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Hand Analyses 19th September, 2007
Against 3NT, South leads a 4th best Spade, won by Dummy’s Queen. Now, the A♠ is knocked out, and one of two things will happen: - Either, South will be afraid to continue Spades, fearing that Declarer started with three in the suit. In that case, she will shift to the J♣ which will be ducked, then another Club won by Declarer’s Ace. With the Clubs seemingly 6-2, it’s safe for Declarer to take the Heart finesse, and that’s 11 tricks for Declarer and a good board. - Or, South will persevere with Spades, in which case the Heart finesse (into the hand with good Spades) is dangerous indeed, and Declarer will probably settle for 9 tricks.
Perhaps North should throw in a Club bid along the way. Now, South’s opening lead against 3NT will likely be the J♣, ducked by Declarer. North can set up the third trick for the defense with a Spade shift, or she can persevere with Clubs, allowing Declarer to take the safe Heart finesse, and score 11 tricks.
North’s 2♠ said “I have an invitational hand with 4 Spades (and not 4 Hearts)”, and South, naturally enough, signed off in 2NT. West has no attractive lead and will probably try a low Club. That works just fine, and the best that Declarer can do is to score 3 Hearts, 2 Diamonds, and 2 Clubs, for a total of 7 tricks, and down one.
West’s rebid showed 15-17 HCP’s and stops in the unbid suits. Against 3NT North leads the K♦, and Declarer carefully untangles her tricks … A♦, K♠, A♥, A♠, Q♣, J♣, etc. This leads to 9 top tricks for Declarer, and that suddenly becomes 13 when the Q♥ is doubleton.
A No Trump slam is a very poor proposition, requiring one defender or the other to hold Q♥ doubleton (about a 16% chance) if the defense leads a Diamond. But 6♥ is a fine contract, merely requiring a 4-2 or 3-3 Heart break (an 84% chance). How can E-W reach 6♥? We don’t have any clear-cut auction to offer, here is one possibility: 1♠ 2♥, 3♦ 3♥, 4♥ 5♣, 5♦ 6♥. Not convinced by that sequence? No, neither are we, we are not sure we’d want to bid 3♦ on that mangy suit, nor 4♥ with a singleton. Some slams are just tough to reach and this is one of them.
East’s 2♦ was an Inverted Minor raise, showing Diamond support, at least game-invitational values, and no 4-card major. West’s 2NT showed a minimum hand, and, by partnership agreement, stops in both of the major suits. East, with a square and fillerless 12-count, sensibly passed, though we suspect that, with 12 opposite 12, some pairs will get to 3NT.
Let’s say that North starts out against 2NT (or 3NT) with the 9♣. Declarer is no doubt relieved that the defense did not lead Hearts (he doesn’t know that the suit is blocked) and wins the Ace on the board. Now, let’s put ourselves in the South seat. Should she unblock with the Queen at Trick One? South knows that the T♣ is with Declarer, of course, but is it doubleton or tripleton? No guarantees here, but, on this auction, we would not expect Partner to lead from 4 small Clubs if she had a 3- or 4-card major as an alternative. So, we’d unblock the Q♣ and later, if necessary, the J♣, prepared to look most foolish if Partner had indeed led from 4 small Clubs.
OK, we’ve established that South will unblock the Clubs, now let’s look at the hand from the point of view of Declarer. After winning the opening lead on the board, Declarer does best to play on Spades first. North wins the Ace and continues Clubs, and Declarer must duck this trick (no doubt praying that there is no Heart shift). Dummy wins the third round of Clubs and leads a Diamond towards his hand, ensuring that the Diamond trick that must be lost will be lost to the safe South hand … if South pops up with the Queen, Declarer ducks … if South plays low, Declarer wins and ducks the second round of Diamonds to South’s Queen. Making 9 tricks.
Yes, that was a pretty lucky 9 tricks, 3NT is not a good contract. Let’s give the defense one more chance to beat 3NT by shifting to a Heart when the second round of Clubs is ducked. Declarer will not know that the Heart suit is blocked so he’ll duck the first Heart, hoping that the suit is 5-2. Now, the defense will play a Heart or a Club, setting up one suit or the other. If the defense establishes the Clubs, Declarer must arrange to lose the Diamond to South (as outlined above) … if the defense establishes the Hearts, Declarer must arrange to lose the Diamond to North (Diamond to the King, Diamond to the Ace, ducking if North plays the Queen, otherwise playing the A♦ and out a Diamond).
There’s not much to the bidding, surely 4♠ will be reached at every table. The play is straightforward, too, provided that Declarer plays the percentages in the trump suit. The only way for Declarer to lose a second trump trick is a 3-0 split, and Declarer can protect himself from the more likely of the 3-0 splits by starting out trumps with the King, reasoning that, with the Heart length held by South, any trump length is more likely to be in the North hand. And so it turns out to be, making 11 tricks when North gets finessed out of her J♠.
Nice bidding by East, we’d say! He opened with a 10-count, then he made a slam try, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. It’s a great slam, with just 23 HCP’s, surely a well-deserved top or almost top for those who bid it. Yes, South could have sacrificed in 6♥, but down five doubled for -1100 will be close to the same zero, better to pass, perhaps, hoping that the slam will fail.
If N-S end up in 3NT it will be played by South. West leads a low Club and East false-cards with the Ace, returns a low Club to West’s Jack, then a third Club is cashed, followed by the A♥ and it’s only 9 tricks for Declarer. That was a nice false-card by East, but Declarer would probably have guessed wrong even if East had played the King at Trick One.
If N-S end up in 5♦, it will be over quickly. Two Clubs are cashed, and that’s all the defense can get.
Aggressive bidding in the featured auction, by both East and North. East decided that his 8-count was worth a limit raise, and North went to game on her 9-count based on the double fit and shortness in the enemy suit. Perhaps North should merely have invited game with that hand (South would accept), but did she have a game try available over West’s 3♦ bid? Yes, it’s a Maximal Double situation for those who play that convention, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 4♠, East leads the Q♦ which is overtaken by the K♦. West shifts to a low Spade and Declarer’s Ten is covered by the Jack and Dummy’s King. Trumps are drawn, the Club finesse loses, a Spade comes back, and it’s down one. Was Declarer unlucky? Yes, but she also misguessed the hand. If she had flown with the Q♠ at Trick Two then East can win the trick but cannot continue the suit profitably. Eventually, the second Spade loser win disappear on the Clubs. How was Declarer to know the whereabouts of the J♠? It’s not obvious, though West would certainly make life easier for Declarer if he helpfully returned a top-of-nothing Spade.
South’s Double was DONT showing a one-suited hand, North’s 2♣ asked for the suit, and 2♠ was the final contract.
Against 2♠, West leads a Heart to the Ace, then it’s a Heart ruff, Club back, another Heart ruff, after which a Diamond shift sets the contract one trick. Of course, when East returns the Heart at Trick Two, he’ll play the Five, his lowest one, asking for a Club return, the so-called suit preference signal.
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