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Hand Analyses 18th July, 2007
South’s 2♦ was Michaels, showing the majors. East’s 5♦ was a close decision, he had enough defense and enough trumps to be a nuisance in 4♥, then again he also had enough offense to ensure that 5♦ would not be down more than one. In fact 5♦ would make if West were void in Hearts (quite possible on the auction) or if West had A♠ or K♠.
It turns out that West does not quite have the right hand and that 5♦ is down one trick. But that’s fine for E-W as 4♥ turns out to be a lucky make. Against 4♥, East leads the A♦, ruffed on the board. Now a Heart to the King and Ace, at which point should test the Spades by running the Nine. When this holds, she plays another Spade, and can now pick up both major suits for 10 tricks.
West might well have supported Partner’s Spades immediately, instead of introducing his own Heart suit, and it’s easy to imagine half the field playing in 4♥ and half in 4♠.
Those that play in Spades will be the lucky ones. Well, maybe. South lays down the A♦ and here’s how the play might go: A♦ ruffed on the board Heart to the King Q♦ (good play!) covered by the King and ruffed on the board Club ruff T♦ which South should duck Diamond ruff Club ruff Three rounds of trumps are drawn Now, if Declarer takes the Heart finesse, he makes all 13 tricks. And if the finesse loses he makes but 10 tricks. Of course, Declarer took quite a few risks to make those 13 tricks … he needed 3-2 Spades, and he needed to guess the Hearts right. A more middle-of-the-road approach would be to cash the A♥ after taking the second Diamond ruff which is likely to be good for 12 tricks even if North ruffs.
If West plays in 4♥, North leads a Diamond which Declarer ruffs. Now the best that Declarer can do is to take one Club ruff on the board, and draw trumps (guessing correctly) for 11 tricks.
Obligatory False Card Suppose that North had held JTx of Hearts. Then she has the chance to make a so-called “obligatory false card” by playing an honor on the first round of trumps. This is termed “obligatory” because it is the only play that gives Declarer a chance to go wrong (by finessing when the suit was 3-2 all along). Yes, Declarer can always play a second high Heart before committing to the finesse, but on the actual hand that was not possible due to the entry situation. Nor would it be possible in a situation such as this: 43 A5 KQ9876 JT2 Here, the Ace is played and South must be sure to play the Jack or the Ten, offering Declarer a losing option.
Good bidding by N-S, we would say. South stretched her hand into an invitational raise based on shortness in the enemy suit and those nice Clubs, and North went in the other direction based on her nasty Diamond holding.
Against 3♥, East leads the J♦ to the Queen and Ace. West must avoid shifting to the Q♠, that would blow the defensive Spade trick, so let’s say that he continues with a Diamond. Should Declarer ruff this on the board or win the King in her hand? The best line appears to be to ruff it on the board, then cash the A♣, pitching the K♦. Now a Spade to Ace and a Heart towards the board. East pops up with the Ace, and now Declarer is sure to make 9 tricks provided that she takes a deep Spade finesse and avoids a second Spade loser. Note the importance of playing one round of Spades before using up Declarer’s K♥ entry to the board … without that precaution it would be impossible for Declarer to avoid two Spade losers.
4♥ looks like the normal spot, and the question is whether N-S will get their Club ruff to beat the contract. Let’s say that South starts out with a Spade won by Declarer (North should play low). When South shows out on the second round of trumps, Declarer’s best chance is to leave those trumps out and play on Clubs in the hope that N-S fail to (or are unable to) negotiate a Club ruff. The best chance is to lead the first round of Clubs from the board giving North the chance to sleepily play low. Anyway, making 9 or 10 tricks, depending on the defense.
South’s 2♠ bid put West on the spot, and he chose to overbid somewhat rather than to sell out feebly to 2♠. That 3♠ was Lebensohl, the so-called “Stayman without a stopper”, after which E-W came to rest in a rather poor 22-point 3NT contract.
3NT may be a most poor contract, but it does have the virtue of being cold, thanks to the lucky lie of the Diamond suit. Let’s say that South leads the K♠ and that Declarer ducks. Declarer won’t know it yet, but he has 8 winners and the 9th could come from various sources, depending upon South’s play at Trick Two: - If South persists with Spades, the extra Spade is the 9th trick. - If South shifts to a Heart, Declarer has the timing to play on Clubs for the 9th trick, and this also brings in a 10th trick. - If South shifts to a Club, it’s 10 tricks again. - Strangely enough, it’s the Diamond shift at Trick Two which might prove to be Declarer’s undoing. First, consider what will happen if Declarer is left to tackle Diamonds himself. He’ll lay down the A♦, get the good news when the King drops, and finesse twice against South’s Jack. But look what happens if South shifts to a Diamond at Trick Two. Declarer could play low from the board, picking up the entire suit as before, but he also has a losing option, he might be tempted to play the Ten from Dummy, hoping that South has erred grievously and led a Diamond from Jxx in her attempt to reach Partner and get a Spade through Declarer. That Diamond shift was a Greek gift.
North decided that her mangy 8-count was not good enough for an invitation, a good assessment when one considers that, even opposite South’s maximum 17-count, 3NT is not much of a contract.
Against 1NT, West might reasonably make the attacking (and dangerous) lead of a low Spade or the safer (but less dynamic) lead of a low Club. Let’s start with a Spade lead to East’s Jack and Declarer’s Ace. Now Declarer does best to send a Spade right back, setting up a second trick in the suit, and 8 altogether when the Diamond finesse loses.
Next, suppose that the opening lead is a Club. Declarer wins on the board, loses the Diamond finesse, and Clubs are continued. Declarer can set up a second Spade winner, which would be her 8th trick, except for the minor detail that the defense gets their 6 tricks first (2 Spades, 2 Hearts, a Diamond and a Club). So, in practice, the safe lead of a Club holds Declarer to 7 tricks.
Opening Leads vs No Trump – Part 1 If you happily hit upon the best opening lead of a Club in the above hand, which Club did you lead? Fourth best is the most common opening lead against No Trump contracts, but some pairs make an exception when the lead is from 4 small (or sometimes 5 small), and start with their second highest. The purpose of this is to inform Partner that the lead is from a weak holding and that he should not expect an honor from the opening leader.
Opening Leads vs No Trump – Part 2 Against No Trump contracts, how strong does a KQ sequence have to be for us to lead the King? Here are some cases: - KQJx or KQJxx? Yes, we’d lead the King from these sequences. - KQ98x? We had that sequence on Board 5, and that too is strong enough for the lead of the King. - KQ9x? This one is scraping the bottom of the barrel, we’d lead the King here. - KQ8x? With this holding, or anything weaker, we’d start with a low card. Of course, against a suit contract, we’d lead the King from any KQ holding.
It’s easy to see how some E-W pairs might bid more on this one, but with the Club finesse losing and with two Heart losers, it turns out that 8 tricks is the maximum in Hearts. East had some choices on this one, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 2♥, North leads the Q♠, and South should overtake with the King to avoid blocking the suit. But, in practice, the unblock is not necessary, either way the defense scores two Spades, two Hearts, and a Club.
South decided that her hand was not good enough to bid 2♥ initially (it isn’t), but that it was too good for an immediate preempt, so she started with a Negative Double and then bid Hearts all the way up to the 4-level. We’re not convinced that the 4♥ bid was warranted, but it certainly works well on the actual hand.
Playing in Hearts, with the K♥ well-placed, Declarer has the three Aces to lose and must also take care of those potential Diamond losers. West will likely start with the A♣, followed by a shift to the K♥. Now, Declarer leads a Diamond from the board and East must grab his Ace just to hold Declarer to 10 tricks. If East smoothly ducks, then Declarer’s King wins, then a Diamond ruff, a Club ruff, and on the second Diamond ruff East’s Ace smoothly flutters to the table. 11 tricks for Declarer in that case.
How do E-W fare in a Spade contract? We see 9 tricks in E-W’s future, but only with careful play. Let’s say that South leads a Club, an obvious singleton. Declarer needs a Heart ruff on the board, but if he goes for it immediately he’ll suffer a Club ruff. Conversely, if he draws two rounds of trumps first, and then plays a Heart, North will draw Dummy’s last trump. The winning play is to draw just one round of trumps, and then to play a Heart. Far from obvious.
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