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Hand Analyses 20th December, 2006
A most unsuccessful auction by N-S, but one which is quite reasonable in our view. South’s Redouble showed good defensive values, and invited Partner’s opinion about defending. When 3♠ got back around to South it was normal to bid 4♥ with a 10-card fit, though the winner would be to double and collect a 300 penalty. 4♥ requires the Heart finesse, and when that fails it’s down one.
Post Script: Yes, indeed, East must have been tempted to Double 4♥, after all he does have a nice 17-count and a void in the enemy suit. If he does double what should West do? No doubt, he should just pass and hope for the best.
After this auction it seems normal enough for West to lead a Diamond. Declarer can count 7 top tricks, and the Spades and Clubs are the most promising source of extra tricks. It would be dangerous to take an immediate Club finesse … if it loses, West might continue Clubs, and the defense could set up a couple of Club tricks before a second Spade trick is established. Our suggestion would be the following line: Win the Diamond lead on the board Finesse the Spade Eight, losing to the King Win the Diamond continuation (best for the defense) in hand Cash 2 more Diamonds (East must part with 2 Clubs) Finesse the Spade Seven (if it loses, then the Ten will be a board entry) Lead Q♣ losing to West’s King Club return, won by Declarer’s Ace Cash J♣, pitching the T♠ from the board! (unblocking play)
At this point East can be counted for having started with precisely 4-2-2-5 distribution. How so? - Spades: Surely she started with Q9xx - Diamonds: Known to have started with two - Clubs: Known to have started with 5 (he pitched twice, followed suit thrice, and West also followed to three rounds) - Hearts: Ergo, he started with 2 Hearts. We have now arrived at a beautiful 4-card ending. As she contemplates her play for Trick Ten, South knows it’s a racing certainty that the remaining cards are as follows:
North ♠ -- ♥ J652 West East ♠ -- ♠ Q9 4 Hearts 2 Hearts South ♠ AJ ♥ A8
What could be simpler than to play A♥ and out a Heart at this point in the proceedings? If East wins the second Heart, he’ll be end-played in Spades for 10 tricks. If West wins the second Heart, we won’t score our A♠ but we’ll get the J♥ as compensation and it will be the same 9 tricks we would have got if we had lazily cashed our Aces and given up. Pretty clever stuff. But suppose that East drops a high honor under the A♥, let’s say the King. Suddenly we have a choice: - Did East start with ♥KQ, in which case we’ll exit a Heart and collect on the Spade end-play? - Or, did East make a brilliant play from Kx, in which case we should cash the A♠ and lead towards Dummy’s ♥Jx?
Well, our philosophy would be not to assume that East is a genius. No disrespect to East, it’s just going with the odds. And, if it turns out that he made a great play, then more power to him! Congratulate him and ask him what he’s doing next Wednesday!
Against No Trump, when leading from 4 small cards, some partnerships have the agreement that they lead the second highest, all the better for Partner to figure out what’s going on. With that agreement, here’s what you might lead from modest 4-card holdings: - 9543 (as above), or T543, lead the Five - J543, lead the Three (likewise if the honor is higher, of course) - T943 or 9843, lead the top card (the sequence is powerful enough) - 8743, lead the Seven (sequence unlikely to build tricks, so better to warn of weakness) - T843 or 9743, lead the second highest … and also second highest from all lesser holdings.
With 7 Diamonds and 3 Aces, this 3NT becomes a question of overtricks, and there are likely to be quite a few of them available. First of all, suppose that South leads a Club, presumably the Eight, a “top-of-nothing” lead. Declarer craftily plays the Jack from the board and if North succumbs to the natural temptation to cover with the Queen, Declarer will be handed 3 Club tricks and a total of 12 without the need for the Heart finesse. So, North plays low, and Declarer is up to 11 … he crosses to the A♦, and leads the Q♥, covered by the King and Ace, now he’s up to 12. But there won’t be a 13th, as the T♥ is offside and no squeeze can be developed.
Suppose next that South leads a fourth-best Spade. Now, East will show us whether he’s a Mouse or a Pig: - If East is a Mouse he’ll settle for a safe 11 tricks … he’ll play a low Spade from Dummy, winning the Ace … then he runs the Q♥, even if it loses it will be into the hand which cannot attack Spades profitably … but the Queen is covered by the King and Ace, and Declarer has his 11 tricks (he cannot risk the finesse against the T♥ because if it loses and a Club is returned his communications will be ruined and he’ll end up with only 10 tricks). - If East is a Pig, he’ll play the Q♠ at Trick One … if this loses to the King, it’ll be 9 or 11 depending on whether the Heart finesse works. However, the Q♠ holds the trick, Declarer crosses to the A♦, then the Q♥ is covered by the King and Ace. Declarer is up to 12 tricks already, and runs the Diamonds and cashes the A♠, in the process squeezing North in Hearts and Clubs. 13 tricks, no less! Oink, oink!
Actually, the odds clearly favor being greedy on this one. The safe line (low Spade from the board at Trick One) renders exactly 11 tricks pretty much all the time, whereas the greedy line gives the following (ignoring the surprising additional squeeze trick): 25% of the time (both major Kings with North) it’s 9 tricks 25% of the time (K♠ with North, K♥ with South) it’s 11 tricks 50% of the time (K♠ with South, K♥ anywhere) it’s 12 tricks.
We like the E-W auction but are not overly optimistic about the prognosis of 4♠. As so often is the case, much depends on the opening lead. What would be your choice? Dr Goodlead did not shine on this one! He could have led a passive Spade, but instead he decided to attack … left to choose between Hearts and Clubs he guessed wrong and tried a Heart … the only lead to let them make the contract! Opening leads, the toughest part of the game!
E-W did well to overcome the enemy preempting and get to 6♣, though perhaps it wasn’t really that difficult. After all, East has considerable extras, and West is quite slam-suitable … shortness in the enemy suit, side-suit Ace, long trumps.
The play in 6♣ looks so easy that it’s hard to see it not making at all tables. Maybe it will, but there is the scope for some carelessness on this seeming impregnable slam … Spade lead, three rounds of trumps, low Diamond to the King and Ace, and a low Diamond back. Oops! The Heart suit is blocked and Declarer cannot now arrange for a Diamond pitch on the 3rd round of Hearts. Needless to say, the ♥AQ must be cashed before touching Diamonds but it’s easy to make a lazy claim such as “I’ll draw the rest of the trumps and give you a Diamond”. What a waste of a nicely bid slam!
Total Tricks Note: Blind followers of the Law of Total Tricks will say “N-S have 10 trumps, why is North not bidding 4♠ directly over 2♣?” We think that is a bit much vulnerable on a hand with no distribution and no fewer than 10 losers! We’d love to be able to report that 4♠ goes for 1100 (more than the slam) but, sadly, this is not the case. The worst that 4♠ doubled will do is -500, which is worse than the enemy game but better than the slam, and probably something like an average board. Even more tragically, the extravagant 4♠ preempt might escape for down one and just -200, here’s how: Diamond lead to the Queen and Ace Diamond to the Ten and King Heart to the Queen Cash A♥ Club shift, ruffed J♦, pitching a Heart Yes, West had to win the first Heart with the Ace, return the Q♥ which is overtaken with the King, followed by a Heart ruff. That would be a nice recovery from the obvious but unfortunate Diamond lead. But not easy to find!
Do you think that North’s Pass of 2♠ was a tad conservative? Perhaps so, but as 17-pointers go her hand is not that wonderful … only 3 trumps and square shape are the big negatives. If North does invite (with 3 Spades) we’d expect South to go to game.
It turns out that game in Spades is not a great proposition, requiring the Q♦ onside and some luck in the Spade suit. Only one of those bits of good fortune materializes and it’s 9 tricks.
We are all in favor of South’s stopperless 1NT, please see the Bidding Quiz.
It turns out that South can make 9 tricks in No Trump, but with no small amount of luck. At the very least 3NT requires the onside J♦, and if the defense attacks Clubs from the go then Declarer will also need the Heart finesse (for entry purposes rather than for the extra trick).
East obviously subscribes to the theory that the less you have the more you bid. That majestic leap to 5♥ certainly puts the pressure on South and we would say that she has an awkward choice between 5♠ and 6♣ … please see the Bidding Quiz.
With the A♦ on-side, both 6♣ and 6♠ make (at least when played by South).
The entire field should be in 4♠ on this one, via either the featured auction or a Bergen Raise auction. Universally making 11 tricks. If this board were a fish we’d throw it back in the water.
Somewhat aggressive bidding by South, but she does have good trumps, plus an extra one, shortness and a side-suit Ace, so quite a few plus points.
Fortune favors the brave on this board because although the final contract is an optimistic one it manages to squeak home. West leads the Q♥, overtaken by the King and won by the Ace. It’s easy enough to make this looking at all four hands, but would you make it looking at just two hands? Please see Play Problem # 106.
There comes a point at which a hand becomes just too good for an overcall, and when a Double is required even though the shape of the hand is unsuitable. What is your range for a simple overcall? We often see cards marked 9-16 HCP’s, but we’d suggest that an upper range of 16 is a bit on the low side, we prefer 18 or thereabouts. Having said that, we think that West’s 18-count is too strong for a mere overcall, look at that lovely 6-card suit and all those controls. So, West Doubles, bids a new suit later in the auction announcing a really good hand, and East has enough to take it in.
In 4♠, 11 tricks come home easily enough when the Club finesse works, and the Clubs provide a Heart pitch (though with ♥Kx in the South hand, even the Heart pitch turns out to be unnecessary).
Back to the bidding. South must have been tempting to try a sacrifice in 5♦, her hand does not have much defense against 4♠ and her Partner has preempted. But she did well not to because 5♦ doubled is down one too many for -500. We’d have some sympathy for 5♦, the bid is a bit unlucky … put the K♣ where you’d expect it to be (in the strong hand) and 4♠ makes 10 tricks and 5♦ doubled is down only 300.
E-W stumble into the right spot of 4♠ in an awkward auction. West is way too good for a non-forcing 3♠ bid, but the Spades are not good enough for 4♠, and 3NT seems wrong with a 6-card Spade suit and that dangerous looking Heart holding. So, he manufactures a 3♣ jump shift, and East is end-played into supporting Spades with a doubleton … he can hardly bid No Trump with nothing in the unbid suits.
4♠ is indeed the right contract (at least in theory), making an easy 11 tricks. But suppose that West decides to rebid 3NT instead of that fake jump shift. If South leads a low Diamond East will have an interesting matchpoint decision: - He can guarantee the contract (assuming Spades are 3-2) by going up with the A♦ and playing on Clubs … this ensures 9 tricks, and the best that the defense can to is take their two Diamonds and two Aces; - Or, he can risk his contract by playing the Q♦, going down if the finesse loses and the defense shifts to a Heart … however, if the finesse wins, he can make 11 tricks. Yes, this is one of those matchpoint situations where we must risk our contract in order to avoid a bad result. If we play it safe we’ll make our contract and +400, but that will not be worth many matchpoints if the field is in Spades scoring +420 or +450. So, the only hope for a decent score is to take the risky finesse.
While we’re on the subject of matchpoint tactics, let’s try another one. Suppose again that you are in 3NT and this time South leads a Heart. Rats! Now, with normal play, the Spade bidders are destined to outscore you. They’ll score 10 or 11 tricks (depending on the Diamond finesse) against your own puny 8 or 9 tricks (depending on the Heart break). But that’s with normal play. The only way to salvage some equity is to be abnormal, and so you will take a first-round finesse of the Spade Ten! Your hope is that Spades are 4-1, and that 4♠ is going off with a loser in each suit. So, when you win your Heart trick you take that anti-percentage Spade finesse, and when it wins you’ll cash the A♠ and play on Clubs, hoping to escape with three Heart losers and one Club loser. There’s no point in taking the Diamond finesse, that has to lose if you are to get a good board. Anyway, the good news is that the Spade finesse works, and the bad news is that they split 3-2. But, at least, by taking that Spade finesse, you gave yourself the only chance you had to get a good board.
East’s terrific Hearts make him good value for that 3♠ rebid and E-W get to the same contract that will be reached at every other table (famous last words!).
If we could always be sure to find the right opening lead we could all be world-beaters! At least on this board we can be sure of one thing, which is that we need to make an aggressive lead. Why? Our 4 small Hearts and useless Spades both warn us that Declarer might have a lot of tricks and that we should probably be grabbing our tricks while the grabbing is good. Dr Goodlead led the A♦ and shifted to a Club, which was 11 tricks for Declarer, probably be common result at your Wednesday Game.
The only way to hold Declarer to 10 tricks is for North to lead a Club and get a Diamond shift at Trick Two. We’d consider this somewhat unlikely. Sure, North might lead a Club on the go, but how is South supposed to know not to attempt to cash the Q♣ before shifting to a Club? One thought is for North to try an opening lead of the Club Seven, which South will realize cannot be from the King. So, on the actual hand, she’ll have no problem shifting to a Diamond at Trick Two … but on other layouts Dummy will go down with the K♣ and it may seem appropriate to try to give Partner a ruff or a trump promotion.
All things considered, we would expect a majority of 650’s in the E-W column.
South surely was tempted to balance with 3♥ here … her side appears to have about half the points and she has an undisclosed 6-card Heart suit and shortness in the opponents’ suit.
It turns out that 3♥ is down one for -50 (it’s highly unlikely that E-W will find a Double), so whether or not the balancing 3♥ was the winning call all depends on the success of 2♠. We think that this contract will go down more often than not … it’s hard to imagine 2♠ making unless Declarer successfully guesses the J♣ … and even then the trump break provides some serious handling problems. Our hats go off to any Declarer who somehow managed to get 8 tricks playing in a Spade contract.
With 13 opposite 13, E-W have no making game contract, and any pair which somehow managed to play it in a Diamond part-score will score extremely well. The featured auction did not manage that, but it was not unreasonable. At his third turn West could not bid 3NT, of course, and felt he was too good for just 3♦, so he bid his Heart fragment, trying for the 4-3 Heart fit.
4♥ is the only game which has a chance of making, needing just 3-3 in Hearts, but it fails (probably by two tricks) when the suit breaks 4-2.
South is always going to at least game with that hand, and she decides to get there via a 2♣ bid. She certainly had other choices available, please see the Bidding Quiz.
10 tricks and +420 for N-S at every table?
South could have bid 1NT over 1♠ but sensibly waited for the reopening Double and the Penalty Pass. Even though North has an ideal hand for such a venture (see Bidding Quiz), the defense must be on its toes to get the necessary 8 tricks (+300 and a good board) … if the defense slips up and scores only 7 tricks the resulting +100 will be poor indeed when N-S can make a part-score easily enough. Here’s one successful defense: Club lead, won by the Ace Club ruff Diamond to the Ace Heart to the Jack and the Ace Diamond to the King Club ruff Diamond ruff Cash K♥ Heart to South’s Queen At this point, the defense has scored 6 tricks and is certain to score two more trumps tricks for the required 8 tricks and +300.
With no fewer than 9 Spades West can bid no less than 4♠. The Double is for penalty, of course, but what would 4NT by North have meant? We’d bet that most partnerships have not discussed this uncommon situation, and the three possible interpretations which come to mind are: - To play - Ace-asking (not Roman Key Card as no suit has been bid) - Attempting to find a fit at the 5-level (or 6-level), probably based on a two-suiter
We estimate that the third interpretation is more likely to be useful, but that is not to say we would try the bid in the heat of battle without prior discussion. It would be quite inconvenient if Partner was on a different wave-length and passed 4NT! If he did pass, we’d predict that West will be leading a Spade! And it won’t be his 4th best, either!
North’s sequence shows invitational values with 4 Spades (please see Bidding Quiz).
Against 2NT there does not seem to be much percentage in leading that broken Heart suit into the Heart bidder. The J♠ through Dummy’s strength could work, but a low Club seems like the most obvious choice. The defense will then cash 4 Clubs (Dummy pitching a Spade, and Declarer a Heart) and it will be now be up to East to find the killing shift. A Heart or a Spade? The winner is the Spade shift, attacking Declarer’s communications while the Heart suit is still blocked. Now, whether Declarer wins this shift in her hand or on the board, she can get the Diamonds going (getting another Spade back when she loses a Diamond), but will be unable to untangle her tricks and enjoy the long Diamonds and the K♥. This fine defense holds Declarer to just 7 tricks.
Well, South certainly bid a lot on this one! But we don’t think that 3♣ was completely unreasonable, after all the opponents had both limited their hands and Partner had to have some values. North then bid the same values herself when she tried 3NT.
Actually, 3NT was just a Diamond spot (the 8 with North) away from being a half-reasonable contract, but as it is, and with the Club King offside, it can go down three if East leads the A♦ and shifts to a Spade at Trick Two. The A♦ lead is easy enough, but will East find the right shift? Maybe not! To East’s eyes a Spade shift might appear highly dangerous and he could well fatally choose a Heart … now, the contract is cold!
We would imagine that West was always prepared to go to 4♠ sooner or later, and, if that was the case, then he might have considered just bidding it directly in order to deprive the opponents of bidding space. Offbeat? Absolutely! Potentially misleading to Partner? Yes, that too! But the wednesdaygame.com site is intended as wholesome entertainment, so we are not specifically advocating 4♠ (over 1♥), merely mentioning it as a naughty alternative to the squeaky clean 1♠ overcall. The way that the featured auction developed, North had an easy Double of 4♠, and South was quite right to pull that Double to 5♣. As for North, she must have been tempted to try the slam but opted for 5♥ instead of the lower-scoring 5♣.
Against 5♥, West no doubt leads the A♠, ruffed by Declarer. We would suggest playing on Clubs next, and when that suit breaks 2-2, it will come down to the trump guess. West has lots of Spades so we would play him for Heart shortness … that works, too, and 12 tricks are made.
Declarer Play Footnote: Suppose that you stumbled into 6♣. Deep Finesse says you can make 12 tricks. How? The winning line is: Ruff the opening Spade lead Low Club to the King (West does best to duck) Heart finesse A♥ pitching a Spade (West ruffs with the A♣ or not, it makes no difference) Is this line double dummy? Probably not … once West has made the good play of ducking the first round of Clubs it seems like the only chance.
A bold 3NT bid by North, no doubt she was encouraged by the running Hearts and the slow Diamond stop (that Q♦ rates to be more useful in 3NT than in 4♥).
4♥ has no chance, but 3NT, while not a great contract, is not completely without hope. If the defense cashes 4 Clubs on the go, they can sit back and wait for the 5th trick. But surely East will lead Partner’s Diamond suit. Declarer plays low from Dummy, hoping that East has the K♦ or that West will not find the deadly Club shift. This is unlikely to work against an alert West if the K♦ is indeed in that hand … he’ll count 9 likely tricks for Declarer and make the obvious Club shift. The good news for Declarer is that West may not be alert!
We seem to have spent half of this week’s Hand Analysis Section sympathizing with poor final contracts, and here we go again! But first a side-trip. Suppose that the auction had started as follows: South West North East 1♥ 1♠ 2♠ ?? North’s 2♠ shows invitational values with support for Hearts. Now what by East? We wouldn’t bid 4♠ here (though many would!) based on our 10-card fit … no, we’d be happy with just 3♠, backing off from our Total Trick level because of our soft values and depressing lack of distribution.
But, in the featured auction, after North’s 3♠ bid (a Splinter showing Heart support, game-values and shortness in Spades) that luxury was not available. It hardly seemed right for East to withhold 5-card support, so who could fault him for going to 4♠? Not us. Alas for E-W, 4♠ doubled is one level too high and goes for 800.
Yes, of course, East could have tried 3NT. But based on the raunchy preempts that our own Partners are making these days, we’d say that 3NT is against the odds, he requires a good Club suit and maybe a 2-2 break as well. So, as East, we pass 3♣.
Over to South. Yes, 3♥ seems pretty clear to us, look at that lovely shape and the benevolent vulnerability.
Next, we cast our attention to North. Partner has bid 3♥ all on her own, and there she sits with 11 of the not-so-finest. Is this a 4♥ bid? We don’t think so … please see the Bidding Quiz.
It turns out that 4♥ is too high, it requires both red suit finesses to succeed and only one of them works. So, full marks to N-S, both for balancing with 3♥ and for not pushing on to 4♥.
South may have only 6 HCP’s but we’d rate her as full value for that 3♣ bid, based on those lovely honors in Partner’s first bid suit.
3♣ will make 9 or 10 tricks. The defense can always get 4 tricks via the double dummy defense of a Diamond lead from East (yeah, right!), followed by a later Heart underlead by West, getting East in to provide a Diamond ruff. On less imaginative defenses, 10 tricks are possible with the correct Diamond guess.
West’s 3♦ was a limit raise … yes, it’s a tad light in terms of HCP’s, but the extra Diamond must count for something, and there was no good alternative.
Against 3NT, if South leads a Spade the defense can come to 4 fast tricks and a good board. But most Souths will surely lead Partner’s suit, and that gives Declarer an overtrick.
In an uncontested auction South would have made a simple 2♠ raise (or a constructive Bergen Raise if those were her methods), but with the 3♥ interference South must stretch a little to 3♠ in order to show Partner that support. Perhaps North was tempted to bid more than 4♠, her hand is certainly rather fine, and slam is a definite possibility.
How good is the slam? Tough to assess, but not too bad. But we’ll bet that bidding just game and making 12 tricks will be enough for a good matchpoint score. Here’s one line of play that racks up 12 tricks: A♥ ruffed by Declarer Cash A♦ and K♦ Ruff a Diamond Spade finesse Ruff a Diamond Spade finesse Draw the last trump Now, Declarer loses a Club and it’s 12 tricks.
The Far Side: Yes, we’d be tempted to bid 4♥ directly over 1♠ opposite our passed hand Partner. If East does takes things to the max with a 4♥ preempt what should South bid next? We’d bid 4♠, though somewhat less comfortably than we’d bid 3♠ over 3♥.
In 4♠ there is the danger of losing a trick in each suit. The key suit, of course, is the trump suit, Declarer must protect himself against a 3-0 split by cashing the correct high honor first. Which opponent is most likely to have the 3 trumps? Yes, of course, it’s South … North sounds like she might have 10 red cards so if anyone is lacking in the Spade department it’s likely to be her. So, when Declarer gets in he’ll lay down the A♠ and be rewarded for his thoughtful play when North shows out.
This is a hand that is so easy to bungle! It looks altogether too simple. That’s the time to ask ourselves “What can possibly go wrong?”
Yes, many Norths will start with just 3♠ but we rather like that 4♠ bid … true, that bid tends to be made with an 8-card suit, but here we have compensating offense in terms of the void and the side 4-card suit, so we’d go to the max. 4♠ will certainly buy the contract, and the favorable lie of the cards will bring home 11 tricks.
And if North starts with a mere 3♠? That too will likely buy the contract but it won’t get the game bonus!
When they open the bidding and we have a decent hand with a 5-card major, it’s almost a reflex action to overcall in the major. But not a good idea here, the Heart suit is so pathetic that it almost looks like a 4-card suit. We suggest Double here, keeping more options open. North’s jump to 2♠ showed something in the good 9 to bad 12 range … she’d have preferred a 5th Spade or a better suit, nobody would say that 2♠ is perfect! But we do like the Double of 3♦!
East has a painful time declaring 3♦ doubled! It’ll go for at least -300 and -500 (and a zero) is possible on this defense: A♠ cashed Three rounds of Clubs cashed, ending in North A 4th round of Clubs, promoting a trump trick On the 4th round of Clubs Declarer has no useful pitch … he’ll ruff low, overruffed by South. That will be 5 tricks for the defense with another Heart and another trump to come. Down three!
It was as well for N-S to get their +500 against 3♦ doubled because they can make 3NT for +400. We’re not saying that it’s a great contract but it does happen to make and no doubt one or two pairs will stumble into it.
Too bad that the majority of Wednesday Gamers will not get to play this high-numbered board! It’s an instructive hand, please see the Bidding Quiz.
It turns out that the grand slam makes on the Diamond finesse, but N-S did the next best thing by playing in 6NT instead of 6♠. Surely, +1440 will be worth most of the matchpoints.
This one depends on the E-W methods and we’ll refer you to the Bidding Quiz. For now, let’s just say that 3NT is a reasonable enough contract which makes 9 tricks.
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