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Hand Analyses 2nd July, 2008
There’s an abundance of links on this page, here’s what they all mean: - Notations such as Bidding Quiz (North) are links to the weekly Bidding Quiz, a selection of the 15-20 most interesting bidding situations of the week. - Each week we pick out two or three hands which are suitable for presentation in problem format, as in Play Problem 203 (West), linking you to a page with only two hands on display. Solve the problem first, then see the solution and the entire deal. - Some analyses contain references to bidding conventions, and you’ll see links to articles in our Convention Library such as Roman Key Card - In BridgeOpedia we have categorized by theme the entire history of the most instructive Wednesday Game hands, two year’s worth. Occasionally you will see a purple arrow, linking to the relevant BridgeOpedia section. For example, in this week’s Board 2, Declarer uses some Restricted choice logic. Adjacent to the text for that hand you will see the link >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Restricted Choice”>> which will transport you to the collection of hands with the same theme.
There’s nothing too exciting happening on our first board this week. If South is allowed to play it in 1NT she will no doubt be down a trick or two, and if East competes to 2♦ then he will be the one going down.
If North is of the persuasion that opens 1NT with a 5-card major then she will probably play it there. Against 1NT, East has the obvious opening lead of the Queen, which asks Partner to drop the Jack if he has that card. When West obliges (and Declarer holds up the Ace) East knows that it is safe to continue the suit. Declarer wins the third Spade and must now tackle the Hearts. Entries to the board are in short supply, so Declarer cashes the A♥ and leads toward the Jack. With West having supplied the T♥ on the first round (and assuming that East plays low on the second round), Declarer does best to finesse the Seven (it’s a variation on the theme of Restricted Choice). Nicely done, this line of play is good for 8 tricks. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Restricted Choice”>>
Some Norths will prefer to open 1♥ after which we hope that there will be some Easts who will overcall their chunky 4-card Spade suit. The end result will probably be a 3♥ contract by North. This is a more precarious contract than 1NT but it will score better if Declarer finds the following line: K♠ lead, ducked by Declarer Spade continuation won by Declarer’s Ace A♦ and Q♦ are cashed Heart to Dummy’s Jack K♦ is cashed, Declarer pitching a Club Heart to the Ace Spade ruff Diamond ruffed by Declarer and overruffed by East Spade ruff by Declarer Club to the Jack and East’s Ace Now, with two tricks left, East has the last remaining trump, but Declarer must score her 9th trick with the K♣.
2♦ was New Minor Forcing, and then after 2NT we’d say that North was borderline between inviting slam with 4NT (which South would surely refuse) and bidding 6NT directly.
Playing in 6NT, let’s assume that West avoids the tragic Diamond lead and finds the safe Spade lead instead. Declarer can count 5 Spades (assuming no disastrous breaks), 3 Hearts, 2 Diamonds and a Club. That’s 11, where is the 12th coming from? Hearts could be 3-3, the Q♦ could be correctly guessed, or the A♣ could be onside. One possibility is to lead towards the Club honors and, if the King holds, to lead later towards the Queen. The trouble with this line is that a wily West will duck the first Club and the second Club lead will sink the contract. So, if West looks potentially wily, we would try this line: Win the J♠ Cross to the A♠ Club to the King, cleverly ducked by West Cash the K♥ Cross to the A♥ Cash the remaining Spades, pitching a Heart, Diamond and Club from hand Here is the end-position with one Spade left to play: Dummy ♠ 8 ♥ Q4 ♦ AT ♣ 5 West East ♠ ♠ ♥ ♥ J9 ♦ 853 ♦ Q976 ♣ AJT ♣ Declarer ♠ ♥ ♦ KJ42 ♣ Q9 On the last Spade, East will be forced to part with a Diamond, and West can afford another Club. But what should Declarer pitch? If she’s planning to take the Diamond finesse, she will pitch a Club, then cash the Q♥ (pitching another Club), and score the last 4 tricks with the Diamonds. Making a whopping 13 tricks! >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Smooth Ducks”>>
Against 4♥, West does best to find a passive lead, let’s say a trump. Declarer wins the trump on the board, finesses the Q♠, draws trumps ending on the board, and finesses the J♠. But, with Spades 5-1, and with normal play, Declarer scores no more than 3 Spades, 4 trumps plus a ruff, A♠ and 2 Clubs, for a total of 11 tricks. Unfortunately for the defense, though, West is quite likely to find the K♦ opening lead, setting up Declarer’s 12th trick in that suit.
Double Dummy Note Yes, Declarer can score 12 tricks after a trump lead if he cashes the A♣ and ducks a Club!
South’s 2♣ was an Inverted Raise, and the obvious 3♣ contract is reached. 10 tricks look easy enough.
If South are not playing Inverted Minors, then South will make a limit raise of 3♣. This might work rather well because West is likely to succumb to the temptation of bidding 3♠. North will unsportingly double this and lead a Diamond. South wins two Diamonds and gives Partner a ruff, returning the Two as a suit preference for Clubs. But North won’t want to risk an accident (for example, suppose that South has only 3 Diamonds and West has the K♣), and, as a second Diamond ruff won’t help, she’ll cash her two Aces and await her natural trump trick. Down 2 will be +300 and a good board for N-S.
East’s Redouble showed 3-card Spade support, after which E-W wisely sold out to 3♣.
The defense cashes two Hearts and shifts to Diamonds. When Declarer gets in he has to decide how to play the trump suit and who has the Q♠. For trumps, the percentage play is to take the double finesse against North, playing her for one of the missing honors, This works out just fine and now it’s all down to that Q♠. By the time that the moment of truth arrives Declarer will be fairly sure that South started with 2=3=5=3 distribution. Of the missing points, North will have shown up with all of them except the K♣, with the Q♠ still unaccounted for. Is a 2=3=5=3 hand with 3 HCP’s enough for that 2♦ bid? Perhaps not, and that slender clue might be enough for our Declarer to guess right.
West’s 3♥ in this situation is usually based on an extra trump rather than extra strength, so North could be reasonably confident that E-W had 9 trumps. So, she could count 17 total trumps and therefore a likely 17 total tricks. Based on her good hand and singleton Heart, North gambled that her side could make 9 of those tricks, or, if it was only 8, that E-W would fail to find the Double.
Against 3♠, West will probably lead the A♥ and that will be the end of any chance for the defeat of the contract. The only way to beat 3♠ is for West to start out with his singleton Diamond. East wins the K♦, cashes the A♦, gives West a ruff, after which the Heart underlead gets back to East for a second ruff. A difficult and risky defense!
The defense to beat 3♥ is all in the lead. North must start out with the A♠ and a Spade to South’s King, after which the defense has 3 Club tricks to come. Suppose that North’s opening lead is not a Spade but a Diamond. Dummy’s Diamonds are cashed, Declarer pitching a Spade and now Declarer makes his contract if he can avoid 4 Club losers. How can West manage that? The answer is in the Play Problem.
Opposite a 15-17 1NT North did not have enough to try for game so her strategy was to play in a major suit at the two-level. There are various ways of going about this, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
Playing in 2♥, things are quite friendly. Trumps are 2-2, ensuring 9 tricks, and 10 are made if Declarer is smart or lucky enough to guess the Clubs correctly.
At any vulnerability West might have tried 3♥. South’s 3♥ asked for a Heart stop.
Against 3NT, East leads a Heart and Declarer wins the 3rd round. At this point Declarer’s best chance to make the contract is to take the Spade finesse, but that has tragic results when West wins the K♠, cashes his Hearts, and leads a Club. Down 5 for the unusual score of -250!
If South had more of the gunslinger mentality she might have tried bidding 3NT herself! Perhaps it’s a flight of fancy, but she can see that it will play better from her side if Partner is considerate enough to hold the A♥ or K♥. West leads the J♥, won by South’s Queen, then the J♠ is lost and it’s 10 easy tricks! Of course, if we are going to allow such a bid from South then it’s only fair that we allow West’s opening lead to be the K♥, resulting in that old familiar -250.
East has a decent hand and may have been tempted to raise to 4♥. But, as it happens, 3♥ is high enough when the defense score a Club ruff to go along with the A♣, K♣ and A♠.
There’s nothing inherently wrong with Opener raising Responder’s Hearts with 3-card support. But it’s not a good idea when Opener also has 4 Spades, there’s no point in committing to a potentially 4-3 Heart fit when there might be a 4-4 Spade fit available. But, after another round of bidding N-S end up in Hearts anyway.
The auction suggests a trump lead, surely North is short in Clubs with only 3 trumps. So, even though West holds the Q♥ he starts with a trump. The J♥ wins the trick, then a Club is lost to East’s Ace and another trump returned to the Ten, Queen, Ace. Now Declarer can guess either to takes Dummy’s Club ruff (scoring 8 tricks when Diamonds are 3-3), or else to skip the ruff in Dummy (scoring 9 tricks when both red suits are 3-3).
4NT was Roman Key Card, 5♠ showed “two with”.
After that auction a Diamond lead seems called for and Declarer’s best line is to rely on the Clubs coming in. She wins Dummy’s Ace, draws trumps, and plays the Clubs from the top. When that suit fails to behave she is down two. That was unlucky for Declarer, relying on the Clubs was a 52% shot. The alternative of taking the Diamond finesse for the 11th trick and then going for a Heart ruff in Dummy is considerably worse. The finesse is only 50%, and then after that wins and a Heart is lost, the defense can further reduce Declarer’s chances by returning a Club. With that fine defense, Declarer is in Dummy for the last time and must cash the Clubs before drawing trumps, therefore requiring 3-3 Clubs. So, against accurate defense, finessing the Diamond at Trick One is less than 20%. And it fails on the actual layout, but only if West shoots back a Club when in with the K♥. The double dummy route to 12 tricks is to take the finesses in both minor suits but that is very much against the odds.
Would you pass as South after Partner’s 1♠ opening? South only has 4 HCP’s, and no fit for Spades, but even so we’d risk 1NT, planning to rebid 3♣ if North rebids 2♦. As it happens, North rebids 2♥ and plays it there.
Against 2♥, West leads the A♦, then the Q♦ which is overtaken by West’s King. Now the best defense appears to be for West to persist with Diamonds, conceding a ruff and discard but weakening Declarer’s trumps in the process. The full line of play might be: A♦ is cashed, then the Q♦ overtaken by the King A 3rd Diamond is played, ruffed by Declarer, East pitching his Club A♥ is cashed A♠ and K♠ are cashed T♠ covered by the Queen and ruffed in Dummy Q♣ is run around and ruffed by East K♥ is cashed Heart exit is won by Dummy Now, with all the trumps gone, Declarer has 6 tricks, and still has the 9♠ and the A♣ to come. Making 8 tricks.
Yes, E-W can scrounge up 9 tricks in Diamonds, but (a) that’s a lucky contract and requires a good Club guess, (b) E-W are vulnerable. Well done any E-W pairs who bid 3♦ (perhaps it is East who should make the move, raising on a doubleton) and who actually managed to make 9 tricks, perhaps on this line: A♠ is cashed Diamond shift Heart is lost Another Diamond K♥ pitching a Club Now, Declarer must resist the temptation to lead a Club to the King. He will reason that North is probably 5=4=2=2, but it’s far from obvious that North is more likely to hold the A♣ than South.
Minor suit slam bidding is often an adventure, particularly when Key Card sequences are involved, and this auction is a plug for Minorwood. Here is our blow by blow account: - 2♣: Game-forcing - 3♥: West has a minimum hand and suspects (wrongly as it happens) that 3NT is the most likely final contract. But his Spade holding is somewhat suspect so he shows something in Hearts, hoping that East can oblige in the Spade department. - 4♣: Enter Minorwood, in which 4 of the agreed minor is used as Roman Key Card Blackwood. When is 4♣ Minorwood and when is it natural? Follow the link for more on this subject, in the meantime we’ll just say that one commonly used rule is “If the auction is game-forcing, and if the minor has been bid and raised, and if no other suit has been agreed, then 4 of the agreed minor is Minorwood”. - 4♦: Using 1430 responses this shows 1 or 4 Key Cards. - 4♥: This is the “cheapest non-signoff”, and as such is used as the Queen Ask. - 5♥: In response to the Queen Ask, when we actually have the Queen, it is customary to show a side-suit King if we have one. So, 5♥ shows the Q♣ and the K♥, and also denies the K♠ and the K♦ because 4♠ and 5♦ were bypassed.
6♣ is a fine contract. Let’s say that North finds the Spade opening lead. For maximum safety Declarer should jump up with the Ace, cross to the A♥, ruff a Heart high, cross to the T♣, ruff another Heart high, finish off the trumps, and concede a Spade. Nicely bid, nicely played.
It’s true that North is vulnerable and slightly underweight, but it would be criminal not to get that lovely Club suit into the auction, all the more so as she is in third seat. Nonetheless, E-W cruise into a fine 4♥ contract, needing some luck in trumps or Diamonds. 10 easy tricks.
This North is obviously not shy about opening 1NT with a 5-card major, no matter how good the major suit. But, after West’s DONT Double (showing a one-suiter), North felt the time had come to bid those Hearts.
With a 9-card fit and 23 HCP’s one would expect 2♥ to be made in a canter, perhaps with overtricks. But not here! Declarer must lose two Spades, a trump, a Diamond and two Clubs for down one. Not that this will necessarily be a terrible result for N-S, as E-W can make 9 tricks in Spades.
We wouldn’t expect this particular slam auction to come up very often, and yet, by a remarkable coincidence, the identical sequence was used by N-S back on Board 3. As before, 2♦ was New Minor Forcing, seeking a 5-3 Spade fit.
Against 6NT, let’s say that South leads a Diamond, won by Dummy’s Ace. Declarer has 9 top tricks, and will look to the black suits for some extra tricks. The Q♣ is played at Trick Two, followed by the J♣, which also wins the trick. It would be a mistake to play another Club, that would be disastrous if North happened to have started with ♣K9xx and ♠Jxxx. So, Declarer crosses to the Q♠, and when both defenders follow, East has the perfect safety play for 12 tricks, namely by finessing the T♠ next. But is that really such a good idea? No, this is matchpoints and instead of finessing the Spade for a certain 12 tricks, we’d play for the drop: - If the J♠ falls in three rounds then it’s 13 tricks - If North has ♠Jxxx then it’s probably best to settle for 12 tricks by conceding a Spade. - If South has ♠Jxxx then it’s safe to try for a 13th trick in Clubs and, if that does not work, to concede a Spade to South - If North has ♠J9xxx, then she can be endplayed for 12 tricks - If South has ♠J9xxx then please see the Play Problem. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Throw Iins”>>
We don’t see too much wrong with the E-W bidding even if they did end up taking a phantom sacrifice against 4♥ (which was destined to go down two tricks). The good news for E-W is that 4♠ is unlikely to be doubled.
In the mercifully undoubled 4♠, South cashes two Hearts and shifts to a Club won by North’s Ace. A Club comes back won by Declarer’s King. Now there appears to be an entry to the board for the Spade finesse, so a Club is led, South ruffs in and it’s down two.
Let’s say that, against 1NT, South leads a low Club. Dummy’s Jack loses to the Queen and now North can make the fine shift to a low Diamond, counting on South to have either the Ace or the Ten. When South shows up with the Ace, the defense has the first 7 tricks. Look what happens if North makes the mistake of shifting at Trick Two to the K♦. Now, either the suit will be blocked or else South can overtake with the Ace and establish a Diamond stopper in Dummy.
Perhaps East would have been better advised to rebid 2♥ instead of 1NT. 2♥ certainly works out better on the actual lie of the cards, as 9 tricks are likely and even 10 might be made on a good day.
East reasonably decided to treat his hand as balanced, 22-23 HCP’s. 3♣ was Stayman, of course, but what was 4NT? Couldn’t this be interpreted as Roman Key Card for Hearts? Perhaps so, it’s certainly something to be agreed with Partner, he might also think that 4NT is a quantitative bid. Of course, some pairs use Kickback, whereby 4♠ is the normal way of invoking Key Card when Hearts are agreed, and those pairs have no problem here. But, if you are not using Kickback, then we suggest that you borrow a leaf from that book in 2NT (or 2♣ 2♦, 2NT) auctions and play 4♠ (over 3♥) as Key Card, leaving 4NT as quantitative.
6NT is a deceptively easy contract. Let’s say that South leads the Q♦. Declarer wins and must avoid cashing Spades before taking the Club finesse. That will not only leave the A♦ stranded, it will also set up a Spade for North, which will be cashed when he gets in with the K♣. The correct play, of course, is to cash the A♣ and Trick Two, then continue with the Queen, and making the slam whenever Clubs are 3-2 or when the K♣ or T♣ are singleton (a total chance of 75% for those who are counting).
System Note Suppose instead that the auction starts 2♣ 2♦, 2NT 3♣, 3♠ (or 2NT 3♣, 3♠). Is 4NT quantitative? We’d say “Yes”, but that only raises again the question of how to invoke Key Card, for which some players use 5♣. Yes, it’s a bit cumbersome, but better than having no Key Card option.
Against 2♥, we suppose that South will lead a Club or a Spade, and in either case the defense can come to 5 tricks if North wins her Ace and shifts to a Diamond. Failure to find that shift will allow that Diamond loser to go away on a Club.
After E-W have bid and raised Spades, North’s 3NT is usually based on a long running suit and a Spade stop. Well, the Diamonds are not quite running but not far off, and worth the gamble in our view.
East leads the K♠, and it doesn’t help much to duck this. With the Diamonds 2-1, Declarer has 10 top tricks, but she can only untangle 9 of them.
South’s Redouble showed 3-card support, and then her later Double showed a good hand, not necessarily good Diamonds. North had no appetite for defending a doubled contract, which was a shame for N-S, they would have collected a 500 penalty. As it is, careful timing is required if North is to scrape up 8 tricks in 2♥: 9♣ lead won by West’s Jack Diamond to East’s King Q♦ won by Dummy’s King K♥ and A♥ are cashed Cross to the A♣ Q♣ is covered by the King and ruffed Q♠ is run around J♠ is finessed 9♣ is cashed The defense gets the rest of the tricks but Declarer has scrambled to total of 8.
Back to the bidding. Anyone for a 15-17 1NT opening with the South hand? We happen to think that this would be a rather fine idea with that square 18 and with no Ten in sight. Opening 1NT may work out rather well, probably buying the contract and scoring 8 tricks for a good board.
Just as with her hand on Board 13, South does not have the normal HCP threshold of 5 or 6 HCP’s for bidding. However, it’s usually a good idea to keep the bidding open when holding a 5-card major, so we would dredge up a 1♠ bid here. However, it’s not good news when North’s rebid is 1NT. With the N-S combined assets in the 16-18 range, 1NT is most unlikely to be a success, so South must bail out to a suit contract at the 2-level. 2♦ is not an option for most pairs (who play it as artificial, usually New Minor Forcing), so South rebids 2♠ out of necessity.
2♠ is unlikely to make, in fact it takes a friendly layout and careful play to get out for down one. But that won’t necessarily be such a bad result, with the opponents able to make 7 or 8 tricks in No Trump.
South’s 3♠ is generally played as furthering the preempt. West’s Double was minimum but reasonable, and E-W land in the precarious contract of 4♣. Spades are led, and Dummy ruffs the second round. Two rounds of trumps are drawn, ending in Declarer’s hand. When the suit breaks, Declarer can afford to ruff another Spade, setting the scene for a potential end-play. Next, Declarer finesses the Heart Nine, losing to South’s Jack. With Hearts 3-3, a Diamond can be pitched on the 13th Heart, but in fact that line of play is good for 10 tricks except in the unlikely case where North has 4 Hearts.
Post Script When we are preempting it’s often tempting to bid one more than usual when we are White vs Red. We are not sure that is a good idea with such bland distribution, but if North tries 3♠, South will raise to 4♠ and who know what will happen next? 4♠ could get passed out giving N-S a top for going down two, it could be doubled (giving N-S a bottom) or E-W could get pushed overboard to 5♣ (another N-S top).
West is a bit light in HCP’s for that 3♠ limit raise, but he no doubt rather liked his extra Spade. East was light in HCP’s to accept the invitation, no doubt he rather liked his singleton. The end result of all this lightness is that E-W reach 4♠ with 4 top losers. Nonetheless, 4♠ is likely to make at most tables. South leads the K♣, and continues the suit for Declarer to ruff. Trumps are drawn, the Diamonds are cashed. Now a Heart is played and N-S cannot overcome the blockage. After cashing two Hearts, North must concede a ruff and discard.
Should the defense have seen this coming? It’s hard to blame South, she had no reason to find the dangerous-looking Heart shift at Trick Two. But perhaps North could have stepped into the breach, with that Heart holding setting off alarms. If North is suitably alarmed, she overtakes the K♣, and plonks down the A♥. If South encourages that, North will play the Q♥ before reverting to Clubs. Alert defense by North!
Playing Jacoby Transfers, 2♠ is available for something other than Spades, and for most pairs it’s a minor-oriented bid of one sort or another. Some pairs also use 2NT as minor-oriented, and one commonly used method is Minor Suit Transfers, whereby 2♠ shows Clubs and 2NT shows Diamonds. That being the case, when Responder wants to invite 3NT opposite a 1NT opening, she must go via Stayman even if she does not have a 4-card major, as in the auction above.
Against 3NT, West probably leads a Spade, whereupon East cashes the two high Spades and exits a Spade. Declarer has 8 top tricks and her best chance of a 9th is from the Heart suit. The percentage play with that Heart holding is to finesse the Ten, picking up the third trick in the suit whenever West has the QJ or when the suit is 3-3. This play has a 52% chance of success, but alas for Declarer this particular layout belongs to the 48% population.
System Note If, as per the above, N-S are using Stayman even when they may not have a 4-card major, then it’s as well to distinguish between these two auctions: 1NT 2♣ 2♥ 2NT Invites to 3NT without 4 Spades
1NT 2♣ 2♥ 2♠ Invites to game with 4 Spades.
By making the above distinction, Opener can pass 2♠ when she has 4 Spades and a rotten hand.
Alert Procedure Some time back, it was required to alert Stayman when the bid could be made without a 4-card major. Now, the procedures have changed, and Opener only alerts the 2NT rebid. But, if Responder rebids 3NT, there’s no nothing to alert, as the sequence 1NT 2♣, 2♥ 3NT does show a 4-card major.
Nicely bid by North! South’s 2♣ was game-forcing, and 3NT showed stoppers in both the majors. That being so, North reasoned that South must surely have the A♠ or the K♠, in which case 6♣ would at least have a play.
6♣ turns out to be a great contract, needing no more than two Diamond ruffs on the board (and only one ruff if West starts out with a low Diamond or the A♠).
Playing in 2♦, unless N-S have a defensive miscue, Declarer loses 3 Spades and 5 tricks altogether. Well, a plus is a plus.
Some Souths will no doubt throw in a light third seat 1♣ opening bid, and who can blame them, it’s certainly the suit that South would like Partner to lead. This may propel N-S into a 3♣ contract, after which South will be fighting for her life to avoid down two and the dreaded -200. Let’s say that West starts out with the K♥, ducked by Declarer. Declarer wins the second round, and exits a Diamond, a good play, she wants to get to the board without opening up the Spade suit. East wins that Diamond, cashes a Heart and a Diamond and exits a trump. The trump finesse loses, a trump comes back, and now Declarer must play the Spades for no losers. Luck is with South when the QT are both with West, and she escapes with a scary down one.
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