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Hand Analyses 19th December, 2007
South’s preemptive raise to 3♣ pushes E-W into a hopeless 3♠ contract, which is down one when the defense gets its Heart ruff. As luck would have it, the 4-4 Heart fit does a trick better, as there is no enemy ruff in that contract.
West did well to invite game, and East no doubt accepted with alacrity, his hand could hardly be any better. Against 4♥, a Diamond lead from KTxxx looks dangerous, and North might prefer a Spade opening lead. Now the best defense for South, after winning the Ace, is to shift to a Club, setting up a later Club ruff and holding Declarer to 10 tricks. But that won’t be at all obvious and, for all that South knows, it might be necessary for the defense to grab 3 Spades tricks immediately. And, if North does try that dangerous Diamond opening lead? That puts paid to the defensive ruff and Declarer will emerge with 11 tricks. So, we expect to see more 450’s than 420’s.
Auction Afterthought Perhaps East was tempted to do some upgrading to a 14-point 1NT based on those three Tens. That would not be unreasonable, and we’d say that East’s hand is closer to a 1NT opening than South’s miserable 15-count on Board 7. But that upgrade might work rather poorly here, as East will become the Declarer (after a transfer auction), putting South’s singleton Club on lead.
Against 3♠, East leads the A♦, and then will shift to a Heart or a trump. At this point it looks as if Declarer may escape with just 4 losers, but, in fact, there is no way to come to 9 tricks, the 4-1 break just makes the hand impossible to handle. So that will be -50 for N-S.
How do E-W fare in Clubs? There are various possible lines of play, but the bottom line is that, without the benefit of Hand Records, Declarer will take the percentage trump play, losing two Clubs, and will be unable to scrape up more than 9 tricks.
A bold balancing vulnerable 2♠ by South, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
Playing in 2♠ it will be 8 or 9 tricks. If the defense arranges for a Diamond ruff, it will be at the expense of a natural trump trick, and Declarer will scamper home with 9 tricks. The defense does better to play a forcing game: Defense cashes two Hearts Dummy ruffs the third Heart in Dummy A Diamond is won by East’s Ace Another Heart lead is ruffed with Dummy’s Jack The Q♠ is led from Dummy and wins the trick A Club to Declarer’s Jack The A♠ is cashed Now, the best that Declarer can do is to cash her minor suit winners and let East take his two trump tricks when he likes. That defense holds Declarer to 8 tricks.
However, will East sell out to 2♠? The usual criterion for bidding to the three-level in this situation is an extra trump or some extra distribution. East does have a singleton in the enemy suit and might be persuaded to bid one more. This could work out rather well, as it is likely to escape undoubled and should go down just one, beating those E-W pairs that sold out to 2♠. But down one in 3♥ requires careful play. South leads a Diamond won by Declarer’s Ace, at which point Declarer must play on Clubs. After that, the defense can score two Clubs and a Club ruff, along with two Spades … that’s 5 tricks but that’s all they can get. Did any Spade Declarers draw trumps before playing on Clubs? If so, they probably went down two, provided that North was canny enough to win the third round of Clubs and not the first or second round, thereby cutting off Dummy from the good Clubs.
How does North do playing in Diamonds? Let’s say that E-W start out with 3 Hearts, Declarer ruffing the third round. How should Declarer play the trump suit? East, as Opener, is more likely to have the A♦ so the correct play is to lead towards the board, in case that Ace is singleton. When that is indeed the case, the trumps are picked up for one loser, and with the Spade finesse also winning it’s an easy 10 tricks.
As on Board 2, we have a 14-point hand that’s worth consideration for upgrading to a 15-17 1NT opening. This one falls a tad short, we think, but nothing that the 9♣ wouldn’t fix. As it was, the auction went the New Minor Forcing route to 3NT.
South leads the Spade Five, which has all the appearance of being from a 4-card suit. North wins the A♠, and returns the Ten. It may appear at first sight that those top 9 tricks are all that Declarer can take, he doesn’t have the timing to set up additional minor suit winners. Not so! Suppose that Declarer wins the K♠ at Trick Two, cashes the A♥ and J♥ (unblocking the suit in case it splits 5-1) and exits a Spade! South cashes her last Spade, then Dummy wins the red suit return, and runs the Hearts. North is squeezed on the last Heart, and must unguard one of the minor suits. Making 10 tricks.
Does South do better not to cash the 4th Spade? Let’s say that, in an attempt to spoil the squeeze, she returns a Diamond after winning the 3rd Spade. Nice try, but to no avail, here is the position with one Heart still to be played: North ♠ 8 ♥ ♦ KJ ♣ Q54 Dummy East ♠ ♠ ♥ 9 ♥ ♦ AT ♦ Q54 ♣ K92 ♣ AT7 South ♠ J ♥ ♦ 763 ♣ J8 North cannot pitch a Club or a Diamond so she must let her Spade go. Now a Diamond is led towards Declarer’s Queen for the 10th trick.
In 1NT, much will depend upon North’s opening lead: - If North leads a Club it should be a low one. That will be won by South’s Ten, the Q♣ will be cashed, and the J♥ returned. This beginning gets the defense no fewer than 8 tricks (4 Clubs, 3 Hearts and the A♦), and +200. - If North leads a Heart, Declarer will duck a couple of rounds, win the A♥, and knock out the A♦. Now it is impossible for the defense to untangle all of its tricks. When South wins the A♦, the best that N-S can do is to cash their last Heart and then just three Clubs for down one. And it may not even be obvious to cash the Clubs, in which case Declarer will scamper home with an overtrick.
DONT Footnote Assuming that the N-S pair is playing DONT, both of the N-S players had the chance to chirp in with a 4-4 “two-suiter”. North should certainly refrain from the temptation, with such a modest hand that would be altogether too risky in the direct seat. But, after East has passed, we can see quite a few non-vulnerable Souths taking the plunge with a 2♥ bid, showing the majors. 2♥ works well for 8 tricks and +110. But just how good a matchpoint score this turns out to be will depend on how many Norths found that opening lead of a low Club against 1NT.
3NT is a poor contract requiring considerable luck if it is to succeed. Which of the N-S pair was the overbidder? Not North, we’d say she was good value for 3NT, that’s a pretty decent 9-count with its 5-card suit and useful fillers. The culprit is South, what an appalling 15-count she has, so much so that it would surely be better to open this 1♦, planning to rebid 1NT, showing 12-14. The three strikes against South opening 1NT are the square distribution, almost complete absence of fillers, and the fact that nearly half of the points are in Queens and Jacks. It may add up to 15 but it certainly doesn’t look like 15, does it?
Notwithstanding the above, most pairs will get to 3NT and some will even make it. West will lead the T♠ at which point Declarer is up to 7 tricks. Declarer dares not duck this trick for fear of a Club shift, so she wins, after which her only real hope is to lead through the defender who has the A♥, placing that defender in a dilemma: - If the defender jumps up with the Ace that establishes two Heart tricks for Declarer - If the defender with the Ace plays low on the first round of Hearts, then Declarer gets only one Heart but gains a tempo, which she can use to try for a Club trick. So, which defender should Declarer play for the A♥? There are not any useful clues that we can see, but some like to play for “split Aces”, and, as the A♣ must be with West for the contract to succeed, they will play East for the A♥ and lead the first round of Hearts from the board. Bingo! That will be 9 tricks.
However, before playing on Hearts, it wouldn’t harm to cash all those Diamonds, forcing three discards from each defender. If they fail to discard well it’s conceivable that 9 tricks may materialize even when the cards are less favorably placed (especially if Hearts are pitched).
Here’s another dicey 3NT contract. After that auction what would you lead from the East hand? It’s an unappetizing set of options, let’s say that East leads his Heart, the unbid suit, won by Declarer. At least one Diamond will be needed to make this contract, so Declarer plays the K♦ won by West’s Ace. A Heart comes back and now Declarer has two obvious routes to 9 tricks: - Either, 4 Hearts, 2 Clubs and 3 Diamonds (the suit must break 4-4) - Or, 4 Hearts, 3 Clubs (will need the right guess) and 2 Diamonds. Declarer can get the best of both worlds by playing on Diamonds first. Having lost to the A♦, she cashes the Q♦, loses the T♦ to the Jack, and wins the Heart return. Now, the 9♦ is cashed, and if the suit breaks that’s 9 tricks with the Club finesse.
However, let’s say that West is not so obliging! He may refuse to win the J♦ on the third round. Now, if Declarer guesses to persist with Diamonds she may find herself with 3 Diamond losers and two Spade losers (she doesn’t know that the suit is blocked). That would be good play by West, giving Declarer a decision as to whether she should try for 4-4 Diamonds or guess the Club situation. But not such good play by Declarer, who can avoid this dilemma by playing the T♦ (not the Queen) on the second round of the suit, and, if West cleverly ducks that, then the 9♦ on the third round. The key for Declarer is to have a winner to play on the fourth round of Diamonds, that way she can test the Diamonds as an alternative to the risky Club finesse. And, yes, West could devilishly duck the A♦, retaining control in Diamonds and making sure that it is the defense that will win that fourth round. That would be really tough defense!
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