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Hand Analyses February 28th, 2007
In terms of HCP’s, West has the best hand at the table, but he has no reason to get involved in the opponents’ forcing 2/1 auction. As for South, her Diamonds were way too good for her not to bid them twice, before finally showing Spade support.
It turns out that 4♠ is a most precarious contract. East will no doubt lead a Club to West’s Ace, and West does best to shift to the A♥, hoping that the defense can force Dummy to ruff, thereby shutting out the Diamonds. At this point Declarer has 3 reasonable lines on play: - Give up on the Diamonds and scramble 10 tricks by taking the Club finesse, and ruffing a Heart on the board. In this line, Declarer declines to take the Diamond finesse, and makes 10 tricks. - Finesse against East for the K♦. The finesse loses, and a Heart shortens Dummy’s trumps. The K♠ and Q♠ are cashed, then the A♦, then a Club finesse, and again Declarer has her 10 tricks. - Finally, Declarer might take a ruffing finesse in Diamonds after winning the K♥. West does best not to play the King on the second round, and now Declarer can go after 11 tricks by cashing K♠ and Q♠, taking the Club finesse, ruffing a Heart, then ruffing a Diamond with the Nine. Alas for Declarer, this is overruffed, but it’s still 10 tricks for Declarer.
There is an exotic and risky way of making 11 tricks. The ruffing finesse is taken, then the third round of Diamonds is ruffed with the Ace, followed by a finesse of the T♠, after which trumps are drawn and the Diamonds run.
Against 3♠, North leads the A♣ and, with no appealing shift, continues with a low Club which is ruffed on the board. Declarer must now decide whether to use this precious board entry to take the trump finesse or the Diamond finesse: - If he takes the trump finesse at Trick Two, he’ll lead a low one, knowing that, if the Jack loses to the Queen, then the Ten will be an entry back to the board for Diamond finesse … he’ll then need the K♦ to be doubleton on-side, or if it is tripleton that South will also have the last trump (South would have to be 3-1-3-6 or 3-2-3-5). - If he takes the Diamond finesse at Trick Two, North can be a star by ducking! If Declarer takes the Diamond finesse again then North wins, gives South a ruff and it’s down one. Nice defense!
Back to the bidding. Should South have competed on to 4♣? It’s rather dangerous. She can count her side for 10 Clubs, but it’s quite possible that the opponents have only 8 trumps for their auction, so we’d say that there is not much safety at the 4-level, especially against trigger-happy opponents … down one doubled for -200 will be a disaster, of course.
As East, would you or did you compete with 2♣ over 1♦ or 1NT? Many would, but we wonder if it is such a good idea when vulnerable with that crummy suit and shapeless hand, and those modest values. If East competes directly over 2♥, who would blame West for trying 2NT, at which point E-W are destined for -200 or worse. If East competes with 2♣ over 1NT, then West will no doubt show some restraint, but even 2♣ is too high, and will be down at least one.
1NT plays rather well for North, considering the shortage of HCP’s. East leads a Club, and Declarer quickly comes to 7 tricks via 2 Spades, 3 Diamonds and 2 Clubs. Does the defense do better to start a Spade? No, the play goes like this: Spade Nine to Declarer’s Queen Lose a Heart to East Another Spade ducked by Declarer (necessary) A Spade won by Declarer’s Ace Heart to East’s Jack Diamond won by Declarer Heart to West’s Ace The Spade is cashed Now, Declarer has 3 tricks, with the two Diamonds, a Club, and the 13th Heart still to come.
West may have had 5-card Diamond support, but with all those HCP’s in the enemy suit this was not a good hand for a preemptive 4♦. By the same token, South would no doubt have gone to game if her own values were less concentrated in Diamonds.
Against 3♦, East leads the Q♠, won on the board. Now a successful Heart finesse (West has no reason to split his honors), a Club to Dummy’s Queen, another Heart but this time West does split, and eventually the defense will arrange a Club ruff. Making 9 tricks.
At first glance, the lead of the A♦ might appear bad for the defense, setting up a Spade pitch. But if Declarer gets greedy and tries to take advantage of the pitch she’ll lose control of the hand and wind up with just 8 tricks!
Post Script We don't like that 2♦ at all, would much rather Double, perhaps a more "normal" auction would be: West North East South Pass 1♥ Dbl 1♠ 2♦ 2♥ 3♦ 3♥ Pass Pass Pass
Now here’s an interesting auction! What does North’s Double show? Clearly not Responsive, N-S have already found a Spade fit. No, it’s just showing a good hand. How good, and what hand-type? Here are some hands that she won’t have: - It won’t be distributional, with such a hand she would bid game or make a game try. - Surely not a 6th Spade, that would call for some number of Spades or a game try - Not a 1NT opening bid
What does that leave? We’d say 5-3-3-2 type of shape, and whatever North thinks is too good to open 1NT. Now, over to South. She also has a nondescript shape, and no real reason to bid on to the 3-level. This is a hand where Total Trick logic works to perfection: - We have 8 trumps (if we believe Partner’s bidding, as of course we always do) - They have 8 trumps (again, if we believe Partner) - Therefore there are 16 total trumps and a reasonable expectation of 16 total tricks - We have the preponderance of HCP’s by far, and may be able to make game - If we can make 10 tricks, they can make but 6, and the resulting +500 (defending 3♥ doubled) is better than our game - If we can make 9 tricks, they can make 7, and +300 beats our 3♠ part-score - If both sides can make 8 tricks, then again we want to defend at the 3-level - Finally, if they really can make 9 tricks with their 8-card fit and puny HCP total, then all we have to say about that is “Rats!”
Against 3♥ doubled, South might be advised to lay down the K♠, getting a look at Dummy and retaining the lead for a devastating shift. But no such devastation is required, it’s a routine down two regardless, +300 and a well-earned top board for N-S.
Post Script Many pairs play Maximal Doubles, a useful and recommended treatment whereby North's Double is a game try ... please follow the link for more on this.
East may have just 14 HCP’s but is excellent value for that jump rebid to 3♥. In 4♥, Declarer will score 12 tricks one way another: - If the defense starts with two rounds of Spades, Declarer can merrily cross-ruff the whole hand. - If the defense cashes one Spade and shifts to a trump (or leads a trump on the go), then Declarer can set up the Diamonds.
Even your Wednesday Game analysts blenched at the thought of a vulnerable 2♠ opening by South, or a 3♣ preempt by North, and eventually East became Declarer in 3NT.
East makes 9 tricks in his 3NT contract, as demonstrated in Play Problem # 133.
South may have had the right hand-type for an Unusual No Trump, but not the right strength, so she chose to bid her suits separately.
Playing in Diamonds, East will make 10 or 11 tricks, depending on his Queen-guessing abilities. This one should be quite an easy guess, however, as South has shown a two-suiter, and it seems reasonable to play her for 2-5-1-5 distribution, though it’s not a certainty, 1-5-2-5 is also a possibility, even 2-5-2-4. Should E-W have bid the game? Maybe East could have tried 4♦, but don’t let’s forget how obliging it was of West to show up with the J♠!
West’s 2♦ was an Inverted Raise, showing a limit raise or better in Diamonds, and denying possession of a 4-card major. What would you do now as East? You could futz around by bidding 2♥ or 2♠, of course, scientifically bidding your way to the almost inevitable 3NT contract. Our featured East preferred to jump directly to 3NT (showing 18-19) without any messing around, reluctant to tell the opponents too much about the hand, and reassured by the fact that Partner usually has something in Clubs on this auction (he has denied the majors, after all). But rebidding 3NT is not purely a stealth maneuver, it’s a good way for East to convey his considerable extra values … if he were to bid 2♥ or 2♠, and then West were to bid 3♣, what next? … it’s far from obvious how the auction should proceed from there.
Anyway, almost regardless of the auction, we don’t see many Norths or Souths leading a Club against 3NT and with any other lead it will be 12 tricks for Declarer.
Back to the bidding. Perhaps, on second thoughts, West should have made a slam move over 3NT, he does have a rather nice hand, considering that Partner has 18-19. The problem is that he does not have a particularly convenient slam try. 4♠, 4♦, 4NT, Minorwood, Redwood, 6♣, take your pick, we don’t like any of them! Nor do we have any good alternative suggestions. Some hands are just plain difficult.
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