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Hand Analyses 11th July, 2007
A universal auction (at least for the Strong No Trump crowd) but the play could be interesting. There’s no reason for South not to lead a Club, and Declarer has 10 top tricks. Can he get an 11th? The obvious possibility for that extra trick is in Diamonds if the suit is 3-3. That does not work as it happens, but the opening Club lead and the subsequent run of the suit subject North to a pseudo-squeeze. North must find 5 pitches and the first is a painless Heart. But what about the next 4 pitches? North’s winning strategy is to dump the entire Heart suit, but our guess would be to get rid of the Spades, the suit which is shortest in Dummy and therefore more likely to be protected by South. Unlucky, that allows Declarer to establish the 11th trick in Spades. Even worse would be for North to get rid of all her Diamonds, that gives Declarer two extra tricks. The winning defense of pitching away all 5 Hearts would be wrong if Declarer started with more than two Hearts. North has a difficult problem, and it looks like pure guesswork to us.
North’s Redouble told Partner that she thought their side had the balance of the points, after which East bailed out to 2♦ and South gave Partner belated Spade support.
Against 2♠, there is no compelling reason to lead a trump, after all South gave belated support, no doubt she has 3-card support, quite possibly without a ruffing value. And there’s not much reason to lead from that Club holding when the suit has been bid by the opponents. That leaves a red suit, and East might reasonably lead either: - If East leads a Heart, the hand is over quickly. The 4th defensive trick is established, but so is the 9th trick for Declarer. +140 for N-S. - If East leads a Diamond, Declarer will harbor fond hopes for a 10th trick. All she needs is to pitch that Heart loser on the third round of Diamonds, and then hope that the Clubs come in for 4 tricks. They don’t, and it’s the same +140.
South’s active bidding landed her side in the soup. If South does in fact end up in 2♣ doubled she could well go down three on this line of play: A♠ opening lead Shift to a low Heart (surely East has the King) Shift to a Club, covered by the King and Ace J♣ continuation, won by Declarer’s Queen A♦ is cashed Diamond, ruffed by West T♣ is cashed Spade to Dummy’s King Now, Declarer has the last two trumps, and also Jxx of Diamonds, all three of which will lose to East’s KQT. Down three on this very fine defense by E-W. Here are all the good things that they did to get their 500: - West did not go after Diamond ruffs, that would only have weakened Partner’s Diamond holding, and, anyway, West is not sure he wants ruffs, he has natural trump tricks. - The low Heart shift was another good play, surely East has the King for his 1NT bid. - The Club shift was pretty obvious, perhaps, but necessary nonetheless. - After winning the A♣, West did well to continue trumps, even though he might be sacrificing a trump trick in the process.
As East, playing in 3♥, how do you propose to make 9 tricks on the opening lead of the K♠? Here is one road to ruin: K♠ opening lead, ruffed by Declarer J♣ led, South gives count, North ducks craftily T♣ won by North Club ruffed by South T♥ won by East Yes, ruin indeed, Dummy can still get a Diamond ruff, but that will be just 8 tricks. Nice defense by North but let’s remember that the aforementioned “crafty duck” was enabled by N-S giving count signals where appropriate. The duck would have looked quite foolish if Declarer started with just two Clubs, but South’s count signal makes the duck safe.
Of course, Declarer has no obligation to allow the defense to shine, and he would have done better to scramble 9 tricks via 2 Diamond ruffs on the board.
How do you like the featured auction? We don’t like it at all, we would open the South hand 2♣, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Anyway, 4♥ seems likely to be the final contract at most tables. Let’s say that West leads the K♦, ruffed by Declarer. Declarer draws trumps, and then ducks a Spade. If Spades are 3-3 and if the K♣ is onside then 12 tricks come home. As it happens, it’s only 11 tricks.
South’s 2♦ was Michaels, showing the majors, and East ends up on lead against 4♥. A Diamond leads looks natural enough, and that is ruffed on the board. Now a Club to Declarer’s Ace, a successful Heart finesse, then the A♥. With trumps 2-2, Declarer can afford to cross to hand on a Heart and finesse the Spade, making 12 tricks when the suit is 3-1.
A routine Stayman auction gets N-S to the obvious 3NT game. And an obvious 10 tricks also if East chooses to lead the Q♥. But let’s suppose that East leads 4th best from his longest and strongest, just like the textbooks say. Now there are a couple of those dreaded “traps for the unwary”. If you have reason to wonder about your wariness, you may care to check out Play Problem # 171.
We’d say that East had an awkward choice here between 3♠ and 5♦, either could work. If East chooses to apply pressure with a 5♦ bid, South will have no option but to double and that will be down one.
Suppose that East decides to bid more constructively, and chooses a 3♠ call over 3♣. The outcome is likely to be the same, we’d expect South to bid 5♣, and East to bid 5♦, which is where he will play it, doubled as before.
Of course, N-S are cold for 11 tricks in Hearts but it’s hard to see how they can get that suit into the auction, regardless of whether East’s first bid is 3♠ or 5♦.
The above auction is not all that it may seem to be. West’s 2♥ was DONT, showing the majors, which raises theoretical questions for N-S in terms of how to reach 3NT. For more on this please see the Bidding Quiz. In the meantime, we’ll simply say that North’s 2♠ said “I have something in Spades”, and South bid 3NT on the basis of a good Heart holding and extra values.
Against 3NT, what would be your opening lead from the West hand? West knows that North has Spades and presumably not Hearts, and that South has Heart and maybe also Spades. Also, if Partner had a decent Spade holding, he might well have doubled 2♠. So, all in all, the odds appear to favor a Heart lead, that’s the suit in which Partner is most likely to have help. And so it proves to be, a Heart lead beats the contract one trick. Declarer will duck two rounds of Hearts, and then go to work on the minor suits, but try as she may she can come to only 8 tricks.
If West makes the mistake of a Spade opening lead, that will present Declarer with her 9th trick.
Playing a 15-17 No Trump we would not be averse to opening 1NT here, but in the featured auction East chose to start with 1♣, after which his side got into a New Minor Forcing situation. East did not have 3-card Spade support, but he did have a super-maximum, so he jumped directly to game in No Trump.
After South’s opening Diamond lead, things are looking bleak for Declarer. He’ll play low from the board and North should insert the Ten, a necessary play if Declarer has the Q♦. Declarer’s Jack wins, and now the Clubs must be brought in for no losers. So, Declarer crosses to the K♥, runs the 9♣ (or the Six if he wants to show off), and, lo and behold, the improbable occurs, and the Clubs come in. Declarer now has 10 tricks.
Do you see how North might do better in the defense? It won’t be obvious at the table, but, when Declarer crosses to the K♥ and leads a Club, North does well to split her honors. Now, Declarer has a choice of plays and may guess wrong: - The successful line (after winning that first Club) is to cross to the A♠ and repeat the Club finesse. But how unfortunate that line would be if Diamonds were 4-4 and South has a Club trick. Now the setting trick is the K♠ - Another reasonable line, after North has produced that Club honor, is to play the Clubs from the top, hoping that North has QJ doubleton or that Diamonds are 4-4. Of course, on the actual lie of the cards, this line fails, so let’s give credit to North for offering Declarer the chance to go wrong. The above logic suggests that is would be good play by North to pop up with a Club honor whenever she holds Qx or Jx. Now, an unwitting Declarer might cross to the A♠, lose a Club finesse, and go down two or three instead of down just one.
We like North’s 3♣ bid, she reasonably deduced that Partner was likely to have a 5th Club, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
As West, what would be your opening lead against 3♣? Some players have a strong aversion to leading unsupported Aces, and that would serve West well here, he’ll lead a trump and now Declarer will likely end up down two. But even that is a decent result for N-S, considering that E-W can make 2♠.
An opening lead of the A♠ is particularly disastrous. It gives Declarer a Spade trick she was not entitled to, and it also allows her to score a Spade ruff on the board. A double whammy, and 9 tricks for Declarer.
East’s 1NT overcall is about as weak as such a bid can be … minimum point count, no fillers of any description, square shape. But at least it has a suitable Spade holding, and we certainly would not advocate passing with this hand. As for South, she knew that her side had an 8-card Spade fit, but she also reasoned correctly that the hand would likely play better in Hearts, and that her long suit was robust enough to play opposite shortness and unlikely to pull much weight in a Spade contract.
If West finds the J♠ opening lead against 3♥, it will be a fast down one, the defense scoring two Spades, a Spade ruff, the A♥ and the A♣. However, a Diamond opening lead is also quite reasonable, after which Declarer can make her contract in one of two ways … either she can finesse the Q♦ … or, more likely, she’ll go up with the A♦, and later get lucky when West turns out to have a doubleton honor in Spades.
A few might-have-beens on this auction: - South might have tried a light third-seat opening, but we really don’t see the point, she has no long suit and no strong suit, nothing worth mentioning in our view. - West might equally well have opened 1♦, many players prefer that to 1♣ when 4-4 in the minors. - North might have overcalled with her chunky 4-card Spade suit. That would have allowed her side to compete up to 2♠, but would also take the risk that Partner might compete to 3♠ (not good, on the actual hand that would be -200 on a part-score hand, even if undoubled).
Anyway, N-S can make 7 tricks in Spades, and the fortunate Diamond situation allows E-W to make 9 tricks in Diamonds.
Nice bidding by North, we would say. North knew that she did not want to defend 4♥, so she bid 4♠ right away, to exert maximum pressure. Maybe it would make, maybe it wouldn’t, but either way she wanted to be there.
Against 4♠ doubled, East leads a Heart and now it will be up to West to beat the contract. He must shift to a Diamond in the hope that Partner has the A♠ and can give him a Diamond ruff. Is this an obvious defense? We think so, after all what can Partner have for the limit raise promised by his 2♠ bid? Nothing in Hearts, not much in Diamonds, and surely not the AK♣, that would have been his opening lead. So, good reasoning by West gets a Diamond ruff, and that will be down one as Declarer must also lose a Club. Nonetheless, we’d predict that N-S won this board thanks to good bidding by North.
If North is made of feebler stuff, West might find himself as Declarer in 4♥. Let’s say that North leads a Spade. Dummy’s Ace wins and Declarer can see that this hand will not be made without at least a couple of Club tricks. He does best to cross to his hand with a trump and lead a Club towards the board. This brings in 10 tricks when the Clubs behave. 11 tricks are out of reach as Declarer cannot quite arrange to bring in the Clubs and get two Spade ruffs on the board.
Drury Note If you play Drury opposite Partner’s 3rd hand (potentially light) opening, then is it also on in the featured auction, where the 4th seat opponent overcalls 1♠? We suggest that it should be, but the important thing is that you and Partner play 2♣ the same way in this situation.
With an 8-card suit the tendency is to preempt to the 4-level, but here South had two good reasons to bid just 3♣. Firstly, she was Red vs White, not a favorable situation for bold preempting. Secondly, her suit was so good (headed by AK) that she was reluctant to zoom past 3NT. Alas, on the actual hand, she would have done better to zoom, because it is the opponents who can make 3NT! As it is, South’s 3♣ merely pushes the opponents into a 20-point 3NT game that they would not normally reach, and this contract comes rolling home (assuming that Declarer makes the right Diamond guess, as he surely should).
This week we have an unusual number of part-score battles and here is yet another one. The end result will no doubt be a Heart contract played by West or a Spade contract played by North.
If West plays in Hearts, North can hold Declarer to 8 tricks by leading a trump, which serves to stop the Spade ruff on the board. However, suppose that the defense starts a forcing defense by leading Diamonds. Can Declarer make 9 tricks? Yes, but the following line looks rather double dummy to us, we’d expect most Declarers to make just 8 tricks on any lead: Opening lead won by South’s A♦ Diamond continuation ruffed by Declarer Club to Dummy’s Ten and South’s King Diamond ruffed by Declarer A♣ is cashed Club to the Queen Diamond ruff (South pitches a Spade) A♠ is cashed Spade is lost to South’s Queen Now, in the 4-card ending, Declarer makes 3 more tricks whether South exits with a Spade or a trump. Nine tricks altogether.
If North plays in Spades, expect an undertrick or two. Suppose that East leads the A♥ and continues a Heart to Dummy’s King. Now a Heart ruff in Declarer’s hand is followed by a trump to Dummy’s Ten and West’s Jack. Then a Spade to East’s Ace, and a Diamond shift. Declarer will no doubt misguess this one, too (even though the K♦ would take East up to 11 HCP’s for his passed hand), and when the dust has cleared Declarer will have lost 2 trumps, a Heart, a Diamond, and two Clubs. Just seven tricks for Declarer. Well, it could have been worse … consider a Diamond lead won by West’s King, Heart to the Ace, Diamond ruff, Spade to the Ace, Diamond ruff, Heart exit (best), and the defense still has two Clubs to collect. That’s only 6 tricks for Declarer.
South declares 4♠ after a transfer sequence, and the success of the contract will depend upon Declarer picking up the Q♠. Will she? Yes, she certainly should, it’s usually correct to finesse towards the long hand and so it is here. Declarer cashes the A♠ first (catering for singleton Queen with East) and then runs the J♠ if the Queen does not appear.
West’s 3♦ was New Minor Forcing, and the 5-3 Heart fit was found. Against 4♥ North leads the Q♠, and Declarer’s prospects are bleak. The obvious play for the contract requires luck in Hearts plus something else. The Heart luck is with Declarer, he can pick up the suit for one loser notwithstanding the 4-1 break. How about the “something else”? The best chance is 3-3 Spades or a black suit squeeze but neither of these works and Declarer is left a trick short.
One route to 10 tricks is via a Dummy Reversal, here is a somewhat double dummy line for 10 tricks: Spade lead won by Declarer’s Ace Diamond won by South Heart shift won by Declarer’s Eight A♦ and ruff a Diamond A♣, K♣, and ruff a Club Cross to the K♠ Ruff another Club Declarer now has 9 tricks in the bag with the A♥ to come. Could North have messed things up by playing the Q♦ at Trick Two? No, Declarer wins this and plays a Diamond which South is forced to win, and the same 10 tricks materialize. It takes an opening lead of North’s singleton Heart to beat the contract.
Suppose that N-S end up in 3NT, played from the East side. It’s not much of a contract either, but it does have the redeeming quality of making. Well, perhaps: - If South leads a Spade, Declarer will win with his King (he fears a Diamond shift if he ducks the first round), play A♥ and run the 8♥, after which it’s 9 easy tricks. - If South leads a Diamond, Declarer will duck twice before playing on Hearts. The percentage play in Hearts is as before (cash the Ace and finesse on the second round), but here there is an additional consideration … if Declarer suspects that Diamonds are 5-3 with North having the 5, then he may decide to play A♥ and a Heart to the Queen, a somewhat inferior play in the suit, but the one that gives him the best chance to bring in the suit while keeping North off play. Good thinking by Declarer, but that will be down two.
E-W will probably compete to 3♦ on this deal and be rewarded with 9 tricks when the trump suit breaks. There’s not much to be said about this one!
Another routine auction. Against 4♥, North leads the A♣, then the K♣, and that should be it for the defense. When Declarer gets in, he’ll lay down the A♥ first, catering for a 4-0 split either way. His careful play pays dividends when South shows out of trumps and the J♥ can be picked up. Making 11 tricks.
Not so fast! South has the chance for a delicious swindle! Look at what might happen if South plays the Club Seven at Trick One. Then on the second round of Clubs South completes her fake high-low, and North perseveres with a third round. Who could blame Declarer if he fell for this hook, line and sinker? He’ll probably ruff high, wouldn’t you? Nice defense, Ms South!
East’s 3♣ was New Minor Forcing, and West’s 3♠ showed 4 Spades and denied 3 Hearts.
Against 3NT, we’d expect North to lead the J♣ which Declarer wins in his hand. Clearly he must set up the Hearts and one way for Declarer to misplay the hand is to cash the A♥ and run the Jack. An alert South will duck this trick, and now the best that Declarer can do is to score 8 tricks.
The winning line of play, after taking the opening Club lead in hand, is to cash A♥ and overtake the Jack with the Ace. This ensures that 4 Heart tricks are made, and 9 altogether.
West’s 3♠ bid took away any chance of a more constructive N-S auction, so North just bid what she hoped she could make. Let’s say that East finds the best lead of the T♥. Declarer wins the A♥ and must play on Spades before drawing trumps, it is essential to set up right away those Spade pitches for Declarer’s Clubs. Provided that Declarer takes this simple precaution, she’ll score up 11 tricks.
3NT also plays well, and will score better than 5♦ if the defense leads Spades. It takes the unlikely defense of a Heart lead and then a Club shift by West (when in with the A♦) to hold Declarer to 9 tricks.
Aggressive matchpoint bidding by both sides in the featured auction, with N-S coming out on top. West’s 3♠ was preemptive and undeterred by the vulnerability … South’s second Double was competitive, hoping that Partner would do the right thing … North’s Penalty Pass was certainly the right thing, though 4♣ was also a reasonable guess, too.
It turns out that 3♠ doubled is down two and 500. True, N-S can make a vulnerable game but that requires some luck and is unlikely to be bid at many tables.
It’s great fun, especially when non-vulnerable, to push around the opponents with bold preempts, but sometimes it rebounds and the opponents are pushed into a game they might otherwise not reach. Here is a case in point, East’s jump to 4♣ put South on the spot and she guessed to bid 4♥, going to game with slender values in the absence of a good alternative.
4♥ should be made, but not if Declarer adopts this careless line of play: Club won by Dummy’s Ace Spade to Declarer’s King Heart finesse losing to East’s Queen Spade won by Dummy’s Ace Heart won by West’s Ace Spade, ruffed on the board Diamond to Declarer’s King and West’s Ace Heart return Oops! Dummy is out of entries, with the Diamond suit still blocked. As a result, Declarer will be stuck in his hand with two black suit losers, and that will be down two.
The problem with the previous line of play was that Declarer did not play on Diamonds early enough. Let’s try again: Club won by Dummy’s Ace Diamond lost to West’s Ace Diamond return Heart misguessed, losing to East’s Queen Diamond return ruffed high by Declarer Now, thanks to better entry management by Declarer, it’s an easy 10 tricks.
Opposite a 2♣ opening bid, some players have strict requirements concerning the suit quality of a positive response. Today’s South was not thus inhibited and figured she should show some values right away. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz.
4NT was Roman Key Card Blackwood, 5♦ said “No Key Cards”, which was hardly a surprise to the player who had them all. Now, 5♠ was the Queen Ask, and 6♥ said, “Sorry, I don’t have that either!”
Against 6♥, we’d guess to lead a Spade from that East hand. Now Declarer is home free, assuming that trumps are 3-2, if that’s the case she can play A♥ and K♥, then take her Spade winners, letting the defense take their high trump whenever it suits them. Can Declarer cater for a 4-1 Heart break? Yes, she could try for a safety play, and, given the entry situation she’s probably best advised to cross to the K♣ at Trick Two and lead a low trump, planning to finesse the Ten. When that wins, Declarer is still not out of the woods. She can play A♥, and f West started with QJx, she’ll make all 13 tricks. But, if East shows out, care is required … if she plays A♦ and ruffs a Diamond, then plays the Spades, West will ruff a Spade and the K♦ will be the setting trick. So, she must give up on that Diamond ruff and hope to get the 12th trick in Clubs or Diamonds. Here is the full tragic as it unfolds: Spade lead to the Ten, Jack and Declarer’s Ace Club to Dummy’s King Heart to the Ten A♥ is cashed, East showing out K♥ is cashed Cash A♣ Lose a Heart to West Now West will return a Diamond and Declarer is put to the guess. Should she stake everything on the Diamond finesse? Or hope to develop a Club trick? Declarer might reasonably conclude that East is more likely to have the Club length, and that could induce her to take the losing Diamond finesse for an unlucky down one. It’s a very difficult hand.
How does 6NT fare? Let’s say that East again leads a Spade. Now the obvious line of play is to cash the A♣ and run the Ten around. When that loses, and when the K♦ is also offside, it’s an unlucky down one.
Does anybody think that the North hand is too good for a 15-17 1NT opening? It’s certainly debatable, please see the Bidding Quiz. And for the play in 3NT please see Play Problem # 172.
About thirty years ago it was a matter of some debate as to whether hands which were 5-5 in the black suits should be opened 1♣ or 1♠. Eventually, the 1♠ bidders won the day, that is the style generally used now. However, that style did not help South much on this board, he had an awkward guess after Partner’s Double of 3♥. The winning guess is to collect 300 by defending, but we don’t blame South for trying 4♣. That contract makes 10 easy tricks.
We would say that South had an awkward choice of bids, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 4♠, West must give Partner a prompt Diamond ruff, otherwise it is 11 tricks for Declarer. Will she? On these blood-and-thunder auctions it’s often a good idea to lay down an Ace, there’s usually an abundance of tricks around the table, and Declarer’s losers have been known to go away.
We find nothing wrong with any of those four Passes. Even the final Pass? Yes, that one too, the hand is square and fillerless, and has little to recommend it. Also, it fails the Cansino test (Spades plus HCPs at least 15) for a 4th suit opening.
But, suppose that West says “Phooey to that!”, and opens 1♣ anyway. Here’s what might happen: West North East South Pass Pass Pass 1♣ Dbl Rdbl 1♥ Pass Pass 2♣ Pass Pass Pass Another possibility is for N-S to compete to 2♥, and for E-W then to compete to 3♣.
Who makes what? In Clubs, West makes 9 tricks if he gets the Clubs right. The percentage play is to run the Jack, and, if it loses to North’s King or Queen, to play the Ace on the second round. This is not only correct in theory but also the winner on the actual lie of the cards.
Playing in Hearts it looks like 7 tricks, no more, no less.
West might have tried an Inverted Minor raise, but even if that particular convention were on our card we’d prefer the actual choice of 2NT with that square collection.
Against 2NT, if North leads a Club, the defense gets 4 fast tricks, Declarer pitching a Heart, and Dummy pitching a Heart and a Diamond. Let’s say that they then shift to a Heart. Declarer wins that and cashes Spades. When it is North that turns out to be short in Spades it seems reasonable to give her the Diamond length and play her for the Q♦. Making 9 tricks.
It took E-W a while to hit the jackpot but eventually they got to the fine contract of 6♥. For more on the E-W auction, please see the Bidding Quiz.
How about the play in 6♥ after North smartly lays down the A♣ and continues a Club? Please see Play Problem # 173.
We don’t know about you, but we prefer South’s 1♠ bid to a Takeout Double, but the Double could well work, and we wouldn’t argue with Pass either. But this is not a hand to get passionate about, let’s just say “Well done N-S if you managed to stay low and go plus!”
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