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Hand Analyses 19th September, 2007
Against 3NT, South leads a 4th best Spade, won by Dummy’s Queen. Now, the A♠ is knocked out, and one of two things will happen: - Either, South will be afraid to continue Spades, fearing that Declarer started with three in the suit. In that case, she will shift to the J♣ which will be ducked, then another Club won by Declarer’s Ace. With the Clubs seemingly 6-2, it’s safe for Declarer to take the Heart finesse, and that’s 11 tricks for Declarer and a good board. - Or, South will persevere with Spades, in which case the Heart finesse (into the hand with good Spades) is dangerous indeed, and Declarer will probably settle for 9 tricks.
Perhaps North should throw in a Club bid along the way. Now, South’s opening lead against 3NT will likely be the J♣, ducked by Declarer. North can set up the third trick for the defense with a Spade shift, or she can persevere with Clubs, allowing Declarer to take the safe Heart finesse, and score 11 tricks.
North’s 2♠ said “I have an invitational hand with 4 Spades (and not 4 Hearts)”, and South, naturally enough, signed off in 2NT. West has no attractive lead and will probably try a low Club. That works just fine, and the best that Declarer can do is to score 3 Hearts, 2 Diamonds, and 2 Clubs, for a total of 7 tricks, and down one.
West’s rebid showed 15-17 HCP’s and stops in the unbid suits. Against 3NT North leads the K♦, and Declarer carefully untangles her tricks … A♦, K♠, A♥, A♠, Q♣, J♣, etc. This leads to 9 top tricks for Declarer, and that suddenly becomes 13 when the Q♥ is doubleton.
A No Trump slam is a very poor proposition, requiring one defender or the other to hold Q♥ doubleton (about a 16% chance) if the defense leads a Diamond. But 6♥ is a fine contract, merely requiring a 4-2 or 3-3 Heart break (an 84% chance). How can E-W reach 6♥? We don’t have any clear-cut auction to offer, here is one possibility: 1♠ 2♥, 3♦ 3♥, 4♥ 5♣, 5♦ 6♥. Not convinced by that sequence? No, neither are we, we are not sure we’d want to bid 3♦ on that mangy suit, nor 4♥ with a singleton. Some slams are just tough to reach and this is one of them.
East’s 2♦ was an Inverted Minor raise, showing Diamond support, at least game-invitational values, and no 4-card major. West’s 2NT showed a minimum hand, and, by partnership agreement, stops in both of the major suits. East, with a square and fillerless 12-count, sensibly passed, though we suspect that, with 12 opposite 12, some pairs will get to 3NT.
Let’s say that North starts out against 2NT (or 3NT) with the 9♣. Declarer is no doubt relieved that the defense did not lead Hearts (he doesn’t know that the suit is blocked) and wins the Ace on the board. Now, let’s put ourselves in the South seat. Should she unblock with the Queen at Trick One? South knows that the T♣ is with Declarer, of course, but is it doubleton or tripleton? No guarantees here, but, on this auction, we would not expect Partner to lead from 4 small Clubs if she had a 3- or 4-card major as an alternative. So, we’d unblock the Q♣ and later, if necessary, the J♣, prepared to look most foolish if Partner had indeed led from 4 small Clubs.
OK, we’ve established that South will unblock the Clubs, now let’s look at the hand from the point of view of Declarer. After winning the opening lead on the board, Declarer does best to play on Spades first. North wins the Ace and continues Clubs, and Declarer must duck this trick (no doubt praying that there is no Heart shift). Dummy wins the third round of Clubs and leads a Diamond towards his hand, ensuring that the Diamond trick that must be lost will be lost to the safe South hand … if South pops up with the Queen, Declarer ducks … if South plays low, Declarer wins and ducks the second round of Diamonds to South’s Queen. Making 9 tricks.
Yes, that was a pretty lucky 9 tricks, 3NT is not a good contract. Let’s give the defense one more chance to beat 3NT by shifting to a Heart when the second round of Clubs is ducked. Declarer will not know that the Heart suit is blocked so he’ll duck the first Heart, hoping that the suit is 5-2. Now, the defense will play a Heart or a Club, setting up one suit or the other. If the defense establishes the Clubs, Declarer must arrange to lose the Diamond to South (as outlined above) … if the defense establishes the Hearts, Declarer must arrange to lose the Diamond to North (Diamond to the King, Diamond to the Ace, ducking if North plays the Queen, otherwise playing the A♦ and out a Diamond).
There’s not much to the bidding, surely 4♠ will be reached at every table. The play is straightforward, too, provided that Declarer plays the percentages in the trump suit. The only way for Declarer to lose a second trump trick is a 3-0 split, and Declarer can protect himself from the more likely of the 3-0 splits by starting out trumps with the King, reasoning that, with the Heart length held by South, any trump length is more likely to be in the North hand. And so it turns out to be, making 11 tricks when North gets finessed out of her J♠.
Nice bidding by East, we’d say! He opened with a 10-count, then he made a slam try, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. It’s a great slam, with just 23 HCP’s, surely a well-deserved top or almost top for those who bid it. Yes, South could have sacrificed in 6♥, but down five doubled for -1100 will be close to the same zero, better to pass, perhaps, hoping that the slam will fail.
If N-S end up in 3NT it will be played by South. West leads a low Club and East false-cards with the Ace, returns a low Club to West’s Jack, then a third Club is cashed, followed by the A♥ and it’s only 9 tricks for Declarer. That was a nice false-card by East, but Declarer would probably have guessed wrong even if East had played the King at Trick One.
If N-S end up in 5♦, it will be over quickly. Two Clubs are cashed, and that’s all the defense can get.
Aggressive bidding in the featured auction, by both East and North. East decided that his 8-count was worth a limit raise, and North went to game on her 9-count based on the double fit and shortness in the enemy suit. Perhaps North should merely have invited game with that hand (South would accept), but did she have a game try available over West’s 3♦ bid? Yes, it’s a Maximal Double situation for those who play that convention, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 4♠, East leads the Q♦ which is overtaken by the K♦. West shifts to a low Spade and Declarer’s Ten is covered by the Jack and Dummy’s King. Trumps are drawn, the Club finesse loses, a Spade comes back, and it’s down one. Was Declarer unlucky? Yes, but she also misguessed the hand. If she had flown with the Q♠ at Trick Two then East can win the trick but cannot continue the suit profitably. Eventually, the second Spade loser win disappear on the Clubs. How was Declarer to know the whereabouts of the J♠? It’s not obvious, though West would certainly make life easier for Declarer if he helpfully returned a top-of-nothing Spade.
South’s Double was DONT showing a one-suited hand, North’s 2♣ asked for the suit, and 2♠ was the final contract.
Against 2♠, West leads a Heart to the Ace, then it’s a Heart ruff, Club back, another Heart ruff, after which a Diamond shift sets the contract one trick. Of course, when East returns the Heart at Trick Two, he’ll play the Five, his lowest one, asking for a Club return, the so-called suit preference signal.
Please go to the Bidding Quiz for more on this auction. In the meantime we’ll just say that 4♦ was Minorwood, and 4♠ showed “3 or 0”.
6NT is a breeze, with 12 easy tricks.
We’d have to rank that Takeout Double by West as quite ugly, and that may be overly polite. North’s 1NT in this situation shows 7-10 or thereabouts, and that leads N-S into the hopeless 3NT. Perhaps South was over-ambitious with her 2NT bid, but she did have 3 Aces and a couple of Tens, so let’s not be too critical. Anyway, Declarer simply has no source of tricks, and, even with the Clubs behaving, 8 tricks is the limit on the hand.
East could not find a way into the auction (but see Post Script below), and so N-S ambled into 1NT. Here’s how the play might develop: West leads 8♦, won by Declarer’s Jack The 9♠ is run around and wins the trick West wins the second Spade trick with the Ace West’s Q♠ is won by Dummy’s Ace (East pitches a Diamond) Declarer exits with a Spade, pitching a Club from her hand (East pitches another Diamond) West plays a Club to the King and East’s Ace At this point, East can clearly see that Declarer has 2 Spades, 3 Diamonds and a Club trick, for a total of six. What does Declarer have in Hearts? Surely not the Queen and the Jack, with both those cards she would have played on Hearts earlier, rather than exiting with that 4th round of Spades. That being the case, would it be a good idea to exit with a low Heart here, relying on South to misguess the Hearts? No doubt South will get the Hearts wrong, playing low is certainly the percentage play, and West will win his Jack. Now, if West is on the ball he will shoot back a Club and the defense will get to 7 tricks before Declarer can.
Nice defense, but perhaps East was unnecessarily reliant upon his Partner reverting back to Clubs after winning the J♥, things might not be so clear from his side of the table and he might continue Hearts. Better play, we think, would be for East (after winning the A♣) to exit with a Diamond. Declarer will win that and play on Clubs, and, when East gets in with the J♣, that is the time for East to shift to a low Heart.
Post Script Back to the bidding and the East hand in particular. Most partnerships play that a 1NT overcall shows 15-18 and, of course, a decent holding in the enemy suit. Here, East has only 14 HCP’s, but that Club holding is quite appealing and the Jack looks to be worth more than just one point. So, we’d be sorely tempted to stretch this into a 1NT overcall, all the more so as we are non-vulnerable. We wish that this idea was more successful on the actual hand, though, it looks to us that, with normal play, E-W will go down in 1NT, whereas keeping quiet will probably get them a plus score. Oh, well!
West had a difficult choice opposite Partner’s 2♣ overcall, and might have tried 2NT (descriptive but a slight overbid) or 3♣ (OK on values, but deficient in the Club department).
3NT is not a happy contract, here’s what might happen: - North leads a Spade allowing Declarer to escape for down one … Declarer will continue Spades, North wins the King, and shifts to the K♥ … only 8 tricks when the Clubs are 5-1. - If North leads disastrous low Diamond (or low Heart), Declarer gets his 9th trick - If North leads the K♦, she shifts to the K♥ at Trick Two and that’s down two. Surely the K♦ lead (followed by the Heart switch) is a stand-out, it hardly seems likely that South has much help to offer and North should defend accordingly.
North is too good for a mere 3♠ overcall and goes straight to game. Declarer makes 12 tricks by ruffing two Hearts on the board, getting a Diamond pitch on the A♣, and finessing in Diamonds. Her only loser is the K♠.
Can East hold Declarer to 11 tricks by leading a trump on the go? No, Dummy plays the T♠ and one of these two things will happen: - West will cover the Ten with his King, sacrificing his trump trick. The defense will wind up scoring a red suit trick but that will still be 12 tricks for Declarer. - West withholds his K♠ at Trick One but that provides Dummy with an extra entry, which can be used to finesse Diamonds twice. She gets one less ruff on the board, but scores a third Diamond as compensation, and again it’s 12 tricks.
West will lead a major, naturally enough, and it seems obvious to lead the stronger one. Alas, for the defense, a Heart lead works badly. Dummy’s King wins that, and Declarer can count 9 top tricks. Of course, she’ll try for some overtricks and will lead a Diamond to the King, which holds. That gets her up to 10 but she won’t stop there. She’ll cross to the board with a Club and lead another Diamond. No doubt she will be aware that a cunning West, with the A♦, might have ducked the first Diamond trick, in which case the sure 10 tricks may revert to 9. But all is well when both missing Aces are with East, and it’s 11 tricks.
Note the importance of setting up the extra tricks early in the play. If Declarer rattles off all of Dummy’s Clubs right away then her hand will be squeezed, she’ll have to fatally weaken her Diamond or Spade holding. Additionally, Declarer needs to use one of those Club entries for a Diamond lead.
After North’s Unusual 2NT (showing the minors), East had several ways in which to raise Spades, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. South’s 5♣ bounces E-W into 5♠, and now it’s all up to North’s opening lead. With South advertising Club length, it seems natural enough for North to start with the Q♦. Wrong! That allows the Club loser to disappear on the second round of Diamonds. A Club lead beats 5♠ one trick because Declarer cannot get to the board in time for the Club pitch.
With the South hand would you make a Takeout Double of 1♥? We don’t think that it’s quite up to snuff, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 3♥, South leads the Club Nine, after which Declarer can confidently deduce both (a) the opponents’ distributions, and (b) the location of all the missing high cards. Astonishing but true! How is this done? Please see the Play Problem.
South might well have thrown in a 2♠ preempt, but the vulnerability was something of a deterrent. Anyway, we can see three possible final contracts, here’s how they might work out: - East plays in Diamonds, making 9 tricks thanks to the favorable Club situation. - South plays in Spades, making 9 tricks when the Hearts break 3-3. - East plays in No Trump, which can make 9 tricks thanks to the favorable Club situation, plus the Spade blockage … but that requires some good guessing by Declarer.
North transfers to Hearts, and then bids Diamonds, showing a game-forcing hand. Of course, South now wants to show her Heart fit, and the question is “What is the difference here between a 3♥ bid and a 4♥ bid?” Please see the Bidding Quiz.
4♥ is a reasonable enough contract, but West can defeat it by leading his singleton Club. He gets a ruff after East gets in with a Heart, and although that is only the defense’s 3rd trick it happens to deprive Declarer of her 10th trick, there’s no way for her to score more than one Spade, three trumps, two Diamonds, and only three Clubs. Down one.
When East leads a 4th best Spade Six, North will figure out that it comes from a holding of KJ96(x), or K976(x), or J976(x), with other holdings (such as JT96 or KJT6) he would have led an honor card. But, even though the odds seem to favor the King with East, Declarer does best to win the opening lead in her hand with the Ace, her purpose being to finesse a Diamond into the safe West hand. That finesse works and the K♦ is cashed. Now what? Declarer will no doubt try the Heart finesse and that will eventually lead to 10 tricks.
Against 4♠, suppose that South leads the J♥. There are two obvious lines of play, which do you prefer? - Win the Heart lead on the board, pitch a Diamond on the second high Heart, finesse against the K♠, and, if necessary, cross to the A♣ and finesse the Spade again. That will be 11 tricks when the K♠ is onside (but not if trumps are 4-0), 10 tricks otherwise. - Win the Heart lead on the board, pitch a Diamond on the second high Heart, then lead a Diamond, planning to ruff a Diamond on the board. If all goes well, Declarer can get the ruff and finesse against North’s K♠, hoping for a doubleton. That will be 11 tricks if Diamonds are 4-3 (62% of the time), and provides the chance for 12 if, having got the Diamond ruff, the K♠ is singleton or doubleton onside.
No prizes for concluding that the Diamond ruff is the way to go. One small point, though. After winning the opening Heart lead, it would be nice if South won the first Diamond trick. Why? Well, if North wins that trick she’ll shoot back a trump and we’ll have to decide whether to finesse the Spade or go for the Diamond ruff on the board. So much better if South wins that Diamond trick. There’s no way that this can be assured, we’d lead the 8♦ (not the Ten), and run it around if North does not cover. Anyway, it’s all somewhat academic, all roads seem to lead to 11 tricks when the Diamond ruff is attained but the K♠ is tripleton.
North makes a DONT Double, showing a one-suiter, and winds up playing in 2♥.
Playing in 2♥, Declarer is likely to make 9 tricks. East will lead the Q♣ which Declarer should win on the board. Now, A♥ and out a Heart, and Declarer still has a Club entry to get back to hand and draw the last trumps. It takes the inspired Spade lead on the go (or a high Diamond and a Spade shift) to set up a Spade ruff if Declarer is to be held to 8 tricks. And that is somewhat unlikely.
South does not have an obvious lead and might well try a trump, seeking to cut down on the ruffs. Now, the obvious line of play is to set up the Hearts. Declarer wins the trump lead in his hand, finesses the Hearts, eventually setting up the suit with the aid of a ruff. That will be 10 tricks, is there an 11th? Deep Finesse says that there is, but we’ve been having trouble tracking it down. We know it’s there somewhere, and we also know that making just 10 tricks will surely be a good board.
Usually, when the opponents embark upon a 2/1 auction, the recommended strategy is silence. But, for the second time in the set, N-S feel the need to jump right in (see also Board 6). South bids 2NT, showing a two-suiter (it can hardly be natural), and eventually N-S compete all the way to the 5-level. Over 5♠, West was in a Forcing Pass situation, and doubled, primarily to dissuade Partner from bidding again.
It turns out that 5♠ is cold! The Spades break, then Declarer can get to the board with a second round of Spades, finesse the Clubs and ruff out the suit, and, bingo, it’s 11 tricks. Expect the recap sheet to show a sprinkling of 650’s (5♠ doubled) and 690’s (4♠ doubled with an overtrick). In fact, in some ways we’d say that the featured auction was almost a triumph for E-W, at least they managed to go minus only -650!
South had choices after North’s 2NT rebid, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 3NT, if East leads a Spade (no reason not to), and the play might start as follows: Spade lead won by Declarer’s Ace A♦ is cashed Then K♦ getting the bad news J♥ is run around to West’s Queen Spade back, ducked by Declarer Another Spade, won by Declarer Now, Declarer has 9 tricks, and that becomes 10 when the A♣ turns out to be in the hand without the long Spades.
There was dissension in the editorial ranks on this one! One vote was for North to double 3♦, the other vote was for 3NT. The featured auction shows the 3NT bid followed by a transfer to Spades (is that your agreement?). Please see the Bidding Quiz for more on this contentious auction.
Let’s assume that N-S do manage to find their 5-4 Spade fit. Here’s what might happen if South winds up as Declarer: Diamond lead, won by East’s Jack Heart shift, won by Dummy’s Ace Diamond ruff in hand Club lead won by West’s Ace Heart won by Dummy’s King K♣ is cashed Exit with a Heart Now, Declarer can scamper home on a cross-ruff, and, of course, she’ll ruff the Diamond high, playing West for the Q♠.
2♦ was New Minor Forcing and West’s jump to 3♠ showed 3-card support and a good hand.
South will lead a Diamond against 4♠, and the finesse loses to North’s King. Back comes the J♥ which Dummy wins. Next, 3 rounds of trumps, ending on the board. Then, a Club to the King. Back to the board with the A♦, and another Club, North craftily plays low once more. Dummy has no more entries at this point, so, in theory at least, it’s pretty much an even guess as to whether to play the Queen or finesse the Ten. But surely playing the Queen is the way to go, no reason to assume that South made a brilliant duck of the Ace on the first round of Clubs. And, if it turns out that she made that brilliant duck? Then Declarer can hardly do less than say “Nice defense!”
3♦ is a cozy contract, indeed. South starts out with a high Spade, takes one look at Dummy and shifts to the K♣, after which the Club ruff gets the defense their 4th trick.
In theory, the N-S bidding was absolutely perfect, in the sense that they refrained from competing to 3♠ on their 10-card fit, a contract which is -200 if their “double dummy” opponents double. But we’d be tempted, either as North or South (both have an extra trump), to push on to 3♠ which we suspect will escape the ax and quietly go down one for -100 and a good board.
A N-S invitational auction subsides in 3♦ and it’s an easy 10 tricks.
West’s 2♣ was an Inverted Minor raise showing at least invitational values and no 4-card major. East’s rebid of 2♠ showed something in that suit and that was all that West needed to hear in order to charge into the No Trump game. Unfortunately for Declarer there are only 8 tricks, and with both Spades offside there is no real prospect of a 9th. Down one.
West might have been tempted to rebid 2♠, but we don’t think that it is quite good enough. But once Partner has raised it is certainly good enough to go to game.
It’s an interesting Play Problem, follow the link.
There is one bid in the featured auction that some might find to be quite astonishing! We are referring to West’s Pass over 2♦. Please see the Bidding Quiz.
Playing in Diamonds, South can score, er, yes, just how many tricks can South score? Please see the Play Problem.
And if E-W push on to 3♠? They’ll probably avoid a Double, in which case E-W will score well by going down one for -100.
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