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Hand Analyses 13th June, 2007
South’s Double was a Support Double, showing 3-card support for North’s Hearts, and North guessed to bid 1NT even without a Spade stopper. A pretty safe guess, though, in the absence of a Spade raise from West it seemed quite likely that South had something in Spades.
1NT contracts are notoriously difficult to play and defend and this one is no exception. Let’s try it with a Diamond lead: Q♦ opening lead, won by Dummy’s Ace Club to the Queen Club to Dummy’s King and West’s Ace Club to Dummy’s Jack (nothing else helps the defense) The last Club is cashed, East must pitch a Diamond Finesse of the Diamond Eight The J♦ is taken by West’s King At this point, Declarer has 8 sure tricks, but West is on lead and must concede a 9th trick one way or another. Breaking open either major is sure to cost a trick, so West tries a “safe” Diamond exit. But not so safe! Here is the end position: Declarer ♠ J5 ♥ KQ3 ♦ T ♣ West East ♠ K6 ♠ Q98 ♥ J65 ♥ A94 ♦ 9 ♦ ♣ ♣ Dummy ♠ AT4 ♥ T87 ♦ ♣ Declarer wins the Diamond, and now East is squeezed. If he pitches a Spade then Declarer ducks a Spade and scores the long Spade in Dummy. If he pitches a Heart, then Dummy pitches a Spade … Declarer now leads the K♥ won by East, East exits a Spade won on the board, and now the lead of the T♥ squashes East’s Nine and builds an extra Heart trick. Nine tricks for Declarer.
That Diamond lead was a disaster for the defense, they should be able to score 5 tricks on a Spade lead, though the play looks extremely complicated.
North figured that her hand was too good for a 3-level preempt so she bid up to 3♠ one level at a time. Perhaps that 3♠ bid was somewhat risky, considering the vulnerability, but even if she had passed we suspect that South might have been emboldened by the opponents’ double fit to bid 3♠. After all, if E-W have a large number of red cards then N-S have an equally large number of black cards.
If N-S get to play in Spades, they will make 9 tricks, there is nothing of note in the play.
Deep Finesse says that E-W can make 9 tricks in Hearts and 10 in Diamonds, but that requires good guessing in both Diamonds and Clubs. Our prediction is that 8 in Hearts and 9 in Diamonds is more likely at most tables.
After Partner has opened 1NT there are various methods available for Responder when she holds 5-4 in the majors with invitational or game-going values. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz. Anyway, all that is moot, East can hardly not bid his 8-card Diamond suit and that turns out to be a disaster when South has the perfect hand for a Penalty Double. When the dust has cleared, East is down two for -500.
If E-W buy it in 3♣, there will be nothing to the play and 9 tricks will be made. But, suppose that N-S boldly compete to 3♥. Can North make 9 tricks on the opening lead of the K♣? Please see Play Problem # 160.
East’s 2♣ was Drury, showing Spade support and decent values and asking Partner if his 3rd seat opening was sound. Not only was the opening sound but it was also blessed with substantial extras, so West jumped straight to game, seeing no reason to mess around when slam is not on the horizon.
In the play to 4♥, Declarer has 8 tricks plus whatever he can get from the Club suit. It’s possible to get three Club tricks by dropping that doubleton Ten, but normal play is to finesse twice against South and that will be just two Club tricks and 10 altogether.
However, if North’s opening lead is the T♣, this gives Declarer his eleventh trick on a plate. In fact, it’s doubly disastrous because it also gives Declarer the timing for a twelfth! Declarer wins the Club lead in hand with the Jack, cashes all his Hearts, and plays on Spades. North wins her Ace on the first or second round, but when Dummy later cashes the third round of Spades, South will be squeezed in the minors.
Two Notes for Squeeze Buffs Note 1: After that unfortunate T♣ opening lead, it was necessary for Declarer to cash all those trumps first, before playing on Spades in order to manage the entries for the squeeze. If Declarer were to play just three rounds of trumps, and then play on Spades, North would duck the first Spade, win the second Spade, and shift to a Diamond. Goodbye, squeeze, Dummy’s last entry is knocked out prematurely. Note 2: If Declarer wins the T♣ lead with the Jack and is astute enough to cash 5 Hearts immediately, North can shine on defense. She simply ducks two rounds of Spades! In the 5-card end-game, South will still be squeezable in the minors, but it will be a throw-in squeeze, risking defeat if North started with either missing Diamond honor. Obscure stuff!
Only 9 HCP’s, and vulnerable to boot, but we know that we would not hesitate to open that East hand with 1♠. Then, once South has made a 2/1 overcall, North will surely go to game with that nice 12-count.
Against 3NT, an opening lead of the J♥ is ruinous to Declarer, setting up 4 Hearts, 2 Spades and a Diamond for the defense, and down an ignominious three tricks. But East won’t lead a Heart, instead he’ll be torn between a Spade and a Club: - A low Spade looks attractive, all it needs from Partner is a couple of small Spades and an entry (perhaps in their Diamond suit), and the suit is likely to come home. Alas for the defense, Dummy is the one with the King and a small Spade lead works poorly. But heads-up play by West saves the day! See below. - A Club lead also looks attractive. North is obviously ready for a Spade lead, she may be less comfortable with Clubs. A 4th best Club lead gives Declarer an extra Club trick, but it’s still down one. Yes, indeed, the bizarre opening lead of the T♣ beats the contract three tricks!
OK, back to 3NT on the opening lead of a low Spade. Dummy’s King wins, Declarer plays on Diamonds, conceding the 4th round to West. Now, a Spade shift won by East, at which point a shift to the J♥ is essential. If Declarer assumes that East is not trying some monumental bluff in the Heart suit then she’ll hop up with the Ace, and cash the remaining Diamonds, coming down to this position: Declarer ♠ JT ♥ ♦ ♣ A9 West East ♠ ♠ Q ♥ KT ♥ 4 ♦ ♦ ♣ K7 ♣ QT Dummy ♠ ♥ Q3 ♦ ♣ J3 At this point, Declarer’s best hope is to end-play West into letting Dummy’s Q♥ score a trick. So, he leads a Club from the board, planning to play A♣ and out a Club. But West scotches that plan by rising majestically with the K♣, and now it’s down one. Alert defense wins the day!
A cut-and-thrust part-score auction gets North into a 3♦ contract. At first glance, it looks as if 3♦ might make 10 tricks, Declarer losing just two Spades and the A♦. But repeated Club leads (or a trump lead followed by repeated Club leads) cause Declarer to lose control and she is even in danger of going down if she follows this line of play: A♣ opening lead, ruffed by Declarer Diamond to West’s Ace Club ruffed by Declarer Two more rounds of trumps Now Declarer is out of trumps and can score no more than 4 Hearts and 4 Diamonds. Declarer never scores a Spade trick, because the defense gets 3 Clubs and two Aces first.
OK, Take Two. How does Declarer get to 9 tricks after the A♣ opening lead? Perhaps the best solution is to decline to ruff, pitching a Spade instead. Let’s say that East continues with a Club to West’s King, which we ruff. Now, a Diamond to the King and West’s Ace, at which point, if West persists with Clubs, we’ll pitch another Spade, setting up our 9th trick in Clubs. The defense scores two Clubs and the A♦ and the A♠, but that’s it.
In 1NT, the obvious Diamond lead from North makes Declarer’s life easy, he’ll score three Diamonds, three Hearts and two black Aces.
Note For DONT Aficionados Many DONT players in the South seat would not dream of selling out to 1NT when they have two 4-card suits and a smattering of values. So, here we have the latest instalment in our ongoing empirical study, entitled “Do you or DONT you?” and designed to test the effectiveness of those 4-4 DONT bids. Here are the rules of engagement: In Direct Seat: Use DONT when 4-4 with10+ HCP’s when not vulnerable Use DONT when 4-4 with 12+ HCP’s when vulnerable In Balancing Seat: Use DONT with any 4-4 hand The Opening Side: The 1NT Opener doubles with two likely trump tricks His Partner doubles with 8+ HCP’s and 2+ trumps or with 6+ HCP’s and 3 trumps According to those rules, South comes in with a 2♥ bid (Hearts and Spades), gets doubled, and goes down 3 tricks. A disaster for the Robots! The running score is now: DONT Robots 3 Solid Citizens 3
A simple hand. East leads a Heart, Dummy’s Jack wins, and Declarer has 11 tricks when the Diamond finesse works.
West’s 1♠ was natural, if he had wanted to invoke “Fourth Suit Forcing” he would have had to jump to 2♠.
It turns out that the featured auction has wrong-sided the contract. What should be South’s opening lead? All the suits have been bid and it seems more promising to “lead through strength”, which is to say one of Dummy’s suits. If South leads a Spade she will hit the jackpot, holding Declarer to 9 tricks on all normal lines of play. But, she may well try the J♦ and this will not be a success, allowing the Diamond suit to be set up and 11 tricks to be made.
Walsh Addendum Partnerships who embrace the Walsh style, will bypass that Diamond suit and have the following auction: West North East South 1♣ Pass 1♠ Pass 2♥ Pass 3NT Pass Pass Pass Now the contract is right-sided, at least if you are looking at all four hands. This time it will be North’s turn to lead through strength and she will probably choose a Heart, won by Declarer’s Queen. 11 tricks are possible with an inspired view in Diamonds, but that’s much against the odds and we’d expect 9 tricks at most tables.
In the featured auction, N-S are playing Weak Jump Shifts. East is clearly going to game with his hand and chooses to double first. Anyway, 4♥ is the final contract, and 10 tricks will surely result. The defense will score two Spades and the A♥, or else two Aces and a Spade ruff.
Of course, many pairs do not have that preemptive 3♦ at their disposal, they may well be playing Bergen Raises, or Strong Jump Shifts. In that case, after South’s 1♠ opening, North should pass and the auction might develop as follows: South West North East 1♠ Pass Pass Dbl 2♣ Pass 3♦ 4♥ Pass Pass Pass
East balances with a Double, and North gets to make her 3♦ preempt anyway. East should now bid 4♥ all on her own, but even if she is less ambitious and bids only 3♥, we would expect West to take it in with three card support, the K♣, and a possible ruffing value in Diamonds.
For this difficult hand we have declined to complete the E-W auction, and instead refer you to the Bidding Quiz.
E-W are destined to play in 3NT or 4NT or 6NT. How many tricks will be made? It turns out to be a remarkably friendly hand for Declarer. The Spade finesse works, likewise the Heart finesse, the Diamonds can be picked up, and North’s singleton J♣ makes 4 more tricks possible in that suit. All this good fortune adds up to 14 tricks and if a 15th is required then there may be a major suit squeeze against North.
Having said all that, it is far from clear that E-W even belong in slam. There are just 9 top tricks and lots of work to do. It seems that some major suit finessing is required, let’s see how things might pan out: - In only one major suit finesse works, then the preferred case is that the Heart finesse loses and the Spade finesse wins. That gets us up to 11, and now we need 3-3 in Spades or in Diamonds for 12, with additional squeeze chances or a miracle in Clubs. Yes, in this case we are a strong favorite. - If the Heart finesse wins and the Spade finesse loses, things are less happy. We are up to 10 tricks only, and will require 3-3 in both Spades and Diamonds, or a Club miracle. Not a cheerful prospect. - If both major suit finesses work, we are up to 11 without having lost a trick, it seems likely that 12 will be made one way or the other. - If both major suit Queens are offside, we are down, at least on normal play. Let’s categorize this slam as distinctly iffy.
You may be wondering if East really has a 3♣ bid and we would be inclined to wonder with you, at least playing standard methods. For something not-so-standard, please see the Bidding Quiz. Playing in Spades, it looks like 8 tricks all day long. Not quite enough!
Against 3NT South leads a low Diamond and Dummy’s Queen wins the trick. The key to the hand is how Declarer plays the Club suit and there are no strong indications either way as to where that missing Queen is located. If one defender has Qxxx of Clubs, two finesses will be required, of course, and it’s easy enough to finesse twice through North, simply cash the A♣, run the Jack, then the Nine. However, if we want to finesse twice through South we need no fewer than three entries back to our hand … two to take the finesses, and a third to get back to our hand to cash that 4th Club. If we use all three of our entries back to our hand then we’ll set up their Diamonds before we have a chance to set up a Heart.
So, the theoretically correct way to play the hand brings in just 10 tricks, when the Club is misguessed. If Declarer, for whatever reason, is persuaded that he will finesse against South he can make 12 tricks: Win the Q♦ Cross to the K♠ Finesse the J♣ Cash the A♣ (giving up on picking up Qxxx) Cash the three Spade winners (pitching a Diamond and a Heart from hand) Cross to the A♥ Cash the last Club Lead a Heart towards the Queen This line brings in 12 tricks when a second Heart trick materializes. It’s not a good line of play, but it is a most successful line.
2NT looks like a reasonable enough spot, at least if you are looking at just the N-S hands. But things are not kind to Declarer and down two is in her future. West leads a Heart, a Club must be lost, and soon the defense is in proud possession of 7 tricks and 200 points.
There are numerous reasons to go to the Bidding Quiz on this one, but the end result is likely to be 4♥ played by South. That will be 10 easy tricks, losing a trick in each side-suit.
South’s original plan was to bid a Forcing No Trump, and then 3♥, showing a 3-card limit raise, but West’s 2♠ bid caused her to upgrade her hand so she booted out the game.
It seems normal enough for East to lead a Spade against 4♥, after which Declarer can score 12 tricks by taking two Club ruffs on the board. It takes a trump lead to prevent one of those ruffs and hold Declarer to 11 tricks.
We admit that we like East’s extreme preempt … lots of offense, zero defense, and one level added for the favorable vulnerability. North bids 4♠ with some trepidation, no doubt, it’s a contract that could be cold, or could be an utter disaster. Here, it turns out to be the winner, and the final decision of the auction is passed around to West. Should he push on to 5♥? We really don’t know, it seems like a close decision to us. 4♠ could be going down, 5♥ could make on a really good day but it’s probably going down. Happy guessing on this one!
It turns out that 4♠ will always make. And how do E-W do in Hearts? It’s 10 tricks if they guess the Diamonds correctly, 9 tricks otherwise … either way, 5♥ turns out to be a great save.
South’s 2♣ was Drury, a recurring theme lately, showing Spade support and asking the question “Is your third-seat opening sound?” North’s opening is indeed sound and she bids game.
Looking at all four hands, one can see that 12 tricks are always there. Trumps are 2-2, so it’s easy enough to draw trumps and then ruff the Heart losers. And the Q♦ is onside, so a Diamond finesse will provide a pitch for the Club loser. OK, that’s “Double Dummy”, but that is not how the game is played, and much will depend on East’s opening lead.
Yes, good point, what should East lead? None of the suits looks appetizing, Dr Goodlead suggested a Heart as the least of evils. He reckoned that a Club lead was altogether too dangerous, and yet it turns out that a Club is the one lead that might hold Declarer to 11 tricks. Declarer wins the Club lead, and can still make 12 tricks by playing on Diamonds immediately and taking the finesse … but this risks making just 10 tricks if the finesse fails and Declarer may settle for a sure 11 instead.
One small point in the play. If East does choose a Heart opening lead, Declarer should play on Diamonds immediately, before tackling trumps. That way, if the Diamond finesse loses, he is merely trading a Club loser for a Diamond loser and will still score 11 tricks. But, if Declarer plays on trumps at Trick Two and then gets a Club shift, taking the Diamond finesse becomes a 10 or 12 play. We prefer 11 or 12 ourselves.
West made a Support Double, then N-S outbid the opponents at the 3-level. It turns out that Declarer is cold for 11 tricks but perhaps West might be gulled into allowing 12 tricks. For example, East leads a 5th best Spade won by Declarer’s Ace, then a trump to West’s Ace. West will know that there is no cashing Spade and will shift to a Club, and on this defense Declarer can still make 12 tricks by finessing the Hearts and getting a Club pitch. But it won’t be a free shot, because if the finesse loses then the cold 11 tricks become just 10.
OK, Take Two. This time, the defense is playing 4th best leads, so this time East leads the Spade Seven, leaving West in the dark about the precise length of East’s Spade length. Sure, a 5-card suit seems more likely than four, but let’s suppose that, when in with the A♦, West optimistically tries to cash a Spade. Curtains! Now, the Heart finesse really is a free play … if it loses it will be 11 tricks, if it wins it will be 12 … and if the finesse is not even taken it will be just 11.
Against 3NT, North leads a low Diamond to South’s Ace, then a low Diamond comes back. From the bidding and the play at Trick One, it looks as if the Diamonds are 4-3, with the remaining honors split. So, Declarer jumps up with the King, blocking the suit. He now runs the Q♣ around to South’s Queen, and South leads a Diamond to North’s Queen. North does best to shift to a Spade, but Declarer jumps up with the Ace (surely the King is with South), crosses on a Heart and makes 10 tricks when the Club finesse works.
Suppose that, at Trick Two, Declarer had played low on the Diamond return, allowing North’s Queen to win the trick. A mistake by Declarer because it allows North the opportunity to find the Spade shift and hold Declarer to 9 tricks. True, she may not find that shift, but why give her the chance?
South has something of a problem after East’s 3♥. Too good to pass, but no perfect call. We like the actual choice of 3♠, even if North has only 5 Spades it looks like the potential 5-2 fit might well be the place to play.
Against 4♠, East has a natural Q♣ lead and when Dummy goes down it looks like 10 easy tricks for Declarer. Not quite so easy as it happens, the 5-0 trump break provides a bump in the road. But only a small bump, Declarer wins the A♣, crosses to the A♠ getting the bad news, finesses the T♠, cashes the AK♦, then a Club to the King and a Club ruff. At this point, Declarer has 7 tricks, and is left in her hand with 3 red suit losers and KQ9 of trumps. She exits with a red card and in the fullness of time will score all her trumps for a total of 10 tricks.
North has a pretty good hand opposite a 2♣ opening. She starts with a 2♦ “waiting bid”, then rebids 2NT because 3♣ would be a “second negative”, then cue-bids her A♠ and K♣. Now, South would dearly love to play 6NT from her side, protecting the AQ♦, but alas her Partner has already grabbed the No Trump. So, she goes for the lesser-scoring 6♥, at least that one will be played from the right side.
Played from the South side, there are 11 top tricks (in Hearts or No Trump) when the Hearts break, and the total goes to 13 when the Clubs oblige.
Let’s say that, in the above auction, South goes for the gusto and tries the wrong-sided 6NT. The auction screams out for a Diamond lead, so East starts with the 9♦, presenting Declarer with a matchpoint decision. The best play for 12 tricks is to take the losing Diamond finesse and then hope that either the Hearts or the Clubs come in, either of which would get her up to 12 tricks. Trying for 13 would be ambitious indeed, for that Declarer must hop up with the A♦ and then hope that both the Clubs and the Hearts to behave.
That 2♠ bid won’t be everybody’s cup of tea, that’s for sure. On the actual deal, 2♠ is likely to buy the contract, and East may well lead a Club, considering it to be the least undesirable option. This works rather well, allowing the defense to score the K♣, A♦, a Club ruff, and three natural trump tricks for down one.
If East leads a more aggressive 7♥ against 2♠ then Declarer can prevail by means of a Scissors Coup. She wins the opening Heart lead in her hand, and leads a Diamond at Trick Two severing the enemy communications and putting paid to the defensive chances of a Club ruff. There’s a more exotic and somewhat double dummy way of achieving the same end-result … Declarer wins the opening Heart lead in hand, plays a Spade to East’s Queen, jumps up with the Ace when the Club shift is made, and exits a Diamond, severing communications once again (but also looking foolish if the K♣ was onside all the time, better to lose the Diamond at trick two).
Against 3NT, South experiences the joys of leading into a 2NT opening bid. Safety should be her watchword, here are her choices, starting with the worst: - A Club? Dummy’s Jack wins and Declarer plays on Spades, running the Ten when North plays a low Spade. This results in 10 tricks for Declarer (3 Spades, a Heart, 4 Diamonds, and 2 Clubs). With most of the enemy power on the leader’s right, underleading that King got what it deserved. - A Spade? This is another shot in the dark, no reason to lead this when we have no help in the suit, it’s too likely that the lead will achieve nothing and merely give up a tempo. And so it is here, the Spade lead just does Declarer’s work for him, and North must find the difficult play of a low Heart shift at Trick Two to hold Declarer to 9 tricks. - A Heart? A more promising lead than a Spade, at least in this suit we have something to offer. This lead works out rather well … Dummy’s King is taken by the Ace, and now North must shift to a Club in order to beat the contract … South’s King wins that trick and South reverts to Hearts, setting up 5 tricks for the defense before Declarer can get his 9. - A Diamond? Yes, surely this is the most promising suit, attacking but safe. It turns out that it attacks Declarer’s strongest suit, but at least it gives up nothing. Best play for Declarer is to win this in his hand and lead a Heart to the King, but North beats the contract by taking her Ace and, as before, shifting to a Club.
Carding Note In the defense to 3NT, after a Heart or a Diamond opening lead, it was necessary for North (when in with the A♥) to shift to a Club, and it was further necessary for South to win his K♣ and shift back to Hearts. But, South might think that he is supposed to continue Clubs rather than to revert to Hearts. Can North help out her Partner? Yes, in the middle of the hand we tend to give attitude leads on defense. So here, where North does not want Clubs continued, she plays a high Club, we’d suggest the Nine as the lead most likely to steer Partner in the right direction.
There is not much to the play of 2♠, surely 8 tricks and +110 for N-S.
Of course, East might well compete to 3♥. In that case, the only way for the defense to prevail is via a Diamond ruff. Nowadays, most pairs play Ace from Ace-King on opening lead against suit contracts. An exception occurs with AK doubleton, where playing the cards in reverse order shows that doubleton. So, on lead against 3♥, South leads the K♦, then the A♦, and later gets her Diamond ruff.
North does not exactly have the ideal Spade holding for her 3NT bid, a second stop would have been nice, or at least a third Spade (which would give her hold-up options in the play). And it turns out that 3NT is doomed on a Spade lead … Declarer’s best chance is to win the A♠, cash the AQ♦, and then return a Spade, hoping either that the run of the Spades exerts pressure on West. But nothing good materializes and it’s down one.
West’s Double was Responsive, showing the unbid suits, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 2♠, South leads a Club and when the dust has cleared Declarer will have won 8 tricks. Sure, he can make 9 if he gets everything right, but the obvious play in Hearts is to finesse the Jack, hoping to get a pitch for one of those losing Diamonds.
Back to the bidding. If North belongs to the “don’t let the opponents play at the two-level” school of thought, she will compete to 3♣ and will likely regret that she had. Playing in that contract, mercifully undoubled, she will surely be persuaded by the auction to misguess Diamonds, and that will be down two and the dreaded -200.
More aggressive Wests might try 4♠ here, but that seems a bit much to us. On the fortunate lie of the cards, 4♠ is indeed the winning call. After the 3♠ bid, South might have considered reentering the auction with a Double, which will no doubt result in a 4♥ contract, undoubled, down one.
Aggressive bidding by N-S! South considered her hand too good to preempt, correctly so in our opinion. As for North she upgraded her hand on the basis of double Heart stop and the third Diamond.
East leads a Heart, Declarer wins that and tries the Diamond finesse. When that wins she tries a Spade towards her hand and that is 10 tricks when the Ace is with West.
Against 1NT West leads the Q♠ which is overtaken by East’s Ace. A Spade comes back, won by Declarer. Now a Heart is lost to West, the Spades are cashed, South pitching two Hearts and a Diamond. Now, if West can refrain from shifting to a Club, Declarer will be down one. West should get this one right. His Partner’s first pitch will be a low Diamond, then when Declarer starts pitching Hearts, East will throw the T♥, denying the Jack and making the Heart shift completely safe for West. This helpful defense from East takes away the guesswork for his Partner.
For more on North’s options here please see the Bidding Quiz, for the time being let’s just say that a Texas Transfer followed by 4NT is used by many pairs as Roman Key Card, whereas 1NT 2♥, 2♠ 4NT is invitational to slam, showing 5 Spades.
On lead against 6♠, East has an obvious J♣ lead, the best start for the defense. This gives rise to an interesting Play Problem with which to end the set.
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