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Hand Analyses 7th November, 2007
A rather tame start to the set. Against 2♠, East starts out with the K♥, the defense can cash three Hearts and, thanks to the obliging Spades and Diamonds, it will be 9 tricks for Declarer when he later loses just a Diamond.
West might have doubled 1NT, but reasonably decided to get his 5-card major into the auction, no doubt hoping to buy the contract at the two-level and make it more difficult for N-S to find their own fit. But North was not to be denied and with her 6-card Heart suit she was prepared to compete to the 3-level. The chosen method was a 2NT Lebensohl bid, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. In the meantime let us just say that 2NT was the beginning of a sequence which allowed North to compete to the 3-level in any of the other suits, and that 3♣ was a forced response.
Against 3♥, East leads the A♦ and can now go one of two ways: - Cash the second Diamond and shift to a Spade. Dummy’s Ace wins the trick, and Declarer will try to get rid of her two Spade losers by cashing 3 Clubs, and then playing the Q♦. West will ruff (low), which stops the second Spade pitch, but it also sacrifices the defense’s potential second trump trick. Making 9 tricks. - Shift to a Spade at Trick Two. Dummy’s Ace wins, and Declarer can cash three Clubs (pitching a Diamond), but now the entry situation does not permit the trump suit to be picked up. In effect, Declarer is trading a Diamond loser for an extra trump loser.
Back to the bidding. Perhaps East could have tried 3♠ with his 3-card support and singleton in the enemy suit.. That is a contract that goes down one. For example, the defense starts with two rounds of Spades, Dummy gets just one Heart ruff, the other Heart loser goes on the second round of Diamonds, but Declarer’s trumps are too few to allow him to set up a slow Club trick.
West’s Double of their cue-bid is best used as showing extra values, rather than showing good Hearts. North’s 2♠ showed a minimum overcall. How about that 2NT by East? We would say that, in the context of this auction, it shows a weak hand with both minors, for more on the rationale for this conclusion please see the Bidding Quiz. Finally, South’s 3♠ was not a game invitation, it was purely competitive, if she had wanted to make a forward-going move she could have bid 3♣ or 3♦.
Who can make what? N-S have 9 tricks in Spades with no realistic prospect for more. As for E-W, playing in Clubs, there will be 9 tricks also, at least if N-S find the unlikely defense of A♥ opening lead, then a Heart to the King and a Heart ruff. Suppose, however, that North finds the less inspired opening lead of the K♠. Declarer wins and lays down the A♣, noticing the appearance of a quack (Queen or Jack) from North. Now, the Principal of Restricted Choice suggests that Declarer should cross to the board (with a Spade ruff), and finesse against South for the missing quack. Is there a good reason on the actual hand to play for the drop instead? Well, perhaps the opponents might have got to 4♠ with a 10-card fit and a singleton, and you might think that’s a strong enough reason to go against Restricted Choice. We are not entirely convinced ourselves, so happy guessing on your way to 9 or 10 tricks.
Against 4♠, East’s will no doubt want to attack with a red suit lead, and a Heart looks more promising, that being the shorter suit and therefore more likely to build a second round (or even third round) winner. Now, Declarer draws trumps, and leads towards her Clubs. The King loses to the Ace, the defense cashes a Heart and Declarer makes 10 or 11 tricks depending upon her ability to guess the Club suit (it seems normal to play for the 2-2 break, so she’ll probably misguess).
Actually 12 tricks are possible, but it’s strictly double dummy. Declarer double-hooks against East’s QT in Diamonds, setting up a pitch for the Heart loser, and, of course, guesses the Clubs correctly.
East reasonably decided not to pursue a 4-4 Spade fit, deciding that his Heart holding made a defensive Heart ruff likely, and that his soft values were more NT-oriented. However, 3NT is no great bargain and is likely to go down. We don’t know if this makes real sense at the table, but here’s a line whereby Declarer can scrape up 9 tricks: Heart lead won by Dummy’s Jack Club to Declarer’s Jack Cash A♣, felling South’s Jack Club to the Queen Finesse of the Diamond Jack Cash the last Club Cash the A♦ There are now 6 cards left. North will have had to hold on to Kx of Spades, so will be down to just 4 Hearts. Declarer exits a Heart, North cashes her 4 Hearts tricks, and is now end-played in Spades. Very nice, but probably unlikely in real life.
The auction is straightforward enough, and against 4♥ North will lead a minor suit: - If North leads a Club, Dummy’s Ace wins the trick and now the A♥ is cashed. When both defenders follow low, Declarer can afford the safety play in Hearts, ducking the second round in case South started QJxx. This is a safety play which can save a trick but cannot cost. Later in the play, Declarer loses the Spade finesse, but the Spades provide two pitches for the Diamonds, and 11 tricks are made without the need for the Diamond finesse. - If North leads a Diamond, things are more complicated. Suppose that Dummy plays low and the Ten forces the Ace. Now the trump safety play is less attractive, the danger being that North wins the trick and continues Diamonds … if South has the Q♦ it won’t be possible to get rid of Declarer’s Diamond losers in time. With that in mind, Declarer might skip the safety play altogether, or might try taking the Spade finesse at Trick Two, losing a trick to South at a time that she cannot attack Diamonds.
Do you approve of South’s 2♠ bid? Thousands wouldn’t, no doubt mentioning the fact that the Spade suit is rather weak, the HCP’s are minimum, and the vulnerability is red. All true, but we like the bid, being egged on by the Spade fillers and the nice 6-4 shape.
The play in 4♠ is instructive, please see the Play Problem.
A cut-and-thrust part-score battle, all of the bids in the featured auction make sense to us, but we can also imagine a hundred other different auctions taking place.
Against 2♥, here’s one possible line of play: Club opening lead to the Nine and Declarer’s Ten Q♠ is finessed Diamond lead, East rising with the Ace Diamond to Declarer’s King Cross to the A♠ Diamond ruff A♣ is cashed Exit to the K♣ A♥ and K♥ are cashed Now Declarer exits a Spade and must come to two more trump tricks. That’s down only one.
West was not quite good enough for game-invitational rebid of 3♠, and East not quite good enough to invite game over 2♠, so E-W come to rest in the cozy contract of 2♠.
The play in 2♠ is hard to predict, but it looks like 8 or 9 tricks. Here’s one exotic possibility, where Declarer tries to set up the Hearts while the defense tries to thwart that plan: Club lead (best for the defense) won by Dummy’s Ace Low Heart from the board won by South’s Queen Q♣ (!) return (knocking out Dummy’s entry), won by Dummy’s Ace K♥, covered by the Ace and ruffed Spade to North’s King Spade return won by Dummy’s Queen J♥ is cashed, pitching a Diamond Another Heart, pitching a Diamond (nice play!), ruffed by North Now the defense can cash a Diamond but that’s it, 9 tricks for Declarer.
North’s Double was DONT showing a one-suited hand, and 2♠ was the final contract. If East could be relieved of the obligation to break open the red suits Declarer would be limited to just 6 tricks (5 trumps and a Club), but in practice 8 tricks are quite likely: K♣ lead, won by Dummy’s Ace Four rounds of trumps Exit a Spade Now, East is end-played, and will be forced to give up a red suit trick, and later he will be end-played again for the 8th trick.
East’s Double was DONT, and, with such a good suit, East probably felt on safe ground. Not so! South redoubled, no doubt showing maximum values and good defense, and North, who had been close to inviting to game earlier, was happy to cooperate with a penalty Double.
2♠ doubled is down two tricks if the defense gets its Heart ruff, down just one otherwise.
It’s OK to use Michaels with a 6-5 hand, but perhaps not a good idea when the major is 6 cards and the second suit is a 5-card minor. North was apparently of the same opinion and wound up in 4♣ doubled.
East might reasonably decide that, with those slow tricks in Declarer’s side suit, the best defense is to stop the ruffs in Dummy. So he leads a Club which is won on the board, then a Spade to West’s Ace, another trump won in Declarer’s hand, Spade ruff, Heart ruff, draw the last trump, and eventually lose one more Spade and two Diamonds. Declarer’s only losers in this line of play are two Spades and two Diamonds for down just one.
The defense does better if it plays a forcing game, as follows: Heart to East’s Jack, Declarer pitching a Diamond Low Heart, North pitches another Diamond, East ruffs Q♦ is led, Declarer must finally ruff A Club to Dummy’s King Now, West plays the K♥, and, wriggle as Declarer might, she cannot come to more than 8 tricks.
West does not have a good bid after Partner’s 1♠ opening, and 2♣ is as good as anything else. After 2♥, West’s raise to 3♥ was forcing (in a 2/1 style), and stronger than a direct 4♥. East, with a minimum and an Aceless hand, and with shortage in Partner’s (supposed) Club suit had no reason to cue-bid here. Nice restraint by West, that square shape was a major deterrent.
Any E-W pair that stays at the 4-level would probably score well. There is a Diamond loser, and, with normal play, a trump loser, and, again with normal play, a Spade loser. That’s just 10 tricks. Of course, if Declarer is allowed to check the Hand Record before the play of the hand he can make 12 tricks by playing both of the major suits against the odds. We predict some minus scores by those E-W pairs who get to the 5- or 6-level.
East had a difficult rebid and his 3♦ was something of an improvisation (please see the Bidding Quiz).
On lead against 4♥, after this auction, with the specter of numerous Club winners in Dummy, North will not want to make a passive trump lead. Would you lead Partner’s Diamond suit, or lay down the A♠? Dr Goodlead’s choice was the A♠ and that indeed is the winner, if the defense does not grab its two Spades right away Declarer has 12 top tricks.
Defensive Carding Note Nowadays, against suit contracts, most players, on opening lead, play the Ace from Ace-King, and his Partner signals on the assumption that the opening leader has the King (for example, encouraging with a small doubleton). However, when the suit has been bid and raised, as Spades have here, there’s a lot to be said for playing King from Ace-King. The reason is that we tend not to lead unsupported Aces, with one (occasional) exception being when Partner has shown strength in the suit. This agreement can also be extended to when Partner has bid the suit naturally (with or without our support).
North’s 3♠ was preemptive, of course, and would have gone for a disastrous -500 if E-W had found a Double.
Against 4♥, South will lead the A♠, followed by the K♠ (hoping to weaken the trump holding). Now, Declarer’s best line appears to be to cash the A♥ and J♥, then cash the A♦ and K♦ (pitching a Spade), and finesse the J♣: - If the Club finesse wins, then the last trumps are drawn. Declarer makes 12 tricks if North started with K♣ doubleton, and 11 tricks if Clubs are 3-2. - If the Club finesse loses, assuming that Clubs are 3-2, it will be 11 tricks.
Put yourself in West’s unfortunate shoes, we’ve all been there. You and Partner clearly have the balance of the points, the pesky opponents bid up to 4♠, and you can tell that there is no safety for your side at the 5-level (actually, there was no safety beyond the 2-level on the lie of the cards!). So you double 4♠, not without trepidation, and your fears are realized when the opponents score up 10 tricks.
Suppose that, as North, you arrive in 4♠ doubled, and the defense starts with two rounds of Clubs. You ruff the second round, of course, but now what? You could take a ruffing finesse in Hearts, and on the lie of the cards that work just fine. But a better play is to lose a Diamond at Trick Three, then, on winning the return, to cash the A♠, cash the two Diamond winners, and cross ruff the whole hand. Making 10 tricks, regardless of the location of the A♥.
South’s 2♣ was game-forcing, after which the bidding subsided in 3NT.
OK, the contract is 3NT and the opponents lead a Heart. First of all, how would you play the hand in a team game, where the primary goal is to make the contract? It won’t do to play the A♦ and then the Q♦ because a defender who started with Kxx in the suit will duck that second round, possibly cutting off Dummy from those Diamond winners (depending on the Spade situation), after which 3-3 Clubs are required to bring home the contract. The safest line is surely to win the opening lead and play the Q♦ from Dummy at Trick Two. If the defense ducks this, then the J♦ should be led. This play ensures the contract unless East has KTxx of Diamonds and the Clubs are not 3-3.
That’s fine, but we are playing matchpoints here and we’d like to give ourselves a chance to make 12 tricks when the cards are favorable. So, we’d play on Clubs first, and, when they break we would run the suit, pitching all of Dummy’s Spades, and a Heart and a Diamond. Now, we try the Diamond finesse, and if it loses we must hope that the A♠ is not offside. Only if the A♠ and the K♦ are both wrong will we regret this line of play, in which case we can expect a spirited post mortem with Partner.
6♥ is a 50% proposition and we doubt that many pairs will bid this slam. Against 4♥ (or 6♥) North must find the Club lead just to hold Declarer to 12 tricks. On any other lead the 2-2 Hearts and the favorable Spades conspire to produce 13 tricks for Declarer.
We certainly would not want to pass that West hand, those lovely Hearts need to be mentioned. Our own choice would be 2♥, one of the relatively rare occasions when a Weak Two with a 5-card suit seems appropriate. That will get E-W to 4♥ in a hurry, making 10 tricks.
Well, maybe. North has a rather bland hand, but considering the vulnerability, she’ll surely chirp in with 2♠ over 2♥. It’s the winning bid, South will sacrifice in 4♠, which will be doubled. At first glance it might appear that 4♠ is down only one trick, but the defense can actually beat it two by arranging for a trump promotion. The defense cashes two Hearts, then two Diamonds. Now, a third round of Diamonds makes sure of a 5th defensive trick … if Dummy ruffs high then East’s Q♠ will score a trick … and if Dummy ruffs low there is an overruff.
Do you play the Gambling 3NT? It doesn’t seem to come up very often, but here’s how it works when it does: - In first or second seat, a 3NT opening shows a solid minor suit, typically AKQJxxx, and nothing outside; - In third or fourth seat, the bidder has at least one outside card.
There are variations, but that’s the basic convention. On this hand, East’s minor is not exactly solid, but the 8th Diamond counts for a lot, and the East hand looks as if it needs to be Declarer in order to protect those doubleton Kings. So, East tries 3NT here, which turns out to be the best spot.
After a Gambling 3NT opening, it’s customary for the opening leader to lay down an Ace, hoping to find a running suit for the defense before the avalanche of (in this case) Diamonds. To that end, South lays down the A♥, then, after seeing Dummy, she might try the A♣, after which it’s 11 easy tricks for Declarer.
The defense can make it harder for Declarer by refraining from cashing the A♣, and shifting to a Spade at Trick Two. Against this unlikely defense, the route to 11 tricks is a dangerous one, requiring Declarer to unblock the K♥ at Trick One, and later finesse the Heart.
Back to the bidding. One of the benefits of the Gambling 3NT is its preemptive value. On the actual hand South might be tempted to bid 4♥, which gets doubled and goes for 1100. Do you think that 4♥ is a bit much? Perhaps it is, but consider that, if the North and West hands were switched, then 4♥ by South makes 11 tricks (admittedly with the help of a few finesses).
2♦ was an Inverted Minor raise, showing at least invitational values, and denying a 4-card major. North’s 2♥ showed values in Hearts, and N-S reached the good No Trump slam.
Against 6NT, West might reasonably lead anything but a Diamond. Declarer has 11 top tricks and will play on Diamonds for a 12th. The best way of tackling the suit is to lead towards the AJ872, planning to insert the Eight if East plays low. Then, if that loses to the King or Queen, the Jack is finessed on the second round. According to The Dictionary of Suit Combinations this brings in the suit for one loser almost 70% of the time. This turns out to be one of the 30% where there is a second Diamond loser.
Anyone for some double dummy squeeze play? Let’s say that West leads the Q♠. This is won by Dummy’s Ace, then the Clubs and Hearts are cashed, coming down to this 5-card ending: Dummy ♠ 6 ♥ J ♦ T64 ♣ West East ♠ J7 Immaterial ♥ ♦ KQ9 ♣ Declarer ♠ K ♥ ♦ AJ87 ♣ Now, when Dummy plays the J♥, Declarer pitches a Diamond and West is squeezed: - If West pitches a Diamond, Declarer simply plays A♦ and out a Diamond - If West pitches a Spade, Declarer plays a Spade to the King (removing West’s safe exit card), then a low Diamond from her hand, end-playing West.
East’s square hand is not suitable for a 3-card Spade raise, and West’s 2♣ (New Minor Forcing) finds the 6-3 fit.
Against 4♠, if seems normal enough for North to lead a Heart after this auction. Declarer wins his King, crosses to the A♦, cashes the A♥ pitching a Club. Declarer has a Club and a Spade to lose, and must guess the Diamonds for the overtrick. He will have seen North’s Ten on the first round of Diamonds. Is it a singleton? Probably not, she might have led that originally. QT doubleton? Yes, quite possibly. Or it a false card (or a pointless count signal) from Tx? Happy guessing, we disqualify ourselves from the problem as we have seen all the hands.
If North hits upon the A♣ lead and continuation, the defense gets 3 tricks, but there is no Diamond guess needed … one Diamond goes on the Club, another on the Heart.
A frustrating hand for West. He would have done better to double a third time, letting Partner play in 3♦, making 8 or 9 tricks. But his 2NT looks reasonable enough, even if it does turn out to be a hopeless contract. It’s hard to predict the outcome of 2NT, but surely it’s down at least two tricks.
West’s 2♣ was New Minor Forcing after which it’s easy to see how some pairs will end up in 2NT, others in 3NT. If South leads an unlikely low Diamond, Declarer is held to 8 tricks. Things are not so easy for the defense if South starts out with the 9♠, but they can still come to 5 tricks with careful play. The key to the defense is, on the play of the Hearts, for South to duck the first Heart (North will give a count signal to show an odd number). After that opening Spade lead, does it help Declarer to play a low Spade from the board, winning the trick with his Ace, thereby making sure of a Spade entry to the established Hearts? Well, it’s a neat way of solving the entry problem, but it doesn’t quite work, the defense will get to 5 before Declarer gets his 9.
West might well have doubled 1♦, that would have pushed N-S to the 3-level.
Playing in Clubs, East does best to lead a Diamond. West wins and shifts to a trump, which Declarer wins. Now a Heart is lost to West, another trump, the A♠ is knocked out, and East can take the defense’s fourth and last trick whenever he pleases.
Walsh Note Coincidentally, on Boards 25, 26 and 28 there were opportunities for Walsh-style auctions, all of which we discuss in the Bidding Quiz.
Playing in 2♣, Declarer will lose 2 Spades, a Heart, a Diamond and a Club, making 8 tricks and +90.
Walsh Note Coincidentally, on Boards 25, 26 and 28 there were opportunities for Walsh-style auctions, all of which we discuss in the Bidding Quiz.
What would be your opening lead against 3NT? There aren’t many clues. - You might lead a Spade because it’s the unbid major, and North has denied this suit. - You might lead a Diamond, it is your longest suit. Then again, you don’t have any likely entries, so it won’t help to set up the 13th Diamond. - You might lead a Club, at least in that suit you have some help for Partner.
We gave this one to Dr Goodlead, and he immediately found the Club lead. But he wasn’t too sure which Club would work out best. “If I lead a low Club, the suit might block. If I lead the Ten, Partner might misread my holding. I could go either way, but definitely one Club or the other”.
Yes, a Club lead works out best, because it simultaneously attacks the defense’s strongest suit and knocks out an entry from Declarer’s hand. Declarer ducks two Clubs, wins the third round, and tries the Hearts. When they break 3-3 she cashes the remaining Hearts (pitching Spades from hand), then finesses East out of his K♦ for 11 easy tricks. Pretty simple, eh? Not so fast! If East covers the T♦ with the K♦ on the first round of the suit, and if West has had the foresight to hang on to all of his insignificant-looking Diamonds, then the suit is blocked, and Declarer has no entries back to her hand thanks to that opening Club lead. Nine tricks only for Declarer against good defense.
A straightforward auction to the normal contract. Unless South finds the bizarre opening lead of a Diamond it will be 11 tricks when Declarer has two black Kings to lose.
Walsh Note Coincidentally, on Boards 25, 26 and 28 there were opportunities for Walsh-style auctions, all of which we discuss in the Bidding Quiz.
Opposite a direct 2♥ overcall, South would have had enough to go to game. But here North is in the balancing seat and need not have very much. Therefore, South’s plan was to make a game try of 2♠, a plan that was derailed by East bidding 2♠ first. So, South merely competed to 3♥, hoping that the underbid did not lead to a missed game.
Playing in Hearts, Declarer can make 9 tricks, the key to that being to play on Diamonds early, finessing twice against West, using trumps for communications.
Yes, E-W have 10 tricks in Clubs thanks to the working Club finesse, but it’s hard to see them getting so high at this vulnerability, even if East chooses to double 2♥ rather than rebid his Spades.
After an abundance of part-score hands the computer finally gives us something a little wild. After 3♦, South has no two-suited bid available, so settles for 4♣, hoping she will get the chance to bid those Spades later. She does, but West keeps on bidding Hearts until he gets doubled.
Is South’s Double the Lightner Slam Double (and asking for a Diamond lead)? No, we don’t think that it should be, North and South have shown some values, it’s merely a Double made in the expectation of the opponents going down. It’s true that South happens to want a Diamond lead, of course, but that is coincidental. From North’s viewpoint, a Diamond lead is dangerous, it might give Dummy an entry that was otherwise unavailable, and also provide a fast pitch for Declarer. So, let’s say that North leads the safe Q♣. This holds and South plays the discouraging Two. If South had wanted to play Spades at Trick Two, she could have overtaken the Q♣, so the unmistakable conclusion is that a Diamond ruff is indeed required.
Back to the bidding. N-S can make 12 tricks in Spades, can they reasonably bid it? Perhaps so, please see the Bidding Quiz.
3♠ turns out to be one too many. South leads a Diamond to North’s Queen, and now a trump switch holds Declarer to 6 Spade tricks and two Clubs, for down one.
We’ll never know why South didn’t bid the Unusual 2NT over East’s 1♠ (especially White vs Red), but at least her failure to do so gave us a more interesting auction, allowing us to ask the question “What does South’s 2NT mean in the featured auction?” It shows two places to play, please see the Bidding Quiz. One of those places could be Clubs (notwithstanding the opening bid), and after North’s 3♣, South was planning to bid 3♦, telling Partner that her two places to play were actually the red suits. But East’s 3♠ got in the way of that, and became the final contract.
Against 3♠, South might well try leading her singleton Club, after which Declarer must be sure to hop up with the Ace, lest the defense gets two Club ruffs and a total of 6 tricks. Without the ruffs, Declarer can simply draw trumps and lose the obvious 4 tricks.
If N-S manage to play it in Hearts, there is not much to the play, 8 tricks for Declarer.
Back to the bidding. Do you agree with North’s bidding in the featured auction? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
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