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Hand Analyses 19th March, 2008
There’s an abundance of links on this page, here’s what they all mean: - Notations such as Bidding Quiz (North) are links to the weekly Bidding Quiz, a selection of the 15-20 most interesting bidding situations of the week. - Each week we pick out two or three hands which are suitable for presentation in problem format, as in Play Problem 203 (West), linking you to a page with only two hands on display. Solve the problem first, then see the solution and the entire deal. - Some analyses contain references to bidding conventions, and you’ll see links to articles in our Convention Library such as Roman Key Card - In BridgeOpedia we have categorized by theme the entire history of the most instructive Wednesday Game hands, two year’s worth. Occasionally you will see a purple arrow, linking to the relevant BridgeOpedia section. For example, in this week’s Board 1, Declarer is faced with a Restricted Choice situation. Adjacent to the text for that hand you will see the link >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Restricted Choice”>> which will transport you to the collection of hands with the same theme.
North’s 4♥ bid was an attempt to jam the auction, but that was to no avail as East had a clear 4♠ bid. There’s nothing to the play in 4♠, it’s an easy 11 tricks when the A♣ is onside.
North no doubt considered bidding 5♥ as a sacrifice, and that will be either a spectacular success or a spectacular failure, nothing in between. The difference between triumph and disaster will be the play of the Club suit. The defense starts out with Diamonds and Declarer ruffs the second round. Declarer cashes the A♣, noting the fall of the Ten from East, then plays three rounds of trumps ending on the board. The bidding suggests that the K♣ is with East (though it’s no certainty), and the play of the T♣ is a further indication for Declarer to run the 9♣ on the second round of the suit (it’s another application of the Principle of Restricted Choice). It was nice play by Declarer to cash the A♣, rather than take a first round finesse. A well-earned top for those N-S pairs who escaped for -300! >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Restricted Choice”>>
Back to the bidding. Many, perhaps most, Easts will make a Michaels Cue-Bid (in this case showing Spades and a minor) over the 1♥ opening, and that is a matter of partnership style. Those Easts who like their Michaels bids to be weak or strong (but not in between) may consider this hand a tweener, though it looks pretty close to a strong Michaels, don’t you think? Anyway, the Michaels bidders should have no trouble getting to game for the same result as the 1♠ overcallers.
There’s not much to the bidding here, but as North what would you lead against 4♥? Here are the possibilities: - A Trump? Surely not from that holding, it’s too likely to blow a trick. - A Diamond? There’s not much point to this opening lead, it’s unlikely that the defense’s Diamond tricks are going anywhere, so all that this lead is likely to do is to give up a tempo. - A Spade? This looks relatively safe and from North’s point of view it might well set up a Spade trick before Declarer’s Spade loser goes on a Diamond. - A Club? Yes, this looks like the most dynamic lead to us, there might well be a second Club trick for the defense on the right layout. But the relative shortness of the suit could also save Declarer a Club guess on some layouts.
So, it looks to us like a choice between a safe Spade and an aggressive Club, and we are delighted to be able to report that both of these leads hold Declarer to 10 tricks. If North leads a Diamond then Declarer will win the K♦ in hand and lead a Heart … now North can save the day by jumping up with the A♥ and shooting back a Club, any other defense will allow Declarer to make 11 tricks. Finally, if North leads a Heart for some strange reason it will be 11 tricks, that Club loser will disappear on the 13th Diamond.
South’s 3♦ is not exactly text-book, but at favorable vulnerability nobody cares much about text-books. After West doubles, East had to choose between a penalty pass, 3NT, 3♥ or 4♥, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
These are the possible outcomes: - If East makes a Penalty Pass: The vulnerability works against this choice, and although it goes down three tricks that is not enough to compensate for E-W’s vulnerable game. - If E-W bid the Heart Game: 12 tricks are made provided that Declarer does not make a mistake in the play of the Spades. He’ll play North for the Q♠ based on the bidding, but, as Declarer cannot pick up Qxxx in the North hand (the spots are not good enough), he should start out the suit by playing Dummy’s Ace, getting rewarded when South’s Queen comes tumbling down. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Suit Combinations”>> - If East bids 3NT: We confess that this would be our choice, but it’s not the winner when it turns out that only 11 tricks are available. - If West plays in 4♠: This might happen if South feebly declines to preempt with that moth-eaten Diamond suit. Now, the auction might go 1♠ 2♠, 4♠, and it’s an easy 12 tricks with the aid of a Club ruff in Dummy.
On this board we can predict with confidence that there will be almost as many different auctions as there will be tables in play and that there will be final contracts in all four suits. Let’s look at each action in turn: - West’s 1♣: This one doesn’t pass the Rule of Twenty, but it’s close enough for us. The singleton, the long suit, and the two-and-a-half quick tricks, all indicate action, and with two Aces it’s certainly not a hand that one would want to preempt on. So, 1♣ it is! - North’s 1♠: One of the few bids in the entire auction to which nobody could take exception! - East’s 2♦: East had the choice between bidding Diamonds and raising Clubs, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. - South’s 2♥: South also had the choice between raising Partner and introducing his own suit. We are always encouraged to “support with support”, but it’s hard to ignore a 7-card major, don’t you think? So, South bids her own suit first planning to support Spades later. - West’s 3♦: First, West opens on what some would say are sub-minimal values, now he freely raises Partner at the 3-level. And rightly so, he still has the same hand that he originally thought was worth a 1♣ opening, and he has shortness in one of the enemy suits, so there’s surely no good reason to withhold that Diamond support. - North’s 3♥: The K♦ appears badly placed, and the Heart support is not the greatest, but it would surely be wrong not to raise Partner here. - East’s 4♣: East may have been minimum for his first bid (at least in terms of HCP’s), but his hand has gotten better with each successive bid. East might be tempted to withhold his Club support, reasoning that the hand would be better played from his side (to protect the Heart holding), but we like 4♣ here, it lets Partner in on the double fit and gives him a better chance of making the right competitive decision if the opponents bid again. - South’s 4♥: At this point in the proceedings, South (just like everybody else at the table!) has no idea who can make what, but she does know that it’s a double-fitter, and she does have 7 Hearts. Sure, she wishes that those minor suit high cards were more usefully placed, but even so it seems clear to bid 4♥ here. It would be nice to let Partner in on the Spade fit, of course, but it’s too late for that, and probably unnecessary, in light of her limited 3♥ bid it seems unlikely that Partner will be bidding again. - West’s 5♣: West bids one more for the road, not knowing whether he is bidding to make or bidding as a sacrifice. - East’s 5♦: This seems pretty clear-cut, East cannot know for sure that Partner has a singleton Heart, so he protects his Heart holding from the opening lead.
An interesting auction! N-S did well not to double 5♣, but would have done better to take the sacrifice. But that was far from obvious, this hand being an exception to the old advice “The five-level belongs to the opponents”.
As South, after North’s 2NT opening, would you bid 3NT or would you look for a 4-4 Spade fit? Just because South’s square hand has no ruffing values does not mean that there is not a useful ruff in Opener’s hand. On the other hand, South does have nothing but Queens and Jacks, and such hands tend to play just as well in No Trump. Take your pick on this one, but either way 3NT by North will be the final contract.
Against 3NT, East will probably lead a Heart. Declarer wins and plays on Diamonds, and East plays another low Heart after winning the A♦. This accurate defense ensures 4 tricks for E-W.
Anyone for a 3♣ opening bid by South? True, N-S have the vulnerability in their favor, but that’s about all that the preempt has going for it. On the down-side there are only 6 Clubs, mangy ones at that, and the two Aces provide altogether too much defense for an opening preempt. The clinching argument is that South is in second seat, the worst place for an off-beat preemptive effort. So, much as we like to jump in when White vs Red, this is not the right time for it. In fact, if South does chance her arm with a 3♣ opening she will live to regret it when East balances with a Double (yes, he should with that hand!) and West makes a penalty Pass. 3♣ doubled is down three for a (well-earned) dreadful result.
Assuming that South’s manages to refrain from the preempt, West will open 1♣, after which it seems likely that North will play it in 2♠ (that 2♣ bid by South was not showing Clubs, it was a sound Spade raise). Here is how the play might go in 2♠: East leads a Club to Dummy’s Ace Diamond to Declarer’s King and East’s Ace Three rounds of Hearts Club ruffed by Declarer At this point, Declarer does best to run the J♠ (surely the Q♠ is with East), in which case the play might continue: J♠ covered by the Queen and Ace Club ruffed by the Seven, overruffed by the Ten (East does no better by declining to overruff) Spade return won on the board Club ruff Now Dummy’s Clubs are good. Do you see where East went wrong on the defense? Yes, he should not cover the J♠ with the Queen, after which Declarer can come to just 7 tricks. However, Declarer can make 8 tricks if she finesses the T♦ at Trick Two.
When 1♥ was passed around to him, East could be fairly certain that Partner had a good Heart holding, so it was clear for him to balance with a Double rather than with 1♠. North no doubt considered an SOS Redouble, that would have been as reasonable a guess as passing.
Playing in 1♥ doubled will be a miserable experience for South, she’ll end up with no more than 5 or 6 tricks. -500 or -800 will both be bad results for N-S on this part-score hand. If North redoubles, then N-S will end up in 1NT or 2♦ (both will be doubled), also going for 500 or 800.
We don’t know about you but as West we would not be able to resist opening 2♠ with that magnificent 5-card suit. Whether this works out at the table is a moot point. Against 2♠ North leads the K♣, after which the hand will develop into a battle for ruffs in Declarer’s hand. Declarer ducks the opening lead, wins the Club continuation, and leads another Club which South does best to ruff with the Six, Declarer pitching a Diamond. Now, South cannot shift to a Heart, and it would be a mistake to start cashing Diamonds, that would allow Declarer to score all 5 of his trumps. So, best defense (after ruffing the Club) is to play a low trump. Declarer wins that and exits a Diamond. The defense wins that and leads another trump. Now a losing Heart finesse and yet another trump comes back. Declarer crosses to the A♥ and ruffs a Diamond, but the excellent defense has prevailed, Declarer can score no more than 4 trump tricks and 2 side-suit Aces.
Against 2♠, South does not have an attractive lead and might well try a trump. Declarer does best to win that in hand and lead a Heart at Trick Two. South jumps up with the A♥ and returns another trump, again won in Declarer’s hand. Now Declarer plays on Diamonds, and eventually makes 9 tricks via 5 Spades, 2 Diamonds, a Heart and a Club. The alternative (and inferior) line of getting a Club ruff also works for the same 9 tricks (except that the K♥ trick is replaced by the Club ruff).
System Note Do you play Equal Level Conversion (ELC)? If so, as South, you could double 1♠, planning to bid 2♦ if North bids 2♣. For the ELC brigade this sequence by South does not show extras, merely a minimum Double without Club support. For more on this, please follow the link. How does ELC work on the actual hand? The auction may well proceed: West North East South Pass 1♠ Dbl 2♠ 3♣ Pass Pass Pass As explained, South was planning to convert 2♣ to 2♦, but when West inconveniently raises Spades and North bids 3♣, South does best to pass and hope (surely North has at least 5♣ on this auction). 3♣ will probably be down two, mercifully undoubled, in which case the N-S -100 will prove to be a rather fine score in view of the Spade part-scores the other way.
4♥ is the place for N-S to be, making 10 tricks in a canter. Did any E-W pairs find the profitable save in 5♣? We’d say that East is the one who should make that decision, but even so 5♣ is far from obvious. All we can say is “Well done!” if you found the save, perhaps you even got extra lucky when N-S took the push to the doomed 5♥.
It’s safe to assume that N-S will get to 4♠ on this deal, and it could end up being played by either hand. If South is Declarer then West’s opening Heart lead will pick up a couple of fast tricks for the defense and when the Q♠ is conveniently doubleton Declarer will have 11 easy tricks. Of course, with North on play the Heart lead is less effective and 12 tricks are easy.
Walsh Footnote Nowadays, many players use the Walsh-style when responding to a 1♣ opening bid. Using this treatment, Responder bypasses Diamonds whenever she has a 4-card major unless her hand is game-forcing. The benefit of this method is that it goes straight to the heart of the matter, with the immediate focus being on finding a major suit fit. On the actual hand, a Walsh-style response of 1♠ by North works like a charm. South raises to 4♠ and 12 tricks are easy when the right hand turns out to be on play.
That may seem like a somewhat random triumph for Walsh responses and no doubt it is. But suppose that the (non-Walsh) auction had started as follows: South West North East 1♣ Pass 1♦ 3♥ Dbl Pass ?? This time East chose to preempt (not unreasonably), and South had no choice but to double in order to show a good hand. By necessity, this Double merely shows extras and does not guarantee Spades, merely a hand that has no other convenient bid. That being the case, North might well guess to bid the inferior 3NT rather than 4♠. How much easier for N-S if they are Walshites, leading to this simple auction, finding the major fit immediately and getting to the right spot from the right side: South West North East 1♣ Pass 1♠ 3♥ 4♠ Pass Pass Pass If you don’t play Walsh, then we recommend that you give it some consideration.
East’s sequence pinpointed the Diamond shortness so West opted for the 4-3 Spade fit in preference to 3NT. However, 4♠ turns out to be a parlous contract indeed, but with trumps 3-3 and the K♠ onside it will succeed with this simple line of play: A♦ wins opening lead Spade to the Queen Spade to the Ace Diamond ruff Club to the King Concede a Spade Now the defense can take their two Diamonds, but Declarer has the rest, making 10 tricks.
How about 3NT? That is also a contract that requires some luck. The K♠ must be onside to provide the 9th trick, and Declarer must hope that the Diamonds are well-behaved. North will lead a Diamond, of course, but which one? - In previous Wednesday Games we have discussed the practice of leading second highest from 4 small, this having the benefit of warning Partner not to expect any high cards in the suit. Of course, informative leads also inform Declarer, and so it is here. If North leads her second highest Six, and if Declarer is paying attention (a) to the spots, and (b) to the opponents’ lead conventions, then he’ll have no trouble on the hand. North’s opening lead will be from 86xx or 86xxx or else three to an honor. There’s no point in holding up the Ace in any of these cases because either the suits blocks or the Diamonds are 4-4. So Declarer wins the opening lead, plays on Spades and loses just 3 tricks for a lucky 10 tricks and a good board. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “No Trump Opening Leads”>> - If North’s opening lead is the Diamond Three, then Declarer will read this as 4th best or from honor third and again there is no reason to hold up. He’ll win the first round, lose a Spade to North, then when South wins the second Diamond, even if South continues with a tricky low Diamond, Declarer will not go wrong.
A difficult hand for N-S to bid, and it’s easy to see how they might end up in game or in a part-score, and in Hearts or Clubs or No Trump. In the featured auction, West might well have rebid 1NT, and East might well have tried 5♣ in preference to 3NT.
How do the different contracts fare? - Playing in No Trump: If the bidding is as shown above, then Declarer is likely to have a singleton Diamond, and that suggests a Diamond opening lead from South. Yes, of course, South leads the K♦, just in case Declarer has the singleton Queen! Anyway, after the opening lead of a Diamond, how would you play the hand? Please see the Play Problem. - Playing in Clubs: There is a Club to be lost for sure, which raises the question “What is the best way to play this holding for one loser?” The answer is to finesse twice against North, that’s a 76% chance of success, compared with 66% for cashing the Ace first, and 70% for finessing once and then cashing the Ace. On the actual deal the percentage play works just fine, but it’s likely that the entry situation will persuade Declarer to misguess the Hearts, so that will be 11 tricks. - Playing in Hearts: This will require some good guessing, especially if the defense starts out with a Diamond. Declarer wins the A♠, runs the 9♥, and then plays on Clubs. The defense gets a Club and a Club ruff, but eventually Declarer gets home with 5 trump tricks, 3 Clubs, the A♠ and A♦. There’s a potential 11th trick in Spades but Declarer does not have the entries to take the finesse.
Walsh Footnote For the second time today we have a deal where the Walsh-style of bidding pays dividends. Using this approach, West would not bother with his Diamonds and the auction might proceed as follows: West North East South Pass 1♣ Pass 1♥ Pass 1♠ Pass 3♣ Pass 3♥ Pass 4♥ Pass Pass Pass
East’s opening preempt puts South under pressure but perhaps not that much, it’s clear to bid 4♥ here. As it happens, E-W have a good sacrifice in 5♦, but it’s hard to fault West for passing, with good defense against 4♥ and the seeming possibility of giving Partner a Spade ruff. The play in 4♥ is simple enough, Declarer losing a Spade, a Heart and a Diamond, and needing to guess the Club situation for 10 tricks (not difficult in the light of the bidding). >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Remembering the Auction”>>
If the E-W methods provide for a penalty double of 1NT, then that would be West’s obvious choice. If that happens then there’s no good reason for North to run to a suit contract, and on an opening Heart lead the defense will score 8 tricks for a juicy +500. Alas for our featured E-W pair, they appear to be playing DONT and so will miss out on the fun, scoring the same number of tricks but getting only +200 for their efforts. DONT is a good method for getting into the auction over their 1NT, but once in a while, as here, the chance of a nice penalty will be lost.
Most tables will no doubt play this one in a Heart part-score, which brings in 9 easy tricks (or 10 if West forgets to lead a Club initially). One small point in the play of the Heart suit, though. Should Declarer lead low towards the King or low towards the Queen? The only time it will matter is when an opponent has the singleton Ace. Which opponent is that likely to be? Surely West for two reasons … he has more of the missing HCP’s … and he has longer Clubs (so therefore less likely to have longer Hearts as well). However, it matters not on the actual hand, it will be 9 tricks either way.
If E-W somehow steal it in 3♣ they can also make 9 tricks, but only by guessing the Diamonds correctly. There’s a nice symmetry here in the trump suit, as once again Declarer must decide which defender is more likely to have the singleton Ace (the answer is South), and once again it turns out not to matter. However, crossing to the K♦ in order to lead a Club would remove some Diamond options, here’s a better line of play: Win the opening Heart lead Lose a Spade, won by North’s Queen The K♥ is cashed Club to South’s Ace Club won in Dummy Spade won by South Spade ruffed by Declarer Cross to Dummy with a Club (yes, Declarer was unblocking earlier!) Ruff the last Spade Now the moment of truth has arrived, it’s time for the Diamond guess! Declarer has gone out of his way to collect clues, and can be reasonably sure that the opponents started life as follows: Either North ♠ AQx, ♥ Kxxx, ♦ Qxxx, ♣ xx South ♠ KJxx, ♥ Qxxxx, ♦ xx, ♣ AJ
Or North ♠ AQx, ♥ Kxxx, ♦ xxxx, ♣ xx South ♠ KJxx, ♥ Qxxxx, ♦ Qx, ♣ AJ
Which layout is more consistent with the bidding? Let’s look at South first. Yes, she would no doubt have bid the same with either of those two hands, even without the Q♦ she would have an opening bid. How about North? Surely if North had 11 points opposite an opening bid she would not be selling out to 3♣. So, we would play South for the Q♦, even though she is the one with fewer Diamonds. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Remembering the Auction”>>
Whatever happens on this board will be partly a function of the N-S methods. After 2♦, what is your agreement on a 3♦ cue-bid? Some play this as showing the majors, others play it as asking partner to bid 3NT with a Diamond stopper (the bid usually being based on a running suit). Here is what might happen in those two cases: - If 3♦ asks for a Diamond stopper: In this case South will presumably bid 3♦ and 3NT by North will be the final contract. That will be 10 tricks for Declarer (or a whopping 12 if East makes the unfortunate opening lead of a low Diamond). - If 3♦ is for the Majors: Now South has the choice between a heavy 3♣ and an off-shape Takeout Double. Neither is perfect, take your pick. As it happens Double is the winner, collecting a large penalty when North passes.
Just how large is that penalty? Here’s a top-notch defense which inflicts the maximum pain on Declarer: A♣ is cashed Q♠ covered by the King and Ace Q♥ to South’s Ace J♠ is cashed J♥ covered by the King and ruffed Spade ruff T♥ is cashed At this point Declarer has lost all 7 tricks and is down to nothing but trumps. However he plays Diamonds he’ll lose three more tricks. Down 5 for -1100! Nice double, nice defense!
East’s 2♣ was Drury, showing game-invitational values and Heart support. This common treatment applies only to passed hands opposite an opening bid of 1♥ or 1♠ and is intended to cater for the possibility of a light 3rd (or occasionally 4th) seat opening from Partner. As the convention is usually played, Opener will retreat to two of the major with sub-opening values (technically, this is Reverse Drury).
4♥ turns out to depend on the location of the A♣ and will therefore be down one against correct defense. But it’s easy to see how 4♥ might make at some tables. For example, North might lead a Spade (or a Heart), in which case South must be wide awake to beat the contract. When South gets in with the A♠ she must shift pronto to a Diamond in the hope of a Club shift, before the Spades provide a place for Club losers. Will South get this right? If the opening lead is a Heart then surely she should, but if North starts out with a Spade, South might try to give North a Spade ruff at Trick Two and that would be fatal for the defense. If that were to happen, we would have more sympathy for South than for North, those doubleton leads never work for us either.
East’s suit might seem a bit weak for that 3♥ bid, but the intermediates are good enough.
Let’s say that South starts out with the T♣, nothing else looks appealing. Declarer wins the A♣, cashes the K♣, and plays a Diamond which is won by South’s Ace. It should be obvious enough for South to play two rounds of Hearts now, stopping the ruff in Dummy. Failure to do so will allow Declarer to make 11 tricks when the J♥ comes down doubleton.
South has no good bid in the pass-out seat so reluctantly passes. But this works out rather well when it turns out that N-S have no game and can collect some vulnerable undertricks on defense. How many? Let’s see: Diamond to the Ace Club finesse losing to the Queen Diamond continuation (good play, it knocks out Dummy’s entry before the Club is set up) Heart to the Jack and Queen Diamond ruffed by Declarer K♥ losing to South’s Ace Three Spades are cashed The defense still has a Heart trick and Club trick to come, so that is down three. Yes, Declarer could have saved a trick by guessing the Hearts better, but even -200 will be a bad board for E-W.
North’s 3♦ was game-forcing, which raises the question about the relative meanings of 3♥ and 4♥. Please see the Bidding Quiz.
The play in 4♥ is simple enough. The Hearts come in for no losers, and later in the play a Club towards Declarer’s hand sets up the 12th trick.
South’s 3♠ was perhaps a bit of a stretch, but the 5th Spade looked useful, and there was no substantial wastage opposite Partner’s marked Heart shortness. In other words, South’s modest values were all working.
Against 4♠, let’s say that West lays down the A♥. Standard practice in this situation, when there is a singleton in Dummy, East will give suit preference. If that is part of the E-W repertoire, then East plays the Two, and West dutifully shifts to a Club. Then West hops up with the A♠ on the first round and gives East his ruff. Nicely done, that is the only defense that will hold Declarer to 10 tricks. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Suit Preference”>>
West has a pretty good hand, only 4 losers, and the question is whether to double to show a good hand or to overcall 2♣. We like the overcall ourselves, though no doubt some will say that the hand is altogether too good for that. How about East’s auction? That 2♦ bid supposedly showed Club support, a good choice in the circumstances, as 2♠ and 2NT would both be serious overbids (as opposed to 2♦ which is merely a mild overbid!). After 2♥ from West, East made the sensible call of 2NT rather than confusing matters with a 2♠ bid.
Against 3NT, South will start out with the K♠, and the general treatment for this lead is that it asks for “Queen attitude”. North does not have the Q♠ so will do her best by playing the discouraging Seven. But will this be obvious to South? With so many low Spades unaccounted for, South might well place North with something like Q7xx or Q7xxx. If South gets this one wrong by continuing Spades, then Declarer will score 11 tricks, otherwise it will be just 10.
After 2♥, North had no descriptive bid available … no stopper in the enemy suit, no support for Partner, not good enough for a game-forcing 3♦, and only 5 Spades. In the circumstances, 2♠ was the only choice, after which 3NT was easily reached.
There is not much to the play, the defense get their 3 Aces but that is all. +430 all around the room?
Against 3NT, South will presumably lead a minor suit: - If South leads a Diamond: North plays the Jack, covered by the King and the Ace. Declarer leads back another Diamond, and has 12 tricks when the Hearts break and the 8♦ comes down. - If South leads a Club: Dummy plays low (providing an entry if Hearts do not break) followed by North’s Jack and Declarer’s Ace. Now, on the third round of Hearts, Declarer has a discarding problem. He does not yet know that the Hearts are coming in, so he needs to hang on to his Clubs. If he pitches a Spade that will give up on the Spade finesse, so he will pitch a Diamond. Now on the last two Hearts, Declarer pitches two more Diamonds and is at the cross-roads. He can either take the Spade finesse, scoring 10 tricks if the finesse loses, and 12 if it wins. Or, he can lose a Club, making sure of 11 tricks.
On this messy part-score hand, nobody can make much of anything, and 2♥ looks likely to be down one.
North reasonably decided to bid 2♥ in preference to 3♣, her objective being to seek a more economical auction. But economy went out of the window when South leaped majestically to 5NT, the Grand Slam Force, asking about North’s trump holding. North showed either the Ace or the King, and the slam was easily reached. For more on the responses to the Grand Slam Force, please see the Bidding Quiz or follow the link to the Convention Library.
A difficult auction for E-W. West reasoned that his prime 17 with a 5-card suit was altogether too good for a 1NT opening so he started the proceedings with 1♣. After East’s Walsh-inspired 1♠, West was faced with another decision, and decided upon a phony 2♦ reverse in preference to a 2NT rebid without a stopper in Hearts. East’s 3♣ was forcing, and eventually the bidding subsided in 5♣.
All in all, that was a reasonable auction to the par spot, but it may not be suitably rewarded in the matchpoint department: - If West ends up in 3NT (either by opening 1NT or rebidding 2NT), he will likely receive a low Heart lead from North, and that will be 10 easy tricks and +430; - If West ends up in 5♣ it will be 11 tricks and only +400. No justice! If you are wondering why Deep Finesse says that 12 tricks can be made in Clubs, it is because the Spade loser can be avoided with a “backward finesse”, that is by running the J♠, and, if that is covered, by then dropping North’s Ten. Not the percentage play, of course!
South’s 3♣ was New Minor Forcing, in this case an attempt to find a 5-3 Spade fit. When that does not materialize the final contract becomes 3NT.
Against 3NT, East does not have an attractive lead, and may well start out with a top-of-nothing Club. Declarer has three ways to play this hand: - Line 1: Declarer wins the A♣, takes the Spade finesse, cashes the A♠ dropping West’s King, and now (thanks to the onside A♦) crosses to Dummy to enjoy the Spades, racking up an astonishing 11 tricks! Of course, if East has the K♠ and at least two others he will duck that first Spade, in order to lock out Dummy’s Spades. Any Declarers who found that line of play will get a top board, but we’d suggest that they don’t brag about it too much, as that line of play is inferior in the extreme. We calculate that it brings in 11 tricks no more than 4% of the time, 10 tricks another 4% of the time (when East has doubleton King so cannot duck the first Spade) and the other 92% of the time it will result in defeat. Not very good odds! - Line 2: Win the Club lead in hand, cash A♠, then overtake the J♠ with the Queen. This line makes 10 tricks whenever Spades are 3-3 (36% of the time) or when East has doubleton King (another 8%). Even if Spades are 4-2, then the contract still has chances given some luck in the red suits. - Line 3: Win the Club lead in hand, cash A♠, then play the J♠ and low from Dummy (the defense should duck this if they can). Now, if the A♦ is with East, the Spades can be established and enjoyed. That will be 10 tricks 50% of the time, and there is the additional chance of a doubleton K♠ in either hand which takes the chances for 10 tricks up to 58%. And there are additional red suit chances if the Spades don’t come in. Yes, Line 3 looks like the winner, but Line 2 is certainly a vast improvement on that all-or-nothing Line 1. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Playing The Percentages”>>
West’s Double was not ideal considering the Club doubleton, but at least he had the majors covered. East’s 3♥ showed invitational values, and was promptly rebuffed by West.
Looking at all 4 hands it is plain to see that the defense can take 4 tricks against East’s 3♥ contract. But looking at it just from the South hand it won’t be so obvious, perhaps, and one of those tricks might get away. South starts out with a high Diamond and then pauses to take stock. There’s a danger that Dummy’s Q♦ will provide a pitch for a black suit loser, and, instead of Declarer’s actual hand, South might visualize something like: ♠ xx, ♥ KJxxx, ♦ xx, ♣ AQxx. If that is the case, then a Spade shift is urgently required. Oops! Now Declarer wins the Spade in his hand, draws trumps, and leads a Diamond towards the board, setting up a pitch for his other Spade. Making 10 tricks and +170! South’s defense here was not terrible, just wrong on the actual layout.
Here’s another board where we would expect almost as many different auctions as there are tables in play. We’d expect 4♠ doubled to be a fairly common contract, reached no doubt by various routes, and the question is whether or not the defense can beat this contract. One route to defensive success is a Club opening lead (getting two ruffs for East). More likely, West will start out with a trump, thereby eliminating any ruffs in the Declarer’s hand and holding Declarer to 9 tricks.
“Standard” preempting procedure is to bid at the two-level with 6 trumps, at the 3-level with 7, and at the 4-level with 8. Here, East has 8 Hearts, but the suit is weak, and he is vulnerable against not, so we would say that 3♥ is plenty here. East no doubt considered making a slam move, it’s pretty close, don’t you think? Anyway, bad luck to those that got to slam (it’s a tad better than 50%), that is down one when the Hearts are poorly placed.
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