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Hand Analyses 31st October, 2007
South’s 2NT asked Partner to describe her hand, and the 3♦ response showed a 3-card raise with a good hand. We’d say that South’s plunge into Roman Key Card was a little impetuous, she might have tried a 4♣ cue-bid first. Anyway, the final contract of 6♠ is a pretty good one.
If West starts out with a Club lead (he might well do so), Declarer should jump up with Dummy’s Jack, and take an immediate Spade finesse into West’s hand. When that loses, she goes after a Club ruff on the board for her 12th trick.
Suppose, instead, that West’s opening lead is a Diamond. What’s the best route to 12 tricks now? Please see the Play Problem.
West was surely right not to invite to game with that 8-count. Yes, we are taught to revere Aces, they are generally agreed to be undervalued in the 4-3-2-1 scale. But let’s take off something for that square shape, and then some more for the abominable absence of Tens and Nines. Not even close to being invitational!
It turns out that, even with a super-maximum 1NT opening, the E-W hands do not belong in game. South will lead the J♦ (or the Ten if that is the N-S lead convention), won by Declarer’s Queen. At this point Declarer has 6 top tricks and will cross to the A♠ in order to lead a Heart. North ducks, and the King wins, giving Declarer his 7th trick. Where should he look for the 8th? Two possibilities: - Cash the K♠, and if the suit is 3-2 then lose a Spade and take 8 easy tricks, no more, no less. - Cross to the A♣ and lead another Heart. We’ll look foolish if South had the A♥ all the time, but that is unlikely, it would be quite a play by South to duck, not knowing where the Q♥ was. When the second Heart is led from the board, North will have an awkward guess. If Declarer started with KQJx of Hearts then North does best to duck, holding Declarer to 2 tricks in the suit. But, if Declarer ducks on the actual hand, the Q♥ will win the trick, and now a 9th trick can be established in Spades. Of course, a 3-3 Heart break will also bring in 9 tricks.
We would say that this is a well-judged auction by all concerned. Playing in 4♦, North must guess the Diamond situation to make 10 tricks. She’ll be familiar with the Principle of Restricted Choice, and will want to guess which of the defenders is likely to be short in Diamonds: - If West is short in Diamonds, she will want to play the A♦ first. That way, if West’s singleton is the Queen or Jack, she will finesse against East for the other honor. - Conversely, if she thinks that East is more likely to be short in Diamonds, she’ll play the suit the other way.
Declarer won’t have much to go on, the only clue is that West has longer Clubs (probably by 6 to 4), so therefore East is slightly more likely to have the Diamond length. It’s a pretty slim indication, and also the wrong one as the Diamond length turns out to be with West. Anyway, making 9 or 10 tricks depending on the play of the Diamond suit.
How do N-S do playing in Clubs? North lays down the A♦ and promptly shifts to the K♥. Nice shift, but to no avail. Declarer wins the Ace, draws trumps and leads a Spade towards the board. North hops up with the Ace, but the Heart suit is blocked, so Declarer’s second Heart loser goes away on the K♠.
Double Dummy Note At first glance, one might think that the opening lead of the K♥ will beat 4♣. Not so, if North is allowed to make double dummy opening leads, then we will permit Declarer to find this delicately timed line of play: K♥ opening lead, won by Declarer’s Ace Declarer draws just one round of trumps Declarer exits a Diamond (Scissors Coup!) won by North T♥ wins the next trick Diamond ruff Club won by Declarer Spade won by North’s Ace Nicely done, Declarer! He needed the second round of trumps for communications, so played North to be 6-2-4-1. It was also essential to lose the Diamond at Trick Three, severing the enemy communications and making it impossible for them to untangle their 4 tricks.
When was the last time that you had such a great hand opposite a 2NT opening bid? We are not sure that we ever have! If we were playing a team game, we’d no doubt bid as follows: North South 2NT 4♥ 4♠ 4NT 5♥ 6♠ Pass Yes, a nice simple auction to a safe slam. 4♥ is Texas, and 4NT is Roman Key Card. How about this auction as an alternative? North South 2NT 3♥ 3♠ 4NT 5♥ 6♠ Pass No, the standard treatment of this auction is that South is showing 5 Spades and invitational slam values. Jacoby then 4NT is quantitative (that is, invitational to slam), and Texas then 4NT is Roman Key Card. Exactly the same applies if the opening bid is 1NT (although some pairs use 1NT 2♥, 2♠ 4♣ as Roman Key Card, a fine treatment in our view).
OK, now that we’ve straightened out our Jacoby/Texas/Blackwood agreements and figured out our strategy for the Sunday Swiss, let’s get back to the actual problem, which is, of course, being played for matchpoints. In those circumstances, we’d like to play in 7NT given all the Aces, and in 6NT if one is missing. Of course, there is the danger that we are missing AK in one suit, but we’d say that is a fairly small risk, more than overridden by the more likely benefit of getting those extra 10 points in No Trump. We wouldn’t mess around, we’d bid 4♣ (Gerber) and end up in 6NT. During the auction, our 9-card Spade suit would not see the light of day, and we’d look forward to putting down, as Dummy, the unmentioned 9-card magnificence with a great flourish.
Tragi-Comical Afterthought Has your Partner ever opened 2NT, holding: ♠ A, ♥ AKQ9, ♦ JT98, ♣ AK87? If she has that hand and if they lead a Diamond, your matchpoint-influenced 7NT will be down 5 when 7♠ is cold. Well, if that happens, you can always console yourself with the thought: “Thank goodness for Partner’s renowned sense of humor!”
If West had not so rudely interrupted the N-S auction, then North would have had a perfect hand for a 2♣ Drury bid (or maybe 2♦, according to some methods). But, the 2♥ bid removes that option, so we’d try 3♥ here. Yes, it’s slightly dangerous, who only knows what third seat atrocity our esteemed Partner might have perpetrated? But, we can hardly do less than bid 3♥, sometimes our third seat Partner actually has a real opening hand! East’s Double showed Hearts and a decent hand, and the bidding subsided in 3♠. Please see the Bidding Quiz for the difference between 3♠ and Pass in this situation.
3♠ may not be a lot of fun for Declarer. West might lay down the A♥ and when Dummy hits with that KT6 in Hearts, what are your methods? Suit preference is not a bad idea, provided that both Partners are on the same wavelength. Of course, that will work like a charm on the actual hand, and the defense will collect a Heart, two Clubs, a Club ruff and two Diamonds for 6 tricks and a whopping +200. Whopping only because 4♥ does not quite make.
In this auction, North follows the tried and trusted procedure of trying for a major suit fit (via that Negative Double) before supporting Partner’s minor.
Both sides have 8 trumps, both sides should make 8 tricks on the lie of the cards. A triumph for the Law of Total Tricks. North did well to compete to the 3-level non-vulnerable, and we will bet that there will be some N-S pairs in your Wednesday Game who just could not resist bidding 3♠, converting the E-W minus into a N-S minus.
The featured auction looks reasonable enough, but it’s easy to see that how this hand might be played in Hearts, Diamonds or Clubs. Here’s what might happen in those contracts: - If West plays in Hearts, he can be held to 9 tricks, but the defense must start with Diamonds and ruff out Declarer’s Q♦, otherwise that card will provide the 10th trick. - If North plays in Clubs, the defense will surely grab it’s Heart trick immediately, holding Declarer to 9 tricks when the Clubs break 4-1. - If South plays in Diamonds, it’s only 8 tricks on all but the most unfortunate of defenses.
Bidding Post Script Many North players will prefer a Negative Double of 1♥, and we wouldn’t argue with that, it keeps Spades in the picture and the plan would be to venture Clubs later on, no doubt at the 3-level. Here’s how the auction might proceed on the actual hand: South West North East 1♦ 1♥ Dbl 2♦ 3♦ Pass ?? How awkward! We suppose that North should pass now, but it’s difficult not to try 4♣, and, sadly for North, this will be doubled by East and down one for the dreaded -200. Unlucky for North, we’re not suggesting that the Double was wrong, it just didn’t work out on this hand.
It’s unusual to overcall 1NT with just two cards in the enemy suit, but reasonable here with that strong Spade holding and only three Hearts. Over 2♠, North decided she would not sell out so cheaply and would compete to 3♣, which she did via Lebensohl. Her 2NT was a relay to 3♣, allowing her to compete to the 3-level without offering any encouragement about game.
North’s decision to compete worked well when the 5-4 fit was found. Even so, 3♣ can be defeated if West finds the K♥ opening lead (or A♦ and K♥ switch), getting the defense 4 top tricks and a Heart ruff. Nice going by West if he found that lead or switch, but even down one in 3♣ is preferable to letting E-W make 8 tricks in 2♠ (and it will be 9 if South’s opening lead is anything other than a Club).
South’s 2♣ was New Minor Forcing, an attempt to find a 5-3 Spade fit. North could not oblige with Spades but did have a maximum, so she jumped directly to 3NT, after which South corrected to 4♥.
East leads the K♣ and Declarer can count 14 tricks if the majors behave perfectly. Then again, if we draw trumps without loss, and then have to concede a Spade, we might even find ourselves down one. The line which best combines safety with the prospect of overtricks appears to be to play on Spades first, and at Trick Two we would finesse the J♠. West wins his Q♠ and, with no Clubs to return, exits a Diamond to Declarer’s Ace. Now, a Spade to Dummy’s Ace, Heart finesse, back to the A♥, another Heart finesse followed by a 4th round of trumps. Now, Dummy overtakes the Q♦ with the King, and when the Spades break it’s 12 tricks.
There may be more to the N-S auction than meets the eye, please see the Bidding Quiz. In the meantime, let’s just say that 2♦ showed Spade support and values, and that North’s Pass of the Double was more encouraging than bidding 2♠ directly.
The play in 3♠ (or 4♠) may well lead to 10 tricks for Declarer, please see the Play Problem.
Not everybody likes to bid Michaels (for the majors) with that North hand, there’s a school of though which prefers to use that convention only with weak or strong hands, with middling hands they would rather overcall 1♠ and then introduce Hearts later.
Anyway, let’s say that North, for better or worse, decides to use Michaels on this hand, and now let’s turn our attention to the East hand. How do you like his bidding? The first Double showed general values, and the second Double was for business. Actually, we don’t like either bid, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
The play in 2♥ doubled could be quite complicated, we’d expect East to lead a Diamond, after which the play might go: Diamond lead to Dummy’s Ace (West plays the King because he can) Spade Eight run around to East’s Ace Club shift won by Declarer’s Ace Spade to Dummy’s Jack and West’s King Q♦ is cashed J♦ is ruffed with the Six and overruffed with the Queen K♣ is ruffed Low Spade ruffed on the board Heart Ten run around to East’s King At this point Declarer has the rest of the tricks, and that is an unsightly -470 on the E-W score-sheet. And, if we may say so, a well-deserved -470. The error on the defense occurred when East overruffed that Diamond, if he had declined to do so the defense will beat the contract one trick. And an opening Club lead followed by razor-sharp defense might even beat 2♥ by two tricks.
Some E-W pairs will get to 3NT. Will they make it? Yes, 9 tricks materialize for Declarer, making that East bidding look even worse!
Opposite a passed hand, East decided not to look for the perfect slam cards in Partner’s hand and settled for 4♠. It turns out that Partner does indeed have the perfect cards, and 6♠ merely needs trumps not to be 4-0 offside and Hearts not 4-1, a combined probability of around 65%. In fact the slam is even better than that because, as on the actual hand, when Hearts are 4-1, the defense might not find the killing defense. It takes a Club lead (or the A♦ and a Club shift) to beat the slam, it’s necessary to knock out Dummy’s entry right away.
North’s sequence showed 22-23, giving N-S a total of 32-33, and on the borderline for slam. North also had three Tens and a nice 5-card suit so she just bid 6NT, which turns out to be a fine contract, especially played from the North side. The Heart finesse loses, but it’s still one Spade, 3 Hearts, 5 Diamonds, and 3 Clubs for a total of 12.
West is at the top of his range for the 2NT overcall, at least in terms of HCP’s, but, as 18-counts go, this one is pretty miserable (square, no fillers). North has quite a lovely offensive hand, but chooses to defend. After the Double of 2NT, E-W might find themselves in unfamiliar territory. Do they play “systems on” here? Or some runout system. We’d suggest that, if you have a runout method for when the opponents double 1NT, then that same method should be used in this situation.
The defense to 3♦ doubled could be vicious: Heart to North’s Queen, Spade back to the Ace, Spade ruff, A♥, Heart ruff, Club to the Queen, A♣, Club ruff. That’s 8 tricks for the defense, and -800 for Declarer.
Post Script We are always told that, once we have preempted, we are out of the auction and should leave matters to Partner. But that does not apply here, surely South is entitled to double 3♦ holding 3 likely defensive tricks opposite a strength-showing partner.
Against 4♠, East might well lead the disastrous Q♣, allowing Declarer to score 11 tricks, via 5 trumps, two Heart ruffs on the board, and 4 Club tricks.
Let’s suppose that East find a trump lead. Dummy wins that, a Heart is led to the King and Ace, followed by another round of trumps. Declarer can get two ruffs in Dummy, and the contract now depends on friendly Clubs. Declarer will lead a Club towards the Ten, hoping that East has the QJ or that the suit is divided 3-3. All’s well, at least for Declarer, and it’s 10 tricks.
Against 1NT, East leads the Q♠ and Declarer craftily ducks. West will have played the Five, which is the lowest missing Spade. As such, it looks to be discouraging but it could be from T5 or K5 (with A5 West might overtake and return the suit). Let’s say that East guesses right and decides to switch. All exits are potentially dangerous, what would be your choice?
How about the quite spectacular shift to the K♣?! Yes, it’s an expert blocking play which can hardly cost when you stop to think about it: - If Declarer has Qxx, she can always make 4 tricks in the suit. - If Declarer has Qx, she can win the Ace and unblock the Queen, and later risk the Club finesse for the same 3 tricks she could always make in Clubs. - If Declarer has xxx, she always had 3 tricks in the suit. - If Declarer has xx, the only was to hold her to one trick in Clubs is to play the King on the first round, either by the K♣ shift, or by rising with the King later in the play when Declarer leads a Club towards the board.
Here’s how the play might develop: Q♠ ducked by Declarer K♣ won by Declarer’s Ace A♠ and K♠ are cashed Declarer exits a Spade Q♣ is cashed West shifts to a Diamond to East’s Queen Heart to the King and Declarer’s Ace Heart to East’s Queen Heart to West’s Hack Heart won by Declarer Now, with just two cards left, Declarer must concede the setting trick to West’s K♦. Nice defense!
What do you make of South’s unusual sequence? First she passes 1♥, then she balances with 2NT. What does this mean? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
The result in 3♦ is difficult to predict, especially when played from the North side. East lays down the A♥, gets the Two from Partner and shifts. But to what? One possibility is to cash the A♦, and exit a Diamond. Declarer, giving up on any hopes of a Spade ruff, draws the last trump and establishes the Clubs for 9 tricks.
Can the defense do better? Sure, they can negotiate a Club ruff for the setting trick if East shifts to a Club at Trick Two.
OK, can the defense do even better, and set Declarer two tricks? Yes, the best defense is to shift to a low Diamond at Trick Two. Declarer plays on Clubs and West ducks the first round, wins the second and gives Partner a Club ruff. Now, a Spade shift ensures 6 tricks for the defense.
Some Wests might start with a 3rd seat 1♦ opening bid, but we’d prefer a rather better suit if we are to open light in a minor. Anyway, it seems that E-W are destined to play this one in a Diamond part-score, and that is an easy 10 tricks when the trumps break.
East was no doubt tempted to bid 4♥, and surely would have done if his K♠ had been in a more useful spot, such as the Diamond suit. As it was, that King was likely to be under the Ace, and there was no sensible alternative to Pass.
Now we shift the spotlight to South. Would you raise Partner’s preemptive 3♠ to game? We don’t think so, that 17-count is not as good as it looks, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
South certainly did well not to push on to game because even making 3♠ requires a large slice of luck. The defense cashes two Hearts, and East shifts a Club. That finesse loses for Declarer, but the J♣ provides a Dummy entry, and the nice Spades allow 9 tricks.
East’s plan was to transfer to Spades and then rebid 4♥, offering Partner a choice of major suit games, but West short-circuited that by making a Spade super-accept.
6♠ (or 6♥) is a fine contract, but we doubt that many pairs will bid it. After all, West needs an absolute perfecto, the ideal 21-count with the right Heart cards as well as 4 Key Cards and the K♣.
It’s easy enough to see how N-S might get into 3NT on this hand, and it turns out to be a rather poor contract. But, after a Club lead, and thanks to the 4-4 Club split, it’s only 4 tricks for the defense.
A violent (and highly artificial) auction by E-W quickly arrives at the perfect spot! But what does it mean? The methods used were not standard, but nonetheless worthy of serious consideration: - 2♣ was Drury, a passed hand device showing Spade support and invitational values. Well, that part is pretty standard nowadays. - 2NT was a slam try. You could do a lot worse in this situation than to use whatever are your methods after a 1♥ or 1♠ opening followed by a Jacoby 2NT game-forcing raise. - 3♥ showed shortness. - 6♠ said “Perfect, just what I wanted to hear!”
6♠ is a wonderful contract, but it’s unlikely that E-W will reach it unless East is able to show a (passed) hand with values, support, and Heart shortness. A system triumph for pairs with those methods.
If North leads a trump, that will limit the ruffs on the board to just two and it will be no more than 12 tricks. Hang on a minute! North doesn’t have a trump to lead! The good news is that Declarer can now get three ruffs on the board, but the bad news is that South’s 9xxx of trumps is looming large and threatens to take a trick. That’s enough teasing, please see the Play Problem for how to make 13 tricks.
The featured auction was in the 2/1 style and eventually the desirable contract of 4♥ was reached. The play in 4♥ is routine, and 11 tricks will be made, with an inescapable loser in each of the red suits.
6♦ makes on the lie of the cards, but is it a good contract? Not at all, it requires all sorts of luck, such as breaking trumps, and the Heart finesse, at the very minimum.
West’s 2NT did not deny a 4-card Spade suit, and East showed 4-4 in the majors with that 3♠ rebid (with 4-5 he would have gone through New Minor Forcing).
Against 3NT, North will lead a Diamond, won by Declarer. He crosses to the K♥, and runs the J♣. The good news is that the finesse wins, but the suit breaks 4-1 and Declarer can come to no more than 8 tricks.
It’s predictable that many N-S pairs will compete to 5♠ and that they will get doubled. That will be +650 if Declarer guesses the Heart situation (which she should, the opening J♣ lead will say a lot about the missing high cards).
It’s unlikely that many E-W pairs will be allowed to play in 5♦ but those that do will be an unlucky down one, the bad minor suit breaks are enough to set this contract, one way or another.
But, back to the bidding. Considering the final result of the featured auction, it may seem strange for us to extol the featured E-W bidding, but we do rather like it, and it raises a couple of interesting points on the use of 4NT in these competitive auctions. For more on the subject, please see the Bidding Quiz, for the time being let us just say that, according to the E-W methods, West’s first Double was value-showing (4NT would have been Roman Key Card), and East’s 4NT was scrambling into the best suit.
Some Wests may bid a direct 4♠ with the West hand, our personal preference is to cue-bid 3♣ (limit raise or better), we think that the hand has too much defense for a 4♠ call. As for East, his 3♦ was ostensibly a game-try, though in actual fact his hand was too good to go to game directly. West then showed his true colors by rebidding 3♠ (rotten limit raise) and East gave up on any slam thoughts.
There’s nothing to the play, South cashes two Hearts right away and it’s 10 tricks for Declarer.
North was probably planning to rebid 4♠, but South beat her to the punch with that 4♥.
The play is straightforward, the defense cashes 3 Diamonds, and the hand comes down to the trump finesse (and a 3-2 break). Making 10 tricks.
What’s your upper range for overcalls? Some players say around 16 HCP’s (with more they double first), but that’s a bit low for our taste. North obviously felt likewise, overcalling with 18 HCP’s. When the bidding got back to North she could have doubled, but there seemed little point when East had already shown 4 Hearts, so North contented herself with a simple 2♠. And when West persevered with 3♦, North gave up, her 18-count was not that good (those unsupported Queens were dubious values).
How will the play in 3♦ go? North starts with Spades, and Declarer ruffs the third.round. The K♦ is ducked by North (good play!), then she wins the second round and perseveres with Spades (thanks to the A♦ duck, Dummy cannot ruff this, and Declarer must), then the last trump is drawn. Declarer has 9 tricks and can make 10 if he can guess the location of the Q♥. Will he? So far there are not enough clues to draw any solid conclusions. Declarer could cash A♣ and K♣ and ruff a Club, which would clarify the distribution and reveal that North started with 4 Hearts and is therefore more likely to hold the Q♥. But that Club ruff was dangerous, it used up Dummy’s last trump and risks the contract if the Q♥ is misguessed. So, North’s forcing defense pays dividends (or at least it makes Declarer’s life more difficult).
The standard responses to the Jacoby 2NT have been much maligned (including by us!) but they worked well enough in the featured auction. 3♣ showed shortness, then 3♦ and 3♥ and 4♥ were cue-bids. At this point, East could see that 7♠ would surely have a play if the trump suit was good enough, and so he used the Grand Slam Force to find out. With two of the top three North obliged with 7♠ and no doubt received a great matchpoint result for doing so.
We rather like South’s 1♥ opening (it just seems too good for a Weak Two in our opinion), but many (perhaps most) will prefer a 2♥ opening bid, it’s a matter of personal taste. But whatever South’s taste, 3NT by West seems the likely end-result.
Against 3NT, North lead a Heart to South’s Queen and Declarer ducks. Then another Heart won by Declarer’s Jack, at which point Declarer has 9 tricks, and is looking for a 10th. 4 Diamonds are cashed and South must decide what will be her last 7 cards. 4 Spades must be kept, together with either 2 Hearts and the A♣ or one Heart and Ax in Clubs. Declarer should have no trouble reading the position, he will reason that the A♣ is with South (for the opening bid), and the only reason to be pitching those Hearts is if she is guarding the Spades. So, he’ll figure South to have started with 4-6-1-2, and make 10 tricks whatever South keeps.
Bidding Post Script Why did East bid 2♦ rather than 2♥? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
Good bidding by South, we think. That 2♦ showed reverse values (notwithstanding the interference), and 4♥ offered a choice between 4♥ and 5♦.
4♥ is the only game that makes, though it is somewhat perilous, relying on good behavior by the Hearts. And 4♠ is a good sacrifice, escaping for -500.
There’s nothing like a little controversy with which to end a set of boards and that’s exactly what we have here. What would be your choice of opening bid with the West hand? We like 1NT despite the singleton Spade, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
Anyway, North chirps in with a DONT bid, and 2♠ is the final contract. East must have been tempted to make a sporting Double, and probably would have done if there were the upside of +200 from vulnerable opponents. The defense has various routes to six tricks and it looks as if 2♠ will be down one at most tables.
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