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Hand Analyses 15th August, 2007
West did well not to push on to game, perhaps he had seen his Partner’s non-vulnerable overcalls before. For once, East’s overcall is most sound, and E-W’s combined 26 HCP’s would normally be enough to make game a good proposition. But both 3NT and 4♠ are poor contracts indeed, the hands fit together most poorly.
How do E-W fare in Spades? Surely the defense will lead Diamonds, and after that Declarer needs to bring in the trump suit for one loser. That requires either King doubleton or King tripleton or JT doubleton with North, less than a 40% proposition, and on the lie of the cards it’s 9 tricks only.
3NT is an inferior contract to 4♠, but, perversely, 3NT is the contract that makes. Let’s assume once more that the defense starts with Diamonds. That gives Declarer his 7th trick, then the 8th and 9th come from major suit finesses. But some of the routes to 9 tricks are strictly double dummy (try Diamond lead to the Ace and a Club shift, for example), we don’t see many making 3NT contracts in this board’s future, unless it is with some obliging defense.
Is your partnership on a sure footing when it comes to 1♦ 2♣ auctions? If not, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Playing in 4♠, what are Declarer’s options in the Spade suit? Most of the time she will lose two tricks in the suit (or even 3 on a bad break), and the best chance for just one loser is to lead low towards the King hoping that East started with AQ doubleton (just a 3% chance). Anyway, that doesn’t work and Declarer loses two Spades and a Diamond. Here’s how the play might go: Heart lead to Dummy’s King Spade to Declarer’s King Spade to East’s Ace East exits with a Heart (Dummy pitching a Diamond) Diamond to the Queen and East’s Ace Now East has no Spades to lead so does best to return a Diamond. Declarer’s King wins this, and she now cashes winners and cross-ruffs, allowing West to take his trump winner at his leisure.
A Delightful Swindle Perhaps you had a different auction and somehow arranged for North to be Declarer. Now, the JT75 of Spades are in the closed hand, and Declarer has a better (and far more enjoyable!) way to avoid two Spade losers. He should play low from Dummy’s K632, hoping that West started with Qx. If so, 99.9% of the Wests on this planet will play low, the Jack will force the Ace, and the Queen will fall under Dummy’s King on the next round. Pretty neat, eh? This play is almost guaranteed to succeed whenever West started with Q4 or Q8 or Q9 (three holdings) whereas the “percentage play” of low towards the King only works with one holding (AQ with East). And swindles are always so much fun, don’t you think?
We cannot see a good reason for any of the combatants to get involved on this hand. And, if there is an outbreak of bidding, we predict that the side that buys the contract will go minus.
What do you think of that 2♥ bid by North? Not exactly text-book perfect, is it? Vulnerable, second seat, and rotten suit are the obvious flaws here. We confess that we would indeed bid 2♥ here anyway, but that’s just a personal style. Actually, we would upgrade the suit to only semi-rotten, the Ace counts for a lot in perilous fits.
Moving on to East, his 4NT was for the minors according to the partnership agreements, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. Alas, for E-W, the hands are a complete misfit and 5♣ down two will be the final result, mercifully undoubled we would expect.
If East plays this in 1NT it won’t be much fun. South leads a Heart and now Declarer must arrange an end-play just to avoid down two and the dreaded -200. Here is how the play might go: Heart to North’s Queen Heart to Dummy’s Ace Spade Jack is run around to South’s Ace Three Hearts are cashed, Declarer pitching a Spade and a Diamond Diamond to the King and Ace Diamond to South’s Queen Club to Declarer’s Queen A♣ is cashed Club to South’s King Now, with just two cards left, South is forced to concede the remaining tricks to Dummy. That’s down one, and as good as Declarer can hope for.
Of course, there will be some Souths who will save East from this miserable fate. They’ll jump right in over 1NT with their characterless and vulnerable 12-count, and will play it in 2♥, mercifully undoubled. Now it will be South, not East who is struggling to avoid that -200. Declarer is woefully short of Dummy entries and her best line is to postpone the decision in trumps for as long as possible: J♠ covered by Q, K, A Exit a Spade West plays a Spade, Declarer pitches a Club (good play) West exits a Diamond to East’s Eight (good guess!) and Declarer’s Queen Declarer exits a Diamond East cashes a second Diamond East cashes the A♣ A Club to
South’s King
Let’s assume that you play Jacoby Transfers. Do you also play Texas Transfers? If so, then 1NT 4♥ would be a transfer to Spades. So far, so good, but what is the difference between these two auctions? West East West East 1NT 1NT 2♥ 2♠ 4♥ 4♠ 4♠ In the first auction we got to 4♠ slowly via Jacoby, in the second we went there directly through Texas. A common treatment is for the slow Jacoby auction to be a mild slam try, and for the Texas auction to show interest only in game.
The actual West hand is good enough for a mild slam try, and the next question is “Should East accept the slam try with that hand?” It’s certainly tempting with those 4 trumps, but we don’t think that another bid is warranted with that minimum hand. Remember, it’s very much a “mild” slam try, East needs something really good to bid again.
N-S have two cashing Hearts, of course, but South is more likely to start out with the J♦. Now Declarer has 11 top tricks plus the possibility of a 12th if the Clubs behave. There’s no reason why Declarer should not rattle off all his trumps and both his Diamond winners before playing on Clubs. It may not be obvious to South (with the East hand hidden) that she must keep all her Clubs, and if she fails to do so that will be Declarer’s 12th trick.
A straightforward enough auction. East leads the A♥ which is ruffed by Declarer. There are 10 tricks in the black suits, and a Diamond trick should make 11. However, Declarer is in danger of losing control in the face of repeated Heart leads. On the actual hand, with trumps a friendly 3-2, she must guess the Diamond correctly for that 11th trick. Will she? She probably should! East leads the A♥ and West discourages, so surely East has AK♥ and probably AKQ♥. In that case, the A♦ figures to be with West. So, Declarer ruffs that opening lead, draws trumps, crosses to Dummy with a Club and leads towards her Diamond holding, planning to fly with the King if West plays low. That’s 11 tricks.
In the featured auction, West cleverly bids North’s Diamonds and similarly East bids South’s Spades, allowing E-W to snuggle up in a cozy 1NT contract. North will lead Diamonds anyway, which Declarer must win in his hand. Now, it’s AKQ♠, followed by a low Club towards the board and a silent prayer that the A♣ is with North. The prayer is answered and it is 7 tricks.
All four protagonists had a choice at their first turn: - North chose to treat her hand as a 5-5 when she opened 1♠. To open 1♥ and then bid 2♠ would be more descriptive of her shape but would be a Reverse and that would be an overstatement of her values. - East decided against chiming in with an Unusual 2NT bid. Rightly so in our view, the vulnerability is adverse and that K♥ is more useful on defense than offense. - South had several ways to proceed and chose to show her good Club suit first. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz. - Next, we look at the West hand. The opponents are in a 2/1 auction and he is Red vs White. Should he stick his neck out with a 2♦ bid? Probably. The good suit provides a degree of safety, and he’d like to get Partner off to a safe lead.
Against 4♠, East lays down the A♦, and with normal play will later score the singleton K♥. That will be 10 tricks for Declarer.
North chose to overcall with a chunky 4-card suit, East made a minimum Negative Double, and South dredged up an 11-loser Spade raise. All of these marginal bids combined to put West under some pressure. He wanted to compete to 3♥ opposite Partner’s known Heart suit, but he did not want to encourage Partner to push on to game. In the featured auction he bid 3♥ hoping that Partner would not place him with extras. Had he been playing the Good-Bad 2NT he would have had a weaker way to compete to the 3-level. Please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 3♥, North starts with the A♠ and when Dummy comes down she can see the threat of Spade ruffs. It looks likely that South has three Spades (no preemptive raise to 3♠), which gives Declarer four of them. So, next comes the A♥, then a Heart to the King and a third Heart, at which point Declarer is on the ropes. He is forced to win the third round of trumps in his hand, unblocks the K♦, and leads a low Club towards the board. When the Q♣ shows up in the North hand, Declarer escapes for a lucky down one.
The defense could have done better with a more passive defense. After cashing the A♠, North could just exit with a Diamond and eventually the defense comes to 6 tricks … two Spades, a Spade overruff, two Hearts and a Club.
Let’s assume that your partnership is playing Weak Twos, perhaps in the 5-10 range or thereabouts. It’s a useful, descriptive bid and there is the reasonable chance that it will inconvenience the opponents because of its preemptive value. But how about in 4th seat? There’s no preemptive value when passing out the hand was an option, so a good way to play East’s 2♠ bid is a really good Weak Two, maybe even a tad better. That’s clearly what our featured East had in mind, and 2♠ is where he played it.
This is a most uninteresting hand in the play, it’s a routine 9 tricks.
We like West’s bidding on this deal! We like the light opening bid of 1♣ and we like the advance sacrifice of 5♣. For more on these bids please see the Bidding Quiz.
West’s 5♣ bid certainly caused a problem for North. She has an undisclosed fit for Partner’s Spades, which suggests bidding. On the other hand she has only moderate controls, no shortness, and two losers in the enemy suit, which suggests doubling or passing. Our featured North chose a middle route of passing, but we wouldn’t blame her if she had doubled.
Anyway, our featured N-S managed to navigate these treacherous waters and play in 5♠. It’s not a cast-iron contract, but it comes home when the Q♠ is kindly placed.
How about 5♣ doubled? It’s an excellent sacrifice, down just two tricks when the defense gets its Heart ruff. In fact, even 6♣ is a good sacrifice, but it’s hard for E-W to find that, they should be delighted that they got the opponents to the 5-level and hope that they can beat that contract.
Let us assume that you play the Gambling 3NT, whereby in 1st and 2nd seat an opening bid of 3NT shows a 7-card (occasionally 8) running minor and precious little else. That’s fine, probably a more useful treatment than “25-26 balanced”. But what about 3rd and 4th seat? In those cases, there is a lot to be said for having something outside. How much? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
Our featured West, quite reasonably in our view, thought it was fine to gamble 3NT in 4th seat with quite a lot outside. North is on lead against 3NT, after a most uninformative auction. She might guess to lead a Spade, and that holds Declarer to 9 tricks. Or, she might guess to lead a Diamond and that will be 10 tricks for Declarer. The point here is that North really is guessing, thanks to the uninformative E-W auction, and that’s a good thing. If you are West, that is.
Whether N-S are playing an SAYC style of system, or a 2/1 style of system, it seems likely that the final N-S contract will be 2NT or 3♣. - If North declares in 3♣, it’s easy enough to envisage 9 tricks. The Club finesse works and brings home that suit, but there are two Diamond losers, and a Heart loser and a Spade loser for sure. But how about winners? There are 6 Clubs, a Heart and a Spade. Where’s the 9th? A second Spade does the trick, and the potential third Diamond loser is tossed away on the second round of Hearts (must be done early in the play, because of the entry situation). - If North declares 2NT it will be probably be a most fortunate 9 tricks. For example, East leads a Spade to West’s King, then a Spade back, but now it’s 9 tricks via 6 Clubs, 2 Spades and a Heart.
When West bids 4♠ he has no idea whether or not it will make, but it would be quite feeble not to give it a shot. This doesn’t look like the type of hand for a subtle game try, we’d just close our eyes, bid the game, and hope for the best.
Against 4♠, North might well start out with the T♦ to Declarer’s Queen (South should withhold the King), after which it goes Diamond ruff, Spade to the Ace, Diamond ruff, Heart ruff, Spade, etc. Making 11 tricks.
After Opener’s jump shift, South is headed slamwards, but does not have a convenient way of investigating the grand slam. So, she settles for 6NT, a good choice in our opinion, it seems unlikely that Spades will make more tricks that No Trump.
How would you play 6NT? There are 10 top tricks and one of the majors will have to make up the shortfall. The Spade intermediates make that suit look more appealing, so the obvious play is to win the Q♦ and start on Spades, making an overtrick whenever the Queen is doubleton or singleton (18%), and going down on the 3% of occasions when Spades are 5-1 or 6-0 and when Hearts don't come to the rescue. The other 79% of the time it's six on the nose. The inferior line of playing on Hearts first happens to hit the jackpot when the Queen is doubleton and a lucky 13 tricks are made.
Bidding Afterthought In the featured auction, after North’s jump shift, South was committed to slam but had no good way to investigate a grand slam in Spades, unless North could support the suit. As South’s Spades were so good, that support was somewhat unlikely, so South might have tried a different tack, investigating instead a grand slam in Hearts. Over 3♣ she could bid 3♥, North would cue-bid, and South would trot out Roman Key Card (for Hearts, of course). South would show three Key Cards with 5♦ (let’s assume 1430 responses), now 5♠ is the Queen Ask, and, when that card turns out to be sadly lacking, it’s 6NT.
It turns out that North can make 10 tricks thanks to the highly fortunate Club situation and the 3-3 Heart break. East leads a low Heart for want of better, and Dummy’s Ace takes the trick. Now, the J♠ is run around and trumps are drawn in three rounds. Declarer plays K♥ and out a Heart, and will later play on Clubs, scoring 5 Spades, 3 Hearts and 2 Clubs.
An awkward deal for N-S, but they ended up in a reasonable enough spot. Again it turns out to be a part-score hand that makes game thanks to the lucky lie of the cards. Let’s say that East starts out with the Diamond Eight, won by Dummy’s Jack. Declarer cashes her Diamond tricks, and leads a Spade to the Jack which forces the Ace. The defense can shift to Hearts, but with the T♥ onside they can take no more than two Hearts, a Spade, and eventually a Club (Declarer must lose a Club in order to establish her 9th trick).
Opposite a 1NT overcall, most pairs play their regular 1NT system, so here East used a Jacoby sequence to offer Partner a choice between 3NT and 4♥. With a square hand and a double Club stop it seemed natural enough for West to settle for 3NT, but it turns out that 4♥ makes 10 tricks to 3NT’s 9 tricks.
South transferred to Spades and then bid a game-forcing and natural 3♣. Those who are of a scientific bent will say that 3♠ (over 3♣) is stronger than 4♠ directly, the so-called Principle of Fast Arrival in action.
Against 4♠, East does not have an attractive lead and might well start out with a disastrous trump. Now 12 tricks are easy. Left to her own devices in the trump suit, the percentage play is to play the King and finesse against East (twice if necessary), and this correct but unlucky line brings in just 11 tricks.
East took advantage of the favorable vulnerability to throw in a lightweight 2♦ DONT bid, showing Diamonds and a major. South’s 3♦ was a Lebensohl-style version of Stayman (without a Diamond stopper), for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 3NT, East will lead a red suit, but either way it will be 9 tricks … 4 Spades, 4 Clubs, and a trick in whichever red suit the defense leads.
Those of you who play the Good-Bad 2NT (a flavor of Lebensohl) will recognize that 3♣ bid as natural but showing extras. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz.
The obvious Heart lead holds Declarer to 11 tricks.
E-W would have hit the jackpot if West had passed 3♥ doubled, that’s worth +200 for the defense. But West pushed on to 3♠ which is where he played it. It’s highly unlikely that the defense will be able to untangle their four tricks, for example, A♦, Diamond ruff, low Heart to North’s Jack, and another Diamond ruff. A less superhuman defense would be the J♥ opening lead, after which both defenders will see that menacing Club suit in Dummy and will see the need to gather their Diamonds while they may. One of the following may happen: - South plays the 9♥ on the opening trick, which by partnership agreement (with that singleton in Dummy) is a suit preference signal for Diamonds, surely saying here “I have the Ace or the King”. North will now have to guess between leading low to South’s hoped for doubleton King (now the defense has three Diamond tricks) and the actual singleton King holding (in which case A♦ and a ruff is the best that the defense can do). - South overtakes the opening Heart lead and shifts to the K♦. Again, North must guess the Diamond holding to get the maximum number of tricks.
How is North supposed to guess correctly in this situation? Well, the logic is somewhat obscure, but if South wants North to win the first Diamond (let’s say she has a small singleton) or if she has a worthless doubleton Diamond holding and wants to lead through Declarer, she will surely overtake the Heart. When she doesn’t do that, it seems reasonable to deduce that she North be playing a low Diamond at Trick Two, counting on South to have a high Diamond and at least two of them. So, if the defenders are on the same page, South will win the first trick and return the K♦, and North will overtake the Diamond and give Partner a ruff.
Not much going on here. N-S have an easy Spade game, making 11 tricks when the Hearts are friendly.
Shame on the computer for dealing us the second “All Pass” hand of the set! However, some Norths might open in first seat based on their quick tricks, in which case we might see this auction: West North East South 1♣ 1♠ Dbl 2♣ Pass 2♠ Pass Pass Pass How does East do in his 2♠ contract? Pretty well. South has an obvious K♣ opening lead, and now it takes good defense to hold Declarer to 8 tricks: K♣ won by Declarer’s Ace Low Club to North’s Ten North cashes the A♥ Heart to the King Heart ruff The defense can play two rounds now, but a single Club ruff in Dummy is all that Declarer needs.
Yes, 2♠ can be beaten if the defense leads a trump on the go. This is ducked by North, then when Declarer loses a Club, the defense cashes two Hearts, gets the Heart ruff, and play A♠ and out a Spade. A well-timed defense for down one!
The featured N-S pair were playing that 2♦ was forcing for one round, which only served to create a problem on the following round of bidding. At her second turn, North might have tried 3♠ instead of that non-forcing 3♦, but it mattered not, all roads led to 3NT, played from one side or the other.
Against 3NT, the defense will lead a Spade, and it’s reasonable to deduce from the bidding that East has six cards in the suit. That being the case, there is no point in ducking more than one round in the suit, so Declarer takes the Ace on the second round and must decide how to play the Diamonds. All things being equal, missing Kxx in a suit, we will finesse against the King, of course, but all things are certainly not equal on this hand. Consider the following: - On one hand, if the Diamond finesse loses, then East will cash his Spades for down two … - … but, on the other hand, if we play to drop the singleton King, and it turns out that West started with Kx or Kxx, then we have lost the Diamond suit for good, the North hand has no entries left, and we’ll end up down four in all likelihood. - The Diamond King is more likely to be with East, based on the bidding … - … but, on the other hand, there is still plenty of room in the West hand for that card.
It’s a tough guess to have to make, we have seen all the hands and plead the Fifth. Guess right and you make 12 tricks. Guess wrong and you make 5 tricks! Quite a difference!
A nuanced little part-score auction: - South’s 2♣ was Drury, showing Spade support and a decent (passed) hand. Please see the Bidding Quiz. - How does your partnership distinguish between North’s 2♠ and her alternative of Pass? Also in the Bidding Quiz.
The question now becomes “Can North make his 3♠ contract?”. East will start out by cashing the A♥ and K♥. Now, what should be East’s shift? A Diamond would be disastrous, giving Declarer a third trick in that suit. A Club shift would make it easy for Declarer to score three tricks there. It turns out that the safest shift is to a trump, but the respite is just temporary, Declarer cashes two high trumps, exits a trump and West is end-played, whatever he does will aid Declarer’s cause and 9 tricks will result.
A simple auction to the obvious game. 4♠ will usually make exactly 10 tricks but there is one unlikely defense which beats it: South leads a Club won by Declarer Low Heart, South jumps up with the King (dangerous, North might have singleton Ace!) Another Club Another Heart won by North’s Ace Club ruff That start, together with the A♦, adds up to down one.
We are not crazy about that Double by East, all too often it will lure the partnership into a 4-3 Heart fit. On the other hand, if East does not take action he might be frozen out of the auction completely.
It turns out that E-W were dicing with death when West quite reasonably bid 2♥. Perhaps N-S were playing Support Doubles, so that North did not have a penalty Double of 2♥ available. Or perhaps North was just a timid soul. Either way, E-W dodged a bullet, as 2♥ doubled was going for at least 800.
Playing in 2♠, it’s a straightforward 9 tricks and +140 for N-S.
West has a rather nice 8-count, with an extra trump and a singleton. We’d say that this is pretty close to a game invitation, but our featured West was no doubt discouraged by the thought that his singleton was in Partner’s first suit. This is usually a negative feature, but here the hands fit together rather well when East’s so-called suit turns out to be 4 small, a fine holding opposite a singleton. So, it’s 10 easy tricks for E-W.
North did well not to jump into the vulnerable fray with that unsightly and quacky collection, had she bid 2♣ she would have been raised to 3♣ for an unpleasant down two and -500 if doubled. 3♣ undoubled would still be terrible board.
Without interference, E-W come to rest in 3♦ for an easy 10 tricks. North will probably start the defense by cashing the A♣ and now Declarer’s plan becomes clear enough. One of the Spade losers will go away on the K♣, one of them will eventually be ruffed. But Declarer must play on the Spades immediately, here’s the suggested line of play: A♣ opening lead Heart shift, won by Dummy’s Ace Spade to the King Spade won by South Diamond shift won by West’s Ace Another Diamond is cashed Spade ruff K♣ pitching a Spade, etc Now the defense has a Diamond trick coming but that’s all.
What would be your plan with the West hand? It’s a pretty miserable 8-count, don’t you think? One possibility is to just pass, but we prefer our featured West’s attempt to find a 4-4 major fit. Having found one, he passed, happy that he had (hopefully) improved the final contract. But suppose that East had responded 2♦, now what? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
2♥ turns out to be a fine contract, at least when played by East. The best that the defense can do is to take two Spades, two Diamonds and a trump.
How does 1NT fare? Not very well! Let’s say that South leads a Club. This is won on the board, then the losing Heart finesse, another Club, etc. This line of defense gets North in twice for Spade leads and when the dust has cleared the defense will have secured three Spades, a Heart, two Diamonds, and a Club. Down one!
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