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Hand Analyses 30th May, 2007
West might reasonably have bid 1♥, 2♥ or 3♥ over 1♣. Considering the vulnerability we rather like 3♥ and that is certainly the bid which causes N-S most difficulty. South will reopen with a Double and the spotlight shifts to North. She really does not have anywhere to go at this point, particularly as the 4-3 Spade fit does not rate to play well … if the defense leads Hearts the long hand will be ruffing and trump control will be lost. So, North might as well pass the Double and hope she can beat 3♥.
N-S can make 3♣ despite the trump break, so West’s aggressive 3♥ preempt will pay dividends if he can get out for down one. Double dummy, down one is possible, but in real life it will be down two, and one in the eye for the aggressive preemptors.
A most instructive auction! West had no good action over 2♠ so he passed even though he knew that his side had the balance of the points. East’s Double showed a decent hand with a doubleton Spade, after which E-W used the Scrambling 2NT to find their 4-4 Diamond fit. For more on the E-W sequence please see the Bidding Quiz.
There is not much to the play on this one. 8 easy tricks in N-S play in Spades, 10 tricks if E-W play in Diamonds.
South reasonably pretended to have a 5th Heart, it hardly seemed right to hide such a magnificent suit in favor of a Q92 holding. As for North, she preempted with 3♥, and might even have considered going all the way to 4♥ considering the vulnerability and her shortness in the enemy suit. Finally, East bid the game, a slight stretch, but one necessitated by the preempting (see Bidding Quiz).
Against 4♠, the defense leads Hearts and Declarer ruffs the third round. Then, over to Dummy with the A♣, and the J♠ is run around. Next comes the Spade Ten, covered by the Queen, and Declarer’s Ace. North shows out and Declarer is in danger of losing trump control. His best play now is to take the Club finesse while there is still a trump in Dummy to handle the Heart force. When the Club finesse wins (and South plays the Ten), Declarer is able to pick up both black suits for 11 tricks.
The Coup That Might Have Been Suppose that the Club finesse had lost. That would be the third defensive trick, and it might seem that another round of Hearts will establish the setting trick in trumps … either Declarer will ruff in his hand, fatally shortening his trump holding … or, he’ll ruff in Dummy, and be unable to finesse South out of her 9x of trumps. Not necessarily so! If South started as 4-4-2-3 (with the Q♣), she’ll be trump couped! She wins the Q♣, returns a Heart which is ruffed in Dummy, the minor suit winners are cashed ending in Dummy, and, at Trick 12, Dummy plays a minor suit card, which South must ruff with her 97 in front of Declarer’s K8.
South is too good for a mere 2♠ overcall, so she doubles first. North’s 2NT was natural, and South had plenty to go on to game.
Against 3NT, East leads the Q♦, giving North the opportunity to show off her impeccable dummy play technique. She is planning to take finesses in both major suits and realizes that there is an excellent reason to play on Hearts first. If this loses and a Diamond comes back, Declarer can take the Spade finesse safe in the knowledge that, if it loses, West will have no Diamonds left. As it happens, both finesses work and Declarer’s good play is unnecessary, there will be 10 tricks whatever happens.
System Note After a Weak Two doubled, some pairs play Lebensohl. This takes away 2NT as a natural bid, and the Lebensohl auction would proceed thusly: West North East South Pass Pass 2♦ Dbl Pass 3♣ Pass 3NT Pass Pass Pass Playing Lebensohl, North’s 3♣ was constructive but not forcing. We’d say that North is about minimum for the bid, with a lesser hand North would go via the 2NT relay.
7♠ is ice-cold but it’s a difficult grand to reach. Here’s how the featured N-S did it: - 2NT: Jacoby, showing a Spade fit and game-going values. This may well be the key bid in the entire auction, South having decided that her hand was too good for a direct Splinter bid of 4♥. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz. - 3♦: Shortness in Diamonds - 4♥: Shortness in Hearts. An improvised bid, perhaps, but if N-S are on the same wavelength then this should be a hand which was too good to splinter originally. - 4NT: Roman Key Card Blackwood. Yes, somewhat unusual with a void but North was really interested in the Q♠ and the K♣. - 5♣: 1 or 4 - 5♦: Queen Ask - 6♣: Shows the Q♠ and the K♣.
Not a bad auction, but even so North could not have been 100% certain that 7♠ would make, she was no doubt concerned about the possibility of a 3rd round Club loser. Then again, South said he was too good for a direct splinter, so it was a reasonable gamble, we think.
If, opposite a 1NT opening, your partnership has a method of showing an invitational hand with 5-5 in the minors then that would be a reasonable gambit for West here. The featured E-W had no such method, so West decided that the practical solution was to try for 3♣ or 3♦. His side was playing Minor Suit Transfers, whereby 2♠ transferred to Clubs and 2NT transferred to Diamonds. This allowed him to use a little trick to get to 3 of the right minor. He bid 2NT, transferring to Diamonds, and North bid 3♣ which by their methods said “I don’t like Diamonds” (some pairs play it the other way). So West passed on the assumption that Opener’s Clubs would be better than the Diamonds.
Clubs is the right spot, of course, making 11 tricks when the Heart finesse works.
Perhaps West was tempted to balance with 2♠, but that would have been quite risky at that vulnerability. Against 2♥, considering the auction, it seems likely that the K♠ will be led. How do you fancy Declarer’s chances? They are not good. There are 3 tricks in the side suits (assuming that the A♣ is onside) and no real prospect for more. That means that 5 trump tricks are needed, which will necessitate two ruffs in one hand or the other. Of course, the defense can stop that by leading trumps early, but it’s easy to see the play going like this: K♠, ducked by Declarer (East encouraging with the Nine) Low Spade, to East’s Jack and Declarer’s Ace K♦ taken by West’s Ace Q♠ is cashed Heart shift to the Ace Heart continuation won in the Dummy A Club won by East’s King Now, East cannot lead the vital third round of trumps, and Declarer scores the rest of her trumps separately, for 8 tricks. It’s easy to see where the defense went wrong … when West won his A♦, he had to shift to trumps immediately, without first cashing his Spade winner. Then, when East gets in with the A♣, he can get to Partner’s hand with the third round of Spades for the killing trump continuation. Easy to see with all four hands in view, less obvious with only two hands visible. But not impossible. West knows that the opponents are in a 4-4 fit, and that neither of the minor suits can be established, so where are Declarer’s tricks coming from if not the trump suit? Perhaps West is worried that Declarer’s Spade loser will be pitched on a Diamond, maybe Declarer has this hand: ♠ AT8 ♥ AJ32 ♦ K ♣ JT873 Sure, if West shifts to a trump after winning the A♦, Declarer’s Spade loser goes on the Q♦. But it doesn’t really help Declarer, she’s struggling to find tricks more than she is trying to avoid losers.
Walsh Note Players of the Walsh persuasion will not bother to bid North’s Diamonds, they’ll respond 1♥ and end up in the same contract but from the North side. The oft-quoted benefit of a Walsh auction is that it gives away less information, and so it is here. East will presumably lead the J♦, and now the defense has no chance whatsoever of leading trumps three times. Making 8 tricks without requiring a defensive slip-up.
South might have made a game-try at IMP’s but maybe not such a good idea at matchpoints. And, even if South does try for game, North will likely decline. True, she has that lovely Spade singleton but the rest of her hand is as bad as can be … minimum point count, only 3 trumps, and three small at that.
Playing in Hearts, West leads a Spade, won by East’s Ace. He’ll shift to a low trump at the speed of light, and Declarer will hop up with the Ace in order to negotiate two Spade ruffs on the board. Losing a Spade, two Hearts, and a Diamond, for +140.
N-S were playing Inverted Minors, so 3♦ showed 5-card Diamond support, a weak hand, and no 4-card major. The 3♦ preempt effectively kept E-W out of the auction, but that may be a mixed blessing. Playing in Diamonds, Declarer will have to play well to avoid going down three: Defense cashes two Clubs Heart shift, ducked by Declarer Heart continuation, won by Declarer’s Ace Declarer exits a Heart Now the best that the defense can do is lead anything but a trump, and eventually they will score two trumps to go with the 4 tricks already in the bag. That will be down two. But down only one if the defense makes the mistake of breaking open the Diamonds.
Back to the bidding. Anyone for a vulnerable 2♣ overcall with the East hand? Our own view is that this bid is a bit too much with such marginal values and that rotten suit. Suppose that East dredges up 2♣ anyway. South will preempt as before to 3♦ and West will have a difficult problem. He can hardly bid 3NT with such a flimsy holding between two Diamond bidders, and might guess to bid 4♣. That’s not a success, down one. Yes, 3NT by West works well, making 9 tricks.
West’s “2/1 in Competition” was not game-forcing, but it was forcing for one round and showed decent values, let’s say 10+ HCP’s with a 5-card suit. So, West was pretty much minimum for that 2♥. As for East, he might well have raised to just 3♥ (non-forcing), but he liked his 4th trump, he was a little better than minimum, and so he took the push to game.
4♥ is a so-so contract, with the best (but not the only) chance being to find Diamonds 3-3. North cashes the A♣ and Q♣ and shifts to a Spade won in the Dummy. Correct play in Hearts is to play the A♥ from hand first, allowing J754 in either hand to be picked up. It turns out that trumps are, indeed, 4-0, and, when they have been extracted, the 3-3 Diamond split assures 10 tricks.
A game that requires a 3-3 break is somewhat against the odds, but there was an extra chance. Imagine South with 2-3-2-6 distribution, including Kx or Qx of Spades. The defense can cash their Clubs as before, the Diamonds do not break, but South will eventually get end-played if Declarer times things carefully.
3NT is not a success and is destined to go down one. A Club opening lead from West might raise Declarer’s hopes momentarily, but the defense still gets its 5 tricks (3 Spades, 2 Hearts) before Declarer gets to 9.
We are not entirely convinced that East is worth a game-forcing 2♦ bid with that hand, so it’s not surprising that the final contract is somewhat dicey.
Against 4♠, North may lead the Q♦ (perhaps not a great idea considering the auction), low from Dummy, ruffed by South. This may seem like a good start for the defense but in fact that Diamond lead, and the ruff, have actually helped Declarer’s cause. South will shift to a Club, won in the Dummy. Then a Spade to the King, and another Spade to South’s Ace. Now it’s all over, Declarer will ruff the Club return, draw trumps, and take the marked Diamond finesse to get a pitch for the potential Heart loser. No need for the Heart guess on this defense.
North does better if her opening lead is a Club. Declarer does best to hold-up the first round of Clubs, but, even after that good play, he will be down if he runs the T♠ on the first-round of the suit. If he gets the Spades right, he might squeak home on this sequence of plays: Opening Club lead ducked Club continuation won on the board Spade to Declarer’s King Spade to South’s Ace Club ruffed by Declarer Trumps are drawn (Dummy pitching a Diamond) At this point, everybody is out of trumps, and one of these things will happen in the 6-card ending: - If North has come down to 3 Hearts and 3 Diamonds, Declarer will cash the K♦ and, if he has been watching the discards, will know that it is safe to cash the A♦ and throw North in to lead a Heart. - If North has come down to 2 Hearts and 4 Diamonds (excellent discarding, Ms North!), the end-play is no longer available and Declarer will probably misguess the Hearts for down one.
Against 3NT, West leads the Q♠. Declarer wins and loses a Club, after which a Diamond shift beats the contract two tricks.
System Note Pairs that use the Lebensohl will have a more protracted auction to the same doomed contract: West North East South Pass Pass 1NT 2♠ 2NT Pass 3♣ Pass 3NT Pass Pass Pass North’s 2NT was a relay to 3♣, the start of various weak auctions, but in this case it turns out to be “I have the values for game, no 4-card Heart suit, and I have a Spade stopper”. Follow the link to the Convention Library for more on this useful device.
Generally speaking, when Partner opens with a Weak Two and we have 4-card support, we go to the 4-level. Either it’s being bid to make, or else it’s likely to prove a good sacrifice. But this hand looks to us to be an exception. West does not have enough for game to make, he has a smattering of defense, and he has a square shape which gives his hand less offense than he would like (no ruffing values). So, we’d bid just 3♠ here, and that turns out to be the winning call. Both sides can make 9 tricks in their major suit fit, and bidding 4♠ just gets an avoidable minus score.
We spent some time analyzing South’s opening lead, searching for a good reason not to lead a Spade. Dr Goodlead was no help “A Spade, of course!” As can be seen, a Spade lead is quite disastrous! Here’s how the play might unfold: Spade lead won by East’s Ten The J♥ is cashed A Club is led to the Jack and North’s Ace A Spade returned to Declarer’s Ace Over to Dummy with the K♣ Four Hearts are cashed At this point, with 4 cards left, Declarer has 8 tricks in the bank. He leads a Club towards his hand, North plays low, and now he can play the Queen and assure 9 tricks (10 if the suit is 3-3) or he can finesse against the Nine, playing for 10 tricks, but risking just 8 if the finesse loses. The odds will strongly favor the finesse: - South will have shown 4 Hearts and 4 or 5 Spades, that’s 8 or 9 major cards compared with North’s 5 or 6 - This leaves more space in the South hand for that missing Nine - When South played the Club Ten on the second round of the suit, the Principle of Restricted Choice kicked in. If she had started with T97 of Clubs, she might equally well have played the Nine, a thought which further increases the probability of the finesse working. This is a tough one! Declarer is in a good (but normal) 3NT contract and got a favorable opening lead. It would be a shame to throw it all away with a greedy finesse, however probable it is that the finesse will succeed. Your choice.
Surely all roads will lead to 6NT on this one. Tricks galore, with an Ace missing.
West’s sequence showed 22-24, and North leads her 4th best Diamond against 3NT. South wins the King, returns a Diamond to North’s Ace, and the suit is cleared. Two points of interest in the play to those 3 Diamonds tricks: - Declarer will know for sure that North has the A♥. How so? Well, without an outside entry, North would have ducked the second round in order to maintain communications with Partner. - When North returns her third Diamond, she’ll lead her middle card (the Seven), a suit preference signal for the middle-ranking suit. Most of the time suit preference signals are high or low for the higher- or lower-ranking suit, but, once in a while, as here, there are three candidate suits.
After winning the third Diamond, Declarer can count 7 top tricks. Going after the Hearts would be immediately fatal, so the only chance is that an extra trick can be scored in each of the black suits. It would be wrong for Declarer to cash three top Spades next, hoping for the best in that suit. That is the road to down two as North now has a Spade to cash (as well as her Diamonds) when she gets in with the A♥. Better play is to cash just two top Spades and then the AK♣. Look what happens on the second round of Clubs. North shows out, putting paid to any hopes of a 9th trick, so Declarer plays for down one by leading a Heart next and preventing the second undertrick.
East has a difficult rebid problem over 2♣, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
South will lead a Spade against 3NT, and normal play will lead to down one or down two. It’s a nasty hand to play anyway, made impossible by the adverse Club situation. Well, not exactly “impossible”, here is a highly improbable double dummy route to 9 tricks: Spade won by Dummy’s Ace Finesse of the T♦ Heart to the King! Diamond to the King K♠ is cashed Heart to North’s Queen A♦ is cashed Diamond to Declarer’s Queen Q♠ is cashed T♣ run around to North’s Jack Diamond is cashed Now, at Trick Twelve, North is end-played in Clubs!
What an interesting auction! West comes in with one of those death-defying DONT bids, for more on which see below. North’s Double says “I have a surprising amount of defense against 2♣” (see Bidding Quiz). East’s Redouble was of the SOS variety, saying “Anywhere but Clubs, Partner!” South could not get Diamonds into the auction earlier because N-S were playing Transfers, so took her chance to bid 2♦. As for West, he’d done his job by getting the opponents out of 1NT so he went quietly.
Playing in Diamonds, the defense can hold Declarer to 5 tricks via a Club lead and a couple of ruffs but that is unlikely to happen. We predict a Spade lead from West and +130 for Declarer when she reels in 10 tricks and +130.
Let’s suppose that West does not indulge himself in that kamikaze 2♣ bid. How does 1NT do? East leads a Spade which Declarer wins. Next comes a successful Diamond finesse, which West would do well to duck. Declarer now tries a Club finesse, losing to East’s King, a Spade comes back and Declarer ducks. Now he is in control and he simple loses a trick in each suit, scoring up 9 tricks and +150.
Note For DONT Aficionados This hand is the latest in the series of “Do you or DONT you?” It’s an empirical study to test the effectiveness of those 4-4 DONT bids. Here are the rules of engagement: In Direct Seat: Use DONT when 4-4 with10+ HCP’s when not vulnerable Use DONT when 4-4 with 12+ HCP’s when vulnerable In Balancing Seat: Use DONT with any 4-4 hand The Opening Side: The 1NT Opener doubles with two likely trump tricks His Partner doubles with 8+ HCP’s and 2+ trumps or with 6+ HCP’s and 3 trumps According to those rules, West gets N-S out of their 1NT contract, manages to avoid disaster, and ends up defending 2♦ (-130) instead of 1NT (-150). A triumph for the Robots! The running score is now: DONT Robots 3 Solid Citizens 2
South will lead a Club, won by North’s King. North shifts to a trump, to cut down the Dummy ruffs. Declarer wins in his hand, ruffs a Club, exits with the K♦, and must eventually rely on the Heart finesse for 10 tricks.
Can South do better by leading a trump on the go? That stops the ruff in Dummy alright, but, with careful timing, Declarer can make up the shortfall by scoring a third Heart trick. The key play occurs at Trick Two, when Declarer must lead a Diamond towards Dummy. The King loses to North’s Ace, and a trump comes back, but now Declarer has establish a route back to his hand for the second Diamond ruff. It’s essential to lose that Diamond while Dummy still has a trump. If Declarer draws trumps first he’ll be unable to avoid 3 losing Clubs and a Diamond.
In this situation, it’s customary for South to go to the 5-2 major fit, rather than stay in the potentially 4-3 Club fit. It turns out that both contracts are poor indeed, and you can expect to see some -200’s and even -300’s on the score-sheet. This is a hand where N-S will often “steal” the contract with less than half of the HCP’s but when the dust has cleared they will wish that they hadn’t.
Would you open the North hand? It doesn’t pass the Rule of Twenty, but it’s hard to pass such a good suit and a hand with Ace-King, Ace. So, we would open it (and regret later that we had!).
South’s 2♥ was Michaels, showing Spades and a minor, typically 5-5. West’s 3♣ was clearly forcing, but to what? Not to game, we would say, though it should promise a rebid. That agreement allowed E-W to stop in 4♣ but even that turned out to be one too many.
Anyone for 3NT? In theory it is down three when an opening Heart lead knocks out West’s entry before the Clubs can be unblocked. But surely the opening lead will be a Spade and that will be 9 tricks in a hurry.
N-S were playing DONT, which is a fine way of getting into the auction when you have a two-suiter. But here, North has a three-suiter and she chose to treat it as a Spade-Diamond two-suiter. Any particular reason? Actually, yes, please see the Bidding Quiz.
North makes a whopping number of tricks in Spades, in fact no fewer than 10. The 2-2 Spade break and the on-side A♣ allows the Club losers to be held to one, and the only other losers are a trump and a Diamond.
Walsh-style players, holding a 4-card major, don’t waste their time bidding 1♦ opposite Partner’s 1♣ opening unless they have a good hand, they’ll go straight for the major. And, on this hand, even non-Walshites should skip those Diamonds in favor of the far more impressive Heart suit. If we respond 1♦ here, and LHO overcalls Spades and ends up playing in Spades, how sad we’ll be when Partner leads a Diamond instead of a Heart!
But, on the actual hand, it turns out that it is E-W who belong in Spades. It’s a tricky hand to play, please see Play Problem # 157.
After North’s 2♠, East can hardly take a call. His Hearts are too weak for 3♥, and his hand is the wrong shape for a Takeout Double. So, North’s 2♠ buys it, and it’s 8 tricks for Declarer with no real prospects for more.
West’s 3♠ put the proverbial cat among the pigeons, and eventually North made the practical bid of 6NT. Or, at least, it was what she hoped was the practical bid.
If East leads a Spade, Declarer will win the trick, unblock the K♥, cross to the board with a Diamond, and play the Hearts from the top. When the suit proves to be 4-1, it’s just 12 tricks for Declarer.
Pretty mundane stuff, eh? Yes, indeed, but now try 6NT when East makes the diabolical lead of a Diamond! Please see Play Problem # 158.
E-W got themselves into a Fourth Suit Forcing auction and ended up in the predictable but not very good contract of 3NT. We’d expect North to lead the K♦, won by Declarer’s Ace. Declarer will run the T♥, it’s one of those finesses which he would love to lose, that would give him a reasonable chance at 4 Hearts tricks. But it wins, alas (South would do well to duck this if she held the King). Now, Declarer has no choice but to try the Spade finesse, in search of an extra Spade trick and a much-needed entry to the Dummy. When that finesse loses, it’s curtains for Declarer. Down a couple of tricks.
This is a particularly messy deal, and it’s impossible to predict the outcome with any certainty. Down one is our best guess, let’s just leave it at that.
South’s 2♠ bid showed at least invitational values with Diamond support, and the failure to make a Negative Double implies less than 4 Hearts. North’s 2NT was minimum and non-forcing, and South had enough to bid game.
The N-S auction worked rather well, insomuch as they managed to get 3NT played from the right side. Nobody would blame East for leading the K♠, but that will be won Declarer’s Ace and a Spade will come right back, establishing Declarer’s 9th trick. East will win the Queen, and now does best to shift to a Club. Dummy’s Ace takes the second round of Clubs and the Diamonds are cashed. Eventually, Declarer will have this decision to make: - Should she take her 9 tricks and run? - Or should she take the Heart finesse, risking the contract in pursuit of a 10th trick? By the time that she gets to that point Declarer will be know that West started with longer Hearts and is favorite to hold the Queen, but even so we are not sure that we would want to risk our contract when (a) we got it played from the right side, and (b) we got a favorable opening lead. Perhaps the clincher against taking the Heart finesse is that East might well have a doubleton Heart in which case the doubleton Q♥ is another way of coming to ten tricks. Oh, well, making only 9 tricks!
A brief auction to 4♥ and West must lead the K♣ to hold Declarer to 11 tricks. If West leads a major then trumps are drawn, the Q♦ is lost, but the long Diamond allows the Club loser to vanish, and it’s 12 tricks. Even worse for the defense is a Diamond lead, leading to 13 tricks.
East’s 2♣ was an Inverted Raise, forcing for one round, showing at least invitational values and denying a 4-card major.
West will probably lead a Spade and that gives Declarer his 8th trick. Everything will depend on South here. Declarer will play on Hearts right away, the earlier the better, before the defense gets a chance to do much signaling. South must win the first round of Hearts and shift to the Q♦ (the Ten would work equally well), picking up Declarer’s King and collecting 5 tricks for the defense. Will it be obvious to South to do this? Maybe not, but we have to say that this hand is a good commercial for the Smith Echo. Whether Declarer plays a Heart from his hand at Trick Two, or whether he crosses to the board on a Club and leads a Heart, South will get the benefit of seeing one card from Partner before the critical play. Playing the Smith Echo: - if North plays a low card she’ll be saying “I don’t like my opening lead” - if North plays a high card she’ll be saying “I do like my opening lead”
On the actual hand, North does not like her opening lead one little bit and will play a low card at Trick Two. That should be enough to wake up South and persuade her to do the right thing. Even so, it takes an alert South to make that play, well done to those that found it!
West showed invitational values and Spade support, something of an overbid we would say … minimum values, no 4th Spade, and a doubleton in the enemy suit. But all’s well that ends well, the A♥ is onside and 9 tricks are made.
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