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Hand Analyses 29th August, 2007
West’s 3♠ was preemptive, and preemptive is a fair description of the West hand, with its good offense and non-existent defense. But is 3♠ enough? Please see the Bidding Quiz. The way that the auction went, East did not feel comfortable making a “five over five” sacrifice, there was too much potential for -500. So, E-W sell out to 5♣.
Against 5♣, East leads the A♠, then smartly cashes a Heart, and that is the end of that hand. Making 11 tricks.
South’s 3♦ bid bounces her opponents into a hopeless game. We don’t fault West for his minimum Takeout Double, but perhaps East could have bid just 3♥. True, he has 11 HCP’s, but it’s a quacky collection with square shape and that K♦ does not seem to be pulling full weight.
The game maybe hopeless looking at all four hands but it does have practical chances. For example, South leads the Q♦ which is won by North’s Ace. Looking at West’s Dummy, it is 100% clear for North to shift to a Spade, but will she be up to leading a low Spade? If North makes the mistake of playing A♠ and another Spade, then the third Spade loser disappears, and now the contract can be made if only Declarer can pick up the trump suit. The way to do that is to cash the A♥, and run the Ten, playing North for J9xx. Does South’s preempt make this a realistic play? Perhaps. At the moment of truth, Declarer will figure South for 7 Diamonds (from the bidding) and 2 Spades (because three Spades were not cashed). It also seems likely that South would have started out with a singleton Club if she had one, so let’s give her at least a couple of those. All this suggests that South started with one or two Hearts, making it pretty much an even money guess which way to play the Hearts.
Count Signaling Note If Declarer is reasonably certain that South would have led a singleton Club if she had one, and if the defenders are known to be compulsive count signalers, then it might be an idea to cash the A♥, and then, before the crucial second round of trumps, to cash Q♣ and A♣. North may routinely high-low, and if this signal can be trusted, then South is known to have started with 2-1-7-3 distribution and the trump suit played accordingly. The moral of this story is that it pays to mix up your defensive signals, at least when you are sure that Partner will not be misled.
North’s response was the Jacoby 2NT, showing a 4-card raise and game-going values. South showed Heart shortness and North bid the discouraging 4♠, and that was the end of that. In 4♠ there are two minor finesses to be taken, one works and the other doesn’t, so that is 11 tricks.
The E-W auction gets too high, but who is to blame? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 4♥, North leads the T♦, which Declarer wins in hand. He runs the J♥ which South should cunningly duck! Now, Declarer plays another Heart, and realizes he has been duped when North shows out. South plays three rounds of trumps and now Declarer can do no better than score 2 Spades, 2 Hearts, and 3 Diamonds, so that lethal cocktail of overbidding and crafty defense results in three vulnerable undertricks.
West will surely get to 4♥ one way or another, and at any other vulnerability South would no doubt bid on to 4♠. But “Red vs White” that would be altogether too risky.
Against 4♥, North leads a Spade, won by Dummy’s Ace. The worst that can happen to Declarer is to lose a Heart, a Diamond and a Club, but Declarer will want to do better than 10 tricks. One possibility is to guess the Diamond correctly, and it’s not inconceivable that the Club loser will be spirited away on the 4th round of Diamonds. After winning the A♠, Declarer loses a trump to North’s Ace, and Spades will likely be continued and ruffed by Declarer. Now it seems normal enough for Declarer to draw trumps and attempt to guess the Diamond, making an 11th trick if the guessing is good.
North has an easy run of it in 3♦, losing just 3 tricks in the black suits. But the defense must grab those tricks (or at least the Club tricks) right away, otherwise one of Declarer’s Club losers will disappear on the Hearts.
Any thoughts on East’s bidding? We would classify it as somewhat pusillanimous, please see the Bidding Quiz.
As can be seen, E-W can make a load of tricks in Clubs (10 to be precise) and are very close to making game in Spades. All that is required for 4♠ to make is a 3-2 split in trumps.
South would have been forgiven if she had chosen to pass that square 12-count, but we hesitate to argue with an opening bid that contains two Aces and a King. South’s second bid was a Support Double (showing 3-card support), and again we would not argue with a Pass here. Just because South is playing Support Doubles does not mean that she is obliged to use one use one every time she has 3-card support, there should surely be a certain amount of discretion when Opener has a particularly miserable hand, as here.
2♠ is a perilous contract, with normal play Declarer will lose a trick to the singleton Q♠ after it will be touch-and-go for 8 tricks. But good defense beats the contract, as follows: East leads the A♥ Another Heart to West’s King The third round of Hearts is ruffed by Declarer A Spade is led to the Jack and the West’s Queen Another Heart (good defense!), Declarer pitches a Club, East a Diamond, Dummy ruffs K♠ ducked by East (more good defense!)
This wicked defense has left Declarer in the following predicament: Declarer ♠ T8 ♥ ♦ KJT ♣ QT West East ♠ ♠ K7 ♥ 9 ♥ ♦ Q76 ♦ 5 ♣ K65 ♣ J932 Dummy ♠ ♥ ♦ A982 ♣ A75 In the end position, Declarer needs 5 of the 7 last tricks, with the lead on the board. Declarer has two ways to proceed, and they both lead to defeat: - If she tries to get back to her hand with a Club, West jumps up with the K♣, and now the 5th Heart is ruinous, enduring that the defense gets two more trump tricks and 6 in total. - If she gets back to her hand with a Diamond finesse, and then loses to the K♠, East will exit with a Club, and Declarer is up the creek and paddleless. She cannot duck the Club (West wins and leads a Heart for a trump promotion), and if she wins the A♣, and tries to get back to her hand (to draw the last trump) then East will ruff.
Pity poor North for running into such a fine defense. Are you wondering why Deep Finesse says that 9 tricks are possible in Spades if played “double dummy”? Well, obviously that singleton offside Q♠ will have to be dropped, after which there is a rather neat squeeze against West. The play commences with 3 rounds of Hearts, a Spade to the King, Diamond finesse, Spade to the Jack (East craftily ducks), and another Spade to East’s Ace, leaving this position: Declarer ♠ T8 ♥ ♦ KT ♣ QT8 West East ♠ ♠ A7 ♥ 7 ♥ ♦ Q76 ♦ 5 ♣ K65 ♣ J932 Dummy ♠ 9 ♥ ♦ A98 ♣ A74 The lead is in Dummy, and, despite the blocked Diamond position, Declarer can make 5 of the remaining 7 tricks, as West is put through the wringer. Dummy’s 9♠ is led, to be won by East, but along the way West has some discarding problems: - If West pitches a Heart, East will win the A♠ and shift to a Club. Now the threat of West winning the K♣ and playing a Heart back (for a trump promotion) has gone, so Declarer can simply play low from Dummy and get his extra trick that way. - If West pitches a Club, East will win the A♠ as before, but this time Declarer must hop up with the Ace, take another Diamond finesse, and draw the last trump. West’s last three cards will be ♦Q7 and ♣K, so Declarer just leads a low Club and the King comes crashing down, setting up Declarer’s Queen for the 9th trick. - If West pitches a Diamond, the Diamonds are good and again it is 9 tricks.
West does not quite have game-going values in his own hand but might have been tempted to open 2♣ anyway. 4♠ turns out to be a fine contract, needing nothing more than 3-2 in the trump suit for success. Let’s say that the defense leads Clubs and that Declarer ruffs the second round. Now, Declarer plays a Spade to the Dummy’s King, North playing the Queen (or Jack). Now the percentage play in the trump suit is to run the T♠, playing South for the missing honor and following the so-called Principle of Restricted Choice. That Principle is not a success on the actual hand, holding Declarer to just 10 tricks.
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