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Hand Analyses 16th May, 2007
South had the right distribution for an Unusual 2NT overcall, showing, in this case, the red suits (two lower unbid), but committing to the three-level with those broken suits and those defensive values does not seem like a good idea to us.
On opening lead against 3NT, South will probably lead a Diamond, on the grounds that East appears ready for a Heart lead, and Partner did not double that 2♥ cue-bid. North will play the K♦ and shift to a Heart, but now Declarer ducks, ensuring 10 tricks.
With South on lead, the only way to hold Declarer to 9 tricks is an opening Spade lead. If, by some strange chance, West is Declarer, an opening Heart lead is ducked, and now, if South finds the Diamond shift for another Heart lead through, the contract is down one.
It’s hard to get too excited about this deal, nobody has a fit, and nothing much of anything makes. On to the next board!
South’s invitation to game is rightly turned down by North. She’s on the cusp in terms of HCP’s, but has no fillers worth mentioning. Even 2NT may be too high, and that contract can be beaten if the defense avoids giving Declarer a 4th Heart trick, and if the defense does not set up Declarer’s long Club too early in the play.
North’s 3♠ was not intended to show extras, merely a very good suit which could stand up as the trump suit even opposite shortness. Of course, the term “very good suit” is subjective, for more on this please see the Bidding Quiz.
After West’s jump to 3♠, East’s 4♣ bid is interpreted as a cue-bid in support of Spades. Now, when West shows something in Diamonds, East tries Roman Key Card, but has to sign off when two Key Cards are missing.
Against 5♠, North will presumably lead a red suit. The winner is a Diamond, allowing the defense to take its trick before it is too late. But there is a lot to be said for a Heart lead, not least of which is the fact that East presumably has something in Hearts, and it might be an idea to knock out a Heart entry early in order to make it more difficult for Declarer to get Dummy’s Clubs going. Good thinking but, alas for N-S, it allows Declarer to make all 13 tricks. He wins the A♥, picks up the K♠, ruffs out the Clubs, and has pitches for both his Diamonds.
What would you open with that West hand? We wouldn’t argue with a 1♠ opening here, but our own preference is for 2♣, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. East has a terrific hand opposite a 2♣ opening and eventually will take the proceedings to the 6-level, one way or another. In the featured auction, the interpretation of the bidding goes as follows: 2♣ Artificial, game-forcing (well, almost!), unless balanced 22-23. 2♦ A waiting bid, made in the absence of something better to bid. 2♠ Natural (not a 3♠ bid, see Bidding Quiz for Board 4) 2NT Undefined by most partnerships, but better than the 3♣ Second Negative 3♠ Natural 4♣ It’s too late for East to start introducing his own suits, this is a cue-bid. 4♦ Another cue-bid.
Oh, yes, we almost forgot! What about that 5♠ bid? It seems to us that this should say “I have the values for slam but I cannot cue-bid Hearts”.
Against 6♠, the one suit North should not lead is Diamonds, surely Declarer has the Ace. There’s an argument for leading any of the other three suits. We’d lead a Club, attacking the suit cue-bid on our left (leading through strength in other words), and this turns out to be the lead that gives Declarer the most difficulty. Well, let’s rephrase that, it’s the lead that offers a chance for the unwary Declarer to go wrong. To check your own Unwariness Quotient please see Play Problem # 155.
Anyone for No Trump? E-W score the same 12 tricks in No Trump as they score in Spades and perhaps somebody should be bidding 6NT. Actually, we think that either player might reasonably have gone for the No Trump contract.
We don’t think much of that 2♠ bid by North, very risky with such a moderate suit and such blah distribution. Then again, who likes defending 1NT contracts? Will the 2♠ bid succeed? - 2♠ is destined to go down one trick, there’s no escape! That’s +50 for E-W. - That’s a bad board for E-W if 1NT makes. - We predict that 1NT normally will be made, even though it can be beaten if the defenders get things just right … the defense must establish its two Diamond tricks before Declarer gets his two Spade tricks.
So, a triumph for the 2♠ bid, scoring -50 when -90 was staring N-S in the face? Probably so, but Professor Oddbid had a different take on things: “Of course, with the West hand, I double 2♠. They are in a 6- or 7-card fit, we probably have no more than a 7-card fit ourselves (though 8 is certainly possible). Trumps are not breaking for E-W, we have at least half the HCP’s. Does anybody remember the Law of Total Tricks? No guarantees, of course, this contract will make once in a while.” Yes, speculative indeed, but very much the winner here, there’ll be a big difference in the matchpointing between +50 and +100 for N-S.
Over 2♣ some might make a Negative Double over 2♣, but we prefer 2♦, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. Anyway, North will surely end up in a Club partial, and all routes lead to 10 tricks.
Over 3♣ it would be a mistake for South to make a Negative Double, she has game values and needs to show that 5th Spade.
4♠ is an unhappy contract, done in by the massive duplication of values in Clubs and the 5-0 trump break.
On lead against 3NT, North has little to guide her choice of opening lead. There’s a tendency in this situation to lead a major, on the grounds that Responder did not use Stayman. So, North will likely lead a low Spade, won by Declarer, who will send one right back. North ducks this, and wins the third round of Spades, in order to get a helpful signal from Partner. If South sends a clear signal for Clubs the defense can cash their top Clubs pronto, getting their three tricks while the getting is good. If North decides to go passive and return another Spade, Declarer cashes all his Spade and Diamond winners and will have a choice in the end-game as to whether to finesse the Heart for 11 tricks, risking only 9 if the finesse loses and the defense is able to cash two Club tricks. Should Declarer takes that finesse? Here is the end-position: Declarer Dummy ♠ ♠ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
