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Hand Analyses 20th June, 2007
Those E-W preempts certainly put N-S to the guess. South’s first bid was a Negative Double, of course, necessitated because she did not have the values for a direct 3♥ bid. North’s Double showed extra values, and South had an awkward guess, whether to pass or bid 5♥. We think it’s a pretty close choice either way.
The winning guess is to bid 5♥, a contract which will make 11 tricks with normal play (the singleton K♥ will score a trick unless Declarer is blessed with X-ray vision). As for 4♠, it’s down only two and a good save against the opponents’ game.
E-W may well buy this one in 1NT as neither North nor South have an obvious way into the auction. Against 1NT, South leads a 4th best Heart which looks disastrous at first sight. But in reality it costs nothing, Declarer always had exactly 8 tricks one way or the other and the low Heart lead merely saves Declarer the trouble of setting up a Club trick.
A simple enough transfer auction, and against 2♠ we’d expect the opening lead of the Diamond Seven, primarily for want of a better alternative. West will read this lead as a likely singleton or doubleton (though J87 and K87 and KJ7 are also possible) and, if he plans to give Partner a ruff, he must guess which. Meanwhile, Declarer has some guessing of her own to do, she must decide how to play the trump suit. All things being equal (which they rarely seem to be!), when playing the Spade suit, it’s a close choice between leading towards the long hand and playing the Queen, or inserting the Nine (or Seven). Here’s what might happen: - West guesses that Partner has led a singleton, so wins the first Diamond with the Ace and sends back a Diamond … Declarer’s Ten wins the trick, which holds, and Declarer now leads a Spade towards Dummy … East smoothly plays low, and Declarer (eager to keep West off lead) hopefully plays the Queen and is pleasantly surprised when it holds! Now a small Spade from the board and eventually Declarer will come to 9 tricks. - In fact, the play is not that dissimilar if West plays East for a doubleton Diamond. He ducks the first Diamond, and again Declarer will have to make her Spade guess. Jumping up with the Queen (assuming East plays low) is the winner, and brings in 9 tricks, finessing results in just 8 tricks.
A DONT Note Our “Do you or DONT you?” empirical study is designed to measure the effectiveness of “DONTing” with 4-4 hands. But here E-W are vulnerable, and our arbitrary rules of engagement require 12 HCP’s to DONT with 4-4 in the direct seat. East has but 11, so this deal does not qualify for the study, and the score remains: DONT Robots 3 Solid Citizens 3
Just as on Board 2, N-S go quietly here and let East play a contract at the one-level. North is in the balancing seat and is the one who is generally expected to keep the auction alive, but here with 6 points and 3 Clubs she is somewhat stuck for a bid. She might have considered doubling anyway, but that would probably not have been a success … South does best to pass (but N-S must also defend well), but may well bid 1NT or 2♠, both of which are destined to go down.
Defending against 1♣ (doubled or otherwise), South leads the T♥, after which Declarer cashes the AK♥ and exits a Heart. Back in with the T♥, South has no good exit. A Club looks like the best shot, North wins the Ace, and sends a Spade through. The finesse loses, and again South is stuck for an exit. She won’t know that a Spade exit is safe and will probably cash her Clubs and exit a Club. Declarer cashes the 13th Heart, but 6 tricks is all she can manage.
On opening lead against 4♥, South might well lead her singleton Diamond, and this is not a success. Now, Declarer can win the Diamond in his hand (North is advised to play low, but it comes out the same in practice), draw two rounds of trumps and lead a Club towards Dummy. Now, the Spade loser will be pitched on a Club, and 11 tricks made. It takes a Spade lead to hold Declarer to 10 tricks.
North had a choice of responses after South’s 1♣ opening bid, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. For the time being let’s just say that North’s 2♣ was an “Inverted Raise”, showing a limit raise (or better) in Clubs and denying a 4-card major. As for the rest of that strange-looking auction, South’s 3♦ was a Splinter (showing Diamond shortness in other words), and what followed was governed by the N-S Roman Key Card methods. For the time being we’ll just say that this pair was playing Redwood, so 4♦ asked for Key Cards (5♣ said “two with the Q♣), and 5♦ was the King Ask (6♣ said “None”). For more on the Key Card part of the auction, and some alternative methods, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 6♣, let’s say that West leads a low Spade. Declarer can count 10 top tricks, and one way to get to 12 is to ruff two Clubs in her hand. This is a piece of cake if trumps are 2-2, of course, but those ruffs must be taken before drawing trumps in the more likely case that trumps are 3-1. So, if Declarer is persuaded that two Diamond ruffs is the way to go she might go down in her cold contract with this unsuccessful line of play: West leads a low Spade, won by Declarer’s Ace Diamond to the Ace and a Diamond ruff Club to the Ace Diamond ruffed by Declarer’s Ten and overruffed by West’s Jack Trump return Now, Declarer’s hand is trumpless, and the only way to score a 12th trick is the Heart finesse. When that loses, it’s down one.
A better line is to draw trumps immediately. If trumps are 2-2, then Declarer can get her two Diamond ruffs in peace and can try the Heart finesse for a 13th trick. When trumps turn out to be 3-1, Declarer has just one Diamond ruff, so the Heart finesse is taken (before the Diamond ruff) … the finesse will lose, but it will still generate an extra Heart trick. Making 12 tricks.
In the featured auction, N-S end up in the wrong black suit. Only 8 tricks are available in Clubs, but this line of play brings in no fewer than 9 tricks in Spades, despite the 4-1 trump break (let’s assume that it is played by South): K♥ lead, won by Declarer’s Ace Club to the Jack and East’s Ace Heart is cashed Heart is ruffed Finesse of the Q♠ Cash A♠ Cash Q♣ Cross to the K♣ Now, East, who has two master trumps, can ruff or not, but either way it will be 9 tricks for Declarer.
West’s 2NT was the Unusual No Trump, showing the minors. North’s Double showed a good hand. East showed his preference for Clubs, and South got her Spade suit into the auction. Now North had an awkward problem and guessed to bid 3NT, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 3NT, one would expect East to lead a Club and that will be 12 tricks for Declarer when the Heart suit behaves. Do you see how East can hold Declarer to 11 tricks? Yes, either a Spade or a Diamond opening lead will do it. In those cases, Declarer must use both her Spade entries for Heart plays, and cannot cash both her Clubs before the A♥ has been knocked out. As a result, one of the Club tricks winners will be stranded.
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