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Hand Analyses 3rd October, 2007
As a 5-card majorite, how do you like South’s 3rd seat opening bid of 1♠? We like it just fine, if we are going to open light in 3rd seat with a 4-card suit, let’s at least bid a good suit. Notwithstanding that, it seems likely that West will end up as Declarer in Hearts. If, as N-S, you let them play in 2♥, then this was not your finest hour, you really had to find a way to push them up to the 3-level, either via a light 3rd seat opening, or some balancing action.
We wish we could announce that those N-S pairs who got in there and got their opponents to 3-level (where N-S could defend the perilous 3♥) were rewarded with a plus score. But no, 3♥ scrapes up 9 tricks thanks to 3-2 breaks in both the red suits and the onside A♥. So, style points only, we regret to say.
Let’s say that 2♦ was game-forcing. In that case, North’s raise to 3♥ was not only forcing, but also stronger than a direct 4♥. Yes, it’s the Principle of Fast Arrival in action. At this point in the proceedings, with both partners in possession of substantial extras, somebody eventually needs to assume control and guide this auction into the right slam. Who should be taking charge here? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
No prizes for taking 13 tricks on this one, hopefully they were No Trump tricks.
Against 4♥, a Club lead holds Declarer to 10 tricks, but surely North will lead her Partner’s Diamond suit. Can Declarer now manage 11 tricks? Please see the Play Problem.
The fate of this 3NT contract hinges on the opening lead. It looks like a choice between the attacking low Diamond and the safer T♥. It turns out that the safe lead is the winner, catching Partner with the perfect holding and holding Declarer to a paltry 7 tricks. Dr Goodlead thought it was a close choice between the two leads and eventually guessed wrong, opting for a Diamond and ending his winning streak at 5. Alas for the defense a Diamond lead is quite disastrous, giving Declarer his 8th trick right away. Declarer will go after his 9th trick right away (before running the Clubs) by leading a low Spade towards the Queen at trick 2. North grabs her K♠, but now Declarer has his 9th, and when Spades are 3-3 it’s 10 tricks.
An Astonishingly Devious False Card! It’s obvious to assume that Declarer will win that opening Diamond lead with one of his intermediate cards, but it might be fun to win with the King! Not only fun but potentially profitable too. Here are the two possibilities that Declarer is envisaging as he casully plays the K♦ at Trick One: (a) South has the K♠, which takes Dummy’s Queen. A Diamond comes back, Declarer playing the Seven, won by North’s Queen. South’s return of the Diamond Six might be somewhat strange from JT96, so North should smell a rat. But maybe she’ll already be in the mind-set that the Diamonds are running and continue the suit. She’ll be quite right, of course, the Diamonds are indeed running, but it’s Declarer’s Diamonds! (b) North has the K♠ and pops up with it at Trick Two. North should cash a high Diamond first, and when South plays the Six, she’ll no doubt assume that her Partner started with JT986 and persist with the suit, and that would be 10 tricks without requiring the Spade break. Another possibility is that North underleads one or both of his Diamond honors, giving Declarer a mirthful 11 tricks!
That K♦ looks to us like a risk-free false-card to us. But, if North is not a trusting soul, she might see through the ruse by counting up the HCP’s. If Declarer really is trying to sneak a Spade trick with the Diamonds wide open then he cannot have more than 8 tricks, and that would give him the A♠, A♥, K♦, and K♣. That’s 14 HCP’s, where’s the 15th? If it’s a major suit Jack, then Declarer had a legitimate play for 9 by simply taking a major suit finesse. So, perhaps the 15th point is the J♦. Then again, which is more likely, a bizarre false card or a 14-point 1NT?
West’s 2♠ bid was Fourth Suit Forcing, and the jump to 3NT showed some extras with Spades well controlled. As East did not open 1NT, West can reasonably deduce that Partner is short in Diamonds, which is not good news opposite KQJT2. This thought should be enough to persuade West not to pursue a Club slam.
There’s nothing to the play in this one, all roads lead to 11 tricks for Declarer.
When Dummy goes down, Declarer can see that there is some work to be done. There are 4 trump tricks plus a ruff in one hand or the other, and there are 3 Club tricks. The remaining two tricks must come from Spades and/or Diamonds. It looks to us that the best line of play on this tricky little hand is: Win the Q♣ on the board Cash A♥ Heart to the King Cash A♣ and K♣ pitching Diamonds Spade finesse, losing to the Ace Now, Declarer has a trump entry to his hand for a second Spade finesse, and with the A♦ onside he’ll rack up 11 lovely tricks. Declarer was right to get those Diamonds away on the Clubs before taking the Spade finesse, the 6-2 Club break was the bad news, but fortunately the Club shortness was also with the trump shortness. And Declarer also did well to draw just two rounds of trumps before playing on Spades, ensuring that he had an entry back to hand for a second Spade finesse.
Against 3♣, South leads the K♠ won by Declarer, who has two reasonable lines of play: (a) He can go after three Spade ruffs on the board, hoping that the suit is 4-4. The trouble with this line of play is that if South ruffs the 4th round of Spades in front of Dummy, Declarer will be out of entries to the board and will have to play the Diamonds from his hand, eventually losing the Spade ruff and two or three Diamonds. (b) Or, he ruff just two Spades on the board, and use his last sure entry to lead a Diamond towards his hand, which will not be a success if the A♦ is offside and Spades were 4-4 all the time.
Declarer has a rather neat Discovery Play available. He ruffs a Spade then leads the K♥ from the board! Declarer is going to ruff this anyway, he merely wants North to tell him where the A♥ is. If South fails to cover the K♥ then surely the Ace is with South, and therefore the A♦ must be with North (otherwise South would have opened the bidding). This clever play points the way for Declarer, he’ll ruff the Heart, ruff another Spade, and lead a Diamond from the board. North plays the Ace (South unblocking the Nine, just in case). Now, it turns out to be 11 tricks thanks to the Q♦ coming down.
Initially, N-S probably felt pretty pleased with themselves, getting into the auction, finding their 10-card fit and a non-vulnerable save. Unfortunately for N-S the save is a phantom, as 4♥ goes down a trick. On this occasion, it turns out that North would have done better to be less active in the bidding and those who favor sounder overcalls can allow themselves a smug smile on this one.
South might well lead her singleton Heart, won by Declarer. A losing Spade finesse and a Heart ruff will follow, after which the fate of the contract will depend on Declarer’s ability to find the J♦. Declarer will reason that, as South started with only 4 major suit cards compared with North’s 7, South has more room in her hand for Diamonds. This logic works well and it’s 10 tricks.
Back to the opening lead. If Declarer reasons that the Heart is a likely singleton, would he do better to eschew the Spade finesse, playing the A♠ on the first round, then another Spade, hoping to reduce the chances of a Heart ruff? Not necessarily, South might have the Kxx in trumps and North the A♦, so that line lets South get a ruff which would have otherwise been unavailable.
Back on Board 4, North was on lead against 3NT and discovered (perhaps the hard way) that the safe lead worked out best. If South follows the same plan and leads the Q♠, she’ll discover that this time it’s the aggressive (minor suit) lead that’s the winner. After the Q♠ opening lead can scrape up 7 tricks via 2 Spades, 3 Hearts and the minor Aces.
However, if South leads a minor it will be only 5 tricks, as Declarer does not have the timing to set up the Spades, nor does he have the entries to develop both a Spade trick and a third Heart trick.
It’s far from obvious, at least to us, that a minor suit opening lead is correct, we’d probably lead a Spade, as did Dr Goodlead, who thereby extended his new (losing) streak to two.
South’s first Double was conventional, the Support Double showing 3-card support for Partner’s Hearts. South’s second Double was not made in the expectation of a big juicy penalty, it was merely intended to discourage North from pushing on to the 5-level.
Against 4♠ doubled, once again the opening lead is crucial. If South has the misfortune to lead the Q♦ (why not?), then Declarer wins the Ace and leads a Spade to South’s Ace. South can give her Partner a Diamond ruff, but she’s ruffing a loser and now Declarer is just a Club guess away from making his contract. Will he guess correctly? He may not have enough clues from the play to guess with any certainty, especially if North craftily leads a low Club after getting her Diamond ruff, putting Declarer to the test early in the play, before more clues can be gathered.
4♥ makes 10 tricks, with a loser in each of the side-suits.
West’s Double showed some extras and no clear action, very much cooperative. East was happy enough to pass, he had a little extra, and something in the trump suit. Alas for our aggressive E-W pair, 2♠ turns out to be cold. The A♣ is onside for Declarer, and there is no way to stop Dummy from scoring a Club ruff on the board. So E-W’s bold enterprise results in -670. Even so, we’d rate their actions as quite reasonable, just unlucky.
We don’t normally recommend a high-level preempt with an outside Ace, but Partner is a passed hand so some latitude is given. North did well to nudge the auction one level higher, and 5♦ doubled is the final contract. That’s 9 tricks for Declarer, and down two is a good save against the E-W vulnerable game.
How many tricks can E-W make in Spades. There are two red Aces to be lost, and the defense can promote a trump trick if they force West to ruff the second round of Diamonds.
East had some interesting choices on this auction, which we cover in some detail in the Bidding Quiz. Our featured East guessed right when he tried 6♠, and South had a profitable save in 7♣, which is down 4 doubled for -800. But who can blame South for taking her chances on defense?
It’s a rare occasion when we decline to complete an auction. Our featured auctions, remember, are not necessarily how we think that things should go, and more likely to be how they might go. Or, we might throw in a sequence which leads to an interesting bidding or play situation. On this particular board, we have declined to map out East’s strategy because we can think of no fewer than four different plans that East might reasonably select. We unhesitatingly nominate this one for the week’s award as “The Best Hand for a Spirited Discussion in the Bar After the Game”. Or, if you prefer, please see the Bidding Quiz.
The next question is “What can E-W actually make?” 3NT is a hopeless contract, and even if North finds the non-threatening Heart lead, the defense will still have the timing to set up their 5th trick before Declarer can get the Spades going. How about 4♠? This contract will probably make, the only to beat it being the unlikely opening lead of a Club, which, with careful play for the defense, can set up a Club ruff as the 4th defensive trick.
North couldn’t bear to sell out to 3♦ with such a shapely hand and with shortness in the enemy suit, so she ventured a Responsive Double, after which South had nowhere to go but 3♠.
The play in 3♠ is most instructive. West starts out with a Diamond, and on the second round Declarer will … er, yes, what will Declarer do? This will no doubt be her thinking: - The play in the Diamonds marks East with the Ace and King, so surely West has the A♠. - If Declarer ruffs the second round of Diamonds, then loses the A♠, West will persevere with Diamonds, and if Declarer ruffs and the trumps are 4-1 she will have lost control. - One solution is not to ruff the third round of Diamonds, but to pitch a Heart, using one of Dummy’s trumps to ruff the fourth round of the suit. The trouble with this, of course, is that it will establish a trump suit for West if trumps are 4-1.
The solution is simple enough. Declarer pitches a Heart loser on the second round of Diamonds, and ruffs the 3rd round of the suit. Now, when the A♠ is lost to West, he has no Diamonds to return. So, the trump suit is picked up, and when the Clubs cooperate it will be no fewer than 10 tricks. We are used to hold-up plays in No Trump contracts, here we see how one can work in a suit contract.
2♠ is a miserable contract indeed, thanks to the 5-1 trump break, the 4-1 Clubs and the offside K♦. Getting a 6th trick in this contract will be an accomplishment. Moving right along.
North’s 3NT in this situation means different things to different folks, here North was showing 13-15 HCP’s without a Heart fit. We certainly don’t see much point in introducing those feeble Clubs when there is a good alternative available.
Against 3NT, East leads the Spade Ten, won by Declarer. The A♥ is knocked out, and East returns a low Spade, maintaining communications with Partner. Now, when the Hearts don’t split, Declarer has no way to score more than 9 tricks.
One small point in the play. Declarer should win the opening lead in her hand with the King (or Queen), rather than play the Jack from the board. This might persuade a gullible and optimistic East to lay down the A♠ (after winning the A♥) in the vain hope of catching North with KQ doubleton. This would not be good play by East who should be wondering why West would play the Four from 6543 on the first trick. Whether that card was intended as count or attitude, surely West would play his highest or lowest, and not the in-between Four.
West’s Double was DONT, conventionally showing a one-suited hand, and East’s 2♣ asked Partner what was his suit. Sensible bidding by West, with 6-4 in the majors it would not be advisable for West to show a major two-suiter.
Playing in Hearts, it may appear that West has just 4 losers, but he is an entry short of making 9 tricks. Declarer needs to lead Spades from the board twice, and to lead Hearts once, but has only two entries to the board. So, provided that the defense steadfastly refuses to lead Spades at any time, 8 tricks will be the limit.
It’s easy enough to imagine various auctions on this one, with the final contract being 4♠ played by East, or 3NT from either side.
If East plays in 4♠ he cannot avoid the loss of the A♣ and a trump, and the question is whether he can muster up 11 tricks. The first 10 are easy enough, via 4 Spade tricks, one Heart, 3 Diamonds and 2 Clubs. Let’s assume that South’s opening lead is the T♣ (for want of better), and that North takes her Ace and returns a Diamond. Declarer has various ways to go for an 11th trick: (a) If the Clubs are 4-3 then the long Club will be the 11th trick. So, Dummy wins the Diamond shift on the board, cashes just one high Club, then leads a low Club. North shows out , and Declarer must look elsewhere for the extra trick. (b) Now Declarer can rely on the Heart finesse for the 11th trick. (c) Alternatively, he might try ruffing a Diamond on the board, probably the better chance, as an overruff by North might well be at the expense of a natural defensive trump trick. So, after the Club ruff, Declarer cashes the K♠ and A♠, ruffs a Diamond, and cashes the high Club, pitching the Q♥ from hand.
West showed some restraint in the bidding, which was just as well, because even making 3♠ is not easy. Please see the Play Problem.
North may have silently gulped when South passed her Negative Double, no doubt wondering where an earth the defensive tricks were coming from. Of course, South would not have passed at any other vulnerability, as the chances of getting 1♠ down enough tricks to beat a vulnerable game were quite remote.
As it happened, N-S cannot make game, but with good defense they can score 500 from defending 1♠ doubled. Here is how the play could develop: North leads a Club to South’s Ace Club Three (suit preference), ruffed by North Diamond switch, low from Dummy, to North’s Ace, Declarer unblocking the Jack Q♣ ruffed with Declarer’s Ten Spade to South’s Queen Now, Declarer can escape for down one as one of the Heart losers goes away on a Diamond. What went wrong? Either defender could have been a star on the board: - South could have ducked the first round of Diamonds, cutting off the Dummy, and ensuring that Declarer will eventually wind up with two Heart losers. - North could have made the truly spectacular return (after the Club ruff) of the Q♦! Quite a play, blocking the suit and ensuring that there will be no second Diamond trick for Declarer.
In first chair, what would have been your plan with the South hand? We can think of three quite reasonable approaches, none of them especially appetizing: - Pass is a possibility, but the hand does pass the Rule of Twenty, and furthermore it’s hard to pass a hand with Ace-Ace-King. - South might consider opening 1♣ and then rebidding 1NT. The downside of that is that South will have opened light based on her distribution, and then declined to show that distribution. - The third possibility is to bid the minors “backwards”, starting with the 4-card Diamonds, then showing the 5-card Clubs. The danger here is that Responder might go back to Diamonds when the hand really belongs in Clubs.
Nothing is ideal, and our featured South chose the last (but not necessarily the least) of the three evils.
Surely, at most tables, West will declare a Spade partial. North leads a Diamond and that gives Declarer his 9th trick. With trumps 2-2 he can score 5 Spades, two Heart ruffs on the board, a Diamond and a Club. If North is sufficiently inspired to find the opening lead of a trump, Declarer must work harder for that 9th trick. He can win the Spade on the board and lead a Diamond (South might well have AK), and when North’s King takes Declarer’s King, another Spade comes back Now, it’s A♣, ruff a Club, after which Declarer has two ruffing entries to the board … one to take the ruffing Club finesse, the other to get back and enjoy the established Club.
East could have handled his hands in an assortment of different ways, depending on the partnership methods. For more on the possibilities, please see the Bidding Quiz.
How about the West auction? He chose not to rebid 3♠, preferring not to give up on the Heart suit. Then, after Partner had rebid 3♣ he went back to 3♠. This was intended as a constructive move rather than as an escape from 3♣. At this point, East had nothing to say and 3♠ was the final contract.
3♠ will be held to 9 tricks with accurate defense, but there is the chance that a defensive error might allow a 10th trick. To start with, let’s suppose that N-S are playing “3rd and 5th” opening leads against suit contracts. North leads the Diamond Three, and that is clearly from a 3-card suit. Declarer has at least 6 Spades and 4 Hearts, and apparently 2 Diamonds, so what could be simpler for South than to cash a second Diamond, then the A♣, and to exit with a trump. Now the defense waits for whatever Heart tricks are coming their way, and that will be just 9 tricks for Declarer.
That was pretty easy for the defense, wouldn’t you say? Sure it was, but next let us suppose that N-S play 4th best leads against suits. North still feels the need to lead a Diamond, and again she starts out with the Three. This could be a 4th best lead. Or it could be a 3rd best lead, using the irrefutable logic that you simply cannot lead 4th best from a three-card suit? Now, poor South has a chance to go wrong. She would hate to play a second high Diamond at Trick Two, have it ruffed, see Declarer draw trumps, and get to the board with a Club, eventually scoring 10 tricks one way or the other.
If your partnership plays 4th best leads against suit contracts and has ever wondered whether it should switch to 3rd and 5th best leads then study this hand carefully! And allow us to respectfully suggest that you consider changing.
Perhaps that 3NT by South was a tad aggressive, she doesn’t have the world’s best 9-count by any stretch of the imagination. But, we’ve seen worse. Next question. Suppose that South had chosen merely to invite to 3NT. Should North accept? 16 HCP’s is usually enough, but here North has a square hand and an alarming absence of Tens, so we could go either way on this one.
Based on our analysis of the bidding it comes as no surprise that this is a perilous contract! After East’s opening Diamond lead, it’s easy enough, looking at all 4 hands, to see that the winning line is to play on Spades early, and then to score 2 Spades, a Heart, 4 Diamonds and 2 Clubs, when the hand with the long Spades turns out to have no entries. Single dummy this hand is far less clear, and it’s easy to see how 3NT might go down (for example, by hoping for 2 Heart tricks).
This time South is good value for her invitational raise, just 8 HCP’s but a sprinkling of fillers and a promising 5-card suit, and perhaps North should have accepted. Even though she has a minimum in terms of HCP’s she does have three Aces and a 5-card suit with fillers.
East leads the Diamond Nine, at which point, looking at all 4 hands, it’s easy enough to see that Declarer has 8 tricks, via two black Aces and 3 tricks in each red suit. But Declarer won’t know that the Clubs are so unfriendly and that the Hearts are so obliging, and a fiendish false-card from West might lure Declarer to her doom: East starts with the Diamond Nine to the Jack, Queen, Ace The Club Eight is run around to West’s King (tricky defense!) Spade shift to East’s Jack East reverts to Diamonds, won on the board Heart finesse, losing to East’s King Diamond continuation West’s false-card may have persuaded Declarer that the Club suit should be her source of tricks, in which case she might pitch a Heart on the third round of Diamonds and take another Club finesse for down one. Credit West for giving Declarer a losing option, but that was poor play by Declarer … on the third Diamond she should pitch a Spade from Dummy, cash the Q♥, cross to the A♥, after which she can see her 8 tricks without the dangerous repeat finesse in Clubs.
North’s 2♣ was DONT, showing Clubs and another suit. After that, there are two questions to be answered: - What are your methods after they interfere over 1NT? - How do you evaluate the East hand, is it worth an invitation to game?
Our featured E-W were playing that a Double of 2♣ would be Stayman, and that the rest of their NT system was on. Therefore, 2♥ was a transfer to Spades, and East decided that 2♠ was high enough, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
There’s nothing in the play of the hand, Declarer has 9 tricks with no prospect of more or less.
Against 3♠, East leads the Q♥. How do you rate Declarer’s chances? Things look somewhat grim, we’d say. There are 3 obvious side-suit tricks, and it seems unlikely that any more can be developed. That means that Declarer needs at least 6 trump tricks. One possibility is that East has Queen doubleton of Spades, which would permit two Heart ruffs on the board (West cannot overruff) and 4 trump tricks in Declarer’s hand. If that is the case, Declarer ends up losing 4 Diamond tricks and nothing else. But there’s no rush to take the Hearts ruffs on the board, and here is a line of play which produces the 9th trick in a surprising fashion: Q♥ opening lead is won by Declarer’s Ace Club to Dummy’s Ace Diamond from the board, won by West’s Ace Spade shift, won by Declarer’s Ace K♥ is cashed Heart ruffed by Dummy’s Jack
Here is the end-position: Declarer ♠ K93 ♥ 5 ♦ JT5 ♣ West East ♠ 7 ♠ Q6 ♥ ♥ JT ♦ Q63 ♦ K9 ♣ QJ8 ♣ K Dummy ♠ T8 ♥ ♦ 7 ♣ 9762 The remaining Diamond is led from Dummy, and the defense is caught in a dilemma: - If West plays low on this trick, East wins, but he cannot continue trumps without sacrificing his trump winner. But, if East does not continue trumps, then Dummy gets three ruffs. - If West boldly jumps up with the Queen (some play!) and continues trumps, then Declarer wins the King, ruffs out the K♦, ruffs a Club, and plays her good Diamond. That’s 9 tricks, once again.
Nicely timed play by Declarer! It wasn’t essential to visualize the end-position, all that Declarer had to do was to play on Diamonds early and see what developed. The original hope was three ruffs in Dummy, what actually materialized was something more exotic!
North’s 4♥ showed a self-sufficient suit, and her response to Roman Key Card showed 2 Key Cards with the Q♥. At this point, from the South seat, 6♣ looked like the safest contract, but she reasonably went for the higher-scoring 6♥, hoping that Partner’s Hearts were as good as they should be, and that there were no bad breaks lurking.
North’s Hearts were indeed up to the task and that was 12 easy tricks, 13 if East fails to cash the A♦ on the go, which we think he should, the auction suggests that Declarer will have an abundance of tricks when she gains the lead.
North’s exuberance in the balancing seat gets her into trouble on this one when East makes a speculative Double of 2♥. West leads a Club, and provided that the defense stops the Club ruff on the board, they will score a Spade, 2 trumps, A♦ and 3 Clubs, for down two and a juicy +300 for N-S.
A spirited auction, especially by North. That 2♠ was a Michaels Cue-Bid, showing Hearts and a minor, and East’s 4♠ was preemptive, typically showing 5-card support, a weak hand, and, ideally, shortness somewhere. North no doubt remembered the old mantra “Six-five, come alive!” because, notwithstanding the vulnerability, she tried 5♦. When South corrected to 5♥ it looked like an early Christmas present to West.
Remarkably, 5♥ can escape for down only one, though it’s something of a double dummy line of play, we think. There are numerous variations in the play, here is just one of them: Q♠ opening lead, ruffed by Declarer Club to West’s Ace A♠ is ruffed by Declarer’s Ten (necessary!) A♦ is cashed High Club is cashed J♣ is ruffed by East Spade to Dummy’s King, Declarer pitching a Diamond 9♥ which holds the trick (thanks to earlier unblock of the Ten) K♦, which is ruffed and overruffed Club, ruffed by West Spade ruffed on the board. Now, the last trump is drawn and Declarer has a good Club left.
East showed 18-19 with that 2NT rebid, and West fell in love with all those fillers and raised to game. The hands don’t fit well together, this contract is going down at least one trick.
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