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Hand Analyses 18th June, 2008
There’s an abundance of links on this page, here’s what they all mean: - Notations such as Bidding Quiz (North) are links to the weekly Bidding Quiz, a selection of the 15-20 most interesting bidding situations of the week. - Each week we pick out two or three hands which are suitable for presentation in problem format, as in Play Problem 203 (West), linking you to a page with only two hands on display. Solve the problem first, then see the solution and the entire deal. - Some analyses contain references to bidding conventions, and you’ll see links to articles in our Convention Library such as Roman Key Card - In BridgeOpedia we have categorized by theme the entire history of the most instructive Wednesday Game hands, two year’s worth. Occasionally you will see a purple arrow, linking to the relevant BridgeOpedia section. For example, in this week’s Board 4, Declarer must decide on the percentage play for a certain suit combination. Adjacent to the text for that hand you will see the link >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Suit Combinations”>> which will transport you to the collection of hands with the same theme.
Looking at that nice collection, South might briefly entertain thoughts of slam opposite the perfect North hand. In fact, even some semi-perfect hands might work. But matchpoints is nothing if not a practical game. Probably 90% of the time slam will not be a good proposition, and even when it is it might not always be possible to diagnose that in the bidding. So, we’d just boot out 3NT here, giving the opponents the minimum of information, and being prepared to apologize profusely if it turns out that 3NT is down one while 6♦ is absolutely cold!
As it happens, on the actual hand the advice above is more lucky than good. 6♦ is a fine contract, though it will fail on an initial Heart lead and then a Heart ruff. That would be most unfortunate for those who bid the good slam, they deserved a better fate.
Meanwhile, most of the N-S pairs will be toiling away in a 3NT contract. As East, what is your choice of opening lead? - A Spade? Against 1NT 3NT auctions there is a predisposition to lead a major suit, using the logic that, as South failed to invoke Stayman, the majors might be a happier hunting ground than the minors. If East buys into that logic and leads a Spade, Declarer will count 10 tricks and will set up an 11th at Trick Two by leading a Heart towards Dummy. East’s play of the Jack will be duly noted and West will win the trick. A Spade comes back, the A♣ is cashed (no reason not to), a whole bunch of Diamonds will be cashed and Declarer will have to decide at Trick Twelve whether or not to take that greedy Heart finesse for 12 tricks (risking only 10 if it fails). - A Club? If East spurns the major and leads his best suit instead, Declarer will duck the first one (no point in ducking a second, that would give the defense 3 tricks right away when Declarer has 10 of his own). After winning the second Club it won’t be clear to Declarer whether Clubs are 5-3 or 6-2. If they are 6-2, and if the A♥ is with the Club shortness, then an 11th can be set up by playing on Hearts before cashing the second Spade. That’s too much of a long shot for our taste, but hope springs eternal, so Declarer rattles off the 7 Diamonds, hoping that the defense is under pressure (real or imagined). East must find 6 pitches, no less, and may be concerned that Declarer has AKx in Spades. If that were the case, he would need to hold on to T9x in Spades, meaning that he must part with 3 Clubs. With only one enemy Club outstanding, now it is safe to play on Hearts next, setting up the 11th trick.
West’s Double was minimum, but White vs Red, with both majors, who could resist? North concluded that her hand was too good for a preemptive 3♣, so she responded 2♣ only, then bid Clubs again the next time around. Over 2♣, East was not good enough for a 3♣ cue-bid, that would typically show both majors and game-invitational values. So rather than commit to one major or the other he made a Responsive Double.
With West declaring 3♥, suppose that North leads the A♣ and continues a Club. In order to make 9 tricks Declarer must pick up both major suit Queens. Will he? Please see the Play Problem.
It’s quite possible that South will wind up declaring 3♣ (East’s 3♥ was far from obvious) in which case there are five inescapable losers.
Although N-S have slightly more than their fair share of the HCP’s they have no convenient way of getting into the auction. But that is just as well, if N-S make the mistake of bidding up to 3♣, East is sure to double with a mighty roar and that will be -300 for N-S.
2♠ is not much of a contract either, especially if, as likely, North’s opening lead is a Heart. The play might go: Three Hearts are cashed On the 4th Heart, Declarer pitches a Diamond, North ruffs Spade won by Declarer Two more Spades are cashed Club won by North’s Ace Now Declarer’s Diamond loser goes on the K♣, but the defense still has a trump to come, and that is down one.
South’s 2♣ was an Inverted Raise, showing at least game-invitational values and no 4-card major. North’s 2NT showed a minimum balanced hand, and South then made a natural slam invitation. Having already declared a minimum hand, North felt that she had enough extras to go to slam (5-card suit, good Club fillers). And rightly so.
The N-S hands fit well together, and the slam requires no more than a little luck in Clubs. On the actual layout the play of the Clubs presents no problem. But suppose that West had been able to follow low on the first round, what’s the best play for 4 tricks? The winner is to finesse, and to finesse again if West plays low on the second round too. That line comes in at 76% compared with just 66% for cashing the A♣ on the first round. The in-between play of finessing on the first round and playing for the drop on the second round has an appropriately in-between percentage of 70%. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Suit Combinations”>>
A difficult hand for North to bid opposite that 1NT opening. One choice was to overbid the hand by transferring and rebidding Diamonds, forcing to game. The objective of that sequence would be to deflect South from No Trump unless she had good black suit holdings. Alternatively, as above, South could transfer and then invite game with 2NT. Neither of these approaches is perfect, so choose your own imperfect plan. As for South, it’s not completely clear that she should bid 4♥ over 2NT (although it would be clear to choose Hearts over No Trump if North shows her Diamonds).
If N-S wind up in 3NT, West is unlikely to find the killing Club lead, and will probably lead a Spade instead. Now suppose that Declarer is clever or lucky enough to guess the location of the J♥. When East wins the A♥, he can make Declarer very nervous by shifting to the J♣, but Declarer rises hopefully with her King and that is 11 tricks and a top board. Strangely, East does better not to shift to a Club, and, let’s say, shift to a Diamond instead. When this happens, Declarer heaves a huge sigh of relief and grabs her 10 top tricks while she still can. She never does score her K♣ and ends up with a moderate board.
If South is Declarer in 4♥, West might well lead a Spade, as before. Now the percentage Heart play is low to the Queen and finesse the Ten, after which Declarer is on course for 11 tricks and a good board. One of Dummy’s Diamonds will go on the fourth round of Spades and the other on the K♣ when the Ace is obligingly with East.
North’s 3♦ was natural and forcing, perhaps North was entertaining some optimistic slam thoughts. Against 3NT, it seems normal enough for West to lead the J♥, which is won by Declarer. Now what? We can see three possible scenarios playing themselves out: - Scenario 1: This Declarer is armed with the knowledge that a 2-2 Diamond break is only 40% likely, so at Trick Two she takes the Diamond finesse, ensuring 10 tricks. - Scenario 2: This Declarer decides to go for the gusto, by cashing the Diamonds from the top. However, East plays the J♦ on the first round of Diamonds, and our unfortunate Declarer, being cursed with an intimate knowledge of the Principle of Restricted Choice, returns to hand and finesses the second round of Diamonds. Oops! Now Declarer will be down one when East shifts to Spades. - Scenario 3: This Declarer is blissfully unaware of probabilities and Restricted Choice. She plays the Diamonds from the top and scores 12 tricks!
Aggressive bidding by E-W! But reasonable, we think. East’s 3♣ showed game-invitational values (or better), no doubt he liked the extra trump, Heart doubleton and Diamond fillers, and decided to upgrade his 9-count. West obviously fell in love with that Club singleton and the good trumps and went to game.
System Note With the opponents bidding two suits, East had a choice of cue-bids with which to show Spade support. One commonly used method in this situation is: - With 3-card support make the cheaper cue-bid (2♥ here) - With 4-card (or better) support make the more expensive cue-bid of 3♣.
Against 4♠, South will presumably lead the A♣ or the K♥, which are equally unsuccessful. The only way to beat this contract is a Diamond lead, then a Club back, followed by a Diamond ruff. That’s 3 tricks for the defense with a Heart trick still to come. This defense seems highly improbable, surely 10 tricks are more likely.
If E-W are less forceful in the auction, it’s quite possible that it will be N-S who end up declaring an aggressive game, this time 4♥. Again, a defensive ruff is available, but that doesn’t beat the contracr and if the defense is to prevail they must be more subtle. Here is one defense that doesn’t work: A♠ is cashed Club shift won by Declarer’s Ace K♥ is led and ducked! (good play, but not good enough!) Q♥ won by East’s Ace Now, it doesn’t work for East to give Partner his ruff, because all the trumps will be gone, and Dummy still has the A♦ as an entry to the Clubs. Nor does it work to knock out Dummy’s A♦ (after winning the A♥), because Declarer can ruff a Spade, draw trumps, and run the Clubs (for 11 tricks!).
The winning defense is for West to lead a Club at Trick One: Club to Declarer’s Ace K♥ is ducked by East (necessary!) Q♥ is won by East’s Ace Diamond to North’s Ace (also necessary!) East has declined to give West his Club ruff, but that was the only way to beat the contract. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Disrupting Declarer's Entries”>>
In this situation, West’s 3♠ is usually not played as a game try, it is purely preemptive. West knows that he’ll compete to 3♠ sooner or later with that lovely distribution, so he chooses to do so immediately in order to make it harder for the opponents to get together. If West had wanted to make a game try he would have bid a new suit, or else redoubled to show a good hand.
Against 3♠ North might well lead a low Heart. Declarer wins, plays the Q♠ to North’s Ace, loses a Heart, ruffs a Heart, crosses to the K♠, and runs the J♣. All’s well, and Declarer loses a trick in each suit for +140.
North’s first bids were obvious enough, 2♦ was waiting, 3♥ was a transfer. But what should she do after 3♠? Slam is not a realistic prospect, so we wouldn’t bother to bid 4♣ here, instead we would unscientifically trot out 3NT, leaving Partner to choose between 3NT and 4♠.
Against 4♠, let us suppose that West starts out safely with the Q♥. Declarer wins that, cashes A♠, K♠, Q♠, and then leads a Club, ducked by West and won in Dummy. The last trump is drawn and a Club ducked around to West’s Ace. Now, Declarer can untangle 12 lucky tricks.
We hate to lead from Jxxx, all too often it blows a trick one way or the other. But it turns out to be the winner here. Look what might happen: Diamond to the Queen, King, Ace Cash three top Spades Cash A♥ and K♥, pitching a Diamond A Club to Dummy’s Queen Draw the last trump Club ducked around to West’s Ace Diamond is ruffed Now, the Club suit is blocked and Dummy is out of entries, so 10 tricks is the limit. It’s true that Declarer cannot make 12 tricks after that Diamond lead, at least not when trumps turn out to be 4-1. But she could have managed 11. After two rounds of trumps, Declarer cashes the Hearts (pitching a Diamond), then plays on Clubs, and eventually is able to ruff a (good) Club with the Q♠. Her 11 tricks are A♦, A♥, K♥, two Clubs, 5 trumps, plus a Club ruff in the short hand.
Against 2♠, East has a miserable choice of opening leads. Let’s say that he chooses a low Diamond, won by Declarer. With nothing better to do, Declarer exits with a Diamond, won by West. Now the A♥ and a Heart to the King, and a Diamond is cashed. At this point, the best that the defense can do is cash the A♠, and play a Heart which is ruffed and overruffed. Declarer has avoided his second trump loser but still has a Club to lose. Down one.
After a 1NT overcall, most pairs play “systems on”, which is to say that the bidding follow-up is the same as opposite a 1NT opening bid. That being so, East decided to get to a major suit contract via a “Garbage Stayman” sequence. His 2♥ announced a weak hand with both majors, and E-W rather fortuitously stumbled into their best fit.
As South, what would you lead against 2♥? With Declarer having announced the majors, the K♦ seems to stand out, wouldn’t you say? Here’s how the play might now develop: K♦ opening lead, won by Dummy Club to the Queen and South’s Ace Diamond to North’s Queen Low Diamond, ruffed and overruffed Spade to North’s Ace Another Diamond ruffed and overruffed That’s 5 tricks for the defense, but Declarer could have done a trick better. How? By ducking the opening Diamond lead, a play which prevents South from scoring a second trump trick.
What are your methods when Partner opens 1NT and the opponents preempt to the 3-level? N-S were playing Negative Doubles in this situation, which was most fortunate for South, as without that treatment she would be without a sensible bid. After the Negative Double, North could have made a penalty Pass, but was persuaded by the vulnerability to take a shot at 3NT.
3NT is a touch-and-go affair. Let’s say that West leads a low Spade (he really shouldn’t, particularly at matchpoints, this lead is likely to blow a trick and the suit is highly likely to come in). After the helpful low Spade lead, Declarer can count 8 tricks, with a possible 9th in Hearts or Clubs, perhaps even Diamonds. The percentage play in Clubs is to finesse the Nine on the first round, playing West to have a doubleton honor or both honors or for the suit to be 3-3. However, the bidding suggests that West is unlikely to be the hand that is short in Clubs, so Declarer might try ducking a Diamond at Trick Two. East’s Nine wins that trick and the K♠ is returned, won by Declarer’s Ace. Now a Diamond is ducked again, won by West this time. Back comes a Heart won by Declarer’s Ace. When the Diamonds break, we arrive in this end-position: Declarer ♠ T5 ♥ K7 ♦ ♣ A94 West East ♠ ♠ Q743 ♥ J54 ♥ T3 ♦ ♦ ♣ QJ87 ♣ 5 Dummy ♠ ♥ Q98 ♦ 7 ♣ KT6 By now, Declarer is assured of 9 tricks, and when the 13th Diamond is cashed West must pitch a Club. Now the Hearts are cashed and West is thrown in with a Heart. West is end-played, and Declarer scores 3 Clubs at the end. 10 tricks and a top board!
If East finds the more sensible opening lead of a Diamond, Declarer Declarer starts out with only 7 top tricks. The 8th one materializes when Diamonds are 3-3, and a 9th can be developed by end-playing West along similar lines to the play above.
3♦ was “New Minor Forcing”, an attempt to find a 5-3 Spade fit, but, in the absence of that, the final contract was 3NT. After that auction, North will surely lead a Heart, and South will insert the Nine, forcing Declarer to release his King on the first round. Next, Declarer will play just two rounds of Spades, and will then tackle the Diamonds. If Declarer has his guessing shoes on he’ll lead the Q♦, picking up the whole suit when the Ten is doubleton. Now Declarer has 10 sure tricks and North will have to discard accurately to prevent more. She’ll have to find two pitches on the Diamonds. A Club can easily be spared, obviously not a Spade, so North pitches a Heart (perhaps the Queen would clarify things for South). However, 3NT making 10 tricks will probably be a good board, thanks to that lucky Diamond guess.
The aforementioned line worked a treat when the Diamonds came in, but Declarer might equally well have led a low Diamond, hoping for doubleton King with South. Not so good! Now Declarer can do no better than 8 tricks.
Finally, many Wests will open 1♦ and that might have the pleasant effect of inducing a Club lead from North. Now Declarer makes 10 or 11 tricks depending on his Diamond guess.
After this auction, who could blame West for finding an opening lead of a low Club. Dummy’s Ten wins that, and the J♠ is led. East sensibly ducks this, wins the second Spade, and continues Clubs. Declarer’s Ace wins that, the Diamond finesse works, and (praying that East has not ducked with ♦Kxx), Declarer crosses to the A♥, cashes the black suit winners (pitching Hearts), and, with great trepidation repeats the Diamond finesse. Making 12 tricks. And making only 11 if West’s opening lead is a slightly offbeat high Club.
After this auction, North realizes that she should not expect much help on the defense from her partner, who cannot have more than 2 or 3 HCP’s. So, let’s say that North passively leads a Club, won by Declarer. A Spade finesse wins, then it’s back to hand with a Club for a repeat trump finesse. When the dust has cleared, it will be 10 tricks for Declarer.
South’s 3♦ was a natural game try, readily accepted by North. West will lead a black suit, it makes little difference which, so let’s say a Spade. Declarer wins and plays on trumps, but should pause for thought when East shows out on the second round. There is a trump control issue here. If Declarer draws the remaining trumps and then finds that there are two Diamonds to be lost, he will run out of trumps before the Diamonds are established. So, after the second round of trumps Declarer turns her attention to Diamonds while Dummy still has a trump to handle the Club force. However, when the J♦ appears on the first round all worries are gone. Declarer reverts to trumps, then knocks out the K♦ and scores 11 easy tricks.
West thought his hand was too good for a 3♦ preempt over South’s Double, so he bid just 2♦, planning to compete to 3♦ if he got the chance. But that chance never came and West was not worth a 4-level bid.
Even so, it’s possible to imagine some tables playing in Diamonds, and there is a curious symmetry between the play in Diamonds and Spades: - If East plays in Diamonds he can be held to 8 tricks, losing 2 Spades, 2 Hearts and a Club. However, the Club trick disappears if South starts the defense with the A♥ lead. - If North plays in Spades she can make 9 tricks, losing a Heart, a Diamond and two Clubs. However, the Heart trick disappears if East starts out the defense with Clubs (or cashes two Diamonds and shifts to Clubs).
After a game-forcing 2/1, Opener’s No Trump rebids are often played this way: - 12-14: Rebid 2NT - 15-17: Rebid 3NT - 18-19: Rebid 2NT, then bid more later, as in 1♠ 2♥, 2NT 3NT, 4NT
Using this schema, if East is a point-counting kind of guy, he might well bid 2NT here, planning to bid more later. However, we’d suggest a 3NT bid directly, shaving off a point on account of that Club holding. If East does so, then we say “Nice pass!” to West. His hand is not quite good enough for a slam move, his Hearts will do just fine in No Trump, and he has some help in both of the unbid suits.
Yes, No Trump is the place to be, scoring 11 tricks and outscoring those 4♥ declarers who lost the same two Aces. And it could be even worse in 4♥, as there is a Club ruff available for the defense.
After West accepts the transfer, what is your rebid preference as East? Do you get scientific and bid 3♣, or do you just bash into 3NT giving the opponents a minimum of information? We’d bash into 3NT ourselves, after which West has an obvious 4♥ bid.
Against 4♥, after the uninformative auction above, it’s hard to see North finding the dangerous-looking Spade lead, the J♦ looks so much safer. Alas for the defense the J♦ allows one of Dummy’s Spade losers to be pitched away, and that’s 11 tricks for Declarer.
N-S had a New Minor Forcing auction, South showing 3 Spades and minimum hand. This allowed N-S to stay at a nice low level. However, let’s suppose that N-S are more exuberant and end up in game. West leads a Club, plan the play. This one is a Play Problem, but we have slightly doctored the E-W hands to make the problem worthy of your skill.
With the opponents bidding and raising, East’s Double was Responsive, after which South’s 3♥ was purely preemptive … if she had wanted to make a game try she would have bid a new suit.
Against 3♥, we’d expect West to start out with the J♣, won by Declarer’s Ace. At this point, Declarer would like to lead trumps from Dummy but there is a problem with Dummy entries. If she crosses to the board with a Club, she must cash the third Club next, and that will not be a success if West has led from a doubleton Club. So, at Trick Two, Declarer plays the K♥ from her hand, won by West’s Ace. There’s no future for the defense in Clubs so West shifts to a Spade, and the end-result will be 9 or 10 tricks for Declarer. Which it is will depend on whether Declarer can guess the Heart situation. The play and the bidding will have provided these clues: - East has show up with the A♠ and K♠ - West’s Diamonds are probably broken, as with KQJ West might well have led a Diamond or shifted to a Diamond. This suggests that East has the Q♦ - Therefore it appears that West has just 9 or 10 points, not a lot for a two-level overcall. Perhaps this evidence is sufficient to place West with a 6-card Diamond suit and also some distribution (such as Heart shortness) - If East has just two Diamonds, perhaps his distribution is 4=3=2=4 and if so then the Heart finesse is the winning play. The logic is not exactly overwhelming (East might well be 4=2=2=5), but at least there is an argument to be made for taking the finesse rather than playing for the drop. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Weighing the Evidence”>>
Any pair that got to 6♠ on the 4-3 fit certainly hit the jackpot! 6♣ will also score a lot of matchpoints, and we’d even bet that 4♠ making six is above average. Anyway, we’ve used this deal as an excuse to introduce a No Trump gadget. That 3♥ bid shows: - Precisely 3 Spades - Shortness in Hearts - 5-4 or 4-5 in the minors - Values for game We don’t know if this gadget has an official name, we generally refer to it as “that 3-1-4-5 thing”, or that “1-3-4-5 thing” if the shortness happens to be in Spades. The main purpose of the gadget is to find the 4-3 fit in the other major when 3NT proves unplayable, and, failing that, a 5♣ or 5♦ contract. Of course, the fact that the singleton is the King is far from ideal, no doubt West could not resist using his new toy and was willing to overlook that defect.
Slam is very difficult to reach on these cards. West will be discouraged by the singleton King, and can hardly expect East to have the perfect maximum.
Assuming that the E-W range for a 2NT opening is 20-21, then we would say that the East hand is too good of a 21-count and is worthy of 2♣ followed by 2NT (showing 22-23, say). Now, for the second board running we get to introduce another gadget. As E-W are playing transfers, 3♠ is freed up for other purposes and this E-W pair use it to show a minor-oriented hand. It could be a minor one-suiter or a two-suiter, and Opener is required to bid 3NT in order to discover which. After the 3NT relay, Responder bids his minor, or in this case his short major, showing a minor two-suiter. At this point East could bid 4NT naturally, or else support a minor. With such good Clubs and controls, East took a shot at 6♣.
If you use this gadget then reserve it for West hands with at least some slam interest. West is somewhat minimum, we’d say, and East was pretty aggressive, too. So, it’s not surprising that there is some work to do in 6♣. Let’s say that South leads a Heart to North’s Ace and a Heart is continued. Declarer wins the K♥, cashes one high trump, plays K♦, then A♦, then ruffs a Diamond high. When the Q♦ comes down, it’s 12 tricks.
South’s Double was DONT, showing a one-suiter, and North’s 2♣ asked what was that suit. Now, when East chimed in with 3♣, South tried 3♠ and North optimistically bid game.
Against 4♠, an opening Heart lead will spell instant defeat for Declarer, but West is likely to lead Partner’s suit. East wins the A♣, and now his best return is a low trump. Declarer wins that in her hand, crosses to the A♥ and pitches a Heart on Dummy’s Club winner. Now Declarer must guess whether East started with two or three Hearts. If she guesses correctly (perhaps she should with East likely to have 6 Clubs), then she’ll play a low Heart from the board, ruffing out East’s King. Now Dummy’s trump spots can force an entry to the board and the run of the Hearts brings home 10 tricks.
Just as in Board 23, East has a 21-count which he decides to upgrade into the 22-23 range. Accordingly, he opens 2♣, planning a 2NT rebid. However, South throws in a 2♦ bid putting West on the spot. Clearly West cannot show that rotten Spade suit with a weak hand, so her choices are to pass or to double. A common treatment here is for Pass to show some values and for Double to show a weak hand. What is the definition of “some values”? Some partnerships define values as an Ace, or a King, or a couple of Queens. If that is the case then West has the weakest Pass imaginable.
Over to East. He could just pass North’s 3♦ and wait for Partner to do something, but instead he chose to get 3NT in while he still could, in order to protect the K♦.
It turns out that E-W have no game, but if they have to bid game then at least 3NT goes down less than the alternatives. South leads a Diamond, won by Declarer’s King. 5 Clubs are cashed, forcing 3 pitches from South. A Heart and a Spade can be spared, but then South must part with a Diamond. Next, Declarer leads a Heart, after which South can take her 5 red tricks before being obliged to give up the last two Spade tricks. An end-play for down one (and probably a decent board for E-W).
By an extraordinary coincidence, for the third time in 4 hands, East is dealt a big balanced hand with 5 Clubs. This one is a 2NT opening bid, after which E-W get into a mind-numbing slam sequence: - 2NT: 20-21 - 3♥: Transfer - 3♠: Accepting the transfer (no super-accept, so probably not 4 Spades) - 4♦: A second suit - 4♥: A cue-bid in support of Diamonds - 4NT: If E-W are playing Minorwood or Redwood then that is just wonderful, but they are of no use here, the auction has crowded them out and 4NT is required for Roman Key Card. - 5♦: 3 Key Cards (1430 responses) - 5♥: Queen Ask (it’s the “cheapest non-signoff”) - 6NT: Good bid! Absent the Q♦, East could just bid 6♦, but that would no doubt be passed by West. East can see the benefits of 6NT, a better scoring contract and one which also protects the Heart holding from the opening lead, so he grabs the bull by the horns and bids it directly.
6NT is the right contract and is destined to make all 13 tricks. Declarer must pick up the Diamond suit, and should do so. Why? Because a holding of Q9xx of Diamonds can only be picked up if it is in the South hand. So when he gets in Declarer will play the A♦, and then run the Ten, catering for that specific case.
The DONT brigade will be unable to resist introducing their Spades as East. Aggressive tactics such as these often work well, but not on this particular board, when 2♠ is doubled enthusiastically by South. What to lead, though? Not a trump, not the A♦, so a Club or a Heart. As North had the chance to double 2♣ we’d take the inference that she is more likely to have Hearts and a low Heart would be our choice. Now, with accurate defense Declarer is down 3 for 500.
West’s Weak Two is likely to buy the contract. 2♥ is a relatively friendly affair for Declarer, thanks to the onside A♠ and K♣, and it’s quite likely that 9 tricks will be made at many tables. But not if North starts out with a Club. That is won by South who returns a Club. Later, North gets in with the A♥, zips over to Partner’s A♦, and gets a Club ruff to hold Declarer to just 8 tricks.
South’s 1♠ may look a trifle odd to some players. It’s a “Walsh-style” bid, whereby, after an opening bid of 1♣, Responder (unless he has game-forcing values) bypasses the Diamond suit in favor of a major suit.
New Minor Forcing is a useful convention, but here it turns out to be a nuisance when South is obliged to pass 1NT even though she strongly suspects that 2♦ might be a better spot. In actual play we hesitate to predict how many No Trump tricks will be taken by South. East has a pretty obvious and safe J♠ lead, and if the defense shifts to Clubs in time (not entirely obvious) they can take 7 tricks. If South gets to play in Diamonds it will be 8 or 9 tricks.
Actually, there is a way to play in 2♦, at least for those pairs that play Two-Way Checkback instead of New Minor Forcing. Two-Way Checkback is our “Convention of the Week”, please see the handout.
Hopefully North will learn something from this deal as she goes for -500 in 2♥ doubled. That 2♥ bid got what it deserved, wouldn’t you say? If North really has to overcall at the two-level with a 10-count then there should at least be some character to the hand. There is no such character here … only 5 Hearts, no shortness, no fillers, poor controls, and side-suit Queens which may be quite useless on offense … just an awful hand!
If North refrains from that atrocious overcall then E-W will have a free run to some number of Spades. We don’t expect many pairs will get to game, nor should they. Against a Spade contract, North will probably lead a Diamond. Declarer has work ahead, and one of his tasks is to do something with those Club losers. A sensible plan would be to try to develop a Heart trick. That would allow one Club to be pitched, and another Club can be ruffed on the board. So, Declarer leads a Heart at Trick Two, and North hops up with the Ace, then plays Q♦ and out a Diamond. Declarer wins that, crosses to the A♣, cashes the K♥ and loses a Club. The best advice we can offer South here is “Don’t panic!” South must realize that Declarer only needs one Club ruff, and further that this Club ruff cannot be stopped. So, she refrains from leading a trump and gets out with a Club. Now, normal play is to take the Club ruff, cash the K♠ and take the losing Spade finesse. Making 9 tricks. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Going Passive”>>
East gets full marks for persistence in this auction, and West finally buys it in 3♠. Against 3♠, North leads a Club, and has nothing better to try than to cash a second Club and lead back a third one, hoping that Partner has a useful trump holding. Alas for the defense she doesn’t and, with both majors behaving, it’s 9 rather lucky tricks for E-W.
Of course, it’s quite possible that some E-W pairs will sell out to 3♦, and if that happens, East will have a miserable time of it. He starts out with the K♠ which is won by Declarer, who fires a Spade right back. East cashes the A♦ but is now end-played! But, it gets even worse, here’s the full line of play: K♠ won by Declarer’s Ace Spade conceded to East A♦ is cashed (but now East is end-played) Low Club won by Declarer’s Jack Club to the Ace K♣ is ruffed and overruffed K♦ draws the last trump Low Heart won by East’s Jack (end-played again!) Here is the end-position: North ♠ ♥ AQ ♦ T95 ♣ West East ♠ 987 ♠ 43 ♥ 75 ♥ K9 ♦ ♦ ♣ ♣ Q South ♠ ♥ T4 ♦ J ♣ 87 East has just won the J♥, the defense’s 3rd trick. But now, whatever he does, Declarer has the rest: - If East returns a Spade, then the ruff and sluff allows the Heart loser to disappear. - If East returns a Heart, then Declarer scores two Heart tricks. - If East returns a Club, then Declarer ruffs, crosses to Dummy’s J♦, and pitches the Heart loser on the established Club.
Can East do better (after cashing the A♦) by exiting with the Queen of Clubs? No, Declarer wins the A♣, crosses to the J♣, and exits a low Heart, putting East into a similar pickle.
Over 1♠, East’s bid was a Support Double showing 3-card Heart support. South’s 2♥ showed a good hand with Spade support, but North wan’t going anywhere with that garbage and that was the end of that. In the play of 2♠, it’s 9 easy tricks with one loser in each of the suits.
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