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Hand Analyses 10th January, 2007
3NT by South will no doubt be the universal contract, and much will depend on the opening lead … Declarer has two tricks in each suit, and (with the Club finesse losing) is searching for a 9th. Nobody would lead a Diamond on this auction, but there is something to be said for each of the other suits and we’ll look at them in turn.
The 9♠ lead looks relatively safe and we might well catch East with a good Spade holding sitting over Dummy’s 4-card suit. Alas, it turns out quite disastrously, handing Declarer a third Spade, and 9 tricks altogether. Even so, careful timing is required: 9♠ covered by the Ten, Jack and Ace Club to the Ten and Queen Heart to the Jack, and Queen, Dummy ducking (necessary if Hearts 4-3) Low (!) Heart to the Ace Club to West’s Ace Heart to Dummy’s King Spade finesse Knock out the A♦ Fortunately, the A♦ is not with the long Hearts and that’s +400 for Declarer.
West might well choose an opening lead of a Heart, but not the Ten! Partner has a maximum of two Hearts on this auction (South will not have a singleton), so it won’t be possible to pick up the J♥ if it’s in Dummy. Therefore, if we must lead a (dangerous) Heart, we’d lead the fourth-best Seven, hoping that East has the Jack, or that East has a high honor and South the Jack. Not that it makes the slightest bit of difference on this hand, any Heart is equally disastrous, giving Declarer her 9th trick.
At IMP’s we would certainly lead the A♣, it looks like the most promising chance of beating the contract. It also seems highly likely to blow a trick, a major deterrent at matchpoints. Here, the lead works like a charm! It attacks the enemy’s strongest suit, but gives up nothing. Suppose that West cashes A♣, passively continues a Club to East’s Queen, and East reasonably shifts to the T♦. Declarer wins, and can still count only two tricks in each suit. The 9th must come from a Heart finesse or 3-3 Spades, both of which fail. Along the way to defeat, it would be nice if Declarer could show off her fine technique by cashing a Spade, ducking the second round of the suit, later cashing a third round, and then, if the Spades do not break, trying the Heart finesse (this sequence of plays is the best way of combining chances in the suits, better than the immediate Heart finesse which gives Declarer only one chance). But entries do not permit the luxury of combining chances so Declarer must choose one suit or the other. A simple Heart finesse is 50%, and a 3-3 Spade break is only 36%, but here Spades gives Declarer a better chance because some of the 4-2 breaks also work (for example, Jx or Qx with East), bumping the odds to over 60%. Anyway, it’s all academic! That deadly opening lead of the A♣ will surely set the contract one trick.
Double Dummy Note: Yes, on the opening Club lead, the contract can still be made, but only by the unlikely play of leading the Ten of Spades from the board! East must cover, then the Nine falls on the second round, and Dummy’s Eight and Seven force a third trick in the suit. A winner here, but highly anti-percentage!
South was happy to let her partner play in 1NT, but was not about to let the opponents play in 2♠. In the circumstances, 3♦ was a reasonable shot, and that’s where matters rested. The play in 3♦ is most straightforward … K♠ lead won by the Ace, draw trumps, play on Clubs, eventually setting up the 13th Club for a Heart pitch. Making 5! The only way that the defense can hold Declarer to 10 tricks is if West leads Hearts on the go, establishing the defense’s Heart trick before the Clubs are set up … a most unlikely defense!
Back to the bidding. We had an editorial dispute about East’s role in this auction. “What role?” you ask, “He didn’t play one!” Precisely, but perhaps he should have done! East does have a pretty miserable hand, but he is White versus Red with 3-card support, and we hope that he was at least tempted to bid 2♠ over 1NT and then having failed to do so, that he was further tempted to try 3♠ later. If he had succumbed to one of these temptations he would have given his partner a chance to show off his Declarer skills, please see Play Problem # 117.
Normally, with a weak hand and 8 Clubs, a preempt of 4♣ would be enough, but here it is White versus Red, which is usually a good excuse to kick it up a notch. North did well not to bid 6♣, that would have been a shot in the dark. 5♣ makes just 11 tricks when West finds the obvious K♥ lead (and probably also if West doesn’t find that lead, unless South is a compulsive gambler and decides to risk her contract for an overtrick.
Suppose that South opens just 4♣. Now, as West, we would hazard a Double (and we use the word “hazard” advisedly), and, one way or the other, N-S will end up in the same 5♣ contract.
North almost has a perfect hand for Roman Key Card, if Partner has two Key Cards and the Q♠ that may well be enough. But there is one small snag … if Partner has 3 small Hearts there will be an inescapable loser in the suit. One possibility is for North to trot out Blackwood and, given the right answer, to take a shot at 6♠, banking on the Q♥ or doubleton Heart with Partner. The featured North went the cue-bidding route, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
Nothing to the play, East leads his 4th best Diamond and it’s 12 tricks.
In E-W’s Two Over One style, West’s first bid was the Forcing No Trump. Forced to say something, Opener’s prescribed rebid with that 4-5-1-3 shape is 2♣, but we really couldn’t bring ourselves to make that call. That magnificent 5-card suit looks almost like six, surely more descriptive than rebidding those moldy Clubs.
With 11 opposite 11, 2NT would usually be plenty high enough, but here Declarer has all of the Tens (the unsung heroes of so many NT contracts!), to say nothing of that most obliging major suit distribution.
South leads a Spade and Declarer’s Ace takes South’s King. Now when the Hearts break 3-3 Declarer can count 9 tricks. There are some obscure lines which might lead to 10 tricks (see below) but we predict 9 at most tables.
With careful play, North can be put under pressure in the end-game. We are not convinced that the following line should be attempted in actual play, but the ending is most pretty and well worth a look: Spade to the King and Ace Finesse the Spade Ten Club to the Jack and Queen Spade return, won by the Queen Cash 5 Hearts, pitching 3 Diamonds from Declarer's hand On the run of the Hearts North must find two pitches and is squeezed in three suits. The first pitch of a Spade is painless enough but the second pitch will be fatal to the defense. Here is the position, with one Heart left to play: North ♠ J ♥ ♦ K7 ♣ 93 Declarer Dummy ♠ ♠ 3 ♥ ♥ 6 ♦ QT6 ♦ 2 ♣ A4 ♣ T8 South ♠ ♥ ♦ AJ9 ♣ K6
When Dummy's last Heart is played, North is done for: - If North pitches a Spade, Declarer gets another Spade trick - If North pitches a low Diamond, she gets thrown in with a Diamond … now she can cash a Spade, but must then concede two Club tricks at the end - If North jettisons her K♦ (nice try!), a Diamond towards the Queen scores the extra trick - If North pitches a Club, Declarer leads the Club Ten from Dummy to score 2 Club tricks. It's a variation of the Guard Squeeze.
“Down one is good bridge” they say, which is no doubt why N-S competed to 2♠. And perhaps why East went on to 3♦. Also down one!
5NT was the Grand Slam Force, a bid that we get to use only two or three times a year. Here it puts in one of those rare appearances, as North makes the asking bid about Partner’s trump holding … West is being instructed to bid 7♠ if he holds two of the top three trump honors.
Against 7♠, suppose that North optimistically lays down the A♥. Now Declarer has 13 tricks provided that the Diamonds break 3-2, but it’s not a good idea to rely on that. So, at Trick Two, Declarer lays down the K♠ and gets the news about 4-0 trump break, finesses a Spade, ruffs another Heart, cashes AK♣ (pitching a Diamond), ruffs a Club, draws trump, and claims 13 tricks. Ruffing the second Heart was an unnecessary precaution on the actual lie of the cards, but still the correct way to play the hand.
Suppose next that North has more respect for East’s bidding, and does not start with the A♥, but instead tries a minor suit card. Nice lead! But Declarer can still prevail, he’ll give up on Heart ruffs and ruff out the Clubs instead, eventually scoring: 4 rounds of trumps 2 Club ruffs in his own hand 3 Club tricks (AK and the long Club) 4 Diamond tricks
After the E-W transfer auction fizzles out, South may have been tempted to balance with 3♣. That would be quite a bold effort on such a shapeless hand, but might work out quite well on the actual deal … it’s unlikely to get doubled (down two), so West must save the day by bidding on to 3♠. Should he? Perhaps. He doesn’t have the 4th Spade, but he does have almost half of his HCP’s in the suit, and a ruffing value in their Club suit.
Playing in Spades, Declarer makes 9 tricks easily enough. If the defense attacks with trumps, trying to stop the Club ruff on the board, then Declarer counters by going after Hearts at Trick Two. And if the defense starts with Clubs, then Declarer does get his Club ruff.
This board will afford some tables with the opportunity for a coffee break. It turns out that it is N-S who need to get into the bidding, they are the pair that can actually make something. South may well try a light 3rd seat opening, which will probably get them to 1NT for +90. And if South does open, and E-W compete to 2♥, then you can | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
