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Hand Analyses 2nd May, 2007
Against 3NT, South will no doubt lead a Heart, won by Dummy’s Ace, North playing a discouraging card. Next will be a Club to the Ace, and South should seriously consider the spectacular unblocking play of the K♣! Presumably Partner has the J♣, because Declarer did not finesse, and unblocking the King would force an entry for that Jack so that Partner can lead a Heart through Declarer.
Just how sound is that spectacular unblocking play? On this hand it’s maybe not such a great idea, albeit tempting. Partner discouraged the opening lead, presumably denying the King (well, we knew that) and the Queen. Yes, she could have the Jack. How about the Jack and the Ten? Probably not, with that holding she might well play the Jack, saying “I don’t have the Queen”, but also saying that she can afford to play the Jack, so it’s surely backed up with the Ten. So, the best Heart holding that we can hope for from Partner is probably J8xx.
If that’s the case, it would be great to make that get-our-name-in-the-newspapers unblocking play when our target is three tricks. We unblock, Partner gets in with the J♣, a Heart comes through and we get our three before Declarer gets his eleven. Does Declarer have 11 tricks? No! That would require Declarer to have the Q♠, Q♥, AK♦, and A♣, and that looks like a 1NT opener to us. So, sadly, the unblock is not a good idea. Oh, yes, one other small point. How embarrassing if we unblock and Partner turns out to have started with just two Clubs!
North’s 5♣ bid looks about right to us, but it was not enough to silence West, who could hardly pass with a void in the enemy suit and undisclosed support for Partner’s suit. East may have been tempted to try the better scoring 5♥ and no doubt would have done if he had known they had a 9-card fit in the suit. N-S would have done well to bid 6♣, taking a rare Red versus White high-level sacrifice, but that was virtually impossible to find.
In 5♦, what should South lead? It’s not obvious, so we’ll just say that if South leads a Spade the defense will get their two tricks, likewise if South improbably starts with the A♥ and gives Partner a ruff. But, if South tries to cash a Club on the go, Declarer has 12 easy tricks.
A nice cue-bidding sequence by N-S to arrive at the cold slam. South’s 2♠ showed Club support and invitational values, and North was too good to bid just game so tried 4♦ along the way. South could hardly have a better passed hand … no wastage in the enemy suit, maximum values, good controls, and an extra trump. So, South bids 4♥, showing a control in that suit, which is all that North needs to know to try the slam. Well done!
West has one of those 5-4 11-counts that most of us seem to open nowadays, and East, despite 12 HCP’s and support for Partner, does not enough to go to game, look at that square shape, abundance of Queens, and astonishing lack of Aces. East’s plan (say over a 2♦ rebid by West) was to jump to 3♥, showing invitational values and 3-card support. After South’s 2♠ bid that jump was no longer possible, of course, but we don’t think that East should do more than bid 3♥, if anything his rotten 12-count has become even worse.
Against 3♥ North leads the J♠ which is ducked around to Declarer’s King. Declarer leads to the K♥ which holds, then comes back to the A♦ and leads Hearts again. This time North jumps up with the Ace and leads another Spade, won by South. Spades are continued, Declarer ruffs high, and draws the last trump. Later, he’ll play on Diamonds by leading towards the Dummy and inserting the Ten if North fails to split her honors. This safety play guarantees just one Diamond loser. The end result will be 9 tricks, Declarer losing one in each suit.
Once North has raised Spades, South’s hand is worth a shot at game, and she bids 4♦ along the way, not as a slam try but as a way of getting Partner involved in the decision if the opponents should bid onto the 5-level. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz. As it happens, E-W are done after North bids 4♠, so that involvement becomes moot.
Against 4♠, West may well choose to start with the A♥, allowing 10 easy tricks for Declarer. At Trick Two, Declarer leads a Club, won by West’s Ace, at which point a trump shift is called for. But to no avail. Declarer has 4 side-suit tricks, and can scramble 6 trump tricks one way or the other. It will either be 5 trumps in her hand and a Diamond ruff on the board, or it will be 4 trump tricks in her hand and two Diamond ruffs on the board, depending on the defense.
The play is more challenging for Declarer if West finds the improbable lead of a trump: Spade lead won by Declarer’s Ten A♦ and K♦ are cashed Diamond lead, ruffed by West’s Queen Spade return won by Declarer’s Ace Diamond ruffed on the board Heart ruffed by Declarer K♠ cashed Here is the end-position, with the lead in Declarer’s hand: Dummy ♠ ♥ K98 ♦ ♣ K8 West East ♠ ♠ ♥ AQJ ♥ T ♦ ♦ Q ♣ A4 ♣ QJ9 Declarer ♠ 4 ♥ ♦ 9 ♣ T53 At this point Declarer has 7 tricks and needs three more. She leads a Club towards Dummy, but is thwarted when West hops up with the Ace and safely exits a Club. This holds Declarer to just 9 tricks.
In the N-S system, a direct 2NT by North was used for another purpose, so, in order to invite game in No Trump, South was obliged to proceed obliquely via Stayman, even though she did not have any interest in a major suit contract. Anyway, we would say that the South hand is quite minimum (perhaps even sub-minimum) for an invitation, that Club suit would be so much more appealing with a filler or two.
East has an obvious Spade opening lead, and Declarer wins the third round. She has 8 top tricks, and, needing a Diamond trick for her 9th, she must hope that Spades are 4-4 (the earlier play will probably have already disabused her of that notion), or that the A♦ is in the hand without the Spades. Making 9 tricks.
After North’s Negative Double, South must decide whether to compete to the three-level in the known 4-4 Heart fit. She’s minimum for her opening bid, of course, and does not want to encourage more bidding from North. Fortunately, she had a gadget available, the Good-Bad 2NT, which has made quite a few appearances in recent Wednesday Games. Using this method, 2NT is a Lebensohl-style relay, and when South then bids 3♥ she is saying “I am merely competing, don’t expect any extras”. With a better hand, South would bid 3♥ directly.
From West’s point of view, a forcing defense may look best, so he starts out with the A♠ and another Spade which is ruffed on the board. Next, the J♥ loses to West’s Ace, and a Spade is continued, ruffed on the board and establishing Declarer Ten. Trumps are drawn and, with Clubs breaking, Declarer racks up a surprising 11 tricks. Of course, the defense can save a trick by grabbing the A♦ in time, but it looks as though 10 tricks are always there for Declarer, thanks to the Club break and the Heart blockage.
North did well to compete to 4♣ in the face of the strong E-W auction, and West’s Double was no sure thing.
When Dummy goes down, one can hardly blame North for being disappointed … only 3 trumps, a second Heart, no Aces, and loads of Diamond wastage. Hardly the Dummy of her dreams. Declarer has 4 top losers and must also do something about that third Heart loser and the potential Spade loser. Her plan should be to ruff the third Heart and pitch the Spade on her Diamond winner, and this plan will probably be helped along when East starts out with the lead of the Q♥. But, with the doubleton QJ of Spades in the East hand, almost any line of play is likely to work, allowing Declarer to escape for down one, minus 100, and a decent board.
South’s 2NT was for the minors (Unusual No Trump), after which many partnerships use 3♠ by West as purely competitive (less than invitational, in other words), with one of the minor suit cue-bids available to show a stronger hand with support. West has a top-of-the-line competitive raise … 9 HCP’s and 4-card support is nice, and might be worth an invitational raise if it were not for the fact that the trumps are weak and the Q♣ appears to be a useless card. However, East certainly has West covered and the game is reached.
With the Heart finesse working it may look as if 12 tricks can be made, but that’s not quite possible. Two Heart ruffs are required on the board, and that is derailed by the 3-1 trump split. Nor can Declarer attempt to get the second ruff before drawing the last trump, because of North’s doubleton Diamond. So, 11 tricks at every table?
East’s 3♠ was preemptive, putting South on the spot. If East had kept silent, then no doubt South would think that she had done plenty with a simple raise to 3♥. But in the face of the 3♠ preempt she must do even more, and bid 4♥. Only 8 HCP’s, not much (actually nothing) in the way of distribution, but at least the points all appear to be working, and there are some useful-looking fillers. This is what the bridge literature calls an “uncomfortable 4♥ bid”, in other words a bid which has to be made, but it’s under pressure and may work out badly.
This time it does not work out badly at all, it’s a friendly hand, and 11 tricks occur.
We’d like you to look at the East hand via the Bidding Quiz, both of his bids have points of interest.
In 3NT all roads seem to lead to 10 tricks.
How frustrating for South! She has a solid major and no realistic prospects for game opposite Partner’s preempt. 3♠ would be forcing, of course, so the practical bid is probably Pass, and the 3♣ contract is destined to go down one. Frustrating, indeed!
If N-S somehow manage to play in Spades, they might score a surprising number of tricks. For example, West might start with the A♥, allowing Declarer to score 2 ruffs on the board and 10 tricks altogether. A trump lead, of course, will prevent one of those tricks.
2NT openings often lead to imperfect auctions and here is a case in point. North has no satisfactory way of bidding her hand and so simply offers Partner a choice between 3NT and 4♠, even though it’s quite possible that 3NT could be going down with 6♦ cold.
4♠ is the normal spot, however, and on the routine lead of the J♦ Declarer can amass 12 tricks with good play. Here’s how: J♦ opening lead won by Declarer’s King Diamond to Dummy’s Nine Spade to Declarer’s Jack A♥ and K♥ are cashed, pitching a Club from the board A♣ cashed Club ruff A♦ and Q♦ are cashed, Declarer pitching Hearts, West pitching Clubs This is the end position, with the lead in Dummy: Dummy ♠ T85 ♥ ♦ 4 ♣ West East Immaterial ♠ KQ7 ♥ ♦ ♣ K Declarer ♠ A9 ♥ ♦ ♣ J9 Dummy leads a low Spade and whatever East does he scores only one trick.
North’s 2♦ was game-forcing, after which South faced a common 2/1 problem. Most 2/1 pairs play that a rebid here of 3♣ shows extra values, which raises the issue of what South’s rebid should be. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz.
6NT is not easy to reach but it is an excellent contract, provided that it is played by the South hand, protecting the Club holding from the opening lead. All it requires for success is 3-2 Diamonds or singleton Jack, and even if that fails there is the extra chance that the Spades behave (3-3 or doubleton Ten) and the Club King is on-side. All in all it’s around 80% to succeed, pretty good odds!
There’s not much to the auction, nor to the play. South has no obvious lead but whatever she selects it will be 11 tricks for Declarer. But along the way there is one little wrinkle in the play. Suppose that South leads a trump and that trumps are drawn in three rounds. Declarer is hoping to avoid two losers in each red suit and does best to take the “unnecessary” Club finesse. If the finesse wins, a Heart goes away on the Ace. If the finesse loses, two Hearts go away on the AQ, and the two potential Heart losers are traded for one Club loser. Nice play, but with all the red cards well-placed, inferior play would also be rewarded.
South’s 2♣ was game-forcing, North’s 3♠ was a slam try, and N-S stopped in game when it became apparent that neither player had a Diamond control. Yes, scientific bidding kept N-S from getting too high, but it also told East to lead a Diamond, holding Declarer to 11 tricks when 12 were available on any other lead.
Perhaps we are being “result merchants” here, but we wonder whether North should bother to make a slam try. Sure, she has a few extra HCP’s, but South needs to have quite a lot for slam to be a good proposition, for example A♠, A♥, A♦, K♣. Even that does not make 6♥ cold, and with such an impressive collection maybe South should make a try. Perhaps North should downgrade on account of that QJ doubleton in Diamonds. Anyway, if North does bid just 4♥ (over 3♥) East may well find the lead of a Diamond from Kxxxx to be altogether too risky, allowing Declarer to score an extra trick.
The auction is brief and to the point and it will be 10 tricks if West leads Partner’s suit. West might reasonably lead a black suit trying to get to Partner’s hand for a Heart though Declarer, and if he selects the J♠ Declarer will establish her 10th trick by leading a Spade right back at Trick Two. It takes an improbable minor suit lead to hold Declarer to 9 tricks.
North is not quite strong enough to double the 1NT overcall, so she settles for a simple 2♣ competitive bid. It takes a trump lead to beat this contract, but a Spade or a Diamond seems more likely to us, and either of these allows Declarer to organize a Spade ruff in Dummy for the 8th trick.
North’s Double may seem somewhat odd with that doubleton Club and with the alternative bid of 2♦ available, but presumably N-S are playing a device called Equal Level Conversion, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. South’s 3♠ was an invitation to game which was politely declined.
If West starts out with the opening lead of the A♥, Declarer will make 10 tricks, despite the bad trump break: A♥ opening lead Q♥ to Declarer’s King Club taken by West’s Ace Club to Dummy’s King Spade to Declarer’s Nine Heart ruff in Dummy A♦ and K♦ are cashed (Declarer pitching a Club) Diamond ruff Club ruff At this point, East is down to the KQ7 of trumps, but that holding is worth only one trick in the end game.
If West refrains from that A♥ lead, the play will be similar except that the K♥ will not be scored and just 9 tricks will be made.
Against 3NT, East will doubtless lead a Spade to Partner’s Queen and the play might start as follows: Spade opening lead to the Queen and Ace, Dummy pitching a Club Q♦ lead, ducked by East, Dummy unblocking the Nine (nice play!) J♦ covered by the King and Dummy’s Ace Diamond Eight, overtaken by Declarer’s Ten Q♣ covered by the King and Dummy’s Ace At this point Declarer should place the K♥ with West, unless that player is notorious for making 5-point vulnerable overcalls. So, she plays the A♥ and the Q♥, making 11 tricks when the Hearts are 3-3.
Do you see the point of that Diamond unblock? Let’s suppose that the K♣ and the K♥ changed hands, so that West’s new hand is: ♠ KQ753 ♥ T52 ♦ 764 ♣ K9 Now, at Trick 5, the Club finesse loses, West exits with a Club to Declarer’s Jack. The Heart finesse wins, and now Declarer has that Diamond Five as an entry back to her hand for the second Heart finesse (hoping, of course, that West did not duck smoothly with the King on the first round of Hearts).
Let’s consider the plight of poor South. Her original plan was to rebid 3♥, showing 3-card support and invitational values, but that option was removed by East’s 3♠. Now, 4♥ would be an overbid, but, on the other hand, it would be more dangerous to pass with undisclosed support, extra values, and shortness in the opponents’ suit. We think that South’s 4♥ was a reasonable guess in the circumstances, and it turns out to be wrong in theory but right in practice. If left to play in 4♥, N-S will be -200 (thanks to two Diamond ruffs) for a terrible board. But West will surely bid 4♠, not really knowing whether he is bidding 4♠ to make or as a sacrifice. To his chagrin he will find that it is neither.
East’s Weak Two may not be to everybody’s taste, especially when vulnerable, but it certainly meets our two main criteria for such a bid … poor defense and good offense. But, nonetheless, N-S zip into 5♦ and Declarer must have been delighted when she saw that there was a Diamond loser, scuppering the ambitions of those N-S pairs playing in 3NT.
In the play of 5♦, Declarer must be just a little bit careful. The opening Spade lead is won by Declarer’s Ace and the Diamond finesse taken. When East shows out, Declarer must cash the A♥ and lose a Heart before drawing a second round of trumps. This way she ensures getting the necessary two Heart ruffs on the board.
Assuming that E-W were indeed playing Weak Jump Shifts, the East hand ws altogether too strong for such a bid, just too much in the way of defense, and HCP’s, and offensive potential.
Playing in 2♠, Declarer will make 9 tricks unless North is at the top of her defensive game. South will lead the K♦, and North might well think that there is no need to stop Diamond ruffs on the board, as she can overruff. But, if she stops to reflect, she should conclude that Declarer is unlikely to have AKQxxx of trumps, that might be a 3♠ rebid. So, South has a trump honor, and, if that honor is the Queen, the Diamond overruff will be at the expense of the defense’s natural trump trick. In effect, the defense will be using its trump winner to ruff one of Declarer’s Diamond losers. So, realizing that South cannot break trumps from her side, North must overtake the Diamond at Trick One, and shoot back a trump. Declarer wins the Ace, loses a Diamond, but another trump comes back and the defense ends up scoring 4 Diamonds and a trump. Good defense, but not easy to find at the table, we would say.
Boards 14 and 24 both featured 2/1 rebid choices for Opener, and the two hands are discussed in the Bidding Quiz under Board 14.
In 3NT it looks as if 10 tricks will be made, provided that South does not fall into this trap: Spade lead won by Declarer J♦, correctly ducked by South Diamond to South’s Ace Spade return, won on the board Diamonds cashed, Declarer pitching Clubs, South pitching Spades A♠ cashed, Declarer pitching another Club A♥ and K♥ are cashed A Heart is lost to South’s Queen. Now, 11 tricks are made. South had to unblock the Queen on the second round of the suit, so that her Partner wins the third round of Hearts and cashes the Diamond winner.
North’s 3♠ showed a 4♥ bid with shortness in Spades, and the normal Heart game was reached. That 3♠ Splinter will likely dissuade West from his obvious K♠ lead, and he’ll probably take a shot at the Q♦. This gets the defense its two Diamond tricks, but that it also sets up a pitch for the potential Club loser, and, with the trump finesse working, it will be 11 tricks.
If West does start out the defense with the K♠ lead, Declarer wins the A♠ and draws three rounds of trumps. Now Declarer has no convenient way back to her hand to take the Club finesse, and so has two ways to proceed: - The fast and loose line is to play the Clubs from the top, hitting pay-dirt when the Queen comes down singleton or doubleton (as it will 33% of the time). Now Declarer has 12 tricks. That’s very nice, but also risky. If either defender started with Q9xx or Q9xxx of Clubs (17% of the time), Declarer will make just 9 or 10 tricks (depending on the location of the A♦). - The safe line of play is for the first round of Clubs to be low from the board, protecting against the bad split but giving up on the chance of 12 tricks. This line harvests 11 tricks 75% of the time, but just 10 tricks if West has the Q♣ and East has the A♦.
The risky line is the percentage matchpoint play, it gains more often than it loses. But not in a team game, at that form of scoring we’ll ensure our contract.
West’s 2♣ was Fourth Suit Forcing and the obvious 3NT was reached. South leads the Club Four to North’s Ace, and the Three is returned. It looks like the most natural thing in the world to finesse here, but let’s at least pause for thought. What sort of opening leads do the defenders play against No Trump contracts? Many pairs lead second highest from 4 small, for example the Six from 9654 (but the Nine from 9854). If N-S is such a pair, then Declarer can be virtually certain that Clubs are 4-4 with the Queen in the South hand. So there’s no point in finessing the Club, it’s better to hop up with the King, just on the remote off-chance that all the other finesses are working. Declarer tries Diamonds first and notes that South has the length in that suit so places North with the Spade length and therefore the Q♠. And when the Heart finesse also works it’s 12 tricks!
We think that West overbid when he invited game, as 15-counts go this one is rather poor. As for East, he was in the middle of his range in terms of HCP’s, and who can blame him for accepting, that T♦ is a big card. Some of the most interesting contracts are the result of overbidding, and this one is a case in point. In fact, we present it as two separate problems: - South leads the Spade Three … please see Play Problem # 150 - South leads the J♦ … please see Play Problem # 151
North transferred to Spades, then bid an invitational 4NT, see the Bidding Quiz for some variations on this sequence. As for South, she showed 20-21, and was delighted to accept the invitation with her outstanding 20. Should she bid 6♠ or 6NT? Either could work, guess wisely.
6♠ is only a so-so contract. If the defense finds a Heart lead, Declarer must rely on the Spade finesse, and a 3-2 split (or singleton King with East). If the defense fails to find the Heart lead, prospects are much brighter, and the slam will usually make even when the Spade finesse loses. Anyway, whatever the lead, when Spades behave it’s 13 tricks.
At first glance, 6NT may appear to have similar chances of success to 6♠, but in fact 6NT is a decidedly inferior contract. First of all, after an opening Heart lead, if the Spade finesse loses, it goes down at least three tricks. And, worse than that, there is only a remote chance of making 13 tricks when the K♠ is onside. Because of the entry situation, if East has Kxx of Spades, Declarer must overtake a Club winner to get back to the Spades, sacrificing the 13th trick in the process. For those who like things quantified, we can say that 6NT scores worse than 6♠ (because of more undertricks or no overtrick) no less than 84% of the time. But, on the actual deal, the 6NT bidders lead a charmed life and their 16% comes in with the doubleton King onside (singleton King would also have worked). No justice for the good bidders on this one!
This deal has all the makings of a painful experience for E-W. Over 3♣, East might have bid 3♦ but Pass is also reasonable. South has the best hand at the table but is shut out of the auction, and West comes in with a balancing Double. It’s hard to blame East for trying 3NT, but this will not be a great success! North starts out with Hearts from the top (no reason to lead 4th best when she has the A♠ entry), Declarer loses the Diamond finesse, and it’s down three! When North wins her singleton K♦, how will she know to return a Spade and not a Club? Simple enough, South will play the Ten on the third round of Hearts, a clear suit preference signal.
This hand belongs to E-W who can make all sorts of low-level contracts, including 8 tricks in No Trump. However, in the featured auction, it’s North that ends up declaring 1NT. Will she be down two (good board) or down three (bad board)? Probably it will be down three, though there is am improbable line that allows her to escape for down two (win the Diamond lead, exit a Heart, win the Diamond return, cash the other high Diamond, exit a Diamond, after which West is destined to be end-played in Clubs).
Incidentally, playing a 15-17 No Trump, we’d say that South, with that nice 14-count is close to upgrading her hand to a 1NT opening, perhaps just a Ten away.
The South hand here is remarkably similar to that on Board 30. There she declined to open a 14-point 1NT, but this time it was just too good to resist!
West’s 2♦ was DONT, showing Diamonds and a major, and North wheeled out some Lebensohl gadgetry. 2NT was a relay to 3♣, after which 3♦ was Stayman (also showing a Diamond stopper).
Against 3NT West will lead a Spade. But which one? This may seem like an irrelevant question, but in fact it could have a profound effect on the play. Here are the two cases: - If West leads the Seven (top of nothing), or the Six (second highest from 4 or 5 small cards), Declarer can reasonably place the QJT with East. She’ll win the Ace at Trick One, play a Club to the King, and finesse the T♣ on the way back. Now, a Spade is continued, and Declarer will take the King immediately, knowing that if Spades are 5-3 the suit is blocked. At this point it would be a mistake to cash the Clubs, that would give East the chance to make the spectacular jettison of the Q♠! Instead, Declarer goes after her 9th trick in Diamonds, and, if she runs the Jack, she’ll end up with 10 tricks. - If West leads a 4th best Spade, things will not be so crystal clear to Declarer, she’ll be more inclined to place West with Qxxxx in the suit. Therefore, her best chance to make the contract is to duck the second round of Spades and hope that the Q♦ is with West, and the A♦ with East.
Is it obvious which Spade West should lead at Trick One? Dr Goodlead got this one right, saying “I have two outside entries, so I want Partner to continue Spades if he ever gets in. Showing a weak Spade holding will not encourage that, so I lead the stronger-looking fourth best”.
With the East hand, would you make a limit raise or would you preempt? We think it’s too good for a preempt, and East obviously agreed, that 3♦ bid (not playing Inverted Minors) showed invitational values. East’s hand got even better when South doubled, and his 4♥ bid was Redwood, checking on Partner’s Key Cards. When only one Key Card was missing (1430 response) the slam looked like a good bet, surely the Spade finesse would be working.
There no obvious reason why North should lead a Club, let’s assume that he starts with a Heart. Trumps are drawn and the Spade finesse wins. Declarer can now go for the gusto by cashing the Hearts and all the trumps, squeezing South in the black suits. For the squeeze to be operational Declarer must take only one Spade finesse before running those red suit winners.
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