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Hand Analyses March 21st, 2007
After 1♣ 1♦, 1♥, most partnerships play that 1♠ is natural (and forcing) and that 2♠ is the artificial “Fourth Suit Forcing”, and so it was in the featured auction.
Against 4♠, leading the unbid suit is not an option, and it seems reasonable to try one of Dummy’s suits. A Club lead looks more promising than a Heart, and the play might go as follows: J♣ lead (obvious singleton or doubleton) won by West’s Queen Heart to the King and South’s Ace Club return, won on the board Diamond to the Nine and North’s Ten Heart to Dummy’s Queen Cash A♠ and K♠ Cash A♦ Ruff a Diamond (doesn’t help North to ruff with the Queen) Ruff a Heart Now, Declarer runs his Diamonds and North can take her Q♠ whenever she likes. 10 tricks.
Walsh Note This week there are no fewer than 6 deals where Walsh-style auctions will come into play. In this week’s Bidding Quiz we’ll review all these auctions and see what impact this style of bidding has on the outcome.
West’s game-forcing 2/1 auction got his side too high, but we have sympathy for the approach that he chose, it was unfortunate that East had so much stuff opposite his void.
An alternative approach for West would be to try a Forcing No Trump, but that does not work any better. North rebids 2♠, and now West has an awkward choice between: - Either, inviting to 3♠ with small doubleton support (while keeping those 11 red cards a closely guarded secret!) - Or, bidding 3♥ (invitational) on a rather poor suit. Whichever way West goes, we’d expect East to bid on with that lovely shape, so it looks to us that most E-W pairs will play in game, after which it depends on the opening lead.
North can beat 4♥ two tricks by leading a trump (or even a Spade), but that is not going to happen, she’ll lead a minor suit: - If she leads a Club, Declarer finesses the Club and cashes the A♣, pitching away his Spades … now Declarer can scramble 9 tricks, he doesn’t quite have the timing to set up the Diamonds and also enjoy them. - If North leads a Diamond, this rotten contract actually makes! Declarer overtakes the T♦ with the Jack, ruffs a Diamond, cashes the A♣ (pitching a Spade), and plays the K♥. Whether South ducks or wins, Declarer can come to 10 tricks.
How about 4♠? It looks to us that 9 tricks will be made on either minor suit lead.
A long-winded auction gets N-S to 3♣. We like South’s choice of 3♣ over 2NT, clearly she is a devotee of the Kokish Rule, which says something like this: “When we have a 6-card minor, it rarely pays to play in 2NT. Either we can establish the minor in time and belong in 3NT, or else we cannot establish the minor and belong in 3♣ where the long suit can score tricks regardless”
Kokish comes up trumps on the actual deal … 2NT cannot be made, the defense establishes its major suit tricks before the Clubs get going and 7 tricks is the limit … but in 3♣, Declarer makes 9 tricks.
Walsh Note This week there are no fewer than 6 deals where Walsh-style auctions will come into play. In this week’s Bidding Quiz we’ll review all these auctions and see what impact this style of bidding has on the outcome.
2♠ was Fourth Suit Forcing and the normal 3NT was eventually reached. It’s a friendly hand, it’s hard to see how anything other than 11 tricks can result.
Walsh Note This week there are no fewer than 6 deals where Walsh-style auctions will come into play. In this week’s Bidding Quiz we’ll review all these auctions and see what impact this style of bidding has on the outcome.
E-W did well to play this one in 3NT rather than 4♠. 11 top tricks are available in either contract, that is unless North walks into a rather pretty squeeze. Suppose that North finds a Diamond opening lead, which is ducked. North persists with a Diamond, and Declarer cashes 5 Spades. Here is the position with 6 cards left: North ♠ ♥ T ♦ KJ ♣ QT7 Declarer Dummy ♠ ♠ 4 ♥ KQ63 ♥ A8 ♦ T ♦ ♣ J ♣ A92 South ♠ ♥ J954 ♦ ♣ K5 When Dummy’s last Spade is cashed, South is squeezed out of a Club card, she has to hang on to those 4 Hearts. Declarer pitches a Heart from his hand, and then cashes the top three Hearts. Now it is North’s turn to be squeezed! When the third Heart winner is cashed she will have to unguard one of the minors and it will be 12 tricks for Declarer. This one has a fancy name, it’s called a Non-Simultaneous Double Squeeze, no less!
If North had been of an unsporting disposition she would have broken up the squeeze by shifting to a Club at Trick Two. Far from obvious.
Playing standard Jacoby 2NT methods, South has a rebid choice between 3♥ (shortness) and 4♦ (a good 5-card suit). In the featured auction South chose the latter course, which did not do much to inspire North … she tried a cue-bid of 4♥, then gave up when South bid 4♠.
How good is the slam? It’s somewhat iffy! A Club lead creates the biggest problems for Declarer, and she does best by jumping up with the Ace, cashing the A♥, and (before tacking trumps) taking the ruffing finesse in Hearts, pitching the Club loser when East plays low. With trumps 2-2 and Hearts 4-3 this line leads to 12 tricks.
After opening 2♣, South’s plan was to rebid 2NT, even after a 2♦ response by Partner, and notwithstanding the singleton K♠. Please see the Bidding Quiz.
Opposite a 2♣ opener, North has quite a hand, clearly this one is a six or seven deal. North’s 2♠ was a positive and natural response showing a decent suit, we’d say that AJTxxx is quite good enough, especially considering all of the side-suit values. After 3NT, North was in an awkward situation, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
In the featured auction, 4♥ was a cue-bid, after which 4NT was Roman Key Card. 5♣ showed one or four, 5♦ was the Queen Ask, and 5♠ denied the Q♠. With all the extra values North sensibly chose 6NT in preference to 6♠.
This is a strange deal, with N-S able to make precisely 12 tricks in all four suits and also in No Trump! 6♠ can be made despite the 5-1 trump break, but only with double dummy play as follows: East leads the J♣, won by Declarer’s King K♥, then Q♥, then A♥ are cashed Club ruff A♦ and K♦ are cashed Q♣ is cashed. Now, Declarer and West are both down to nothing but trumps in this end position: Declarer ♠ AJT65 ♥ ♦ ♣ West East ♠ Q9842 ♠ 7 ♥ ♥ J ♦ ♦ J8 ♣ ♣ J Dummy ♠ K ♥ ♦ Q7 ♣ Q8 Now, Dummy plays a Diamond (or Club) and West must ruff. South overruffs, crosses to the K♠, and plays another minor suit card. Again West must ruff, and his second natural trump trick has disappeared in a puff of smoke.
Another 4-suit auction, where 1♠ is natural. Against 1NT South will probably lead a Diamond, and eventually Declarer will get to the board (probably with a Heart finesse) and take the losing Club finesse, making 7 tricks.
Walsh Note This week there are no fewer than 6 deals where Walsh-style auctions will come into play. In this week’s Bidding Quiz we’ll review all these auctions and see what impact this style of bidding has on the outcome.
A most straightforward auction to a 2♠ contract. There are a zillion lines of play, and it seems to us that most of them lead to 9 tricks for Declarer.
Is that the end of our analysis? Not exactly, we have a confession to make. We would have been sorely tempted, as South, to have doubled 2♠. Here is how we might have embarked on a high-tech auction on our way to a possible zero! West North East South Pass Pass Pass 1♠ Pass 2♠ Dbl Pass 2NT Pass 3♦ Pass Pass Dbl Pass Pass Pass First, suppose that you held the South hand, but you were sitting in the North seat. 2♠ gets passed around to you and surely you would be tempted to make a balancing Double … you have the right hand-type, and you are not vulnerable, and you hate to sell out at the two-level.
Next, look at the same South hand but in the actual direct seat. This is the so-called “pre-balancing” situation. E-W are in a live auction, but the minimum 2♠ bid increases the chances that this might be our hand, or at least a hand where we can compete safely to the 3-level. In such a situation, South might be emboldened to “pre-balance” with a Double. This enterprising bid finds the 4-4 fit in Diamonds, but, alas, on this occasion, the 2♠ bidder has no fewer than three trump tricks, and the pre-balancing Double may not work well. But there is hope! West may consider that Partner’s Double is optional, and with his singleton Diamond may try 3♠. Sometimes, bidding technology is more of a hindrance than a help!
East might have been tempted to preempt with 3♣, given that 5-card suit, but we don’t think that is a good idea with such a shapeless hand and vulnerable … in fact 3♣ may well get punished, deservedly so, we’d say.
North can actually make 10 tricks in Hearts, but it’s lucky in the extreme. Three Aces must be lost, so the Clubs and Hearts must be guessed correctly, and if the defense attacks Spades early then Declarer must further rely on 3-3 Diamonds for a Spade pitch before trumps are drawn. In other words, 3♥ is plenty high enough, and +170 should be a reasonable board for N-S.
Do you think that West should have taken some action over the 1♥ opening bid? Maybe, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 3NT West leads the Club Five, won by Declarer’s King. Declarer can go after tricks in Hearts or Diamonds, and all things being equal it would be normal to go after Hearts first, catering for the situation where Clubs are 5-2, and where West has the K♥ and East the A♦. But all things are not equal because of the entry situation, so Declarer does best to go after Diamonds first ... let's say the the Jack is led and East craftily ducks ... then over to the A♠ and play the K♦ ... it turns out to be bad news and good news, bad that the Diamonds don't break, good that East cannot return a Club and leads a Spade instead. Now, the J♥ is led, and it's West's turn for a crafty duck. Declarer repeats the Heart finesse, but this time it loses to the King ... now the A♣ and out a Club and Declarer has no way back to her hand for those major suit winners. She plays on Diamonds, East gets in the the T♦, and must concede the rest of the tricks to Dummy's Diamonds or Declarer's majors. That's 9 tricks only for Declarer. Both defenders did well when they ducked, otherwise Declarer would score 10 tricks.
Not a very successful auction by our featured E-W pair, as 7♠ is a fine contract, though a difficult one to reach. Here are some observations on the above sequence: - East’s 2♥ was being played as game-forcing. - Some 2/1 players would rebid 2♠ with the West hand, using this as a “neutral” bid (not necessarily showing a 6th Spade) as they require a stronger hand for 3♣ here. - Of the two hands, it seems more appropriate for East to take control … if West takes control, it will be difficult for East to show those nice Club cards and singleton Diamond. - 5♠ showed 2 Key Cards and the Q♠. If E-W have void-showing responses available (such as 5NT to show 2 Key Cards and a void) then they should save that for another day, as East would reasonably expect a “useful” void in Diamonds, not in his first-bid suit. - 5NT guaranteed all the Key Cards and asked Partner for “specific Kings”. - 6♣ showed the K♣, and did not necessarily deny additional Kings. - Is 6♠ a sign-off? Absolutely not! West made the cheapest cue-bid (Clubs), and showed the cheapest King, and is unlimited. When East bids 6♠ he is saying that he needs more from Partner, and that all of the Key Cards and the K♣ is not enough.
If we accept that 6♠ cannot be an absolute sign-off, should West bid on? “Maybe” is about as far as we would go. True, he has already shown all 13 of his points, but it’s pretty clear that East is concerned about the 2nd round of Hearts. West has that under control, but on the other hand he has only 5 trumps and if 7♠ depends on establishing the Hearts then there may not be enough trumps to make this possible. So, yes, West is entitled to bid 7♠, but no, it’s not 100% clear that he should. A tough hand!
N-S got into a 4th Suit Forcing auction to a routine but doomed 3NT auction. East leads a low Club, Declarer ducks a couple of rounds, hoping that the missing Aces are with the short Clubs. But it is to no avail, and 3NT ends up down two.
Yes, the 4-3 Spade game makes, somewhat fortuitously, but we would not expect many pairs to find that contract with two such balanced hands.
Over 1♦, as North, would you have tried the Unusual Two No Trump, showing Hearts and Clubs in this case? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
After North’s actual 1♥ overcall, East ends up in 2NT, which turns out not to be a great success, even if South does not find the lethal Club opening lead. She’ll probably start with a Spade, but even that will be good enough to beat 2NT, surely the defense will find a Club shift early in the proceedings.
It’s tough for N-S to reach their cold 3NT contract on a combined 20 HCP’s, they’ll more likely end up defending 3♠ for -140. South had a particularly difficult bid over East’s 1♠. What would be your choice? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
Bold hand evaluation by North! After 1♥, a rebid of 1NT usually shows 6-10 HCP’s, and a jump to 2NT is 11-12. But, though North had only 10 HCP’s, she saw three good reasons to upgrade her hand to the 11-12 range: - She has a 5-card suit - She has two Aces - She has three Tens These are all good plus points, of course, the glass half-full approach in action. But North might also have considered the emptiness of that 5-card suit. And then there is the lack of a stopper in the unbid suit, a serious defect indeed. However, boldness works on this deal when the A♠ is on-side and the Diamonds behave, making 9 tricks.
Over 1♥, North might well have considered bidding 2♥. It’s hard to see South taking another bid, though, so that is where she’ll play it. West leads a Spade to East’s Ace, and a Spade back to Declarer’s King. Now it would be natural enough, before drawing trumps, for Declarer to cash three Clubs hoping to pitch that Spade loser from the board. Alas, East ruffs the third round of Clubs, and now Declarer must guess the J♥ (she should, given the 5-2 Club break) just to make 9 tricks.
Walsh Note This week there are no fewer than 6 deals where Walsh-style auctions will come into play. In this week’s Bidding Quiz we’ll review all these auctions and see what impact this style of bidding has on the outcome.
West’s 2♥ was Michaels, showing Spades and a minor. North’s 4♣ bid was a Splinter showing a Heart fit and shortness in Clubs (see Bidding Quiz). Well bid by West to go to 5♣, which turns out to be a fine sacrifice. Should North or South have pushed on to 5♥? It’s not obvious that they can, both players have Spade losers, and the trump situation is somewhat tenuous.
5♣ doubled is down two tricks and that will be -300 and a good board for E-W. As for Hearts, N-S can make 11 tricks, but only if they play the Heart suit correctly. It won’t do for Declarer to finesse the Queen in this situation, if she does that the KT will be over Dummy’s Jack and the defense will score a trump trick. Correct play is to run the J♥, catering for the chance that East has KTx … East can cover, of course, but now the Ten is finessable.
South’s hand may not pass the Rule of Twenty, but it does have 3 quick tricks which is good enough for us. South’s rebid was a Support Double, showing 3 of Partner’s Hearts, and 4♥ was inevitably reached (at all tables?). This may be the flattest board of the set, with N-S scoring +650 around the room.
North’s 1♠ was the 4th suit, but played by this pair as natural (2♠ here would have been Fourth Suit Forcing). We’d expect another rather flat board, this one has all the hallmarks of multiple +140 N-S scores all around the room. East will likely lead the J♥, won by Declarer’s Queen … now the Spade finesse loses to the Queen and all non-comatose Wests will promptly shift to the A♣, cashing the Club winners before they disappear on the Hearts.
Walsh Note This week there are no fewer than 6 deals where Walsh-style auctions will come into play. In this week’s Bidding Quiz we’ll review all these auctions and see what impact this style of bidding has on the outcome.
As West, would you overcall 1♠ with 1NT? Or would you pass, waiting for the balancing Double, planning to make a Penalty Pass. The winner turns out to be the Pass, and it’s also the correct bid, in our view. For why, please see the Bidding Quiz.
It seems that Declarer cannot make more than 6 tricks in 1♠ doubled, here’s a possible line of play: T♣, won by South’s Ace Heart to East’s Queen (Declarer’s plan is to score at least one Heart ruff) Low Spade to South’s Ace (East’s plan is not to let Declarer score small trumps) Club to the King Heart ruff Q♣, ruffed by West Now, whatever the defense does, Declarer will scrape up 6 tricks one way or another … either the defense will be forced to break open the Diamonds, or Declarer will score another Heart ruff. Even so, +200 on a part-score hand will be a good board for E-W.
Do you think that 3♠ preempt is a bit extreme with only a 6-card suit? We rather like it, notwithstanding the lack of distribution. And, it works like a charm on this particular deal … North can hardly not make a Negative Double, and South is obliged to bid 4♣ for want of better.
4♣ is one too many, and the aggressive preempt pays off. How does 3♠ doubled do? It is probably down one, unless N-S defend with laser-like precision: A♣ opening lead Trump shift, won on the board K♥ led, ducked by South Heart, won by South’s Ace K♦ cashed Over to the A♦ Q♦ cashed, South pitching a Heart, Declarer ruffing Declarer exits a Club Trump return won on the board Now, Dummy is out of trumps and has the lead for the last time … whichever red suit winner Dummy plays will be ruffed by South, and the defense takes 6 tricks. See how important it was to win Trick Two on the board and play the first round of Hearts from the board? The player with the A♥ had to decide whether or not to duck the first round without the benefit of a count signal from Partner. Conversely, if Declarer had reason to think that North had the A♥, then he would have arranged to win that trump shift in his hand, and lead a Club towards the board, putting North to the test.
West is not quite good enough to double 1NT, so he settles for a bid of 2♥. In this contract 9 tricks should result thanks to the lucky Heart situation … either a Club ruff will be available on the board, or South will be forced to concede an extra minor suit trick.
Not much to this one, East added up his HCP’s and Spades (Cansino count), got a number less than 15, and chose to pass out the hand. But this was not a triumph for the Cansino-count, it turns out that E-W can make 2♥ or 3♦ but that N-S have no making contracts whatsoever.
A sharply fought auction! One can hardly blame South for balancing with a one-level non-vulnerable Double, nor North for competing to 2♠. How about West’s Double? Somewhat speculative to be sure, but well-judged we would say, please see the Bidding Quiz. Having said that, it’s far from obvious than East should pass the Double … he’s opposite a passed hand, he has all those points in Partner’s 5-card suit, and the opponents are non-vulnerable (+100 may not be so great if 3♥ is making) … all in all, we’d say that East’s Pass is brave indeed!
Dr Goodlead did not much care for East’s final Pass (he preferred 3♥), which was just as well, because he did not live up to his well-deserved name … against 2♠ doubled, he tragically led A♦ and a second Diamond, allowing Declarer to scramble 8 tricks. Oops! If the good Doctor had not succumbed to March Madness, perhaps he would have reasoned that South is likely to be short in Hearts and that maybe trump leads were the way to go. A trump lead is quite devastating, as seen in this line of play: Spade to the King and West’s Ace Heart back to East Spade to the Queen Diamond to the Queen and East’s Ace J♦ covered by the King (ducking is no better), and ruffed by West Spade to Declarer’s Jack Losing Club finesse Two Hearts cashed by the defense. Declarer has the rest of the tricks, but it’s still a disastrous down two.
Good bidding by South! She did not expect 4♠ to make, of course, but she was pretty sure that the opponents had game in Hearts, so she applied maximum pressure to West. And who can blame West for taking the push with those 7 Hearts? No doubt he was apprehensive about the bid with those 2 Spade losers, but then again he had no way of knowing who could make what, even 4♠ was a possible make from his point of view.
Of course, Spades makes a lucky 9 tricks and Hearts makes just 10 tricks, so South is well rewarded for her aggressive bidding. Would it have worked out better if West had bid 4♥ directly over 1♠? Not if North had been awake, we’d suggest that, in that situation, she should dredge up a 4♠ bid.
If you had trouble bidding the West hand after East’s 2♥ opening, then you were surely not alone. If Opener has KQ♥ and A♦ (dream on!) then 7NT requires no more than some friendly breaks in the red suits. Another possibility is for East to have good Hearts and a singleton Club, making 6♥ a good proposition. In this situation, we’d love to have a singleton-asking bid available (some partnerships do). In the absence of that, we’d like to be able to use 4♣ here as Roman Key Card (good treatment!), and if we get the magic “two with” we’ll try 7♥. But, if Partner has only one Key Card, then we’ll stop in 4♥, taking the pessimistic view (fearing a Club lead and no singleton with East).
As it happens, 10 tricks is the limit. Let’s say that South leads the Q♣, won by Dummy’s Ace. Now the K♦ is led, won by South’s Ace … a Club to North’s King, and a Spade back. Dummy now no longer has the entries to set up the Diamonds and enjoy them, so Declarer must make do with a trick in each side-suit, plus 6 trumps, and a Spade ruff. Well done, Mr West, for not getting your side too high!
What do you think of that buccaneering 4♥ bid by East? Absolutely terrible, in our ever so humble opinion! We love to preempt, even more so than most (or so some of our ex-Partners have told us), but here East has no reason to get over-dramatic. He has great offense, for sure, but he also has some defense, it would be nice if he could get Partner involved in the auction. After trying to put the opponents on the spot with that (ill-advised) 4♥ bid, East finds that he is the one who must make the last guess when North bids 4♠ (nice bid, by the way!). He can hardly double, nor can he bid 5♥, and is obliged to pass.
It turns out that 4♠ is down two and that 4♥ is, er, yes, well exactly does happen to 4♥? South leads a Spade won by Declarer’s Ace. The AK♥ are cashed, and when the Queen does not come down, Declarer is in dire straits, he needs some luck in Clubs. He leads a low Club towards the board and South must fly with the Ace (not an obvious play), cash a Spade and the Q♥ and exit a Spade, ruffed by Declarer. Now, Declarer must guess the Club situation, by figuring out whether South started life with 3-3-5-2 or 3-3-4-3 distribution. He'll cash the remaining trumps, and hope that he can figure out the 3-card ending. North may well give away the game by pitching the Eight and then the Two of Diamonds, marking her with an initial holding of K8xx. Now, if Declarer will play South for 3-3-4-3 distribution, including the Q♣, and will play the J♣ at Trick 11, pinning North's Ten. Nice card reading!
This is a most unremarkable deal, it looks like 2♦ making 9 tricks.
A tricky 1NT contract for East. Deep Finesse has this one making 8 tricks, but that requires an anti-percentage guess in Hearts, we’d say that 7 tricks is more likely. But, as is common in low-level contracts, the play is complicated and could take all sorts of twists and turns.
North has a maximum for her 1NT opening, and South has a bit to spare as well, but it turns out not to be enough on this occasion. East will lead a Diamond, and there’s not much point in ducking (West might overtake with the Queen and shift to a Heart), so Dummy’s K♦ wins the trick, and a Club is played to King and Ace. Now, with the J♣ off-side, and with Diamonds 4-2, the defense comes to 2 Clubs, 2 Diamonds, and the A♥ for down one.
All sorts of might-have-beens on this deal: - Considering the vulnerability, West might have tried a 5-card Weak Two, in which case East would try for game and subside in 3♠, presumably doubled for down two. - East might have overcalled North’s 1♠ with a 2♦ bid, please see the Bidding Quiz for more on East’s choice. - It may not be obvious to East that he should pass West’s Double, who expects West to have 4 trump tricks on this auction? East will quite possibly pull the Double (which looks optional, anyway) to 3♦, finally mentioning his 6-card suit. - East might even take a shot at 3NT, not unreasonable in the circumstances.
Suppose that E-W stumble into 3NT, played by East, after this auction: South West North East Pass Pass 1♠ Dbl Pass 2♣ 2♠ Pass Pass Dbl Pass 3NT Pass Pass Pass
Unable to lead Partner’s suit, South might well lead a Diamond. Sitting North, what would you pitch as North? We suggest the Q♥! What does this mean? Well, first it denies the K♥. Second, it can hardly be asking for a Heart shift, as the Q♥ pitch would be throwing away a potential trick. No, we would say that the spectacular pitch of the Q♥ belongs to the “Wake up, Partner!” category. If South is, indeed, awake she’ll find the Club switch when she gets in with the Q♦, and that will be down 2.
Should North Double with the North hand? We don’t think so, it’s far from clear that the Double calls for Club lead.
The set ends with a straightforward deal, with E-W able to make 9 easy tricks in Hearts. However, there is a wrinkle in the N-S bidding, please see the Bidding Quiz.
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