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Hand Analyses 25th April, 2007
There are some who might prefer to open 1♦ with the North hand, in order to avoid a rebid problem, it’s a valid point of view, please see the Bidding Quiz. As for West, there are some who might leap majestically to 4♠ over South’s 2♣, on the Total Trick basis that they have a 10-card fit, but for 4♠ we would prefer a hand with a singleton somewhere, the actual West hand has altogether too many losers.
Playing in 4♣, North will just have to get the trump suit right to make 10 tricks. On the first round of trumps, Declarer will lead low towards the King, as a precaution against the singleton Ace with East, and that also happens to take away any possibility of a wrong guess for the Jack. So, making 10 tricks.
Back to the bidding. Suppose that West does indeed leap all the way to 4♠ over 2♣. That goes down two and scores better than defending 4♣, unless N-S can find a Double. Will they? North has nothing to say on the matter. South has limited her hand with that 2♣ bid, is she even allowed to bid again? Sure, if her hand has unusually good defense she is allowed to make a “matchpoint Double”. South certainly has maximum HCP values, but it’s not obvious that she should Double. So, West will likely be rewarded for his overbid.
We predict a variety of auctions on this board, this is just one of many possibilities. The auction shown was brought about by a light (but quite normal) opening bid from North, an imperfect 1NT overcall (perhaps 2♦ would be better), and an aggressive Double of 1NT by South.
Anyway, on to the play. N-S have an easy 9 tricks in Clubs, and E-W will make 8 tricks in Diamonds. The really interesting contract is 2♠, played by East after West’s transfer. Here’s a line of play which allows the contract to make, and the question is “Where did the defense go wrong?”: K♣, won by Declarer’s Ace Diamond to North’s Jack J♣ cashed Heart to Declarer’s Ace Diamond to North’s King Heart to Declarer’s King Diamond ruff in Dummy (South pitching a Club) Heart, ruffed by Declarer’s Queen, over-ruffed by the King Spade to Declarer’s Ten Heart, ruffed and overruffed Dummy’s trumps win the last three tricks Yes, North goofed after she had cashed the J♣. A trump return is required to stop one of those Heart ruffs in Declarer’s hand. That way, the defense scores the same 3 minor suit winners and the same 2 trumps, and a Heart is the setting trick.
Even if N-S had managed to set 2♠ one trick, that would still not be such a wonderful result, just +100, losing to all those +110’s for the N-S pairs who bid and made 3♣. South would have done better to get her suit into the auction, rather than make that thin Double against non-vulnerable opponents.
It’s usually not good when we let the opponents play at the two-level in a 9-card fit when we have half the HCP’s, and it’s even less auspicious when we have a 9-card fit of our own. But, that’s what happened to N-S on this board, non-vulnerable no less. Did N-S blunder? Not as far as we can see. North was not quite good enough for a 2♥ bid over 1♠ and had to make do with a Negative Double. As for South, she had a rock-bottom minimum opening bid and could hardly bid 3♥ for fear that Partner would assume better values and push on to game. Having said all that, there was a way around the problem, namely the Good-Bad 2NT, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against a Spade contract, North will lead a Club, and now there is no way for Declarer to avoid the loss of 5 tricks. Perhaps we should return to the bidding at this point. Do you think that West did enough in the featured auction? Perhaps not, isn’t he worth a game try with that lovely distribution? We think so, which is a most unfortunate opinion, because that will get E-W too high! But most unlucky for E-W that all of East’s points are opposite West’s void.
How does Hearts do? No doubt it will be played by South, and West, for want of a better lead, will start with the A♠. Now, if West is at the top of his game, he may shift to a Diamond, won by South’s Jack. East wins the first round of trumps, returns a Diamond, wins his other high trump, crosses to Partner’s A♣ and enjoys a Diamond ruff. And, if West is allowed to be that smart, perhaps South should be permitted to find the double dummy riposte … upon winning that devilish Diamond shift with the J♦, Declarer can play on Clubs before trumps, knocking out West’s entry and preventing the ruff.
West’s Double of 4♦ was a Responsive Double, please see the Bidding Quiz. In a contract of 4♥, 10 tricks can be made, but only if East plays both of the major suit card combinations correctly: - When Declarer plays the A♥, and South plays the Jack, the choice must be made between playing for the drop, or finessing against North’s hoped-for Queen. Which should it be? The Principle of Restricted Choice says “play for the drop”, and this is an almost 2 to 1 favorite, all things being equal. Are all things equal? Not quite, North has 6 Diamonds, South has 4, which gives South a little more room for the missing J♥. But the extra space is not enough to overcome the Restricted Choice odds, so Declarer should finesse. - When Declarer plays Spades, it would be a big mistake to finesse the Queen, that would merely create a second loser in the suit. There is always at least one Spade to be lost, on account of the poor spots, and the best way to avoid a second loser is to lay down the A♠, and lead towards the QJ.
Back to the bidding. As South, were you tempted to bid 5♦ instead of just 4♦? We know that we would have been. Much depends on the partnership preempting style, of course, if you can count on Partner not to be loaded with defense then taking the advance save in 5♦ is worth considering. A close decision, not guaranteed to succeed, but a winner on the actual layout.
North showed 20-21 HCP’s and the obvious 3NT was reached. This should end up as 11 tricks for Declarer, but there is the opportunity for Declarer to wangle an extra trick if East is not paying attention. Suppose that East leads the J♥, won by Declarer’s King. Now, Declarer tests the Clubs, and, when both defenders follow to the second round, she ducks a Diamond into the West hand. West returns the Spade Five, won by Declarer’s Ace, after which she cashes all her winners, hoping to catch East in a pseudo-squeeze. East must hang on to his three remaining Diamonds, which will mean that he must bare his K♠. Will it be obvious to East to do this? It really ought to be, there will be three reliable clues: - Partner probably has the Q♠ for that switch to a low Spade, with nothing in the suit he would usually play a higher card; - If Declarer had the Q♠ he’d no doubt have finessed it; - Declarer has shown 20-21 HCP’s, meaning that Partner has 2 or 3. By the time it comes to make the decision, West will be known to have just one point outside of Spades. So, unless North’s 2NT was out-of-range, West must have the Q♠. But, if East falls from grace, then full credit to Declarer for ducking that Diamond and giving East a chance to go wrong.
West’s 2♠ showed Heart support and invitational values or better, after which E-W reach the routine game. South starts out with the A♦ and the K♦ and Declarer ruffs the second round. Next, comes the Heart guess, and there are two good reasons to play North for the Queen: - The only 4-1 trump break that can be picked up for no losers is if North has the length. - South does not need the Q♥ for her overcall, the AK♦ and the QJ♠ are plenty. So, it’s reasonable to guess that the Q♥ is with the presumed length, and that is in the hand that is short in Spades. So, it’s a Heart to the King, a successful Heart finesse (South showing out), and back to the K♣ for another Heart finesse. The last trump is drawn and Declarer goes through the motions of cashing his Clubs, on the off-chance that South started with AKQJT of Diamonds will be caught in a Spade-Diamond squeeze. But that is a pipe-dream, and a Spade must eventually be lost. Making 11 tricks.
After East has bid 2♣ it’s inevitable that North will wind up as Declarer in a 3NT contract. Let’s suppose that East leads a Club, won by Dummy’s Nine. Declarer is at the crossroads. One option is to cash 9 tricks and go to the next board, but that’s not very adventurous. For his vulnerable 2♣ overcall it seems likely that the A♠ is with East, in which case Declarer can knock out the A♠ for an easy 11 tricks (but only 7 if the A♠ unexpectedly shows up in the West hand!). In fact, it may well be 12 tricks. When East wins the A♠, say at Trick Two, it won’t be completely obvious to cash the A♣ (East does not know that Declarer has the K♥ and therefore 11 sure tricks), and if East fails to do so he will be caught in a Heart-Club squeeze when the Spades and Diamonds are cashed.
It would be quite reasonable for East to try an opening lead of a low Spade, after which Declarer will likely return a Spade. East wins this and continues the suit, but is now the victim of another Heart-Club squeeze when Declarer runs Dummy’s Diamonds. East will come down to 4 cards and must hold on to 3 Hearts, allowing Declarer to set up a Club trick by force. That will be 11 tricks for Declarer.
The only way in which Declarer can be held to 10 tricks is if East starts out with the highly improbable opening lead of a low Heart. Then, when he gets in with the A♠, another Heart ends all squeeze possibilities.
North is not quite strong enough for a jump shift, and the likely final contract is 3NT played from the South side. West leads a Club, won by Dummy’s Ten. Then a Diamond to the Ace, and a Spade finesse losing to East’s Queen. Back comes a Club to Declarer’s King and West’s Ace. West does best to get out a Diamond, and when the Diamond break is revealed, and when the J♠ falls, Declarer can count 10 top tricks, via 3 Spades, a Heart, 4 Diamonds and 2 Clubs. There is one small snag, of course, there is no entry to the Dummy for that second Club. Not to worry! Declarer won’t score that second Club trick, but she will score her 10th trick in more exotic fashion. Here’s the end-position, with one Spade left to cash: Dummy ♠ T ♥ A8 ♦ 7 ♣ West East ♠ Immaterial ♥ K9 ♦ T ♣ J Declarer ♠ ♥ QT6 ♦ ♣ Q On Dummy’s last Spade, Declarer pitches a Club, and West is squeezed in 3 suits: - If West pitches a Heart, Declarer’s Hearts are good - If West pitches a Diamond, Dummy’s last Diamond is the 10th trick - So, West pitches the J♣, but now he is thrown in with a Diamond and is forced to lead away from his K♥.
We wonder why East risked that vulnerable two-level overcall with such a nondescript hand, especially as he was likely to be on lead himself against a Spade contract. Anyway, East will presumably lead the J♣ against North’s 4♠, and Declarer will win this in Dummy, cash the A♠, and lead towards her Q♠. Should she play low from her hand, hoping for KJ doubleton on her left? Or should she play the Queen hoping that the King is with West? There are two good reasons for Declarer to get this one right: - There are only 14 missing HCP’s, and West no doubt has the Q♣. If West also has the K♠ that leaves East with a maximum of 9 HCP’s for that (ill-advised?) overcall, somewhat unlikely we would say. - Even without an overcall from East, Declarer should still guess right. By the time that Declarer makes her guess the two missing Spades will be the King and the Ten, and, if East had started with JT then he might well have played the Ten on the first round. It’s the Principle of Restricted Choice in action, and it tells Declarer to play low from her hand on the second Spade.
False Card Opportunity! Imagine now that you are East, that you have J9 doubleton of Spades. No doubt you did not overcall with this hand, you lead the J♣, and Declarer plays the A♠. If Partner holds KTx of trumps you can trick Declarer by playing the Jack! This gives Declarer a way to go wrong and she will likely duck the second Spade to your Nine! But, there’s a downside to this chicanery. If Partner has Qxx instead of KTx, then the defense’s certain trump trick has just been squandered!
The auction may not be particularly exciting, but the play of this hand is the most interesting of the set. West does not have an attractive lead, and will probably try the unbid suit, cashing the A♠. He continues with the Spade Eight, won by Dummy’s Jack (East must not cover). At this point, the obvious line of play is for Declarer to ruff a couple of Diamonds in her hand, and to finesse against West’s hoped-for Q♥. If the finesse works and the red suits are amiable that will be an easy 12 tricks. So, after winning the J♠ on the board, Declarer cashes the A♦, ruffs a Diamond, and finesses the J♥, won by East’s Queen. Back comes a Club, won by Declarer’s Ace.
So much for 12 tricks. Now, what is the best way to make 11 tricks? Here are the cards that Declarer sees before her: Dummy ♠ ♥ KT6 ♦ KJ6 ♣ J
Declarer ♠ KT ♥ A5 ♦ ♣ K93 If trumps were originally 3-2, Declarer can make the rest of the tricks by playing a low Heart to the King, ruffing a Diamond with the Ace, ruffing a Spade, and drawing the last trump. But, if trumps are 4-1, this line will promote a trump for the defense. A better line is to give up on the Diamond ruff, and hope that the trick will come back in another way … perhaps the Q♠ or the Q♦ will come down tripleton, and failing that there are excellent squeeze chances. So, we cash the A♥ (West showing out), then the K♠ first (quite safe, we know that East cannot ruff this as she surely has the Q♠ from the play at Trick Two), and play the remaining trumps, squeezing West in the minors along the way. Now, if the Diamond King does not drop the unprotected Queen, the Clubs will be good.
Of course, the squeeze only worked because West started with 4 Diamonds and 5 Clubs, and it might seem fanciful to rely on that in preference to hoping for a 3-2 trump break. Not really, there was always the chance of one of a tripleton Q♦ or Q♠, and when that failed, a squeeze of some sort was a strong probability. For example, let’s change things so that both defenders have the third round of Clubs protected. To do this, we’ll trade one of East’s Diamonds for one of West’s Clubs. Here’s the position with one round of Hearts left: Dummy ♠ ♥ T ♦ KJ ♣ J West East ♠ ♠ Q ♥ ♥ 9 ♦ Q9 ♦ ♣ Q6 ♣ T7 Declarer ♠ T ♥ ♦ ♣ K93 When the last trump is played, West must keep his Diamonds and surrender the Club guard. Now, when the K♦ is played, East is squeezed in the black suits. It’s another one of those Non-Simultaneous Double Squeezes (see also March 21st, 2007, Board 5).
Yes, in case you hadn’t guessed, we really like the stated line. If gives up on 3-2 trumps (68%) and in return gets: - tripleton Q♠ - or, tripleton Q♦ - or, assuming that East has the Q♠, a guaranteed squeeze whenever West has the Q♦ (highly likely as West led the unsupported A♠ instead of a Diamond lead through Dummy’s strength)
Yes, a rather raunchy 2♥ opening from South, definitely scraping the bottom of the barrel, but it presents problems to E-W. First, West has to overcall at the 3-level on a crummy 6-card suit of his own, then East must make a decision of his own. We think that 3NT is the practical bid with the East hand though this is far from ideal. He would no doubt prefer a second Heart stop, and he no doubt had the sneaking suspicion that slam was possible.
Slam in Clubs is indeed possible, though it’s not a wonderful contract. First of all there is the danger of two trump losers. When that hurdle is cleared, there is a Heart finesse to be taken (well, at least that one is likely to work. And then there is the matter of the 4th round of Diamonds. All will be well for Declarer if the suit is 3-3, and Declarer can give himself an extra chance … after drawing trumps and finessing the Heart he cashes his Hearts, then runs the rest of the trump suit, and if one defender (presumably North) started with the A♠ and 4+ Diamonds she will be squeezed.
How does 3NT fare? Surely South will not waste time leading her so-called suit, and a Spade lead stands out on the featured auction. North should duck this, as should East. Now, on the second round of Spades, one of three things might happen: - North overtakes, and continues Spades. Declarer crosses to Dummy with a Diamond, and ducks a Club into the South hand. This “avoidance play” sets up the Clubs whilst keeping North out of the lead. That’s 10 tricks. - North ducks, and so does Declarer. Now, South is obliged to shift, and Declarer uses the same Club avoidance play to secure 10 tricks. - North ducks, but Declarer wins (a risky play, Spades might be 5-3). This time the avoidance play is good for 11 tricks.
West’s decision to open that hand 1♠ is OK with us, but no doubt many will find it a bit rich. Anyway, we have to say that the rest of their auction is rather fine, and they did well to get to the best spot of 4♠. East’s 3♣ was forcing, then West showed 5-5 in the majors. East could have tried 3NT here but that did not look appealing, there were clearly a lot of Diamonds out and no guarantee that the Clubs would run without losing one first. So, East suggested a 5-2 Spade, and West, with no Diamond stop, had no option but to bid 4♠.
A delicate auction to the best spot, at least if you are looking at just the E-W hands. But North was looking at another hand altogether, one containing no fewer than 6 Spades, and a couple of Aces for good measure. She could not resist making that ill-advised Double, giving East a chance to run to the hoped for safety of 4NT. Against 4NT, South leads a Diamond, and now Declarer must stake everything on North having singleton or doubleton King. When that works, it’s 10 tricks and some egg on North’s face.
We wonder how many pairs got to the best but unlucky spot of 4♠, and played it there undoubled for down one. All we can say to those pairs is “Well bid, and rotten luck!”. And those who wound up in the inferior 3NT are no doubt saying “It’s better to be lucky than good!”
East’s 2♣ bid was Drury, a passed-hand device that shows Spade support and some values. This is enough for West to jump to game, and the fate of the 4♠ contract rests with North’s opening lead. Nothing especially appeals, and North might well stumble onto the winning J♥ start. Bull’s-eye! North wins the first round of trumps, tries another Heart and the ruff beats the contract.
South’s 2♣ was DONT, showing Clubs and another suit. West’s Double was Stayman, and he was obviously planning to pass whatever Opener responded.
Against 2♥, South cashes the AK♣, and then does best to shift to a red suit. Declarer cashes two high Hearts, then the top Diamonds, and throws North in with a Heart. Now, whatever North does, Declarer is able to hold his Spade losers to just one: - If North exits a Club, Declarer pitches a Spade from his hand and ruffs on the board. Then the 13th Diamond is cashed, pitching a second Spade. - If North exits a Spade, Declarer must guess to play low from his hand, forcing the Ace. Either way, it’s 9 tricks for Declarer.
There’s not much to the play of this one. Provided that the defense leads a Diamond on the go, or else shifts to a Diamond when in with the K♥, it will be 8 tricks for Declarer.
Note For DONT Aficionados Many players, especially those who use DONT, hate to pass out 1NT, and no doubt they would balance with 2♦ (Diamonds and a major) holding the South hand. In fact, we embarked a few weeks ago on a study to test the effectiveness of these tactics, and the robotic rules of engagement are as follows: In Direct Seat: Use DONT when 4-4 with10+ HCP’s when not vulnerable Use DONT when 4-4 with 12+ HCP’s when vulnerable In Balancing Seat: Use DONT with any 4-4 hand The Opening Side: The 1NT Opener doubles with two likely trump tricks His Partner doubles with 8+ HCP’s and 2+ trumps or with 6+ HCP’s and 3 trumps According to these rules, South chirps in with 2♦, neither East nor West can double, and 2♦ escapes for a rather fortunate undoubled down one. So it’s -100 for the Robots, beating all those solid citizens who defended 1NT making 8 tricks. This brings the running score to: DONT Robots 2 Solid Citizens 2
North broke at least three “rules” with her 2♥ opening: - She has only 5 Hearts - She has too many HCP’s (at least if the range is 5-10) - She made a “flaky” preempt in second seat (the worst position for such self-indulgence) Nonetheless we quite like the bid! The vulnerability is perfect for preempting, that Heart suit needs to be bid, and though North has 11 HCP’s it doesn’t look or feel like 11, does it? After 2♥, East made the practical bid of 4♠, risking a missed slam in favor of simplicity. An alternative approach would be to cue-bid 3♥ and then bid 4♠, showing a stronger hand than the direct 4♠.
The 2♥ bid didn’t slow down E-W in the auction, but it is likely to pay dividends in the play. South leads the Q♥, overtaken by North, and a Heart is continued. At this point, Declarer is cold for 11 tricks, he just ruffs low, cashes A♦, loses a Diamond, and later scores a Diamond ruff on the board. But Declarer won’t see things like that. He’ll expect South to have started with just one Heart and will be afraid that, if he ruffs low, there will be an overruff, followed by a trump switch, holding him to 9 tricks. Consequently, he will ruff high to make sure of his Diamond ruff on the board, thereby promoting a trump trick for the defense. Making just 10 tricks.
Against 3NT, South will probably be persuaded by the auction to lead a low Diamond. The Diamond Nine will lose to the Ten, and a Diamond returned to South’s Queen and Dummy’s Ace. Declarer has 8 top tricks, and the 9th must come from Spades or Hearts. It cannot help to try the AK♠ first, and when the Jack is played by North, it’s safe to lead another Spade towards Dummy’s Ten. Even if North has made a tricky false-card Declarer still gets the chance to try the Heart finesse. As it is, it’s 9 tricks.
A rather tame effort by N-S, or perhaps we should say a complete lack of effort. If E-W do play in 1NT, they’ll make 7 or 8 tricks. The defense gets 4 Spades and a Diamond for sure, but they’ll need to find a timely Club shift in order to get their trick in that suit before Declarer gets his Diamonds going.
Back to the bidding. It seems that South should have done something, but what? She cannot double 1♦ with that doubleton Heart. She might conceivably have doubled in the balancing seat, planning to pull 2♥ to 2♠, if necessary. But surely the best way into the auction is an immediate 1♠ overcall on that chunky 4-card suit, although the bid is not without its dangers. If South does overcall 1♠, North, with the expectation of a 9-card fit, will feel entitled to compete to the 3-level. 3♠ down one is still a good board, unless E-W are enterprising enough to double, in which case it is a zero for N-S.
It’s a friendly hand for the 4♠ Declarers, making 11 tricks when the Club loser goes on a Diamond. Declarer ends up losing a Diamond, and just one Heart when the honors are split. The only opening lead which is in the slightest bit bothersome is a Club. Now, correct play is to knock out the A♦ immediately, before tackling trumps, to make sure that the Club pitch is established in time. On the actual layout, Declarer can get away with the inferior play of an immediate trump finesse, but she would regret that choice if the finesse lost and another Club came back. So, it’s 11 tricks for everybody, even those who misplayed the hand!
One can hardly fault North for going to game with his 8-card suit, but she gets a pretty miserable Dummy, with that trump void and useless K♦. Two Aces have to be lost, so the contract depends on losing just one trump. This would require the doubleton King or doubleton JT in one hand or the other, and when neither transpires it’s down one.
False Card Note Picture yourself on defense, holding JTx of Hearts. Declarer lays down the A♥, and it is necessary to play the Jack or the Ten! This is a play which cannot cost the defense a trick, and one which offers Declarer a losing option. If, instead, you had played low in this situation, Declarer would have had no choice but to make the winning play of a low Heart on the second round felling the doubleton King. But by playing an honor you give him a losing option, namely to lead the Queen on the second round, playing for JT doubleton.
Yes, a good balancing Double by West, he of the 6 working HCP’s (the K♥ is a highly dubious value). But, being non-vulnerable, he declined to sell out at the 2-level and was rewarded when East was able to buy the contract in 2♠. In 2♠ Declarer will make 7 or 8 tricks, it could go either way, there are altogether too many lines to analyze completely. But whether Declarer makes or goes down he should have a decent board, because N-S can make no fewer than 10 tricks in Hearts.
Yes, indeed, did N-S drop the ball when they failed to compete to 3♥? We don’t think so. If you look at just the N-S hands, it’s far from obvious that you would want to go to the 3-level. There looks like a certain loser in each suit, with the possibility of a second loser in Spades and a second in Hearts (perhaps even a third). Down one in 3♥ looks quite likely, maybe even down two or three. Vulnerable no less!
But, the play in 3♥ works out beautifully for Declarer. She’ll win the opening Club lead on the board, finesse the Q♥ successfully, cash the A♥, and lose a Heart. The defense plays Clubs, and, after Declarer gets back in, she lays down the A♦, dropping the K♦! Now it’s over to the board on a Diamond to lead a Spade. No chance of a wrong guess there, both Spades are on-side.
This hand is not a good commercial for the Law of Total Tricks. Both sides have an 8-card fit, and yet E-W can make 8 (double dummy) tricks, and N-S can make 10 tricks. The Law is out by two tricks, perhaps that thought will provide solace to N-S when they realize that they did not bid enough.
South’s rebid was a Support Redouble, showing 3-card Spade support for Partner’s Spades, and the normal 2♠ contract was reached. We’d expect East to lead a Diamond (though a Heart is also reasonable), won by Dummy’s Ace. Now, when East gets in with the A♠ he should cash the Q♦ (not lead a low Diamond) and shift to a low Heart, putting Declarer to the guess before the Clubs are established. After guessing (or misguessing) the Hearts, Declarer will have to tackle Clubs at some point, and may well reason that East has to have the K♣ for his Takeout Double … this might persuade him to drop the stiff K♣. So, depending on Declarer’s guessing skills, she’ll make 8 or 9 or 10 tricks.
An awkward auction to say the least! Let’s look at some of those bids: - South’s 1NT: We can assume that N-S are playing Drury, and this hand shows the downside of that convention. Without Drury, South has an easy and descriptive 2♣ bid, but as it is he is obliged to choose a semi-forcing 1NT. - South’s 2NT: The alternative is 3♥, but the hand looks quite No Trumpish with all those Queens, so it’s hard to fault 2NT. - North’s 3♦: This one was the invention of Professor Oddbid, and though it looks weird it does have its merits, it gives Partner one more chance to show doubleton Heart support. North is supposed to be 6-4 (and weak) for this sequence, but she’ll usually get away with it. The worst case is if South is 3-1-3-6 which would lead to an inelegant 3♦ contract, but other than that she’ll probably survive this imaginative bid. - South’s 4♥: Having almost raised Hearts earlier, and with some useful cards in Diamonds, South can hardly do less.
Perhaps the featured auction is entirely convincing, and surely a number of pairs will play in 2NT or 3NT. If they bid the game, the good news is that 3NT makes at least 9 tricks on all but the most abject defense. And, if North declares a Heart contract, she’ll lose just two Aces.
N-S have an excellent Diamond slam on these cards but a tough one to reach. We suppose that the culprit is South, her 3NT may seem somewhat precipitous with such a good hand. Then again, there does not seem to be a good alternative. She could cue-bid 2♠, but that won’t help much, it’s not obvious what should happen after North rebids 3♣. So, we’d rate South’s 3NT as practical but not the winner on the actual hand.
If N-S get to 6♦, from whichever side of the table, they’ll get a Spade lead, won by South’s Ace. There is no convenient and safe way to get to the North hand for the Diamond finesse (which looks like it will fail, anyway), so the AK♦ are cashed and the Clubs are run. West can take the Q♦ at his leisure but it’s 12 easy tricks for Declarer.
Another possible slam is 6♣, and the play in this contract severely challenging! Please see Play Problem # 149.
How does 3NT fare? West leads the K♠, and Declarer ducks, leaving West with no good alternatives. Whatever he does will result in at least 11 tricks for Declarer. - Not a Diamond trick, that will be 12 tricks, and not a Heart, that hands Declarer her 11th trick (no squeeze for 12, though) - Not a low Spade, that gives Declarer an immediate 11th trick, with a squeeze for 12 (it will be a Criss-Cross squeeze in the red suits, and will require Declarer to read the end-position correctly) - Not a high Spade, that gives Declarer 3 Spade tricks and 11 altogether (third Diamond trick no longer needed). - That leaves a safe Club exit, which is no help either, giving Declarer the timing to get her 11th trick from Diamonds.
East reasonably decided no to look for the 5-3 Spade fit and went straight to 3NT. North will probably lead a Club, unappealing though the Jxxx lead is, and Declarer plays low from Dummy. South must insert the Eight, otherwise Declarer will come to 12 tricks with the aid of two black suit finesses. Next comes the Q♠ covered by the King, and Declarer might cunningly call for a low card from Dummy. If this happens, and if North makes the mistake of shifting to a Diamond it will be 12 tricks for Declarer instead of the 11 which will be made at most of the tables.
The two obvious choices with the South hand, after that 2♦ preempt, are 2♠ and Double. Either could work, we prefer 2♠, but not by very much. Actually, there is a third choice that we prefer, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
In 2♠, the play will be simple enough, with 5 obvious losers. Declarer will either guess the Hearts based on the bidding, or else, more likely, West will be end-played into making the guess unnecessary.
East’s 2♠ was Michaels, showing Hearts and a minor. South’s sequence showed a strong hand and likely 6-5 distribution, and North figured that playing in the 6-2 Spade fit was a better bet than the 5-4 Diamonds.
East does well to lay down the A♥ before the rats get at it. The second round of Hearts is ruffed by Declarer, who must now decide how to tackle the trump suit. The auction was most informative and tells Declarer that East will not have Qxxx of trumps. So, she’ll avoid the mistake of crossing to the A♣ and running the J♠ (setting up West’s Nine). Instead, she’ll cash the A♠, and when the Q♠ turns out to be singleton she’ll lose just a Diamond and a Heart, for 11 tricks and +450.
East and West both had close decisions on this auction. East might have tried a game-forcing 2♣ bid (if those were his methods), and West might have accepted the 2NT invitation (11-12 HCP’s) on the basis of those Tens and that 5-card suit. Nonetheless, we agree with both decisions, which makes us both right and wrong. Right because 3NT is not a good contract, requiring a 4-4 Spade break and the Heart finesse. And wrong because both of these things happen and 3NT turns out to make 9 tricks. Oh, well!
Do you open the North hand 1♥ or 2♥? This is very much a matter of personal preference, for some opinions please see the Bidding Quiz.
4♠ is the likely final contract and South no doubt leads a Heart, won on the board. Here is a not completely far-fetched line of play for 12 tricks: Opening Heart lead, won on the board Heart ruffed high Cross to the K♠ Heart ruffed high Cross to the 9♠ Low Diamond to the Queen Diamond ducked to North’s Ace Now, North is end-played! She must concede a ruff and sluff, or else she must give up a Club trick, and either will hand Declarer his 12th trick. Yes, North was asleep at the switch. When the low Diamond was led from the board she had to rise majestically with the Ace and exit a Diamond. This gives Declarer three Diamond tricks, but that is not much help, the defense will still get its 2 tricks in the fullness of time.
Drury is one of our favorite conventions, and the question here is whether it applies in competition. Without North’s Takeout Double, a 2♣ bid by East, at least in the E-W methods, would have been artificial, showing Spade support and some values. The question is “Does Drury still apply when they Double?” We say “Yes”, that’s our preferred choice, are you and your Partner on the same page, one way or the other?
E-W pairs who missed this making 4♠ game should not feel too bad, it really is not much of a contract. It needs two slices of luck … 2-2 Spades … and both high Hearts in the same hand, allowing a Heart trick to be developed. Sure, there are one or two other chances but it remains less than a 50% proposition.
West’s hand looks more like an overcall than it does a preempt, and E-W cruise to the fine contract of 4♥. Making 10 tricks assuming that N-S cash out.
We wouldn’t fault the E-W auction, even though the final contract was somewhat dicey. Both partners were minimum for their actions, but some hands it just doesn’t pay to over-analyze. Down one on a Diamond lead!
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