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Hand Analyses 4th July, 2007
We managed to contrive an auction in which N-S arrive at the par spot of 2♠, making 8 tricks. But it’s easy to see how all sorts of different results might occur around your local Club. Here are a couple of other possibilities: - East might well have opened with a preemptive 3♦, we know that we would have done, this hand is all about Diamonds with not much in the way of defense. If East does indeed open 3♦, South will surely bid 3♠, at which point N-S are destined to go minus in 3♠ or 4♠ (North might raise to game). - In the featured auction, West might well Double 2♠, after all he can hardly have a better defensive hand (three likely trump tricks, shortness in Partner’s suit, maximum high-card strength). If this happens, East will surely pull the Double to 3♦, no doubt wondering at the same time why he failed to bid 3♦ originally. 3♦ will probably escape a Double, and will be down two.
As a matter of fact, if East ends up playing in Diamonds he could be held to 6 tricks: A♣, K♣, Club ruff, three Hearts are cashed, then a 4th Heart promotes a trump trick.
North had a classic rebid problem, and chose 2NT. Not ideal, of course, with no stopper in the unbid suit, but, as her side was playing that the 4th suit would be forcing to game, she decided that 2NT was the least undesirable option.
3NT is a dicey contract, but, thanks to the friendly Heart situation, it’s quite likely that 10 tricks will be made. Let’s say that East leads a Diamond, and that Dummy’s King is taken by West’s Ace. Back comes a Diamond to Declarer’s Jack, then a Heart to Declarer’s Queen, a Heart finesse, and the Hearts are good. The defense does better to lead a Club, that holds Declarer to 9 tricks.
It’s often a good idea to lead through Dummy’s second suit, so East might well start out the defense with the Q♠. Things could get interesting now, especially if East has a vivid imagination: Spade lead, won by Dummy’s Ace Low Heart and East flies with the Ace! Now, the defense continues Spades and Declarer’s entry is knocked out before the Hearts can be unblocked. Declarer can manage no more than 3 Spades, one Heart, two Diamonds, and 2 Clubs, and that will be down one, thanks to East’s great play. Spot the flaw in this logic? Yes, of course, if East can be so smart, then so can Declarer … when East rises majestically with that A♥, Declarer flamboyantly jettisons Dummy’s Queen! Now things are back on track for 10 tricks.
The featured auction turned out disastrously for them, but we don’t think that either E-W player did anything terrible to earn their zero. North’s Double was somewhat speculative, of course, no doubt partly induced by the opponents’ vulnerability, and the lure of the +200. Instead, they got the dreaded -730. North leads a Diamond, Declarer ruffs the second round and is overruffed, but now Declarer scampers home with 5 trump tricks in his hand, a Heart, a Heart ruff on the board, and two Club tricks.
Yes, this is our nomination for Flattest Board of the Week. 4♠ making 11 tricks.
We would not expect the field to have much trouble finding the 3NT contract, but how many pairs will actually make it? The auction is likely to persuade East to lead his top Club, after which Declarer has much work to do in the red suits, but precious few entries to the board. We don’t see how to make 9 tricks unless the defense goofs or unless Declarer finds this double dummy line of play: Club lead, won by West Club continuation, won on the board T♦, covered by the Jack (necessary) and Queen A♦ is cashed Q♦ is led (forcing a Dummy entry) and won by West’s King Club returned to Declarer’s King A♠ is cashed A Diamond won in Dummy K♠ is cashed Heart to the Eight and East’s King Q♠ is cashed Now, whether East returns a Spade or a Heart, Declarer has the last two tricks, and 9 altogether. In real life, expect down one or even two at most tables.
East’s preempt created a problem for both of his opponents, and we wonder how many of the N-S pairs will be good enough (or lucky enough) to get to 3NT after that 2♥ opening. In the featured auction South decided that her hand was not worth a Takeout Double (we agree), and North tried a stopperless 2NT bid, a reasonable gambit in the situation. For more both of these please see the Bidding Quiz.
The play for N-S is considerably simpler for N-S than the bidding. Whether East leads his Hearts from the top (not recommended with that holding), or his 4th best Heart, it will be 10 tricks for Declarer.
We’d expect at least half the N-S field, unable to diagnose their Heart stop, will play in 5♦, which turns out to be a sad contract. The fate of that contract is sealed on the third round of Hearts, promoting a trump trick for West. Then it becomes down two when the Spade finesse fails.
East added up his Cansino points (Spades plus HCP’s), got an answer that was less than 15, and chose to pass. This methodology has something to recommend it, as it recognizes the importance of the Spade suit on hands where the points are fairly equally divided.
Whether or not the Cansino-count is effective on this particular deal is difficult to assess. If East opens 1♣, the final contract is likely to be 2♠ by North, or 3♦ by West. Which side will go plus? 2♠ goes off if East finds a Spade lead, but we’d think that a Diamond lead is more likely. Now Declarer can manage 8 tricks … there are 5 trump tricks, a Diamond ruff, the A♣ for 7 ... the 8th trick occurs when East gets end-played. For example: Diamond lead won by West Trump shift Lose another Diamond Trump continuation Diamond ruff At this point, East is surely marked with the A♥ for his opening bid, so it would be futile to lead towards the K♥. A better plan is to exit with a low Club, hoping that East has the K♣ and Q♣ also. East wins the trick and must now surrender Declarer’s 8th trick, whether he leads a Club or a Heart.
How about 3♦? Again, a trump lead is best for the defense. Now, the only way that Declarer can come to 9 tricks is to take an anti-percentage play in Clubs, finessing against the JT instead of playing North for the Ace. So, in real life, down one on a trump lead. Suppose, instead, that North starts out with the A♠, and then, seeing the error of her ways, smartly shifts to a trump. Can Declarer make 9 tricks without taking the anti-percentage Club play? The play starts like this: A♠ cashed Trump to the King and Ace Spade lost to South’s King Trump won by Declarer Spade ruff At this point, Declarer must find a way back to his hand to draw that last trump. South (who passed originally) has shown up two Kings, and it’s safe to assume that she does not have both the K♥ and the A♣, but that she surely has one of them. The simple and obvious play is to lead a low Heart now, playing South for the King. Alas for Declarer, the K♥ is over the Queen, so North wins and returns a Club (or a Heart) locking Declarer in Dummy. Now, Declarer has no way to prevent the T♦ from scoring a trick. Down one.
We don’t see why he should, but Declarer can make his contract if he plays for the K♥ and the A♣ to be switched. After taking the Spade ruff, he plays the K♣. South can win the first or second round of the suit and return a Club (breaking open the Hearts would be fatal for the defense), but either way, North will be forced to win the third round of Clubs. Again, breaking open the Hearts would be fatal, so he returns a Spade. That is ruffed by Declarer, the last trump is drawn, and the 13th Club becomes the 9th trick.
After North’s invitational 3♣, South had enough to go to game. But which game? She didn’t know, so she tried 3♦, hoping that Partner could bid 3NT. It turned out that North had no Diamond stopper either, but she was able to show undisclosed 3-card Spade support. With such good Spades, South was delighted to try 4♠ in preference to the lower-scoring 5♣. Nicely bid!
As can be seen, the 7-card Spade suit and the 10-card Club suit both score 11 tricks. The N-S hands have the perfect ingredients for a Moysian (4-3) adventure: - Good trump suit - The shortness in the weak suit is in the hand with the 3 trumps, protecting against a forcing defense - A source of tricks in a side-suit
Yes, 3NT also makes, but only because Diamonds are kind enough to be split 4-4. 4♠ is the place to be and it gets N-S a well-deserved top board.
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