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Hand Analyses 10th October, 2007
North had three choices of rebid: - 3♦: North has good Diamonds, but only three of them, and that 5-3-3-2 shape is far from ideal. - 2NT: Show a minimum and balanced hand, but dangerous, perhaps, with two small Clubs. - 2♠: Some pairs play that, after a 2/1, a rebid of the major is “neutral”, meaning that it is the bid one makes when there is no good descriptive alternative available. As, such, the 2♠ rebid does not guarantee a 6-card suit. If the neutral 2♠ is available, then that would be a good choice.
Anyway, 4♠ looks like a normal spot, and whether East starts out with a Heart or a Club, the bad trump break beats the contract one trick. For example: Defense cashes two Clubs Declarer ruffs the third round of Clubs Spade to the Queen and West’s Ace Heart return (good play!) Now, Declarer must cash red winners, forcing West to ruff in at some point. When he does so, it will be his last trick (if a Club comes back, she’ll ruff high on the board and finesse the Spade). Getting out for down one will be a good result.
The defense can beat this contract two tricks if East finds the opening Diamond lead. Now, when West gets in with the A♠ he can underlead his A♣ twice to get two Diamond ruffs. Is this defense likely to happen in real life? Maybe. If North ever supports Diamonds, East will figure West to be short (void even) and may well start out with Diamonds. When in with the A♠, it’s a low Club to East’s Queen, and a low Diamond back for a ruff. The low Diamond is suit preference and tells West that Declarer did not misguess the Clubs and that East had KQ in the suit.
South leads the Q♥, won by North. Hearts are continued and ruffed on the board. Next, the K♠ and Q♠, getting the bad news. Now Declarer guesses the Club correctly and it turns out to be 11 tricks.
6♣ is not a terrible contract. Let’s say that North is on lead and starts with the A♥ and another Heart which is ruffed by Declarer. How would you play the Clubs? With the Heart length in the South hand it makes sense to play North for the Q♣. Which is better, do you think? - Cash the K♣, and then run the J♣? - Or, run the Jack immediately? If Clubs are 3-2 if won’t matter, this is all about the 4-1 breaks. If we cash the K♣ first, we’ll pick up a singleton Queen with South (just one possible holding). If we finesse immediately we can pick up Qxxx in the North hand, which is 4 possible holdings and therefore clearly superior.
Deep Finesse says that 8 tricks can be made in Spades on a Double Dummy basis. If the defense leads a Diamond (most reasonable on the auction), then Declarer can come to 8 tricks only with this well-timed series of plays: Diamond to West’s Ace Spade shift won by Declarer’s Ace A♣ and K♣ are cashed Club ruff K♦ is cashed A♥ is cashed Heart ruff At this point, Declarer has 7 tricks, and cannot be prevented from scoring two more in this end position: Declarer ♠ J6 ♥ ♦ J ♣ 54 West East ♠ K98 ♠ Q ♥ ♥ Q98 ♦ T ♦ Q ♣ T ♣ Dummy ♠ T ♥ T43 ♦ 9 ♣ Look what happens when Declarer leads a Club: - If East pitches a Heart, Dummy ruffs, and Declarer scores a 9th trick by leading a Heart. - If East ruffs, then Dummy pitches a Diamond. East now does best to play the Q♥, but to no avail, Declarer can still score the T♠ and J♠ separately.
Gone are the days when the opponents would routinely let us play in a cozy 4-4 fit at the two-level. Nowadays, someone usually finds some way to balance or pre-balance. And so it is here, South has both of the unbid suits in the balancing chair and, notwithstanding the vulnerability, chimes in with a Double. This turns out to be spot-on, and 2♠ makes 8 tricks.
West had a good hand for a Strong Jump Shift, but this pair was not using that method. 3♣ was game-forcing and (the way that many pairs play this) artificial, not necessarily with Clubs, being analogous to the New Minor Forcing convention after a 1NT rebid by Opener. Anyway, East does not have 3-card Heart support so he rebids his powerful Diamonds. And that 5♥ bid? It says “Bid slam if you have a control in Spades”.
That was a nice auction, even if it did absolutely guarantee a Spade lead and only 11 tricks.
Here E-W have no realistic option other than to sell out to 2♠. If West finds the inspired opening lead of the A♥, then the defense can take 3 Hearts, and the A♦, and can score a 5th trick when East leads the 4th round of Hearts for a trump promotion.
More likely, West will start out with the Q♣, won by Declarer’s King. Now, it’s A♠, K♠, and a Spade to the Jack, then Declarer knocks out the A♦. Having missed out on the trump promotion, the best that the defense can do now is 4 tricks, but even to achieve that East must keep his wits about him. Clearly he must shift to Hearts, but it must be a low Heart, otherwise the suit will block and one of Declarer’s Heart losers disappears on the 13th Diamond.
Normally, a 1NT rebid by opener shows 12-14 HCP’s (assuming a 15-17 range for the 1NT opening), but here Partner is silent, so 1NT shows 18-19.
2♥ will make with careful play: K♦ opening lead, won by Dummy’s Ace (no point in ducking this) Q♥ is led from the board, won by North’s King Diamond to South’s Ten Q♦ is cashed Q♣ shift is won by Dummy’s Ace A♠ and K♠ are cashed Declarer’s plan was to execute a Scissors Coup. He was always going to play the J♠ next, on which he would pitch a Club, cutting off the opponents from each other, and avoiding a trump upper-cut on the third round of Clubs. The surprise appearance of the Q♠ from North on the second round does not change things … North can ruff the J♠ on the third round, and Declarer still pitches away a Club. Making 8 tricks! It takes an opening Club lead and accurate defense thereafter to beat 2♥.
Against 3NT, South will no doubt lead her 4th best Spade to Declarer’s King. Declarer knocks out the A♥, the defense cashes its tricks, and it’s 9 tricks for Declarer.
We confess that we’d be tempted to open West’s “good 14” with a 15-17 1NT, based on the 5-card suit and the Aces and Tens. That will get 3NT played from the West side, and now North can dazzle the Vugraph audience by finding the spectacularly successful opening lead of the Q♠! This picks up the whole Spade suit, and sets the contract by one trick. If anybody asks what that opening lead was all about, North’s explanation might be “It was my 4th worst. Duh!”
South realized that she might just be digging a deeper hole for her side when she bid 3♥, but she tried it anyway. Against 3♥, West won’t have an obvious lead, and will probably start with a minor suit Ace: - If he leads the A♦, the defense continues with a Diamond ruff, A♣, a second Diamond ruff, after which the defense has two more tricks coming (either Clubs if Declarer draws trumps, or natural trump tricks if Declarer ruffs her Club losers). - If he leads the A♣, Declarer can escape for down one, as the second Diamond ruff is no longer a possibility.
Next, suppose that South does not venture 3♥, but instead lets Partner wallow in 2♠. That is likely to be down four, for example, Club to West’s Ace, Club ruff, A♥ and Q♥ are cashed, Diamond to West’s Ace, Spade through allowing East to cash 4 trump tricks, after which the defense runs Clubs until Declarer decides to take her remaining trump.
South’s hand is a good example of why they should rename the Rule of Twenty to the Guideline of Twenty. It may pass the Rule but it completely flunks the Law of Common Sense. Look at all those quacks, most of them in short suits. Of course, we have to admit that, as South, having passed, when the bidding gets back to us, we might be wishing that we had taken initial action. Anyway, South should summon up a Double of 3♦, and we think that North should pass, they being vulnerable and this being matchpoints.
3♦ is down one trick, a triumph for South’s initial sound Pass, and North’s final bold Pass. +200 will surely be a top, even though Deep Finesse tells us that 4♠ can make 10 tricks from the North side.
North had a couple of interesting choices on this auction. Over 1♠ she has the right hand-type for a No Trump bid, but should that bid be 1NT (6-10) or 2NT (11-12)? We think that North’s 10-count is very close to a 2NT bid, it has all those lovely fillers and a couple of Aces. On the downside, the shape is square and there is only one sure stopper in the enemy suit. But, change one of those low Spades to the Ten and we’d bid 2NT in a heartbeat. The second interesting choice for North came over 2♠. Yes, we like that Double, though it was somewhat speculative and though there would have been more upside if the opponents had been vulnerable.
Partnerships which habitually make close matchpoint Doubles must learn to defend accurately, and careful defense gets 2♠ down one trick for +100, not such a great reward for the risk of the Double: Club Eight, to the Nine and Jack, ruffed by Declarer Trump to North’s Ace Q♣, covered by the King and Ace, ruffed by Declarer Three rounds of trumps are drawn (everybody is now out of trumps) K♥ won by South’s Ace A Club is cashed, Declarer pitching a Diamond North exits a Diamond Now, with Declarer forced to play on Diamonds, it’s 3 more tricks to the defense and down one.
If E-W are playing that 1♦ 2♣ is not game-forcing, then that will be their start to the auction. Here, E-W were playing that 2♣ would be game-forcing, and that 3♣ is invitational. But, all roads lead to 3NT, usually played by West.
Against 3NT, North leads a Heart. Which one depends on the N-S methods, maybe the Eight (top of nothing or top of a sequence), maybe the Seven (second highest from four small). Either way, Dummy’s Ten is covered by the Jack and Ace. West cashes three top Diamonds (pitching a Club from Dummy on the third round), and when the suit fails to break, he turns his attention to Clubs. The T♣ is finessed and South must duck. Then another Club, won by South’s Ace. At this point South is down to major cards, and leading either one gives Dummy an entry to those Clubs. Declarer ends up scoring 2 major suit tricks, 3 Diamonds and 4 Clubs.
Not everybody will approve of that 1NT opening bid, and there’s certainly nothing wrong with opening 1♣ and making a comfortable rebid of 1♠. But, there is much to be said for opening 1NT against vulnerable opponents. South made a DONT Double, showing a one-suiter, West transferred to Spades, and East made some kind of a Super-Accept, showing 4 Spades.
South leads the A♥. North plays the 5♦. What does this mean? Usually, when defending a suit contract, if Dummy goes down with a singleton in the suit of the opening lead, that card is intended as suit preference. So, North plays the Heart Five at Trick One, it’s the best that she can do in the circumstances. It’s a high card and is attempting to convey the message “I have something in Diamonds, the higher ranking suit”. Considering the threatening Diamonds in Dummy, that would probably have to be KJ or better. If South is paying attention and shifts to a Diamond at Trick Two, the defense collects its three tricks. To see what happens if South continues with Hearts at Trick Two, please see the Play Problem.
The featured auction is discussed in the Bidding Quiz, in the meantime we’ll just say that 3♠ was a Splinter, 4♣ was Roman Key Card (Minorwood in this case), and therefore 4♠ showed 2 Key Cards without the Q♣. North could see one missing Key Card, and, considering the presumed 10-card fit (North would not have splintered with only 3-card Club support), she was not overly worried about the missing Q♣.
How does 6♣ do? Well, if trumps are 2-1 (which we can all see they are not) then 12 tricks are easy enough via 6 Clubs in Declarer’s hand, plus 4 side-suit tricks and a couple of Spade ruffs on the board. So, the two big questions become: (a) Can Declarer figure out who is most likely to have the trump length? (b) Having done so, how does Declarer still manage to come to 12 tricks?
The answers to these questions will depend on East’s opening lead: - If East leads a Spade (no good reason for that lead in our view), that will solve the 12th trick problem, and it will come down to the Club guess. Any clues as to who is more likely to have the 3 Clubs? Nothing substantial that we can see, so happy guessing! - If East lays down the A♥, again the 12th trick has been presented, but again no serious clues about the Club situation. Is East trying to grab his Ace in the hope that he’ll score the setting trick with his Qxx of Clubs? Maybe so, but people cash Aces against slams all the time, so not especially significant. - If East leads the Diamond Eight (but why?), Declarer will surely get things right. She’ll assume that this is a short suit lead, guess the Clubs correctly as a result, and eventually build the 12th trick in Diamonds. Anyway, commiserations to any pair who got to the fine Club slam and went down, they deserved a better fate.
West had a close choice between overcalling 2♦ and making a Takeout Double. Then, North had a close choice of her own, whether to support Spade (via a 3♦ cue-bid) or whether to show the general character of her hand by bidding 2NT. And, after South introduced Hearts, North had one more choice to make, whether or not to raise to game. Actually, we think that raising to game is clear, North does have a double fit for Partner and almost all of her points in those suits.
As it happens, both major fits produce 11 tricks, and it should be a good board for those N-S pairs that reach game.
Against 3♣, East will surely lead the K♥ after which Declarer can scamper to 10 tricks via a cross-ruff: K♥ lead won by Declarer’s Ace Concede a Diamond Q♥ is cashed Trump shift, won by Declarer A♠ is cashed Now, Declarer can merrily cross-ruff, scoring 3 side-suit tricks, a natural trump trick, and 6 ruffs.
Against 3NT, North leads a Spade, won by Declarer’s Ace. Now, the T♦ is successfully finessed, then a Diamond to the Queen, and a Heart to Declarer’s King (South must play low, of course, otherwise the whole Heart suit will set up and it will be 12 tricks for Declarer). At this point, Declarer can settle for 10 sure tricks by playing another high Heart, or he can try for more by playing on Clubs. Here’s what will happen: - 25% of the time both Club honors will be onside, and Declarer will score 11 tricks. - 50% of the time, the Club honors will be split, and Declarer will score 10 tricks. - 25% of the time, both Club honors will be offside, and Declarer will be down two. It turns out that this is not a good hand for being greedy!
System Note Some pairs use 2♦ (as well as 2♣) by a passed hand as the Drury convention, typically showing 4-card support for Partner’s major. If that were part of the E-W arsenal then we’d expect the auction to be: Pass 1♥, 1NT 2♦, 3♦ 3NT, Pass.
If South keeps silent, E-W will probably play this in 1NT, West’s poor 8-count not being good enough to make a game invitation. However, it’s a most friendly layout for E-W, and 9 or 10 tricks will materialize.
However, in today’s world, lots of players will not be able to resist interfering with the South hand (even at this vulnerability), especially the DONT brigade, who will weigh in with a 2♥ bid (showing Hearts and Spades). West will double and that will be the final contract. The West hand has slow tricks in Declarer’s second suit and this begs for a trump lead. The play will be painful for Declarer, perhaps something like this: Heart to East’s King A♥ is cashed Low Diamond to South’s Ace K♠ and A♠ are cashed Spade ruff A Diamond to West’s King Shift to the J♣! (not low) Club to East’s Queen Q♦ is played (not a Club) Now, East keeps cashing minor suit winners until Declarer ruffs and is overruffed. All that Declarer can manage is the Q♥, and that will be down three for -800. Nice defense by E-W, the keys being the opening lead of the trump, the shift to a low Diamond, and the subsequent playing of the minor winners in the right order. Well, done, but even a less accurate defense will get Declarer for 500 and that is enough to beat the few E-W pairs who bid the game.
North’s 3rd seat 1♥ was primarily for the lead, and the end-result will no doubt be 3♦ played by E-W, or 3♥ played North.
The cards are most favorably placed for N-S. If they end up declaring a Heart contract, they’ll make lucky 9 tricks, thanks to the well-behaved Hearts, the onside A♣ and Q♣, and the guess-proof Spades. Those well-placed cards (for N-S) will be unfortunately located for E-W if they declare 3♦, resulting in a likely down two and -200.
South’s 1♠ was natural and forcing, this pair using a 2♠ bid here for the purposes of Fourth Suit Forcing.
As West contemplates his opening lead, he will no doubt place South with 0-4-4-5 distribution, reckoning that if she were 1-4-4-4 she would have opened 1♦ (which gives her a 2♣ rebid if North responds 1♠). With that in mind, he won’t be leading a Spade, for fear of giving Declarer a finesse that she could not take herself. It hardly seems right to lead into their 4-4 Diamond suit, nor to attack Dummy’s 5-card suit. So, by a process of elimination, he might well lead a Heart. Dummy plays low, and East’s Queen wins the trick. Now, the play might go one of two ways: (a) East switches to a Spade, which makes things easy for Declarer. When the Q♠ holds the trick she can reasonably presume that East does not have both the high Clubs (that would be 13 HCP’s), so it must be safe to lead towards Dummy’s Clubs twice. This brings in 10 tricks (2 Spades, 3 Hearts, 4 Diamonds and a Club). (b) If East goes passive and continues with a Heart at Trick Two, then 10 tricks are harder to come by. In fact, the only way is for Declarer to run the 8♣, playing West for both the Ten and Nine. So, in practice, passive defense is likely to hold Declarer to 9 tricks.
Walsh Addendum Those pairs who play Walsh-style will respond 1♠ and the full auction may well be 1♣ 1♠, 2♥ 3NT, Pass. As usual, the Walsh auction is less informative, but it won’t help Declarer much on this board, no doubt West will start out with a Heart or a Diamond, and it will be 9 tricks provided that the defense resists the temptation to attack Spades.
Accurate defense beats 3♥ by two tricks: Club opening lead is won by West Diamond to East’s Queen A♦ is cashed Diamond ruff A Club is cashed. Now, on the third round of Club, Dummy is forced to ruff, and that promotes the 6th defensive trick when East’s Heart holding wins the third round of trumps. Pretty good defense, we’d expect down one to be a more likely result.
Some Souths might pass 2♥, correctly reasoning that game is unlikely, but we think it’s important to get that Spade suit into the auction, if only for the lead. Look what might happen if South does pass … West might reasonably take a shot at 3NT! At this point South will feel as sick as a dog at not having bid Spades (she does not know that Partner could not lead one anyway). 3NT is cold, of course.
N-S stumble into their marginal 4♥ game, and the defense starts out with a Club to the Ace and a second Club ruffed by Declarer. Next comes 3 rounds of trumps, ending in Declarer’s hand. Declarer must now play on Spades, and, with at least 4 of them on her left, her best shot is to run the Spade Ten, picking up the suit in all cases except when East has the singleton Jack. Of course, Declarer cannot lay down the A♠ first to cater for that singleton Jack, that would waste an entry and give up on the more common J9xx(x) with West. And, leading the Ten is superior to a first round finesse of the Eight, as that latter play fails against the singleton Nine.
Back to the bidding. Perhaps East’s 2♣ rebid was rather feeble, even though he has only 12 points he does have a magnificent suit and good playing strength. A rebid of 3♣ may well keep N-S out of game … South will probably pass (though 3♥ is tempting), North will balance, and South will satisfy herself with 3♥.
After South opens 1NT, it’s vaguely conceivable that there might be a slam, but rather unlikely, so North just bashes into 4♠ via a Texas Transfer. It won’t be obvious to West that he must lead a Diamond against 4♠, and, when he doesn’t, Declarer can set up the Clubs for a Diamond pitch and score 12 tricks instead of 11.
Consider this hand to be a triumph for Texas Transfers. If North had tried a 2♥ Jacoby Transfer instead (perhaps planning an optimistic slam try, or perhaps not having Texas available), then West will throw in a 3♦ bid, and that will be the end of any chance of Declarer making 12 tricks. When you know where you belong, it pays to get there quickly!
4♥ needs some luck to make, at least the onside A♦ and a 3-2 Heart break. The Hearts break OK, but the A♦ is offside, so this contract is going down. With East on lead, can the defense get it down two? He’ll start with the Q♦ and let us say that Declarer calls for a low card from Dummy. East should take the precaution of cashing the A♣ next, making life easier for Partner (who may not want to shift to Clubs holding the King), then another Diamond to the King and Ace, after which the K♣ and a Club ruff achieve the desired down two. Thoughtful defense by East, anticipating Partner’s potential problem.
2♥ is good for 8 tricks: Diamond to the Ace, Diamond to Dummy’s King, Heart to the Queen, A♥, Heart to the Jack, and a Spade to the Queen and East’s Ace. Now, in order to prevent the overtrick, the defense must shift to a Club before one of Declarer’s losers disappears on the 13th Club.
Back to the bidding. Perhaps West should have bid 2♦ over South’s Double. It’s only a 5-card suit, but it has good intermediates and West has a pretty decent hand. If West does bid 2♦, his Partner will compete to 3♦. How does that do? Poor North is virtually end-played at Trick One: - If she leads the Q♠ that hands Declarer a third trick in the suit. - Obviously, the A♥ blows a trick. - A Diamond lead helps Declarer because it puts him a tempo ahead in the race to establish the 13th Club before the defense can build a Spade trick (the first Spade lead must come from South). - A Club lead saves the guess for the Jack. We suppose that the most likely lead is the Q♠, and here’s what might happen: Q♠ won by Declarer Spade to Dummy’s Nine Diamond to the Queen and Ace J♦ won by South’s King Heart to North’s Queen A♥ is cashed Another Heart is ruffed by Declarer Now, Declarer is a Club guess away from 9 tricks. Will he guess right? Maybe he should reason that South is slightly more likely to have the J♣, on the grounds that her shape might conceivably be 3-4-2-4. A slender reason, perhaps.
East’s 8-count is not worth an invitation (no Aces, no Tens, and a weak 5-card suit), and, even if East got overly optimistic, West would decline.
On the lie of the cards, 9 tricks can be made. For example: Club to South’s Queen and Declarer’s Ace Heart to Dummy’s jack Losing Spade finesse North continues with a Club to Dummy’s King Spade won by North After this start, Declarer has an easy route to 9 tricks, via 2 Spades, 2 Hearts, a Diamond and 4 Clubs. It doesn’t help for North to switch to a red suit, as South has no entries.
Aggressive bidding by East, but he does have excellent controls, with the likelihood of a couple of Heart ruffs in Dummy. Against 4♠, South leads the Q♥, won by Declarer, who leads a Heart right back. Now, even if trumps are 3-1, it’s an easy matter to negotiate two Heart ruffs on the board.
It’s hard to predict what might happen in the bidding, all the more so as three of our featured players might have deviated from the above auction: - East might have dredged up a Negative Double over 2♦ (yes, it’s a bit much, but some players use the vulnerability as an excuse for anything!) - West might have balanced with a Double, it’s not ideal, but then neither was the actual choice of 2♦. When East passes the balancing Double, North is in -500 or -800 territory, but South will save the day with an SOS Redouble allowing her side to escape to Hearts. - South might not have balanced (she really should!) or might have chosen to balance with a Double.
A Heart contract plays rather well, making 9 tricks.
We think that 2♠ is plenty by West, considering the broken suit and the vulnerability. What does 3♥ mean? For partnerships playing the Good-Bad 2NT, it shows a constructive raise to 3♥, with a poorer hand that merely wanted to compete North would bid an artificial 2NT on the way to 3♥. South’s raise to 4♥ was reasonable, North certainly could have had a better hand.
With careful play, South can escape for down one (please see the Play Problem), which won’t be such a bad result as West makes 9 tricks in Spades.
The most interesting bidding hand of the week! We like West’s 3♦ in third seat with that fine 6-card suit and nice distribution. East did well to raise to 5♦, furthering the preempt and making life most difficult for the opponents. South’s Double showed some values, and North must have been tempted to pass (the number would be 800 if the defense gets their Spade ruff). But, instead, she bid 5NT, intended as pick-a-slam. This bid could have been based on a black two-suiter, so it would be a mistake for South to choose 6♥ … instead, she tries 6♣, reaching the lower-scoring slam, but still good enough for a decent board. All four of the featured protagonists bid well, we think, please see the Bidding Quiz.
That cheeky 3♥ escaped a Double, and East had good reason to think that he could get away with this bid. Please see the Bidding Quiz.
3♥ can be set two tricks, but it requires the highly optimistic opening lead of the K♠ (or the bizarre underlead of the A♣ followed by a Spade switch) to achieve this. This allows the defense to start with two Spades and a Spade ruff, then the A♣, and the Q♣. Now, North leads a 4th round of Spades, and, although Declarer can ruff this high, he still has a losing Diamond finesse in his future. Even so, surely Declarer will make 8 tricks at most tables, a good result (even if doubled) considering that 3♣ is an easy 9 tricks.
If North was thinking about one of those shaded 14-point 1NT opening bids then she was no doubt deterred by that doubleton KQ of Spades, a definite minus factor. But, either way, it looks as if North will end up as Declarer in 3NT, and it’s all up to East’s opening lead. Would you lead a low Spade or the 9♣? A low Spade might work, for example Partner might have three of them (with the opposing Spades 2-2) but this is something of a long shot. With this entryless hand, Dr Goodlead found the killing Club lead in less than a millisecond, and so, we are sure, did you.
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