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Hand Analyses 16th January, 2008
After one side has opened up 1NT it’s rather rare for the other side to reach 3NT, but N-S achieved this feat in the featured auction. South’s Double was DONT (showing a one-suiter), North’s 2♣ was more or less a forced response, and East chimed in with 2♦ (primarily for the lead). South felt that she was good enough for 3♣ and North tried the game.
Against 3NT, East will probably lead a low Diamond, and that gives Declarer an easy 11 tricks provided that she can pick up the Club suit. Obviously the K♣ is onside, the worrisome card is the T♣, but when that is also onside, Declarer is home.
The play is much more fun if East tries the surprise attack of the Q♠ on opening lead (not that we think he should). Declarer does not have the dummy entries to pick up both black suits, so she’ll win the A♠ in hand, and play on Clubs. Here’s how the play might go: Q♠ won by Declarer’s Ace J♣ covered by the King and Ace Back to hand with the A♥ Finesse the T♣ Cash the remaining 4 Club winners Cash the K♥ Here’s the end-position: Declarer ♠ T5 ♥ ♦ Q8 ♣ West East ♠ ♠ J4 ♥ T9 ♥ ♦ JT ♦ AK ♣ ♣ Dummy ♠ K97 ♥ ♦ 9 ♣ If Declarer remembers the bidding and if she has been watching the discards carefully, it will be a simple matter to exit with a Diamond, throwing East in and scoring the 11th trick when East is forced to return a Spade. An unlucky lead by East? Not really, but it was poor defense to hang grimly on to those high Diamonds. On the run of the Clubs, East should have seen the end-play coming and his only hope was to jettison a high Diamond, hoping that West had something good in that suit If, in the diagram shown, East’s remaining Diamonds are K7 then West will be able to get in with a Diamond, and instead of gaining a trick, the throw-in will actually cost a trick. Nice defense!
That’s not much of a vulnerable overcall by South, but it does at least have the benefit of being a good lead-director. North showed a decent Spade raise with her 2♦ cue-bid, after which E-W steered clear of 3NT. East’s 4♦ was not forcing, so, in the circumstances, we would have to say that West’s raise to 5♦ was somewhat optimistic considering that there were surely two cashing Spade losers.
It turns out that the E-W hands fit well together (how nice of East to have a third Spade instead of a second Club!), and 5♦ makes 11 tricks on any lead.
West, he of the optimistic 5♦ on the previous board, is at it once more! Again, we’d classify his 3♥ game try as somewhat optimistic. 15 HCP’s and a 6-card suit are all very well, but look at the defects also! Two dangling Queens and the singleton K♣! These should be plenty of ammunition for a sensible Pass after East’s 2♥.
4♥ is a most fortunate contract. There are three Aces to be lost, so the Q♥ must come down if Declarer is to have any chance. Even after that good fortune, the J♠ must also be onside. If you chalked up +620 then, on this board, you can consider yourself more lucky than good.
This time, when West charges into game, he actually has his bid! A routine auction and the proverbial flat board, with 10 tricks and +620 for E-W.
If, like many pairs, N-S are playing their Weak Twos as 5-10 HCP’s, then the North hand is out of range. Or is it? Here we have a couple more of those dangling Queens, and we would have no problem with downgrading this 11-count to a Weak Two. However, we strongly recommend one or the other, when the long suit is reasonably strong there is no such thing as being too good for a Weak Two but not being good enough to open one of a suit.
How about West’s Takeout Double with only two Clubs? This is a classic “Equal Level Conversion” situation, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. That final Double by South was no sure thing, but she did have two Aces opposite an opening bid and would expect to beat this more often than not.
Playing in 3♥ doubled, Declarer has only 4 obvious losers but has no way of scrounging up enough tricks to make his contract. Even so, down one doubled for -100 is still a better result for E-W than letting their opponents play in their 3♣ contract (that one makes 9 tricks, and 10 if the defense fails to play Diamonds at every opportunity).
East (correctly in our view) decided that his hand was too good for a preemptive Diamond raise, and cue-bid instead, showing a limit raise. South’s Double showed a raise to 2♠, after which North did well to compete to 3♠.
Against 3♠, let’s say that the defense starts with Diamonds and Declarer ruffs the second round. Declarer will reason that the opponents have opened the bidding and made an invitational raise on a combined 20 HCP’s, so surely at least one of the opponents will have a singleton, what other explanation is there for their show of power? Therefore, a 4-1 trump split seems quite likely in which case trump control will be an issue. With that in mind, Declarer will play on Hearts at Trick Three, following the tried and tested strategy of setting up the side-suits early in the play. The K♥ holds the trick, Declarer finesses the Q♠, and will stop to do some point-counting: - The play in the Diamond suit will have disclosed that all the Diamonds points were in the West hand. - Similarly, West has the K♠ - So, surely, the Q♣ and A♥ are with East (what else could he have for that 2♠ cue-bid?). So, Declarer finesses the T♣, and leads the T♠ covered by the King and Declarer’s Ace. Next the A♥ is knocked out, and Dummy still has a trump to handle a Diamond continuation. West can do no better than to score one more trump tick and three tricks altogether. +170 for N-S.
West trotted out the Gambling 3NT, which, as it is generally played, shows a solid minor suit and nothing much of anything outside. East most sensibly pulled 3NT to 4♠, no doubt noticing that there was an alarming lack of entries to West’s Clubs.
Against 4♠ it seems reasonable for South to attack a red suit on the theory that the defensive winners might well be disappearing on an avalanche of Clubs. The K♦ looks more promising, and Declarer will duck this. Now, whatever South does, Declarer will be able to get a ruff on the board and will end up scoring 11 tricks (7 Spades, a ruff in Dummy, two Clubs, and the A♦).
Can the defense do better by leading a trump at Trick One? No, if South can be “double dummy” with the opening lead, then we must let Declarer be brilliant, too. He wins the trump lead and exits with the K♥! North cannot continue trumps and Declarer winds up with the same tricks as before.
Nobody will play it there (will they?) but, surprisingly, 3NT also makes! It’ll be played by West who will have the dubious pleasure of discarding 8 Club winners from his hand during the course of the play. However, Dummy has 8 top tricks of its own, and the defense cannot be prevented from conceding a 9th trick in one of the red suits.
East’s 1♣ opening was a tad light but in 3rd seat was worthwhile for its lead-directing benefit. We’d say that North was also somewhat marginal for her 2♣ (limit raise), considering the minimum point count and square shape.
Against 4♠, West dutifully leads a Club and now Declarer must guess the Q♠ correctly to make her contract. She’ll probably guess wrong, placing the Queen with the opening bidder.
East did well to tip off his Partner about the Club lead. Without that clue, West, on opening lead, could not be blamed for guessing to lead a Heart. East’s King forces Declarer’s Ace and now Declarer can play Q♥ and out a Heart. The defense will shift belatedly to a Club which Declarer wins. Her plan now will be to cash two top trumps, and then pitch the Club loser on the 13th Heart, succeeding whenever trumps are 3-2. On the actual layout, with the Q♠ doubleton, this line of play makes no fewer than 11 tricks! Yes, it pays to throw in those lead-directing bids!
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