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Hand Analyses 28th March, 2007
South took advantage of her third seat status to introduce a good 4-card major and then passed North’s “semi-forcing” 1NT. Yes, North might quite reasonably have bid 2♥ also, which South should pass.
Against North’s 1NT, let’s suppose that East leads a Diamond, to West’s Queen and Declarer’s Ace. Declarer now loses a Heart to West’s Queen or East’s Jack, and the defense must give up on Diamonds and attack Spades … of course, if it is East that wins the Heart then he must lay down the Q♠. That will be 7 tricks for Declarer, but 8 if the defense persists with Diamonds.
How about 2♥, also played by North? On the surface it looks as if Declarer must lose two Hearts, one Diamond (the other goes on a Spade), and a Club (Declarer can finesse the Nine, and later take a ruffing finesse against the King). That would be just 4 losers, but Declarer cannot quite hold everything together for 9 tricks, she lacks communications back to her hand to lead Clubs twice. So, 8 tricks it is.
It’s easy to see most N-S pairs getting to game, but the hands fit poorly, and Declarer seems destined to lose three Aces and a Heart. But sometimes the defense comes to the rescue in these hopeless contracts and that could happen here. It would not be unreasonable for South to lead a Diamond here, her possession of the Ace of trumps improves her chances of getting a ruff. Now North might make the mistake of ducking or else winning and returning a Diamond, and in either case it will be 10 tricks. If North is to save the day for the defense she must hop up with the A♦ and shift to a Heart.
North took the simple road to 3NT, transferring to Spades and rebidding 3NT. She saw no point in introducing the Club suit, judging slam to be unlikely and not wanting to help the opponents find the right opening lead. Against 3NT, it seems normal enough for East to lead a low Heart … that will be 12 tricks for Declarer. The only way to hold Declarer to 11 tricks is the opening lead of the K♦, somewhat unlikely.
We are conditioned to play in the major suit whenever we have a 4-4 fit, but here E-W managed to hit the jackpot in 3NT. West offered a choice of contract, and East guessed to leave it in 3NT. Not that either contract is a great bargain, we hasten to add.
The majority of pairs will no doubt play in 4♥ from the West side. Of course, North can beat this contract by giving Partner two Spade ruffs on the go, but that’s unlikely to happen in real life. North will no doubt start with a low Diamond, raising Declarer’s hopes that the Diamond honors are split and that the opening lead has blown a trick for the defense. The first order of business is to guess the trump suit. Any clues? Nothing really substantial, other than the small clue that North did not lead a trump and therefore is more likely to hold the Queen in that suit. It’s not much to go on, but let’s say that Declarer gets the trump suit right, drawing three rounds ending on the board. Now, a Spade to the King and North’s Ace, then North leads a Diamond which Declarer unsuccessfully finesses. Declarer is doomed, and will end up down one.
The few pairs that get to 3NT will likely have more luck. North leads the Spade Four and the Rule of Eleven tells Declarer that South has just one Spade higher than that Four. Hoping that the higher card is anything but the Nine, Declarer plays low from the board and wins with the Eight. As in the 4♥ contract, Declarer will probably get the Heart guess right, this time because, if the finesse is to be lost, it would be safer to lose it to the South hand from where a Club shift would be less dangerous. Having ensured 4 Heart tricks, Declarer is up to 7 altogether … another trick is available in each of the black suits, and the safe way of establishing the Spade trick first. Making 9 tricks and a top board!
East’s 2♠ bid was “neutral”, showing the inability to make another descriptive bid, and not necessarily showing a sixth Spade.
Against 3NT, the lead which gives Declarer the most trouble is a highly unlikely Spade, but the unfortunate lead of the unbid suit seems more likely. The J♥ lead gives Declarer a third Heart winner, taking him up to 9 tricks in all, and now it all depends on the play of the Diamond suit … if Declarer can bring in that suit for one loser he’ll score a whopping twelve tricks, otherwise the defense will shift to Spades and hold him to 9 tricks.
The winning play in the Diamond suit is to lay down the Ace and lead towards the Queen, a line of play which has a 37% chance of success. Unfortunately for those with an encyclopedic knowledge of card combinations, there is a theoretically better line available, and that is to lead towards the Queen on the first round of the suit, planning to finesse the Seven on the second round if South wins the King and if the Jack or Ten has appeared from North. This line has a 39% success rate, but is no success at all on the actual layout.
West’s 2♣ was New Minor Forcing, investigating a 5-3 Spade fit, and eventually 3NT was reached. South will likely lead a Club on this auction, won by North’s Queen. Presumably South will have led a “top of nothing” Club, marking Declarer with the Jack, and that will make it easy for North to find the deadly Heart shift. Declarer should jump up with the A♥ (he doesn’t want South to win and shift back to Clubs), and when he has to lose a Diamond he’ll be down one.
Declarer does better playing in Diamonds, of course, making 12 tricks despite the off-side K♦, but 5♦ is a tough contract to reach.
A Tragic Lead Director The moral of the following story is “Beware of low-level lead-directing Doubles”, here’s what might happen. Suppose that North throws in a Double of 2♣, and E-W (somewhat improbably, perhaps) decide to tough it out in 2♣ redoubled. No doubt this decision will have been based on their good controls, their ruffing values, and an eagerness to get their names into the newspapers. North leads a Heart won by Dummy’s Ace … now ruff a Heart, cross to the A♦, ruff a Heart, cross to the A♠, ruff another Heart, cash K♠ and Q♠. Now North is down to 5 trumps and nothing else, with the KQ976 sitting in front of the J3. Declarer leads another Spade, and Dummy’s Jack scores a trick en passant. That’s 9 tricks and +1160 for E-W!
South elected to treat her hand as balanced and 22-24 HCP’s, quite reasonable in our view, but not the only way to handle this collection (please see the Bidding Quiz). Whatever the route, the final destination will be 4♠ which, as the cards lie, is pretty much Declarer-proof for 12 tricks. However, there’s a right way to play this hand … West leads a Club, North plays A♠ and a Spade to West’s King, the Club return is ruffed by Declarer, then a Spade to Dummy’s Queen. Now Declarer must run the J♦ and not the J♥. If she runs the J♥ and it loses to West’s King, a Heart will come back, after which Declarer’s only way to take the Diamond finesse is to cross to the board with a trump (requiring an earlier unblock of the Spade Nine), using up her last two trumps and risking the contract if this finesse also loses. But a losing Diamond finesse is less of a problem, as a Diamond ruff provides an entry to the board if the finesse loses. However, as we said, it’s Declarer-proof when both red suit finesses work.
With a quite pitiful hand, East reasonably decided to try for a major suit fit. His plan, if West were to rebid 2♦, was to bid 2♥, which in the E-W methods was Garbage Stayman, trying to get out in 2♥ or 2♠.
N-S can make +110 or +120 their way, so the objective for West in 2♥ will to be somehow scrape up 6 tricks for a decent matchpoint result. It will be touch and go: T♣ lead won by Declarer’s Ace A Club to Dummy’s Eight and South’s King Q♥ (good shift!) and the defense draws three rounds of trumps Spade to the Ten and Declarer’s King K♦ losing to South’s Ace Spade to the Ace Spade to the Queen Club ruffed by Declarer Q♦ is cashed, and now the board has the last trump and a good Spade. Phew! Down only two and a nice Houdini act by Declarer.
South felt that her hand was worth a slam try, she was hoping for both red Kings and some way of avoiding a Club loser (Q♣ or Q♦ or doubleton Club). Anyway, that was not to be and South has to settle for 11 tricks if West finds the likely Diamond lead.
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