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Hand Analyses 9th May, 2007
Assuming that N-S are playing a range of 5-10 for their Weak Twos, we’d say that the North hand is almost too good for such a bid. Yes, it’s only 10 HCP’s, but it also has excellent Diamond fillers and a singleton. Our own choice would be 1♦, but each to his own.
As for West, he decided to take a shot at 4♠ rather than offer Partner a choice of the majors, a most reasonable choice considering the great discrepancy in the suits, in terms of both length and strength.
Playing in Spades, Declarer will make 11 or 12 tricks, it all depends on how he plays the Heart suit. The choices are: - Either, cash the Ace first - Or, finesse twice against the KQ
Both methods lose when South has the KQx, and both work when the suit is 2-2 with the honors split. So, the key cases are when South has KQ doubleton (cashing the Ace works), and when North has KQx or KQxx (finessing twice is the winning play). Needless to say, the second line has more ways to win and would normally be the percentage play. True, the bidding indicates Diamond length with North reducing her chances of also having 3 or 4 Hearts, but that does not seem enough to go against the odds.
Surely North will lead a Heart on this auction which works well for the defense, knocking out Dummy’s only entry before the Clubs can be unblocked. Making 9 tricks.
After West’s raise to 2♥, some pairs have exotic methods for inviting to game (for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz), but our featured East went the traditional route and made a simple raise to 3♥, an invitation which was accepted, no doubt with alacrity.
The auction shown was not particularly uninformative, and there’s a lot to be said for that. What would you lead from the South hand against 4♥? Dr Goodlead thought briefly about starting with the A♠, saying “I have 4 Hearts, perhaps a forcing defense is the way to go” But he considered that lead too dangerous, so he eventually decided to go with a Club, which was not a great success, as it takes away the guess in the suit. Now, with careful play, Declarer can rack up no fewer than 11 tricks. Please see Play Problem # 152.
South might have been tempted to overcall 2♥, but Double is the better bid in our view, it keeps more irons in the fire. When 2♠ came back to her, South might have considered a second Double, and no doubt would have done that if her K♠ had been somewhere useful.
Against 2♠, South has a natural enough lead of the Q♥, won by North’s Ace. North returns the Heart Three, won by Declarer’s King. How should East play the trump suit? The play in the Heart suit was quite revealing. North has shown up with the A♥ and if she also has the K♠ that would give South a maximum of 12 HCP’s for her Double. That’s plenty for her bid and insufficient evidence to eschew the trump finesse. How about North’s return of the lowest missing Heart? That’s definitely a clue! North surely started with 2 or 4 in the suit, and we would say that the doubleton is more likely, presumably North has hopes of over-ruffing Dummy. Yes, we’d be inclined to play for 5-2 Hearts, in which case we cannot afford to lead a Diamond (to get to the Dummy for the Spade finesse), and see it go: A♦ (by South), Heart ruffed by North, Club to South’s Ace, and another Heart ruff. That’s 5 tricks for the defense, and there is still a guess left for the trump King. No, surely the right play is to lay down the A♠, which, as good luck would have it, drops the off-side King. Now, it’s 9 tricks and a splendid +140.
Back to the bidding. Perhaps North should have bid 3♣ over 2♠. The hand is shapeless and the vulnerability not ideal, but there is the reasonable prospect of a 9-card fit. Of course, the danger is that Partner might think that we actually have some values and might take another call. This auction is a good candidate for a Lebensohl-style or Good-Bad-style 2NT, a gadget which has come up with alarming frequency in recent Wednesday Games. Yes, the thought here is that perhaps 2NT here is best served as a relay to 3♣, a weak way of competing to the 3-level. 3♣ directly would therefore show some values (but non-forcing).
So much for obscure bidding theory, how does the hand play in 3♣? Let’s say that North is Declarer and that East leads the Q♦. Declarer should duck the first round and win the second Diamond. If the Heart finesse is losing, then Declarer’s only chance of not losing a 5th trick is not to lose a second Diamond, and that will only be possible if East started with two in the suit, and if West can be kept off play. At Trick Three, the K♠ is led, won by East’s Ace. East has no good exit so will perhaps exit a low Club, after which the winning play for Declarer is to win the A♣ and exit a Club. Now East is stuck for an exit once more and eventually Declarer’s Diamond loser will go away. Of course, East can spectacularly try to force an entry to Partner’s hand by playing the K♣ (after winning the A♠), but Declarer has a counter to that, she simply ducks, wins the second Club, takes the losing Heart finesse, and is still able to dispose of the Diamond loser.
South considered that her hand was too good for a 3♦ preempt (we agree) but not good for a limit raise cue-bid (though it’s not far off), so her plan was to raise to 2♦ and then compete to 3♦ if necessary. South’s plan came unstuck when the bidding was at 3♠ when it got back to her, so she reluctantly sold out.
With trumps 2-2 and the honors split, 3♠ is destined to make 9 tricks, with a loser in each suit. The trump suit holding is similar to the E-W Heart holding on Board 1, except that this time we are also missing the Nine. The percentage play now is to finesse against the Nine on the first round, but that is moot when South plays the Nine, after which the correct play by Declarer is the Ten.
If South does push on to 4♦ she will be wrong in theory but perhaps right in practice. The contract is unlikely to be doubled, so East will need to find the opening lead of the Q♣ if he is to get a good board. A Club lead sets up a ruff for the defense and gets them the magic +200, anything else and it’s only +100 and a bad board.
On lead against 3NT, after the featured auction, East will no doubt lead a minor suit. Perhaps he’ll lead the obvious Club or maybe the ambitious J♦ (trying to “find Partner” on account of his own lack of entries), but it will make no difference, Declarer will come to 11 tricks in a canter. Yes, it’s our nomination for Flattest Board of the Week.
As a general rule, when we have a weak hand and an 8-card suit we preempt to the 4-level, but this suit is so bad that a vulnerable 3♠ seems like quite enough to us. North’s hand was too good for a 4♥ bid, so she doubled first. When the bidding got to South she had a choice between 3NT and Pass, and we like her choice of Pass, after all 3NT was no guarantee to make opposite a typical Double.
In 3♠ doubled, at first glance it looks as if West has 4 trump losers and 3 in the side-suits for a most unpleasant -800. But the tables will be turned if the play goes like this: A♦ cashed on opening lead K♦ ruffed by Declarer Spade Nine won by North’s King Diamond continuation ruffed by West Cross to the A♥ (North will no doubt split her honors) Diamond ruff Low Club to North’s Ace North cashes her Heart winner Club to Dummy’s King Diamond ruff Now, with 3 cards left, both Declarer and South are down to nothing but trumps. Declarer with Qxx exits a low trump to South who, with AJT left is forced to give Declarer his all-important 7th trick. Minus only 500 is a great board for E-W, of course.
The play in this hand is similar to a Trump Coup where Declarer must reduce her trumps down to the same length as the defender in order to effect the end-play. So, it was quite wrong for North to cooperate so willingly in Declarer’s plan. When North wins the K♠ she must not persist with Diamonds, instead she must shift to Hearts or Clubs. Now Declarer is a ruff short of engineering his end-play, and the end position leaves Declarer with ♠Qxxx, and South with ♠AJT and a Club. Declarer is on lead, and South scores all 3 of her trump tricks.
After West’s 3♣ Jump Shift, East had no reason to do anything other than bid 3NT. Suppose that North starts out with the J♦ lead. Prospects look bleak for Declarer, thanks to the poor communication between the two hands, and it looks as if the best chance is to play for Hearts to be 3-3. So, Declarer cashes AK♥, and exits a Heart (pitching Diamonds from the board). North wins and persists with Diamonds, won on the board. Even with the kind Heart break, Declarer still has just 8 tricks, and can get the 9th by leading a Club off the board, planning to finesse if South plays low. When the K♣ pops up it’s 9 tricks, Declarer losing a trick in each suit.
How does a low Spade opening lead work out? North wins the King, and plays on Hearts as before, this time taking care to unblock the A♦ first. North wins the third round of the suit and has no good exit … either she helps Declarer set up his Club suit, or she gives access to Dummy’s winner(s). Her best try is a Diamond, won by Dummy’s King, and now East exits with the K♠, again won by North, and again leaving her with no good exit. As before, it’s 9 tricks.
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