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Hand Analyses 6th June, 2007
An iffy N-S game to start with. North may be minimum in the HCP department but she does have a couple of Aces and an extra trump, so we’d consider her good value for her 4♥ bid. Dummy turns out to be a disappointment, the QJ♦ are quite useless. But the poor game rolls home when the A♣ and the K♠ are both where Declarer needs them to be.
The vulnerability was enough to keep South out of the auction, and East was able to buy it for 2♠ after a Jacoby Transfer auction.
As South, against 2♠, what would be your opening lead? - A Spade? No, leading a singleton trump is notoriously dangerous, all too often it picks up Partner’s Qxx or Jxxx. - A Club? Definitely not! Underleading a King into a strong Declarer is risky enough, but when it’s from a long suit it is doubly so. At least when we underlead the Kxx (and find that Partner has no help in the suit) we still have a chance to score our King later in the play. When leading from KJxxxxx there is no such chance. - A Heart? Better than a Spade or a Club, but will that achieve anything? If we are to build any tricks in this suit Partner will need a very good holding. He didn’t Double 2♥ for the lead, perhaps he doesn’t have that very good holding. - A Diamond? That was Dr Goodlead’s choice: “Not without risk, of course”, said he, “but surely more promising than a Heart”.
As it happens, any lead but a Club is good enough to hold Declarer to 8 tricks.
East has a nice Heart suit but does not quite have the values for a 2♥ bid over the 2♣ interference. Instead he has to be satisfied with a Negative Double and is put on the spot when 4♣ gets back to him. Well, maybe not such an awkward spot, it seems clear to bid 4♦, non-forcing. Sure, he doesn’t quite have the values to commit to 10 tricks, but he’s not far off and would hate to let the auction die without showing his fine support for Partner.
4♦ turns out to be a most friendly contract, with just one trump loser and both missing Heart honors in the slot. Making 11 tricks, no less.
South did well not to rebid her Hearts, that would not have been a success. She reasoned that her Hearts were poor and that most of her values were in the unbid suits, so perhaps it was better to bail out of this auction before things got out of hand. Good decision!
2NT has reasonable chances and should make 8 or 9 tricks, though it’s hard to predict how the play might go, there are so many variations.
East might have overcalled 2♣, but was persuaded by the favorable vulnerability that perhaps a preempt was called for. How right he was! North reopened with a Double and poor South had nowhere to go. As the cards lie, South would have done best to bid 3♠ which goes down a trick, but in the featured auction she decided to take her chances on defense.
Against 3♣ doubled, South has an obvious Q♠ opening lead, hoping that a forcing defense will cause Declarer to lose trump control. Fortunately for Declarer, Dummy goes down with that lovely A♠, allowing him to win the first trick, draw 4 rounds of trumps, and then lose a Heart. That’s +470 for E-W.
Standard methods don’t handle monstrous balanced hands particularly well, as exemplified by the above inelegant auction. For example, imagine West with the same miserable hand but with a 4th Spade … now 4♠ is very much the place to be but the clumsy auction will have made that impossible. There is a space-saving device called Kokish which can be used in this situation, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
However, with or without Kokish, East is destined to labor unsuccessfully in 3NT. Declarer has 6 top tricks and, with Spades 3-3, is able to build a 7th trick in that suit. The good news for Declarer is that South has a blind opening lead, and three of her four choices will give up the 8th trick. It turns out that a Diamond is the only lead not to blow a trick, but there’s no obvious reason for South to find this.
A Spade opening lead could be quite disastrous! Declarer wins the Q♠, cashes A♠, and exits a Spade. Now this hopeless contract will actually make if South does not shift to a Diamond.
East’s second Double showed some extra values and presumably only 3 Hearts.
Against 3♥, North does not have an appealing lead and may start out with a low Diamond. This is not a success, as we can see from the following line of play: Diamond to Dummy’s Ace Two more Diamonds are cashed, Declarer pitching a Spade A Heart to the Ten and North’s Ace North cashes a Spade Declarer ruffs the second round of Spades Two rounds of trumps Now, Declarer knocks out the A♣, ruffs the Spade return with his last trump, and at Trick 12 will be faced with a Club guess for the overtrick. If he finesses against the Ten and North wins the trick, the cold contract will be down one. But, by now, Declarer will have a perfect count on the hand. North started with 6 Spades, 2 Hearts, 3 Diamonds, 2 Clubs … the Club finesse is a sure thing! Making 10 tricks.
North does better if she starts out with the A♠, perhaps on the reasonable assumption that her non-supporting Partner is likely to be short in the suit. Here’s one way that Declarer can botch the proceedings: A♠ and Q♠ are cashed Declarer ruffs the 3rd round of Spades Heart to the King Heart to the Ten and North’s Ace Another Spade is ruffed The last trump is drawn (Declarer is now out) Three top Diamonds are cashed North takes the last three tricks with the A♣ and two Spades A tragic down two and the dreaded -200. Yes, Declarer went badly wrong, and should have pitched a Club on the 4th round of Spades. But that’s still down one, because South will have pitched 3 Clubs by now, and will be able to get a Club ruff for the setting trick.
North’s flighty preempt gets punished severely here! Here’s one possible line of play: Q♠ overtaken by West’s Ace Spade to North’s King A low Club to West’s Ace Spade ruff A♦ ruffed by Declarer K♣ is cashed Club won by East’s Ten Q♣ is cashed East must now lead a Diamond, allowing Declarer to escape with just one Heart loser. Down only two will seem like something of a triumph for N-S, but not really, it’s still -300 on a part-score hand.
Against 3NT, West leads the T♦, won by East’s Ace. At this point, a passive Club or Heart return will hold Declarer to 9 tricks, but that’s hard to find. More likely, East will persevere with Diamonds or shift to Spades, either of which hand a 10th trick to Declarer.
Some noteworthy bids in this auction: - East’s Double: With the opponents bidding and raising at the two-level this is a Takeout Double, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. - South’s Redouble: South’s original overcall was in the 8-17 range, or thereabouts, so the Redouble must surely show something in the top half of that range, at least. Anything else? Yes, we think so, please see the Bidding Quiz. - North’s 3♥: North has a pretty good 2♠ bid, a maximum as a matter of fact. So, to bid only 3♠ would not be enough, we’d say that this hand is worth a game try of 3♥. - South’s 3♠: South has already advertised a good overcall, but it’s not that good, not worthy of accepting the game try.
South can actually make 10 tricks in Spades with a combination of good luck and correct technique. Let’s say that the defense starts with two rounds of Clubs and then shifts to Hearts. - Where should Declarer win the Heart shift? Yes, of course, she should win it in her hand, keeping the A♥ as a later entry to the board. - How should Declarer play the Spades? If anyone is short in Spades it will be East, she is the one that doubled 2♠. So Declarer starts out with the K♠ from her hand, and has no trouble picking up West’s Q763 holding. - Where’s the 10th trick? That’s in Diamonds if the suit breaks 3-3. So Declarer draws trumps, plays 3 rounds of Diamonds, and uses the carefully preserved A♥ as the entry to the 13th Diamond.
Opposite a 15-17 1NT, East is not quite good enough to make an invitational bid, and so he takes his chances in 1NT. North, on lead against 1NT, makes the most natural lead imaginable, namely the Spade Two. South plays the Queen won by Declarer’s King, but the suit is now blocked. Declarer leads a Diamond to Dummy’s King and South’s Ace, after which the defense can take only three Spades. That’s 4 tricks for the defense and 8 tricks for Declarer. Who gets the other trick? That’s for Declarer to decide … he can take the Diamond finesse scoring 9 tricks if it works, just 7 if it does not.
Not many pairs play 3rd and 5th leads against No Trump contracts but that would certainly have been the winner here, as an opening lead of North’s Eight would conveniently avoid the Spade blockage.
Back to the auction. Did any Souths chirp in with a Spade bid? It’s not exactly our cup of tea on that shapeless hand but some players cannot resist this type of bid when not vulnerable. We wish we could report that 2♠ gets what it deserves and goes for 1100 but alas this is not the case. Here’s how the auction might go after a kamikaze 2♠ overcall by South: South West North East Pass 1NT Pass Pass 2♠ Pass Pass 2NT Pass 3♣ Pass Pass Pass West might have made a penalty-oriented Double of 2♠, he does have unusually good defense against Spades, but he no doubt would have preferred a 4th Spade for that call. How about East’s 2NT bid? Surely not to play. East does not want to defend 2♠, he want to compete to the three-level, he probably has the minors (but could be three-suited also).
3♣ makes 10 tricks for +130, but that requires North to refrain from bidding 3♠. If she does bid 3♠, it will be doubled for -300 and South will have got her just rewards for bidding 2♠!
West has the wrong hand type for a balancing action … too many Hearts, only two Spades, no extra values, and no convenient bid. Against 2♥, the play might go as follows: East leads the J♦, which holds Declarer ruffs the Diamond continuation A Heart is lost to East’s King J♣ won by Dummy’s Ace (surely the finesse is losing) J♥ is cashed Spade to the Queen The last trump is drawn Now, Declarer leads a Spade and finesses the Ten. West makes Declarer’s life more difficult if he ducks this trick, but then he is forced to win the next round of Spades and play the A♦, ruffed by Declarer. Now, a Club to the board and it matters not whether Dummy’s King is played, West will take the King and be forced to lead a Diamond for Declarer’s 9th trick.
We are not crazy about West’s 2♦, but then again we are not crazy about the alternatives either, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
After the featured auction, against 3NT, South will probably lead a Heart to North’s Ace, East unblocking the King. Now Declarer has the entries back to Dummy to pick up the Clubs and take 11 tricks.
On a different auction (one where West does not bid Diamonds), South is likely to find a Diamond opening lead. Dummy’s Ace wins the trick, then Declarer plays on Clubs, and North continues with Diamonds when she gets in with the A♣. At this point, Declarer has 9 tricks and if he wants a chance for a 10th he must duck a Diamond, win the next Diamond, and rattle off his Clubs, coming down to this end position: North ♠ QJT ♥ A ♦ 6 ♣ Dummy Declarer ♠ K7 ♠ A96 ♥ QJ ♥ K ♦ 9 ♦ ♣ ♣ 3 South ♠ 853 ♥ ♦ Q8 ♣ When Declarer plays his last Club, Dummy pitches a Diamond, and North is squeezed in three suits: - If she pitches a Diamond, she has lost touch with Partner, and Declarer can knock out the A♥ for his 10th trick. - If she pitches the A♥, that’s a 10th and an 11th trick for Declarer - If she pitches a Spade then the Spade Nine becomes the 10th trick
Playing in 3NT, because of the 5-1 Club break, Declarer has 9 top tricks with no real prospects for more. And to realize just those 9 tricks, there may be some untangling work required. It’s simple enough if West leads a Heart, but suppose that West inconveniently leads the J♠. Now Declarer must win the A♠, cash AQ♥, cross to the A♣, cash Q♣ and K♥, and cross to the A♦ for the rest of the winners. Not too difficult if Declarer keeps her wits about her, but it’s easy to imagine a few Souths winning the Spade lead, cheerfully cashing the AQ♣, and then saying “Oops!” as they realize that they have just stranded their third Heart winner.
West was no doubt feeling emboldened by the vulnerability when he made that Takeout Double. South’s Double of 2♥ was a Support Double, showing 3 of Partner’s Spades.
East leads a Heart to West’s Ace, and then a second Heart is ruffed on the board. That’s good defense, now it’s difficult for Declarer to draw trumps and then get rid of his Heart losers on the Diamonds, because if either the Spade finesse or the Diamond finesse were to lose, the defense would have two Hearts to cash for down one. As we have before, it’s often a good idea to set up the side-suit before drawing trumps, and so it is here. Declarer doesn’t have the entries to take a Diamond finesse (she needs that K♣ for later), and, anyway, the finesse is likely (but not certain) to lose. So, we’d suggest that the A♦ is cashed at Trick Three, the plan being to lose the second round of Diamonds, ruff the Heart continuation, cash K♠, cross to the K♣, and play A♠. Now, if Spades are 3-2, Declarer makes her contract by crossing to the A♣ and cashing a high Diamond … the opponents (presumably West) can ruff this with her Queen, but the last Heart loser goes away and 10 tricks are made. This line works whenever trumps are 3-2 or if East has the singleton Queen, provided that West does not have 3 Diamonds (somewhat unlikely on the bidding).
Well, that would be our plan, but everything changes when the K♦ comes tumbling down under the Ace. Now what? It seems likely that South started with 4-4-1-4 distribution, and probably has the Q♠. In that case, if we cash the K♠ and play on Diamonds the defense will score no more that two trump tricks. But, when the K♠ is cashed, the Queen appears from East, so now it’s no fewer that 12 tricks when even 10 seemed problematical just a couple of tricks ago.
E-W were playing that 2♣ was game-forcing, and that the 2♥ rebid did not show extras.
On opening lead against 3NT, the lead of the K♠ (the unbid suit) will not be in the least bit appealing, South has too much strength herself to expect much help from Partner. So, she’ll probably lay down the A♥ and continue with the Queen. Now, Declarer cashes Clubs and South must come down to 4 cards in the end-game. Three Diamonds must be kept and the J♥, so South does best to throw away her two Spades (hopefully some Spade signaling from Partner will make this easier). But this only delays the inevitable, because now the cashing of the A♠ squeezes South in the red suits, and that’s 12 tricks to Declarer.
Can South escape that grisly fate? Actually, no, not once the A♥ has been led. It takes a Spade lead to hold Declarer to 11 tricks.
North’s 5♦ was a slam try, politely declined by South who had too much stuff in the enemy suit (opposite shortness) to like her hand.
Against 5♥, East will probably lead a Spade and Dummy’s Jack will force the Ace which Declarer ruffs. Now, with trumps 2-2, 13 tricks are made. Declarer simply draws trumps and ruffs out the Diamonds and the K♠ provides the 13th trick.
Double Dummy Note Can Declarer make 13 tricks even without that obliging Spade lead? Suppose that East leads his singleton Club. That breaks up the potential Club-Spade squeeze against West, and now it takes a most bizarre play in the Diamond suit to make 13 tricks. On the first round of Diamonds, North leads the Jack, covered by the Queen and Ace. Now, a Diamond back to the King, and Declarer has a ruffing finesse position against East. Yes, bizarre, indeed!
We struggled mightily looking for a sequence of plays which would result in anything other than 10 tricks in 3NT, and failed to find one. It looks like The Flattest Board of the Week.
Best defense against 3♦ is for North to lead the A♥ and then a low Heart which South ruffs. This defense deprives Declarer of the chance to set up a Heart trick for a Club pitch, so the problem becomes “What is Declarer going to do with all those Club losers?” It looks as if South is 5-1-1-6, and we don’t expect North to let us ruff all three of those Club losers. On the third round she’ll ruff with the Eight, and that will put her in a position to out-ruff Dummy on the 4th round. So, the route to 11 tricks is to go after just two ruffs on the board and to try the Spade finesse for the 11th trick, as follows: A♥ opening lead Heart ruff Club to Dummy’s Ace Spade finesse Club ruff Spade to the Ace Club, ruffed by North’s Eight and overruffed in Dummy K♠, pitching a Club Now, Declarer is down to 5 good trumps. Of course, on the 3rd round of Clubs, if North declines to ruff and instead pitches a Spade, then Declarer cannot score his third Spade but instead does score the third Club ruff. 11 tricks either way.
Once North rebids 1♥, South of course knows that the hand belongs in game, and the question becomes whether or not 6♥ can be made. So, she trots out the Fourth Suit Forcing bid of 2♠, then supports Hearts with that forcing 3♥ bid. With a decent hand, North would be expected to cue-bid at this point, but her hand is as miserable as can be, so she makes the discouraging bid of 4♥, after which South gives up.
There are two Aces and a trump to be lost, surely 10 tricks at every table.
South preferred a 1♠ overcall to a Michaels Cue-Bid, North’s 4♥ was a Splinter Raise, and West correctly chose to sacrifice with 5♣. For more on each of these actions, please see the Bidding Quiz. North’s Double of 5♣ was a warning to Partner not to try 5♠ and a bid which usually shows two Club losers. South was suitably warned and passed with all those high cards opposite Partner’s shortness.
If East plays in 5♣ doubled, it’ll be down two for -300, an excellent save against the N-S vulnerable game.
If N-S had pushed on to 5♠ it would all have come down to the Diamond guess. Will it be obvious for Declarer to guess right? West will lead a Club to East’s King, then the A♣ is ruffed. Now, Declarer will go on a fact-finding mission before the fateful Diamond decision, and the best way to do that is to cash K♠, then A♥, ruff a Heart high (just in case), cross back to the Q♠ and cash the K♥. At this point, Declarer will be quite well-informed about the enemy assets: - East started with Jx of Spades - East started with xx of Hearts - East started with AKJxx or AKJxxx of Clubs (surely West would have led the Queen from QJ) That leaves West with two Queens outside of Diamonds. Would he make a Negative Double on three Queens and nothing else? Or would he need that A♦ for his bidding? We think the latter though it’s far from a sure thing. Sure, West might make a Negative Double with x, QTxxx, Qxx, Qxxx (though it’s certainly scraping the bottom of the barrel). But would he also take the sacrifice in 5♣ with that hand? We are not sure that he would, so our guess is to go up with the K♦ if West plays low. But, of course, it’s easy to be a good guesser with all of the hands in view.
We have no problem opening 1NT with a 5-card major, though on this board we would wish that we hadn’t. The 1NT opener gets N-S to the inferior 2♥ (down one), whereas the 1♠ opening allows N-S to make their 2♠ contract.
It looks as if this board will be played in a Heart part-score at most tables, and the question is “Can West make 9 tricks?” Please see Play Problem # 159.
We are sure that you could get some votes for Pass or 1♠ with the North hand, and we don’t have a strong preference either way.
If North chooses to bid 1♠, South will end up in the miserable contract of 2NT. Declarer has 5 top tricks, and we’d expect that a 6th will materialize one way or another. So, let’s score that up as down two and -100 for N-S.
If North decides to pass, we’d expect the auction to go like this: West North East South Pass Pass Pass 1♦ Pass Pass Dbl 1NT 2♥ Pass Pass Pass This contract will probably make 8 tricks for 110 and a small triumph for the 1♠ bidders.
South’s 2♦ was Fourth Suit Forcing, after which North was no doubt a little uncomfortable about bidding 2NT with such a slender holding in the 4th suit. East will surely lead a Diamond, won by West’s Ace. A Diamond will come back and Declarer will have to guess which of these plays to make: - Play low, hoping that East led from Kxx and that the suit will block. - Hop up with the Queen, hoping that West has false-carded from AK. Ten tricks if you guessed right, 8 tricks otherwise.
Of course, N-S do better in their 5-2 Heart fit or their 4-3 Spade fit, both of which are cold for 11 tricks with no guessing required. Well done those pairs who played in 4 of a major, we’d love to know how you did it!
South’s 1NT rebid opposite a silent Partner shows 18-19 HCP’s.
Against 2♦, looking at the South hand, what would be your opening lead? The red suits don’t look particularly attractive, considering the auction, nor does the lead of a Club. So, we’d lead a Spade, more in hope than expectation, and this turns out to be the only lead to beat 2♦! This gives the defense the timing to set up their Spade trick and knock out Dummy’s only entry before the Club trick can be established.
On Boards 15 and 23, one of the defenders had a singleton King sitting over the Ace, and in both hands there was a logical reason why Declarer should decline the finesse, and, as luck would have it, drop the stiff King. Now, imagine South declaring a 3♣ contract, which might well happen if North is more adventurous than in the featured auction. Is this the 3rd dropping of an offside King? No, we can’t see any reason why that King should not score a trick and that will be down one for Declarer.
East’s Jacoby Transfer sequence offered a choice between 3NT and 4♠ and West chose 4♠ on the basis of a likely Club ruff in the short hand. 4♠ is the place to be, thanks to that Club weakness, and Declarer will wind up with 10 tricks. The defense will score the K♠ and the A♦ and can set up a trick in Hearts or a trick in Clubs, but they don’t have the timing to do both.
After an unexciting auction, West can make 8 tricks in Hearts, and 9 if the defense fails to cash its Spade tricks right away. Yes, East’s raise to 2♥ was a tad heavy, perhaps, but there is that square shape to be considered.
A rather uneventful deal, one might think. But a more adventurous North might land her side in the soup, for example via this auction: West North East South 1♥ Dbl 2♥ Dbl Pass 3♣ Dbl Pass Pass Pass North’s Double got what it deserved in our opinion (see the Bidding Quiz). South could hardly not make a Responsive Double of 2♥, getting her side into the unpleasant contract of 3♣. It turns out that this is down two, so East’s Double was overkill, +200 (down two undoubled) was enough for a good board.
We’d have more sympathy for North if she came in with a balancing Double, as in this auction: West North East South 1♥ Pass 2♥ Pass Pass Dbl Rdbl 2♠ Pass Pass Pass In the face of the balancing Double, South treads more carefully than before and bids 2♠ in the hope that this will not get doubled. It probably won’t and 2♠ down one will be a good result for N-S.
West’s 3♠ was preemptive and both North and South must have felt uneasy about passing. But, it turns out that selling out to 3♠ is the winning action, as N-S will be -200 or worse if they make another peep.
Against 3♠, North will lead the A♣ and after that wins it won’t be obvious how to proceed. But it won’t matter too much, Declarer comes to 9 tricks one way or the other.
Against 4♠, West leads the J♥, won by Dummy’s Ace. What next? There’s nothing to worry about in the Club suit, that finesse will either win or it will lose. But decisions must be made in Spades and Diamonds. How does Declarer play the trump suit for one losers? And how does she avoid losing a second Diamond?
First of all, the trump suit. It’s more or less equal odds for cashing the A♠ and leading toward the Queen, and finessing twice against East. Given the Heart length with East, we’d be predisposed to place West with the Spade length, which means that, playing the Spades in isolation, it looks better to lay down the A♠ first. That’s all very well, but we would hate for the opponents to clear Dummy’s Spades before we can ruff a Diamond, surely we must play on Diamonds early. So, here’s how we’d play the hand: Win the opening lead with the A♥ Play a Diamond to the King and West’s Ace Ruff the Heart continuation Cash A♠, getting the surprising news Cash a Diamond Ruff a Diamond high Lose a Spade to East’s Jack Now Declarer can ruff the Heart return, take the Club finesse, and claim 11 tricks. Two important plays were required if 11 tricks were to be made: - Declarer had to play on Diamonds right away to avoid the danger of two Diamond losers (she needed that ruff on the board) - Declarer had to ruff the Diamond high, otherwise East would over-ruff and return a trump, locking Declarer in Dummy with no chance of taking the Club finesse.
East showed 11-12 for that 2NT bid, and West liked his 13-count with a few fillers.
What would you lead from the South hand against 3NT? A Spade or a Heart? Dr Goodlead was unequivocal, “The J♠, what else?” This is not exactly the “4th best from longest and strongest” but it certainly looks like the most promising opening salvo, a nice combination of attack and safety. It’s also the most successful lead. Declarer wins this, knocks out the A♦, and eventually has to resort to the Heart finesse for his 9th trick.
How does a Heart opening lead work? Declarer will win the Ace, and lead a Diamond to Dummy’s Queen, noting the fall of the Ten from North. Now, Declarer leads a low Club from the board and if North does not alertly jump up with the King and shift to a Spade, Declarer will have the timing for a 10th trick.
Against 3NT, North leads a Diamond which Dummy’s Queen wins. Declarer has various ways to play the Club suit. For example, cash the A♣ and lead towards the Queen (82% for one loser), or run the Queen from Dummy, panning a second finesse if necessary (76%). Those probabilities are pretty close, but Declarer has two reasons to go against the odds and finesse twice against South: - North has the Diamond length and is more likely to be short in Clubs - If a Club must be lost, it would be better to lose it to North, who cannot profitably continue the Diamond attack. So, following this impeccable logic, Declarer finesses the Club, losing to North. Now, a Heart shift to South’s Ace, and a Diamond through, and Declarer is ruined. North will win this trick and continue Diamonds, at which point Declarer cannot develop the Clubs without letting North in to cash her Diamonds. So, the best he can do is play on the majors, scoring 3 Spades, 2 Hearts, 2 Diamonds, and just one Club. Unlucky!
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