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Hand Analyses 2nd January, 2008
There’s an abundance of links on this page, here’s what they all mean: - Notations such as Bidding Quiz (North) are links to the weekly Bidding Quiz, a selection of the 15-20 most interesting bidding situations of the week. - Each week we pick out two or three hands which are suitable for presentation in problem format, as in Play Problem 203 (West), linking you to a page with only two hands on display. Solve the problem first, then see the solution and the entire deal. - Some analyses contain references to bidding conventions, and you’ll see links to articles in our Convention Library such as Roman Key Card - In BridgeOpedia we have categorized by theme the entire history of the most instructive Wednesday Game hands, two year’s worth. Occasionally you will see purple arrow, linking to the relevant BridgeOpedia section. For example, in this week’s Board 5, Declarer scrambles his way to 8 tricks in 2♥. Adjacent to the text for that hand you will see the link >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Scrambling Tricks”>> which will transport you to the collection of hands with the same theme.
On Boards 1 and 4, North held somewhat similar hands … 17 HCP’s, balanced, with a 5-card major. For why this particular hand is not considered to be a 1NT opening, please see the Bidding Quiz.
For our first board of the New Year, we could have come up with all sorts of different auctions with these hands, so naturally we chose one of the more entertaining possibilities. Here is our running commentary: - North’s 1♠: Not a 1NT opening in our opinion, as we said before, please see the Bidding Quiz. - South’s 1NT: A Forcing No Trump in a 2/1 framework. - North’s 2♣: North is planning a stronger move later in the auction, if she ever gets another chance. - South’s Pass of 2♣: Now, it looks as if North will not get another chance. - West’s Double: West comes to the rescue of N-S with a quite reasonable balancing Double. - North’s Redouble: This says “Partner, I have a pretty good hand!” - South’s 3♣: South could have passed, so bidding 3♣ must show something extra, which, in this case, is the 6th Club. - North’s 3NT: A reasonable gamble. The Hearts are stopped, presumably the Clubs are running, hopefully the opponents cannot score too many Diamond tricks.
On to the play. Firstly, how does South fare in 3NT? West will lead a Diamond, and the standard lead (against No Trump only) with that holding is the Queen. Partner is supposed to drop the Jack if he has it, otherwise he gives count. Well, there’s one other case, and that’s the one on the actual hand. With Ax, East overtakes and returns one, but now Declarer’s Jxxx stands up, and 10 tricks are made. The only lead which beats 3NT is an improbable low Diamond (or the Nine or Ten).
Next, how about a 5♣ contract? With two Diamond losers, this obviously requires the trump suit to behave. Even if it does, there are only 10 sure tricks, and the 11th will have to come from establishing an extra Spade trick, or else from getting a Diamond ruff on the board. Going after the long Spade is preferable, because if the Clubs are 2-2 then the Diamond ruff is always a fallback position. Let’s say that East leads a Heart which is won by Dummy’s King, then A♠, Spade ruff, A♣, Spade ruff, K♣, Spade ruff, etc. Making 11 tricks.
West’s 2NT asked Partner if he had a feature, in this situation generally defined as an Ace or King (maybe a QJx or QTx would qualify). The common style is to show the feature only with a decent Weak Two, and with lesser hands to rebid the long suit. Well, East certainly has a good hand along with his feature, so he rebids 3NT and the game is reached.
Against 3NT, North will lead a Heart and there’s something to be said for leading either the Queen or the Seven. Either way, it will be a routine 10 tricks for Declarer.
Double Dummy Footnote Suppose that East somehow manages to become the Declarer in 3NT. Now, with South on opening lead, there is just one card in her hand which holds Declarer to 9 tricks. Yes, it’s the Club Nine, which allows the defense to scoop up 4 Club tricks in a hurry.
E-W did well to stay out of a hopeless Spade game. West was not quite good enough to show a limit raise, and East not quite worth a game try. South will lead the A♦ against East’s Spade contract, and Declarer will wind up with the obvious 9 tricks (5 trumps, 4 side-suit tricks, and, of course, no ruffs in that square Dummy).
We wouldn’t expect anyone to bid it, but 3NT turns out to be cold. A Heart lead is ducked, the second round is won, and with both high Diamonds in the hand without the long Hearts, 9 tricks roll in.
The computer seems to delight in dealing layouts where our recommended course of action ends up badly, and here is yet another example. We would open a 15-17 1NT, we don’t mind the 5-card major, and we don’t think that the hand is too good. After this most enlightened opening, East makes a DONT Double (a one-suiter somewhere), and South transfers to Spades. 2♠ is the final resting place, down two for the dreaded -200.
Look what happens when North is less than enlightened. She opens 1♥, East overcalls 2♦, and now the dreaded -200 is scored on the other side of the ledger. Oh, well, the “right” bid is not always the winning bid.
There are varying theories on what to open when holding 4-4 in the minors, you’ll find plenty of advocates for 1♣ or 1♦ or “better minor”. In most cases it’s not particularly important, really not worth worrying about too much, but on this particular South hand it’s essential to open 1♦. It’s easy enough to see why. If South opens this 1♣ and North inconveniently responds 1♠, South will be without a rebid.
So, 1♦ it is, followed by a rebid of 2♣. That has solved South’s rebid dilemma, but the problems are only beginning for North. What should she do over 2♣? Passing might work, but in this situation it’s usual for Responder to take a “false preference” back to Diamonds, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
Not only is this a difficult hand to bid, it’s also a tough hand to play. The two most likely contracts are 2♣ and 2♥, and 2♥ is likely to fare better, perhaps as follows: J♠ lead is won by Dummy’s Ace The T♦ is finessed, forcing West’s Ace A Heart is returned, won by Declarer’s Queen Two Diamonds are cashed (Dummy pitches a Club) A Diamond is ruffed by West, Dummy pitching a Club K♥ is returned, won by Declarer A♣ is cashed, then a Club ruff in Dummy Now Declarer ruffs a Spade with her last trump and has managed to scramble 8 tricks. It doesn’t help the defense to lead trumps at every opportunity, they still won’t be able to stop Dummy getting a ruff. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Scrambling Tricks”>>
2♣ will also stagger home if West’s opening lead is a Spade, the play will be similar to that above. However, if West starts out with an opening lead of a trump, Dummy’s ruff can be stopped and Declarer will be held to 7 tricks.
On lead against 3NT, it seems reasonable for North to start out with a Spade lead, but which one? Back on Board 2, North held ♥ QJ876, and we suggested that a lead of the Queen or the Seven were both reasonable. But here, with the weaker (and shorter) holding of QJ74, the Four is clearly called for. Anyway, North leads the Spade Four, and it’s West’s job to make 11 tricks. Please see the Play Problem.
After South’s 1♠ overcall, West has several bids available, all of which are flawed, and for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. This particular West’s choice of flawed bid was a Negative Double with only 3 cards in the unbid major, propelling E-W into a 4-3 Heart game.
The play in 4♥ is quite fascinating! For Declarer to have a chance of making the contract, trumps must be 3-3, but even then some stellar defensive play will set the contract. To have a chance the defense must start with three rounds of Spades, and the first line we’ll look at is one where the defense drops the ball Take 1: Two rounds of Spades are cashed The third round of Spades is ruffed The Heart Seven is ducked around to North In with the Heart trick, North has no Spades to lead, so Declarer wins the return, draws trumps, and has 10 tricks. Cut!
Take 2: For the defense to prevail they must to make sure that South wins the defense’s Heart trick, allowing Spades to be continued and causing Declarer to lose trump control. So, when the Heart Seven is led, South must split her honors, preventing the ducking of the trick into the North hand. If South does indeed split, Dummy must win the trick, and now another Heart is led from Dummy. North plays low, Declarer’s Ace wins, and now Declarer can safely exit to North’s Q♥, making his contract. The defenders have bungled again. Cut!
Take 3: Yes, on the second round of trumps, North might jump up with the Queen, trying to unblock the suit and force an entry into South’s hand. But that doesn’t work, Declarer simply ducks the trick. Cut!
Take 4: Let’s roll the cameras one last time and take a look at the winning defense. Two rounds of Spades are cashed The third round of Spades is ruffed The 7♥ is led, South splits her honors, Dummy plays the King, North unblocks the Queen! Stellar defense, now whatever Declarer does, he will be down one. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Blocking & Unblocking”>>
South’s 2♦ was New Minor Forcing, an artificial device for investigating the 5-3 major fit.
If South plays in 4♠ she’ll make 10 or 11 tricks, depending on the lead. Either red suit lead seems reasonable, but the Diamond turns out to be costly when it sets up a second Diamond trick in the Dummy, providing a pitch for one of the Club losers, and 11 tricks in all. If West finds the passive Heart lead, Declarer can come to no more that 10 tricks.
If the final contract is 3NT, it will likely be played by North. West has an obvious Diamond lead, and it’s 9 tricks when the Spade Queen comes down.
East’s 3NT may seem like a bit much with only 16 HCP’s, but it’s as good a guess as any. If South leads a Spade, that will be an immediate 9th trick. If South leads the K♣, Declarer will duck, then win the second round when North shows out. Declarer will have a few nervous moments, wondering if North has preempted without the A♠, but all is well when she shows up with that card. Once again, it’s 9 tricks.
2NT is a hopeless contract. North leads a Spade, and Dummy’s Queen wins. Now Declarer finesses the T♥, hoping that, if the suit is not 3-3, then South will have Qx or Jx. All that Declarer can manage is 2 Spades, 3 Hearts and 2 Clubs, for down one.
East has some unappetizing choices at his first turn. We rather like his actual bid of 2♥, it’s right on values, and those two Spade honors are almost 3-card support. But, whatever East chooses, his side is destined to play in 4♠, and it will probably make 12 tricks. For example, North leads the J♥, covered by the King and Ace, and South shifts to a Club, won by Declarer’s Ace. Declarer crosses to Dummy with a Spade, and leads the T♥. South covers and Declarer ruffs. Then trumps are drawn, after which Declarer’s 3 Clubs are thrown on Dummy’s red suit winners.
Yes, the defense could have done a trick better, but it was far from obvious. After winning the opening Heart lead, South must shift to a Diamond, taking away the entry to Dummy and stranding Dummy’s future Heart winner.
West’s 3♦ showed a limit raise and the obvious 4♠ game was promptly reached. 4♠ is an unlucky contract, there are three side-suit losers and, with normal play, Declarer will suffer at the hands of the 3-0 trump break and lose a 4th trick. However, here’s a tragic-comical defense which lets the contract make in unexpected fashion: South leads the K♥, then the A♥, showing a doubleton North’s Ace wins the Diamond shift North unthinkingly returns a Heart, and Declarer’s 9♠ wins the trick! Now, it’s an easy matter for Declarer to ruff a Diamond and run the Spade Six (more stylish than running the Ten), picking up North’s honors. That was poor play by both defenders … by South for showing a doubleton Heart when she had no trumps for ruffing … and by North for trying to give Partner a ruff, thereby compromising her trump holding. It's not an uncommon theme for the defense to promote a trump trick by forcing Declarer to ruff a side-suit, but here N-S managed something quite rare, they had the dubious distinction of demoting their trump trick! >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Trump Promotion”>>
A straightforward enough auction. How many tricks will North manage? Looking at all 4 hands, it’s easy enough to see that, provided the defense shifts early to Spades they can set up 5 tricks. If they neglect to do this, for example by persisting with Hearts, then Declarer can come to 9 tricks.
On this board, N-S did well to avoid the pitfall of 3NT, which goes down two on a Heart lead. How does 5♣ fare? Please see the Play Problem.
With the points almost equally divided, it’s hardly surprising that the 9-card Spade fit would outbid the 8-card Diamond fit.
As South, what would you lead against 3♠? There’s no obvious reason not to start out with a Diamond, and Dr Goodlead’s choice was the K♦, cleverly keeping the lead in case there is a deadly shift required from the South side at Trick Two. It turns out that there is indeed such a shift, and at Trick Two South must figure out to lead a Heart. That’s the only shift that will beat the contract two tricks and failure to do so allows Declarer to set up a Diamond trick for a Heart pitch, getting out for down one. Will South manage to find the Heart shift? It won’t be obvious, but at least she gives herself the chance by making that well thought out opening lead of the K♦. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Opening Leads”>>
East declined to make a light third-hand opening bid, no doubt on the theory that if one must make such bids they should at least be made with a decent suit and have some lead-directional value.
As for South, perhaps she was guided by the Cansino count, a guideline which tells us to open in 4th seat when our Spade length plus our HCP’s total 15 or more. On that basis, this hand qualifies, but it’s not a triumph for the method, as Pass turns out to be the winning call.
Moving on to North, her 2♣ was Drury, and we would have to say that this was an overbid. That square 10-count does not qualify as invitational, so we are delighted to report that it backfires here, as it allows East the opportunity to double showing Clubs.
Finally, West might have doubled 2♥, but he had no way of knowing that his side had no fewer than 4 natural trump tricks and could collect a penalty of 300. As it was, he went +110 by making 9 tricks in 3♣.
North and South both have nothing extra, so it’s hardly surprising that 4♠ is a distinctly iffy contract. First of all, it needs 3-2 trumps, and then it also requires the Diamond suit to come in for 3 winners. Here is what the Dictionary of Suit Combinations says about this particular holding: Lead low towards the Queen If the finesse of the Queen wins, then on the next round run the Nine If the finesse of the Queen loses, then cash the Ace and then the Jack That play in the Diamond suit yields three (or four) tricks 76% of the time, but the actual hand turns out to reside in the 24% minority.
There’s another play in the Diamond suit, one which is only slightly inferior (74%), and which happens to work on the actual hand. Cash the A♦ and then lead towards the Jack. This would not be such a bad ploy if you wanted to go “anti-field”, and felt that you “needed a board”.
West’s 2♣ cue-bid showed Spade support and values, and North’s jump to 3♥ showed extras.
The play in 4♥ could turn out to be quite violent. Suppose that East leads the J♠, ruffed by Declarer. Four rounds are required to draw the enemy trumps, and now one of two things will happen: - Declarer will play the Clubs from the top, and when the Queen does not come down, that will be just 7 tricks, for down three. - The J♣ will be run around, the Clubs picked up and that will be 12 tricks.
This is one that Declarer should surely guess right. The bidding indicates that East started with 5 Spades, and he has further shown up with 4 Hearts. That’s 9 cards for East in the majors, compared with just 4 for West. There is presumed Club length with West, and the winning Club play is clearly indicated.
This is an unexciting board. Surely East will declare 3NT, and, regardless of whether South leads a Spade or a Diamond, 9 tricks will be made.
Against 2♥, South leads a Diamond, and with careful defense N-S can beat 2♥ one trick: South leads a Diamond to North’s Ace Three rounds of Spades are cashed A Diamond is won on the board A Heart to Declarer’s King A Club to Dummy’s King North wins her Heart Ace Now North leads another Diamond, promoting South’s J♥ for the setting trick. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Trump Promotion”>>
West’s 2♦ was the so-called Inverted Minor convention, showing invitational values or better, with at least 4-card Diamond support, and denying a 4-card major. East’s 2♠ showed something in Spades and that allowed West to trot out 3NT.
Against 3NT, North leads a Heart. Having scored a trick with his K♥, Declarer can make his contract if just one of the black Kings is onside. But they are both wrong and it’s down one.
That E-W auction is usually a signal to lead a major suit, so we would expect most Norths (ourselves included) to lead a Heart in preference to a Diamond. Wrong! Here, the major suit lead does not work so well, handing Declarer 10 easy tricks, via 2 Spades, 4 Hearts, a Diamond and 3 Clubs.
If North finds a Diamond lead instead, Declarer must ferret out the Q♥ just to make 9 tricks. Will he? Probably, the percentage play with that holding is to cash the A♥ first and then to run the J♥, and that is the winner on this occasion. That raises two questions: - Why not finesse the other way by cashing the K♥ first and then leading to the Jack? The problem with that is that it does not pick up Qxxx. - Why not finesse the other way without cashing the K♥ first? No, that loses to the singleton Queen with North. As usual, it’s preferable to finesse towards the long hand, and in this case it’s a whopping 1.21% better! Hey, it all adds up! Improve the odds by that amount on every hand you declare, then over the course of 2008, playing once a week, that will add up to an extra 4 tricks for the year!
North was not good enough for a splinter raise to 4♦, but good value for an invitational raise to 3♠, notwithstanding the mere 8 HCP’s. Nice restraint by East who stoically passed throughout the auction, have nothing useful to say with his 18 HCP’s.
Against 4♠, let’s say that West starts out with a trump. 11 tricks will now follow with a cross-ruff: Declarer wins the A♠ A♦ and a Diamond ruff Heart ruff Diamond ruff Heart ruff, and so on Declarer scores 5 trumps in her hand, three Diamond ruffs on the board, A♣, A♦, and the K♥ is a surprise 11th trick when the A♥ comes down in 3 rounds and when East cannot ruff the established K♥. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Cross Ruffing”>>
South’s perfect shape is adequate compensation for that slightly light Takeout Double. North’s Double was Responsive, and that 2NT was not natural, it was the Scrambling 2NT, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. But all that N-S gadgetry was to no avail, and the E-W 9-card Spade fit prevailed.
Against 3♠, South will probably lead a Club, which is not as bad for the defense as it looks, it’s merely one less Club to be ruffed on the board. The play might go as follows: Club to Declarer’s Jack Club ruff Spade to the King Q♠ won by North’s Ace Spade return Declarer will make his contract if he guesses the Hearts correctly, and he surely should if he reflects upon the bidding and the play: - South made a Takeout Double - North has show up with the A♠ - South’s opening lead surely means that she does not have both the A♦ and Q♦. The indications are that South has the A♥, without that card her Takeout Double would have been made with 8 or 9 HCP’s. Making 9 tricks. >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Counting Points”>>
South decided that game was highly improbable opposite a passed hand and that 2♣ would be a reasonable spot. Then West balanced with 2♥ and South offered a choice between 2NT and 3♣. So, it turns out that West would have done best to defend 2♣ (-110) as 2NT makes 8 tricks.
The computer has given us some rather dull part-score deals this week and here is another one. A routine hand, 2♠ making 8 tricks. That’s the par spot, N-S cannot make anything more than 7 or 8 tricks in Hearts, and will no doubt be doubled if they compete to the 3-level.
6♣ makes but it is not a good slam, requiring the Spade finesse and some luck in the trump suit, and we’d expect most pairs to be in 4♠.
Against 4♠, East leads the J♥, and the danger is that Declarer might lose the A♦, two trumps and the third round of Hearts. That Heart loser can be avoided in one of two ways: - Line A: Play on trumps immediately. There’s an 80% chance of picking up the suit for one loser (see Footnote), in which case the trump loser is conceded and the Heart loser goes on the run of the Clubs. That will be 11 tricks (assuming that the defense grabs its A♦ when in with a trump). However, 20% of the time there will be two trump losers, and Declarer will then probably lose 2 trumps, a Heart and the A♦. Down one! - Line B: Play on Diamonds immediately. The idea here would be to establish a Diamond trick right away to provide a parking place for the Heart loser. Theoretically speaking, the odds of this succeeding are 50%, but in practice they are higher, many Easts (perhaps most) will fly with the A♦ (if they have it) at Trick Two. Our unscientific guess is that East’s propensity to play the Ace increases the Diamond odds from 50% to 60%. The benefit of Line B is that it gives Declarer two ways to make the contract (either Diamonds are guessed successfully, or trumps behave).
Here’s the arithmetic of Line B: - Diamonds are guessed (60%) and trumps behave (80%), which is a 48% chance of 11 tricks. - Diamonds are guessed (60%) and trumps misbehave (20%), which is a 12% chance of 10 tricks. - Diamonds not guessed (40%) and trumps behave (80%), which is 32% chance of 10 tricks. - Diamonds not guessed (40%) and trumps misbehave (20%), which is an 8% chance of 9 tricks.
So, which line is better? Playing matchpoints, surely Line A, the one which gets the maximum number of tricks 80% of the time, albeit at the increased risk of defeat. However, playing IMPs, where making the contract is all-important, we’d go with Line B, that’s the one which makes the contract 92% of the time.
Yes, we simplified the above percentages somewhat, there are other more obscure cases to be considered. But the analysis is close enough, and you don’t have to be a mathematician to realize that Line B gives you two chances to make the contract, whereas Line B gives you only one chance, but also better odds of making an overtrick.
Card Combination Footnote What’s the best way to play that trump suit for one loser? If trumps are 3-2 it really doesn’t matter, so the objective is to cater for as many of the 4-1 breaks as possible. The choices are: - Either, run the J♠, and if that is covered by West’s King, then finesse the Eight on the second round. - Or, lead low to Queen. Running the Jack is slightly superior, winning in 4 cases (when West has K962 or KT62 or KT96 or KT92). Leading low to the Queen succeeds in only 3 cases (when West has K962 or KT62 or the singleton King). >>BRIDGEOPEDIA: “Card Combinations”>>
North has a really muscular Weak Two bid, absolutely at the top of the range. 2NT asked for a feature, and soon 3NT was reached. On lead against 3NT, West will no doubt lead a Club and that hands Declarer a 10th trick. Anything but a Club and 9 tricks is the maximum.
Against 3♠ the defense is sure to score its 3 Aces, and, unless Declarer has X-ray vision, the singleton K♠ will be the 4th defensive trick.
West had no good bid the first time around, but when South balanced with that natural 2♦, West was finally able to get his Clubs into the auction. Playing in 3♣, there are just 3 losers, two in the trump suit plus the A♥.
Here’s what the auction meant: - 2♦ was Michaels, showing the majors. - 2♥ was a variation of “Unusual vs Unusual”, showing invitational (or better) values in Clubs (2♠ would have shown invitational or better in Diamonds). - South’s Double showed a Heart fit - East’s 3♣ said “My hand is only invitational”, and West would have been happy to pass that. - It seems likely that if South had not bid 3♥, then North would have done - East’s Double was speculative, but he does have a couple of Aces opposite an opening bid, so, with vulnerable opponents, it’s hard to resist.
In 2♥ doubled, Declarer will have to scramble as best she can to get out for down one. But that will still be -200 and a terrible result.
Some points from the auction: - 2♣ was artificial and strong, 2♦ was “waiting” - 3♠ was more encouraging than a direct 4♠. A common treatment for the direct 4♠ is that it denies as much as an Ace or a King, and probably not shortness somewhere either (due to the failure to make a splinter bid). Of course North doesn’t have any of those good things, but felt that 5-card support and a couple of doubletons must count for something. - 4♣ was a cue-bid - 4♠ denied the ability to make a return cue-bid. - 6♠ was optimistic!
Without a Heart lead, 6♠ is a good contract, requiring just one of the two minor suit finesses to work, a 76% chance. However, West has a natural Heart lead, after which Declarer needs both finesses to work (24%). Declarer only has two entries to the board, which is not enough to take a Diamond finesse, then later a ruffing Diamond finesse, and then to use the established Diamond to pitch a Heart. Consequently the Club finesse must be taken early in order to create extra entries to the board. Here’s how the play might go: Win the opening lead with the A♥ Cash the A♠ Cross to the J♠ Finesse the Q♣ Cash the A♣ Ruff a Club Finesse the Diamond Cash A♦ Ruff a Club Ruffing Diamond finesse, East covering Cross on a Spade Pitch the Heart loser on the established Diamond Do you see how Declarer might improve her chances? Yes, at Trick Four it would not hurt to run the Q♦, giving East the chance to go wrong. If East makes the mistake of covering, then now Declarer does have the entries to pitch the Heart loser on a Diamond before taking the Club finesse. If East avoids that trap, then at Trick Five, Declarer must revert to the Club finesse.
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