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Hand Analyses 6th February, 2008
There’s an abundance of links on this page, here’s what they all mean: - Notations such as Bidding Quiz (North) are links to the weekly Bidding Quiz, a selection of the 15-20 most interesting bidding situations of the week. - Each week we pick out two or three hands which are suitable for presentation in problem format, as in Play Problem 203 (West), linking you to a page with only two hands on display. Solve the problem first, then see the solution and the entire deal. - Some analyses contain references to bidding conventions, and you’ll see links to articles in our Convention Library such as Roman Key Card - In BridgeOpedia we have categorized by theme the entire history of the most instructive Wednesday Game hands, two year’s worth. Occasionally you will see a purple arrow, linking to the relevant BridgeOpedia section. For example, in this week’s Board 13, Declarer has trump control issues to be resolved. Adjacent to the text for that hand you will see the link >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Trump Control”>> which will transport you to the collection of hands with the same theme.
Most players would not pass the East hand with those 3 quick tricks, even if it is just 11 HCP’s and a hand that fails the Rule of Twenty test. On the next round of bidding, for those pairs that play Support Doubles, East’s 2♠ guarantees 4-card support. We’d categorize West’s 4♠ as somewhat risky. He was bidding it as a sacrifice, of course, but South could well have 4 Spades on this auction, and it is easy enough to see the hand disintegrating in the face of repeated Heart leads.
If West plays it in 4♠ doubled, he will make the contract unless the defenders cash their Diamonds in time. Here are three ways in which the defense could hand Declarer his contract: - North leads her singleton Club, hoping for a ruff. But Declarer wins the opening lead, draws two rounds of trumps and starts cashing Clubs. Alas for the defense, the last trump is in the hand with the three Clubs, so a Diamond loser goes away. Making 10 tricks. - North leads a trump and again it’s 10 tricks for Declarer. - North leads the Heart Ten and South mistakenly tries to cash a second Heart before cashing the Diamonds. But surely that won't happen, North is unlikely to have 4 Hearts and 6 Diamonds.
How does 4♥ by North fare? Just fine, it’s 10 tricks, no more and no less. So, even if 4♠ doubled is beaten, E-W will have achieved a very good board.
In the previous Wednesday Game we featured Support Doubles as our Convention of the Week and in this set our obliging computer has dealt us two such hands right off the bat. Here, the Redouble shows 3-card support, West’s 3♠ was invitational (4♠ was no doubt tempting with that double fit and nice distribution), and East dredged up 4♠.
Will 4♠ make? As on the previous board the opening lead will be crucial: - If North decides to cut down on Dummy’s ruffing power by leading a trump, then 10 tricks will roll in. - Alternatively, North might lay down the A♥. Will North now find the A♦ switch, beating the contract two tricks when South scores two ruffs? South can make sure that North does! On the first trick, she should play the Jack! This will be strange-looking enough give North pause for thought. It supposedly denies the Queen, and it’s obviously not top of a sequence as North is looking at the Ten. Surely, therefore, South is trying to send a message, and what can that message be other than “Give me a Diamond ruff!” So, North cashes the A♦, leads a low Diamond (suit preference, if only for practice), and South gets her two ruffs. That dropping of the J♥ is known as an Alarm Clock Play, it's purpose being to say "Wake up, Partner, there's something I want you to do!"
West has one of those 5-6 hands where the opening bid decision is whether to bid the 5-card suit first or whether to open with the longer suit planning to reverse. Well, maybe not much of a decision, perhaps, surely that 4-loser hand is worth a reverse. West’s 4♦ was a splinter, of course, showing support for Spades, Diamond shortness, and the values for game. East, with substantial extras himself, tried Roman Key Card. The 5NT response? That showed 2 Key Cards and a void, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. East then had an easy enough 7♠ bid, surely Partner had the K♥ for his vigorous bidding (even Kxx in Clubs without the K♥ would have been enough).
Is anyone wondering where N-S were while E-W were showing off their high-tech Roman Key Card agreements? Yes, South was fast asleep it seems, at this favorable vulnerability it pays to get into the auction with 5-5 hands, in the hope of either finding a profitable sacrifice or disrupting the opponents’ auction. Here is what might happen if South is more enterprising: South West North East Pass 1♥ Pass 1♠ 2NT 4♦ ?? Anything less than 6♦ here would be quite feeble, and even 7♦ is not unconscionable. In the face of this N-S barrage it would be quite a feat for N-S to reach their grand slam.
Quick question. Suppose that you play Support Doubles (and Redoubles). Is this a Support Redouble situation? That’s a matter for partnership agreement. Our own preference is for the Redouble to show a good hand (probably 18-19 due to the failure to open 1NT and the failure to bid a second suit), we don’t see the need to show 3-card support for a minor. But that’s just our preference, as always the most important thing is that you and Partner are on the same page.
Walsh Addendum For those E-W pairs that play “Walsh-style”, East will bypass his Diamond suit and go straight to his 4-card major, perhaps leading to this auction: West North East South 1♣ Pass 1♥ Dbl Rdbl Pass Pass 1♠ Pass Pass Dbl Pass 2♣ Pass Pass Pass Now, West’s Redouble does show 3-card support for Partner, and East’s balancing Double said “I don’t want to sell out to 1♠, but I don’t know what to do”.
For the second hand in the set, the opening bidder has 3 quick tricks and only 11 HCP’s. South then bid a forcing No Trump and the shaky contract of 2♥ was reached. Unless the defense errs, there are two trumps, three Diamonds and the A♣ to be lost. That’s down one for starters, and if a Spade is also lost, then that will be down two and the dreaded -200. Declarer can avoid that Spade loser if she plays on Clubs immediately, setting up a Spade pitch while she still has an entry to Dummy with the K♥. In fact, it’s even possible to imagine E-W going astray and letting 2♥ make with this unfortunate defense: J♠ lead won by Declarer’s Ace, West playing the Six Club to Dummy’s King Heart to Declarer’s Ace Club won by East’s Ace Spade continuation won by Declarer’s King Over to Dummy’s K♥ Q♣ is cashed, pitching a Spade Another Club, Declarer pitching a Diamond, East ruffing with a natural trump trick. Of course, East has to shift to a Diamond when in with the A♣, but the Spade situation may not be clear. For example, West might have started with ♠ KQ63 and Declarer with ♠ A98 (and the A♦), holdings that would be consistent with the play to the first trick.
E-W can make 3NT but it’s a moderate game at best, we are not sure that we would want to be there. East chose to respond 1NT which looks reasonable enough to us. An alternative would be to show a limit raise in Clubs (perhaps via an Inverted Raise, if that is the E-W method), but we would classify that as an overbid.
Playing in a No Trump contract, East (or West) should come to 9 tricks easily enough. There are three Spades tricks available, plus three Hearts, two Diamonds and two Clubs. That’s 10 tricks, but the defense will surely get a trick in each suit before Declarer can collect his 10. So, we expect a bunch of 150’s and a sprinkling of 600’s.
North’s 2♣ was forcing to game, and her 4NT bid was a general slam try. Not Blackwood or Roman Key Card? Yes, many would play it as that, please see the Bidding Quiz.
6♦ requires some luck in the trump suit. South cashes the A♦ and the Ten appears on her left. Should she play for the drop on the second round? Or finesse against the Queen? These two plays are pretty close, 53% to 52% in favor of playing for the drop. Guess well!
E-W did well to stay out of slam on this board (even the 5-level is uncomfortably high), for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
The best lead for the defense is a Diamond, setting up a trick in the suit before Declarer can organize a Diamond pitch on the Spades. This makes sure of 11 tricks, maybe 12 depending on the play of the trump suit (see below). However, a Spade lead seems more likely on this auction, and now the defense’s Diamond trick will be but a wistful dream.
How should Declarer play the trump suit? The percentage play is to lead the Queen (or Jack), and, if North covers with the King, to finesse the Nine on the second round. This picks up the suit for no losers if North holds K8 or K6 or K3, but, the computer perversely dealt North KT, so the percentage play ends up losing one trump trick. Another way to play the trump suit (and the best way if the goal is to avoid two losers) is to cash the Ace and lead towards the Queen, and this approach also ends up with one loser on the actual hand.
How does 3NT fare? It will probably be played by West with an opening Club lead. That’s most inconvenient for Declarer knocking out the entry to Declarer’s Hearts before the suit is set up. In the circumstances, Declarer does best to go after the Diamonds, and the play might develop as follows: Club lead to Dummy’s Queen Low Diamond to South’s Queen Club return won by Declarer Two more Clubs are cashed (Dummy pitching a Spade and a Heart) Diamond finesse is lost to South Now, the defense can score the A♠, but otherwise Dummy is good and it’s 10 tricks for Declarer.
South can make things more interesting by returning a Heart at Trick Three, attacking Dummy’s entry before the Diamonds are set up. Declarer plays the Queen, covered by the King and Ace. The K♠ is won by South’s Ace and South reverts to Clubs. Now Declarer might well cash his Clubs (pitching a Spade and two Diamonds), cross to the A♦, cash the Spades, and lead towards the Q♥. Now: - He can jump up with the K♥, the safe play for 9 tricks, but scoring 11 tricks when the Ten comes down. - He may reason that just 9 tricks will be a bad board, and he will risk his contract by finessing the Nine. Unlucky, that’s down one. Reasonable play by Declarer, good defense by South with that entry-destroying Heart shift.
Bold bidding by South, eh? Perhaps she was still smarting from our scathing criticism on Board 3, because here she took full advantage of that favorable vulnerability. 6♦ was essentially a 6♠ preempt suggesting a Diamond lead, and 6♠ doubled turns out to be a fine sacrifice, going for only -500, a lovely score which even beats the N-S pairs whose opponents only got to game.
By the way, North would not have been completely out of line at this vulnerability if she had opened 4♠. Yes, really, White vs Red, no defense, good trump fillers, very tempting. But not at any other vulnerability.
Even if E-W are playing their Weak Twos in the 5-10 range, we’d be tempted to open East’s straggly 11-count with 2♠, those side-suit quacks are not punching their weight. Either way, 3NT by West is the likely resting place.
Against 3NT, North has more or less equal holdings in the unbid suits, and in such a situation it’s usual to lead the major suit on the theory that if the opponents have a 4-card major it might well have been bid whereas a 4-card minor is more likely to be suppressed. Based on that slender inference, let’s assume that North leads a 4th best Heart, won by Dummy’s Queen. The opening lead has given Declarer an immediate Heart trick, but it has also taken away an entry to Dummy’s Spades. In the circumstances, Declarer’s best chance is to pray that the Q♣ is with North, so he wins the opening Heart on the board, unblocks the K♠, and leads a low Club. North jumps up with the Q♣, and leads the K♥ to squash Dummy’s honor. Declarer now has 9 tricks (3 Spades, 2 Hearts, and 4 Clubs).
Suppose next that North’s opening lead is a Diamond, won by South who continues the suit. North wins the second trick and Declarer’s Queen wins the third round. Now, Declarer cannot afford to lose both a Club and a Heart to go with those three Diamond losers, so the best plan is to unblock the K♠, cash the A♣ and K♣, and play a third round of Clubs hoping for one of the following: - Doubleton Q♣, giving Declarer 10 tricks (11 if the Spades break) - South has Qxx, and also the K♥, and in which case it’s 10 tricks. - North has the Q♣, she then cashes her Diamond winner, but is now end-played into giving the rest of the tricks to Declarer. This is the layout on the actual hand, making 9 tricks.
The time has finally come for The Wednesday Game to tackle the thorny subject of Inverted Minors, and it is featured as our Convention of the Week. And for more on the featured auction, please see the Bidding Quiz.
In the play of 6♣, with Clubs 2-1, 12 tricks are easy and the attempt for a 13th fails when the Diamond finesse loses.
We asked Professor Oddbid his thoughts on the featured auction. Our curmudgeonly friend replied “%*$@#!!” and he has a point: - 2♥ at this vulnerability seems a bit much, don’t you think? We’ve had a couple of hands already (Boards 3 and 9) where N-S were encouraged to be active with favorable vulnerability, but the converse applies when it’s Red vs White, and we would say that, in the circumstances, the North hand just does not measure up to a 2♥ bid. - East’s Double is also marginal, with those minimum values and only 3 Spades. - Perhaps South’s 4♥ is not so bad, no doubt she expected a more robust Weak Two from her vulnerable Partner.
4♥ is not such a terrible contract, though there is work to be done. Please see the Play Problem.
That 3♥ bid is far from ideal, we always hate to preempt with an outside Ace. Then again, the hand is not good enough for a 1♥ opening, that would be altogether too much of a stretch. We may be in a minority but we don’t think that a 7-card Weak Two would be egregious here. But passing would be, the hand has too much offense!
Against 4♠ doubled, West leads a Heart won on the board (Declarer pitching a Club), then a Diamond to West’s Ace, a Heart ruff, and the A♠ is cashed getting the bad news. Now the best that Declarer can do is to run the Diamonds while there is still a trump on the board, retaining trump control and getting out for down one. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Trump Control”>>
If South’s Diamonds had been stronger, such that her hand was suitable for a 1♦ opening and a 3♦ jump rebid, then that would have been our choice. But with such rotten Diamonds we think that 1NT is just fine. If E-W are playing DONT then West will have no hesitation in bidding 2♥ (Hearts and Spades), after which East will be too good not to invite game with 3♥ (6-4, bid more!), an invitation that will be accepted with alacrity.
We have to say that, with North’s 6 HCP’s and strong holding in Declarer’s second suit, we would be tempted to double and lead a trump. That being the case, it’s just as well that we were not sitting North because 4♥ is cold on any defense.
How do you like South’s 2NT bid, refusing to sell out at the two-level, notwithstanding the vulnerability? Dangerous, indeed, but it doesn’t pay to keep selling out at the two-level, either. What does 2NT show? The suggested treatment is that it shows any two-suiter, not necessarily a minor two-suiter.
West, who had a top-of-the-line 2♠ rebid, showed his extra strength by doubling 2NT, and eventually N-S scrambled their way into 3♦. West did well not to compete to 3♠, that would be doubled for down two and -300.
Against 3♦, West starts out with high Spades and here’s how the play might start: The A♠ is cashed The K♠ is ruffed Cross to the A♥ Club lead to South’s King Club to East’s Queen Diamond to the Queen, King, Ace Now, there is a route to 10 tricks. Declarer finesses the Diamond Eight, ruffs a Club, ruffs a Spade, and exits with a Club, forcing East to lead a Heart into Dummy’s KJ at Trick Twelve.
Pretty play by Declarer, but after South’s death-defying balancing act, it would be a shame to risk the contract that way … if the finesse of the 8♦ loses to the Ten and West returns a trump, Declarer will be down one. The line which makes 9 tricks with safety is (after winning the A♦) to cross to the J♦, ruff a Club, ruff a Spade, and exit a Club. East can draw Declarer’s last trump, but, once again, he is end-played in Hearts.
Here’s another preemptive action at favorable vulnerability and it’s hard to say whether this one is a success or not, it all depends on how many E-W pairs bid and make their 3NT game.
Against 3♥ doubled, it’s easy to see how the defense can score 6 tricks … two Clubs, two Spades, A♥ and a Spade ruff, for +300. Do you see how the defense can score a 7th trick? Follow this sparkling defense: Low Heart won on the board Low Club, West must bravely duck(!), won by East Low Heart (not the Ace and another!) Low Club from the board, West must duck again! A♥ is cashed Q♠ covered by the King and Ace J♠ is cashed Spade ruff Another Club is cashed Down three! Spectacular defense, but still not enough to beat the E-W pairs who made 3NT.
Every pair will play this in 4♠, a contract in which Declarer has 7 winners, and can get the required three extra tricks in one of these two ways: - If trumps are 2-2, then there will be two Heart ruffs on the board, plus the chance of a 10th (or 11th) if either one (or both) of the A♣ and K♦ is onside. Note that Declarer does not have the entries to her hand to go after two Heart ruffs before drawing trumps. - If trumps are 3-1, then there will be only one Heart ruff, and it will be necessary to find two extra side-suit tricks.
It turns out that trumps are 2-2, and one of the minor suit cards is onside, so that’s 10 tricks for Declarer.
An auction with several points of interest: - West’s 3♣: On this occasion West actually has Clubs, but 3♣ in this sequence may be a bid of convenience, designed to create a force while the partnership looks for the best game. - East’s 3♦: East might have rebid the Hearts again (AKQxxx almost looks like a 7-card suit, don’t you think?), but instead marks time with 3♦. - West’s 3♥: Don’t try this unless you are sure that Partner will take it as forcing. - East’s 4♦: A cue-bid. East has a good hand for someone who was only able to make a simple 2♥ rebid. - West’s 4NT: Roman Key Card Blackwood. - East’s 5♦: 0 or 3 Key Cards (1430 responses) - West’s 5♠: This is the cheapest non-signoff, and as such is the Queen Ask. - East’s 5NT: Shows the Q♥ but denies a side-suit King (which is impossible, anyway, considering the 2♥ rebid).
After all that, it’s a moot point as to whether West should opt for 6♥ or 6NT or 7♥. Assuming a 3-2 Heart break, Declarer can count 12 top tricks in No Trump. On the other hand, a 13th might materialize somehow or other, and there is more chance of that happening in a Heart contract. For more on this please see the Bidding Quiz.
If the final contract is 6♥ (or 7♥), the opening lead will be crucial. On any opening lead but a Club, Declarer is able to draw trumps and establish the long Spade for the 13th trick. However, a Club lead knocks out one of Dummy’s entries prematurely, and holds Declarer to 12 tricks. Fortunately for N-S, a Club lead stands out with the South hand.
If the final contract is 6NT, E-W will be held to 12 tricks on any lead. The best chance for a 13th trick is a Spade-Club squeeze against South, but, with North in control of both black suits, and discarding after Dummy on the run of the Hearts, the squeeze does not function.
East’s 3♠ was a super-accept of the Jacoby Transfer. There are various super-accept methods available, for more on this please see the Bidding Quiz.
All lines of play lead to 10 tricks. Two Diamonds and the offside K♣ will be lost, but the Heart finesse works and a Heart can be pitched on the 4th round of Clubs. Looking at just the E-W hands, what is the best line of play for 11 tricks (after an opening lead of a trump)? Please see the Play Problem where we have tinkered with the N-S hands to provide a layout that rewards good play.
What was East thinking when he doubled 2♦? He would have done better to collect the undertricks 100 points at a time, scoring +200 or +300 for a fine board. Instead, he got greedy and chased the opponents into the calmer waters of 2♠. That contract makes 8 tricks with careful play and East is left with the task of explaining to Partner why he saw fit to convert a top to a bottom.
West has 17 HCP’s, a 5-card suit, and that useful Ten in his long suit, the kind of hand that some might say is too strong to open a 15-17 1NT. Perhaps, but all those HCP’s in the 3-card Spade suit are a negative, and we could go either way on this one. After the 1NT opening, East had to go via Stayman to invite game, even though he had no 4-card major, no doubt using a direct 2NT for some other purpose (such as Minor Suit Transfers).
North leads the J♦ (or the Ten if her side plays Coded Nine and Tens). Let’s say that Declarer plays low from Dummy and wins the Ace in his hand. Declarer will play on Hearts, and the best way to do this is to cross to the K♠ and lead a low Heart from the board. In order to beat the contract, South must find a truly terrific play. Yes, she must hop up with the King and shoot back a Diamond! This piece of brilliance preserves North’s entry and allows the Diamonds to be enjoyed before the Hearts are established. Declarer did well to lead that first Heart from the board, if he had led the Q♥ from his hand, North would have ducked and the defense would have been easy. But, on this occasion, great defense beats good Declarer play.
It’s quite possible that West will end up in 4♥. Leading from KJT9x against a suit contract is not appealing (and would give away the contract, as it happens), so let’s say that North leads a passive Spade. Declarer wins on the board and leads a Heart, and, once again, the killing (and most difficult to find) defense is to jump up with the King and shoot back a Diamond, ensuring that the defense scores two high trumps, the K♦ and a Diamond ruff.
A straightforward hand with 9 easy tricks for Declarer.
The Heart slam here is difficult to reach and we would not fault North’s Pass. From North’s point of view, there are two ways that bidding 6♥ can lose: - There may well be two cashing Spade losers; - Even if South has Spade shortage, North can still count only 11 tricks (she’ll assume that South has 8 Hearts).
Having said that, let’s suppose that you could find out whether Partner had two Spade losers or not. Now one of the objections to 6♥ has gone, but will there be enough tricks? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
West avoided the unspeakable Weak Two (rotten suit, too much outside), and then stretched to a 2♣ Drury bid next time around. But game will be reached even if West bids a less exuberant 2♠ instead.
Against 4♠, South might well lead a trump, after which Declarer can score 12 tricks this way: Win the A♠ Club finesse Cash A♥ Ruff two Clubs and two Hearts Q♠ losing to North’s King Win the return in hand, draw the last trump, enjoy the Hearts What do you think of that line of play? Pretty optimistic we would say! If the Club finesse loses the defense will play two rounds of trumps, holding Declarer to a paltry 8 tricks! Here’s a more sensible line where Declarer sets his sights lower: Win the A♠ Cross to the A♣ Cash the A♥ Ruff a Club, ruff a Heart, ruff a Club Cash A♦ and K♦ Ruff a Heart high Exit with the Q♣, hoping that the K♠ is with North or that South is end-played The cross-ruff is safer but it ends up providing only 10 tricks. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Cross-Ruffing”>>
South’s 2NT showed 11-12 HCP’s and it seems a more descriptive choice than raising Clubs or bidding 1♦. As for North, she was no doubt seduced into bidding 3NT by those lovely Clubs.
3NT turns out to be a dubious contract, but it makes on the friendly lie of the cards. West will lead the 9♠ or T♠ (depending upon her lead conventions) and Declarer will optimistically play on Hearts, won by West. Now: - If West persists with Spades, the Jack will be finessed successfully, another Heart is played, and Declarer winds up with a surprising 10 tricks. - If West shifts to a Diamond, the K♦ will score a trick, and the J♠ must be finessed for just 9 tricks.
North’s 2NT was a game-forcing Heart raise (Jacoby), 3♣ showed shortness, and 4♠ was the dreaded Exclusion Key Card Blackwood. We say “dreaded” for three reasons: - Once Exclusion has been added to their repertoire, many players have this irresistible urge to use the exotic new toy at inopportune moments. Just like they did when they first learned about Blackwood. - Exclusion veterans often have some war stories to tell about how they landed in a 2-0 fit at the 5-level and how they played magnificently to get out for down only six. - Whereas just about the whole world plays 1430 responses to Roman Key Card, it is generally agreed that 3014 responses work better with Exclusion. Well, let’s rephrase that … they work better when both partners are playing that style. Notwithstanding the aforementioned, this actually is a good hand for Exclusion, and will get the partnership to the grand slam even when the A♠ is missing. In the featured auction, 4♠ said “Tell me about your Key Cards, disregarding the A♠”, and 5♦ said “I have one such Key Card”. North reasonably bid the grand slam, no doubt praying that South did not have a death hand such as: ♠ AQ, ♥ JTxxxx, ♦ AJxxx, ♣ --. Even then, a 4-4 Club break will win the day for Declarer.
In past Wednesday Games we have extolled the virtues of the well-timed lead-directing overcall with a strong 4-card suit, and we’ve regaled you with several hands where such an overcall (or opening) has worked to good advantage. This is not such a hand, as, after South’s 4-card overcall, North quite reasonably competes to the 3-level on the presumed 9-card fit. East’s first Double said “I have a good hand with no clear-cut action”. East’s second Double was penalty-oriented.
In this situation, where the opponents have been doubled on power, it’s often a good idea to lead trumps, and that works well here. Other than trump tricks, Declarer’s only source of additional tricks is in Diamonds, and the percentage play in that suit is to finesse the Eight, playing West for QTx or KTx. Knowing that, West can make a good play by rising with the Q♦ on the first round of the suit, a play which has two ways to win: - Declarer might place West with KQ♦ and guess wrong on the second round of the suit. - Even if Declarer is unfooled by the Q♦ play, it might well disrupt her entries. She cannot duck the Q♦, that would result in two Diamond losers, and taking the Ace on the first round of the suit will allow the defense to duck the second round of the suit, if appropriate.
South’s doubleton Spade eliminated a Takeout Double, so what else but 3NT? It won’t always make, and could even prove to be quite disastrous, but passing would be pusillanimous, don’t you think?
It turns out to be a fun hand to play, please see the Play Problem.
We would not feel compelled to open North’s square 12-count but, either way, it seems likely that North will end up as Declarer in 3NT. East leads a low Spade to West’s Queen and Declarer’s Ace. Declarer will not know which defender has that missing high Spade, but, fortunately, the Diamond finesse can be taken into the safe hand. When East wins the K♦ he can go one of two ways: - The Prosaic Defense: Spades are continued, allowing Declarer to score a second Spade trick and a total of 10 tricks. She’ll score 2 Spades, 2 Hearts, 5 Diamonds and only one Club (not daring to take the Club finesse). - The Diabolical Defense: East wins the K♦ and shifts to a Club! Declarer will quite reasonably fly with the Ace, cash her winners and settle for 9 tricks. Nice shift!
So, it’s a hand where 11 tricks are always available, but 10 are more likely unless East diabolically makes it just 9 with that wicked Club shift.
There’s lots of work to be done in 3♥, but Declarer can prevail if she refrains from drawing trumps, as in this line of play: T♠, covered by the Jack and Ace Another Spade won by the King Spade ruff Three rounds of Diamonds A 4th Diamond is ruffed (if South had followed, Declarer would pitch a Club) A Club to North’s Ace A Club continuation, low from Dummy, ruffed by South Now, South must exit a Spade in order to ensure that she gets the 4th defensive trick from her Heart holding. Making 9 tricks.
1NT is a routine contract. The percentage play in the Club suit is to cash the Ace and lead towards the Queen, bringing in 3 Clubs to go with the 3 Diamonds and 2 Hearts. That’s +120.
We certainly would not argue with a 2♣ rebid from East and that works out better on the actual hand. West raises to 3♣ and that is where East will play it. He’ll make 10 tricks for sure, and maybe even 11 if South does not find the opening lead of a trump.
Back to the bidding. Did any Souths get into the auction? In this set, N-S have had a few auctions where the favorable vulnerability dictated action. The flip side of that coin is that unfavorable vulnerability suggests caution, and so it is here. If South overlooks this obvious point she might well overcall 1♠ (for the lead) and end up in a painful contract of 2♠ doubled.
West’s 2♣ was an Inverted Minor raise, showing invitational values (could be more if by an unpassed hand) and no 4-card major. East had nothing more to say opposite a passed hand, South reasonably doubled back in, and later it was West’s turn to keep the auction open with a Double in the pass-out seat. A nice 2♥ bid by South, trying for the 4-3 fit.
It looks as if South will live to regret her balancing Double. 2♣ was destined to make 9 tricks for 110, whereas 2♥ probably also makes 9 tricks, for 140 (the defense can hold it to 8 tricks if they get their Heart ruff, but that seems unlikely).
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