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Hand Analyses 25th April, 2007
There are some who might prefer to open 1♦ with the North hand, in order to avoid a rebid problem, it’s a valid point of view, please see the Bidding Quiz. As for West, there are some who might leap majestically to 4♠ over South’s 2♣, on the Total Trick basis that they have a 10-card fit, but for 4♠ we would prefer a hand with a singleton somewhere, the actual West hand has altogether too many losers.
Playing in 4♣, North will just have to get the trump suit right to make 10 tricks. On the first round of trumps, Declarer will lead low towards the King, as a precaution against the singleton Ace with East, and that also happens to take away any possibility of a wrong guess for the Jack. So, making 10 tricks.
Back to the bidding. Suppose that West does indeed leap all the way to 4♠ over 2♣. That goes down two and scores better than defending 4♣, unless N-S can find a Double. Will they? North has nothing to say on the matter. South has limited her hand with that 2♣ bid, is she even allowed to bid again? Sure, if her hand has unusually good defense she is allowed to make a “matchpoint Double”. South certainly has maximum HCP values, but it’s not obvious that she should Double. So, West will likely be rewarded for his overbid.
We predict a variety of auctions on this board, this is just one of many possibilities. The auction shown was brought about by a light (but quite normal) opening bid from North, an imperfect 1NT overcall (perhaps 2♦ would be better), and an aggressive Double of 1NT by South.
Anyway, on to the play. N-S have an easy 9 tricks in Clubs, and E-W will make 8 tricks in Diamonds. The really interesting contract is 2♠, played by East after West’s transfer. Here’s a line of play which allows the contract to make, and the question is “Where did the defense go wrong?”: K♣, won by Declarer’s Ace Diamond to North’s Jack J♣ cashed Heart to Declarer’s Ace Diamond to North’s King Heart to Declarer’s King Diamond ruff in Dummy (South pitching a Club) Heart, ruffed by Declarer’s Queen, over-ruffed by the King Spade to Declarer’s Ten Heart, ruffed and overruffed Dummy’s trumps win the last three tricks Yes, North goofed after she had cashed the J♣. A trump return is required to stop one of those Heart ruffs in Declarer’s hand. That way, the defense scores the same 3 minor suit winners and the same 2 trumps, and a Heart is the setting trick.
Even if N-S had managed to set 2♠ one trick, that would still not be such a wonderful result, just +100, losing to all those +110’s for the N-S pairs who bid and made 3♣. South would have done better to get her suit into the auction, rather than make that thin Double against non-vulnerable opponents.
It’s usually not good when we let the opponents play at the two-level in a 9-card fit when we have half the HCP’s, and it’s even less auspicious when we have a 9-card fit of our own. But, that’s what happened to N-S on this board, non-vulnerable no less. Did N-S blunder? Not as far as we can see. North was not quite good enough for a 2♥ bid over 1♠ and had to make do with a Negative Double. As for South, she had a rock-bottom minimum opening bid and could hardly bid 3♥ for fear that Partner would assume better values and push on to game. Having said all that, there was a way around the problem, namely the Good-Bad 2NT, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against a Spade contract, North will lead a Club, and now there is no way for Declarer to avoid the loss of 5 tricks. Perhaps we should return to the bidding at this point. Do you think that West did enough in the featured auction? Perhaps not, isn’t he worth a game try with that lovely distribution? We think so, which is a most unfortunate opinion, because that will get E-W too high! But most unlucky for E-W that all of East’s points are opposite West’s void.
How does Hearts do? No doubt it will be played by South, and West, for want of a better lead, will start with the A♠. Now, if West is at the top of his game, he may shift to a Diamond, won by South’s Jack. East wins the first round of trumps, returns a Diamond, wins his other high trump, crosses to Partner’s A♣ and enjoys a Diamond ruff. And, if West is allowed to be that smart, perhaps South should be permitted to find the double dummy riposte … upon winning that devilish Diamond shift with the J♦, Declarer can play on Clubs before trumps, knocking out West’s entry and preventing the ruff.
West’s Double of 4♦ was a Responsive Double, please see the Bidding Quiz. In a contract of 4♥, 10 tricks can be made, but only if East plays both of the major suit card combinations correctly: - When Declarer plays the A♥, and South plays the Jack, the choice must be made between playing for the drop, or finessing against North’s hoped-for Queen. Which should it be? The Principle of Restricted Choice says “play for the drop”, and this is an almost 2 to 1 favorite, all things being equal. Are all things equal? Not quite, North has 6 Diamonds, South has 4, which gives South a little more room for the missing J♥. But the extra space is not enough to overcome the Restricted Choice odds, so Declarer should finesse. - When Declarer plays Spades, it would be a big mistake to finesse the Queen, that would merely create a second loser in the suit. There is always at least one Spade to be lost, on account of the poor spots, and the best way to avoid a second loser is to lay down the A♠, and lead towards the QJ.
Back to the bidding. As South, were you tempted to bid 5♦ instead of just 4♦? We know that we would have been. Much depends on the partnership preempting style, of course, if you can count on Partner not to be loaded with defense then taking the advance save in 5♦ is worth considering. A close decision, not guaranteed to succeed, but a winner on the actual layout.
North showed 20-21 HCP’s and the obvious 3NT was reached. This should end up as 11 tricks for Declarer, but there is the opportunity for Declarer to wangle an extra trick if East is not paying attention. Suppose that East leads the J♥, won by Declarer’s King. Now, Declarer tests the Clubs, and, when both defenders follow to the second round, she ducks a Diamond into the West hand. West returns the Spade Five, won by Declarer’s Ace, after which she cashes all her winners, hoping to catch East in a pseudo-squeeze. East must hang on to his three remaining Diamonds, which will mean that he must bare his K♠. Will it be obvious to East to do this? It really ought to be, there will be three reliable clues: - Partner probably has the Q♠ for that switch to a low Spade, with nothing in the suit he would usually play a higher card; - If Declarer had the Q♠ he’d no doubt have finessed it; - Declarer has shown 20-21 HCP’s, meaning that Partner has 2 or 3. By the time it comes to make the decision, West will be known to have just one point outside of Spades. So, unless North’s 2NT was out-of-range, West must have the Q♠. But, if East falls from grace, then full credit to Declarer for ducking that Diamond and giving East a chance to go wrong.
West’s 2♠ showed Heart support and invitational values or better, after which E-W reach the routine game. South starts out with the A♦ and the K♦ and Declarer ruffs the second round. Next, comes the Heart guess, and there are two good reasons to play North for the Queen: - The only 4-1 trump break that can be picked up for no losers is if North has the length. - South does not need the Q♥ for her overcall, the AK♦ and the QJ♠ are plenty. So, it’s reasonable to guess that the Q♥ is with the presumed length, and that is in the hand that is short in Spades. So, it’s a Heart to the King, a successful Heart finesse (South showing out), and back to the K♣ for another Heart finesse. The last trump is drawn and Declarer goes through the motions of cashing his Clubs, on the off-chance that South started with AKQJT of Diamonds will be caught in a Spade-Diamond squeeze. But that is a pipe-dream, and a Spade must eventually be lost. Making 11 tricks.
After East has bid 2♣ it’s inevitable that North will wind up as Declarer in a 3NT contract. Let’s suppose that East leads a Club, won by Dummy’s Nine. Declarer is at the crossroads. One option is to cash 9 tricks and go to the next board, but that’s not very adventurous. For his vulnerable 2♣ overcall it seems likely that the A♠ is with East, in which case Declarer can knock out the A♠ for an easy 11 tricks (but only 7 if the A♠ unexpectedly shows up in the West hand!). In fact, it may well be 12 tricks. When East wins the A♠, say at Trick Two, it won’t be completely obvious to cash the A♣ (East does not know that Declarer has the K♥ and therefore 11 sure tricks), and if East fails to do so he will be caught in a Heart-Club squeeze when the Spades and Diamonds are cashed.
It would be quite reasonable for East to try an opening lead of a low Spade, after which Declarer will likely return a Spade. East wins this and continues the suit, but is now the victim of another Heart-Club squeeze when Declarer runs Dummy’s Diamonds. East will come down to 4 cards and must hold on to 3 Hearts, allowing Declarer to set up a Club trick by force. That will be 11 tricks for Declarer.
The only way in which Declarer can be held to 10 tricks is if East starts out with the highly improbable opening lead of a low Heart. Then, when he gets in with the A♠, another Heart ends all squeeze possibilities.
North is not quite strong enough for a jump shift, and the likely final contract is 3NT played from the South side. West leads a Club, won by Dummy’s Ten. Then a Diamond to the Ace, and a Spade finesse losing to East’s Queen. Back comes a Club to Declarer’s King and West’s Ace. West does best to get out a Diamond, and when the Diamond break is revealed, and when the J♠ falls, Declarer can count 10 top tricks, via 3 Spades, a Heart, 4 Diamonds and 2 Clubs. There is one small snag, of course, there is no entry to the Dummy for that second Club. Not to worry! Declarer won’t score that second Club trick, but she will score her 10th trick in more exotic fashion. Here’s the end-position, with one Spade left to cash: Dummy ♠ T ♥ A8 ♦ 7 ♣ West East ♠ Immaterial ♥ K9 ♦ T ♣ J Declarer ♠ ♥ QT6 ♦ ♣ Q On Dummy’s last Spade, Declarer pitches a Club, and West is squeezed in 3 suits: - If West pitches a Heart, Declarer’s Hearts are good - If West pitches a Diamond, Dummy’s last Diamond is the 10th trick - So, West pitches the J♣, but now he is thrown in with a Diamond and is forced to lead away from his K♥.
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