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Hand Analyses 11th April, 2007
Do you think that South is too strong for that 1NT rebid? We don’t, her hand has some defects, please see the Bidding Quiz. However, whether South rebids 1NT or 2NT she’ll surely end up as Declarer in 3NT.
Let’s say that West leads the unbid suit, which is also his longest and strongest suit. It’s hard to argue with that in the post mortem! East wins the Ace and sends back the T♣, the only way to pick up the suit quickly if Declarer started with Qxxx. Declarer’s Queen is taken by West’s King, and a third round of Clubs is played. Now Declarer can unravel her winners and scores 11 tricks.
Can West do better for the defense? Let’s go back to the opening lead. We asked Dr Goodlead what would be his choice and he came up with a humdinger! Yes, he led a Spade, saying “Leading through Dummy’s second suit is often right, this looks more dynamic than the mundane Club lead”. Dynamic, indeed! Declarer’s best guess is probably to jump up with the A♠ and hope for luck in the red suits. She will cross to the Q♦, come back to the A♥, run the Diamonds when they obligingly break 3-3, and settle for 10 tricks when the T♥ does not come down in three rounds. Nice lead, Doctor!
North just about has enough for a 3♥ limit raise, and even though South has but 12 HCP’s there are only 5 losers, and it’s a comfortable 4♥ bid. Making 10 tricks when the three side-suit Aces are lost. This one is our nomination for this week’s “Same result at every table” award.
4♥ is a low percentage contract, requiring luck in both red suits. But both work and it’s 10 tricks for Declarer.
South has three more or less comparable 4-card suits from which to choose. In this situation there is a predisposition to lead one of the major suits for the simple reason that West did not see fit to use Stayman, so at least he does not have a 4-card major. OK, the next question is “Which major?” We can see little to choose between them, let’s say that South selects a Heart. Here’s how the play might go: Heart to North’s Ten and Declarer’s King Cash A♣ Low Club to the King (he would have ducked if South had not shown out) Losing Spade finesse Spade to Dummy’s Ten Heart to the Queen and South’s Ace Diamond to Dummy’s King Dummy exits a Club, and North cashes his second Club Diamond to South’s Ace Declarer has the rest of the tricks, but it’s down one.
Declarer could have done better, he needed to keep the Club suit intact for a while, it’s his only form of communication between the two hands. If he also realizes that this hand is unlikely to make if the A♦ is with North, then at Trick Two he will lead a Diamond to Dummy’s King and try the Spade finesse. The finesse loses but Declarer now has three Spades and two tricks in each of the other suits.
Now here is an interesting auction! South’s plan is to open 2♣ and rebid 2NT showing 22-23 or 22-24, depending on her side’s methods. Are you wondering why West bothered to bid 2♠ over 2♣? It’s not as if E-W can compete successfully against that 2♣ opener, and it’s most likely that West will be on lead against the eventual E-W contract, so there’s something to be said for a Pass.
After the 2♠ overcall, what are your methods? Nowadays, many tournament players use Pass here as a way to show values … Double would show a bad hand, and a bid of a new suit or No Trump would show values and something worth saying. So, let’s say that North’s Pass shows some values but nothing particular to say. South cannot make her No Trump rebid without a Spade stopper, so she Doubles. North’s 3♦ is pretty obvious, and now South tries 3♠, obviously looking for 3NT. Is 3♠ looking for a Spade stopper? Or a half-stopper? Please see the Bidding Quiz for this one also.
Somebody was missing in action in this auction! Yes, why didn’t East bid 3♠ after Partner had bid 2♠? She has exactly the right point-count for such a bid! In this White vs Red scenario, with LHO bidding 2♣, and with RHO showing values (by her Pass), we would say that East’s zero-count represents extras for a 3♠ bid, look at that singleton Diamond for heaven’s sake!
Anyway, the bottom line is that N-S belong in 3NT, which makes 10 tricks. We’ll further say the following: - If E-W are silent throughout the auction, then 3NT is where South will play it. Now, if West makes the mistake of leading a 4th best Spade, Declarer will make 11 tricks. - If West bids 2♠ and East sleepily passes throughout, then N-S will get the chance to show off their “half-stopper” agreements … if they pass the test they will end up in the same 3NT … otherwise they will get an inferior matchpoint score in 5♦. In fact, in this case it is really inferior because 5♦ does not even make! - If West bids 2♠ and East raises to 3♠ then we really don’t see how N-S can get to 3NT, surely they’ll stumble into 5♦ down one.
Hmmm! Upon further review, perhaps that 2♠ bid is not such a bad idea after all!
The auction is straightforward enough and it’s hard to imagine West not finding an opening lead of the A♥. This highly normal but unfortunate lead gives an alert Declarer the chance to make her contract, for which please see the Play Problem.
We’ll be the first to agree that South’s 2♦ opening is not for everybody! It’s vulnerable, dead minimum in terms of HCP’s, with the highly dubious QJ doubleton of Spades to boot. But the glass half full approach to this hand is that it is 6-4 (great offense!), good trump intermediates, and zero defense (just what our preempts should be!).
Anyway, choose your own comfort level here, our personal preference is 2♦ after which West overcalls 2♥ presenting North with a choice of actions. Not a bad hand, eh? Tempted to double and make West pay for his impudence? After all you do have a 22-count with a couple of trump tricks. Not a good idea, at least not on this hand, as E-W can escape for down just one. Please see the Bidding Quiz for more on this.
If North Declares 3NT, East will lead a low Heart. If West jumps up with the A♥ at Trick One he’ll give Declarer an easy route to 10 tricks, but if he inserts the Ten then Declarer will surely end up with just 9 unless she bizarrely goes after Clubs at Trick Two without trying the Diamonds first.
South’s 2♠ bid was Fourth Suit Forcing, showing game-going values and denying four Spades, and eventually N-S get to the inevitable 3NT contract. East will lead a Spade, probably the Queen, and Declarer will duck, then win the second round on the board (keeping a Spade entry back to her hand for the Clubs). Then the Jack of Clubs is led, and East does best to duck, playing havoc with Declarer’s communications. Now another Club to the King and East’s Ace, after which another Spade is lead, won by Declarer’s King. Now the Q♣ is led and when the suit proves to be 4-2, the contract depends on a successful Heart finesse. She’ll lose the Club first, East will cash the last Spade, and shift to a Heart, and when the finesse fails a Heart will come back, setting Declarer by two tricks. It’s true that Declarer has 8 tricks at this point but they cannot be untangled because the Diamond suit is blocked.
Walsh Note Those partnerships who play Walsh-style will no doubt have this auction: West North East South Pass 1♣ Pass 1♦ Pass 1NT Pass 3NT Pass Pass Pass As usual, even though the same auction is reached, the Walsh auction is less informative than the “standard” auction. Playing Walsh, South skips the Diamond suit whenever she has a 4-card major and less than game-going values, meaning that Opener can skip his own 4-major(s) whenever Responder bids 1♦. How does this affect the actual hand? Not at all, as it happens, East will be on lead as before, he’ll still start with a Spade, and Declarer will end up the same dismal down two.
North’s nice 6-4 hand is just about worth a game try, which South is quick to accept. East leads the A♣ and K♣, and a third Club, hoping to promote a trump trick for Partner (in case he has JTx or QJ, for example), but that doesn’t work and Declarer has an easy 10 tricks.
Bizarre Overtrick It wouldn’t be a very intelligent play, but on the third round of Clubs Dummy could actually get away with ruffing with the Five. Now, with trumps 2-2, Declarer has the entries to the board to set up the Hearts and pitch away his Diamond loser. As we said, that would be a most bizarre overtrick.
After East’s balancing Double, West’s winning call is 3NT. But it’s far from obvious that West should bid 3NT, it’s something of a guess, and passing here is eminently reasonable.
Against 3NT, North might start with the A♥ and must then find a shift. If she gets ambitious and attacks Clubs it will be 11 tricks for Declarer, if she goes passive and gets out with a Spade (or even a Diamond) it will be just 10 tricks.
How does 3♥ doubled do? Very well, in fact it even makes! Declarer must lose a trump and two Spades, but the Clubs are well placed and come in for just one loser (Declarer must finesse against the Ten, of course).
Against 2♥, North leads the Club Nine, South wins the Ace and Declarer plays the Ten. Of course, from South’s point of view, Declarer’s T♣ may well be a false card, but she’ll probably shift to the A♠ anyway, and then continue a Spade. Declarer wins the second Spade, and can go one of two ways: - Either, he can hope that Hearts are 3-2, in which case he’ll draw three rounds of trumps ending on the board, planning to cash three Clubs (pitching a Spade and two Diamonds), and then hope to guess the Diamonds for 10 tricks. Alas, when South shows out on the second round of Hearts, it’s only 8 tricks. - Or, he can play safer for 9 tricks and cater for 4-1 Hearts by playing a Heart to the Queen, then cash a Club pitching a Spade, and run the J♦ around to North’s Ace. North makes Declarer ruff a Spade, but now the K♦, a Diamond ruff, and it’s a lucky 10 tricks for Declarer when the Q♦ falls.
Clearly the second line is better on the actual hand, and it’s also probably better in theory, too.
Although East has a pretty good hand he entertains no hopes for game opposite a Weak Two in Diamonds, and his 3♦ was purely a preemptive raise. By the time the bidding got back to North she no doubt had the strong suspicion that the opponents were committing larceny, but with nothing to bid she reluctantly passed.
But it turns out that this one really is E-W’s hand, they can make 3♦ easily enough, whereas the best that N-S can do 9 tricks in Clubs.
North no doubt considered bidding 3NT over 3♣, and did well to resist the temptation, perhaps she was discouraged by the appalling lack of Aces and Tens. Against 3♣, East leads the T♥ to West’s Ace. The defense has 3 Aces, of course, but the K♠ and the J♣ are both onside for Declarer. The only way that the defense can score a 4th trick is from a Diamond ruff, and it seems fairly obvious that West should shift to a Diamond at Trick Two. What will not be 100% obvious to East is whether he should win the first Diamond or the second Diamond, he must guess whether Partner started with one or two of them. He’ll probably guess wrong, reasoning that if Partner started with one Diamond he can get his ruff with no problem, but if he started with two Diamonds he also needs an early trump entry for the ruff to materialize. Anyway, it’s 9 or 10 tricks depending on East’s guessing skills.
When 1♠ was passed around to West, he certainly did not want to sell out so cheaply, but neither did he have a convenient bid. So, he wheeled out the trusty balancing Double to keep the auction alive. After that, North could have bid 2♠ to show a 6-card suit, but preferred to redouble first, showing a good hand. East bid 1NT to show the general character of his hand and South got into the act with 2♥, a tad exuberantly, perhaps, and it’s also not obvious that North should raise to 3♥ with so much wastage in the minor suits.
The final contract of 3♥ is a perilous affair and Declarer’s success requires careful timing. Please see Play Problem # 147.
Nobody would argue with a 2♥ overcall on the West hand, the featured West preempt of 3♥ was no doubt influenced (unduly or otherwise) by the favorable vulnerability. Against 4♥, North leads a Spade, and the third round of the suit promotes a trump trick for the defense. Declarer will hopefully ruff with the Nine, but will be overruffed. Now North shifts to a Diamond, and the contract depends on 3-3 Clubs. When this is the case it’s 10 tricks.
A long-winded auction, but one with some interesting points: - 2♦ was Fourth Suit Forcing. - Is 2♠ setting Spades as the trump suit, or could it merely be 3-card support and the inability to bid No Trump? Apparently, East was not sure that his 2♠ set Spades as the trump suit, so he repeated the suit with his 3♠ bid, a wise precaution! - Meanwhile, West had bid 3♣ (presumably showing 4-3-1-5 distribution), and 4♣ as a cue-bid in the hunt for a Spade slam. - 4NT was Roman Key Card, and 5 ♥ was “two without”.
After all that, East had a difficult choice between 6♠ and 6NT. There was something to be said for bidding 6NT to protect the ♦AQ, but, on the other hand, the bidding suggested that there were two Diamond ruffs available on the board and that was the thought that prevailed.
Against 6♠, North will no doubt lead the “4th suit”, won by Dummy’s A♦. Then, a winning Spade finesse, and trumps are drawn. Now Declarer is assured of 12 tricks and can bring in 13 tricks in one of these two cases: - Either, he can score 5 Club tricks - Or, he ruffs out the Club (with or without a ruffing finesse), scoring just 4 Clubs with the 13th trick coming from a successful Heart finesse. It seems preferable to take the Club finesse, one way or the other, and there are no strong indications as to which way to take it. As can be seen, the winning line is to play North for the Q♣, but it’s not obvious. 12 or 13 tricks, depending on this guess.
How does 6NT do? South does not have an attractive lead, especially as East’s decision to play in 6NT makes a Diamond lead likely to be disastrous (surely East has the ♦AQ for his bid). Her best guess is probably the T♥, won by Declarer’s Jack. Now Declarer is home if he can bring in the Clubs for no losers or if the Spade finesse works. 12 tricks and what we would guess is an average board, losing to 6♠ making seven, beating 6♠ making six.
We confess that we would rebid 1NT with the West hand in preference to 2♦, but that is not a great success on this deal. If West plays it in 1NT he’ll surely be held to 7 tricks after the obvious lead from North of the Club Ten.
If West rebids 2♦ then East will raise to 3♦ and Declarer should be able to scramble 9 tricks. There are the obvious 3 Aces to lose, but Declarer doesn’t have enough tricks to be able to take the rest, and he does best to give up a Heart and get his tricks that way.
The featured auction looks normal enough to us, but Professor Oddbid was singularly unimpressed. He preferred a 1NT bid with the North hand, planning to compete with 2♠ later in the auction. That’s a sequence that might not occur to everybody, but it does have its merits, doing justice to that No-Trumpish Heart holding and to the general strength of the hand.
How many tricks can North make in a Spade contract? Let’s say that East starts with Diamonds, Declarer ruffing the third round. The idea now should be to set up Dummy, and that means establishing the Clubs. It looks as if the K♣ is with East and the Spade length with West, so we’d try an immediate Q♣, covered by the King and the Ace. Now a finesse of the Spade Ten, cash the A♠, and lead a Club towards the board, finessing the Eight. A nice sequence of plays, and one which nets 9 tricks despite the bad trump break.
System Note You may have noticed that West failed to support Partner even though he had 3 hearts and a smattering of points. Well, we wouldn’t support either, not with that pile of junk, we would be afraid that Partner might take us seriously and compete to the 3-level. But, wouldn’t it be nice if we could raise to 2♥ saying “I have a raise to 2♥, feel free to compete to 3♥ if you must”, and if we could also have a way of bidding 2♥ which says “My hand is junk and my raise is purely obstructive!” There are such methods out there, one of which is “Transfers over One of a Major Doubled”, generally attributed to Mike Cappelletti, Sr. We won’t get into this in too much detail at this point, except to explain how the convention treats these two auctions:
West North East South West North East South 1♥ Dbl 1♥ Dbl 2♥ etc. 2♦ etc.
In the left-hand auction, West’s 2♥ is purely obstructive, something like West’s actual hand. In the right-hand auction, West’s 2♦ bid is a transfer to 2♥, showing a raise with a bit more substance.
As North, would you have responded 1♠ or 1NT with that square hand? We’d bid 1♠ without enthusiasm, but 1NT is a reasonable alternative. 1♠ turns out to be the winner though, and a Spade part-score makes 9 tricks thanks to the lucky layout of the Club suit. How does 1NT do? Not so well, as it happens, 7 tricks looks like the limit.
East’s 4♦ bid really gummed up the works for N-S, hopefully they are playing Negative Doubles at least as high as 4♦. Assuming that they are, South does indeed make a Negative Double, after which North has an obvious 4♥ bid. Now, South has a pretty good hand, and should at least give slam consideration. Should she try? And, if so, how? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
It turns out that 5♥ is plenty high enough. Well, of course it would be, the opponents do have two cashing Aces after all.
As 4-card game-going raises go, we would say that the West hand is scraping the bottom of the barrel. Not that we think that West should not try the Jacoby 2NT, but having done so he should tread most softly. East’s rebid of 3♠ showed some extras without shortness (not a good idea to show shortness or to splinter when we have a singleton Ace), and West declined to make an encouraging cue-bid, he just made the weakest bid possible by going straight to game.
Considering West’s sequence, we think that East should curb her enthusiasm. Sure West has a good hand, but she already said that with her 3♠ bid, we don’t see any reason to take another bid here. Yes, 11 tricks is the limit of the hand.
In the featured auction West’s 2♣ was game-forcing, East’s 2♦ showed 5+ Diamonds and could be made on all strengths of hand, and West’s 3♥ was a Splinter in support of Diamonds. After a couple of cue-bids, East bid what he hoped he could make, namely 6♦. For more on this auction please see the Bidding Quiz.
6♦ is a fine slam indeed, requiring no more than a modicum of luck in the trump suit. The correct way to handle that particular holding for a maximum of one loser is to lay down the Ace (catering for the off-side singleton King), cross to the board, and lead towards the Queen. This works 77% of the time, and the slam fails only when trumps are 4-0 or when South holds KJ9 or KJ7. Unfortunately, the actual layout falls into the 23% category and the slam fails. Rotten luck for the good bidders.
As South, over 1♠, would you Double or bid 2♥? There are merits to both, please see the Bidding Quiz. Our featured South took the conservative route and doubled, and then later competed to 4♦ after West’s preemptive raise to 3♠.
With the K♥ expected to be offside, 4♦ is high enough, and when trumps are 2-1 and the Heart finesse loses, 10 tricks are made.
North’s 3♠ bid was not for the purists and even though she would catch some useful cards in Dummy, she was headed for -800 or -1100 if the opponents were able to double and defend. But that was not the case and East made the practical guess of 3NT over 3♠, which West did well to pass.
West will no doubt lead the K♣ which Declarer should duck. Now, with the Diamonds behaving, it’s 11 easy tricks. That seems straightforward enough, but suppose that South makes the futile opening lead of a Spade. Declarer wins in his hand, loses to the K♦ and wins the return. Now, Dummy’s Spade and Diamond winners are cashed and South finds herself paying the price of her opening lead … she must hang onto her Hearts, so the Clubs are pitched and Dummy’s lowly Club Six will be the 12th trick for Declarer.
East’s Double was “Responsive”, in this case showing the majors and 4♠ was reached easily enough (though not so easy if the Responsive Double were unavailable).
The 4-1 trump split makes the play in 4♠ most interesting. North leads a Diamond, won by Declarer’s Ace. At this point Declarer is hoping for 11 tricks, losing just the two missing Aces, and he plays a Spade to Dummy’s Queen, which holds. When the J♠ is led, he gets the bad news of the 4-1 trump break when South shows out, and gets even more bad news when North ducks for a second time. Good defense! Now 11 tricks are an impossibility. Declarer cannot take a Diamond ruff and also draw trumps without losing control, so the best he can do after the second trump duck is to cash his Clubs and let North take his trump tricks whenever he wishes. Well done by North, if she wins the first or second round of trumps Declarer has an easy route to 11 tricks.
An opening Heart lead from North will beat Declarer with normal play, but as that is a double dummy lead, we’ll allow Declarer to be double dummy also. All that he has to do is assume that trumps are 4-1 and Clubs are 2-2, and he makes 10 tricks as follows: A♥ is led Heart continuation is ruffed Cross to Dummy with a Club Ruff a heart Cross to Dummy with a Club Ruff a Heart high (it doesn’t help North to overruff) Spade to North’s Ace Diamond to Declarer’s Ace A♣, ruffed by North Now, Declarer ruffs the Diamond return, draws trumps, and has a good Heart left at the end. Not a very likely line of play, but, then again, it wasn’t a very likely opening lead either.
Bidding Afterthought We don’t know about you, but in third seat, White versus Red, we rather like an opening preempt of 3♦, now there’s a bid which will make life really difficult for E-W!
Over 3♦, do you think that the East hand is worth a game try? It’s pretty marginal, especially at matchpoints, but we’ll let East be optimistic here, if only so that, for the second straight board East can use a conventional Double. This one is a Maximal Double and is used to invite game, allowing 3♥ directly to be used as a purely competitive bid (typically an extra trump but not extra values). For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz. Faced with a game invitation, West has a marginal hand of his own but not one that is worth going to game in our view.
It turns out that 4♥ is not such a great contract, requiring the onside K♥ and some luck (or good guessing) in Spades. But everything is friendly and it’s 10 tricks.
Another crummy preempt by South, but this one probably won’t work so well, at least if West makes that light but perfectly shaped Double. North will raise to 4♥, expecting to make most of the time, and East gets to bid “Double” for the third straight board. But this one is a plain old Penalty Double, at least it is if E-W play their Responsive Doubles up to 4♦ (the common treatment).
4♥ doubled is down two tricks, and this would be a good result for N-S if most of the E-W field were making 3NT. But we somehow doubt that, they just don’t have the values, we suspect that -300 will not get N-S very many matchpoints at all.
We don’t see any compelling reason for South to flaunt her 5-card Diamond suit, not when the suit is so poor, and when there are two major suit Kings to protect from the opening lead. Furthermore, 1NT may serve to preempt the opponents. What does North’s 2NT show? Not enough for game, so let’s say less than 19 HCP’s. Too good for an opening 1NT bid, so that suggests 18 or a really good 17.
Let’s say that West leads a Diamond against 3NT. Declarer does best to hop up with the King, cross to hand with a Heart and run the J♣ around to East’s King. Now, if East optimistically shifts to a Spade, Declarer will score up 2 Spades, 4 Hearts, a Diamond and 3 Clubs for a total of 10 tricks. In order to hold Declarer to just 9 tricks, East must unblock the Q♦ when in with the K♣, that way the defense gets its 4 minor suit tricks in time.
Opposite West’s 4th seat opening, East’s 2♣ was Drury, showing Heart support and some values. West’s 2♦ bid claimed that his opening bid was sound, and East had nothing more to say, so bid 2♥. Good stop! It turns out that the cards are rather poorly placed for E-W … there’s an unexpected Heart loser, and the A♦ is off-side, and there is a Club guess to be made. In fact, if North finds a Spade opening lead, Declarer will need that Club guess just to make 8 tricks.
It turns out that N-S can make 10 tricks in Diamonds and yet they never got into the auction. It’s up to South to find a way into the auction, she’s the one with the distribution, and perhaps over 2♣ she could have bid 2NT, surely showing the minors in this auction. But that was somewhat dangerous, all the more so as N-S are vulnerable and as West is still an unlimited hand.
Who can say what might happen on this deal, the above scenario is one of many possibilities. In the featured auction, what is that 4th seat 2♦ opening bid? Obviously it should not be a weak preemptive bid, with such a hand we would just pass out the deal. A common treatment is the one used here by North, namely a top-end Weak Two bid, or perhaps something even a little stronger. After that, East has an obvious Double and South chimes in with 3♣, surely showing a 6-card Club suit. At this point in the auction nobody can no longer make anything (at least not on perfect defense), and West does best to pass. North will go back to her Diamonds, of course, and that is where she will play it.
3♦ is not a success, unless the defense errs grievously. East will lead the K♥, and should shift smartly to a low trump, ducked by West. Why the duck? West cannot be sure that Declarer does not have the A♣, it would be most unfortunate if Declarer won the second round of trumps and claimed 11 minor suit winners, pitching major suit losers on the run of the Clubs. So, Declarer wins the first Diamond and knocks out the A♣, but the defense is in control, drawing Dummy’s other trump and cashing its remaining three Heart winners. Down two.
It turns out that the 6-1 Club fit plays better, and when West makes the natural enough Spade lead, it even makes. In fact, the only way to beat 3♣ is an upper-cut. Let’s say that West somehow stumbles upon the lead of the A♥, followed by a Heart to East’s hand. Now, East must lead a Diamond, ducked by West. Then, a Club to the King, and the Q♣ to East’s Ace. Next is a Diamond to West’s Ace and a Diamond back … East ruffs with his Ten, hitting Declarer with an upper-cut that establishes West’s Nine. Very nice defense!
After South’s 1NT opening, North is close to inviting and surely would if she had been playing in an IMP game. The Pass worked out well, because inviting to 2NT will get N-S to a hopeless 3NT, no doubt down one trick. Things got even better when a non-vulnerable East just could not resist jumping into the auction with a Double, which, as E-W were playing DONT, showed an unspecified one-suiter. South’s Redouble said “I have a good hand” and encourage punitive action from North, and, of course, North stepped up to the plate, even though she had only three small Hearts.
Against 2♥ doubled, a trump lead seems called for in case Dummy has some potential ruffs, and this lead ensures a two trick set and a top board for N-S.
West’s second bid was a Support Redouble, showing 3-card Spade support, and East’s 3♠ bid invited game. 4♠ gives us an interesting Play Problem with which to finish off the set.
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