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Hand Analyses 14th March, 2007
We don’t think that the East hand is quite good enough for a jump shift to 3♣, nor is it worth a slam try after West’s 3♠ limit raise (showing 3-card support).
In the play of 4♠, how would you play the trump suit? It’s usually correct to finesse into the long hand, which would suggest playing the A♠ and running the T♠. This is born out by these percentages for picking up the missing Queen: - Cash the Ace and run the Ten … 51% - First round finesse through the short hand … 48% - Cash the King and finesse through the short hand … 40% That third option is such poor odds because it gives up on Qxxx in the South hand. Anyway, no need to remember the odds, just the conventional wisdom of finessing through the long hand.
As it happens, the Queen is successfully picked up by going with the odds, and, with the Q♥ offside, it looks like 11 tricks for Declarer.
Obscure Squeeze Department Deep Finesse says that 12 tricks can be made and so they can, albeit in unlikely fashion. South cashes the A♦ and shifts, let us say, to a Club. The trump suit is picked up and all of Declarer’s black cards are cashed. South must come down to 3 cards, one of which must be the K♦, leaving room for just two Hearts. Now, a Heart is led to Dummy’s Ace, and the lead of the J♥ squashes South’s Ten, setting up Declarer’s Nine.
South is certainly maximum for that 15-17 1NT, and we would not argue the point if you assert that it is worth a 1♦ opening followed by a 2NT rebid. But 1NT serves our purposes well here, it gives us a chance to introduce one of our favorite gadgets! That strange-looking 3♠ bid showed shortness in Spades, 3 cards in the other major, and 5-4 in the minors. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz.
After the Double of 3♠, what would be your rebid as South? It looks like a choice between 3NT and 5♦. It seems likely that 5♦ will make on some hands where 3NT goes down (for example, if a Diamond must be lost), and 5♦ would be our choice in a team game. But, at matchpoints, we’d be inclined to gamble 3NT, it is quite likely to be cold for 10 or 11 tricks, and will surely have at least a play.
It turns out that Declarer can make 12 tricks in Diamonds, and the same number in 3NT, but, in the latter case, it would have been down one if the Diamond finesse had lost. A triumph for the gamblers!
Some pairs, such as the featured N-S, play the Michaels Cue-Bid as showing either a weak hand or a strong hand … with the in-between hands they bid their suits naturally. Therefore, that Double of 2NT confirmed that North had the strong version, but even that was not enough to get any cooperation from the miserable South hand. It certainly must have pained North to let the opponents play in 3♦, no doubt she was tempted to Double one more time.
How about West’s 2NT? We don’t suppose that there is any “standard” meaning for the bid in this auction, but a reasonable interpretation is surely “Really good hand, Hearts stopped”.
The bottom line is that N-S can make only 7 tricks in Hearts or Spades, and will no doubt be doubled if they venture to the 3-level. As for an E-W Diamond contract, North leads the A♠, and is promptly end-played at Trick Two, whatever she does provides West with an easy route to 10 tricks (or 11 if she shifts to a Club).
South leads a Diamond, and Declarer wins the Ten and returns one immediately. South wins the Ace and is stuck for a good shift. She knows (though Declarer doesn’t) that the K♣ is an entry to Dummy’s good Diamonds, and she further knows that Partner has a maximum of 3 HCP’s. In the circumstances, perhaps a Diamond exit is the wisest course of action … Declarer can run the suit, take the Spade finesse and cash the Spades, coming down to ♥ AQ and ♣ Q74. South will have ♥ KJ and ♣ AT3, and she can be end-played if Declarer reads the position correctly. Will he? He knows that South surely has the A♣ (without that card, South would not have played the 3rd Diamond, she would instead be hoping that North had the A♣ and that the Diamonds could be shut out). Declarer might also wonder why South did not shift to a Heart at Trick Three, and that might persuade him to play South for the K♥, in which case he will play A♥ and out a Heart, end-playing South in Clubs. Nicely played for 10 tricks.
N-S played in a cozy 2♦ contract, making a somewhat fortunate 9 tricks. But the question of the day is where were E-W while all of this was going on? Why were they not in the auction? Please see this week’s edition of “What Went Wrong?”
East’s sequence is the standard way of handling a game-going major 5-4 hand, and North will no doubt lead a Club against 3NT. Declarer plays the Q♥, which North ducks, of course, and South dutifully plays the Two, showing an odd number of cards in the suit. Declarer persists with Hearts and, thanks to South’s count signal, North knows that Declarer has no more cards in the suit and so wins the second round. In the heat of battle it won’t be obvious to North that her safest exit is actually a Club (the Eight). This gives Declarer another cheap Club trick, but he still has to pry open an entry to Dummy’s Hearts. Declarer wins the Club return, and plays on Diamonds. South gets in twice before the Diamond entry is established, giving the defense time to set up the 4th defensive trick in Spades. That will be 9 tricks for Declarer and probably a decent board for the defense, we’d expect to see some 630’s on the score-sheet.
System Note Do you play Smolen? Using this gadget, with East’s 5-4 major suit hand, after the 2♦ response to Stayman, East would bid 3♠, in other words his four-card major. This device allows Opener to become Declarer whenever they decide to play in the 5-3 fit.
Opposite a 15-17 1NT opening, North merely wants to bail out in Diamonds by whatever method that her system prescribes. In the featured auction, North was playing 4-suit Transfers, so 2NT was a transfer to Diamonds.
Playing in 3♦, South should be able to make 10 tricks. Of course, she will delay taking the Heart finesse, playing on Spades first in order to get a Heart pitch. Declarer has a guess in Spades, but not many Easts are capable of smoothly ducking the A♠, looking at that Dummy, so it seems normal to run the Ten. In fact, if the T♠ loses to West’s Queen, we would try to get our 10th trick from a Spade ruffing finesse, declining to give East credit for a brilliant A♠ duck.
System Note After Minor Suit Transfers, many (probably most) partnerships use the intermediate bid (3♣ in the featured auction) to say “I like your minor”, the so-called “pre-accept” method. Our N-S pair here was playing it the other way around, for reasons we discuss in the series of articles on Minor Suit Transfers in the System Library.
Aggressive bidding by West, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
The fortunate lie of the Spades means that the suit can be picked up for one loser, but the 4-1 trump break in Diamonds ensures that the defense can come to 3 tricks. Here are two possible lines of play: - If North leads a Diamond, the defense negotiates a ruff for its 3rd defensive trick. - If North leads a Heart, Declarer wins in Dummy and finesses the T♠, losing to North’s Ace. Now, another Heart won in Dummy, trumps are drawn, but when Diamonds are 4-1 Declarer still manages just 10 tricks.
Against 3♥, South will lead a high Spade, and smartly shift to a trump. Eventually, Declarer loses a Club and 3 Spades for 9 tricks and +140.
West showed good judgment, we think, when he passed East’s 3♥ rebid, but on the lie of the cards 3NT turns out to be cold. North leads the J♠, and Declarer’s first piece of good fortune is that Spades are 4-4. Even so, it looks as if Declarer has only 8 tricks, but it turns out to be his lucky day when the K♣ is singleton.
Back to the bidding. Would you have taken action with the South hand? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
Perhaps that 3NT bid is a bit much, a better plan might be to wait for a balancing Double and make a Penalty Pass. But we couldn’t resist, because 3NT raises a couple of interesting issues! Come to think of it, the auction which follows a Pass also raises some instructive points, which we’ll get to eventually.
What are your methods over that 3NT bid? We would suggest Stayman and transfers in this situation, after all, how often will it be useful to bale out in 4♣ or 4♦? So, North’s 4♦ was a transfer to Hearts, after which North’s 5♠ was Exclusion Key Card Blackwood. Here, North is asking Partner for Key Cards but telling Partner to exclude the A♠ from the response. South’s 6♥ showed two of the 4 remaining Key Cards (without the Q♥), which was all that North needed to go to the Grand Slam. The only possible fly in the 7♥ ointment is the Q♣, but even if Partner does not have that card, it seems likely that the Q♣ will be onside.
OK, let’s suppose that South does not bid 3NT, and instead passes. Now, it is more appealing for West to try 4♠, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. Assuming that West does, indeed, bid 4♠, we might find ourselves in another exotic auction: West North East South 3♠ Pass 4♠ 4NT Pass 5NT Pass 6♣ All Pass What does all that mean? Following violent Spade preempting to the 4-level, we suggest that North’s 4NT says “I have two places to play” (not necessarily just the minors), after which the partnership will usually find their fit at the 5-level. But South decided that her hand was too good to play at the 5-level, so she bid 5NT which, even without prior discussion, sounds like it should be saying “pick-a-slam”. North now knew that South had tolerance for at least two suits, but she could not bid 6♥ in case South’s tolerance was just for the minors. So 6♣ was the final contract.
We would say that N-S did just fine getting to slam here, even if they played in six rather than seven, and even if they played in Clubs rather than the higher-scoring Hearts. N-S used some tricky footwork to get to slam, but we would say that the star of this particular show was West, he of the 2 HCP’s and the feeble two-card support. Nice 4♠ bid, Mr West, you made it virtually impossible for N-S to get to their grand!
Question # 1: Do you consider North’s 1♠ opening bid to be an outrageous psyche or merely a typical 3rd hand light opener? According to our style, we would say the latter, which is why we consider Drury one of the most useful conventions on this planet.
Question # 2: Assuming that you play Drury (whereby 2♣ opposite a 3rd seat opener says “Is your opening sound?”), is it on over a Double? We suggest “Yes”, and also if they had overcalled 1♠ over our third-hand 1♥. In the featured auction, therefore, 2♣ is Drury.
Question # 3: South’s 2♣ Drury bid committed N-S to 2♠, but then West gave North additional options with his 2♦ bid. Now, by North, which is the weaker bid, is it Pass or is it 2♠? We prefer 2♠ to be the weak bid (in line with the Principle of Fast Arrival), but there is a highly populous sub-culture out there which prefers Pass to be the weak bid. No right or wrong here, just a partnership understanding which needs to be reached.
Question # 4: What do you think of that 4♦ bid? We like it a lot! Partner has shown extra values with his second Double, he’s likely to be short in Spades, nothing bad can happen in 4♦. As a matter of fact 5♦ (or 5♣) is a good contract, thanks to those lovely minor suit fillers, but with both minor Kings offside it turns out that 10 tricks is the limit. Our condolences to any E-W pair that went down in the good 5♣ or 5♦ contract, but tisk tisk to any E-W pair who let their opponents steal it in 3♠!
OK, we’re out of questions, on to the next board.
A borderline slam hand. South’s 2♣ was an Inverted Minor bid, showing at least a limit raise in Clubs, and denying a 4-card major. North’s 3NT showed 18-19 HCP’s. We wouldn’t fault South for trying 4NT (natural) now, but even if she had, she would be met with a steadfast refusal by the minimum North.
How good is 6NT? Not very much so, we would say. If Clubs are 4-1 then there is no play. And even if Clubs are 3-2, then there is still a 12th trick that needs to be found, in either Hearts or Diamonds. The Diamonds can provide the extra trick by leading towards the KQ♦ twice (risky if East is sly enough to duck the A♦), or by finessing the J♦ (50% chance), or by bringing in the Hearts (taking the “Restricted Choice” finesse on the third round). They all work!
Hand Evaluation Note Let’s take a look at these two hands: South on Bd 2 North on Bd 12 ♠ K7 ♠ J73 ♥ AQ5 ♥ KQ95 ♦ AQ974 ♦ KQT ♣ Q92 ♣ AK3 Back on Board 2, we wondered if that 17-point South hand was not too good for a 1NT opening bid. Here, with that 1NT North hand, we wonder if North’s 18-count is not bad enough for a 1NT opening. We know which of these two hands we prefer, and it’s not the 18-count!
South is close to doubling 1NT but instead chose a non-forcing 2♣. E-W were playing “systems on” opposite a 1NT overcall, part of which included transfers being on over a 2♣ overcall (with Double being used for Stayman). E-W have an easy 9 tricks in the Spade partial.
A straightforward auction, and a straightforward 11 tricks for Declarer.
Over 1♣, as North, how many Spades would you bid? At any vulnerability but unfavorable we would bid a simple 3♠, but here, Red vs White, perhaps it’s a good idea to tone things down with a 2♠ bid, all the more so considering the 7-2-2-2 shape. And, as for that 3NT bid by East, we confess that we like it!
Against 3NT, South will lead the J♠, and the defense can go one of three ways: - North plays K♠, then A♠, and out a Spade … this is not good defense, not only does it hand Declarer his 9th trick, it gives him chances for 10 … in the 5-card end-game (after the Clubs have been cashed) South will have to come down to 3 Hearts and 2 Diamonds, and an astute Declarer should be able to work out a route to that 10th trick. - North wins the first Spade and shifts to a Heart … now Declarer is still in search of his 9th trick, and he’ll look for that in Diamonds (before playing Clubs) … if he guesses this suit correctly, it will be 10 tricks again, and worst case will be 9. - North ducks the first Spade … now Declarer has his 9th trick, but the duck has kept the defenders in touch with each other and there is no prospect of a 10th.
East’s quite reasonable game invitation has landed his side in a perilously high contract, one which requires your own special Declarer skills if it is to succeed. Please see the Play Problem to confirm that your chosen line of play was, indeed, the correct one.
Back to the bidding. Do you play the Good-Bad 2NT? We refer to North’s choice of bid over 2♠, for more on which, see the Bidding Quiz.
At first glance it looks like 1NT is destined to be down one, but on closer examination we would say that down two is also a possibility. East leads a Spade which Declarer wins … then the A♣ and a Club lost to West’s King … now on the run of the Spades Declarer can pitch a Heart and a Club, after which the defense must attack a red suit and eventually hand Declarer his sixth trick.
What was that we said about “down two”? Well, suppose that West makes the surprising play of ducking the second round of Clubs! West wins the third round of Clubs and the Spades are run and Declarer is subjected to an awkward guess. If she is to keep her Club winner, then she must pitch a Diamond and a Heart (hoping that the K♦ is onside) or else she pitches two Hearts (hoping that the J♥ is doubleton). It seems to us that the onside K♦ is the better bet and if Declarer goes with those odds she will indeed end up down two.
Note For DONT Aficionados For some DONT players, it seems that 4-4 hands provide quite adequate distribution to be classified “two-suiters” and we know many otherwise respectable human beings who would not hesitate to bid 2♦ with the East hand. And if East somehow failed to recognize his hand as a two-suiter, we know a whole bunch of West players who would find a 2♦ bid with that hand. We don’t suppose that it is possible to stamp out this insidious trend, but we can conduct a semi-scientific study on the effectiveness of this approach, starting right now. Is a 2♦ DONT bid successful on this particular hand? It will result in 2♦ making 8 tricks and +90 for the DONT guys. If North is left alone to play it in 1NT, we’d say that it is a toss-up whether the contract is down one or down two (50 or 100, in other words). So, we are adjudicating this one as a tie, and the score therefore is: DONT Aficionados ½ Solid Citizens ½
East has an awkward rebid, please see the Bidding Quiz. Our featured East preferred 2NT (as would we), which was followed by 3♣, New Minor Forcing. West was angling for a 5-3 Spade fit, East could not oblige, but did show a 6th Heart along the way.
South leads a Diamond to the Jack, Queen and Ace. Declarer plays on Hearts, loses the 4th round, wins the Diamond return on the board and crosses to the A♣. At this point 10 tricks are in the bag, and, with the Q♣ offside, that is all Declarer gets. Of course, he could gamble on the Club finesse, trying for 11 and getting just 9.
We don’t see any good reason for North to throw in a light third-hand opening with that square hand and crummy suit. But we do like South’s 7 HCP overcall of 1♥ … she’s non-vulnerable, and it’s probably her side’s last chance to get into the auction. How about West’s Double? It’s not a penalty Double, merely a refusal to sell out to 2♥, and a hand with no good alternative bid. East tries Spades (he knows Partner has 5 of them, because there was no Negative Double of 1♥), and that’s where it is played.
Against 2♠, here is one reasonable line of play: A♥ is led A Heart to Dummy’s King Club to the Queen and North’s King Heart ruffed by Declarer Spade to the Queen and South’s Ace Diamond shift won on the board Spade to the King Now, Declarer is at the crossroads. If Spades are 3-3 he can exit a Spade and make 9 tricks. But if he tries that and Spades turn out to be 4-2, there is the danger that the defense will draw his last trump and cash two Hearts, for just 7 tricks to Declarer and down one. The middle-of-the-road play is to leave the trumps out, and cash winners, letting them score their two trump tricks but no more, in which case Declarer makes 8 tricks. We’d be inclined to go for 9 in this situation, we’ll only regret that when South, the hand with the long Hearts, also has the long Spades. As it happens, North has the long Spades, so 8 tricks are made regardless of whether Declarer plays safe or fast-and-loose.
We would say that all the players acquitted themselves well in this part-score war, and that N-S were just plain unlucky to get caught in 2♥ doubled and vulnerable. This contract is down one for sure, and possibly two, so the N-S competitive effort was a spectacular failure on this board. But letting them play in 2♦ was no great bargain either, and in the long run we’d say that N-S selling out to 2♦ is the losing tactic … but not on this particular board!
East has a remarkably similar hand to the one he held on Board 18. Both hands have 18 HCP’s and a 6-card suit headed by the AKQ. But this hand is stronger (it has a singleton, a potential fit with Partner, and the highly useful Ten in the 6-card suit), and we would say it is worth a game-forcing jump shift to 3♣. Things got rather awkward after that, and the weak hand got end-played by the auction into using Roman Key Card … please see the Bidding Quiz for more on this most unimpressive auction!
The auction may not have been impressive, but there’s nothing at all wrong with the resulting contract, making +980 when the Spade finesse loses.
Many partnerships (such as the DONT players), are unable to Double 1NT to show a good hand. However, even if South’s methods did allow it, we do not think that this hand is worth a Penalty Double of a strong No Trump, it’s not quite good enough, and there is no obvious, safe, attacking lead for us to make.
When 1NT got around to North, the opponents had limited their combined assets to a maximum of 24 HCP’s, probably less, so Partner is marked with some values. Therefore, we would have no hesitation in bidding 2♠ with the North hand. And we would do the same if we were vulnerable.
In 2♠, we’d expect North to make 9 tricks most of the time … the only way that the defense can get a 9th trick is to engineer a Heart ruff, and that will require the opening lead of the A♥, a far from obvious defense.
Note For DONT Aficionados Back on Board 17, we initiated an empirical study into the effectiveness of perpetrating a DONT bid with 4-4 distribution. Before we proceed, let’s refine the parameters, and say that we shall be testing those 4-4 hands which meet these criteria: In Direct Seat: 10+ HCP’s when not vulnerable 12+ HCP’s when vulnerable In Balancing Seat: Any 4-4 hand Yes, pretty crude rules, we’ll admit, but there they are.
South’s hand here passes the test, and the 4-4 DONT Aficionado will be right there with her 2♦ bid. North will bid 2♠, and N-S will end up in 2♠, just as in the featured auction. So, another inconclusive result, we’ll call it a tie, and the score is now: DONT Aficionados 1 Solid Citizens 1
In first seat, do you pass the South hand? Or preempt? Or open 1♦? It’s a close choice, we would say, and largely a matter of personal style. The most likely final contract is probably some number of Spades by East, making 9 tricks.
A second seat Weak Two by North would have been altogether too much off-center, and eventually E-W found their way to game in Hearts.
If South leads a Spade, Declarer wins the King in his hand, crosses to the J♣, and leads a trump to the Queen and South’s King. Now, a shift to the K♦ is won by Dummy’s Ace, the A♠ is cashed (Declarer pitching a Diamond), followed by another trump. North wins the Ace, but the defense never scores a Diamond (Dummy’s losers disappear on the Clubs), and it’s 11 tricks for Declarer.
Does the defense go better if South’s opening lead is the K♦? Now Declarer is in danger of losing a Diamond and a Diamond ruff along with the A♥ and K♥. Clearly he must get rid of at least one Diamond loser before tackling trumps, and he has a choice: - Either, pitch two Diamonds from the board on the Clubs - Or, pitch one Diamond from hand on the Spades. Surely it is better to be in the over-ruffing position in Diamonds, which suggests the latter line of play. So, Declarer wins the opening lead, crosses to the K♠, then back to the J♣, and pitches a Diamond on the A♠. Now a Heart is led, and whether North jumps up with the Ace or whether she ducks, the defense can take only three tricks.
That N-S preempting put West to the test, and he guessed right to bid 5♠. No doubt East was tempted to bid on with his control-rich hand, but he recognized that West was under some pressure and so he gave Partner some latitude. That’s all well and fine, but we actually think that the preemption of North and South is more instructional, and we refer you to the Bidding Quiz for more on this.
In 5♠ it’s 11 tricks when the trump finesse loses. How about 5♦? That’s a good save at down three and -500, but pushing on to 6♦ would be -800 and one too many.
Would you make a positive response to 2♣ with the West hand, or would you require a better suit? We know that we would bid 3♣, but we’ll be the first to admit that it led to an awkward auction, as is usually the case with minor suit auctions after a 2♣ opening bid. Please see the Bidding Quiz.
It turns out that 6♣ is no more than a so-so contract … 12 tricks are possible if one opponent has Qxx of Hearts, or on various other Heart holdings (Q, Qx, Qxxx) when the A♦ is onside. We calculate this as no better than 49%, but the odds go up when we consider that South might well lay down the A♦ at Trick One, if she has that card.
Back to the bidding. Did East overbid? Perhaps he should have just opened 2NT, showing 20-21, no doubt he upgraded it to 22-24 on account of the 5-card suit, and then further upgraded when Partner bid his AKx suit.
A routine 2/1 auction gets E-W to their Heart game. South does not have a particularly attractive lead, and might well try the J♣. Fearing a singleton, Declarer will jump up with the Ace, play the A♥ and out a Heart and that will be 10 tricks. Things are no better for the defense on any other lead, and Declarer will rely on the double-hook in Clubs to bring home his contract.
Suppose that South bizarrely starts out with the Q♠, and further suppose that you have been told your very life depends upon your making 11 tricks. Then perhaps you might try this exotic (but contract-risking) line of play: Win the Spade opening lead with the Ace Cross to the A♥ Ruff a Spade Back to the A♦ Ruff a Spade Cash the K♦ Ruff the good Q♦! Ruff another Spade Exit a Heart North can cash her second Heart, but has been stripped of everything but Clubs. On the Club return, you must guess correctly to hop with the Queen. Now, you cross to the A♣ to cash the established Spade, and you will live to fight another day.
West’s 2♣ bid was Drury, that invaluable fit-showing tool for the Partners of light third-hand openers. But this time East had the real Tabasco and jumped to 4♥ without delay. Suppose that South leads a Diamond which is won by Dummy’s Ace. The finesse of the Q♥ loses to South’s King and another Diamond comes back. Looking at all 4 hands it’s clear that 11 tricks will be made with normal play, but we are going to doctor the N-S cards and give you a chance to demonstrate your flawless technique in Play Problem # 138.
Not much to the auction, and it’s over to Dr Goodlead, who is sitting East and being asked to find the killer against 3NT. Obviously it’s a choice between Spades and Clubs, and the Doctor gave this problem short shrift. We quote: “Partner has the points, and had the chance to overcall 1♠. He’s most unlikely to have 5 of them, nor even a chunky 4 if he bids the way that I do. If he has a suit, it’s Clubs, and that’s my lead”. Exactly!
Carding Agreement Note If, like the Doctor, you lead a Club, then the next question is “Which Club?” One agreement that is common in expert circles, is to lead the second highest when holding 4 small (this is just against NT contracts), this lead often gives Partner the best chance of figuring out what is going on, and warns Partner not to expect us to hold any high cards in the suit.
After South’s 1NT overcall, N-S were playing “systems on”, which in their case meant a Texas Transfer to 4♥.
East does not have an appetizing choice of opening leads. He won’t lead a Heart, and will probably try a Spade or a Club, each of which will give Declarer an easy 11 tricks, one way or the other. The lead which gives Declarer a chance to go wrong and make just 10 tricks, is a Diamond … Declarer wins the Ace, ruffs a Diamond, and picks up the Hearts … now, although the K♣ is onside there is still a danger of losing a Club, and the best chance of avoiding that loser is to ruff out the Diamonds, hoping for a 4-3 break. And, if it transpires that Diamonds are 5-2? Then Declarer can try to set up a Spade for the 11th trick by successfully guessing the whereabouts of the Ten.
A most convoluted auction for N-S, but the final contract is reasonable enough, down one on the filthy trump break.
How do you play that Jump Reverse by South? There’s a lot be said for this being a Splinter, and that was the treatment being used by N-S. More in the Bidding Quiz.
Most players avoid leading a singleton trump, that lead is notorious for picking up Partner’s Qxx or Jxxx. Suppose also that East avoids the disastrous Club lead, and starts out with the T♦. The trap that Declarer must avoid is to go after two Heart ruffs on the board … with the 3-1 trump break, Declarer will have trouble getting back to her hand, and will wind up with just 10 tricks. She does better to make do with one ruff, hoping to pick up her 11th trick in the minor suits.
What’s the percentage play in the Club suit? It’s to finesse the Ten, and then if that loses to the Jack to finesse the Nine. This brings in 3 tricks 68% of the time, but, alas for Declarer, this is one of the 32% occasions where only 2 tricks result. The other chance for an 11th trick is to ruff out the Q♦ and this also fails, so it seems to us that with proper play, after a Diamond lead (or a trump lead), just 10 tricks will be made. The route to 11 tricks involves cashing the A♣ and leading a low Club from the board (a low percentage play of just 29%).
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