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Hand Analyses 3rd January, 2007
A tame start to the New Year! West makes his first, but no doubt not his last, light opening bid of 2007, and North arrives in 3NT via a transfer sequence (playing “systems on” after a 1NT overcall).
Against 3NT, East leads the 7♥, “top of nothing”. Put yourself in the West seat. What do you play at Trick one? - if you cover the Ten with an honor, you will hand Declarer 3 Heart tricks, which may be enough to take her to 11 tricks; - if you play small, Declarer will be able to score just two Hearts, but the downside for the defense is that she scores those two tricks without having to lose one.
It turns out that the winning choice is to play an honor at Trick One, making sure of a Heart trick for the defense, and two altogether. If West plays low at Trick One, Declarer makes a surprising 12 tricks … 2 Spades, 2 Hearts, 5 Diamonds and 3 Clubs.
Next, let’s look at the Diamond suit. Declarer leads the Q♦ which holds. What should Declarer do on the second round of Diamonds? Lead the Jack hoping to pin the doubleton Ten in the West hand? … or lead a low Diamond, hoping for doubleton King in the West hand? Either could work, but the percentage play is to lead the Queen. Why? Because with Kxx of Diamonds East is unlikely to cover … with Kx of Diamonds he probably will in order to promote Partner hoped for Ten (as in the actual deal).
Here’s another skimpy opening bid, this time by South. There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with a partnership style which opens these marginal hands, but here are a couple of corollaries to that style: - When South opened 1♥ with this minimal hand she did so based on her 5-4 distribution, and it follows that her second bid should be to show that second suit, rather than to rebid 1NT. Don’t think the Diamond suit is worth bidding? Maybe not, but in that case the hand was not worth opening! - Facing a Partner who opens light (with hands like the South one), we need a little bit extra to bid game … on the actual deal, North has a decent 12-count, but we would not stretch this to game opposite a frisky opener, we would merely invite.
2NT is quite high enough and 8 tricks are likely to be made on either a Club or a Diamond lead, when Declarer gets the Hearts going.
A difficult hand for N-S! The first five bids were simple enough … that 2♥ was Fourth Suit Forcing, let’s assume to game … then South’s 3♣ confirmed at least 5-5 in the minors. Now North is in a truly awkward situation. No suit has been agreed, North has extras, and South may or may not have extras … does this hand belong in Clubs, Spades, or No Trump? … in game or in slam? We discuss this in more detail in the Bidding Quiz, for the time being let’s just say that 3♥ was intended as a temporizing bid.
West will no doubt lead the Q♥ against 3NT, and South will figure that she is just a successful Club finesse away from making 12 tricks. However, the Club finesse loses and then Diamonds break 5-1 and that holds her to just 10 tricks.
West did well not to get too excited with his square 10-count, and E-W came to rest in a cozy Heart part-score, making 9 tricks. But it was unfortunate for N-S that North was taking a nap during the auction. Yes, we like a 3♣ preempt with that beefy (well, almost) 6-card suit and nice shape. Here’s what is likely to happen:
West North East South Pass 3♣ 3♥ Pass 4♥ Pass Pass Pass
After that 3♣, it’s hard to fault the E-W auction, the preempt just bounced them into a hopeless game.
Another light opening and another restrained sequence by Responder. With 5-5 shape and 12 HCP’s opposite an opening bid, one would usually be going to game somewhere or other, but South’s hand is Aceless and has apparent wastage with that singleton K♠. In 3♦ there are 4 obvious losers, so staying out of 3NT or 5♦ will be rewarded with a good board.
A nice 2NT bid by East … as a passed hand this bid can hardly mean anything other than the minors, and that enables E-W to settle into a comfortable Club partial.
Against 3♣, North leads a Heart, ruffed in Dummy. Declarer plays on Diamonds immediately, and it turns out to be 10 tricks when both minors behave.
The first time around East declined to double with minimum values and only 3 Spades, but he could hardly resist balancing with a Double of 2♥. With that extra Heart South was always going to push on to 3♥ and was quite right to bid it immediately, rather than give the opponents a chance to find their own fit.
The N-S hands fit well and 10 tricks can be made, the defense being unable to stop two Spade ruffs on the board … even a Heart opening lead does not help, as West is unable to get back in to lead the third round a trumps.
How to bid those opening hands which are 4-5 in the minors has become a recurring theme in The Wednesday Game and we go there once again in the Bidding Quiz, which is where we also explore the N-S sequence.
4♠ is a fine contract. There are two Aces to be lost and the real question is whether or not Declarer can muster up 11 tricks. Two lines present themselves: - Set up the Diamonds … this will require 3-3 Diamonds or doubleton Jack and trumps 2-2, more adverse splits will be impossible to handle. - Try two ruffing finesses in Clubs, making 11 tricks when West has both the Ace and the Queen. If there was any doubt as to the better line that disappears the moment West leads a low Heart, to East’s Jack and Declarer’s Queen. Now, East is marked with the A♥ and J♥, which leaves just 12 enemy points unaccounted for … surely West needs them to justify the opening bid and will hold ♣AQ. So, Declarer wins the Q♥, leads the K♣ covered by the Ace and ruffed, crosses back on a trump and takes another Club ruffing finesse, for 11 tricks.
Over 1NT, North might have been tempted to bid 2♥, and that would work out rather well on the actual deal. But, it’s a dangerous bid with such poor Heart spots and with East likely to be sitting over with 4 of them, so we don’t fault North for passing.
Against 1NT North will no doubt lead a low Spade, after which Declarer knocks out the A♣ and takes 7 easy tricks. Deep Finesse tells us that it is possible to beat 1NT, do you see how? Yes, North must find the astonishing opening lead of the K♥! This pins Declarer’s Queen and allows the defense to score 4 Hearts, 2 Spades, and a Club.
Suppose that West passes the Double, trying for a penalty. How does 1♠ doubled fare? It’s possibly down two which would be a fine board for E-W except for one small detail. North will not play it there when she can try another 5-card suit … she’ll bail out to 2♥, hoping that this is not a case of out of the frying pan into the fire. She gets lucky when Declarer shows up with 3 Hearts, and 2♥ produces 8 tricks. And even if North decides to take her lumps in 1♠ doubled, she may well get out for down one
Yes, we are all in favor of that 1♥ opening. With West’s minimum opening values opposite a passed hand the odds are that N-S will buy the contract, so why not tip off East to the most promising opening lead?
As it happens, West ends up on lead himself against 2♠ and starts out with the A♥. Suppose that West now shifts to the J♠. Declarer wins the K♠, cashes A♣ and leads a low Club won by East’s King. East continues with another trump, and now it’s all down to the play of the Diamond suit, the two obvious ways of trying for 3 tricks being: - Lead towards the AJ, hoping that West holds Kx or Qx or KQx or that either player has KQ - Lead away from the AJ, hoping that East has Qx or Kx (if East jumps up with his honor then West is finessable, and if East plays low his own honor drops on the next round) or West has the KQ doubleton. The first line is the percentage play, but if Declarer is persuaded (perhaps by the trump break) that East is more likely to be short in Diamonds, then the second line becomes more attractive. We are not convinced that the evidence is strong enough to try the more exotic second line, but if you found it you scored 10 tricks and no doubt a top board.
Carding Note: Nowadays, against suit contracts, most players lead Ace from Ace-King. Partner will typically high-low with a doubleton or with the Queen, expecting the leader’s Ace to be backed up with the King. This works out just fine because usually the Ace is with the King, the leading of unsupported Aces having been added to our list of “Things Not To Do” at an early stage in our bridge development.
But there are always exceptions, of course, and when our side has bid and raised a suit, it is far from uncommon to start with the lead of the unsupported Ace in that suit. This suggests the following lead convention: - if the suit has not been bid and raised (by the defending side), then we lead Ace from Ace-King, as usual; - if the suit has been bid and raised, then we lead King from Ace-King.
With this agreement, if the suit has been bid and raised, and the opening lead is the Ace, then this obviously denies the King, and Partner will typically give attitude based on the possession of the King rather than the Queen or doubleton.
On the actual hand, with this agreement, West would lead the K♥, and East would give Partner count … this is probably a good idea in any event, but all the more so when the Queen appears in Dummy.
There’s not a whole lot to be said about this one! Any one of the 4 players might have found a dubious way of getting into the auction, but this is a hand where passing works best and nobody can make much of anything.
South’s 1NT overcall shows 15-18 HCP’s in most partnerships … and also something in Spades, of course. South’s hand fits that description, but it’s not exactly ideal, because it also fits the description of a take-out Double … short in their suit, support for the unbid suits. What’s your choice? We are not sure that there is a right answer, but please see the Bidding Quiz anyway!
On the actual hand, the 1NT overcall is the winner, allowing N-S to go plus in 1NT. Eight tricks will be made unless East is a superstar, and South isn’t. West will lead a Spade, won by Declarer … now a Heart to the King and a Diamond from the board … if super-star East nonchalantly plays low, surely most Souths will finesse the Ten and be held to just 7 tricks.
And, if South decides to double 1♠? North will bid 2♦, planning to compete to 3♣ if necessary, thereby giving South a choice of the minors. Over 2♦, North will rebid 2NT, ostensibly showing 19-20 but still the most descriptive bid here … North will bid the No Trump game and it will be a minus score for N-S.
South’s 2♦ was “New Minor Forcing”, a commonly used device for checking back for a major suit fit after Opener’s 1NT rebid. As it happens, there is no such fit and 3NT becomes the final contract.
The obvious lead from the East hand is the 9♥. How did you Norths play this contract? If Hearts are 4-3, the contract can be made by playing on Diamonds … Declarer hopes that the first Diamond is won by West, but East shows up with the Ace, shoots through another Heart and Declarer is held to 9 tricks, losing 2 Diamonds and 2 Hearts.
Can Declarer do better? Yes! Play low from the board on the opening trick and win it with the King … then play a Spade towards Dummy, planning to duck the trick to West (the “safe” hand, the one that cannot attack Hearts profitably). However, East plays the Ten, so Dummy’s Ace wins the trick. Now a Club to the Ace and another Spade, again planning to duck … but this time East’s Queen appears, so now Declarer can win this and establish his Spades for one loser by leading the Nine. Making 10 tricks. This line is not as safe as simply playing on Diamonds, but offers lots of potential for 10 tricks and is only likely to make less than 9 if West has a doubleton Spade honor, and East has the A♦, and the Q♦ is in the hand containing the long Heart.
Was East’s 1♥ a psyche? Not really, let’s call it an improvisation! East is opposite a 3rd hand opener, so Partner may well be somewhat light, as Partners so often are in that position. Consequently, it would be dangerous to jump to 2NT showing 11-12 … whenever we make that bid, Partner puts down his 8-count and says “It was just a lead-directing opener, try not to go down too many”. It would also be dangerous to lie by bidding only 1NT … just because Partner is in third seat does not mean that he has to be light, the computer has been known to deal quite sound openers to the third seat player … if we habitually lie by a couple of points, we’ll miss a few games. It may not be your own personal choice, but we like 1♥ here, the least dangerous bid in our view.
Anyway, after the 1♥ response, and Opener’s 1♠ rebid, East can hardly not bid 2NT now, and that is where he will play it. In theory this contract is down one, but it is not without hope. For example, South might lead a Heart, presenting Declarer with his 8th trick. Or, South might lead a passive Spade, and shift to a Heart when she gets in with the K♣. Or, North might get in with the Q♦ and not see the need to shift to a Heart … or, she might shift to a Heart but neglect to play the Ten. So, notwithstanding the double dummy result of down one, we’d predict success for Declarer more often than not.
We confess that we would have chimed in with a 2♥ opening by West (seduced by the favorable vulnerability), but we are well aware that this will not be to everybody’s taste. If West does open 2♥, he’ll play it there (East has a good hand but no reason to take a call) … and if West passes, he may well play it there anyway after the featured auction.
How does 2♥ do? It’ll be 8 or 9 tricks depending upon whether the defense engineers a Diamond ruff. It also requires that West play the Heart suit correctly, but that is not too difficult … when the A♥ fells the Jack (or Ten), West must play the Queen on the second round (not a low one), it’s the only chance to hold the trump losers to one.
You may have noticed that N-S can make 3♣. That does not necessarily mean that they should bid it, sometimes these things just happen. But, in the featured auction we would say that one of the N-S pair was clearly hibernating. Which one? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
“We Told You So” Footnote: You’ll notice that we accused N-S of hibernation only in the featured auction … in the “unfeatured” auction where West opens his slightly “out there” 2♥, N-S would have had no chance of getting into the bidding. Pardon us for pointing out that.
North had all the decisions to make here, and we have to say that we like her sequence with a most difficult hand: - North has 21 HCP’s, a 6-card suit and a singleton … even so this is not even close to being a 2♣ opener, it’s a 5-loser hand … 1♣ is plenty, if it gets passed out (most unlikely) she’ll probably be in a good spot; - North’s Double was a Support Double showing 3-card support for Partner’s Spades … this bid is purely about Spade support and says nothing about strength, it could be made on a bare minimum or a hand with significant extras, as here; - After East’s 2♠, West knows that her side should be playing in game (Partner did freely bid 1♠ and must have something), but which game? … she could bid 3♦ angling for 3NT, but the danger there is that Partner will bid 3NT and the defense will get the Diamonds going before the Clubs are established … 4♠ is possible, but that could work out badly if Partner has only 4 Spades … so we like the actual choice of 4♣, it’s not a bid that one encounters every day but the logical interpretation is that it asks Partner to choose between 4♠ and 5♣.
The play to 5♣ is straightforward enough: A♦ opening lead Spade shift, won by Declarer Club to the King Nine of Clubs, covered by the Ten and the Jack Spade to the King Club finesse That picks up the trump suit, but there is still a Heart to be lost, so it’s 11 tricks only.
Devious Defense Note: Looking at all 4 hands, one would wish to play this in 3NT making 11 tricks. But Declarer will only be looking at only two hands and a crafty East might contrive to lead her astray. Let’s say that South declares 3NT … West leads a low Diamond, East false-cards with the Ace … now a low Diamond back and who could blame poor South for inserting the Nine, being convinced that the K♦ is with West. Down one!
West’s 3♥ showed a limit raise or better … East might well have gone to game with his singleton in their suit and the extra trump, but then again he did have 3 apparently wasted points so he took the low road, after which West had plenty to go to game regardless.
In turns out that the K♥ was not wasted after all … the Hearts provide a pitch for one of the Club losers and 11 tricks are made.
Against 3NT East has that familiar but unpleasant task of having to lead into Declarer’s strong hand. East will probably select the K♣ … Declarer wins the Ace, and returns a Club to the Jack and Queen … now a third Club (attempting to disrupt Declarer’s communications) won by Dummy’s Seven. While this has been going on West has to find three discards and the best he can do is to pitch two Hearts and a Diamond. Now, it’s an easy matter for Declarer to score 3 Spades, 3 Hearts, 2 Diamonds, and 3 Clubs for a total of 11 tricks.
What is your own partnership agreement on that 3♠ bid by East? One common treatment is to send the message “I have a solid suit (presumably a minor), bid 3NT if you have the Spades stopped”. West does indeed have a Spade stopper (in fact that is all that he does have!) so he bids 3NT and scores 9 tricks on all sensible lines of play … needless to say, North must avoid an opening lead of a low Spade, but she can survive the A♠ lead and a shift as Declarer has no entries to his hand.
South might have passed the Double, but her Club spots were non-existent, and there was a good chance of making game, so she tried 2NT and ended up declaring 3NT. It looks like 9 tricks to us on all lines of play. How does 1♣ doubled do? Hard to say for sure, but it looks as if the defense might only get it for 500 which would not be enough.
North’s hand does not pass the Rule of Twenty but that guideline is not the only fish in the pond. We’d say that a 12-count with Ace-Ace-King is worth an opening bid, and obviously North thought likewise.
The play in 2♥ is likely to be uneventful. South will lead a Club presumably, and Declarer can wind up losing just 2 Hearts, a Club and a Diamond, making 9 tricks. But careful play is required, as follows: Club lead to the Queen and Ace Heart to the King (best shot at a Dummy entry) Spade finesse Cash A♠ and K♠ Ruff a Spade Club finesse Now, Declarer plays on trumps scoring +140 and a good board.
Walsh Addendum: If the N-S pair use Walsh-style bidding, the auction will go: West North East South 1♣ Pass 1♠ Pass 1NT Pass Pass 2♥ Pass Pass Pass The end-result may be the same, but the preemptive nature of the Walsh auction certainly makes life more difficult for the opponents.
A little bit of New Minor Forcing gadgetry followed by a Neanderthal leap to 6♥. Somewhat over the top we’d say, perhaps a more scientific approach would be to do some cue-bidding, making sure that there are not two Diamond losers, then checking for Key Cards. Our own preference would be for North to bid 3♠ (over 2♥), but only with a Partner who would be sure to read this as a Splinter bid.
Anyway, 6♥ is a marginal contract. If the defense grabs its Spade trick on the go, then Declarer will need to avoid a trump loser. The percentage play is to go for the drop, and that’s a 58% chance, one which comes in this time.
But, before Declarer plays on Hearts, East must make an opening lead. Obviously he will want to lead one of the unbid suits, in each of which he has worthless holdings. Any clues? Well, the odds slightly favor the lead of the shorter suit, on the grounds that the opponents are less likely to have shortness in that suit, and therefore that any winner that is established by the opening lead has more chance of standing up on the second round of the suit. It’s a small indication to be sure but that’s East’s only clue, so we’d lead a Spade against 6♥. This turns out to be the winner (though not for the reason given!) and will hold Declarer to 12 tricks. A Diamond lead, of course, will allow the Spade loser to disappear.
Note for Squeeze Enthusiasts: As we just noted, if the defense starts with Diamonds, Declarer can make 13 tricks … trumps are drawn, the Q♥ drops, the Spade goes on the Diamonds, and the 13th trick materializes when the Clubs are 3-3. But suppose that Clubs had been 4-2. Can 13 tricks still be made (after a Diamond lead)? Perhaps! If one opponent (presumably West, considering the opening lead) has AK♠ and the Club length, he will be squeezed in the black suits. The odds of this are somewhat slender but Declarer can also give the opponents a chance to go astray. She wins the Diamond lead, draws trumps, cashes the Diamonds pitching a Spade, and now leads the Q♠ … most Wests, holding the Ace, would see no reason not to play that card, how could it be wrong? Well, it’s wrong when East holds the K♠ and 4 Clubs, because West’s squandering of his Ace has “isolated the menace” in Spades and set up the black suit squeeze against his Partner.
A lively auction! North had a choice between introducing Hearts and raising Spades, and chose to show Splinter support (see Bidding Quiz), but the most interesting decision in our view came after East’s Double of that Splinter. The two questions here are: - Is South’s hand slam-suitable based on the bidding so far? - Having decided that, what are the respective meanings of Redouble, Pass, and 4♠? Which bids are encouraging, which are discouraging? By the same token, what is the difference, over West’s 5♦, of Pass and Double. For more on this, again please see the Bidding Quiz.
The above auction turns out to be well-judged, as 10 tricks is the limit for N-S and 5♦ doubled is down one for a good save.
West decided to jump shift into his 3-card suit in preference to rebidding 2NT with that worthless Heart doubleton. How about that 3♥ bid? It was intended as a “mark time” bid, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz. Then when West showed Spade support, it was a simple enough matter to check on Key Cards and settle on 7NT.
A pretty simple grand slam, eh? Well, yes, it is when West makes that 3♣ jump shift, but we would have to say that, in our opinion, 3♣ is something of an overbid. We would bid 2♣ instead (not 3♠ with 3-card support), which will lead us into a slightly more complicated auction: West North East South 1♦ Pass 1♠ Pass 2♣ Pass 2♥ Pass 2♠ Pass 3♠ Pass 4♣ Pass 4NT Pass 5♦ Pass 7NT All Pass 2♥ was game-forcing, so 3♠ was forcing (and stronger than 4♠), and the same optimal spot was reached.
After South’s 2♠ preempt, West is too good to bid a mere 3♣, he would have made that call with, for example, the same hand minus the K♦. So, 3♠ is a better choice, giving Partner the chance to bid 3NT with a Spade stopper.
The good news is that Partner does indeed have a Spade stopper, but it turns out that the 3NT contract is doomed anyway. South leads a Spade, the Clubs don’t come home, and it’s down two. But a normal result, nonetheless.
And now for what we consider to be the most interesting board of the entire set!
We feel strongly that East should do something in first seat with that hand, the only question is what? You’d get some votes for 1♦, 2♦ and 3♦, we prefer 1♦.
West also had an interesting problem at his first turn: - Not a Negative Double with only 3 Hearts - Not some number of No Trump without a Spade stopper - Not a cue-bid of 2♠, at least not if you play that this shows support for Partner - Which only leaves 2♣, a bid which normally shows a 5-card suit, but at least it has the benefit of being descriptive and forcing.
By the time that West comes to make his second bid his hand has improved quite considerably. For more on this please see the Bidding Quiz.
5♦ turns out to be spot on when the Club finesse loses but the Diamonds behave. N-S would have done well to push on to 5♠ for a profitable sacrifice but that was hard to find … North had made her bed when she bid 4♠, and South had enough defense to have hopes of beating 5♦.
We would be astonished if this testing board produces the same auction at two different tables in the room. With that in mind, let’s think of the featured auction as just one of maybe 100 possible sequences!
West might have rebid 1NT with those 18 HCP’s and stops in both the enemy suits. But, with only 3 cards in those enemy suits, surely this hand suggests playing in a suit contract. Is 2♣ enough? Maybe it’s a slight underbid, but rebidding 3♣ would suggest better Clubs, so our plan would be to go low with 2♣, planning 3♦ later if necessary. As it happens, East is able to raise Clubs and 5♣ is the final contract.
5♣ turns out to be most unfortunate, at least if North finds the obvious opening lead of a Heart. Now, because of the bad trump break, the hand proves unmanageable, even if Declarer manages to guess the Diamond situation.
Deep Finesse says that the unlikely contract of 6♦ can be made, and so it can, albeit with excellent guessing. Suppose that North leads the K♥ … now the bidding might persuade Declarer that South’s slender values must be in Spades (else why did she bother to bid?), that the K♦ is surely with North, and that, having bid Spades and Hearts, North is likely to be short in Diamonds. Therefore, if Declarer is so inclined, he will wrap up 6♦ thusly: Win opening Heart lead Cash A♠ and ruff a Spade Cross to the A♦ Ruff a Spade Ruff a Heart Low Diamond felling the King Ruff the Heart (or Spade) return Draw the last trump Cash ♣KQ Finesse the Club This line might be considered double dummy by some, but we have almost managed to convince ourselves that it makes sense!
North had a choice of two reasonable bids over 1♦ … either stretch to a 1NT overcall, or else pass while eagerly awaiting a reopening Double from Partner (planning to pass that, of course). North chose the latter course, East later made an SOS Redouble (“let’s find another spot!”), and then made a second Redouble (also SOS) sending a clear message that Spades and Clubs were the suits on offer. E-W eventually scrambled into 1♠ doubled.
In 1♠ doubled, the defense must lead trumps on the go (which they generally should on this type of auction), otherwise Declarer will escape for down one by going after two Diamond ruffs in Dummy … one of them will be overruffed, but he’ll end up with 3 Spade tricks, plus a Diamond ruff and two Aces.
Back to the bidding. Note South’s balancing Double on just 9 HCP’s. In this situation, that is plenty! The important thing for that Double is shortness in their suit, points are a relatively minor consideration.
There’s no truly satisfactory way to bid that 5-6 hand of North, please see the Bidding Quiz. As for South’s hand, her 2♠ bid would typically show 6 of them, but 5 chunky ones just about qualifies. 3♦ turns out to be too high, but the pain will ease when N-S realize that the opponents are cold for a large number of Clubs.
We shamelessly admit that we would open West’s hand 1NT … maybe it’s a tad strong, and there is that small detail of the Heart singleton, but we like the bid anyway, somehow it doesn’t look like much of a reverse to us. But the featured West clearly thought otherwise and made the mainstream 1♣ opening. 3♣ was natural and forcing, and East eventually settled for 3NT. In 3NT, it’s 11 easy tricks, even on the improbable Q♠ lead (Declarer simply ducks).
North did well not to get carried away with her shapely hand, it was a bit much to expect her preempting Partner to look after 3 of those 5 potential side-suit losers. So 4♣, furthering the preempt, was plenty. It’s hard to see how E-W can stay out of 4♥, which turns out to be a horror show. Getting out for down two will be a major achievement.
West’s 2♥ bid was the best of a bad job in our opinion, that ugly, square 11-count does not look like a limit raise to us. But when 3♣ got back to West he could hardly pass with those extra values. Double was the right way to get back into the auction, saying “I have extras, but only 3 trumps”. This gives Partner the option of making a penalty Pass if he has a suitable hand.
3♥ is probably down one, though it can be made with some brilliant guessing. But even down one is still better than letting them make their 3♣ contract.
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