> which will transport you to the collection of hands with the same theme.
South’s 3♠ was forcing and she might equally have well have gone directly to 4♠ over 2NT. But, one way or the other, surely the entire field will be in 4♠, making 11 tricks when both the ♥A and ♣A are onside.
After a 2NT opening, very few partnerships can get out in 4♣, so most Norths will labor in 2NT. That’s down one when East leads the ♠J. Declarer hopefully plays the Queen but when that is covered with the Queen, it’s a case of undertrick minimization. Declarer wins, and does better to play on Clubs (they require a 2-2 break, which is 40% likely), rather than Diamonds which require the 36% 3-3 break. Down only one in that case. Of course the hand would have played better from the South hand, that way the defender with the ♠K would be on opening leading and 8 tricks can be made.
Back to the bidding. West might well have thrown in a light third-seat opening, all the more so considering the vulnerability. Perhaps that would lead to this auction: West North East South Pass Pass 1♥ Dbl 1♠ Pass 2♠ 2NT All Pass Different auction, same rotten contract.
Against 4♥, West would do well to lead a trump, after which Declarer’s best chance of coming to 10 tricks is to establish the Clubs, as follows: Win the trump lead on the board, low Club to East’s King; win trump return in hand; Club ruff; back to the ♠Q; Club ruff; back to ♠J; draw the last trump and concede a Club and a Diamond. Declarer never does score the ♠A and K♠, instead her tricks are 4 trumps, 2 Club ruffs, 2 Spades, and 2 Clubs.
For you double dummy enthusiasts there is a way to make 11 tricks! Win the opening Heart lead Cash ♠Q and ♠J Cross to Dummy with a Heart Cash the ♠A and ♠K, pitching a Diamond (East cannot ruff the 4th round of Spades!) Club to East’s Ace Here is the end-position: North ♠ ♥ JT ♦ QJ76 ♣ West East ♠ ♠ ♥ 8 ♥ ♦ 9832 ♦ AKT ♣ 4 ♣ AT2 South ♠ ♥ A9 ♦ ♣ QJ97 Now, East cannot play the ♣A (that would be twelve tricks), so does best to try the ♦A. But Declarer pitches a Club on this and now whatever East does presents Declarer with her 11th trick. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Throw-In Play”>>
East’s 2♣ was an inverted raise, showing Club support, no 4-card major and at least game-invitational values. West may have only 7 HCP but surely he’s still full value for that 2♣. South sensibly passed, nothing good could happen by making a Takeout Double, that would serve no purpose other than to tell E-W where the missing high cards were. How about West’s 3♥? That is generally played as a splinter, after which East chose to bid 5♣. It turns out that E-W have 12 easy tricks thanks to the lovely Diamond fit, but that’s a tough slam to bid on a combined 21 HCP. In fact, we’ll bet that many E-W pairs do not even get to game.
West has no reason to make a slam try with that mediocre 16-count, his hand is just not good enough. In fact, those Wests who get carried away may well go minus even if they put the brakes on at the 5-level.
The play in 4♠ is very interesting! First of all what is best percentage play in the trump suit? The three obvious lines are: (a) Cash the Ace … that’s 60% to pick up the suit for one loser (b) Run the Jack, and lead towards the Ten on the second round … that’s 64% (c) And the winner is to finesse the Eight on the first round … that’s 70%
Fascinating stuff, no doubt, but there would be a good reason to finesse the Eight, even if it were not the correct Spade play. Do you see what it is? Please see the Play Problem.
Some comments on this auction: - North’s 2♦: Why not a Negative Double? North has the unbid suits, for sure, but the hand is good enough to start bidding the suits. It seems better to bid 2♦ saying “5 Diamonds and 10+ HCP” than to double saying “Something in the minors, 7 or 8+ HCP”. After bidding 2♦, North’s plan is to bid 3♣ if she gets the chance. - East’s 4♦: No doubt East wishes that he were not Red vs White, switch the vulnerability around and he might still be bidding. But even Red vs White some strong action is called for and so East decides to splinter with 4♦. A bit much with only 5 HCP at this vulnerability? Nah! Six-card support, and a void must count for something and there is even an outside King! - South’s 5♦: South might have thought about making a slam-try with 4♠. Is South good enough? She doesn’t need much from Partner, ♦AKxxxx and the ♣A would be enough. But Partner never has the perfect hand, so perhaps it’s better to skip the slam try.
In the play, 5♦ makes 11 tricks when one finesse works and the other one does not. As for 5♠ the defense can take 4 tricks in theory (two Hearts and two Clubs) but one of those tricks might get away if North is caught napping: The defense cashes two rounds of Heart Declarer ruffs the third round of Hearts Club to Dummy’s King (while North is dozing) Spade to the Ace Ruff out the Diamonds and Hearts Dummy now exits with a low Club and the defense if end-played … if South’s Jack wins the trick she must concede a ruff and sluff … and if North overtakes the Jack then Dummy’s Ten sets up. Yes, North walked straight into that one, she had to hop up with the ♣A on the first round. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Throw-In Play”>>
East’s 2♠ is non-forcing, of course, if he had some values he would be doubling 1NT. Leading against 2♠, the most attractive lead by the South hand would appear to be a Diamond, as there is a good chance of getting a ruff (increased by the strong Spade holding). Bingo! The defense gets its ruff and ends up scoring two Diamonds and three trumps. 8 tricks for Declarer.
Suppose that South, being without the benefit of Hand Records, chooses to lead the ♣J. Can the defense still come to 5 tricks? Declarer wins the ♣A, pitching a Diamond, and leads a low Spade from the board. North can hop up with the Ace, cash ♦AK, and lead a third Diamond, giving South a trump promotion and their 5 tricks. That may not be obvious to North, but no matter, in that case South wins the ♠K, shifts to Diamonds, and the defense get their trump promotion that way. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Trump Promotion”>>
Fanatical Total Tricksters always super-accept a transfer when they have 4 trumps, while others reserve the right not to do so when they have a poor hand. Our South obviously belonged to the discretionary school of thought, and chose not to super-accept, being turned off by the minimum point-count and the doubleton Queen.
Anyway, we’d expect most of the field to reach 4♥ but we’d be surprised if many of them made it. There is no reason for Declarer to guess the trump situation which leaves her with four inescapable losers (a Spade, a trump and two Clubs). To avoid the ignominy of going down two, Declarer must also avoid a Diamond loser, but she’ll be spared the anxiety of taking the Diamond finesse because West is end-played at Trick 1! If West leads a black suit that will provide an extra trick and a Diamond pitch, and if West leads a Diamond he does Declarer’s work. It’ll be down one for just about everybody.
If East leads a Heart against 4♠ then the defense has three obvious tricks. But the Heart lead is far from appealing, and he’ll probably start out with the ♣K or a low Diamond. It makes little difference, so let’s assume a Diamond lead. How would you play the hand? You could take the trump finesse, here’s what could happen: - If the finesse loses (45%) then it’s 10 tricks when the defense promptly cashes its Hearts. - If the ♠K is offside and 4-0 (5%) then there will be no finesse and Declarer will probably make 10 tricks. - If the finesse wins and the suit if 4-0 (5%) then it’s probably 10 tricks - If the finesse wins and the suit is 3-1 (19%) then it’s 11 tricks - If the finesse wins and the suit is 2-2 (20%) then it’s 12 tricks
Can these odds be improved by playing first on Diamonds, trying to get the Hearts away? Indeed they can, especially if the opening Diamond lead suggests a 4-3 break in the suit. If that is the case then four rounds of Diamonds are played, Declarer pitching two Hearts. The defense will ruff the 4th Diamond in one hand or the other but now Declarer has 11 tricks by cross-ruffing (he won’t finesse the Spade), and 12 tricks under some circumstances (for example if East has 3 Diamonds and ♠Kx). Definitely a better line! >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Cross-Ruffing”>>
It’s hard to get too excited about this deal! West’s 1♦ was a reasonable 3rd seat effort, bidding for the lead as much as anything else. After that, North reaches the par spot of 2♠. Hang on, we found something to get excited about after all! As North you will be playing in 2♠ after the defense plays ♣A and then K♣. Please try the Play Problem where you will be expected to make 8 tricks.
After West’s rebid has shown 18-19 HCP, East draws deeply upon his deductive powers and concludes that slam can be made. There’s certainly no point in bidding 6♣ when 6NT is a certainty to make, and the real question is whether E-W can find their way to a grand slam. Our featured East did not bother to explore, but a more optimistic fellow in that seat might have checked for Aces with Gerber (it’s conceivable that an Ace is missing), and when he got the right response he might gamble 7♣ or 7NT.
As it happens, West has just the right hand for 7NT, with the ♠J and ♣Q being vital cards. And that ♣T is also not without merit, it improves the contract’s chances in the case of a 4-1 Club break. Anyway, well (or optimistically bid) if you got to a grand slam.
In the above auction, East’s 4NT was invitational to slam (with 5 Spades, of course), it was not Ace-asking (see System Note). West had shown 20-21 and had a minimum in HCP and that ugly doubleton Queen. But, on the bright side, West had great controls, 3-card support, a ruffing value and a promising 5-card suit. So, 6♠ seemed obvious enough.
We suppose that North will lead the ♣J or the ♦Q. If it’s the Club Jack then Declarer’s line of play is: win the opening lead with the ♣Q, draw trumps, and ruff out the Diamonds. That’s 13 tricks if Diamonds are 3-3, but only 12 on the actual layout. Note the importance of winning the opening lead on the board with the ♣Q, Declarer ♣AK are both needed to set up the Diamonds. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Entry Management”>>
If North finds the most unfortunate lead of the ♦Q then it’s 13 tricks. Declarer wins the Ace, draws trumps, cashes ♦K, and now has a ruffing finesse against North’s Jack.
System Note Here are a couple of auctions where Responder’s 4NT is invitational: 1NT 2♥ 2NT 3♥ 2♠ 4NT 3♠ 4NT Both sequences show 5 Spades and invite slam. That’s all very well, but suppose that Responder has longer Spades and really does want to use Blackwood. The standard solution is to use Texas and then bid 4NT, as in: 1NT 4♥ 2NT 4♥ 4♠ 4NT 4♠ 4NT
While we are on the subject, how about these two auctions? 1NT 2♥ 2NT 3♥ 2♠ 4♣ 3♠ 4♣ Some pairs use the first auction as a splinter, but there’s much to be said for using 4♣ as a cheap way of invoking Roman Key Card. You could also use 4♣ as Roman Key Card in the second auction, but that is less appealing, what is Responder supposed to do with a good Heart-Club two-suiter?
South’s 3♥ looks eminently reasonable, but it could go for a whopping 1100 on perfect defense. In this case, the definition of perfect defense is to keep leading Diamonds (or ♠A and shift to Diamonds). If that happens then Declarer can do no better than to score 5 trump tricks. But, West may err by cashing the ♠A and then shifting to a Club. This reduces the damage to 800. And West can further assist our distressed Declarer by returning a Club … now West is ruffing one of Declarer’s Club losers with his trump winner and the penalty is suddenly down to 500 (and a good board for N-S).
But we don’t expect any of that to happen, surely West will insist on playing 4♠. North leads a Heart to South’s Ace, and no doubt West will false-card with the Queen, trying to create the illusion that North started with ♥95. But South has no reason to fall for that malarkey, all the more so when there is nothing to be gained by leading up to Dummy’s intimidating minor suits. So, North gets her ruff, and a natural trump trick as well, holding Declarer to 10 tricks. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Crossing Their Signals”>>
System Note Let’s assume that you play Texas Transfers as well as the Jacoby variety. Let’s next assume that you are all set to make your Texas bid when RHO jumps into the auction with some bid or the other. Is Texas still on? Yes, up to a point, and that point is usually considered to be 3♣. But, if the opponents bid 3♦ or higher, then Texas is off. On the actual deal, suppose that South feebly bids only 2♥. Now, West can bid 4♥ as Texas, getting the contract played from the right side. It won’t be obvious to South to lead ♥A and another Heart, she might well try for a ruff of her own by leading her singleton Diamond. Now, it’s 11 tricks, an appropriate punishment for South’s failure to preempt.
North’s square 15-count is certainly not worth a slam try, and a more relevant issue is whether or not she should try Stayman on the way to game. It’s true that North does not have a ruffing value in her hand, but that’s no reason to assume that Opener won’t have one in her hand, all the more so as North’s high cards are Aces and Kings, and she is not loaded up with Queens and Jacks.
Against 3NT, West will no doubt lead the ♠Q (that Diamond suit is unlikely to set up), and it turns out to be a most friendly hand for Declarer. When the Club and Heart finesses work it’s 12 tricks, and 13 if Declarer gets the Diamonds right.
This set of boards is loaded with slams which are either ridiculously lucky or virtually impossible to bid. This particular slam comes under the former category. We do hope that you refrained from finding this slam, it has less than a 4% probability of making (requires 2-2 Spades and South has to have the doubleton or singleton ♣K). +480 for E-W at every table?
3NT is the obvious spot and Declarer has 8 top tricks. The 9th will no doubt come from whichever major suit West attacks with his opening lead. +400 for all the N-S pairs who bid this game (which should be most of them).
East has a typical Rule-of-20-inspired 5-4 11-count opening bid, and West invited with 3♥. East has no reason to accept that invitation with his minimum, and it turns out to be a not-so-great game anyway. There are three certain losers, and, if Diamonds are 4-2, then the defense has two chances to negotiate a ruff for their 4th trick … the first chance is on opening lead, the second would be when they got in with the ♥A. But as it happens, Diamonds are 3-3 and there is no defensive ruff. But Declarer still has some guessing to do if she is to make 10 tricks, specifically she must guess the whereabouts of the ♦T. As she needs two Diamond tricks, not just one, logic says that she should finesse against North, making two Diamond tricks possible, even if North has 4 of them. Bingo! That’s 10 tricks, how many did you make?
East doesn’t have much of a 2NT bid, but it just about qualifies, we suppose. Against 2NT it seems normal enough to lead a Spade, in which case a low one would be the lead of choice. Alas for the defense, this turns out to be ruinous (as would the ♠Q lead). Declarer cheaply wins the ♠T. Now Declarer plays on Diamonds, and will eventually score 3 Spades, a Heart, 2 Diamonds and 2 Clubs. +120!
Sometimes sensible auctions arrive in ugly contracts and this one is truly ugly. We’ll spare you the gory details, except to say that down two is as good as Declarer can reasonably expect.
3NT is a pretty hopeless contract, which is not surprising as East and West both have pretty hopeless hands. East’s 2NT showed 11-12 HCP which is what he has, but that square shape diminishes the hand somewhat, and we wonder if East might not have been better off bidding a 6-10 1NT. Or, if that doesn’t appeal, perhaps fudging a 1♦ response. Over to West. He has 14 HCP which is normally enough to raise Partner’s game invitation to 3NT. But West also is cursed with square distribution and a complete absence of Aces and Tens, so perhaps he should pass 2NT.
Anyway, the bottom line here is that most pairs will reach 3NT and on anything but the most generous of defenses they will be down one.
West might have been tempted to make a game try, and if he does that will get his side one level too high. Against 2♠ (or 3♠) North will no doubt lead the ♣J which will be a pleasant sight for Declarer. But it won’t help him that much. The losing trump finesse is taken, the defense grabs its Diamond tricks, and 8 tricks is the maximum.
West’s 4♣ was a cue-bid agreeing Diamonds, and this particular pair were using Minorwood. So, 4♦ was Roman Key Card and 4♥ showed one Key Card (1430 responses).
6♦ is a terrific slam provided that South does not lead a Spade. But South surely will lead a Spade and now the contract is in serious jeopardy. Here are some possible lines of play (after winning the ♠A at Trick 1): - Cash the ♦A and finesse the ♣J, planning to get the Spade loser away on the third round of trumps. This works whenever the ♦K is singleton, or when the ♣Q is onside and Clubs are 4-3 (or when someone started with 2 Clubs and either ♦Kx or a singleton Diamond). We calculate this line at 45% - Finesse the ♦J, and cash the Ace. If the Diamonds come in there’s no problem, but if North started with three to the King there is still work to be done and Declarer will play on Clubs as before. This line comes in at about 41%. - Run the ♦Q which North covers if he has the King, and then finesse against North’s Ten. This one appears to be worst of all, with a success rate of 32%. But, perversely, it is the only line of play which manages to bring in the shaky slam.
North’s 3♥ showed a good hand with Spade support and the obvious 4♠ contract was reached. North had no reason to go looking for slam, it was clear that E-W had a big Heart fit and that North had wastage opposite South’s shortness.
If West leads a Heart, then Dummy takes her two Heart tricks (pitching Diamonds). Then a Spade to the King and back to Dummy. With what? A Diamond looks slightly safer, so the ♦A wins and another Spade is led. At this point East can give West a Club ruff, but it doesn’t help the defense as West is ruffing Declarer’s Club loser (Declarer must play low from hand on this trick). So, 10 tricks either way.
We have to say that leading a Heart against 4♠ should not have looked very promising to West. With perfect hindsight we suggest the more dynamic lead of the ♦K. Dummy wins the Ace, cashes the ♥AK (pitching Diamonds), and leads a Spade. Will East be up to the challenge? He must rise with the ♠A, and give West a Club ruff. West plays the ♦Q which East ruffs, and then another Club ruff beats the contract. Did you find that defense?
If North sells out to 2♠ then the defense can score 5 tricks in this astonishing fashion: ♣A opening lead Club ruff Low Heart to South’s Queen Another Club ruff With the ♠A still to come this dazzling defense holds Declarer to 8 tricks. But in real life it will be 9 tricks. South leads a Heart, and the Club shift gets the defense one ruff, but South has no entry to provide the second ruff.
With such a good trump suit and with a singleton Club, and also being non-vulnerable, many Norths will compete to 3♥, which may receive a highly speculative Double from West at one or two tables. East leads the ♠K and when Dummy goes down Declarer can count 5 trump tricks and two Aces. The only possibility for more is in Diamonds, either the ♦K, or the 13th Diamond, or even a Diamond ruff. Here’s how the play develops: ♠K won by Declarer’s Ace Diamond to the King and West’s Ace Trump return (good shift!) won on the board Diamond from the board, low from West (more good play!), won by East ♠Q is cashed East’s ♠J is ruffed by West (West’s third fine play!) Heart won by Declarer Another Diamond is won by West Another Heart, finally ending Declarer’s hopes for a Diamond ruff! After this fine defense Declarer is held to just 7 tricks. It’s worth reviewing West’s fine performance in this defense: (a) He spotted the danger of that 4th round Diamond ruff and shifted to a trump. (b) When Declarer played the second round of Diamonds, West played low. He had seen East’s Nine on the second round. If that was to show a holding of 9x then Declarer’s play made little sense, she would be needlessly risking a Diamond ruff. So, it seemed more likely that East had started with J9. Of course, that Nine on the first round could have been from 9543, but with holding East would probably play the Five. (c) Ruffing Partner’s Spade winner was certainly flashy, but actually it was the easiest of the three plays. Anyway, if you were North and you bid 3♥, and got victimized by a Double and three fine plays by West, then -300 will be your result. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Deadly Shifts”>>
At her first turn, South might have doubled or tried Michaels, neither of them completely unreasonable. East, with a known 9-card fit, felt free to bid up the the 3-level and that was too high, doubled for -500.
Even though 2♠ doubled goes for 800 we expect the whole field to play in 3NT from the South side. - If West politely leads Partner’s Spades, then Declarer has the timing for 11 tricks, scoring 2 Spades, 2 Hearts, 6 Diamonds and a Club. - If West leads a Heart, the defense does a trick better. But it has to be the ♥Q lead, after which the Hearts can be set up before Declarer can establish her extra tricks in both Spades and Clubs.
West’s hand does not pass the Rule of 20, but who could possibly resist opening with Ace, King, Ace, and that lovely Spade suit? East’s miserable 10-count is worth no more than 2♠ and that is probably where West will play it.
There may seem to be a danger that Declarer will lose 6 tricks in 2♠. The defense can score a trump, two Hearts, a Diamond, and possibly two Clubs. Of course, it won’t help the defense to get a Heart ruff, that will be at the expense of a natural trump trick. However, North will no doubt come to Declarer’s rescue by leading one of the minor suits: - If North leads a Club, the things are resolved in Declarer’s favor at Trick 1. Dummy plays low, forcing South’s King and it’s 8 easy tricks. - If North leads a Diamond and South covers with the King, then Declarer makes no fewer than 9 tricks. - If North leads Diamond and South does not cover, then things are more interesting. Can you make 9 tricks now? Yes, but it takes some really good guessing!
After South’s 2♣, most pairs play that Double is Stayman and that the rest of the system is on. So, West’s 2♦ was a transfer.
Back on Board 8 we had a potential super-accept situation, and suggested that we don’t have to super-accept just because we have 4 cards in Partner’s major. On Board 28, though, East has a clear super-accept by any standards, and the question is “How does your partnership super-accept?” This subject came up in last month’s Wednesday Game, and we make no apology for recommending the same method again: - Opener may decline to make a super-accept if she has a truly rotten hand. “Rotten” is characterized more by square shape and quackiness than it is by HCP. - Opener bids 2NT with a good hand and 4 Hearts (now 3♥ is a “re-transfer”) - Opener bids 3♥ with a middle-of-the-road hand and 4 Hearts. The benefit of this method (other than being really easy to remember) is that it doesn’t offer the defenders any gratuitous information about Opener’s hand. For example, with the East hand, after 1NT 2♦, some would rebid 3♣ showing a doubleton. Not a good method in our view, that information is of interest to Responder 1% of the time, but is of interest to the defenders all of the time.
OK, that’s the end of our standard super-accept sales pitch, now back to the actual hand. Using the above methods, this one looks like a clear-cut 2NT bid. Not only is it maximum in terms of HCP, it also has a ruffing value and good high-card structure. After 2NT, West retransfers, which is just as well on the actual hand as this protects East’s ♣KJ from an opening Club lead.
If South leads a Spade or a Club, Declarer has an easy route to 11 tricks, so let’s see what happens if South fortuitously finds a Diamond opening lead. To Declarer that lead will look ominously like a singleton and he’ll no doubt play on Hearts right away, hoping that the ♥A is with South. But no, it’s with North and the Club shift holds Declarer to 10 tricks. Of course, 11 tricks are possible, but we don’t recommend the line of play: Win the Diamond, cash ♠A, then Q♠ covered by the Ace and ruffed, back to hand with a Diamond, pitch a Club on a Spade and play on trumps. Highly risky and more likely to produce 9 tricks than 11.
What would be your choice of opening bid with the North hand? With the Clubs being stronger and longer than the Hearts it may seem a trifle odd to open 1♥. But the danger with opening 1♣ is that Partner (or one of the opponents) will bid 1♠. Now, is the hand really good enough to reverse with 2♥? It’s way short in terms of HCP, but it does have good playing strength and only 5 losers. Others may have stronger opinions on this, but speaking for ourselves, we could go either way.
4♥ is a rather scary contract and one could easily imagine that, on a bad day, it might be down a couple of tricks. Let’s suppose that the defense leads the unbid Diamond suit and that Declarer ruffs the second round. Already, Declarer is flirting with disaster if trumps are 4-1 offside. Declarer goes after her side-suit next, cashing ♣A, ♣K and ruffing a Club with the King. Now, the J♥ is run around, then another finesse, trumps are drawn and it’s 11 tricks.
East was too good for a 15-17 1NT opening, don’t you think? Not only is it a maximum 17-count, but there is also the 5-card suit. For some, that alone would be enough to disqualify the hand from 1NT, but this one is better yet, it also has those powerful fillers in the long suit. What should East do the second time around? Here are some options: - Bid 3NT? This is usually played as showing 15-17 HCP. But the bid would be too space-consuming and might preempt E-W out of their own slam. Also, bidding 3NT would be inconsistent, as East had already decided that the hand was too good for 1NT. - Bid 2NT: This purports to show 12-14, but East would take one more bid later on to show around 18-19. For example, if (over 2NT), West happened to bid 3NT then East bids 4♦ showing 18-19 with a Diamond fit. - Bid 3♦: For this bid we would certainly prefer a 4th Diamond, but the hand has such excellent slam potential it seems like a good idea to show a fit right away. So, 3♦ would be our choice.
Over to the West hand. He could have responded 1♠, but correctly decided that his hand was good enough to bid out his full pattern. His plan was to bid 2♦ (game-forcing in the E-W methods), then Spades, then Spades again (if possible). However, that plan goes out of the window when East supports Diamonds immediately. Of course, West has a perfect hand for Roman Key Card, so he bids 4NT and, when East shows 1 or 4 he bids the Diamond grand slam (bidding 7NT would be a bit piggish, West does not know that the Spades are coming in).
But that wasn’t an entirely satisfactory auction, was it? Supposing that, after 4NT, East has responded 5♥, showing two Key Cards without the ♦Q. Oops! Now E-W are too high! Using 4NT for Roman Key Card when a minor suit has been agreed does not work well, all too often an inconvenient response gets the bidding too high. Two alternatives are: - Minorwood: With this method, 4 of the agreed minor is used as Roman Key Card. The auction has to be already game forcing. So, in the above auction, West bids 4♦ over 3♦, and now if East were to show only two cards E-W can escape in 5♦. - Redwood: In this case, the asking bid is 4 of the suit above the agreed minor. However, that wouldn’t work on this hand as East has bid Hearts naturally. So, West would have to bid 4♠ as Roman Key Card.
E-W stop short of game, but how many tricks will East make? South will probably lead a Spade (nothing else appeals), and North takes her Ace. Let’s say that North continues Spades, ruffed on the board. Now a Heart to the King and the Ace. Another Spade is ruffed and now it’s decision time! Will Declarer correctly guess the Heart situation and make 10 tricks? Before making his decision, East will weight up the evidence: - North showed up with ♠AQ and yet did not open 2♠. It looks safe to assume that the North has 5 Spades and South has 4. - When North won the opening Spade lead, she did not fire back a Diamond in search of a ruff. Surely, North has two Diamonds and South has 5. - Having passed originally, South overcalled a vulnerable 2♦. Would she bid that with ♠ Jxxx, ♥ AJ, ♦ AJxxx, ♣ xx? Probably not. Yes, South’s length in Spades and Diamonds makes it likely that she has fewer Hearts than North. And her 2♦ bid suggests some distribution. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Counting Distribution”>>
Postscript North’s awful (yes, we do believe that it was!) 2♦ overcall lost in two ways. Firstly, it gave Declarer a road map to 10 tricks. Secondly, it lost the N-S Spade fit. Yes, South does better to make a passed hand Double. That bid does find the Spade fit, where N-S can make 9 tricks. True, they may not compete up to 3♠ but, however high they go, at least they will be competing in the right suit!
East’s 2♠ was forcing for one round (some play it as constructive but not forcing), and West beats a hasty retreat to 3♦. There’s something to be said for an opening lead of the ♥A after this auction. Declarer has 8 obvious tricks, where are the extras? A couple of Club ruffs on the board would get Declarer up to 10, so North promptly shifts to a trump. Declarer wins that in his hand, and reverts to Plan B by ducking a Spade. Back comes another trump, and, with trumps 2-2, Declarer has 10 tricks once again. The 9th trick is a Club ruff in Dummy, and the 13th Spade is the 10th. That line of play also brings in 10 tricks if trumps are 3-1 and Spades are 3-3.
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