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Hand Analyses 5th December, 2007
We are all in favor of overcalling with extra-strong hands, but the West hand is altogether too strong and he must double first. When 2♠ comes back to West he has a choice between 2NT or 3♦ or an optimistic 3NT. Not an easy decision, please see the Bidding Quiz.
If West declares 2NT or 3NT, a Spade lead will hold him to 8 tricks when the Spades get established before Declarer’s Diamonds. If West declares in 3♦ he will rustle up 10 tricks, losing just a Spade and two Diamonds.
West makes a light third-seat opening and again, this time with North, we have a hand that is too strong to overcall and which must double first. When 3♠ gets back to North, consider these two methods of continuing: - North might bid 4♥ - North might double one more time, and then, when South bids 4♦, North bids 4♥. For the actual North hand the second route to 4♥ is preferable. Bidding 4♥ directly (instead of doubling first) would show more Hearts (at least six of them).
4♥ makes an easy 11 tricks, the defense scoring just their two Aces.
Should West have considered taking a sacrifice in 4♠? It’s tempting in light of the vulnerability, but the N-S auction was not particularly convincing, they may well be in a 5-2 fit, and West does have some defense. On the actual hand, the sacrifice is a success if Declarer plays the Spades right, which we would say he should … he’ll play the K♠ first (expecting any Spade shortness to be with North), and when the Jack appears, he’ll finesse on the second round as indicated by the Principle of Restricted Choice.
N-S perpetrated an Exclusion Key Card auction, that 5♣ bid was asking for Partner’s Key Cards, but also asking that the A♣ be excluded from the response. Then 5♠ said “I have two Key Cards (excluding Clubs) and no Q♥” Exclusion Key Card is a dangerous weapon to use here, and, though it might seem obvious that 5♣ cannot be natural in this auction, partners have been known to see things differently. When North denied the Q♥, South could hardly bid 7♥, and was also poorly placed to decide whether the better-scoring 6NT might not be a better-scoring alternative.
As it happens, 6NT is indeed preferable, and in fact both make 13 tricks when the Hearts behave. We don’t especially fault South’s precipitous Exclusion bid, it was certainly the practical route to finding the Heart grand slam (if there was one), but, as the auction went, it was not the best way to get to 6NT instead of 6♥. Perhaps with all those Diamond tricks South could have gambled 6NT anyway.
Against 2♠, South leads the A♦, and, seeking to prevent the Diamond ruff in Dummy, might mistakenly shift to the T♠. Not good! Declarer wins that, takes the Heart finesse, cashes the A♥ (pitching a Club), ruffs a Heart (felling South’s King), plays K♠ and out a Spade, and now has 9 tricks (4 trumps, 4 Hearts, and a Club).
The defense does better to shift to a Club at Trick Two, knocking out Dummy’s entry and preventing the run of the Hearts. Here’s how the defense might go: A♦ is cashed Club shift, ducked by Dummy, won by North Club continuation, won by Dummy’s Ace Diamond won by North’s Queen Clubs are continued, ruffed by Declarer Heart finesse A♥ is cashed (Declarer pitching a Diamond) Heart ruff At this point Declarer and Dummy have come down to these cards: Dummy Declarer ♠ J6 ♠ AK7 ♥ JT ♥ ♦ ♦ J9 ♣ 6 ♣ With 5 tricks in the bag, one route to making 2♠ would be to lead a Diamond, hoping that the Q♠ is with South so that North cannot overruff the Jack. That’s a 50% chance, but why not take the 100% play? The play in the side-suits has been most revealing and all the indication are that trumps are 3-3 and that the remaining position is: North ♠ ??? ♥ 7 ♦ ♣ Q Dummy Declarer ♠ J6 ♠ AK7 ♥ JT ♥ ♦ ♦ J9 ♣ 6 ♣ East ♠ ??? ♥ ♦ KT ♣ So, all that Declarer has to do now is to cash AK♠ and exit a Spade. Whichever defender happens to have the Q♠ will be forced to concede a trick in the end-game. Making 8 tricks.
A difficult hand for E-W to bid, both players have borderline hands, and it’s easy to see how they might get to either part-score or game in either Hearts or No Trump.
Playing in 4♥, West may have gulped slightly at the sight of Dummy, no doubt secretly praying for down only one or two. North leads the K♠, and Declarer ducks this trick, it’s his best chance at retaining control. Let’s say that North shifts to a trump and the Jack mercifully wins that trick. Now A♥ and K♥ and when the suit breaks there is a glimmer of hope for Declarer. Next comes a Club to the Ace, South playing the King! Suddenly, West’s terrible 4♥contract is making an overtrick! Not bad, and, of course, on a double dummy basis, West could have done even better by winning the opening Spade lead (risky play if the Hearts don’t behave)
If West ends up declaring a No Trump contract, that same most fortunate lie of the cards will result in 11 tricks.
Let’s say that East leads the Spade Two. What next? It seems likely that this is a 4th best lead, in which case Declarer might as well win the Q♠ immediately and run the Q♦. East wins and perseveres with Spades, then Declarer leads towards the Q♥. When the K♥ is onside and the Clubs are 3-3, Declarer has 11 tricks.
Smooth Duck Department Next, let’s suppose that East is a tricky character who has read in previous Wednesday Games about how a well-timed smooth duck can be beneficial to the defense. As above, Dummy’s Q♠ wins the opening lead, and then the Q♦ is played, but this time East ducks! In real life this duck will probably not affect the outcome of the play … Declarer will repeat the Diamond finesse, this time losing, and the same 11 tricks will emerge. But imagine an East hand with one more Diamond and one less Heart. Now, East’s duck can conjure up an extra trick for the defense. Declarer repeats the Diamond finesse which loses, and a Diamond comes back, establishing a third trick for the defense (East cashes the 13th Diamond when in with the K♥).
System Note That 2NT rebid will be too strong for those that play a 22-23 range in this situation. The standard solution in that case would be to rebid 3NT, which is not very satisfactory, as it gives up on a 4-4 Spade fit or a 5-3 Heart fit. There is a better method for bidding very strong balanced hands, it’s called Kokish, please follow the link. Not recommended for the casual partnership, though.
Against 3NT, North will lead a Diamond, no doubt. The normal lead from that holding is the Ten, after which Declarer will close his eyes and play the King. When that holds he is home free and it’s just a matter of overtricks. Correct play is to cash two top Clubs first, then, when that suit is 3-2, he cashes Dummy’s three top Hearts, crosses to hand with a Club, cashes the 13th Heart, and returns to Dummy with a 4th round of Clubs. Declarer has the first 9 tricks, and will have 3 ways to proceed in the end-game: - Play safe by taking the A♠ and conceding the last 3 tricks. - Take the Spade finesse. If it works that will be 11 tricks (maybe more if the defense pitches too many Spades). If it loses, it will probably be just 10 tricks, unless the defense can take 3 Diamond tricks as well as the K♠. - Throw in North with a Diamond, hoping that North is forced to lead a Spade. A fine idea if North is forced to win the Diamond and also has the K♠. The finesse seems most likely to make extra tricks and, on the actual hand, might even make all 13 if both defenders pitch a Spade.
South’s 2♠ Michaels bid can best be described as frisky (others would say pointless, see Bidding Quiz), and West’s 3♥ showed invitational values with Spade support (a slight stretch, but what else?). East naturally enough took it to game, and 4♠ is a reasonable enough contract.
Against 4♠, South leads a low Heart, ducked in Dummy, and won by North. Now what? Please see Play Problem 209.
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