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Hand Analyses 21st May, 2008
There’s an abundance of links on this page, here’s what they all mean: - Notations such as Bidding Quiz (North) are links to the weekly Bidding Quiz, a selection of the 15-20 most interesting bidding situations of the week. - Each week we pick out two or three hands which are suitable for presentation in problem format, as in Play Problem 203 (West), linking you to a page with only two hands on display. Solve the problem first, then see the solution and the entire deal. - Some analyses contain references to bidding conventions, and you’ll see links to articles in our Convention Library such as Roman Key Card - In BridgeOpedia we have categorized by theme the entire history of the most instructive Wednesday Game hands, two year’s worth. Occasionally you will see a purple arrow, linking to the relevant BridgeOpedia section. For example, in this week’s Board 5, Declarer manages to execute a Double Squeeze. Adjacent to the text for that hand you will see the link >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Double Squeezes”>> which will transport you to the collection of hands with the same theme.
With that East hand, after North’s 3♦ preempt, would you double or bid 3NT? Either could work, and it’s a close decision in our view. That Diamond holding says “3NT”, the two 4-card majors seem to be saying “Double!” If East does double and West bids 3♥ or 3♠ then East will raise to game, of course. With West likely to be short in Diamonds there is an improved chance that he has a 4-card major (substantially better than 50% we would say). But, even so, we’d guess to bid 3NT, it might make the same number of tricks even if there is a 4-4 major fit (remember a 4-1 trump break is an increased possibility after the preempt). But it really is a guess, you could no doubt find many fine players who would opt for a Double.
On to the play. Let’s start with 4♠, which would be played by West. There’s not much to this one, Declarer will safety play the trumps by playing the King on the first round and then finessing the Ten on the second round. Why? He is guarding against QJxx in the South hand. Why not try the safety play the other way? Because North is the one who preempted and therefore the one more likely to be short in Spades. As it happens, it matters not, and the 4♠ Declarers will lose a trump and a Club. 11 tricks and +450 for E-W.
Now we come to the really interesting part! How does 3NT (by East) play? If you are a bottom-line kind of person we can tell you right now that good Declarer play will bring in 11 tricks whatever South leads.
If South leads the T♣: South might spurn North’s suit and try a surprise attack with the T♣. Dummy’s Q♣ wins that first trick, and Declarer can count 10 tricks, assuming that the Diamond finesse is working and that there are 3 Spade tricks to be taken. This being matchpoints, we much prefer 11 tricks to 10. Where is that 11th trick coming from? Please see the Play Problem.
If South leads a Diamond: Declarer wins the opening Diamond lead, and leads a low Club to the Queen (South ducking). Now, Declarer is in a similar situation to above, for more on which please see the Play Problem.
In the E-W 2/1 style, 2♣ was game-forcing. Why not 2♥ instead of 2♣? Well, a 2/1 bid normally shows a 5-card suit, but sometimes we have to fudge things a bit when we have no other convenient bid. And, when there is some fudging to be done, we much prefer to do it in the minor suits than in the majors. Anyway, after the slightly fudged 2♣ the obvious 4♠ game is easily reached.
Against 4♠, we have no idea what South is supposed to lead, but all roads seem to lead to 11 tricks. All that Declarer needs to do is to negotiate a Diamond ruff in Dummy, so he will postpone the drawing of trumps, playing first on Diamonds.
Back to the Bidding. Perhaps we are just getting old, but two-level vulnerable overcalls make us nervous, all the more so when the opponents are not vulnerable. As South, would you have overcalled East’s 1♠ with a 2♥ bid? It’s a little underweight (and a 3♥ preempt would be unthinkable at this vulnerability) but there is the lead-directing benefit. Or is there? The most likely contract at this stage in the proceedings appears to be a Spade contract by East, putting South herself on lead. Anyway, we think that 2♥ by South is distinctly iffy. If South takes the plunge she might well get punished by aggressive opponents. West will make a salivating Pass (if that is not on their Convention Card then it will be a drooling Pass, but either way it must be smooth and in tempo). East will balance with a Double, West will pass, and the defense will rack up 7 tricks and +500 (beating their own non-vulnerable game).
We are not going to claim that the featured auction is the only way to bid the hand. Certainly not, it involves a number of special methods not universally used. On top of that there are some judgment issues, and, as if to add to the confusion, the final contract of 6♦ is not the par spot, N-S should surely be playing this one in 6NT. But the featured auction at least raises some interesting points, so let’s start there: - 1NT: Two issues here. Do you open 1NT with a 5-card major? Yeah, that’s what we say, please follow the link. But, even if you buy into that 5-card major thing, you may think that the South hand is a bit too good, what with the 5-card major and the maximum 17-count. We think that it’s OK for 1NT, others might not. - 2NT: As played by this N-S pair, 2NT is a transfer to Diamonds. - 3♣: Again, as played by this pair, 3♣ says “I don’t like Diamonds” (many pairs, maybe most, play it the other way around, whereby 3♣ says “I like” and 3♦ says “I don’t”). - 3♠: A common treatment for those playing Minor Suit Transfers is that this bid shows shortness. It’s not necessarily a slam try, it could merely be an attempt to find the best game. - 4♦: Played by this pair as Roman Key Card (Minorwood). Other pairs prefer Redwood and would therefore use 4♥ as Roman Key Card. But, either way, we strongly suggest that you use one or other of Minorwood and Redwood (or even Bothwood), because using 4NT for Roman Key Card in minor suit auctions is simply not effective. - 4NT: Two Key Cards without the Queen of trumps. - 6♦: Perhaps North should have tried 6NT but he could not be sure about the Spade situation. A gadget-laden auction to the second-best spot.
Suppose that South decides to open 1♠. Here’s what might happen: 1♠ 2♦, 3NT 4♦, 4♥ 5♦, 6NT. 2♠ was game-forcing, 3NT showed 15-17, 4♦ was natural and forcing (not Minorwood as Diamonds not agreed), 4♥ was Redwood (now agreed inferentially), etc. We are not entirely convinced by this auction either, so we’ll just say “Well done!” to all those pairs who reached the optimum spot of 6NT.
The play of the hand is so much easier than the bidding, it’s 13 tricks in both Diamonds and No Trump when the K♦ is onside.
Opposite a Weak Two, South is thinking slam, of course. How do you play 2NT here? There are numerous methods available, our own favorite is a variation of Ogust, Opener’s responses being: 3♣: 5-card suit, any strength (after which 3♦ asks about hand strength) 3♦: 6-card suit, bad hand 3♥: 6-card suit, medium hand 3♠: 6-card suit, good hand Despite the trump fillers and the singleton, North’s meager collection of Queens and Jacks qualifies as “bad” and the slam hunt is abandoned.
Defending against 4♥, how many Easts found that wicked Club lead? Leading away from a “King fifth” holding against a suit contract is usually rather dangerous, but here less so than usual. The strength is clearly marked in Dummy, and if Partner does not have the A♣ then Dummy probably will. Anyway, without a Club lead Declarer has 12 easy tricks when the K♥ is onside doubleton. With a Club lead it’s only 11 tricks. Or is it less? If Declarer is of a nervous disposition she might read the opening lead as a singleton in which case she may fly with Dummy’s Ace. Oops, now it’s only 10 tricks! Nice lead, Mr East!
As in Board 2, this hand illustrates the dangers of two-level vulnerable overcalls. And it also illustrates the dangers of not making them. First, let us see what happens if North, having passed originally, chirps in with 2♦ over 1♥. An aggressive East might go for the jugular by passing, and then passing again when Partner makes a reopening Double. That’s an easy 500 for the defense and a top board. In that case, the overcall is not a success, but it will work out fine against a less aggressive East who will end up in 3NT, making 9 tricks after South’s dutiful Diamond lead.
Now for the danger of not overcalling 2♦. The auction will proceed as shown above, and, with no North overcall to guide her, surely South’s opening lead will be the J♠. This gives Declarer better timing and now he is cold for 10 tricks, via 2 Spades, 2 Hearts, 2 Diamonds and 4 Clubs. But it could get even worse for the defense! Look at how the play might unfold: J♠ opening lead, won by North’s King Diamond return won by Dummy’s Ace A♣ is cashed, then the J♣ (North ducks this in case South has Qx) North wins the third round of Clubs Diamond is won by Declarer’s King The remaining two Clubs are cashed Here is the end-position with one Club still to be cashed: North ♠ ♥ Q64 ♦ JT8 ♣ Dummy Declarer ♠ A76 ♠ Q9 ♥ AKT ♥ 7 ♦ ♦ 54 ♣ ♣ 4 South ♠ J82 ♥ J85 ♦ ♣ On the play of the last Club, South cannot discard a Spade so must part with a Heart, after which Dummy discards a Spade and North a Diamond. South has been squeezed out of her Heart guard and now, after a Spade to Dummy’s Ace and a Spade back to the Queen, it is North’s turn to be squeezed, she must surrender the 11th trick in one red suit or the other. Yes, it’s a Non-Simultaneous Double Squeeze, and it was all North’s fault. First, her silence in the auction did not help Partner find the right lead (though this did also avoid risking an unseemly penalty), then she failed to break up the double squeeze (she must return a Heart when in with the K♣). >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Double Squeezes”>>
West was rock-bottom minimum for that 2♥ bid but figured that the 6th Heart had to be worth something.
Against 3♥, North leads a Spade which Declarer will know to be a singleton. So, he jumps up with Dummy’s Ace, plays the A♥, then A♦, K♦ and a Diamond ruff. Now, a Spade is led from the board and South wins the King and gives Partner a Spade ruff. But, alas for the defense that ruff is with a natural trump trick, so Declarer scrambles home with 9 tricks.
Against 3♦, East leads the A♥, then K♥, which Declarer ruffs. If trumps are 2-2 and if the Q♠ is onside then Declarer can make her contract easily enough. But, if trumps really are 2-2 then that Spade finesse is only a 50% chance. What’s the 100% line of play? Please the see the Play Problem.
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