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Hand Analyses 28th March, 2007
South took advantage of her third seat status to introduce a good 4-card major and then passed North’s “semi-forcing” 1NT. Yes, North might quite reasonably have bid 2♥ also, which South should pass.
Against North’s 1NT, let’s suppose that East leads a Diamond, to West’s Queen and Declarer’s Ace. Declarer now loses a Heart to West’s Queen or East’s Jack, and the defense must give up on Diamonds and attack Spades … of course, if it is East that wins the Heart then he must lay down the Q♠. That will be 7 tricks for Declarer, but 8 if the defense persists with Diamonds.
How about 2♥, also played by North? On the surface it looks as if Declarer must lose two Hearts, one Diamond (the other goes on a Spade), and a Club (Declarer can finesse the Nine, and later take a ruffing finesse against the King). That would be just 4 losers, but Declarer cannot quite hold everything together for 9 tricks, she lacks communications back to her hand to lead Clubs twice. So, 8 tricks it is.
It’s easy to see most N-S pairs getting to game, but the hands fit poorly, and Declarer seems destined to lose three Aces and a Heart. But sometimes the defense comes to the rescue in these hopeless contracts and that could happen here. It would not be unreasonable for South to lead a Diamond here, her possession of the Ace of trumps improves her chances of getting a ruff. Now North might make the mistake of ducking or else winning and returning a Diamond, and in either case it will be 10 tricks. If North is to save the day for the defense she must hop up with the A♦ and shift to a Heart.
North took the simple road to 3NT, transferring to Spades and rebidding 3NT. She saw no point in introducing the Club suit, judging slam to be unlikely and not wanting to help the opponents find the right opening lead. Against 3NT, it seems normal enough for East to lead a low Heart … that will be 12 tricks for Declarer. The only way to hold Declarer to 11 tricks is the opening lead of the K♦, somewhat unlikely.
We are conditioned to play in the major suit whenever we have a 4-4 fit, but here E-W managed to hit the jackpot in 3NT. West offered a choice of contract, and East guessed to leave it in 3NT. Not that either contract is a great bargain, we hasten to add.
The majority of pairs will no doubt play in 4♥ from the West side. Of course, North can beat this contract by giving Partner two Spade ruffs on the go, but that’s unlikely to happen in real life. North will no doubt start with a low Diamond, raising Declarer’s hopes that the Diamond honors are split and that the opening lead has blown a trick for the defense. The first order of business is to guess the trump suit. Any clues? Nothing really substantial, other than the small clue that North did not lead a trump and therefore is more likely to hold the Queen in that suit. It’s not much to go on, but let’s say that Declarer gets the trump suit right, drawing three rounds ending on the board. Now, a Spade to the King and North’s Ace, then North leads a Diamond which Declarer unsuccessfully finesses. Declarer is doomed, and will end up down one.
The few pairs that get to 3NT will likely have more luck. North leads the Spade Four and the Rule of Eleven tells Declarer that South has just one Spade higher than that Four. Hoping that the higher card is anything but the Nine, Declarer plays low from the board and wins with the Eight. As in the 4♥ contract, Declarer will probably get the Heart guess right, this time because, if the finesse is to be lost, it would be safer to lose it to the South hand from where a Club shift would be less dangerous. Having ensured 4 Heart tricks, Declarer is up to 7 altogether … another trick is available in each of the black suits, and the safe way of establishing the Spade trick first. Making 9 tricks and a top board!
East’s 2♠ bid was “neutral”, showing the inability to make another descriptive bid, and not necessarily showing a sixth Spade.
Against 3NT, the lead which gives Declarer the most trouble is a highly unlikely Spade, but the unfortunate lead of the unbid suit seems more likely. The J♥ lead gives Declarer a third Heart winner, taking him up to 9 tricks in all, and now it all depends on the play of the Diamond suit … if Declarer can bring in that suit for one loser he’ll score a whopping twelve tricks, otherwise the defense will shift to Spades and hold him to 9 tricks.
The winning play in the Diamond suit is to lay down the Ace and lead towards the Queen, a line of play which has a 37% chance of success. Unfortunately for those with an encyclopedic knowledge of card combinations, there is a theoretically better line available, and that is to lead towards the Queen on the first round of the suit, planning to finesse the Seven on the second round if South wins the King and if the Jack or Ten has appeared from North. This line has a 39% success rate, but is no success at all on the actual layout.
West’s 2♣ was New Minor Forcing, investigating a 5-3 Spade fit, and eventually 3NT was reached. South will likely lead a Club on this auction, won by North’s Queen. Presumably South will have led a “top of nothing” Club, marking Declarer with the Jack, and that will make it easy for North to find the deadly Heart shift. Declarer should jump up with the A♥ (he doesn’t want South to win and shift back to Clubs), and when he has to lose a Diamond he’ll be down one.
Declarer does better playing in Diamonds, of course, making 12 tricks despite the off-side K♦, but 5♦ is a tough contract to reach.
A Tragic Lead Director The moral of the following story is “Beware of low-level lead-directing Doubles”, here’s what might happen. Suppose that North throws in a Double of 2♣, and E-W (somewhat improbably, perhaps) decide to tough it out in 2♣ redoubled. No doubt this decision will have been based on their good controls, their ruffing values, and an eagerness to get their names into the newspapers. North leads a Heart won by Dummy’s Ace … now ruff a Heart, cross to the A♦, ruff a Heart, cross to the A♠, ruff another Heart, cash K♠ and Q♠. Now North is down to 5 trumps and nothing else, with the KQ976 sitting in front of the J3. Declarer leads another Spade, and Dummy’s Jack scores a trick en passant. That’s 9 tricks and +1160 for E-W!
South elected to treat her hand as balanced and 22-24 HCP’s, quite reasonable in our view, but not the only way to handle this collection (please see the Bidding Quiz). Whatever the route, the final destination will be 4♠ which, as the cards lie, is pretty much Declarer-proof for 12 tricks. However, there’s a right way to play this hand … West leads a Club, North plays A♠ and a Spade to West’s King, the Club return is ruffed by Declarer, then a Spade to Dummy’s Queen. Now Declarer must run the J♦ and not the J♥. If she runs the J♥ and it loses to West’s King, a Heart will come back, after which Declarer’s only way to take the Diamond finesse is to cross to the board with a trump (requiring an earlier unblock of the Spade Nine), using up her last two trumps and risking the contract if this finesse also loses. But a losing Diamond finesse is less of a problem, as a Diamond ruff provides an entry to the board if the finesse loses. However, as we said, it’s Declarer-proof when both red suit finesses work.
With a quite pitiful hand, East reasonably decided to try for a major suit fit. His plan, if West were to rebid 2♦, was to bid 2♥, which in the E-W methods was Garbage Stayman, trying to get out in 2♥ or 2♠.
N-S can make +110 or +120 their way, so the objective for West in 2♥ will to be somehow scrape up 6 tricks for a decent matchpoint result. It will be touch and go: T♣ lead won by Declarer’s Ace A Club to Dummy’s Eight and South’s King Q♥ (good shift!) and the defense draws three rounds of trumps Spade to the Ten and Declarer’s King K♦ losing to South’s Ace Spade to the Ace Spade to the Queen Club ruffed by Declarer Q♦ is cashed, and now the board has the last trump and a good Spade. Phew! Down only two and a nice Houdini act by Declarer.
South felt that her hand was worth a slam try, she was hoping for both red Kings and some way of avoiding a Club loser (Q♣ or Q♦ or doubleton Club). Anyway, that was not to be and South has to settle for 11 tricks if West finds the likely Diamond lead.
Anyone for Michaels with the West hand? Not E-W apparently, they were no doubt playing the style whereby a Michaels bid is either weak or strong, but not in the middle, so with 13 HCP’s West preferred a 2♥ overcall. East preempted to 4♥, of course, but South was not about to let her 7-card Spade be shut out.
In 4♠, it’s normal enough for West to lead the A♣, K♣ and a third Club for Partner to ruff, he won’t realize that the ruff is at the expense of a natural trump trick. Now a Diamond goes on Dummy’s 4th Club, and it will be 10 tricks.
West would have done well to push on to 5♥, but that was far from clear, he had enough defense to have hopes of beating 4♠. In 5♥ doubled, North cashes the A♠, and looking at all 4 hands we can see that a Diamond shift and a Spade return promotes a trump for the defense and beats the contract two tricks. But how does North know to shift to a Diamond rather than a Club? Well, the bidding marks South with 6 or 7 Spades, so there is not much point in South encouraging a continuation of the suit, if North has one left it will get ruffed by Declarer. So, there is an argument that this should be a suit preference situation, with a high Spade suggesting a Diamond shift and a low Spade suggesting a Club shift. Good carding if you and your Partner are on the same wavelength, you’ll get your trump promotion.
Protocol Department Put yourself in the West chair. You’re in 5♥ doubled, and LHO leads the A♠. Nothing to think about on this trick, is there? Do you call for a low Spade without pause for thought? Hopefully not, here’s two good reasons to take at least 10 or 15 seconds before calling for Dummy’s card: - As a general rule, Declarer should avoid a hasty play at Trick One that’s been the graveyard of many a cold contract … Trick One is the time to plan the play, not Trick Six or Seven when it’s too late. - There’s also a courtesy issue. Suppose that, on the opening lead of the A♠, Declarer immediately calls for a low Spade from the board, and South deliberates for about 15 seconds before playing the thoughtful Spade Eight. Now, Declarer might feel that the Diamond shift is tainted by a suggestive hesitation. Does he have a cause for complaint? No, it’s Declarer’s fault, of course. He should have given South a fair chance at playing her suit preference card in tempo. If, having been afforded that courtesy, South still takes time before knowingly playing the Eight, then perhaps Declarer does have cause for complaint when the right shift is found.
North might well have bid 2♥ or even 3♥, depending upon her personality, but either way there will be a Negative Double and a prompt arrival at 4♠, played by West. The defense will score the A♥, K♥, and a Heart ruff, and sooner or later the A♦, and that will be down one. A flat board?
Good aggressive bidding by E-W! It’s hard to find fault with the N-S bidding, they just sat down against the wrong opponents. West’s Double of 2♣ might look like a shot in the dark but, as a matter of fact, he had a wealth of information to guide him to the right (doubling) decision. In fact, this one is so interesting that we are presenting it as a Play Problem with a twist. The reader will be put in the West seat, shown only his own cards and the bidding and be asked to deduce the distribution of all four hands! Yes, we mean before Dummy even goes down! Can that really be done? Yes, we do believe that it can.
What happens to 2♣ doubled? East leads a trump, and Declarer can score no more that 4 trumps in her hand, just one Heart ruff on the board, and the A♥. It’s down two for -500 and a triumph for the aggressive E-W matchpoint tactics.
North’s 4♣ bid was a raise to 4♠ but showing Club shortness along the way, a Splinter in other words. South had a moderate hand with almost all her high card values opposite that shortness, so she had an easy sign-off in 4♠.
On this auction West may well lay down the A♦ for want of better. After the defense cashes two Diamonds and exits a Diamond, Declarer draws trumps in three rounds and must guess how to play the trumps. She’ll try the A♥ and K♥, and the entry situation will dictate that she plays for the ruffing finesse (if she plays for 3-3 and East turns out to have started with Qxxx she will be down). Unlucky, that will be just 10 tricks.
An alternative opening lead for West would be a trump. Now, without the Diamond trick having been established, it’s unlikely that Declarer can come to 11 tricks by ruffing out the Hearts. So, she draws trumps ending on the board, finesses against the Q♥ and runs the Hearts, pitching Dummy’s 3 Diamonds. Declarer can try for another trick with the Club finesse, and when that loses it will be just 11 tricks, but still good enough for an above average board.
A sensible Pass by West, as East needs quite the magic hand to make game. As usual, Partner’s hand is not even close to being magic, and 2♠ just limps home, getting any higher would result in a minus score.
West might well have gone to game with that hand, it’s a close decision, perhaps more of a guess really, as so much depends on the amount of wastage East that has opposite that singleton Spade.
Against 3♥, South leads a Club, and when the Dummy goes down it’s clear that even 3♥ is quite high enough. Dummy’s Ace wins the first trick and Declarer’s first order of business is to lead a Spade, hoping that the K♠ will provide a pitch for one of his minor suit losers. North jumps up with the A♠ and continues Clubs. Now Declarer successfully finesses the Q♥, cashes the A♥ and K♠ (pitching a Club), and ruffs a Spade. How should Declarer tackle the Diamonds? At least one trick must be lost in the suit, and the best way to avoid a second loser is to finesse the Nine on the first round, protecting against JTx in the North hand … on this occasion the Nine loses to the Ten but the King is picked up on the second round. When the dust has cleared, Declarer will have lost one Spade, two trumps and a Diamond. Plus 140.
North preferred to double than to overcall 1NT, we’d consider the two choices equally unappealing but certainly better than passing. After South’s 2♠ bid, North has no reason to bid again … yes, it’s 15 HCP’s, but only 3 Spades, square distribution, and no fillers. It turns out that the layout is as friendly as can be. Spades are 3-3, and the J♠ and Q♥ are both on side, and all that good fortune adds up to 10 tricks for Declarer.
What happens if North chooses to overcall 1NT instead of doubling? South will take her side to 3NT (via Stayman) and the lucky layout of the Diamond suit (together with the other well-placed cards) makes 9 tricks possible.
West’s 4♦ bid was a Splinter. Do you and your Partner play that Splinters are on over a Double? And after an overcall? Not everybody does, so it’s worth making sure that you and Partner are on the same page. After 4♦, East made a slam try of 5♣, showing a control in that suit and presumably in need of Spade help. West, with Spades under control and a good hand to boot, accepted with alacrity.
Let’s say that South leads a Spade. How would you play 6♥? It’s pretty simple, really, just draw the trumps, eliminate the Spades and Diamonds, cash the A♣ and lead towards Dummy’s Clubs. Now, it really doesn’t matter if you guess to play the Ten or the Queen … if North started with KJx you are down, if she wins with a doubleton honor, she’ll be end-played. Of course, the bidding tells us that the K♣ is probably with South, but that’s no reason not to eliminate the side-suits as a precaution against a bizarre opponent.
East’s 3♥ bid was a bit of a stretch, perhaps, no doubt he wished he were playing Good-Bad 2NT (aka Lebensohl) in this situation. Please see the Bidding Quiz for more on this. As for West’s Double of 4♠, yes, a tad speculative, he obviously decided that he wasn’t going to let his non-vulnerable opponents push him around.
West has the chance to justify his Double with some well-reasoned defense. Please see Defense Problem # 140.
Against 4♠ North leads the Q♦ and Declarer must duck in Dummy. North won’t know where the Ten is located, but she will see potential Diamond pitches on the Clubs, so she’ll continue with the J♦ covered by the King and Ace. The third round of the suit is won by Declarer’s T♦. Now what? Declarer’s best chance is to set up the Clubs and, as is so often the case, it’s a good idea to do that before drawing trumps. So, Declarer cashes the A♣, crosses back to the A♥, cashes the K♣, and ruffs a Club, North pitching a Diamond. But, with Clubs 5-2, Declarer must change plan and cross-ruff the hand. Soon he will arrive at this position, with the lead in Dummy: North ♠ Q32 ♥ K ♦ ♣ Declarer Dummy ♠ AT8 ♠ K9 ♥ ♥ Q7 ♦ ♦ ♣ J ♣ South ♠ J5 ♥ 9 ♦ ♣ Q A Heart is led from Dummy, which Declarer ruffs. Now, 10 tricks are assured, but an 11th materializes unexpectedly when the defense’s “certain” trump trick mysteriously disappears. Look what happens! After the Heart is ruffed by Declarer, he leads his last Club and South, who has been stripped of all her side-suits is forced to ruff in front of Dummy. She will be overruffed, of course, and it will be 11 tricks for Declarer. It’s called the Devil’s Coup, and it’s quite a rarity.
Yes, North could have done better. While Dummy is ruffing Clubs she must pitch her Hearts (even though that sets up Dummy’s Q♥) and keep a Diamond. Now, in the end-position, Declarer cannot ruff the Heart low without being overruffed.
3♥ is a reasonable enough contract, but with the K♥ and Q♣ both offside it ends up one in the soup. How about N-S? Shouldn’t they be in 3♠? That's a dangerous-looking contract considering the vulnerability, it's easy to see how it might go down two tricks. But the Clubs and the Spades are both kind and 3♠ scores a somewhat fortunate +140.
E-W did well to stay out of game on this one. Will they even be able to make 3♠? Please see Play Problem # 141.
Over 1♥, are you a Doubler or a 2♦ Overcaller? North clearly preferred 2♦, as would we, please see the Bidding Quiz. In the featured auction, the 2♦ overcall worked out just fine when South was able to make a Responsive Double and the Spade fit was found.
4♠ is a tenuous contract, and it’s N-S’ good fortune that the hand with the A♥ is the hand on lead. Suppose that East bangs down the A♥, ruffed by Declarer. Now, a Spade to the King and West’s Ace. West continues Hearts, again ruffed by Declarer, and now 10 tricks are made. But it’s a different story with West on lead. He’ll lead the Q♥, ruffed in Dummy (North). Now, Declarer cannot retain control in the face of repeated Heart leads and 9 tricks will be the maximum.
Who knows how to bid that monstrous East hand after Partner opens 1NT? We are not sure that we do and we certainly wouldn’t argue with the featured auction. With E-W missing a maximum of 4 HCP’s, East reasoned that if Partner had the K♠ and the A♣ then at least 7NT would have a reasonable play. So he transferred to Spades, then bid 4♣ which (by partnership agreement) was Roman Key Card in Spades. When the missing Key Cards were confirmed, East trotted out 7NT. This is definitely the place to be, because: (a) It scores better than 7♠, needless to say; (b) It’s quite possible that 7NT will be a safer contract than 7♠, it’s not difficult to construct hands where 13 tricks can be brought in at No Trump when there is a trump loser in 7♠.
System Note After your side opens 1NT, what are your partnership agreements for using Key Card? There are various ways to go, please see the Bidding Quiz for more on this subject.
What a difference a lead makes! If North finds the inspired start of a trump, the best that Declarer can do is to scramble 9 tricks. But, would you really lead a trump with that North hand? Doesn’t the J♥ look more appealing? Yes, of course it does, it’s attacking and safe, who could ask for more? But look what happens: J♥ lead won by Declarer’s Queen Heart ruffed on the board K♦ covered by the Ace and ruffed by Declarer Heart ruffed on the board Cash Q♦ and J♦, pitching Clubs Now, a low Spade from the board and it’s no fewer that 12 tricks!
Against 3♠, however the defense goes, Declarer will be able to take two Heart ruffs on the board and will end up with 9 tricks. Not much excitement on this board!
South’s 2♣ bid showed the majors, and West’s 2♠ bid showed some values with a stopper in the Spade suit. North’s Double suggested that Partner compete to 3♠, and eventually West pushed on to 4♣. Fortunately for E-W, 4♣ was not doubled, because the contract goes down one when the defense starts with three Hearts and gets a trump promotion.
Back to the bidding. Professor Oddbid tells us that he objects strongly to that Michaels bid and wishes it to be known that 1♥ is the only sane bid with the South hand. Well, yes, it would be embarrassing if E-W were to zip into 3NT played from the West side, and then North were to lead a Spade. But, on the other hand, if South overcalls 1♥, N-S will lose their Spade fit when they have one. On the actual deal, that would be most unfortunate, leaving E-W to play in a cozy 3♣ contract when N-S should be competing to 3♠. So, make your own choice, neither approach is guaranteed to succeed.
Once West had opened and agreed Spades, East took the direct Roman Key Card route to 6♠. His 5♦ bid was the Queen Ask, and West’s 6♣ said “Yes, I have the Q♠, and I also have the K♣”. And, as West had bypassed 5♥ with his response, his 6♣ bid also denied the K♥.
There’s nothing to the play in 6♠, West’s minor suit cards conveniently fill up the gaps in the East hand and it’s 12 easy tricks.
West has a close decision after 4♠, we think. We don’t think that Pass is unreasonable, especially at matchpoints, nor do we fault West for taking another call. This is the kind of deal that might make one wonder why one is not playing a Strong Club system! We will say that this is not a hand for Roman Key Card, we prefer West’s actual approach of making one try with 5♦ and then leaving things up to Partner. We’ll further say that East did well not to bid on over 5♠, his logic no doubt being that for one who has bid so strongly he does have a rather alarming deficiency of Key Cards.
It turns out that even 5♠ is one too many, the bad trump break sinks the contract. We’d be surprised if many pairs manage to stay at the four-level on these cards.
West’s 2♦ was New Minor Forcing, checking for a 5-3 Spade fit, and when that did not materialize he settled for 3NT. South leads the Heart Nine which is run around to Declarer’s Queen. The lead marks North with the K♥, so at this point Declarer would like to keep North off lead. He takes the Club finesse, and it’s one of those finesses that Declarer dearly hopes will lose, if it does the hand becomes so much simpler. Alas for Declarer, the finesse wins! Now what? Declarer just doesn’t have the entries back to his hand to tackle Diamonds the safe way (into North’s hand) so he cashes the A♣ and finesses against North’s hoped-for Q♦ by leading low to the Jack. Unlike the Club finesse, this is a finesse that Declarer very much hopes will win, and when it does a large number of tricks are on the horizon. Declarer knocks out the K♣, and ends up scoring 4 Clubs, 4 Diamonds, 2 Hearts and a Spade for a total of 11 tricks.
Can the defense do any better? Yes, but only if South finds the unlikely opening lead of a Spade. But not just any old Spade, it has to be the Queen!
West leads the Spade Six, and, as Declarer can see all the lower spots, it’s reasonable to assume that West started with no more than 4 of them. At this point it seems like a good idea to win the first Spade and to send one right back. West can cash his three Spade winners, but East will be under some pressure finding two pitches: - Pitching even one Club will look quite dangerous (imagine Declarer with four of them) - Pitching Hearts looks safe enough, but that will only dissuade Declarer from misguessing the suit - Pitching Diamonds will make it safer for Declarer to lead towards the K♦ for an 8th trick.
We’d guess that East will pitch two Hearts. Now, West does best to shift to a Club, and Declarer wins Dummy’s King, and cashes 3 Hearts ending on the board. This time East must pitch a couple of minor suit cards, and even pitching one Diamond will make it safe for Declarer to try for an 8th trick by leading a Diamond towards the King … even if the Ace is offside, the defense can score only 6 tricks … when the Ace turns out to be onside, it’s 8 tricks and a good board for Declarer.
Note For DONT Aficionados A couple of weeks ago, we initiated an empirical study into the effectiveness of perpetrating a DONT bid with 4-4 distribution. We defined some parameters for this test (repeated below) and now we also add some equally robotic rules for the side which opens 1NT: In Direct Seat: Use DONT when 4-4 with10+ HCP’s when not vulnerable Use DONT when 4-4 with 12+ HCP’s when vulnerable In Balancing Seat: Use DONT with any 4-4 hand The Opening Side: The 1NT Opener doubles with two likely trump tricks His Partner doubles with 8+ HCP’s and 2+ trumps or with 6+ HCP’s and 3 trumps How do our robots do on this deal? East jumps right in with 2♣, North doubles and that is the final contract. Down one would be a DONT triumph (-100 against -120) but it turns out to be down two, so the running score is now: DONT Robots 1 Solid Citizens 2
Quite an auction! Let’s discuss some of the more notable bids: - South’s 2♠: Nothing wrong with this, but we would say that South is pretty much at the top end of her bid, she wouldn’t need more than an extra trump or another point or two to make a cue-bid of 3♥. - West’s 3♠: West shows a game-going hand with Heart support, and is making a stronger bid than a direct 4♥. Do you and your Partner play this as creating a Forcing Pass situation? In other words, after 3♠, are E-W obliged either to play this in game or else to defend a doubled contract? Follow the link for more on this subject. For the purposes of this auction, we’ll assume that the featured E-W pair have indeed created a force. - North’s 4♦: Now here is a rum state of affairs! E-W have created a force and now North is cue-bidding at the four-level. You only have to look at the auction to know that there’s lots of distribution around the table and that the final contract will no doubt be doubled. What does 4♦ mean? It could be interpreted as a second suit but we’d suggest that it is better played as a lead director. For more on this please see the Bidding Quiz. - East’s 4♥: East is clearly more interested in declaring than defending. A Pass or Double here would suggest more in the way of defense. - South’s 4♠: South is happy to bid again with her extras. - West’s Pass of 4♠: This is a Forcing Pass (by virtue of that 3♠ bid), and indicates uncertainty … true, West does have 4 Spades which could be a nuisance in their 4♠ contract … on the other hand, he has an extra Heart and the suddenly vulnerable K♦, which suggest bidding on. - East’s 5♥: East has no doubts about bidding on with that 6-5 hand. - South’s Double: South is warning Partner not to bid again … she only has 3 trumps and does not want to hear 5♠ from Partner … and she has the A♣ which suggests that 5♥ may be beaten. But it’s far from a sure thing!
A fascinating auction, with instructive choices by all four protagonists!
This one turns out to be a battle between East’s Spades and South’s Hearts, and as is more often the case it’s the Spades that win. For more on South’s sequence, please see the Bidding Quiz.
In 3♠, looking at all 4 hands, there are two obvious Spade losers and a Club, along with one or two Heart losers, depending upon how Declarer guesses the suit. So, it’ll be 8 or 9 tricks. However, South has no especially attractive opening lead and may well lay down the A♥, taking all the mystery away from the hand and ensuring that Declarer makes his 3♠ contract. However, let us suppose that South finds the lead of the Club Eight. Now, please check out Play Problem # 142 to see how Declarer might manage to avoid the Heart guess altogether.
It’s possible that South might play in some number of Hearts. How many tricks does she make? The defense starts with A♦, K♦ and a third Diamond. Dummy must ruff high and rely on 2-2 trumps … when that works, she loses a Club and staggers home with 9 tricks.
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