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Hand Analyses 21st February, 2007
An uninspiring start to this week’s set, 2♥ is destined to go down one thanks to the bad trump break.
Post Script Yes, we admit that we would have opened the East hand 1♥, those Hearts look close enough to 5-card suit to us.
West’s 2NT was the Jacoby 2NT, showing a game-forcing raise in Hearts. 3♣ showed shortness, and that was a major turn-off to West … he had a little bit extra, but almost half of his HCP’s were opposite shortness, a serious damper on his hopes for slam.
Against 4♥, on opening lead, South will probably lead a Spade, hoping for a ruff. Not unreasonable, Partner might have the A♠ … or else, we might later get in with the K♥ and find our way over to Partner’s hand for the ruff. Two ways to win! As it happens, neither way comes to fruition, and 4♥ makes with an overtrick. A flat board if ever we saw one.
Those who like their Weak Twos to have two of the top three honors in the trump suit will no doubt be aghast at South’s bidding, but in her defense we’ll point out that she is White vs Red and that she did pay her entry fee. When the bidding gets around to East he has no good options. Even if his methods allow a natural 2NT here (some partnerships play this as artificial and forcing) he does not have the values for such a bid, and he has nothing but three-baggers in the unbid suits. In the circumstances, East might as well pass, hoping for one of these three good things to happen: - Either, E-W can make game and somehow manage to beat 2♠ by a whopping 4 tricks (unlikely). - Or, E-W can make only a part-score and will get more than adequate compensation by beating 2♠ by two tricks. - Or, nobody can make anything, and just going plus is a decent board.
As it happens, E-W can make 3NT, so, if South is to be taught a sharp lesson and if a blow is to be struck for sound preempts, then E-W must hold Declarer to just 4 tricks. Can they do it? It will be a close run thing and our money is on South to scrape up 5 tricks at most tables. Having said that, 9 tricks are available to the defense, but only if they find this obscure and well-timed sequence of plays: The defense cashes three rounds of Clubs A♠ is cashed A♥ is cashed 4th round of Clubs, East pitching a Diamond, South ruffing K♦, ducked by West (key play) J♠ losing to East’s Queen Diamond won by West’s Ace Diamond ruff That’s 8 tricks for the defense with a top trump still to come. A difficult defense to find, even looking at all 4 hands.
On the previous board (barring almost miraculous defense) South got away with her flimsy 2♠ preempt. No doubt emboldened by that triumph, North makes a rather aggressive (some would say egregious) 3♣ preempt. We know that we would be tempted to do the same, but perhaps this one is a little bit too much! The suit is crummy, N-S are vulnerable, and North is in second seat (absolutely the worst seat for dubious preempts).
Anyway, let’s say that North does open 3♣, and that East competes with 3♥. Yes, of course, he wishes he had a 6th Heart for this bid, but it hardly seems right to double with such a disparity in the major suits. Now, South bids 3♠, hard not to, game is still on the N-S horizon, and South has some safety in Clubs if Partner dislikes Spades. It turns out that it is West who likes Spades! He especially likes the thought of 3♠ doubled, and +800. North bails out to 4♣, which also gets doubled, and retribution for the flimsy preemptors is at hand! E-W will score 4 or 5 tricks (depending on how Declarer tackles trumps), and +200 or +500 will be enough for close to a top.
After the 1NT opening, with that game-going hand with 5-4 in the majors, the most common approach is to use Stayman. If Opener bids a major then South bids game, otherwise she jumps to the 3-level to show the 5-card major, offering a choice to Opener. For a wrinkle to this sequence, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Declarer has two Diamond losers and the question is whether she can come to 11 tricks. It’s a piece of cake if trumps are 2-2, Declarer simply ruffs a couple of Hearts in his hand. Even with trumps 3-1, 11 tricks should come home … East’s only safe lead is a trump, and now the appearance of the J♠ allow Declarer to get two ruffs in her hand before drawing trumps, she ruffs the first one low and the second one high.
Did you ever see an emptier hand than the one East has here? No Tens, no Nines, not even an Eight. Not withstanding the 2 ½ quick tricks, this is certainly not a hand to be opened, in our view. In fact, our featured East even took things a step further … when the bidding got back to him he responded 1NT, supposedly showing 6-10 HCP’s.
1NT is quite high enough. South leads a Spade, and Declarer is able to score 7 tricks by way of the K♠, 3 Hearts, and 3 Clubs.
Back to the bidding. As North, would you have balanced over 1NT with a non-vulnerable 2♥ bid? We confess that we would have done, in which case we had better hope that E-W don’t have on their doubling shoes, because 2♥ and 2♠ are both destined to fail by two tricks.
East’s 3♥ bid was somewhat risky, under the circumstances … E-W are vulnerable, and with both West and North short in Spades, it is North who is sitting in the over-ruffing position. This has all the hallmarks of a hand that will not play well, and although we have sympathy for the 3♥ bid, it was lucky to escape a Double.
The question in 3♥ is whether Declarer can avoid a two trick set. South does not have an appealing lead, we suppose that we would either lead a trump, or else lay down the A♣ and then shift to a trump. Either defense holds the Spade ruffs in Dummy to one, and then when trumps break badly Declarer can come to no more than 7 tricks. Minus 200 even without the Double!
Double Dummy Note Deep Finesse tells us that Declarer can make 8 tricks in 3♥, and it took us a while to figure out how. Say that South leads a trump to the Ten, Jack and Ace. Now, instead of going for a ruff, Declarer leads a low Diamond towards the board. South wins and cannot continue trumps, so she leads a Club to North’s King. North continues with trumps which sacrifices her trump trick but stops the Spade ruff and also cuts off Declarer from Dummy’s K♦. Declarer has to guess correctly the trump situation and finesse, of course, which gets him to 7 tricks. Now, he leads a Club to South’s King, and South must shift to a Spade. Declarer wins the A♠ and exits a Spade. Bingo! The Spade suit is blocked, and whatever the defense does they will have to surrender the 8th trick in one suit or another.
After that 3♥ preempt, South was resolved to play this one in slam, and her sequence offered North a choice between 6♣ and 6♠.
Against 6♣, West will no doubt lead a Heart, won by Dummy’s Ace. With trumps 3-1, Declarer can count 11 tricks easily enough … 5 trumps and a Spade ruff on the board, plus a Spade, a Heart and 3 Diamonds. For the 12th she must rely on an extra Diamond trick, and correct play, after drawing trumps, is to cash the Diamonds, ruffing the 4th round and setting up the trick while Dummy still has an entry via the Spade ruff. Yes, it’s true that the K♠ also turns out to be an entry, but why take that chance?
Perhaps you would have made a more vigorous preempt in the East seat with that 8-card suit. The featured East chose to lay up with a 3♥ bid, but suppose that he had gone for the gusto and bid 4♥. If that gets doubled, we’d expect Declarer to misguess Hearts and go for -500 … beating those E-W pairs who defended 6♣, but losing to those who defended a game contract. The question is, in the face of this high-level preempt, can N-S still get to 6♣? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
In defense of that vulnerable 2♣ overcall, let’s acknowledge that East has a 6-card suit and good trump fillers. But the bid is certainly minimum, some might say sub-minimum. West’s 2♦ was bid in the hope that Partner could show a 4-card major, and when that happened West settled conservatively for 3NT.
As it happens, West might as well have bid the slam, it’s an unusual hand where game and slam have equal chances of success! The play could go one of two ways, both of which involve pain and suffering for North. First, let us suppose that North decides against a Diamond lead, not wishing to give up an immediate trick to the K♦. So, North leads a safe Spade instead, won in Declarer’s hand. Declarer successfully takes the Club finesse, and now, before he runs the Club suit, he should take the precaution of cashing the Spades. Now we come down to this ending, with one Club still to be played: North ♠ ♥ KT ♦ AQ ♣ Declarer Dummy ♠ ♠ ♥ AQ ♥ J ♦ K5 ♦ 92 ♣ ♣ 5 South Immaterial On the play of the last Club, Declarer pitches a Diamond and North is caught in a Strip Squeeze. If she pitches a Heart then Declarer scores two Hearts. If she pitches a Diamond, then she gets thrown in with a Diamond and has to lead a Heart into Declarer’s AQ. Twelve tricks!
It could be even worse for North! Suppose that she leads a fourth-best Diamond, to South’s Jack and Declarer’s King. Now, the play follows similar lines to before, except that the squeeze is slightly different: North ♠ ♥ KT ♦ A ♣ Declarer Dummy ♠ ♠ ♥ AQ ♥ J ♦ 5 ♦ 9 ♣ ♣ 5 South | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
