|
Hand Analyses 20th December, 2006
A most unsuccessful auction by N-S, but one which is quite reasonable in our view. South’s Redouble showed good defensive values, and invited Partner’s opinion about defending. When 3♠ got back around to South it was normal to bid 4♥ with a 10-card fit, though the winner would be to double and collect a 300 penalty. 4♥ requires the Heart finesse, and when that fails it’s down one.
Post Script: Yes, indeed, East must have been tempted to Double 4♥, after all he does have a nice 17-count and a void in the enemy suit. If he does double what should West do? No doubt, he should just pass and hope for the best.
After this auction it seems normal enough for West to lead a Diamond. Declarer can count 7 top tricks, and the Spades and Clubs are the most promising source of extra tricks. It would be dangerous to take an immediate Club finesse … if it loses, West might continue Clubs, and the defense could set up a couple of Club tricks before a second Spade trick is established. Our suggestion would be the following line: Win the Diamond lead on the board Finesse the Spade Eight, losing to the King Win the Diamond continuation (best for the defense) in hand Cash 2 more Diamonds (East must part with 2 Clubs) Finesse the Spade Seven (if it loses, then the Ten will be a board entry) Lead Q♣ losing to West’s King Club return, won by Declarer’s Ace Cash J♣, pitching the T♠ from the board! (unblocking play)
At this point East can be counted for having started with precisely 4-2-2-5 distribution. How so? - Spades: Surely she started with Q9xx - Diamonds: Known to have started with two - Clubs: Known to have started with 5 (he pitched twice, followed suit thrice, and West also followed to three rounds) - Hearts: Ergo, he started with 2 Hearts. We have now arrived at a beautiful 4-card ending. As she contemplates her play for Trick Ten, South knows it’s a racing certainty that the remaining cards are as follows:
North ♠ -- ♥ J652 West East ♠ -- ♠ Q9 4 Hearts 2 Hearts South ♠ AJ ♥ A8
What could be simpler than to play A♥ and out a Heart at this point in the proceedings? If East wins the second Heart, he’ll be end-played in Spades for 10 tricks. If West wins the second Heart, we won’t score our A♠ but we’ll get the J♥ as compensation and it will be the same 9 tricks we would have got if we had lazily cashed our Aces and given up. Pretty clever stuff. But suppose that East drops a high honor under the A♥, let’s say the King. Suddenly we have a choice: - Did East start with ♥KQ, in which case we’ll exit a Heart and collect on the Spade end-play? - Or, did East make a brilliant play from Kx, in which case we should cash the A♠ and lead towards Dummy’s ♥Jx?
Well, our philosophy would be not to assume that East is a genius. No disrespect to East, it’s just going with the odds. And, if it turns out that he made a great play, then more power to him! Congratulate him and ask him what he’s doing next Wednesday!
Against No Trump, when leading from 4 small cards, some partnerships have the agreement that they lead the second highest, all the better for Partner to figure out what’s going on. With that agreement, here’s what you might lead from modest 4-card holdings: - 9543 (as above), or T543, lead the Five - J543, lead the Three (likewise if the honor is higher, of course) - T943 or 9843, lead the top card (the sequence is powerful enough) - 8743, lead the Seven (sequence unlikely to build tricks, so better to warn of weakness) - T843 or 9743, lead the second highest … and also second highest from all lesser holdings.
With 7 Diamonds and 3 Aces, this 3NT becomes a question of overtricks, and there are likely to be quite a few of them available. First of all, suppose that South leads a Club, presumably the Eight, a “top-of-nothing” lead. Declarer craftily plays the Jack from the board and if North succumbs to the natural temptation to cover with the Queen, Declarer will be handed 3 Club tricks and a total of 12 without the need for the Heart finesse. So, North plays low, and Declarer is up to 11 … he crosses to the A♦, and leads the Q♥, covered by the King and Ace, now he’s up to 12. But there won’t be a 13th, as the T♥ is offside and no squeeze can be developed.
Suppose next that South leads a fourth-best Spade. Now, East will show us whether he’s a Mouse or a Pig: - If East is a Mouse he’ll settle for a safe 11 tricks … he’ll play a low Spade from Dummy, winning the Ace … then he runs the Q♥, even if it loses it will be into the hand which cannot attack Spades profitably … but the Queen is covered by the King and Ace, and Declarer has his 11 tricks (he cannot risk the finesse against the T♥ because if it loses and a Club is returned his communications will be ruined and he’ll end up with only 10 tricks). - If East is a Pig, he’ll play the Q♠ at Trick One … if this loses to the King, it’ll be 9 or 11 depending on whether the Heart finesse works. However, the Q♠ holds the trick, Declarer crosses to the A♦, then the Q♥ is covered by the King and Ace. Declarer is up to 12 tricks already, and runs the Diamonds and cashes the A♠, in the process squeezing North in Hearts and Clubs. 13 tricks, no less! Oink, oink!
Actually, the odds clearly favor being greedy on this one. The safe line (low Spade from the board at Trick One) renders exactly 11 tricks pretty much all the time, whereas the greedy line gives the following (ignoring the surprising additional squeeze trick): 25% of the time (both major Kings with North) it’s 9 tricks 25% of the time (K♠ with North, K♥ with South) it’s 11 tricks 50% of the time (K♠ with South, K♥ anywhere) it’s 12 tricks.
We like the E-W auction but are not overly optimistic about the prognosis of 4♠. As so often is the case, much depends on the opening lead. What would be your choice? Dr Goodlead did not shine on this one! He could have led a passive Spade, but instead he decided to attack … left to choose between Hearts and Clubs he guessed wrong and tried a Heart … the only lead to let them make the contract! Opening leads, the toughest part of the game!
E-W did well to overcome the enemy preempting and get to 6♣, though perhaps it wasn’t really that difficult. After all, East has considerable extras, and West is quite slam-suitable … shortness in the enemy suit, side-suit Ace, long trumps.
The play in 6♣ looks so easy that it’s hard to see it not making at all tables. Maybe it will, but there is the scope for some carelessness on this seeming impregnable slam … Spade lead, three rounds of trumps, low Diamond to the King and Ace, and a low Diamond back. Oops! The Heart suit is blocked and Declarer cannot now arrange for a Diamond pitch on the 3rd round of Hearts. Needless to say, the ♥AQ must be cashed before touching Diamonds but it’s easy to make a lazy claim such as “I’ll draw the rest of the trumps and give you a Diamond”. What a waste of a nicely bid slam!
Total Tricks Note: Blind followers of the Law of Total Tricks will say “N-S have 10 trumps, why is North not bidding 4♠ directly over 2♣?” We think that is a bit much vulnerable on a hand with no distribution and no fewer than 10 losers! We’d love to be able to report that 4♠ goes for 1100 (more than the slam) but, sadly, this is not the case. The worst that 4♠ doubled will do is -500, which is worse than the enemy game but better than the slam, and probably something like an average board. Even more tragically, the extravagant 4♠ preempt might escape for down one and just -200, here’s how: Diamond lead to the Queen and Ace Diamond to the Ten and King Heart to the Queen Cash A♥ Club shift, ruffed J♦, pitching a Heart Yes, West had to win the first Heart with the Ace, return the Q♥ which is overtaken with the King, followed by a Heart ruff. That would be a nice recovery from the obvious but unfortunate Diamond lead. But not easy to find!
Do you think that North’s Pass of 2♠ was a tad conservative? Perhaps so, but as 17-pointers go her hand is not that wonderful … only 3 trumps and square shape are the big negatives. If North does invite (with 3 Spades) we’d expect South to go to game.
It turns out that game in Spades is not a great proposition, requiring the Q♦ onside and some luck in the Spade suit. Only one of those bits of good fortune materializes and it’s 9 tricks.
We are all in favor of South’s stopperless 1NT, please see the Bidding Quiz.
It turns out that South can make 9 tricks in No Trump, but with no small amount of luck. At the very least 3NT requires the onside J♦, and if the defense attacks Clubs from the go then Declarer will also need the Heart finesse (for entry purposes rather than for the extra trick).
East obviously subscribes to the theory that the less you have the more you bid. That majestic leap to 5♥ certainly puts the pressure on South and we would say that she has an awkward choice between 5♠ and 6♣ … please see the Bidding Quiz.
With the A♦ on-side, both 6♣ and 6♠ make (at least when played by South).
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
