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Hand Analyses 18th June, 2008
There’s an abundance of links on this page, here’s what they all mean: - Notations such as Bidding Quiz (North) are links to the weekly Bidding Quiz, a selection of the 15-20 most interesting bidding situations of the week. - Each week we pick out two or three hands which are suitable for presentation in problem format, as in Play Problem 203 (West), linking you to a page with only two hands on display. Solve the problem first, then see the solution and the entire deal. - Some analyses contain references to bidding conventions, and you’ll see links to articles in our Convention Library such as Roman Key Card - In BridgeOpedia we have categorized by theme the entire history of the most instructive Wednesday Game hands, two year’s worth. Occasionally you will see a purple arrow, linking to the relevant BridgeOpedia section. For example, in this week’s Board 4, Declarer must decide on the percentage play for a certain suit combination. Adjacent to the text for that hand you will see the link >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Suit Combinations”>> which will transport you to the collection of hands with the same theme.
Looking at that nice collection, South might briefly entertain thoughts of slam opposite the perfect North hand. In fact, even some semi-perfect hands might work. But matchpoints is nothing if not a practical game. Probably 90% of the time slam will not be a good proposition, and even when it is it might not always be possible to diagnose that in the bidding. So, we’d just boot out 3NT here, giving the opponents the minimum of information, and being prepared to apologize profusely if it turns out that 3NT is down one while 6♦ is absolutely cold!
As it happens, on the actual hand the advice above is more lucky than good. 6♦ is a fine contract, though it will fail on an initial Heart lead and then a Heart ruff. That would be most unfortunate for those who bid the good slam, they deserved a better fate.
Meanwhile, most of the N-S pairs will be toiling away in a 3NT contract. As East, what is your choice of opening lead? - A Spade? Against 1NT 3NT auctions there is a predisposition to lead a major suit, using the logic that, as South failed to invoke Stayman, the majors might be a happier hunting ground than the minors. If East buys into that logic and leads a Spade, Declarer will count 10 tricks and will set up an 11th at Trick Two by leading a Heart towards Dummy. East’s play of the Jack will be duly noted and West will win the trick. A Spade comes back, the A♣ is cashed (no reason not to), a whole bunch of Diamonds will be cashed and Declarer will have to decide at Trick Twelve whether or not to take that greedy Heart finesse for 12 tricks (risking only 10 if it fails). - A Club? If East spurns the major and leads his best suit instead, Declarer will duck the first one (no point in ducking a second, that would give the defense 3 tricks right away when Declarer has 10 of his own). After winning the second Club it won’t be clear to Declarer whether Clubs are 5-3 or 6-2. If they are 6-2, and if the A♥ is with the Club shortness, then an 11th can be set up by playing on Hearts before cashing the second Spade. That’s too much of a long shot for our taste, but hope springs eternal, so Declarer rattles off the 7 Diamonds, hoping that the defense is under pressure (real or imagined). East must find 6 pitches, no less, and may be concerned that Declarer has AKx in Spades. If that were the case, he would need to hold on to T9x in Spades, meaning that he must part with 3 Clubs. With only one enemy Club outstanding, now it is safe to play on Hearts next, setting up the 11th trick.
West’s Double was minimum, but White vs Red, with both majors, who could resist? North concluded that her hand was too good for a preemptive 3♣, so she responded 2♣ only, then bid Clubs again the next time around. Over 2♣, East was not good enough for a 3♣ cue-bid, that would typically show both majors and game-invitational values. So rather than commit to one major or the other he made a Responsive Double.
With West declaring 3♥, suppose that North leads the A♣ and continues a Club. In order to make 9 tricks Declarer must pick up both major suit Queens. Will he? Please see the Play Problem.
It’s quite possible that South will wind up declaring 3♣ (East’s 3♥ was far from obvious) in which case there are five inescapable losers.
Although N-S have slightly more than their fair share of the HCP’s they have no convenient way of getting into the auction. But that is just as well, if N-S make the mistake of bidding up to 3♣, East is sure to double with a mighty roar and that will be -300 for N-S.
2♠ is not much of a contract either, especially if, as likely, North’s opening lead is a Heart. The play might go: Three Hearts are cashed On the 4th Heart, Declarer pitches a Diamond, North ruffs Spade won by Declarer Two more Spades are cashed Club won by North’s Ace Now Declarer’s Diamond loser goes on the K♣, but the defense still has a trump to come, and that is down one.
South’s 2♣ was an Inverted Raise, showing at least game-invitational values and no 4-card major. North’s 2NT showed a minimum balanced hand, and South then made a natural slam invitation. Having already declared a minimum hand, North felt that she had enough extras to go to slam (5-card suit, good Club fillers). And rightly so.
The N-S hands fit well together, and the slam requires no more than a little luck in Clubs. On the actual layout the play of the Clubs presents no problem. But suppose that West had been able to follow low on the first round, what’s the best play for 4 tricks? The winner is to finesse, and to finesse again if West plays low on the second round too. That line comes in at 76% compared with just 66% for cashing the A♣ on the first round. The in-between play of finessing on the first round and playing for the drop on the second round has an appropriately in-between percentage of 70%. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Suit Combinations”>>
A difficult hand for North to bid opposite that 1NT opening. One choice was to overbid the hand by transferring and rebidding Diamonds, forcing to game. The objective of that sequence would be to deflect South from No Trump unless she had good black suit holdings. Alternatively, as above, South could transfer and then invite game with 2NT. Neither of these approaches is perfect, so choose your own imperfect plan. As for South, it’s not completely clear that she should bid 4♥ over 2NT (although it would be clear to choose Hearts over No Trump if North shows her Diamonds).
If N-S wind up in 3NT, West is unlikely to find the killing Club lead, and will probably lead a Spade instead. Now suppose that Declarer is clever or lucky enough to guess the location of the J♥. When East wins the A♥, he can make Declarer very nervous by shifting to the J♣, but Declarer rises hopefully with her King and that is 11 tricks and a top board. Strangely, East does better not to shift to a Club, and, let’s say, shift to a Diamond instead. When this happens, Declarer heaves a huge sigh of relief and grabs her 10 top tricks while she still can. She never does score her K♣ and ends up with a moderate board.
If South is Declarer in 4♥, West might well lead a Spade, as before. Now the percentage Heart play is low to the Queen and finesse the Ten, after which Declarer is on course for 11 tricks and a good board. One of Dummy’s Diamonds will go on the fourth round of Spades and the other on the K♣ when the Ace is obligingly with East.
North’s 3♦ was natural and forcing, perhaps North was entertaining some optimistic slam thoughts. Against 3NT, it seems normal enough for West to lead the J♥, which is won by Declarer. Now what? We can see three possible scenarios playing themselves out: - Scenario 1: This Declarer is armed with the knowledge that a 2-2 Diamond break is only 40% likely, so at Trick Two she takes the Diamond finesse, ensuring 10 tricks. - Scenario 2: This Declarer decides to go for the gusto, by cashing the Diamonds from the top. However, East plays the J♦ on the first round of Diamonds, and our unfortunate Declarer, being cursed with an intimate knowledge of the Principle of Restricted Choice, returns to hand and finesses the second round of Diamonds. Oops! Now Declarer will be down one when East shifts to Spades. - Scenario 3: This Declarer is blissfully unaware of probabilities and Restricted Choice. She plays the Diamonds from the top and scores 12 tricks!
Aggressive bidding by E-W! But reasonable, we think. East’s 3♣ showed game-invitational values (or better), no doubt he liked the extra trump, Heart doubleton and Diamond fillers, and decided to upgrade his 9-count. West obviously fell in love with that Club singleton and the good trumps and went to game.
System Note With the opponents bidding two suits, East had a choice of cue-bids with which to show Spade support. One commonly used method in this situation is: - With 3-card support make the cheaper cue-bid (2♥ here) - With 4-card (or better) support make the more expensive cue-bid of 3♣.
Against 4♠, South will presumably lead the A♣ or the K♥, which are equally unsuccessful. The only way to beat this contract is a Diamond lead, then a Club back, followed by a Diamond ruff. That’s 3 tricks for the defense with a Heart trick still to come. This defense seems highly improbable, surely 10 tricks are more likely.
If E-W are less forceful in the auction, it’s quite possible that it will be N-S who end up declaring an aggressive game, this time 4♥. Again, a defensive ruff is available, but that doesn’t beat the contracr and if the defense is to prevail they must be more subtle. Here is one defense that doesn’t work: A♠ is cashed Club shift won by Declarer’s Ace K♥ is led and ducked! (good play, but not good enough!) Q♥ won by East’s Ace Now, it doesn’t work for East to give Partner his ruff, because all the trumps will be gone, and Dummy will still has the A♦ as an entry to the Clubs. Nor does it work to knock out Dummy’s A♦ (after winning the A♥), because Declarer can ruff a Spade, draw trumps, and run the Clubs (for 11 tricks!).
The winning defense is for West to lead a Club at Trick One: Club to Declarer’s Ace K♥ is ducked by East (necessary!) Q♥ is won by East’s Ace Diamond to North’s Ace (also necessary!) East has declined to give West his Club ruff, but that was the only way to beat the contract. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Disrupting Declarer's Entries”>>
In this situation, West’s 3♠ is usually not played as a game try, it is purely preemptive. West knows that he’ll compete to 3♠ sooner or later with that lovely distribution, so he chooses to do so immediately in order to make it harder for the opponents to get together. If West had wanted to make a game try he would have bid a new suit, or else redoubled to show a good hand.
Against 3♠ North might well lead a low Heart. Declarer wins, plays the Q♠ to North’s Ace, loses a Heart, ruffs a Heart, crosses to the K♠, and runs the J♣. All’s well, and Declarer loses a trick in each suit for +140.
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