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Hand Analyses 10th October, 2007
North had three choices of rebid: - 3♦: North has good Diamonds, but only three of them, and that 5-3-3-2 shape is far from ideal. - 2NT: Show a minimum and balanced hand, but dangerous, perhaps, with two small Clubs. - 2♠: Some pairs play that, after a 2/1, a rebid of the major is “neutral”, meaning that it is the bid one makes when there is no good descriptive alternative available. As, such, the 2♠ rebid does not guarantee a 6-card suit. If the neutral 2♠ is available, then that would be a good choice.
Anyway, 4♠ looks like a normal spot, and whether East starts out with a Heart or a Club, the bad trump break beats the contract one trick. For example: Defense cashes two Clubs Declarer ruffs the third round of Clubs Spade to the Queen and West’s Ace Heart return (good play!) Now, Declarer must cash red winners, forcing West to ruff in at some point. When he does so, it will be his last trick (if a Club comes back, she’ll ruff high on the board and finesse the Spade). Getting out for down one will be a good result.
The defense can beat this contract two tricks if East finds the opening Diamond lead. Now, when West gets in with the A♠ he can underlead his A♣ twice to get two Diamond ruffs. Is this defense likely to happen in real life? Maybe. If North ever supports Diamonds, East will figure West to be short (void even) and may well start out with Diamonds. When in with the A♠, it’s a low Club to East’s Queen, and a low Diamond back for a ruff. The low Diamond is suit preference and tells West that Declarer did not misguess the Clubs and that East had KQ in the suit.
South leads the Q♥, won by North. Hearts are continued and ruffed on the board. Next, the K♠ and Q♠, getting the bad news. Now Declarer guesses the Club correctly and it turns out to be 11 tricks.
6♣ is not a terrible contract. Let’s say that North is on lead and starts with the A♥ and another Heart which is ruffed by Declarer. How would you play the Clubs? With the Heart length in the South hand it makes sense to play North for the Q♣. Which is better, do you think? - Cash the K♣, and then run the J♣? - Or, run the Jack immediately? If Clubs are 3-2 if won’t matter, this is all about the 4-1 breaks. If we cash the K♣ first, we’ll pick up a singleton Queen with South (just one possible holding). If we finesse immediately we can pick up Qxxx in the North hand, which is 4 possible holdings and therefore clearly superior.
Deep Finesse says that 8 tricks can be made in Spades on a Double Dummy basis. If the defense leads a Diamond (most reasonable on the auction), then Declarer can come to 8 tricks only with this well-timed series of plays: Diamond to West’s Ace Spade shift won by Declarer’s Ace A♣ and K♣ are cashed Club ruff K♦ is cashed A♥ is cashed Heart ruff At this point, Declarer has 7 tricks, and cannot be prevented from scoring two more in this end position: Declarer ♠ J6 ♥ ♦ J ♣ 54 West East ♠ K98 ♠ Q ♥ ♥ Q98 ♦ T ♦ Q ♣ T ♣ Dummy ♠ T ♥ T43 ♦ 9 ♣ Look what happens when Declarer leads a Club: - If East pitches a Heart, Dummy ruffs, and Declarer scores a 9th trick by leading a Heart. - If East ruffs, then Dummy pitches a Diamond. East now does best to play the Q♥, but to no avail, Declarer can still score the T♠ and J♠ separately.
Gone are the days when the opponents would routinely let us play in a cozy 4-4 fit at the two-level. Nowadays, someone usually finds some way to balance or pre-balance. And so it is here, South has both of the unbid suits in the balancing chair and, notwithstanding the vulnerability, chimes in with a Double. This turns out to be spot-on, and 2♠ makes 8 tricks.
West had a good hand for a Strong Jump Shift, but this pair was not using that method. 3♣ was game-forcing and (the way that many pairs play this) artificial, not necessarily with Clubs, being analogous to the New Minor Forcing convention after a 1NT rebid by Opener. Anyway, East does not have 3-card Heart support so he rebids his powerful Diamonds. And that 5♥ bid? It says “Bid slam if you have a control in Spades”.
That was a nice auction, even if it did absolutely guarantee a Spade lead and only 11 tricks.
Here E-W have no realistic option other than to sell out to 2♠. If West finds the inspired opening lead of the A♥, then the defense can take 3 Hearts, and the A♦, and can score a 5th trick when East leads the 4th round of Hearts for a trump promotion.
More likely, West will start out with the Q♣, won by Declarer’s King. Now, it’s A♠, K♠, and a Spade to the Jack, then Declarer knocks out the A♦. Having missed out on the trump promotion, the best that the defense can do now is 4 tricks, but even to achieve that East must keep his wits about him. Clearly he must shift to Hearts, but it must be a low Heart, otherwise the suit will block and one of Declarer’s Heart losers disappears on the 13th Diamond.
Normally, a 1NT rebid by opener shows 12-14 HCP’s (assuming a 15-17 range for the 1NT opening), but here Partner is silent, so 1NT shows 18-19.
2♥ will make with careful play: K♦ opening lead, won by Dummy’s Ace (no point in ducking this) Q♥ is led from the board, won by North’s King Diamond to South’s Ten Q♦ is cashed Q♣ shift is won by Dummy’s Ace A♠ and K♠ are cashed Declarer’s plan was to execute a Scissors Coup. He was always going to play the J♠ next, on which he would pitch a Club, cutting off the opponents from each other, and avoiding a trump upper-cut on the third round of Clubs. The surprise appearance of the Q♠ from North on the second round does not change things … North can ruff the J♠ on the third round, and Declarer still pitches away a Club. Making 8 tricks! It takes an opening Club lead and accurate defense thereafter to beat 2♥.
Against 3NT, South will no doubt lead her 4th best Spade to Declarer’s King. Declarer knocks out the A♥, the defense cashes its tricks, and it’s 9 tricks for Declarer.
We confess that we’d be tempted to open West’s “good 14” with a 15-17 1NT, based on the 5-card suit and the Aces and Tens. That will get 3NT played from the West side, and now North can dazzle the Vugraph audience by finding the spectacularly successful opening lead of the Q♠! This picks up the whole Spade suit, and sets the contract by one trick. If anybody asks what that opening lead was all about, North’s explanation might be “It was my 4th worst. Duh!”
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