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Hand Analyses 5th December, 2007
We are all in favor of overcalling with extra-strong hands, but the West hand is altogether too strong and he must double first. When 2♠ comes back to West he has a choice between 2NT or 3♦ or an optimistic 3NT. Not an easy decision, please see the Bidding Quiz.
If West declares 2NT or 3NT, a Spade lead will hold him to 8 tricks when the Spades get established before Declarer’s Diamonds. If West declares in 3♦ he will rustle up 10 tricks, losing just a Spade and two Diamonds.
West makes a light third-seat opening and again, this time with North, we have a hand that is too strong to overcall and which must double first. When 3♠ gets back to North, consider these two methods of continuing: - North might bid 4♥ - North might double one more time, and then, when South bids 4♦, North bids 4♥. For the actual North hand the second route to 4♥ is preferable. Bidding 4♥ directly (instead of doubling first) would show more Hearts (at least six of them).
4♥ makes an easy 11 tricks, the defense scoring just their two Aces.
Should West have considered taking a sacrifice in 4♠? It’s tempting in light of the vulnerability, but the N-S auction was not particularly convincing, they may well be in a 5-2 fit, and West does have some defense. On the actual hand, the sacrifice is a success if Declarer plays the Spades right, which we would say he should … he’ll play the K♠ first (expecting any Spade shortness to be with North), and when the Jack appears, he’ll finesse on the second round as indicated by the Principle of Restricted Choice.
N-S perpetrated an Exclusion Key Card auction, that 5♣ bid was asking for Partner’s Key Cards, but also asking that the A♣ be excluded from the response. Then 5♠ said “I have two Key Cards (excluding Clubs) and no Q♥” Exclusion Key Card is a dangerous weapon to use here, and, though it might seem obvious that 5♣ cannot be natural in this auction, partners have been known to see things differently. When North denied the Q♥, South could hardly bid 7♥, and was also poorly placed to decide whether the better-scoring 6NT might not be a better-scoring alternative.
As it happens, 6NT is indeed preferable, and in fact both make 13 tricks when the Hearts behave. We don’t especially fault South’s precipitous Exclusion bid, it was certainly the practical route to finding the Heart grand slam (if there was one), but, as the auction went, it was not the best way to get to 6NT instead of 6♥. Perhaps with all those Diamond tricks South could have gambled 6NT anyway.
Against 2♠, South leads the A♦, and, seeking to prevent the Diamond ruff in Dummy, might mistakenly shift to the T♠. Not good! Declarer wins that, takes the Heart finesse, cashes the A♥ (pitching a Club), ruffs a Heart (felling South’s King), plays K♠ and out a Spade, and now has 9 tricks (4 trumps, 4 Hearts, and a Club).
The defense does better to shift to a Club at Trick Two, knocking out Dummy’s entry and preventing the run of the Hearts. Here’s how the defense might go: A♦ is cashed Club shift, ducked by Dummy, won by North Club continuation, won by Dummy’s Ace Diamond won by North’s Queen Clubs are continued, ruffed by Declarer Heart finesse A♥ is cashed (Declarer pitching a Diamond) Heart ruff At this point Declarer and Dummy have come down to these cards: Dummy Declarer ♠ J6 ♠ AK7 ♥ JT ♥ ♦ ♦ J9 ♣ 6 ♣ With 5 tricks in the bag, one route to making 2♠ would be to lead a Diamond, hoping that the Q♠ is with South so that North cannot overruff the Jack. That’s a 50% chance, but why not take the 100% play? The play in the side-suits has been most revealing and all the indication are that trumps are 3-3 and that the remaining position is: North ♠ ??? ♥ 7 ♦ ♣ Q Dummy Declarer ♠ J6 ♠ AK7 ♥ JT ♥ ♦ ♦ J9 ♣ 6 ♣ East ♠ ??? ♥ ♦ KT ♣ So, all that Declarer has to do now is to cash AK♠ and exit a Spade. Whichever defender happens to have the Q♠ will be forced to concede a trick in the end-game. Making 8 tricks.
A difficult hand for E-W to bid, both players have borderline hands, and it’s easy to see how they might get to either part-score or game in either Hearts or No Trump.
Playing in 4♥, West may have gulped slightly at the sight of Dummy, no doubt secretly praying for down only one or two. North leads the K♠, and Declarer ducks this trick, it’s his best chance at retaining control. Let’s say that North shifts to a trump and the Jack mercifully wins that trick. Now A♥ and K♥ and when the suit breaks there is a glimmer of hope for Declarer. Next comes a Club to the Ace, South playing the King! Suddenly, West’s terrible 4♥contract is making an overtrick! Not bad, and, of course, on a double dummy basis, West could have done even better by winning the opening Spade lead (risky play if the Hearts don’t behave)
If West ends up declaring a No Trump contract, that same most fortunate lie of the cards will result in 11 tricks.
Let’s say that East leads the Spade Two. What next? It seems likely that this is a 4th best lead, in which case Declarer might as well win the Q♠ immediately and run the Q♦. East wins and perseveres with Spades, then Declarer leads towards the Q♥. When the K♥ is onside and the Clubs are 3-3, Declarer has 11 tricks.
Smooth Duck Department Next, let’s suppose that East is a tricky character who has read in previous Wednesday Games about how a well-timed smooth duck can be beneficial to the defense. As above, Dummy’s Q♠ wins the opening lead, and then the Q♦ is played, but this time East ducks! In real life this duck will probably not affect the outcome of the play … Declarer will repeat the Diamond finesse, this time losing, and the same 11 tricks will emerge. But imagine an East hand with one more Diamond and one less Heart. Now, East’s duck can conjure up an extra trick for the defense. Declarer repeats the Diamond finesse which loses, and a Diamond comes back, establishing a third trick for the defense (East cashes the 13th Diamond when in with the K♥).
System Note That 2NT rebid will be too strong for those that play a 22-23 range in this situation. The standard solution in that case would be to rebid 3NT, which is not very satisfactory, as it gives up on a 4-4 Spade fit or a 5-3 Heart fit. There is a better method for bidding very strong balanced hands, it’s called Kokish, please follow the link. Not recommended for the casual partnership, though.
Against 3NT, North will lead a Diamond, no doubt. The normal lead from that holding is the Ten, after which Declarer will close his eyes and play the King. When that holds he is home free and it’s just a matter of overtricks. Correct play is to cash two top Clubs first, then, when that suit is 3-2, he cashes Dummy’s three top Hearts, crosses to hand with a Club, cashes the 13th Heart, and returns to Dummy with a 4th round of Clubs. Declarer has the first 9 tricks, and will have 3 ways to proceed in the end-game: - Play safe by taking the A♠ and conceding the last 3 tricks. - Take the Spade finesse. If it works that will be 11 tricks (maybe more if the defense pitches too many Spades). If it loses, it will probably be just 10 tricks, unless the defense can take 3 Diamond tricks as well as the K♠. - Throw in North with a Diamond, hoping that North is forced to lead a Spade. A fine idea if North is forced to win the Diamond and also has the K♠. The finesse seems most likely to make extra tricks and, on the actual hand, might even make all 13 if both defenders pitch a Spade.
South’s 2♠ Michaels bid can best be described as frisky (others would say pointless, see Bidding Quiz), and West’s 3♥ showed invitational values with Spade support (a slight stretch, but what else?). East naturally enough took it to game, and 4♠ is a reasonable enough contract.
Against 4♠, South leads a low Heart, ducked in Dummy, and won by North. Now what? Please see Play Problem 209.
It’s easy to see N-S getting dangerously high on this board, eventually coming to rest in 5♠ when it transpires that one Key Card and the Q♠ are missing. However, it’s a very friendly hand and the poor slam makes when the KQ♠ are in front of Declarer’s AJ.
Fiendish Lead Department The N-S auction was quite informative, placing North with the A♥ and South (or West) with the A♦. In that case, there’s not much point in East leading his singleton Heart and hoping for a ruff. So, why not try the truly fiendish 9♦ or J♦? Surely Declarer will play Dummy’s Ace, then cash some Hearts hoping for a fast Diamond pitch before playing on trumps. East ruffs the second Heart, cashes the K♦, and a contract which seemed destined to make 12 tricks now makes only 10. Down one!
A scrappy auction! North could have passed 1♥ and waited for a reopening Double from Partner, but it doesn’t always work that way, the opponents usually get in the way somehow, and North will be left with no way to show some values later in the auction. So, North bids 1NT, showing 6-10 and something in Hearts.
East might have bid 2♠ over 1NT, but being vulnerable was a deterrent. Also, this auction comes with a storm advisory because, even if West has a Spade fit, East has a host of Diamond losers to look after, and North will be in the overruffing position. All the signs are that this hand will play rather poorly for E-W.
After South’s 3♣, North had an unpleasant set of choices. Play in the 4-2 Clubs or the 6-1 Diamonds? 6-1 is generally better, but when 3♦ got doubled, North took a shot at 3♥, doubled of course.
Against 3♥ doubled, a trump lead is the killer, but, alas for the defense, East has none. Here’s how Declarer might make no fewer than 10 tricks: Spade to the Queen and Declarer’s Ace J♠ covered by the King and ruffed K♣ won by East’s Ace Diamond won by Dummy’s Ace Clubs are cashed Now, West can score just the AK♥ to go with East’s A♣. That’s +990 for N-S! The defense can do a trick better if East avoids the Spade lead (or else leads the K♠!).
We’d expect every E-W pair to reach 4♠. How many tricks will they make? That rather depends upon North, for more on which please see Play Problem 210.
West leads a low Spade against 3NT. Declarer can be sure of 10 tricks just by playing on Diamonds, and she has a reasonable shot at 11 tricks if East holds the A♦. The Spade lead is won in Dummy, and a Diamond played. If East holds the A♦ he must duck and let Declarer’s King win. Now back to Dummy with a Heart, and the 9♣ is led from the board. If East has one or both of the missing Club honors 11 tricks will roll in (if the Club honors are split then Declarer will also need 4-2 or 3-3 Hearts). Anyway, all that becomes hypothetical when West shows up with the A♦ and 10 tricks is the limit.
East doesn’t have much of a hand but was reluctant to let the opponents play it at the one-level. He might have doubled, but chose 2♦ instead, we’d say that it was a close choice.
Against 2♥, if West leads a Diamond, Declarer has an easy route to 9 tricks. The lead has allowed her to pick up both minor suits and she ends up losing just 3 Hearts and a Spade.
However, West may happily hit upon a Spade opening lead, reasoning that he doesn’t need any Diamond ruffs (they would only be at the expense of natural trump tricks), and that if East has a Spade honor it might be possible to get a forcing defense going. In that case here’s a fascinating line of play: Spade lead won by Declarer’s Ace Spade won by West’s Jack Spade ruffed by Declarer Low trump won by West’s Jack Spade ruffed by Declarer Heart Ten (!!) won by West Now West is end-played! He cannot lead a trump without sacrificing a trick, and a minor suit lead will allow Declarer to pick up both minors.
Does that line of play look somewhat far-fetched? It’s certainly easier to find with all four hands on display but we’d like to think that there is at least a tiny bit of real-life logic involved. Check out these two plays: - On the first round of trumps, leading a low trump towards Dummy. Imagine West’s dilemma. Does Declarer have AT8764 (in which case West must play high to avoid blowing a trick)? Or does Declarer have A876543 (in which case West must play low to avoid blowing a trick)? - OK, let’s give credit to Declarer for making West guess, but let’s assume that West gets it right. Now consider the fiendish second round of Hearts where Declarer plays the Ten. Now West’s dilemma is whether Declarer started with AT7643 or AT87643 (he must win the trick) or T87643 (he must duck). Also, winning the opening Spade lead and exiting a Spade was a good idea, Declarer would love the defense to break open one of the minor suits.
West’s 2♦ showed the majors, North’s 2♠ showed (by partnership agreement) a good Diamond raise, after which N-S marched inexorably to the doomed 5♦ contract.
West leads a low Spade to East’s Ace, and Declarer does the best she can by playing the Queen, trying hard to look like someone who also has the King. East might, in a moment of temporary insanity, be fooled into wondering if a Heart shift is required, setting up a trick for West’s presumed King before the Clubs can be established. That would be poor thinking. What’s the clue? Well, if South really had KQ doubleton of Spades, then West’s lead of a low card would be from 98532. Surely, if that were West’s holding, and if he felt that a Spade lead were required, then, considering that the suit has been bid and raised, he would lead the Nine. So, recovering his wits in the nick of time, East continues Spades and it’s down one.
With that outside King, South’s preempt was not ideal, but reasonable nonetheless. 3♦ keeps the opponents quiet and it’s 9 easy tricks.
If South makes a feeble opening Pass, West may well open 1♣ (many wouldn’t), after which one shudders to think how high East might compete. Surely to at least 4♣, which will be down two. It’s unlikely to be doubled but that’s still -200 and a bad board for N-S.
A sad hand for N-S. Against 3NT, East leads a Diamond to West’s Ace and the suit is returned. Now the normal play in Clubs is to finesse against the King but that loses and the defense has 6 tricks. A 5♣ contract fares only slightly better, again the singleton K♣ will score a trick and the defense gets 3 tricks for down only one.
On lead against 4♥, South will start out with a Diamond, and surely the correct lead is the King, giving South a look at Dummy, and retaining the lead in case there is a deadly shift to be made from the South hand at Trick Two. With a Diamond singleton in Dummy, the more or less standard agreement is for North to give suit preference on the first trick. Accordingly, North plays the Q♦, a card which surely says “I have the K♠”. That may induce South to shift to a Spade, but careful play still brings in 11 tricks for Declarer: K♦ opening lead Spade shift, won by Dummy’s Ace Three rounds of Clubs, pitching a Spade Q♠ led from the board Of course, Declarer is planning a ruffing finesse in Spades if North declines to play the King.
Perhaps North telegraphed Declarer the right line of play with that violent signal on Trick One, but even without that help Declarer should place the K♠ with North from the bidding, and find the same line of play regardless.
Occasions for using Exclusion Key Card Blackwood are few and far between, but here we have this rare bird’s second sighting of the set (see also Board 3). If West held the K♠, then East was prepared to commit to the grand slam regardless of whether West also held the A♥, figuring that any Diamond losers would go on the long Clubs. As it happened, the K♠ was missing, and the final result was 6♠ making 7 when the K♠ was onside.
System Note 1 Exclusion Key Card is a somewhat accident-prone convention and was once voted “Least Popular Convention” by a panel of experts for that very reason. Just to make it even more perilous, some partnerships play 1430 opposite regular Roman Key Card, but revert to 3014 opposite Exclusion Key Card. This is no doubt theoretically superior, but it’s also a highly dangerous treatment, a fact to which your editors can attest from personal experience.
System Note 2 What would a rebid by East (after 1♣ 1♠) of 3♥ mean? 2♥ would be a strength-showing reverse, of course, and many partnerships play the jump to 3♥ as a Splinter in support of Spades. There’s no need to play this splinter as game-forcing, it could be made on a hand with no more than the values for a 3♠ rebid.
A simple auction to 4♠, a contract which unluckily goes down after East’s opening lead of a Diamond. West wins the Ace and returns the T♦ for Partner to ruff. Back comes a Heart to West’s Ace, and a second Diamond ruff, and that is down one.
Carding Note Yes, when West returned the Diamond to be ruffed, he returned the Ten, a clear suit preference signal for the higher-ranking of the two remaining side-suits (Clubs and Hearts). All things considered, surely it’s obvious that a Heart will come back, so why bother? First of all it’s good practice for the future occasions when it will be less obvious. But, also, put yourself in East’s seat when West returns a lazy low Diamond. Won’t he be entitled to think that West wants a Club ruff?
East’s 2♦ was an Inverted Raise, showing 4+ Diamonds, no 4-card major, and at least invitational values. West’s 2♥ showed something in Hearts and some extras and enough for game in this partnership’s methods. 2NT was natural without extras, then a couple of cue-bids before West took a shot at 6♦.
6♦ always makes 12 tricks and a canny Declarer might eke out 13 by giving South the maximum amount of guesswork. North leads a Spade and this is how Declarer puts South to the test: Spade won by Declarer’s Ace A♦ then a Diamond to Dummy’s Queen Diamond ruff K♦ is cashed and then a Diamond to Dummy’s Jack The last Diamond is cashed The K♠ is cashed The K♠ is the 8th trick and South must come down to 5 cards. She needs to hold on to 4 Clubs and bare the K♥. Will it be obvious? It should be. If Declarer has the Q♥ he would have already finessed the Heart for the 13th trick and if North has the Q♥ then the K♥ can safely be pitched. It sounds easy enough, but some defenders will lazily pitch a Club anyway, not realizing the importance of that 4th Club. Declarer did well to avoid cashing any Clubs until the very end, preventing North from giving count signals in the suit. Having said that, North should pitch the Two, Seven, Six of Clubs (in that order) on the Diamonds, surely showing just three cards in the suit.
This is an auction which usually calls for a major suit lead. Then again, that Diamond suit is much stronger. Dr Goodlead was uncharacteristically decisive on this one. “At IMP’s I lead a low Diamond, best chance to beat the contract. At matchpoints I lead the 9♥, less likely to blow a trick” So there you have it. - If South leads the 9♥, the defense gets its 4 tricks before Declarer can set up more than 9. - If South leads a Diamond (Queen or low), Declarer has the timing for more. Now, when South is in with her Club trick she must shift to a Heart just to hold Declarer to 10 tricks. If South fails to do this, it will be 11 tricks and a terrible board for N-S.
As vulnerable 2♥ bids go, that one might be considered to be living on the edge. But at least the suit is decent. West’s 2♠ was forcing for one round, and soon 4♥ was reached. One of the pleasures of bidding on the edge is that one often arrives in adventurous contracts. Many pairs play that West’s 2♠ would be constructive but not forcing. If that were the case then there’s no reason for West to mess around, he should just bid 4♥ directly.
We hesitate even to guess at what might happen if East does not open 2♥. We doubt that E-W will get to game, they are more likely to play it in a part-score, probably 3♠ making 9 tricks. And, if N-S get enamored of their 10-card Club fit and compete to the 4-level, N-S must remember to double if they expect any matchpoints.
How about the play in 4♥? South leads the Q♦. There’s nothing to be gained by ducking the first trick but there is a good reason to play the Ace. North clearly has the K♦ and, looking at the Spade suit in Dummy, she may be tempted to unblock that King, in case Partner has ♦QJT and Declarer has ♠Qx. Let’s say that North has avoids the unblocking trap and plays low. Now what? It won’t be possible for Declarer to establish the Spades and enjoy them, there just aren’t enough entries back and forth. So, to make this contract, it will be necessary to get a Club ruff on the board and also to guess the Spade situation. Given that awkward entry situation, the obvious and straightforward line is to cash the A♣ at Trick Two, finesse the T♥, ruff a Club with the A♥, and eventually get back to hand with a Diamond ruff in order to draw trumps and guess the Spade suit.
Playing a 2/1 system, East did not consider his hand quite worth a game-forcing 2♣ bid, so he contented himself with a bid of 1♥. However, when the Heart fit was uncovered his hand got a lot better and he was happy jumping to game.
Against 4♥, South leads a Spade won by Dummy’s Ace. Now a low Heart to the Queen and Ace. South continues Spades which Declarer ruffs, trumps are drawn and the Clubs take the trick total up to 11.
That was not an unreasonable defense but it certainly made life easy for Declarer. It’s a sterner test if South finds the double dummy shift of a Club after winning the A♥. Now, if Declarer ruffs a Spade (his 11th trick), he cannot draw trumps without cutting himself off from the Club suit, because of that 4-1 trump break.
Well, if the defense can be double dummy then so can Declarer. South shifts to the Club (after winning the A♥), but Declarer wins in his hand and leads a Diamond. South wins the Ace, and now Declarer scores 11 tricks on a cross-ruff. He reaches 11 with a Spade, two Diamonds, two Clubs, and three ruffs in each hand. The Club ruffs will all need to be made with high trumps, so at Trick Two, when trumps are led, it will have to be a low one from the board.
South’s 2♦ was “waiting”, those Hearts being unbiddable at this point because both the hand and the suit are too weak. Over 2♠, South sensibly chose to support Spades rather than introduce her mangy Hearts. The actual choice of 3♠ is stronger than a direct 4♠ bid. A good choice, we think, South may have only 2 points but that Diamond shortness could be worth a couple of tricks, that makes the hand too good for a mere 4♠ bid.
How about North’s bidding in this auction? Would you cue-bid over 3♠? Not a good idea, in our opinion. North may well have 23 HCP’s but, in terms of playing strength, her hand is quite minimum, with 4 losers no less. If South’s hand is good enough to cover three of them, then it is South that needs to be making the slam move.
Against 4♠, East might well lead a trump, after which Declarer takes her two Diamond ruffs in Dummy on the way to scrambling 10 tricks.
West might have tried for a 5-3 Heart fit via a New Minor Forcing sequence but reasonably decided that, with the extra points and playing strength, No Trump might well garner the same number of tricks as a 5-3 Heart fit.
If East plays in 3NT, South might well lead a Spade, which will be won by North’s King. Now, with Hearts breaking, there are 11 top tricks and the 12th comes in when the Clubs also break, making the Diamond finesse unnecessary.
If West plays in 4♥, North won’t be leading a Spade, a trump is more likely. This does not stop Declarer from scoring a Spade ruff on the board, and again it is 12 tricks.
3♠ can be beaten, but it requires good defense. South leads the J♥, and the defense continues the suit. On the third round of Hearts, Declarer must ruff high and South pitches a Club. Next comes the Q♠, which South ducks. North wins the trick with the K♠ and now leads a fourth round of trumps to gain a trump promotion for South’s lowly Spade Eight. Down one!
That was nicely done by N-S who had to do quite a few good things to earn their plus score: - North bid 2♥ (rather than Michaels) to get a Heart lead - North balanced with 3♣ to get E-W to the 3-level - South did not overruff the 3rd round of Hearts - South was sure to duck the first round of Spades (if she grabs her Ace then Declarer might play an inspired low Spade on the second round of trumps) - South also did not overruff the 4th round of Hearts The most instructive point in all of the above is the importance of South refraining from overruffing.
Against 4♥, North might try a trump lead for want of better. But is that really such a good idea? The Spades in Dummy are a threat, one can visualize Declarer’s minor suit losers disappearing on them. Dr Goodlead was right on top of this one, and once again he gave us the old IMPs/matchpoint routine. “Prospects don’t look so good here. Trumps are breaking and our JT doubleton of Spades will not help our cause. I’d guess that the K♦ is more likely to be on my left (most of Declarer’s strength appears to be in Hearts). Playing in a team game I would lead a low Diamond, it looks like our best chance” “Really?” “Yes, really!” Wow, that was pretty impressive, and will surely beat the contract by one trick.
And the Doctor’s lead against 4♥ playing matchpoints? “Now the low Diamond lead is less compelling, I suppose I’d lead the A♦ or a Club, it’s not obvious which” That’s fine too, we suspect that N-S will get a decent matchpoint score if they find the opening Club lead or else the A♦ lead followed by a Club shift. Both defenses hold Declarer to 10 tricks.
Most players would respond 1♦ with the East hand, it’s hard to argue with that call, but we admit that we have a hankering for 1NT if only for its preemptive value. 1NT makes it harder for the (vulnerable) opponents to get their major(s) into the auction. Take your pick. Either way, E-W will arrive in 3NT, though East’s choice of response will determine whether it is played from the East or the West side.
How many tricks can be made in 3NT? That’s not clear-cut, much will depend on the play in the Diamond suit. At some point in the play, the Q♦ will be led and North will have to decide whether or not to cover. But we are looking at two different situations here, depending on which Diamond holding is in the Dummy:
Case 1: East is Dummy, holding ♦A9864. Declarer leads the Q♦. Should North cover? On the actual hand North does best not to cover. Now, Declarer has a guess on the second round of the suit, whether to lead the Queen (squashing South’s Ten) or whether to lead a low Diamond (playing North for King doubleton). Is it always right not to cover? Barring bizarre Declarer play, we think so. If North does manage to duck the Q♦ then good luck to Declarer in guessing this one right, it won’t be obvious.
Case 2: West is Dummy, holding ♦ QJ5. In this case, it’s Dummy that leads the Queen, and here it is 100% obvious for North not to cover with the King.
Anyway, assuming that the E-W Declarer manages to pick up the Diamonds for just one loser, and further assuming that when West is Declarer that North does not find the dastardly opening lead of a Spade, then 11 tricks are possible in No Trump.
Our inclination with the South hand would be simply to bid 3NT opposite Partner’s 1NT opening. The theory here is that when our side has such an abundance of HCP’s (substantially more than enough for game, but not enough for slam), then, even when we have a major suit fit, we may well score the same number of tricks in 3NT. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz.
OK, how do those respective contracts do? - If North plays in 4♥: This will be 12 tricks, thanks to the friendly Spades and the Diamond ruff. - If North plays in 3NT: This one depends on the lead. If East leads a Diamond, it’s 12 tricks. Any other lead and it will be just 12 tricks when the Diamond finesse loses. Had the Diamond finesse won then the 3NT bidders would be +690 against all of the +680’s. Oh, well.
Double Dummy Fantasy Deep Finesse says that 12 tricks can be made in No Trump and Deep Finesse is always right. The play to make 12 No Trump tricks is unlikely to happen at the table, but it is rather pretty: East avoids a Diamond lead and starts with a Heart, won by Dummy’s Ace The J♠ is finessed A Spade is lost to East Heart return won by Declarer K♦ is cashed The J♦ is led (!!), covered by East’s Queen and Dummy’s Ace Three Clubs are cashed with the aid of the finesse Two Hearts are cashed ending on the board. When the last Heart is cashed, West is squeezed in Spades and Diamonds. Note the effect of the J♦ play. It transfers the Diamond threat from the East hand to the West hand, which of course is the same hand as the Spade threat. Hence the name, a Transfer Squeeze. Would it help for West to split his Spade honors? No, Declarer can simply duck and later score three Spade tricks.
Playing in 2♥, East can scramble 8 tricks, here’s one way: A♠ and K♠ are cashed Spade ruffed on the board Cross to the A♦ 9♥, covered by the Ten, Jack and Ace North exits a minor suit Heart to Dummy’s King At this point, North has the 75 of trumps sitting over the 64, so Declarer just cashes minor suit winners and lets North take her trumps whenever she likes.
DONT Addendum Did any Souths jump into the fray with a 2♦ DONT bid? Not such a bad idea considering the vulnerability. If South does venture 2♦, West will be deprived of her transfer and, not being a fan of the dreaded “Stole my bid” convention, he will bid 2♥ naturally. North will play South for Diamonds and Spades and will compete to 2♠, which is no doubt where she will play it. Against 2♠, the defense can manage 6 tricks so it’s -50 for N-S, beating those timid N-S pairs who never got into the auction. Chalk up this one as a triumph for 4-4 DONT bids!
A nice balancing Double by East, but to no avail, South pushes on to 3♠, making 9 tricks. South did well not to preempt to 4♠, that would have only succeeded in getting a minus score.
Against 3NT, after a Diamond opening lead from North, Declarer is likely to come to 9 tricks. But if he tries an anti-percentage “intra-finesse” in Spades he can make no fewer than 11 tricks. Here’s another double dummy line of play to end the set: Diamond lead won by Declarer’s Ten Heart to Dummy’s Ace Ten of Spades covered by the Jack, Queen, Ace Heart return won by South’s Ace Diamond won by Declarer’s Ace Eight of Spades is run around, squashing South’s Seven That wizardy with the spots provides Declarer with 3 Spade tricks and 11 altogether.
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