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Hand Analyses 11th July, 2007
A universal auction (at least for the Strong No Trump crowd) but the play could be interesting. There’s no reason for South not to lead a Club, and Declarer has 10 top tricks. Can he get an 11th? The obvious possibility for that extra trick is in Diamonds if the suit is 3-3. That does not work as it happens, but the opening Club lead and the subsequent run of the suit subject North to a pseudo-squeeze. North must find 5 pitches and the first is a painless Heart. But what about the next 4 pitches? North’s winning strategy is to dump the entire Heart suit, but our guess would be to get rid of the Spades, the suit which is shortest in Dummy and therefore more likely to be protected by South. Unlucky, that allows Declarer to establish the 11th trick in Spades. Even worse would be for North to get rid of all her Diamonds, that gives Declarer two extra tricks. The winning defense of pitching away all 5 Hearts would be wrong if Declarer started with more than two Hearts. North has a difficult problem, and it looks like pure guesswork to us.
North’s Redouble told Partner that she thought their side had the balance of the points, after which East bailed out to 2♦ and South gave Partner belated Spade support.
Against 2♠, there is no compelling reason to lead a trump, after all South gave belated support, no doubt she has 3-card support, quite possibly without a ruffing value. And there’s not much reason to lead from that Club holding when the suit has been bid by the opponents. That leaves a red suit, and East might reasonably lead either: - If East leads a Heart, the hand is over quickly. The 4th defensive trick is established, but so is the 9th trick for Declarer. +140 for N-S. - If East leads a Diamond, Declarer will harbor fond hopes for a 10th trick. All she needs is to pitch that Heart loser on the third round of Diamonds, and then hope that the Clubs come in for 4 tricks. They don’t, and it’s the same +140.
South’s active bidding landed her side in the soup. If South does in fact end up in 2♣ doubled she could well go down three on this line of play: A♠ opening lead Shift to a low Heart (surely East has the King) Shift to a Club, covered by the King and Ace J♣ continuation, won by Declarer’s Queen A♦ is cashed Diamond, ruffed by West T♣ is cashed Spade to Dummy’s King Now, Declarer has the last two trumps, and also Jxx of Diamonds, all three of which will lose to East’s KQT. Down three on this very fine defense by E-W. Here are all the good things that they did to get their 500: - West did not go after Diamond ruffs, that would only have weakened Partner’s Diamond holding, and, anyway, West is not sure he wants ruffs, he has natural trump tricks. - The low Heart shift was another good play, surely East has the King for his 1NT bid. - The Club shift was pretty obvious, perhaps, but necessary nonetheless. - After winning the A♣, West did well to continue trumps, even though he might be sacrificing a trump trick in the process.
As East, playing in 3♥, how do you propose to make 9 tricks on the opening lead of the K♠? Here is one road to ruin: K♠ opening lead, ruffed by Declarer J♣ led, South gives count, North ducks craftily T♣ won by North Club ruffed by South T♥ won by East Yes, ruin indeed, Dummy can still get a Diamond ruff, but that will be just 8 tricks. Nice defense by North but let’s remember that the aforementioned “crafty duck” was enabled by N-S giving count signals where appropriate. The duck would have looked quite foolish if Declarer started with just two Clubs, but South’s count signal makes the duck safe.
Of course, Declarer has no obligation to allow the defense to shine, and he would have done better to scramble 9 tricks via 2 Diamond ruffs on the board.
How do you like the featured auction? We don’t like it at all, we would open the South hand 2♣, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Anyway, 4♥ seems likely to be the final contract at most tables. Let’s say that West leads the K♦, ruffed by Declarer. Declarer draws trumps, and then ducks a Spade. If Spades are 3-3 and if the K♣ is onside then 12 tricks come home. As it happens, it’s only 11 tricks.
South’s 2♦ was Michaels, showing the majors, and East ends up on lead against 4♥. A Diamond leads looks natural enough, and that is ruffed on the board. Now a Club to Declarer’s Ace, a successful Heart finesse, then the A♥. With trumps 2-2, Declarer can afford to cross to hand on a Heart and finesse the Spade, making 12 tricks when the suit is 3-1.
A routine Stayman auction gets N-S to the obvious 3NT game. And an obvious 10 tricks also if East chooses to lead the Q♥. But let’s suppose that East leads 4th best from his longest and strongest, just like the textbooks say. Now there are a couple of those dreaded “traps for the unwary”. If you have reason to wonder about your wariness, you may care to check out Play Problem # 171.
We’d say that East had an awkward choice here between 3♠ and 5♦, either could work. If East chooses to apply pressure with a 5♦ bid, South will have no option but to double and that will be down one.
Suppose that East decides to bid more constructively, and chooses a 3♠ call over 3♣. The outcome is likely to be the same, we’d expect South to bid 5♣, and East to bid 5♦, which is where he will play it, doubled as before.
Of course, N-S are cold for 11 tricks in Hearts but it’s hard to see how they can get that suit into the auction, regardless of whether East’s first bid is 3♠ or 5♦.
The above auction is not all that it may seem to be. West’s 2♥ was DONT, showing the majors, which raises theoretical questions for N-S in terms of how to reach 3NT. For more on this please see the Bidding Quiz. In the meantime, we’ll simply say that North’s 2♠ said “I have something in Spades”, and South bid 3NT on the basis of a good Heart holding and extra values.
Against 3NT, what would be your opening lead from the West hand? West knows that North has Spades and presumably not Hearts, and that South has Heart and maybe also Spades. Also, if Partner had a decent Spade holding, he might well have doubled 2♠. So, all in all, the odds appear to favor a Heart lead, that’s the suit in which Partner is most likely to have help. And so it proves to be, a Heart lead beats the contract one trick. Declarer will duck two rounds of Hearts, and then go to work on the minor suits, but try as she may she can come to only 8 tricks.
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