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Hand Analyses 16th April, 2008
There’s an abundance of links on this page, here’s what they all mean: - Notations such as Bidding Quiz (North) are links to the weekly Bidding Quiz, a selection of the 15-20 most interesting bidding situations of the week. - Each week we pick out two or three hands which are suitable for presentation in problem format, as in Play Problem 203 (West), linking you to a page with only two hands on display. Solve the problem first, then see the solution and the entire deal. - Some analyses contain references to bidding conventions, and you’ll see links to articles in our Convention Library such as Roman Key Card - In BridgeOpedia we have categorized by theme the entire history of the most instructive Wednesday Game hands, two year’s worth. Occasionally you will see a purple arrow, linking to the relevant BridgeOpedia section. For example, in this week’s Board 1, Declarer has a suit combination problem, and adjacent to the text for that hand you will see the link >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Suit Combinations”>> which will transport you to the collection of hands with the same theme.
South used the Jacoby 2NT, showing a game-forcing Spade raise. Using standard methods Opener shows a singleton, so North might well have bid 3♣ on her actual hand. However, when that singleton is an Ace or a King, there is a lot to be said for not showing the shortness. Instead, North leaps to 4♥, showing a bad hand (down-valuing because of that singleton King).
Against 4♥, it’s easy enough for Declarer to score 10 tricks, but are 11 possible? Let’s say that East leads a minor suit. Trumps will be drawn, the A♦ will be lost and the minor suit winners cashed. Now, with nothing but trumps and Spades left, how should Declarer play the Spade suit for one loser? One possibility is to cash the Ace, then to play low towards the Jack. This holds the Spade losers to just one whenever one defender or the other has Qx or Kx or KQ of Spades or when East has the singleton K or Q. That line of play works out at 31%. Or does it? An expert West, holding Qx or Kx (where the low card is not the Ten), will cleverly avoid the endplay by jettisoning his honor! So, against such a player, the odds drop down from 31% to 21%.
The second way to play the Spade suit is to lead the Nine from the board towards Declarer’s Jxx, planning to play low from hand. Now, if East holds the KQ without the Ten, he will be end-played. This one comes in at only 20%, so it’s better to go for that earlier line, regardless of the expertise of your opponents. Unlucky! The winning play is also the anti-percentage play, sometimes a little knowledge is a dangerous thing! >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Suit Combinations”>>
Playing in 3♥ North will be struggling to avoid going down two. Let’s say that East leads the Q♠, ducked in Dummy. Spades are continued and the third round is ruffed in Dummy. On the board for the first and last time, should Declarer take the Club finesse, or the Heart finesse? Clearly the Club finesse offers the better odds because the Heart finesse will unnecessary if the Q♥ will come down singleton or doubleton. Good thinking, especially on the actual hand! The Club finesse works, and the Q♥ does come down doubleton. There are two Diamonds to be lost, but that is 9 tricks for Declarer. However, if Declarer had taken that Heart finesse, she would have gone down two!
North does not really have an opening bid, of course, but in 3rd seat she could hardly not mention such a lovely suit, if only for lead-directing purposes. By the same token, East, with only 4 Spades, did not really have a 1♠ overcall, either. But he couldn’t double holding only two Hearts, and was loath to pass with a good hand and a good suit.
Against 3♥, let’s say that the defense starts out with Clubs and Declarer ruffs the second round. The A♥ and K♥ are cashed, felling the Queen. Now Declarer can draw the last trump, and play on Diamonds, scoring 11 tricks when the J♦ comes down, but only 9 tricks if it doesn’t.
Against 4♠, North cashes the AK♦. A third round of Diamonds is ruffed high on the board, at which point Declarer’s hand is high except for those two Club losers. Declarer does not have the entries or the trump spots to allow him to ruff Clubs on the board, so he’ll play on Hearts for his 10th (and hopefully 11th) trick. Which way would you play the Hearts? Declarer doesn’t have enough trumps to ruff out Kxx or Kxxx, so let’s forget that possibility. Instead, Declarer draws 3 rounds of trumps (ending in hand) and must now decide which way to take the Heart finesse? Either way, 10 tricks are assured, which line offers the better chance for 11? Well, the lines are comparable (27% for the finesse and 29% for the ruffing finesse), so happy guessing!
That which constitutes an opening bid is in the eye of the beholder, but in the eye of your editors that North hand does not qualify, despite the 12 HCP’s. It fails the Rule of Twenty, we hate that square distribution, and there is no lead-directing benefit from opening. Of course, South with 11 HCP’s and dull distribution does not have a sound opening bid either, but she is in 3rd seat and has 5 Spades, so 1♠ seems routine here. It turns out to be a good hand for Drury. North bids 2♣ (artificial Spade raise), South’s 2♠ says “Unsound or minimum opening bid”, and the partnership gets to play in a cozy two-level contract.
It turns out that the hand is well-behaved, and 9 tricks materialize. First, the trumps break, then some luck is needed in the red suits (either 3 Heart tricks or else onside J♦ is required to make 9 tricks). Well, that’s a great shame! We were hoping that 8 tricks would be the maximum and that we could extol the virtues of Drury and how it kept N-S at a safe level, allowing them to escape with a plus score. Alas, it looks like +140, with or without Drury, so we’ll just have to save that commercial for another day!
If this were a team game, where there is a high premium on bidding vulnerable games, West might be tempted to try for game with 3♠ over 2♠. But playing matchpoints, where frequency of gain is more important, he passes with that nondescript 10-count.
Playing in Spades, with the A♣ offside, there are 3 minor suit losers, but the lucky Heart situation allows 9 tricks to squeak home. Actually, 10 is not out of the question if South is having a bad day. For example, South leads the K♥, won in Dummy. Trumps are drawn, and a second Heart is played. If South grabs the Q♥ immediately, the 13th Heart will provide a parking place for the Diamond loser and it will be 10 tricks. How was South to know that she must duck the second round of Hearts? It wasn’t obvious, unless North could be relied upon to give count on the opening Heart lead. However, most ACBL partnerships routinely give attitude on opening lead, and that is not a good method for this particular hand.
South’s 2♠ showed some extra values and presumably 3=5=1=4 distribution but she did not feel strong enough to raise North’s 2NT to game. It turns out that 3NT is a most fortunate contract, thanks to the 3-3 Hearts and the lucky Spade situation. Here’s how the play might go: East leads a Diamond, won in Dummy Heart to the King K♦ is cashed Heart to the Ace Heart is conceded to West J♠ shift is ducked in Dummy At this point, with only Clubs and Diamonds left, West is end-played. He can cash one Diamond safely, but must then shift to Clubs, setting up Declarer’s 9th trick. Here’s one exotic wrinkle, though: if West shifts to the Club Queen (trying to force an entry to East for a Spade continuation) then Declarer cleverly ducks!
East had maximum values for that Weak Two and West’s 3♠ was merely obstructive or, in other words, furthering the preempt. Pretty normal bidding by E-W, but it did have the undesired effect of propelling N-S to a skinny 4♥ contract. Perhaps West considered sacrificing in 4♠, but with a fair amount of defense he no doubt harbored fond hopes of beating 4♥.
4♥ is a perilous affair but the card gods are with Declarer. Let’s say that East lays down the A♠ and shifts to the Q♦, won in Dummy. Then the Heart Seven is led and we’ll assume that West ducks and Declarer cleverly overtakes with the Ten. When this holds, she ruffs a Spade, cashes AKJ♣ (pitching two Diamonds), ruffs a Club, ruffs a Spade, and leads a trump from the board. Making 11 tricks! The only way to hold Declarer to 10 tricks is to lead a trump initially, holding Dummy’s Spade ruffs to just one. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Entry Management”>>
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